2026 Hurricane Season Begins! Talk on El Nino Is Valid But It's NOT a Free Pass or Get Out of Jail, FREE Card to Ignore Hurricane Season. Only Takes 1. Andrew, Camille, Florence & Michael Were El Nino Years. 2023 Gave Us Idalia. Time Will Tell! Stay Prepared!

 

A look at the NHC graphics...

An old front out in Atlantic

2 blobs of convection

Severe Weather issues across the heartland.

Low moving out to sea off the Carolinas*

Moisture laden Gulf with showers festering*

Ps NHC says nothing forming in the 7 day*

Looks like a grin to me.

Not sure if it's a sad grin....

...or a mischevous one..

Either way the Hurricane Season has begun!

* Some models toy with development off the SE Coast in the future being possible, possibly Subtropical if that happens and it's a real IF.

* Gulf has been looking threatening for days, perhaps weeks and yet nothing develops. That is not to say something could try and spin up close in to the coast so as always check back with regular NHC updates!

* NHC nothing for 7 days is never etched in stone, but if anything does look concerning they will put up a small yellow circle and then we watch. Even in 2026 surprises can happen. Speaking of 2026 the predictions are below from the NOAA

There has been much hype on El Nino for all the wrong reasons in my opinion as El Nino brings drought, destruction and death in a good part of the world. Yet as we approach the hurricane season everyone in the Atlantic part of the basin sees it as some sort of "GET OUT OF JAIL, FREE card from Monopoly.  "Nothing to worry on" and the truth is that is absolutely wrong. I am NOT saying we will have a crazy, busy hurricane season with one tropical storm after another cruising into the Caribbean and developing fast into major landfalling hurricanes. I am saying that if you have 8 to 14 named storms and 3 to 6 hurricanes on the maps and 1 to 3 Major Hurricanes on the map and you live anywhere near the coast or inland from the coast you should be concerned.  I'd say if you were in Colorado you probably do not have to worry. 

Let's say we only have 8 named storms, 3 hurricanes and 1 Major Hurricane taking the lower side of the wide range that NOAA puts out. Note they don't like to go out onto a narrow branch as narrow branches tend to snap and the fall to the ground and if you are on one it is not a pleasant experience. But let's say we have 8 named storms and note this does not include X Potential Tropical Cyclones like the XPTC8 that dumped closed to 20 inches of rain on Carolina Beachses a few years ago but never had a name!

Obviously 8 named storms can cause flooding in low lying areas along the coast of Florida and the Carolinas. Let's say South Florida gets too much rain from a stalled out tropical depression or tropical storm or one moves in around Charleston a city prone to flooding. One forms close in to Houston and creates a muddy mess.  A late season named storm hits the Big Bend of Florida with a huge messy structure while catching an early cold front and tornadoes drop like narrow branches with too much fruit hanging on them all across parts of Florida.  None of these scenarios is good IF one of these 8 named storms slams into your home town or your cute bakery business gets flooded with 18 inches of rain. 

Let's say there are only 3 hurricanes and it's one of those years, that due to a strong El Nino, tropical waves cannot get their MOJO going. But one hurricane rides up the East Coast and slides into the Cape Cod area. One hurricane rips through the Bahamas and slides up the coast into the Carolinas and then hooks out to sea. Or one late season hurricanes forms down South of the Yucatan and gets pulled up towards the West tip of Cuba moving North near Key West and then while over the hot waters of the Loop Current it slams into a Panhandle town or curves NW suddenly into Louisiana or Mississippi!  Note one  of these 3 hurricanes could be THAT Major Hurricane we all fear. Obviously Alabama always needs to pay attention even though we tend to not to mention it. Sorry Alabama.......

As for that 1 Major Hurricane.... 

What if it was a struggling tropical wave tangled up with an Upper Level Low that had been dogging it while at the same time being blown apart by El Nino shear every time it tried to get it's Mojo going.  This storm takes one of two scenarios. The first scenario is it slides between Miami and Nassau, traces the Florida Coastline just offshore bringing stormy conditions and moderate damage to beach towns. And, then it stalls out over the Gulf Stream suddenly having a burst of Rapid Intensification it explodes while sliding by Pawley's Island it continues North at a slow forward speed and slams into Oak Island in North Carolina. It then crosses OBX. It then parallels the coastline making everyone nervous from NYC to Boston and ends up in Newfoundland.  Such a hurricane could bring multiple impacts across a wide area as Donna and Hazel did back when and even the last Isaias on it's first trip around the Hurricane name list! Ps ISAIAS is BACK!!  We all do so dread the I storm!

The rest of the storms are weak, wandering barely there named storms and wobbly weak hurricanes. No one remembers their names. 2023 is an analog for that sort of season as it was a rather busy El Nino year and yet for many the only name they remember is Idalia!  Oops the dreaded I storm did it again!!

Was that a dead season? No I don't think so.

NOAA would be off by a lot as 2023 had 20 named storms. 

Again we could also have a very quiet season such as 1997 with only 7 named storms. 

I'll wager we are somewhere between 1997 and 2023. Only time will tell. 

1997 Hurricane Season.

So far we have been twinning that season...

...yet we are far from Prime Time El Nino!

So stay tuned.

Idalia was a mean hurricane.

In an otherwise quiet year...

..with most named storms far out at sea.

Slow seasons with low numbers do not always mean a free pass it means you have to hope that one does not find a sweet spot in any given week where shear is weaker and there is a favorable enviroment in line with CLIMO that allows a named storm to be the one that blossoms into a storm that will be remembered for all eternity or at least the next 100 years like the 1926 Great Miami Hurricane that I will talk about much this hurricane season. 

Camille formed here....

... because El Nino shear didn't allow it

to form in the Atlantic or the Carib.

Andrew formed early....

..strugged it's way across the Atlantic.

Typical of El Nino

Then close in it turned.

It exploded.

2 deadly landfalls.

No one ever forgets Andrew.

Hurricane Michael....

Didn't form in the MDR

It didn't form in the Central Caribbean

It formed near the Yucatan....

...in an El Nino Year.

Exploded over the Gulf

And it went all the way to Spain.

Almost to Spain.

That same year....

...Florence went from Africa to the Carolinas.

Taking a Northern Passage it avoided El Nino.

Kind of like some wartime route in an old movie.

One oddity with El Nino Years is...

...the bad ones find a way.

Florence took a Northern route

Kind of saying "what El Nino?"

Florence busted a drought in NC

We have a bad drought :(

Droughts during El Nino Years...

...often get busted by a Major Wet Hurricane.

And yes we could have a DEAD quiet season...

Dead in the Atlantic

Busy in the EPAc

or messy tropical storms causing flooding.

Anything goes.

Just because there's an El Nino ...

...does not mean the Atlantic Basin is Free Parking

Until we are deep into December.

El Nino reigns in December.

It's in the name...

Shows up around Christmas often..

..that is where the name came from..

No one is declared safe or a winner

Until December.

So stock up on hurricane supplies.

Your specific hurricane supplies.

Know your prioties.

Do you live alone?

Do you have pets?

Do you have children?

Are you elderly on medication?

The list goes on and on and on.

Know your dangers?

Are you in a low lying area?

Are you close to the coast?

Do you live in a tall Condo in Miami?

NHC does their job.

You have to do your job!

Stay aware and prepared.

Pay attention to the NHC.

They are the bottom line!

Lastly I just came up with those scenarios as I was typing though I have thought a lot about areas that need to be watched more carefully for possible development. Just showing typical tracks for hurricanes that do not become strong out in the Main Developement Region aka MDR not in the deep Caribbean such as Mitch or Matthew. 

I will talk more this week on the areas I do think need to be watched, so stay tuned! And stay prepared!

Sweet Tropical Dreams,

BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on X

X mostly weather

Elsewhere whatever.

As for dreams.... 

do you have weather dreams?

or do you have wild dreams?

What do you dream about?