Updated 5 PM - No Name Storm Now Invest 90L - 50% in 7 Day & 40% in 2 Day - Flooding a Big Concern. Carolina Hurricanes Win Big in an El Nino Year. Something to Think On?

Invest 90L

We now have Spaghetti Models!

Starting here with the orange X that marks the spot that the NHC is using as their starting point. The models need a place to begin, and that X is basically it. There's a 50% chance in the 7 day. Models are coming out, planes are scheduled to go in on Wednesday and we will see what we will see. Regardless of a name, this is a huge flooding scenario and could be deadly, destructive and disastrous even as a No Name Storm or Invest or even as Tropical Depression. Texas has been to this rodeo before and they don't laugh off this scenario just because it's not a hurricane. 

That's a wide area of concern....

...possible formation zone.

This will impact many with or without a name.

Due to the curvature of the Texas Coast....

...this could briefly get out over water.

Before moving across the South..

Carolinas would love some rain ....

drought has killed plants, crops & streams be evaporating

You can see there's a spin there.

Looking at Dvorak since it's an Invest.

Trying to find the heart of the matter....

...do Invests have a heart?

An early look at what is under the hood.

Especially as this is a rain bomb in ways.

Let's look at the Water Vapor Loop.

You can see clearly it's got something going on.

It definitely got our attention!

A stalled out front...

..will funnel the moisture as you can see above.

From Zoom Earth you can see the purple dot.

Invest 90L 
You can see rain is already falling.

IF this develops.

If it develops a center ....

It will deliver rain to areas already swamped.

Well literally as there are swampy areas in play.

Bayous in play amp up the flooding.

As for models ........there is model for every possible track you can imagine. The EURO has been bullish. AI models go both ways, some stronger and some less strong. Already there is a model that sees a Hurricane. I would pull that back a bit, but let's say we could get Tropical Storm Arthur. We could get a TD. But the big problem is we get flooding across a wide area where it's currently raining, before torrential tropical rain arrives and lingers.

EURO says it gets out over the water.

Currently EURO says that.

It's been fairly consistent tho...

For now know it's an Invest.

For now know NHC is on top of it.

NWS is on top of it.

Make sure people in that area...

..are also on top of it!

I'll update in the morning...

If you didn't read already, keep reading.

***8 AM Monday ***

Just to get this a li'l out of my system.

The Carolina WON...

...the Stanley Cup!

in an El Nino Year!

So.... wouldn't count Canes out.

Sports wise & weather wise

Gotta love the Hurricane Flag there :)

20% in the 2 day.

30% now in the 7 day.

Could emerge over water....

...IF it does.... it'll get a name.

If it doesn't can still get fame.

This region is used to No Name Storms.

Add in cities built in bayous....

...tend to flood badly. 

Places like Houston...

just to name one.

The truth is this week's weather is not about a hurricane in the Atlantic or even a Tropical Storm, but tropical, torrential rains tracking over the same area stuck between a stalled front and a huge High Pressure that keeps the rain stuck over parts of the Deep South. I typed "stuck" twice on purpose. Can Carolina get in on this rainfall? Time will tell it's a very strong High Pressure. And, in Mississippi and other nearby areas it's already raining. So you get rain on top of rain on top of more rain. And, often sadly, these set ups tend to overproduce!

This is the rainfall signature.

The footprint of where flooding rains can happen.

These two posts tell the tale.

Josh is already getting sexy tropical rain.

Anyone who has lived in Key West...

...knows this sound.

"pounding rain" on a tin roof at night.

Wild sound really.

Leaves you with one big smile!

Next look at that High.

Well the Highs...

The 4 Highs.... 

....making up a blocking high pressure.

And the 3 Ls 

You can see where the front is...

...you can see where the high pressure is below..

Just to be clear showing it here.

Saharan Dust and the HUGE HIGH

everything is dry.

So dry that Miami has a HEAT advisory.

Not the basketball kind.

My brother sent me an emergency alert...

..warning of HEAT Advisory in Miami.

I told him:
"thank you for participating"

It has to be really bad....

..for Miami to put up a warning.

As for the ITCZ....

it is so suppressed!!

Compressed.

African waves may....

... get into the EPAC

Westbound and down...

And that's the concerns on weather today and tomorrow and most of this week. Can Arthur get named from this mess of rain? Only if it develops a low pressure areas and currently it's murky and hard to find one but the NHC is doing their job. The NWS is doing it's job.  Everyone should pay close attention to Heat Alerts and Flood Warnings of all kinds.

And the EURO is bullish.

It suddenly wants to put do the GFS

The GFS is quiet.

El Ninos bring topsy turvy weather....

El Ninos bring the Stanley Cup to Raleigh.

2006 and 2026.

Time will tell.

Really nothing more to say...

..except I'm watching it.

And oddly enjoying the process...

..because it's like a chocolate in a box.

You never know what you're gonna get...

Name or no name.

Flooding is a huge concern!

Stay tuned.

Will see what evolves.

BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on X

X mostly weather

(unless Panthers or Hurricanes win big)

sound up if you really want ....