Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Sunday, July 23, 2017

Atlantic Slow. Tropical Rant In Search of Extraordinary VS Mediocre Pseudo Tropical Storms.

sat_wv_east_loop-12.gif (640×512)

The lesson learned from today's blog is the following.
We need cold fronts.



You have to get some fronts dipping down...
The set up needs to change.
Otherwise Africa's best waves keep making Epac Storms.
And Epac storms are fish storms mostly.
Let's not pretend FERNANDA is hitting HAWAII as a CANE.
Just saying.
You can't have a good tango without a dip.
I'm also a dancer... remember 


42 seconds in if you are impatient.
Lord knows I'm impatient.
I'm not into mediocre.
And to be honest Cindy and Don were mediocre.
Mother Nature did save us from having Hilary and Don tho...
..so thank you Mother Nature.

As for the discussion on ACE.
I'm not into it.
I don't care about the ACE numbers.
Obviously the four named storms in the Atlantic were crap storms.
We call them crap storms when they didn't do much.
Well they did validate the NHC use of models.
And the models did call for "development" 
If you can call Don or Cindy "development"
Fine we had four storms.
A friend called Don a  "pseudo storm" I like that.


I want a real hurricane.
Bottom line.
Everyone wants something.
I want a real hurricane in the Atlantic.

Yes the EPAC is smoking hot. That will end soon. And again they got some of our best CV waves. About a month ago everyone was whining it was slow there. People were waxing academic on the slow start to the EPAC season and how the Atlantic was way ahead of the EPAC as if this was some sort of game. I'm not into numbers 10/7/4 because numbers can be manipulated. Obviously we had Cindy and that was manipulation of numbers and over reliance on models of a system forming close in. Don was not much more than a dot westbound. TD4 looked way better than Don the Dot but TD4 was not knocking at the door to the islands so it remained TD4 even though it looked way better than Cindy ever did. I'm not even talking on the A storm way back when. 

Loop this loop and watch the process that allows African waves to seed the EPAC with named storms. The lost to SAL was a win in the long run as the EPAC has no SAL.

http://www.eldoradocountyweather.com/current/satellite/goeseast-wv.php

Larry Cosgrove is a friend and one of the best meteorologists I know and I know the best. He's been brutally honest in his forecast on the lack of tropical development in the Atlantic.  He's a voice I cannot ignore as much as I would love to... And I'll add in it my own thoughts it ispossible something close in develops if it gets into the right spot. Something better than Cindy but not Don the Dot. And he is being more harsh than Jim from Hurricane City (another really close friend who I have learned much from and I'm not just talking tropics) in that Larry can't even say we will have anything real to track through August. You can subscribe to his forecasts online. Years back, oh my gosh decades back Larry would call for cyclogenesis and other mets would make fun of him only to see it play out just as Larry said it would. And what I love about Larry most (besides his music) is his understanding of how the globe works weather wise. Geographic knowledge combined with meteorological and well just on all levels .. Larry knows his stuff. Part of his stuff is music and y'all know how much I love music.

https://www.facebook.com/larry.cosgrove

I'm posting a sample below of what he recently wrote. Note the reason we should worry on this is not because 1992 was a slow hurricane season, but because the large, huge ridge allowed for the Katrina, Betsy and Andrew sort of double landfall scenario set up. Throw in Hurricane Georges that kept moving WNW despite every NHC discussion that it would soon make the turn...


This is the mean season gang.
It's hot and only getting hotter.
It was 85 degrees at 1 AM last night.


Only a weather person uses Snapchat as a thermometer

Heat index was off the charts as well last night.


The mean season brings out the meanies in people.
In Miami .. okay Hialeah someone shot at FPL trucks.
He was upset they were parked so long in front of his house.
So he shot out the tires.
As my daughter said "that ain't gonna help his situation"


His excuse was he went bananas.
My brother gets that way when he goes to the Subway in Hialeah.
But I digress.
Because Miami...


UH HUH...

Enjoying this ramble?
Hope so cause if not now when?






One day it's hot...
..and soon it will not be hot.
Seasons... First EPAC
Then Atlantic Hurricane Season.


As for the EPAC feed more by African Waves than Columbian monsoonal convection it was a slow start and then it went bonkers as if it was on steroids. And this too shall pass. Everything has it's season. In Miami we have tourist seasons, mango season, football season and hurricane season. Those are our four seasons. In Raleigh we have Pumpkin Spice Latte Season, It's never gonna snow season, hot as hell season and "wow the dogwood is in bloom" season. What are your seasons? The EPAC it lit up today like the sun when it's busy and then the sun goes quiet. This is my "I"m impatient sick of stupid, pseudo tropical storms and football is too far away for my liking and it's way too hot to go outside and I can't find a good bold, gel 1.6 pen the way I used to be able to do and yes it makes a difference season. This is my blog and I can do long run on sentences and be brutally honest because if not now when? As an old friend on AOL used to say "I don't give a rat's ass" unless it's a real hurricane with an eye.

I want a hurricane.
A real hurricane.
Don't go all "hurricanes are bad" on me.
It can swerve away fast if you are peace loving.
I'm an Earth Science person.
I like hurricanes.
It's why my blog is not called:
"Growing tomatoes in my backyard in Raleigh"
It's called Hurricane Harbor for a reason.

So what is the answer here?
We need frontal boundaries dipping down.
Not racing East as the Epac races West.
We need to mix it up for many meteorological reasons.

wv-animated.gif (720×480)

Dip stupid front DIP!
As for the ULL situation I am so over that!

So what's the answer?

1. To put a halt to the heat ridge creating misery across the Eastern Half of the country.
2. To flip the switch on the tropics into "ON" to have something to track, study and chase.
3. If you hate hurricanes carry on and root for the ridge..go for it. Enjoy the heat.
4. Go back up and read what Larry said on 1992 and think twice on loving that ridge.
5. If you are doing futures know the crops are taking a beating from the heat. 
6. Today's blog post is brought to you from someone who has had enough of nothing.
7. I didn't trash my friends at the NHC because I'm respectful and holding back (for now).
8. I need a 500 MB heights obviously.......  Larry gets that. :(

Extra credit points for why #7 above.
Nice tropical waves get no mention w/o model support.
And so far the models have sucked if you ask me.
Despite mention here the NHC won't mention them.
Except on the discussion no one reads.
Well i do but you know that don't you?
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATWDAT+shtml/231121_MIATWDAT.shtml?


I've never been a real summer girl in retrospect. I don't tan, I just burn and then the burn fades away. I did get serious sun poisoning once with my cousin at a hotel on Miami Beach when we eluded my grandmother and spent the whole day in the pool and the ocean. After the invention of AC most Miami kids hibernate in malls, movie theaters and take trips up to the mountains of NC to evade the summer heat. Even long summer trips to relatives in NY is worth getting out of town. We wear shorts and sandals all the time so waiting for the summer to put on "summer clothes" is not something we care about and pool parties at friends houses usually involved throwing each other into the pool and then going into the Florida Room inside to stay cool. Note FPL makes a fricking fortune from the electric bill it takes to live on life support in Miami in July and August. And not to beat a dead horse but rather than fix their poles they wait til the poles fall down in relatively minor hurricanes and then raise the rates because it cost so much to fix them. Sorry FPL friends but being honest, I'm in a mood. 

In NC summer means you can go barefoot outside, if you want to go outside. Everything is green again as all the flowers have died from the heat. If you slept late your tomatoes have died on your backyard plants which is why it's worth the extra money to shop at Whole Foods. Also I may add Whole Foods keeps the AC really COLD so you can lower yours while away ...save some money and enjoy the quality coffee and let them clean up after you eat lunch. I'm not much of a farmer. I grew up in LA in the 80s according to Facebook (probably true in ways) and I've been an actor, a dancer and worked on political campaigns since I was five and I'm a writer who refuses to spell check this morning and refuses to lie to you.

1. We have good waves that in the old days would at least be mentioned on tropical updates. Especially as they have made it intact across the dry, Atlantic and washed up onto the shores of South America and then went into the Carib only to form in the EPAC where SAL does not exist.

sat_ir_enh_east_loop-12.gif (640×512)

But this year clusters of convection are named TS..
..rather than Subtropical Cyclones.
I'm being kind.

But the day will come when the EPAC gets quiet.
( i know upwelling......rolling eyes)

And the Atlantic will come to life.
If the SAL is gone...
..and the High is not gone.
The huge double barreled high.....
1992 might indeed be something to worry on.


Fronts will form just enough to pull the waves WNW.
And you know what that means.

Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter

Ps will leave this here for Jim W.
If he is still reading and grinning.


One of the best...  he was truly extraordinary and left a legacy of video online.

http://www.legacy.com/obituaries/name/james-leonard-obituary?pid=1000000173072579&view=guestbook

Must be something about the name Jim ;)






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Friday, July 21, 2017

HEAT ALERTS - Take Them Seriously! Tropics Quiet in the Atlantic. EPAC Busy.. Solar Eclipse Stamps .. Hurricane History. Be Aware and Prepared


Those are the watches and warnings above.
The heat index as of 6 pm Friday is below:


A "cold front" will be here on Tuesday meaning the temperatures will go down below 90 degrees. You kind of take what you an get in July when you have warnings up for dangerous heat in your city. It's hard to understand how people fear hurricanes that can be prepared for and yet do not take high heat warnings seriously. More people die during these sweltering times as well as during the dead of winter yet they worry less on a hurricane because their city hasn't been hit in 20 years. Miami went from 1965 to 1992 before experiencing a real hurricane (Floyd in 1987 doesn't really count) and then a generation that experienced Andrew obsessed on hurricanes every hurricane season. And then people forget and after they forget they begin to believe their city doesn't really get hurricanes. Trust me after Hurricane Matthew people in Jacksonville won't have their guard down this hurricane season. But what about Tampa that hasn't had a direct hit in many years. Even Hurricane Donna that dealt them a tough hand made landfall to the south near Naples Florida.

http://www.history.com/this-day-in-history/hurricane-donna-is-born


(It's so hot I chose this map above because it looked cool)
(Like a cool pool in the Florida Keys...)

The high temperature in many places causes a heat inversion trapping in the pollutants and pollen that may mess with your allergies. If you are prone to such problems stay inside in AC on those days or catch a flight out of town. Since catching a flight out of town is not always possible for most of us... stay home in AC. Take medication if you need and wait it out. Soon cold fronts will bring cooler temperatures at night and with patience the dog days of summer will give way to Fall.  I'm writing this blog a bit late today as I woke up sick with a rare asthma problem. I say rare as lately I haven't had any problems, but the weather has been problematic in Raleigh this July.

And in truth there isn't anything going on in the Atlantic Basin to speak of beyond tropical waves moving west under a sheet of SAL while the EPAC is on steroids this week. There are so many storms some of them do not fit on the NRL site. Usually when the EPAC is busy the Atlantic is not and you count a week to ten days before we see any action. There has been some talk of something forming close in during that time, so as always this time of year keep on top of your local weather source. In today's world with APPs on our phones there is no reason to be surprised by the weather. As a matter of fact my phone sends me weather warnings and that was programmed into my phone not something I do. So there is no excuse to be surprised by any sort of weather danger. How do you know the difference between feeling hot, edgy and tired and seriously being affected by the heat? Good rule of thumb below.


Err on the side of caution if you feel ill.
In Miami it's hot but there's always a breeze.
Between the perspiration and the breeze it's not bad.
But in places like Raleigh it's stifling hot today.
Fayetteville NC hit 101 degrees today.

Now to the tropics as they are today.
It's obvious we have strong waves in the Atlantic.
And the EPAC is BUSY


So busy.....
...see NRL below.



The models are below.
They are up on Spaghetti Models.


It's worth noting the Global Tropics Hazards Map shows possibilities.
The Tropical Formation Percentages shows purple.
Strong waves but .....
....stronger SAL for now....
However, the NHC erring on the advice of the models isn't buying it.
As always check their site as they are the bottom line.

http://nhc.noaa.gov

The map below shows the HUGE HIGH.
The suppressed SAL to it's South.
A busy EPAC


Euro:
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf&region=atl&pkg=mslpaNorm

GFS:
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=atl&pkg=mslpaNorm


Take Tampa for instance... You haven't seen afternoon thunderstorms until you have lived in Tampa. Deadly cloud to ground lightning strikes that snap and dance across the sky. Even for a person raised in Miami a good afternoon thunderstorm in Tampa catches your attention. There's a reason they call their ice hockey team Tampa Bay Lightning. And don't laugh about having an Ice Hockey team in Florida, because one of the coolest places to be in South Florida is at a Florida Panthers Game. My Grandma Mary grew up in Tampa, she once saw lightning come in through the fireplace scaring her so much that for years she hid under a bed when there was lightning. My Great Grandfather was said to sit on the porch outside watching the clouds form and watching the lightning. I guess we can see whose genes I got.

Read up a bit on hurricane history. 
A good place to begin if you don't own all his books like I do...

https://www.jaybarnesonhurricanes.com/

I'll probably reread the NC Hurricane History book this weekend that he wrote as I pretty much know the Florida book by heart. A cold glass of Iced Tea and a good book to read. A pretty good way to pass a hot day in July if you ask me.

I'm on meds right now so I'm a little all over the place, forgive me I'll be back to my normal self in a few days. I keep dreaming on Seattle but that's not happening and if anything I'll be "home" in Florida for a bit come August.  On days like today I'm happy to be here cooking for Shabbos and we have friends for dinner and all in all life is good. 

I wanted to share something here with you that I wish I had known two days ago at the post office. I came this close to buying some of the eclipse stamps on sale to send out a package to a friend of mine in it's path who has been a bit crazy on the eclipse passing over Charleston. Who knew they change colors. Is that awesome? I saw it in my feed earlier today. If anyone has kids or grandchildren who like interesting stamps this would be the one to use if you are sending them a birthday card. Yes, some people still do that...


I know I'm going to try and buy some on Monday.
I love stamps and I have some very scientific minded grandchildren.
Okay last year I send my grandson a tee shirt with germs on it.
Well, he refers to them as bacteria.
Hard to beat that......


Somehow Lego doesn't really cut it.

Stay tuned.........

The good news for tropical lovers is that online today people have been arguing about pre season forecasts regarding this hurricane season. They are arguing whether Don would have gotten a name years ago and if MJO will ever show up in the Atlantic. From years of observing meteorology friends I can honestly say when it gets mean online... we are about two weeks to go before the Atlantic comes alive. Have a wonderful weekend, may you be surrounded by love and have the basics you need and a little more to enjoy life. Stay cool... Fall is coming. And, along with Fall comes football and real hurricanes.

We are deep in the heart of Summer








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Thursday, July 20, 2017

Tropics Thursday ULLs Dance in Atlantic. Waves Keep Coming Off of Africa. Back Story Drama Going On...


A quick look at Mike's Spaghetti Models shows nothing happening.
NADA in the tropics.
www.spaghettimodels.com

But there is a back story here going on.
Nothing on the surface.
No big yellow or orange circles from the NHC.
No Invests or named tropical storms.
Kind of par for the course in July.

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Why does it look like those 2 ULLs want to do a Fujiwara dance..
...off the SE Coast near the Carolinas.


It's a strange time in the tropics. That in between time when the mean season translates to extremely hot days in the Mid Atlantic States and daily rain in Florida. People are hot, uncomfortable and once again another summer has us discussing OJ when we really should be drinking OJ often to stay hydrated. The NWS is painting a square sort of heart across the middle of the country and then those watches and warnings slide East towards places like Raleigh. 100 degrees possible on Saturday round these parts and I'm not talking "feels like" but what the thermometer may show.


And in the tropics the Upper Level Lows keep swirling round and round seemingly anchored as if they put down stakes on solid ground. Like huge wind mills in the Atlantic Ocean they spin and spin with seemingly no end. That's somewhat common though not really normal. Why? Upper Level Lows tend to ooze around a bit, expand, open up, tighten up and often then fade away while another one forms nearby taking over as if they are running a relay race. They rarely just drop anchor and refuse to leave; sometimes it happens but it's rare.

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Note 96L flares up but has no where to go.
So NHC says NO... 

The NHC has taken the yellow circle away in the Atlantic despite the wave still looking healthy and being followed by a succession of tropical waves that rolled off Africa followed by an even larger one still over Africa today. Look how much moisture is visible in the image below. Remnants of 96L looks better than Don did on a good day and as good as TD4 before that. But we basically put up yellow and orange circles these days based on model forecasts and the models don't show much forming. The waves are doing their job though quietly without any fan fare. Juicing up the atmosphere.



In other places we see formation possibilities in purple.
Like amethysts strung across the Atlantic.


Yet NHC says nope, not happening.


Pretty juicy on what we used to call the OJ loop.
Look at all that orange in the Atlantic.
It gets pulled N by the tug of the ULL above.
But it's juicy.

Worth taking a look at that last model run for 96L
IF 96L stayed alive and was named.
This is where it would go.
Good to keep in mind.


Why you ask?
Because if you drop a penny in the gutter.
This is how it would roll... 

Same as the SAL moving across the Atlantic Basin.
A precursor path wise to later tropical tracks.
Named storms with cones and watches and warnings.
Where the SAL goes tropical trouble often follows.


People take pictures of sunrise and sunset in Florida.
They ooh and ah and post #nofilter pictures online.
It's the SAL as most asthmatics know..
And I'm telling you again where SAL goes in July...
...is where Hurricanes can go in August and September.


Beautiful sunsets.
Just type in #sunset #miami for beautiful coral colored pictures.
Yesterday the family group showed lavender and lilac in the sky.


#nofilter so true.
And Brickell is where it is at in Miami.
For smart retired baby boomers.
For savvy Milleninals.
(find Sugar, have a drink... take a picture)


And as savvy John Morales knows there's a sigh coming down the road.
Phil Klotzbach posted this for a reason.
"harbinger of an active Atlantic Hurricane Season"


Rainfall is up over the Sahel region.
Africa is firing off tropical waves.
1-2-3-4 there's more and more of them.


The purpose for tropical waves in July is not to get named storms.
The purpose is to juice up the environment for the real waves.
For the real season which begins in August.
August Look Out as the nursery rhyme goes.
As Jim knows...


See the loop below...

latest72hrs.gif (947×405)

See the moisture getting into place.
The  SAL is seasonal. 
SAL comes and SAL goes.

It's the Upper Level Lows that remain the fly in the ointment.
Will they still be there in August and September?
Fronts begin rolling off the East Coast.
Each front getting successively stronger.
The switch gets flicked on...
Storms don't just go West but begin to pull WNW.

It's something to think on...
...during these quiet, hot days of July.
There's a back story going on ...
...while the media talks on OJ and Trump.
Stay hydrated, take beautiful pictures of sunset.
Stock up on hurricane supplies.

Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter

Ps ... Get a plan. But til then enjoy those beautiful pics.
The show many only get more exciting down the road.
I'll be home in August, back in the 305.



View in the daytime. Stunning.

https://www.compass.com/agents/miami/levi-meyer/

My sun knows where to go to watch the sun set.
At night the stars come out and you can see forever.

http://www.sugar-miami.com/

Fast becoming our favorite place to go in Miami. 
Drinks are good but oh the view.

As for the Upper Level Lows... Hmnnn
Will they remain through September.
Watching ULLs is like counting crows these days
I wonder..

latest_wv_loop.gif (535×440)

Funny juiciest wave yet has no circle...
...cause it has no where to go?


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Wednesday, July 19, 2017

Invest 96L All Alone ...For Now. Another Wave Behind. SAL In Charge. They Should the Atlantic SALVILLE



Don had two choices.
Spin up fast or spin down fast.
Don is done.


Well there's a wave behind 96L waiting in the wings for upgrade to 97L
There's always another wave this year.

rb-animated.gif (1120×480)

You can see the dry Saharan Dust to the North of 96L

They move in tandem.
Everything moves West.
More blasts of Saharan Dust come off of Africa.
More waves move off of Africa.
At some point later in the summer.
The waves get stronger and the SAL weaker.
Usually....
Every year is different.
But this year the waves keep coming.
Some years the waves are inferior.
This year they are strong enough to be Invests.
Some have made TS status.
Bret and Don.
Perhaps a storm with a longer name would live longer?
But I digress...

Normally we have weak no neck waves.
Poorly formed waves.
This year we have great waves.
But they all look alike.
They look like GMO waves.
I'm getting suspicious.
It's like they have been genetically modified.
All born to die by 55 West.
Except Bret & Don didn't obey....
Maybe they are like robots waves?


Okay I'm being a bit silly but watching tropical waves that are just strong enough for designation but not strong enough to do more this time of year can take a lot out of you. Last night when they pulled the plug on Don I got a really bad migraine. Then the migraine medicine made me sick :( 
I'm going to take the day off and not stare at the loops and not watching any models as the models so far haven't been that great. Expect this Invest to make it into the islands as on open wave. And that is the problem. Unless something changes down the road the waves will only get stronger, the SAL will only get weaker and frontal boundaries ....some day once again... will begin to show up on satellite imagery. As the fronts appear the waves begin to get more viable and they also begin to turn more to the WNW after going West and that is when we have to worry. Until then I suggest lots of water to fight off dehydration and a really good sense of humor. Keep watching www.spaghettimodels.com as Mike has all the information on his tropical grids and I'll update again when I have something to say. You know like Mr. Ed. He never talks unless he has something to say.......  Google it on Youtube. Until then the Tropical Cyclone Sheriff's Department AKA SAL is TOTALLY IN CHARGE!!!


Besos BobbiStorm
Follow me on Twitter at @Bobbistorm

Ps... Hey you win some you lose some. CMC was the only model gunning for upgrade to Don and I'm still at a loss to understand the NHC going with the CMC model as it's not their top gun which is the EURO model as the GFS is not yet up to par. But in truth the strength of the waves and the strong track patter seemingly set in stone for now (until fronts pull them North) is a compelling question as to what the real hurricane season will show us after August begins. 





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Tuesday, July 18, 2017

UPDATED!! TS Don Weaker - Invest 96L Forms. Track for 96L goes to the NW. Don Keeps Heading West. Possible Candidate for Rapid Intensification So Bears Watching.

11 AM Advisory finds Don not doing so good.
Down to 40 MPH winds.
Losing the battle with shear.



Again look at the left side of the loop above.
You see the clouds caught up in the strong Shear.
That's the shear that's doing battle with Don.
Shear is winning.
Which looks really good for Euro that wasn't a believer.
Unless Don can fight off that shear...
...and that's doubtful.
He will unravel in the same way Bret did last month.

Prime time in E Carib for shear this time of year.
Later in Hurricane Season the Carib is friendlier.

NHC sent recon in and they had problems finding a closed center in Don. They discussed this in the 11 AM package but are going with the premise that there is a small closed center there until they are sure it has opened up into a strong wave. There is some strong weather in "Don" and it may in fact still be Don or Don may be done. Time will tell. The NHC cut it's cone back, no double dipping for Tropical Storm Don. He's on borrowed time. Worth remembering which models forecast this vs the ones that made it a strong hurricane. And that is in fact why the NHC tries to be conservative with changes to it's forecast package. It's always best to wait a while to see for sure what will or what won't verify. 


If Don does not intensify..
..and comes in as weak TS or TD.
Don may track along the lower part of the cone.


Trinidad could get some stronger weather.
Lower part of islands should keep an eye on it.


Stay tuned to this ongoing drama.
And when we are done with Don.
Hilary is the next name up in the Epac.
Karma somewhere is having fun today.

So keep watching.
As for Invest 96L I'm watching it.
We are all watching it.
There's time.

SAL is ruling the roost in the Atlantic.
96L may form.
For now it's an elongated area of convection and low pressure.
 I still like the wave currently over Africa.
A real wave train going on.


And soon MJO moves into our part of the world.
Currently the MJO is in the Epac.


Have a good day.
The world is fine. 
I just snipped that badly. 
Sorry...
I had sushi for lunch.
I'm a happy camper.

Be back later with more updates.
Keep watching the drama.


Nice flare up again in the BOC... 

Heavy storms in South Florida today.



Below is discussion from this morning. You can see how fast things change in the tropics. So many models, so many possible solutions and things develop in real time. AGAIN small systems can spin up FAST and they can FALL APART in real time. Go to the movies and you might miss the drama in the tropics. And as fast as it fell apart earlier it can ramp back up just as fast! Stay tuned...

                                                                 * * *




Rise and shine as they say.
We do that early on busy tropical days.


Note TS Don approaching the Islands.
Invest 96L to it's east.
Nicely spaced.


5 AM 
11.5 N 56.2 W
W at 18 MPH
Winds 50 MPH
1007 Minimum Pressure

Cone from 5 AM


Only real change is they extended Don's predicted life span.
We are now looking at Thursday dissipation.
That can change so stay tuned.


As the sun rises over Tropical Storm Don....
You can see it's structure and its small size.
Over night it bulked up some.
You can see this below.
Steady as he goes.
Intensifying.

ft_lalo-animated.gif (720×480)

Track from NRL site.

And for comparison below is a hurricane.
HURRICANE FERNANDA in Epac
105 MPH.
Headed to Hawaii.
Will weaken before there..
Don above is NOT a Hurricane.


So I want to be serious this morning in that there are a lot of extremely predictable Hurricane Don jokes online right now. Some are quite funny ... witty.. no matter what your political persuasion it's good to laugh sometimes. But, many people just read Hashtags and headlines and get all excited and nervous that their Aunt Tillie vacationing in Trinidad is going to deal with a Hurricane. So if we can just keep this in perspective a bit and if Don becomes a hurricane (and that is possible) we can use the hashtag and make jokes. However, from a forecasting point of view this is not a joke as we have a small, but strong tropical storm going into the Islands on what possibly may be an intensifying phase. Some island, some where to quote a song ...is going to get a strong fast, punch from Don. And, the NHC center didn't make fun of Don's size ... Don is small. Just the way it goes. They have been way more critical of the size of many other strong hurricanes that the satellite imagery had problems even finding. I don't want to be a Debbie Downer here but if you type in #HUR this comes up ... and no it is not NOW a Hurricane.



How could it become a hurricane? Because with regard to Don in particular size is a problem as small storms are more prone to ramping up fast the way a small sports car revs it's engines and can make faster moves and turns than a large 18 wheeler on the highway. Speaking of large messy areas of convection slowly coming together is Don's friend Invest 96L introduced over night on NRL. A larger system and one that is expected to pull more to the North. 96L is orange and has a 40% chance of forming. 96L has a well defined low pressure system attached and models are being run and it is being studied. 

The fly in the ointment with Don is that some models do stick with solutions that show Don intensifying rapidly on approach to the Islands and attaining Hurricane strength. Other models do not show that and the NHC is trying to walk a conservative line while mentioning the other models.  So let's look at those models and discussion from the NHC at 5 AM.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT5+shtml/180834.shtml?

That is an excellently written discussion explaining what is going on in Don's developing CDO way better than I can and no arguments on my end. The last paragraph is the kicker and the part I am posting in case you don't read the discussion for yourself.


And on Twitter there has been much discussion on that possibility. For now I'm going to go with we watch just what Tropical Storm Don does today and after getting better information to put into the next model run see what we shall see. The main point here is if you are in the path of Don watch and prepare for a Tropical Storm but know that a hurricane over Grenada is not out of the question. And there are several possible islands to experience a hit from Don so stay on top of late breaking information. And, no joke stay away from #Fakenews regarding Don as joking around is one thing but I've seen fake cones up online with Hurricane Don headed straight for WPB and no it's not doing that. I don't want some sweet abuelita in Little Havana having to rush to the ER for a panic attack because she read Hurricane Don is headed her way. Seriously... Now if you want to wonder if anything remains from possible Tropical Storm Emily that could form from Invest 96L coming further to the North... that we can discuss later. 


Again above is an older post.
It shows the possibilities that exist regarding strengthening.
And again that is up to Don.
Warm water, low shear.

Current models on Intensity.
Now you see how hard it is to work at the NHC...


Mike has all the models up on www.spaghettimodels.com and his Facebook Page. The images are from Levi Cowan from www.tropicaltidbits.com and posted to Spaghetti Models and elsewhere.

https://www.facebook.com/mikesweatherpage



Join the discussion on Facebook...
..or on Twitter @tropicalupdates



If you want to watch the Don as it relates to any possible rapid intensification one of the two best tools we have are the Funktop all colorful and the Dvorak that shows the story in shades of gray. Bright white inside the black is a sign of strength, not a black and white donut ;)  If you see green develop inside the red on funktop watch it carefully! Funktop is the view at the top of the page.

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Wide view:

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I'll be updating at the top of the page with new advisories.
I'll put up a new post if something big happens.
I'll update either way later today.
So check back often.
Have a great day... 
.. enjoy the jokes but keep them in perspective.

Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter

Here's a touch of home town humor.
Keep watching what may be Emily... 
..it's a busy season.
Do you have your hurricane supplies now?



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