11 PM... BERTHA!! Updated! FL Panhandle to Mississippi Pay Attn.... Expect Surprises.

Main point is the pressure is dropping.

generally that's a sign it's doing well..

more to come Monday

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From Zoom Earth

Will add in data after 11 PM comes out.

Recon found proof to upgrade.

from Earthnull alone I knew it'd be upgraded before 11 PM.

Meanwhile in Raleigh it's been a night.

Have had a crazy storm in Raleigh tonight.

Loud, heavy thunder and pounding rain...

for over 25 minutes...

Not flooding by me but in some places.

Nothing much has changed since 8 AM

I spoke on this online and in the blog a few times in that it's common for a large, developing Tropical Depression to sometimes have more than one possible center or the center seems to relocate a bit. The 11 AM Discussion explains that the center was relocated a bit to the South, yet the general game plan remains the same. They are calling it relocated vs movement. There have been some variables in models and that will happen until  this TD has a stronger defined center. They also opened the door for a sheared Bertha giving an assymetrical look to her down the road and in truth this is all subject to change depending on the timing of TD 2 on "wrapping up" better and I do think that is currently going on. I'd say that is a long run on sentence, and yet this process is long and rambling at times with moments of sudden pulsations. 

Another view of  TD2

Looks more consolidated than earlier.

Vs two blobs there is banding...

in multiple directions.

Center more solid, bulked up.

She's over very warm water.

Bathtub Hot so remember that!

I'll update at 5 Pm or when NHC blinks.

Thanks for reading....

...keep reading if you did not earlier

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TD 2 spinning close in.

This is a TEXT BOOK example of El Nino systems.

Close in Development.

Clinging to the coastline.

Cradled in the curve of the Gulf

Clining close to the Big Bend of Florida 

and yet its got it's eyes on Texas

And in between many coastal cities.
Many people.

There's the models.

There's the rain forecast.

Don't try to understand everything.

Follow the advice of the NHC

NWS

Weather Alerts on your phone.

Local Experts.

Sometimes these systems play possum.

Hope this isn't this happening.

Don't get distracted by this image.

Pay attention to the RADAR

I know... it's complicated!

Takes a village of models to properly forecast weather and a group of forecasters to interpret them into an easy to understand forecast & put out graphics such as the Cone. Tropical Depressions turning into Tropical Storm are often filled with surprises that pop up along the way. If there wasn't dry air and negative conditions where it's located between two highs causing "issues" than this would be one for the history books in ways. Close in systems can leave historical impacts even when they look wonky. So never turn your back on them, don't ignore them because they don't look great on some satellite image. Heating of the day comes along and storms explode somewhere far from the current center of the current storm, pay attention but don't ignore the actual center. And, they can begin to lunge for the coast and/or stay in the water carefully avoiding the coast and strengthen.  

This is not a long tracking tropical wave that we have a good feel for and a history of how it seems to respond to enviornmental conditions thrown at it..........it's not that sort of storm. Forming from an Upper Level Low means out of the gate this wants to spin and yet they have structual issues while forming with regard to convection especially as there is dry air to the North and it's squished between two Highs.

And, then there is my friend DaBuh who has some second sense when it comes to seeing where things will go and getting straight to the heart of the matter and a while back... even before this post he was pointing to where the current track is and where the storms are currently popping up. So yeah that happened!

Will update throughout the day. But, these are my basic thoughts:

1. Pay Attention to the NHC, NWS, Wxr Alerts on Apps (turned on) & local experts.

2. Expect that somewhere along the way there will be surprises. 

3. Stay prepared and aware and never under estimate a close in Gulf system as they can be a bull in a china shop...somewhere, someone is going to have trouble.

4. Keep your eye on the short term forecast and know the long term one may change, so stay aware.

stay tuned updating in real time....

...as real data comes in the NHC updates.