A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!
Thursday, May 02, 2019
Updated 1 PM - Iowa Flooding, Tornadoes and Tropical Disturbances....Must be May. Will Update Throughout the Day
Seems the Tropical Disturbance is doing lunch on South Beach.
Low chances but hey it's hanging out.
Note the BIG weather is in the Dixie Alley.
Flooding problems going to linger with that set up.
Also it's snowing up north so... snow melt adds to the flooding.
Miami Bimini Tropical Disturbance 10%
It's there just not something to worry on.
But it should be a reminder... it's May.
So I'm going to put this out there for you to see.
The real threat for strong weather is in the Plains.
Southern Plains to be exact.
More so flooding in Iowa....
...and that will in time move down the rivers.
Flooding is going to remain a problem for some time.
Add Twisters into that mix you have trouble.
And yes we have an area we are watching.
Something is off the Florida coast.
It will move up along the coast.
There is a brief window for development of some kind.
DaBuh explains this well.
It's that time of year.
But whatever it is...
...it is small in comparison.
A reminder....
Like that song.
Someone is knocking...
Hurricane Season is knocking.
I'll update later as models do their thing... or not.
As things develop or not.
Now is the time to watch for SALES.
When Hurricane Supplies go on SALE....
...BUY THEM ON SALE.
Stock them up as best as you can.
It will help later in the year.
Because trust me someone is knocking...
Many someones.
These are some of the names that will be knocking.
Put the weather in motion...
There is something down there ... a tropical reminder.
What should you do?
Best thing you can do is get a plan.
Begin buying hurricane supplies.
And if you live where weather is flaring up today.
The NHC has their own way of doing things and we wait to see what they may or may not say later today. Why aren't they saying something earlier? It's very far away, actually, over a thousand miles off the coast of Mexico and the sun has not even begun to rise on that part of the world yet. Not your normal early May Epac storm that forms close in off the coast of Panama.
Luckily we have many ways to see 90E
Water gets colder out there.
It has a small window for development.
More on that later.
Closer to the East Coast.
This area isn't going away anytime soon.
Always watch the tail end of fronts.
Always but especially in May.
Pic above yesterday.
Below today.
So true.
Stalled out and hanging around.
A set up for possible trouble.
Names for the 2018 Atlantic Season below.
Down below watching swirls.
Just for fun.
It's May I'm allowed to be funny..
..and just enjoy a weather loop.
Cute little swirl I'm watching.
Like great wall art....
Sub Polar Something.
There are now 12 fissures.
This is not a lava flow down the side of a volcano as much as fissures suddenly forming beneath a random home and oozing up lava that pushes and melts everything in it's path. Trees explode as they are heated to some of the highest temperatures on earth that are moving the way a strong Haboob moves across the desert, a dust storm in Oklahoma except here they are sometimes called "curtains of fire" on the move......
...my day starts early during the Hurricane Season.
Always looking for ideas.
On the fashion front it seems ...
...Schiaparelli Pink is in this year!
Pretty sure if women were in charge of the colors at the NHC we'd get a bit more creative and less boring than yellow, orange and red. Nice little Hi Low Hemline dress Stephanie Abrams was wearing today. Kind of looked like an updated Can Can dress made for Tomorrow Land at Disney which should really have a Weather World...
Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter
Ps Lightening this dark volcanic discussion with some music for Mike:
5 Weeks to Go Until the Atlantic Hurricane Season of 2018. Patterns to watch...in the short term.
Today is a stormy day.
From Florida to the Carolinas.
Large storm system.
Leftover from a cold front in April.
A week away from May.
Another front on the way.
You know what dangling fronts mean?
Possible tropical development.
We are a week or two a way from really worrying on this set up but it's time to start wondering how and when the 2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season will begin. It's also worth noting that the EPAC system begins in less than one month on May 15, 2018. It's not too early to start preparing for the 2018 Hurricane Season. If you have a blue tarp on your roof (and many people in Florida still do) then you most likely know the dangers of the hurricane season. To those of you not directly affected by last year it's worth noting this year will be busy but that doesn't mean named storms will make landfall where last year's did so it's worth staying vigilant as we are still in a busy time period.
Moisture is moving West slowly on one level and tropical air is being pulled North by cold fronts still on the move. That convergence of energy often sees weak subtropical storms forming off the SE coast. Most of those systems go quietly out to sea, however some end up affecting areas along the coastline from Florida to the Carolinas much like today's strong weather system. It's an area worth watching and many are quietly watching it.
Long range models have even tossed up a few possibilities far off in early May. Okay May is not so far away. Note @DaDabuh has been tweeting on possibilities today.
So let's look at today's satellite loop shown above.
Spring Flooding, Severe Weather & Speculation on El Nino VS La Nina - Tornadoes Possible Today
I could pretty much say "Nuff Said"
Fronts moving West to East across the nation are not a stimulus for tropical development. Sometimes, an early season storm forms at the tail end of a cold front. Not the current front that faded away just before making it to Miami, but the one behind it might be worth watching as it gets further South than the last. We are on a roller coaster still with cold fronts, a carousel in the atmosphere pulling each up and down over and over. Tornadoes are possible today in several places.
http://www.weather.gov/
Put your Zipcode in and find your weather.
Spring Flooding is still the main news with concerns for more severe weather that is typical this time of year as warm air from the GOM slams into fast moving cold fronts. The big question is if the fronts are moving fast or if they slow down enough to mitigate potential problems. This is Spring still and every year this time of year people begin to look to see if there is an El Nino or no Nino or maybe even a La Nina. I'm not sure what it is, perhaps the sexy name, but it captivates bored tropical meteorologists into waxing poetic online about possibilities that are too far out to be certain. Note if TIME magazine has not put El Nino on the cover of their current issue it's probably not a huge issue and something meteorologists can argue over endlessly while throwing darts at empty hurricane tracking maps. Don't kid yourself... hardcore addicts still have hurricane tracking maps. They may not admit it in public, but in private they show them off comparing size, type and quality as if they are.... baseball cards and autographed bats. That said I have a magnetic one, a cork board one and some have much bigger shinier ones than me.
One Month to Go til Hurricane Season. May 1st.. Just Breathe and Watch the Patterns and Just Breathe.
May 1st awakens every tropical weather person to reverie every time they see a wave off Africa or convection in the Caribbean. Today marks a month until the start of the Atlantic Hurricane Season and more importantly 15 days until the start of the EPAC season where convection tends to wrap itself up into named storms first. From year to year this can change, but it's a pattern and Climatography dictates watching both sides of Central America this time of year. Storms form from convection that lingers on both sides of the Isthmus of Panama and there can only be one winner. If anything forms in the EPAC it would be Adrian and in the Atlantic Bret. Keep that in mind and don't start asking "what if it crosses over" before anything even forms.
I can tell it's getting closer to Hurricane Season when chatter online increases and people squabble over nothing except details that matter mostly to the Devil. To be clear we are already on the B storm and I'm not going to second guess or criticize or high five the NHC for their naming the system in the Atlantic Arlene. Life goes on, let's move on...
Watch where the moisture connects.
Watch where it flows.
Watch patterns set up.
Note the convection in the Gulf of Mexico link up with the frontal boundary pushing East. Watch what happens when that convection makes it down into the Caribbean and people online begin to bicker as to the possibilities for an early May storm. I don't watch for the storm, I watch the bickering and hype as signs of what will be down the line. Weather models are fun, but not as much fun as meteorologists. When people get hungry they get nasty, competitive and many are hungry for a "real hurricane season" whatever that is - - - as we haven't had one in a while. Last year was busy and yet it was not your normal Hurricane Season. Storms formed and faded away as if some Weather Witch was putting a spell on them to die an early death and yet they came back over and over. Colin and Hermine are probably best remembered for being Invests that fought to get a name and both made landfall.
In the rear view mirror and the lens of history 2016 turned out to be a rather active hurricane season despite it's preliminary reviews in March and April of 2016. Remember that when throwing in the towel before the fight has begun or giving up half way through while blaming the moon and everything else for killing off the hurricanes. It takes time and time will always tell in the end.
Look at the map above ....
...you see the usual suspects.
Storms formed in the Eastern Atlantic for a change and most swam out to sea as fish storms usually do. Storms formed in the Caribbean and some went West and others took that popular route towards Florida. Julia formed over Florida and I got to intersect her path while driving South to visit family and friends after seeing Julia first. Everything in life is timing, especially storm chasing. Julia may not have been strong but the wind blew through my hair, it rearranged things, caused flooding and in general was an appetizer to the area that was to experience Hurricane Matthew down the road.
A look back at Matthew with early discussion and long range models.
Then Invest 97L formed into Matthew and odd things began to happen. Who can remember the photogenic Hurricane Matthew spinning, building, partying just off the coast of South America? Which model was right? Which way would he go? Would that displaced convection hurt him or help him or was it really an irrelevant question in the end? Meteorology students will study Matthew for a long time I believe.
In the end Matthew flirted with Miami.
Traveled up the coast a bit to the East of Julia's track.
The powers that be debated if this was landfall.
Some moments from Matthew.
You decide? Looks like landfall to me.
But did the center of the eye make landfall?
Devil is in the details.
So are statistics it seems.
So while hearing early discussion on the 2017 Hurricane Season I would suggest you take it all with a lot of sea salt and watch it play out in real time. El Nino years often bring the biggest hurricanes (Andrew, Betsy to name two) and each El Nino is different and sometimes things that come together fast also fade away as fast. Mother Nature often has the last word the way she did with Hurricane Matthew.
So enjoy your favorite version of my theme of the morning with regard to the Hurricane Season that is now officially a month away, even though we are looking for the B storm already.
Just breathe............
As for me I've got things to do and here and there I loop a loop.
I learned much from 2016. I smelled a scent I liked but balked at buying it as it was expensive and sometimes you like a scent and then after a while you rarely use it ... and well I didn't buy it. Big mistake....
I really loved this scent, but a few weeks later when I finally decided to buy it ... it was gone.
People bought it up and sold it on Ebay for way more than it was at Saks. Sigh.
So this trip to Miami I bought a scent I liked as I learned a good lesson.
I wish I had the Orange Bitters from Jo Malone more ... but what can I do?
Except to live and learn and move on and now I'm wearing Magnolia Star today.
It's a nice scent and comes with a fake flower and as we know packaging is everything.
The magnolia trees here are just starting to bloom so I'll be in tune with the seasons.
Weather people love to bicker because they love weather and are passionate about it both in real time and in the rear view mirror. It's part and parcel of the Hurricane Season. For some reason people argue less over blizzards and tornadoes than they do hurricanes. Be warned we are moving into the Mean Season and it's called the "mean season" for a reason.
Besos BobbiStorm
Add me on Twitter at @bobbistorm
Ps. Yesterday was a banner day for me. I had a son-in-law in Budapest, a son in La Paz and my youngest son flying off to Madrid. Everyone's traveling and I'm happy to be home today, this week and who knows where I'll be the week after that. Wherever I am I'll be watching the weather and blogging. My brother in Greece is closer to my youngest son today than I am ... go figure. He's an artist, he is passionate about ART in any form. He writes, he makes films, he taught himself the flute and loves the harmonica. He did a short film for a project for a school there named Lord Byron School and he used the brilliant idea of using Lord Byron in the film. It's relaxing, creative and makes you want to just lie on the beach and breathe and ponder beauty in all forms both literature, nature and of course the beauty of people. Enjoy it.
Can you tell we are related ?? Beautiful, especially for anyone who loves beauty and the harmonica.
Location: Miami, Raleigh, Crown Heights, Florida, United States
Weather Historian. Studied meteorology and geography at FIU. Been quoted in Wall Street Journal, Washington Post & everywhere else... Lecturer, stormchaser, writer, dancer. If it's tropical it's topical ... covering the weather & musing on life. Follow me on Twitter @ https://twitter.com/#!/BobbiStorm
