Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Friday, September 19, 2014

GOM Ripe for Development..of some kind... 1926 Miami Hurricane and My Son Levi's Birthday ;)

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Not much to talk about today in the tropics. It's been that way for a while. Edouard is out to sea doing his thing. There is moisture in the GOM from a cold front that  needs to be watched for development. Another tropical wave that was being watched is trying to slip in under the is moving Westish but a bit high. The Upper Level Low anchored over FL and Bahamas is trying hard to keep tropical development under wraps.

The picture looks more tropical than it is in reality. It is in reality a sign of winter moving into the tropics.

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There are models being run on the wave out near Africa to the far left of the above image.

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If you look at just one image everything looks tropical. Loop the loops and you see how much interference there is out there and if the Fins were able to protect their so so quarterback he wouldn't throw so many interceptions and have so many incompletions. Just saying...

One image doesn't tell the whole story.

There is no tropical storm in the GOM....the wave by Africa is possibly going to develop but the path out to sea is not set in the waves.

There are waves trying to move west into the Caribbean and Atlantic ...
....but they are running up against negative features.

I could go into deep detail in the meteorological explanations... but the reality is it's not happening.
It is possible something close in to South Florida will develop in some fashion and ride up along the coast. But if is it tropical or just a low riding a cold front.

More interesting to me this week has been looking back at the hurricane that was Miami's Hurricane.

Again remember images do not tell the story. The 1926 Great Miami Hurricane was the defining moment in Miami History. It was not the death knell that so many history writers dramatically write. It was a hard slap in the head, a punch that made you hit the ground hard and then... Miami got up and put it all back together again.

Images do not tell the story.

These are the images you see when you put in "1926 Miami Hurricane" but they do not tell the story.

It's like if you had a webcam watching someone you would think you know what is going on with their life. Perhaps you have a friend go by and start up conversation and think you know what is going on. Wrong. You know only the tip of the iceberg and you aren't getting the warm pulse of life that is the real story. You don't know the secrets.

Here's a secret I'll tell.

This picture shows a Biscayne Blvd wiped clean and a Bayfront Park covered in sand and big barges that the storm surge delivered onto the park rudely. Wrong. The park was just being built and the park created a buffer zone for downtown Miami between the beautiful Biscayne Bay and the sometime skyscrapers.

Had the park not just been built and NOT FINISHED... the barges would have slammed into those buildings and it would have been a whole lot harder to clean up the mess... the death toll higher as it was further north up on the Bay where there were shanty town style collections of poorly built houseboats where people lived.

Made that image large so you can see the windows are blown out of he buildings. The few palms there were there are ripped apart... the barges landed there not in the lobby of those beautiful old buildings where people lived and hid in bathtubs during the raging night.

Yes... Miami was a mess... and then.... the people who lived in Miami, the hard rugged working people who helped make Carl Fisher and George Merrick's dreams come into reality...went about rebuilding the paradise that was a bit battered but not lost. The real Miamians who lived here all year not the ones who came and went for three months in the winter on Miami Beach.

Real Miamians are tough and happy creatures who get to enjoy the warm tropical sunshine almost every day of the year. Even the days when it rains... most of the day is sunny and bright. None of those totally depressing gray weeks that you get further up the coast when a cold front comes down and stalls out and struggles to keep pushing and every day is just gray... with a few moments of Autumn sunshine peaking through...

The best book ever written about the 1926 Miami Hurricane was by a man who went through it and wrote notes in his diary about it. Reading those notes is like walking back through time through the dark, wild night of the storm... a drive through the eye and miraculously getting back to his house, French Doors blowing out... taking refuge in a Model T Ford as many did and the aftermath

BUY IT... read it...feel it...experience it...

Note Miami Land Dealers were getting BAD press up north in the late summer of 1925. News of swamp land being sold and sold again and again and flipped faster than a condo on Biscyane Blvd today. Laws were passed regulating investments and the winter season of 1926 was a dud way before the first drop of rain began to fall on South Beach.

Wrong..not true. It's more magical Miami to blame it on the hurricane than legislation that was put into place to stop the selling of swamp land to unsuspecting people in Ohio. But it makes a great story. It becomes a legend. The hurricane that stopped the BOOM... the boom died in the winter of 1926 before the hurricane in the September of 1926.

True.... the January season of 1926 was disappointing and the late bloomers who got in too late on the boom were having problems selling Opa Locka and Fulford-By-the-Sea (North Miami Beach now..) and forget about that dream of islands in the Bayt that would connect the Venetian Islands to Miami Shores. All that was left was some pilings off of what would become the Julia Tuttle Causeway where pelicans would watch the sunset...and still do.

Sadly somewhere in the mess of my boxes of history photos of Miami Beach... I have the map for that causeway. If I find it I'll post it. For now.. believe me and it was before there was the Julia Tuttle Causeway.

Ghostly quality to this old footage as there is no music or sound...but in the end there is the Great 1926 Miami Hurricane and the aftermath...

A year later in 1927 Miami Beach was hosting speed races again. Yes... they were still cleaning up but the bay was as beautiful as almost always...

In the early 1930s when there was no work up north in the construction business Miami was alive and kicking building the brand new, streamline modern hotels on Ocean Drive.

Architecture and Miami... what a history.

Note that when nothing was going on anywhere in the US regarding investment...South Beach was in the middle of a building boom. Five years after the "Killer Hurricane" Miami Beach was alive and money was flowing.

I know because my grandfather was one of those men who came south in 1935 for work and stayed. Yes, his wife was a Floridian trapped up north with a cigar store slash ice cream shop on the Boardwalk. She went up north from Tampa one year to visit her sister and married a Russian Immigrant who was struggling for work up north... but who found all the work he wanted in Miami. As the story goes he drove down with a friend to work on the dome of a synagogue being built on Miami Beach and once here got on the phone and called up his wife Mary and said "I'm so sorry I didn't realize how beautiful it was here, now I know why you missed Florida so much" and in less than a month they were living on Miami Beach ... back home in Florida or as she used to say FLAHR-DUH.

Secret? He came during the 1935 Hurricane in the Florida Keys. The wind was fierce in Miami and he told her he had to hold onto a palm tree to stand up straight during the height of the storm... but it didn't deter him from moving South to the land of the Sunshine.

Next time you look at the old Art Deco hotels on South Beach...
..know they were built during the height of the depression.
No depression in Miami in the early 1930s... or mid 1930s... or late 1930s..

1939 great footage from a family film... I keep thinking I went to school with someone with that last name. Anyway... 1939... Miami looking beautiful as always... (except for those rare days after a Category 4 Hurricane and by the way... 1926 was the only Category 4 hurricane that hit Miami directly as Andrew hit Homestead as anyone in South Dade will tell you....)

1955 The sun reigns again over Miami

The main street of Coral Gables doing just fine in the Florida sunshine in 1955... 30 years after the 1926 Miami Hurricane tore it up badly.

Coral Gables is as beautiful as George Merrick knew it would be...

Coral Gables.
Biltmore Hotel.

Back to the tropics....yes there is an Invest for the newest wave that rolled off of Africa...I'm just more blown away by the 1926 Miami Hurricane that did not blow Miami away but that made it a stronger, more stubborn... beautiful city.

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It's rolling...but it may roll away...Fay may be in love with Edouard and follow him out to sea.. or maybe not.........

And, because no blow about South Florida would be right without a song from Jimmy Buffett..

Tomorrow I'll talk about the tropics more or maybe Sunday. I do think some tropical system will form and find it's way into our area.. maybe the Jewish High Holidays. Old Jewish saying in Miami... hurricanes and the holidays always go together.

Spoiler alert... the 1926 Great Miami Hurricane came on the Day of Judgement Yom Kippur..

This post is in honor of my son's birthday actually.

My son Levi Meyer, who lives out in Southwest Miami and who is very involved with Coconut Grove Chabad and sells homes in Coral Gables and all over Miami is from my figuring the 5th generation of my family that is in the real estate business. NO ONE knows Miami like he does or the real estate business. It's in his genes... trust me.

My Great-Great Grandfather bought and sold land here and in NJ. Invested in land

My great Uncle sold land in Tampa... Anna Maria Island and Holmes Beach.

My grandfather built homes on Miami Beach, Coral Gables, Miami... on his own and with the Mackle Brothers on large projects. His next project was Key Biscayne, but he died of a heart attack. Before he died he drove across the Rickenbacker Causeway with my mother to show her where there was going to be a city one day...  He was right.

My father was President of South Florida Real Estate Appraisers and taught Real Estate in College here in Miami.

I sold real estate... my brother is a real estate appraiser in South Florida.

Levi sells real estate.

How may Realtors do you know who know South Florida so organically intrinsically so genetically?

It's his birthday today.

Happy Birthday Levi.
(he doesn't know I'm writing this... spoiler alert.. I'm going to tell him after I post it...)

Give him a birthday present... buy a house ;) Hopefully in the Gables or that one he has out in the Redlands for sale...

Keep it going strong...

And, then there is his baby brother Zalmy who wants to become an architect in Miami...

And here's a  picture of me at my 2nd wedding some what tipsy and giving Levi a lecture. I told him to get married... marry his girlfriend...have children.. be happy. And.. know what? He listened to me... and did...

On his wedding day... on Biscayne Bay at a friend's beautiful home... (home was used in final episode of Burn Notice...just saying... ) so Miami Levi.

A year later.... out at a party with his beautiful wife..

Stunning beautiful wife... a Miami girl... stunning pregnant...
and the bris of a their baby Benjamin Miles... 
at Chabad of the Grove
son on the far right is the architect student... wink

That's life in Miami...when you listen to your Momma ;)

Besos Bobbi

Ps... watch the area in the Gulf of Mexico...

Musical treat... a year...

Wednesday, September 17, 2014

Beautiful CV Wave... Awesome Shape. Models Like it. Anniversary of Great Miami Hurricane 1926. Hugo 1989

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Okay,  to be honest, this is not the most conducive set up for tropical development.

You have an Upper Level Low swirling around in the Caribbean linked up with a feature that deserves a name as it has spent more time off the cost of South Florida that many drug smugglers or lobster fisherman. It's as if that area is searching for gold coins lost at sea in a hurricane that hit the Bahamas. It's parked. It's not moving. It oozes to the the right but it is anchored with a long rope and not leaving. Been watching it for the last month now. It's the only feature really spinning consistently in the tropics. Annoying.

The combined spinning of the two ULLs make it hard to get anything going south of Florida. That's probably good for South Florida as anything that would get going would grab a cold front  north and slam right into said Florida.

Note the cold front pressing down into the Florida Panhandle the 3rd week of September. Seems Mother Nature has her own agenda this year. September is for Hurricanes Darlin... not cold fronts that make it past Tallahassee. For real?

I tried to make the AC warmer in Raleigh, but the AC wasn't on.. I turned it off and opened the window. Sort of chilly out there too... Though round these parts cold fronts in September last about as long as cold fronts in Miami do in November. A day or so later it's warm again. Hey it might be warm by 4 PM...

I'm kind of thrilled when the wind actually blows some here so I'll take it. I miss my Miami breezes.

Let's look at Tallahassee since I brought it up for a good reason.

That's a wide spread this week. 93 as a high early in the week ending with a 64 for a low later in the week. Obviously there is another front after this moderating one.

There's a pattern and this is not the first front to blast it's way through or... to slowly crawl through a stationary phase before being shoved along by the next front that was stronger. Sort of like waves.. one is weak but wet, one is larger but dry.... finally one is just right.

The next wave that has model support (that means the NHC is watching it) is just emerging off the coast of Africa.

Let's take a look at it on satellite imagery.

O... for "Orgasmically delicious!!" O for "OH MY GOSH WHAT A BEAUTIFUL WAVE!!"

Cannot argue with that wave there... WOW....OH WOW....

But...why would it develop when the others before it didn't?
We are staying cautious with a yellow 10% chance for now.. keep watching.

Hurricane Hugo when it was just a wave coming off of Africa below.

This is the time for a Cape Verde Wave to develop.. .if not now when?
It has a beautiful shape...meaning it most likely has a low attached.
It's got the best shape I've seen since...Hugo or Donna or maybe I'm being silly..
because it's been a long time since I've seen a wave come off Africa that looks like this..

and... Cousin Sal is not as strong a factor as he was...

Something to think on ....

Besos Bobbi

Ps..Anyone who knows me knows I'm an expert in Miami History and Miami Hurricanes; tropical hurricanes that is though I do know some UM football. September 17th is so connected in my mind to the largest, strongest, hurricane Miami has ever dealt with head on.. in 1926

Model T Fords strewed across the sidewalks

Women hiding in bathtubs to ride out the storm vs bathtub gin.

A young city just turning 30 years old flattened. Down but never out ... Miami always comes back from adversity.

Biscayne Boulevard as always having a building boom... halted for clean up before the buildings were finished. A few were scaled back a bit ...but they were finished.

And, for those of you who know Haulover, Surfside... a bridge to no where... 

I'll blog more on this historic storm that defined a city. 

A city that rather than gave up named their football team at the new colleget that was just opening after the Hurricanes.

I'll write more about this later today and tomorrow. 

Stay tuned and keep watching that incredibly beautiful wave that is so far away and may never make the crossing ...or it might make it across. Time will tell but Sal is out somewhere sipping cafecito and gobbling up guava pastelitos! 1927 Miami made up postcards to sell the story of the Hurricane... and rebuilding better than before...

Monday, September 15, 2014

Odile & the Trof... More Flooding for SW Arizona Texas & Mexico. Cat 2 Edouard. Carmen Miranda & Cousin SAL Wears Blue Jeans

Let's start with the O Storm in the Pacific. 

I generally do not post on Pacific hurricanes, but one making a bulls eye onto the Baja Peninsular is a huge story as it happens very rarely. When they do it is because they are caught up in the wrong flow and rather than going out to sea...they curve back inland caught up in the larger atmospheric drama over the US.  The moisture from Odile is going to get caught up in the flow of early season fronts digging down across the Plains and moving towards the Atlantic. In this case Mexico, Texas and Arizona stand in it's way as well as points to the NE. 

Note the water vapor imagery below:

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See the image below enhanced with a yellow marker pointing out the direction.

The blue squiggly line is where the front is and will go flat and stationary for days....waiting for the next front that is in the wings up by Alaska. 

Moisture feeds up and into the flow over the US...
More enforcement comes from the NW....
Edouard gets dragged into this flow 
for a while
and then goes
out to sea
with the front.

Weather is local.
The whole world's atmospheric patterns are connected.
Winter is coming.

This is much more of a late October pattern than a September pattern.

Note Odile made landfall the same way a Hurricane in the GOM would go North
or NW
or NE..

Odile caught the front.

Lows go to lows.
Lows stay away from highs.

Meteorology 101.
Keep it simple and sex.

Sexy loop below.. if it shows 

Dark red high pressure pushes Odile in land
Odile goes where the other Lows go
Odile follows the flow.

Great loop to stare at if you have the time.

Sometimes I wonder how this painting was made without the painter ever seeing an enhanced water vapor loop.

Water Vapor Image of Edouard and the rest of our part of the globe.

As for our side of the basin...

Just because there is no highlighted area in the Atlantic by the NHC does not mean they are not watching areas and so are many others. Trust me trees fall in the forest even if no one is around to hear them.

Note the circles on the "juice loop" when it's not looping. Those are all potential problems down the tropical road...if only one does what Edouard did and finds a way to strut his stuff in the Mid-Atlantic.  Sort of like Eddie ran off and left the band and is touring the country in a hot red mustang. While all the rest of the way ward waves wander west hoping hungering for fame.

Note the wave behind and below Edouard is trying... so is the one rolling off of Africa. Note the depression in the Pacific fell apart as Odile sucked up all the energy...and lastly note that if something gets into the Gulf of Mexico it will do what Odile did... it will seek out a front and a favorable air flow like a heat seeking missile.

Baja will take quite the hit as they are not built for hurricanes. Sort of like those beautiful homes on the Northern Outer Banks.. they are made for Northeasters not storm surge from the tropics with a Major Hurricane. Homes in Miami are made with concrete and hurricane tie downs and even then they go pop in the night if a Cat 5 calls but the homes up north or down in Mexico are not really made for a storm like Odile. Many of the palm trees went whoosh in the tropical night.

Is Miami Beach really ready for a remake of the 1926 Great Miami Hurricane?

Look at Ocean Drive on South Beach during that storm... a lot more water ...

(I always have a problem with this pic as I think it's Miami not MB but it's credited with MB)

The damage in the lobbies reminds me of the damage from Betsy on Miami Beach

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Truth is they don't dance like Betsy no more to misquote Jimmy Buffett. 
They don't make them Odile very often.

And...they don't make them like Edouard much this year...

Category 2 Hurricane Edouard


LOCATION...27.3N 55.5W

Will he make Cat 3? 
Stay tuned... 
check back soon...

Besos Bobbi

Ps.. To quote Ferris you didn't leave? Why are you still here? take a look at Cousin Sal who is loosening his grip on the Atlantic. If one of those waves wants to go for it... and take the dance might be a good time...

Where did the RED go??? 
Oranges and golds are on the tree leaves in Carolina
SAL has put on blue jeans... 

Bonus song for those who read this the whole way through ;)

Sunday, September 14, 2014

Hurricane Edouard? 65 Degrees in Raleigh.. really? Blue Jeans WXR

First off... Hurricane Edouard is approaching Hurricane strength in the Atlantic.

5:00 AM AST Sun Sep 14
Location: 24.0°N 49.7°W
Moving: NW at 14 mph
Min pressure: 992 mb
Max sustained: 70 mph

Edouard is the last man standing in the tropics today. All the invests are pretty much gone and the NHC is issuing advisories on his movement and forecasting him to become a Hurricane later today.


INIT  14/0900Z 24.0N  49.7W   60 KT  70 MPH
 12H  14/1800Z 25.0N  51.6W   65 KT  75 MPH
 24H  15/0600Z 26.2N  54.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
 36H  15/1800Z 27.5N  55.8W   85 KT 100 MPH
 48H  16/0600Z 28.9N  57.1W   90 KT 105 MPH
 72H  17/0600Z 33.0N  56.6W   95 KT 110 MPH
 96H  18/0600Z 38.5N  50.0W   85 KT 100 MPH
120H  19/0600Z 42.0N  39.0W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

Looking at the graphics from the NHC we see that Edouard will stay...out to sea.

So...that's story with Edouard

What else is going on in the tropics? Actually, a lot is going on behind the scenes but nothing that is ready to open on Broadway. Some waves that are practising their lines, steps and trying to get into character but they are far from prime time players. 

Years ago we all talked incessantly on "Invests" in private chat rooms and messaging. It all seemed almost weather spy like that we watched these systems no one knew was on the map before they became "vigorous tropical waves" or Tropical Depression. Now.. if I go a day without hearing the term "INVEST" I'll be thrilled. I want a hurricane or two or three poorly organized Tropical Storms to discuss ... not an INVEST. Yet, TWC has gone cray cray on the term Invest because there isn't much else to talk about in the Atlantic these days. Suddenly the term "INVEST" is all the rage and it's driving me cray cray.

Cray cray for anyone who does not have a few millenials in the family means CRAZY!  Tomorrow we will work on the term YOLO!

I'm digressing. Sorry about that but there isn't a lot to say about the tropics today.

A cursory glance (haha cursory...cursive.. something they do not know how to do..write cursive) shows convection in the Caribbean being kicked up by the ULL that looks more like a black hole to the center of the universe.

It's at the far left of the screen... better seen on the GOM loop, but i want to point out another feature in the Atlantic so staying with this one. Pinwheels of moisture swirling around just north of the tip of the Yucatan is one of the factors keeping the system that was over South Florida from forming. Choppy upper air pattern. 

The wave moving towards South America is flying under the radar. No real discussion by the models on it as they are watching the wave that just moved off of Africa. It will lift and miss Trinidad and it might be worth watching the rest of the day. It has a beautiful shape, pocket of moisture and a steadiness to it that many of the other waves have lacked. In 80s terms.. it's like Beyonce trying on gowns for the red carpet.

Sort of Neptunian goes Oscar look if you ask me..

We're just gonna call this a tropical wave because that is what it is...

Speaking of nice shapes... Edouard really does look good on the visible imagery this morning

SE of Edouard but NE of the tropical wave is the last wave off of Africa.. 
sort of a mini caricature of big brother Edouard up there..
or is it "son of Edouard" ??
Doesn't look like Fay...just saying.

It's a real tropical drama out there...stay tuned...

Both seem to be vying for our attention.

In the upper left part of the image above you'll see a cold front making it's way across the US.
Sort of sliced into my neck of the woods this morning and the windows are open... coolish air blowing in. 

Now let's talk model fantasies.. because most of the modeling this hurricane season has been just that, fantasizing. They have blown up and developed more waves than we have had exit Africa. I'm talking on long term modeling obviously. Short term they are pretty good. The goal was to raise the bar on long term modeling and they've failed this year. 

OBX gets hit by a tropical system ..and I mean on the money. As in pin the head on the donkey.


Note this hurricane like system gets there from the GOM....

Follow the red line... cruises straight up towards the Chesapeake Bay 

Click on the link below and hit forward...enjoy.  CMC model never wants to grow up. But, sometimes it gets it right gets some things right.

You will be happy to know that the GFS nor the EURO see anything like that happening any time soon. So... if you want to fantasize the Canadian is rich territory trust me.

Here's the only model ready for the public to see...

Oh wait that's strange why is there a small line off the coast of FL in blue? hmnnn

And, that's the truth of what is going on in the tropics...nothing that is really worth talking about just yet...except for Edouard swimming out in the Atlantic.. one beautiful fish storm.

Only thing I will say is some signs say "yes yes yes" while the NHC says "no no no"  which makes you wonder "oh oh oh" 

The image above shows the GOM in candy cane graphics meaning development likely...

Another indicator of tropical cyclone development is blushing purple in the GOM

Then again it shows a lot of areas where there is potential development 
until they come up against the harsh reality of the Atlantic this year..

Who do you trust?
My local wxr forecast insists the highs will be in the lows to mid 70s today.
So do I wear my jeans with a cute new tee shirt?
And, if I do...will I end up hot and annoyed because they underestimated the high temps?

Really?? A high 74? Really???

You can find your local city (if  you live in a big city) on Mike's site as well as tropical info.

Waves trying to roll in the Atlantic, but having problems.

New wave off Africa... uhhhhhh...
Honestly I'm going out... coming back to watch football (NFL football)
and...might peak at the wave in the Atlantic moving west towards the Caribbean..
Why? Because I've got nothing else better to do... tropically speaking...

Besos Bobbi

Ps.. yes i did spell check I left it that way on purpose ;)

As my daughter says.. summer isn't over until I say it's over..