Does a Piece of Energy From THE FRONT Get Trapped Near the Coast? Maybe, Small Possibility. Thoughts on "The Blob" N of PR. And High Pressure On the Move....For July 4th!!! Gonna Be a Hot One!

 

Why the odd look for this area of interest with the 10% X on the edge of the yellow circle? Simple, its in the process of fully coming off the coast of NC as the front plops into the water near the Gulfstream and the models see some possible development. The circle is the area of formation where IF it forms it could form. The general set up weather wise is that a strong, heat dome sets up over the Carolinas, VA, DC (basically the East Coast) and it gets nudged to the South as it's drifting out to sea.... the High expands and shoves it back a bit towards parts of the Florida coast. 

Now that is the set up. If you were a screenwriter these notes would be on a board with ideas, many ideas for various scenes. It's currently more a tropical dream, or even a subtropical dream and with the "feels like" temperatures flirting with 109 degrees often it's totally understandable that the EURO and everyone else is now dreaming of a tropical system that would cool us all off and provide our farms some much needed rain.  Do models dream? Good question. Well we know the GFS dreams so perhaps now the EURO is dreaming with higher chances than the NHC is conservatively giving it. 

Water vapor, Ye Olde black & white one...

...always awesome for sniffing out energy.

The front was fun!

Strong, heavy rain.

Needed rain.

Cooler temperatures!

Cooler meaning barely 90 today ...

...vs 98 degrees. 

Currently we see where weather is flaring up.

In this 5 day map below...

..note the placement of the High.

It's like that relative who came for dinner....

...stayed over night.

Has not left 3 days later.

It's that guy at the Chinese Buffet...

... piling his food high up on his plate.

Takes that "all you can eat" sign seriously!

The High is hungry.

The high wants to expand......

...way beyond Bermuda.

It's moving to Florida!

Maybe visit Texas (j/k)

Now let's talk about the blob.

The blob everyone is asking about.

On Mike's Weather Page...

...it's SCREAMS "look at me!!"

Beware of the blob!

Note the long frontalboundary

Part drifts off... part lingers near the coast.

There is the blob below.
It's mixing it up with an ULL
ULL tickles it and sparks convection.

This is why it's so bright and blobby.

That's an inside joke but in a mood.

Seriously tho the MIMIC shows the story.

1. Note the front in orange that has moved off the Carolina Coast.

2. Next note part of it is moving out to sea (to the right)
3. Now note part of it is lingering near the coast. (yes saying "note" too much)

4. See the blue (dry air high pressure) pressing down on the top of the orange?

5. See the wave train stretched low from Africa to South America.

6. Blob is less visible here & part of that energy is being sucked off into the flow to it's North.

7. Obviously some of the wave moves West with that flow into the Carib.. maybe EPAC.

8. The Bermuda High moves West towards Florida.

9. Pushes any remnant moisture of the front into Florida. The Carolinas bake with record heat.

That's really the whole story.... 

Yes there's a chance. 

Heck according to the EURO (once King) there is a big chance.

AI models backed off on it... will see what the next few runs show.

We will see what really happens in real time.

So was we say in Carolina: "Whatchy'all doin for July 4th??" 

Being American and being this year's set up we basically are all celebrating the whole week I suppose as many are taking long vacations I have noticed. (I said noticed, not note)

Stay aware of the weather at the beaches and the rip currents and thunder may roar as temperatures climb, depending on your location.

It's gonna be a hot one!

So stay hydrated!

Besos BobbiStorm