Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Friday, October 09, 2015

Euro & GFS Showing GOM Development. Possibly FL In Play. Have you donated yet to those in need in SC? Please do..

A lot of innuendo and discussion concerning a possible tropical event in the Gulf of Mexico. The GFS has been crying development, but until now the Euro has been silent as she watches the last remnants of Joaquin far away in Spain.

The Euro was celebrating it's victory in the forecasting match with the GFS.

But now the Euro has weighed in on tropical possibilities too!

There's a front. You know the drill.

And there's convection in the Caribbean...
Let's wait and see what the Euro thinks tomorrow after lunch..

So far the death toll is 17 in SC.

Focus on the clean up and if you can please help.

Stay tuned.
Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter

Ps Ignore the illusions of something off of E Coast of FL
BAMN ORANGE ... RED...then poof ;)

Thursday, October 08, 2015

Donate Now to Clean up in SC. Death Toll up to 17. Tropics Quiet Tho MJO is On the Way. Joaquin Doing Spain. News and thoughts on Memories..

Let's talk about the tropics

Let's talk about the tropics.
The tropics are quiet.
Nothing is going on.
Good... we need a respite right now.

This is a transition period.
The trough that pushed away Joaquin..
...kept on pushing.
It's visible in the Water Vapor Loop below.
There's another front coming soon.

latest_wv_loop.gif (535×440)

Where is Joaquin you wonder?
Far far away exit right.
Rain in Spain.

wv-animated.gif (1120×480)

SW Carib shows some potential.
Climo would favor that area.
Something moving up towards GOM and Florida.

What is going on in the Caribbean?

latest72hrs.gif (947×405)

3 letters define possible development in the Atlantic.

There may be a set up for tropical trouble.
The models, not the Euro, have been whispering development.
We are waiting for the Euro.
I am waiting for the Euro.
And, a yellow circle somewhere....
Just saying if you hear about something....'s being given weight by the MJO moving towards the basin.
Most meteorologists LOVE the MJO.
Some remain skeptical.

Levi Cowan is a believer.

Note in many ways we are always monitoring the tropics.
Way before an Invest forms.. or doesn't.
Meteorologists are monitoring potential areas.

Then there is Dabuh an expert in weather and surf reports.

Take a look at the loop for yourself.

sat_wv_east_loop-12.gif (640×512)

Just posting some images of areas convecting.
Yes, that is a verb in my book.

Here's another look at a way the tropics are monitored... 
Good link to become familiar with below:

You get a grid view over time of areas being monitored.

The NHC is working on an upgrade to their site.
They are looking for comments.
Take a look and join in the conversation.
Hey...that's what they said...

Now the AFTERMATH of Joaquin Part of the Blog.
Please keep reading.

Mike posted this video on his Facebook site.
He's everywhere.... 

It gives the answer of WHY they closed the roads.

Must see video.
Go to Mike's site and watch.

Note waters receding have their own problems.
The water has to go somewhere.
In Miami water goes down through the porous coral rock..
...into the Biscayne Aquifer.

Carolina is different.
The same red clay we hear about in Georgia... in the Carolinas.
It doesn't dry out normal.
Rivers of mud, red mud, dry hard as if..
...Mother Nature is making clay art!

And water keeps on rolling down the river ....
....until it finds it's way out to the Sea.
It takes mud and debris with it.
It creates areas of flooding along it's way.
There is some more rain coming.. 
..not a lot but any is a problem.

Some good news links regarding the ongoing flood concerns in SC.

Note the comment "material goods can be replaced"
...but the memories..oh the memories.
They are just things; stuff that memories are made of...
Things you look at to remember.
The house remains but all the reminders of gone.
In your mind for as long as you remember... 
Maybe write those memories down.
Because the pictures and souvenirs are not there anymore in some places.

So as for cleaning up after Joaquin.
Going to take a while.
Beautiful stories of people helping people.
Finding photos and bringing them back... they can try and salvage something.

Interesting for me to read as I have been going through a move. I've been getting rid of lots of things; saving other things. What is it with men they just don't want to let any "thing" go ?? My brother in Miami is proud of his collection of flashlights in the closets and equally older batteries. They go bad after a while... My sister in law regularly goes on a cleaning spree and argues with him about throwing out old saved packages of soaps from hotels and motels they have visited. They are very comfortable luckily, they buy soap all the time but getting men to give up those things isn't easy. Yes I often keep those relish and mayo packs in a drawer from some place that puts 6 mustard into a "to go order" (why would anyone need 6 packages for one hamburger or 6 soy sauce for one sushi order??) because if I am out of relish (happens) I have an emergency pack. After Hurricane Andrew... we had mustard on our cold cuts because I saved them. But some things need to be thrown out or given away.

If you have something that has sat in the back of a cabinet for 8 years unused.. you probably do not need it. Someone who lost their home in a flood or doesn't have money for a mug may want it. Someone who may never get to Hawaii may want your Hawaii mug to keep as a reminder of where they want to go for their 10th Anniversary. Give it away to someone who can use it. As a mother who raised my kids on my own with little help from anyone..back when I was divorced and they were small ... I bought a lot of things at Red, White and Blue thrift shop in North Miami. Loved that place. Found things I gave away when I moved back from LA to Miami and gave away a lot of stuff there over time. Really why as a culture do we hoard a box of AAA batteries that were bought 10 years ago?  ???

Now might be a good time to give dinero $$$ to the good old Red Cross. Money... 

Now might be a good time to give things you no longer want to people who might want it; who might need it way more than you obviously did not if it is sitting in a closet unused in ten years.

Contact your local place of worship or a community service group and see if they are collecting food, toys, diapers, clothes for people in the flooded region. Many are collecting and trying to get it to the right places in South Carolina.

Note the article and passages about Chabad of South Carolina. They are a Jewish group that provides many services to people in Columbia, Charleston and Myrtle Beach.

Note it will take a while to put all the roads back together again....
It will take a lot of money to put people's lives back together again..

Locally they dealt with the flooding that came during a Jewish Holiday.

Sukkoth, the holiday of booths when you eat and party outside.
This year...the booths looked more like boats or floating arks.

Everywhere help is needed.

The drought may have been busted.
But people's spirits are not busted.

Floods are the great equalizer.
They don't care if you are black or white.
Christian, Jewish or Muslim.
They don't care if you are overweight or thin.
Young or old.

And everyone needs help.

Note death toll is up to 17.

Misty water colored memories....water covered memories indeed.
Scattered pictures of the smiles we left behind.

The clean up means people need things.

A lady on TV was grateful neighbors brought her photos they found.
Pictures that had floated out of her home and into their yards.
She said she had been meaning to scan them and put them online.
We've all been meaning to scan those pics ...
We've all thought of taking pics of kid's schools projects ...
...rather than holding on to tattered remains in the bottom of a closet.
Make an album online on some photo shop company....
I have a few nice albums from pics I saved on my computer :)

Do it now!

Because they may float away in a flood...
...or take flight in a tornado.

What are memories to you?
Record your memories, scan your photos.
For your children and loved ones...

Give the old crap away that you haven't touched in ten years.
Do it now.

To you it's an old momento or even a piece of junk.
To someone else it may be a plate or pot they need but couldn't afford.

Something to think on..
People cannot be replaced. 
Memories are all that remains.

Besos Bobbistorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter

Ps. Good show in Jacksonville going on about when Mother Nature goes on the Rampage. My words, check it out for yourself. Weather happens every where and earthquakes have no warning. Learn now. Make a plan. Scan pics. Give money or things you don't need. I know I am ... mug by mug, casserole dish by casserole dish. How many casserole dishes do you need anyway?

Wednesday, October 07, 2015

Post Coverage of Joaquin..On It's Way to Spain. So many people asking "WHY?" High Death Toll When All is Said and Done. I95 Still Closed in SC... Floods in Texas. Music tells the story... sort of . . .

A Kafkaesque look has come to the coverage on TWC of the Historic Flood that was a result it seems of an "Atmospheric River" that was just recently discovered.  Ain't really got nothing to say Willie Nelson sings . . .cause really don't have answers for you. So many "whys" left behind.

They can't answer the big questions.
Why did the El Faro leave port and take on Joaquin?
They made it through Erika (ummm not Joaquin)
Though when they left perhaps they thought Joaquin...
...would go the way of Erika?

We may never know for sure.

Either way... 
They can't explain why the "Pizza Lady" took the Pizza?
Was it all she had in the house?
Did she buy it with her last few dollars?
Is she really that into Pizza ...she didn't want it to go to waste?
Hungry? Starved? Likes Pizza?
She should definitely be their new spokeswoman.
She knows how to speak. 
Her interview was riveting.
Maybe they should let her cover the weather.
She was intense, compelling.
But why the pizza?
Well she got the dog and the pizza to be fair.

Why is there no normal site to show info on I95 in Carolina?
Do they just figure everyone has WAZE so it's not a problem?
I have a confession to me... 
..sometimes WAZE is really annoying.
But it often saves the day.
Probably destroys marriages as some men ...
...just don't get it... 

Then there's the 15 people who died.
Many drown and some are complaining it was not publicized enough.
TWC is going for an EMMY for their nonstop 24/7 coverage.
Oh.....a lot of people don't watch TWC.
They do Netflix and HULU.
I mean nonstop coverage of the flood of the century...
Yet until people see the creek rise ...
..and the dam breach... 
They just don't believe it.

Sad, really sad.

Actually its a miracle that more people did not die.

The Pizza Lady is right.
They are just possessions.
Never let the possessions own you!

At least we have weather apps and the NWS.
Years ago the creek rose and no one knew... 

The Catastrophic Insurance Adjusters are on the scene already.
Floods are easy they told me. One small area and you can move about faster.
Get more done. Get more claims filed faster.

South Carolina is having a Live Press Conference.
Roll up our sleeves and get the job done.
Register with FEMA.
If we tell you to leave an area.. please leave.

My son is driving back from FL to NY today.

South Carolina welcomed him....

And then.............they detoured him...

A long detour...something about Florence SC...

Note the beautiful Carolina Blue Sky..

Meanwhile life goes on.
The atmospheric river is flowing somewhere else today.

Joaquin is way out there...............

It's a backwards Cape Verde Wave.
Went West not East to there rather than from there.

I have a friend who does astrology.
She insists this is the Retrograde Hurricane From Hell.
Hard to argue that one...

The final track will be a doozy for the history books.

Bahamas and the Azores. 
Go figure.

And it sunk Carolina as much as the El Faro without even making landfall.
Okay one part of the whole "fire hose" discussion.

Winter is retreating into Indian Summer.
I always did love that Indian Summer.
But.........I digress...

Texas, by the way, had serious flooding as well.
Not connected in any way to Joaquin.

Miles and miles of roads across the US ripped up from flooding...

One thing I'll say about the Pizza Lady...
...she's got passion. 
If you are going to cover the weather... need passion.

Otherwise... it feels like a Kafka novel.
Dark, sad, strange and surreal.

Down the road... 
We may hear about flooding rains in Spain.

Discussion is not as exciting as the Pizza Lady youtube.
And the post game coverage on TWC is less than overwhelming.

There is some discussion that something may form in the GOM... about a week or so.
Models are giving higher chances then before.
Are we really going to watch any model but the Euro right now?
The HRWF was spot on with intensity... not much else.

They are talking about the dust, it's making me sleepy.

Lastly going to talk on OHO.
That's the name of a storm.
In the Pacific.

In the year of 2015... 
California can't get rain from a record El Nino.
It's going to the YUKON..
Canada or bust!

Couldn't sleep last night.
I was remembering the oddest things.
You know when you start thinking on one thing...
...and always come back to the other.
The song Imagine.
Slow dancing to Imagine.
Ever slow dance with someone?
You remember it forever.
Then there is the "WHY"
Why did we dance?
Why didn't we dance more?

Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter

Ps... Yes, Kafkaesque was the nicest thing I could say.

Worth reading if you haven't.
Discussion in depth on El Faro Sinking

Tuesday, October 06, 2015

Joaquin Aims for Azores. El Faro Sunk... Gone. Carolina Tries to Clean Up. I95 Tries to Open.

At 11 PM Hurricane Joaquin.... was a still a hurricane.
Up far in the North Atlantic

I realized tonight why I like the Canadian Satellite.
It looks like a UM Hurricane. 
This view also shows the very cold water to the NE of Joaquin.

Or take the red and blue view.

I was wondering why the 11 PM was slow coming out.
Discussion tells the story. Waiting on latest imagery.

Cone has shifted to the right side of the 5 PM cone.
Now headed more towards the Azores...
And being Post Tropical sooner rather than later.

Compare and contrast below with 5 PM 

Note the Azores were in the Wind Probs at 5 PM.
But.. I waited on 11 PM before including it.

Note 5 PM discussion wind probs.
Wind probs always rock..

How did Joaquin remain a hurricane so long?
This is how Joaquin stayed alive.
Note how he tapped into deep tropical moisture

latest72hrs.gif (947×405)

Compare and contrast the cone from 5 PM

Note the 11 PM cone is on the South side of the 5 PM Cone.

Hurricane Joaquin had Great Britain in it's 5 Day Cone at 5PM. Go figure. The little engine that could .. never stopped going. Long live the Euro...

80 MPH moving ENE at 29 MPH. Crazy storm. Dangerous Storm. Totally underestimated storm.

Let's go back to Monday Morning at 5 AM when the ship El Faro was getting ready to depart to San Juan in a "slow hurricane season" famous for storms unable to hold it together and a much talked about El Nino leading to the illusion of safety from disastrous storms.

15 people have died in South Carolina from storm related deaths. That number may climb..
33 people were on board the El Faro
48 people have died from and that isn't counting any final totals from the Bahamas.

This is what bothers me when people wax poetic on El Nino and how we don't need to worry on hurricanes this year. This is why it bothers me when they put up cartoon characters like Godzilla and write long articles about Global Warming and the demise of the 2015 Hurricane Season due to the biggest El Nino since 1997 in August or even early September.

The Ding Dong the Witch is Dead that went on this past summer has turned to chagrin and dismay.

How could a ship set sail into a hurricane in today's age?

Well the forecast a week ago at 5 am is shown below. Note the ridiculous amount of "which way the storm might go according to every model but the NAM" vs a hard core, old fashioned discussion (before the models were all public) of the basic problem with making a forecast for a still disorganized tropical storm. Note, many made fun of the fact that the NHC even upgraded that Invest while worrying on moisture in the Gulf of Mexico.

Okay I'm really not here to crucify the NHC on this one.
They did a good job with a very difficult storm.
A worst case scenario of .. everything that could go wrong did.

5 Days before this I don't even think this area had a yellow circle.
But that's a blog for another day.
I'm just saying 

Dorothy got more solid advice from the Scarecrow.
And ...he supposedly didn't have a brain...

There's a blog post up on that is worth reading.

But it did make a difference to 33 souls stuck on a ship...
.... in the eye of the Category 4 hurricane.
I bet if they could speak they'd say it felt like a Cat 5.
But what does a few miles per hour really mean.
When you are stuck in a stuck storm...
Great discussion Dave.
Thanks to me friend Pat who always makes sure I read it ;)

Such a really good solid discussion.
Compare and contrast with NHC discussion.
NHC discussion used to be more clear cut.
Conservative ALWAYS but clear cut.
Yes. I know ... it's written for professionals to reword.
BUT in today's world everyone reads it... they watch the models.

Every kid on a Kindle can access the models.
Every great grandparents on windows can find it.
It's on our phones... u don't even need a PC anymore.
You don't have to go to AOL Weather Boards to find it.
You'd think the NHC would put up their own model graphics.
But then why would they compete with Ryan and Levi?

Just saying they were way too conservative from the start.
Yet... it wasn't even a yellow circle 5 days before.

On the 22nd there wasn't even a purple splotch let alone a circle.

We were watching other areas.

On the 22nd circle, no splotch.

On the 26th... an orange circle pops up.

Makes me wonder if we had another Labor Day Storm...
Would the models pick it up?
Would the NHC be conservative in the beginning.
This in ways reminds of the Labor Day Storm.
Nothing...then SOMETHING.
What would they do in such a scenario?

The ship sank. 
Bottom Line...the ship is on the bottom of the ocean.
15,000 Feet Down.

Who made what mistake when will be assessed.
The shipping company is the bottom line here it seems

The ship was old for this sort of trip.. but inspected recently.
Due to be transferred to Alaska I believe but made the trip.

Time will tell this story as we learn more of the facts.

But... put this in the perspective of the media hype on a Weak Season...
And, it bothers me a lot.

No one on Tuesday or Wednesday morning saw a Cat 4 coming.
And when I say Cat 4.. we are talking just  a few mph short of Cat 5.
Strong gusts definitely in Cat 5 range.
A huge ship stalled ....out near an almost Cat 5 Cane..
And a container ship with cars stalled out from loss of propulsion.
A bad, bad scenario.

Time will tell the story.
Authors will write books.
A movie or documentary at least will be made.
Families and friends mourn ...
There is no real closure.
Just floating Styrofoam from packing materials..
..bobbing up and down in the ocean over 100s of miles.

Miles and miles away... 
Miles of highways are ripped up and shut down.
People are being detoured around the flooded roads.
Rivers are out of their banks and water is slowly receding.

South Carolina tries to dry out and figure out... they missed the storm and got the weather anyway.

There is just so much to say but I'll save it for another day.
I had a nice holiday. Nice if you want to be in Raleigh for a holiday.
But I digress. I prefer being in Miami.
In Miami I have my 2 best friends, partners in crime.
And Simchas Torah is a day to remember often.
Or a night. I remember a few great nights.
Sharon rolling her eyes and Malka pouring more drinks.
Harvey's gray jacket. 
A long walk home at 4 AM from the Cadillac Hotel.
Our kids pushing double strollers and annoyed we weren't able to..
Simcha means JOY.
It's a joyous upbeat holiday usually.
Simcha...dancing, drinking, singing, fellowship of close friends.
It was good. Just not Miami .. Nuff Said.
But... pretty sure I'll be in Miami next year ;)
I'll be in Miami a lot more next year.
Hoping to be there Purim ;)
Another happy holiday.

Not sure what they did in Myrtle Beach or Columbia.
On Monday oddly we prayed for rain.
It's really a prayer meant for rain in the Holy Land.
That time of year you pray for rain

See below...

I prayed for rain this year at home.
Watching the rain fall and the wind sway the pine trees.
I prayed for rain to fall in California and not Carolina.
I prayed for the loves ones who lost the 33 souls on the El Faro.
And, I prayed people stayed away from swollen rivers.
And as the Governor of SC said... shelter in place, stay home.

In the Atlantic we have another Invest.. named Invest 91L
Which you probably know if you have been following.

It's not over ...til it's over.

Note one cool spot in the Atlantic is where Joaquin was...
...where he sat and spun...
...where he sank the El Faro...

Blue for upwelling....

Besos Bobbistorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter

Ps. Thanks for your patience with my disappearing acts on Jewish Holidays
They are over until Passover in the Spring.
So I'll be around...

In case Invest 91L develops ...
Or an Invest closer u pops up..
And any damage Joaquin does in ...Europe.
Or the Azores...or Spain...
No words.

Great site as always
Great job.
They have a hard job.
The buck stops there.
They are the bottom line.
Every once in a while you get a storm like Joaquin.
Intensity forecasting remains the Holy Grail.
Let's hope we get better at it.
Before the next Labor Day Storm forms..
Or any fast forming storm forms close in...

Pss... a haunting song for a haunting ship story.
And a memorable cane... i thought it was worth posting