Blobs & Convection in Atlantic Today. BAVI Stealing the Show in Pacific! El Nino & Hurricane Season. July Climbs the Mtn to August.... Do Models Dream?

 

Note the end is wedged in the beginning here today.

Areas of blobs and current convection 

Hard to find inspiration in early July when SAL is in charge and El Nino is building it's case for being one for the history books. I don't like to "hype" as much as tell it like it is and in truth there are possibilities but they are low chances barely worth mentioning. Then again, the pattern has shifted and we are no longer in the dead heat of the Heat Dome in the Carolinas back to a normal Carolina Summer pattern meaning it's not so horrible at night with a light breeze ... perfect for going out and having a drink on a rooftop bar. In the morning it's a drop moderate but warms up all day fast and by late afternoon the clouds build up and they let loose with some thunder and lightning and awesome drenching rains. Ps...every Summer trip to the beach ends with late day thunderheads chasing the masses away. 

When a pattern flips, that's a sign. But what is it really a sign of ???

Shows we are moving up the graphic for Hurricane Season, where little peaks of historic action happen on their way to moving on up the range of possibilities into August. Generally in an El Nino Season August is the start of action. SAL generally .... wanes and stronger waves are able to maintain motion and their existence to take advantage of any weak chance that something could form and at least get a yellow circle going. Note the red moves UP fast as if waves need to be mountain climbers!!

As for El Nino...
...a good primer in why El Nino
impacts our Hurricane Season
with info vs hype.

Click on that as it's good discussion.

With good graphics.

Mike LIVE this morning....
...always easier typing listening to Mike talk.

Old habit...............

Mike explaining why not to pay too much attn...
....to this graphic.

Models have been wonky....
..over excited over next to nothing.

Does show areas likely to develop....
....if they could.

Another screenshot from Mike & X

As I said the rains have returned!

Sadly it's hot hot hot out West.

Colorado to Montana... crazy heat.

And BAVI is the star of the show today.

Reed Timmer out there chasing.

Intensifying, an eye you can fall into...

IF you zoom in there....
...you can see the eye wall stacked.

That's the main story today.

That and the pattern flip....

Last but not least.

There's a BLOB in the BOC

Hard to ignore.

Mike sees blobs everywhere...

...really lol but seriously

We have all been watching it quietly.

In any normal year...

...this would be a candidate for a name.

Low level fame, weak BOC system.

Or maybe get into the Gulf

Check that blob out...bright red!

Also a nice low lat wave train.

And a candidate for Subtropical thoughts....

...I really don't want to dream on subtropicals.

But in an El Nino Summer you got Slim Pickens!

Suddenly Slim looks cute lol....

Models are machines.

They are told to "fetch" a hurricane.

They dream...
Yes models dream... Bobbi does not.

Does NOAA dream?

Maybe so...

Okay I may dream on snow and cold fronts.

But check out those little red Ls

Especially in the Gulf close in... 

Mid July

Far down the tropical road still.

Or off the coast of Carolina.

Areas from the Gulf to the Cape OBX

on both sides of Florida need watching

in El Nino years

Have a great day!!

Sweet Dreams

BobbiStorm

Looking back....
..as someone who lived in LA in the 80s

I think ppl were more crazy then than the 60s
80s I'm sure more fun than the 60s...

I'd say what was everyone on ...
..but I kind of know ;)

I was high on LA
with dreams of Lemon Meringue Pie