Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Tuesday, October 27, 2020

Updated 11PM - 70 MPH Pulling Together in the GOM - Storm Chasers On the Road... Multiple Storms of a Different Kind. Zeta in the Yucatan On It's Way to Gulfport Area... Ice in OKC What Next?


Late night update. 

Zeta is a large, beautiful storm in the middle of the Gulf of Mexico headed towards landfall in Louisiana and Mississippi. Weather far to the right of the center could impact a wide area with strong squally storms and possible deadly tornadoes so everyone needs to pay attention to any changes in where the weather is going within the large area filled with strong weather associated with the storm. A hurricane is more than just the eye and currently the center is closing up and trying to intensify. NHC forecast discussion shows a solid hurricane at landfall, a fast moving storm means a hard slap of wind and wicked weather but flooding should not be a problem as it will be gone as fast as it showed up if the models all verify and there is tremendous agreement on this but that still means power outages, trees down and where there are large heavy wooded trees it could mean a large tree branch or stray pine crashes down on your home so keep that in mind.


Landfall still where we were looking this morning and the cone is fairly narrow due to model agrement. The system that this is hooking up with has left a legacy of misery and power ourages as ice, sleet and snow as left quite a footprint and power crews are out now trying to restore power and now Zeta takes aim on another area that has hurricane fatique and one wonders if New Orleans luck will run out avoiding severe damage this year.  Then after landfall this system moves rapidly up into the heart of the country.


Zeta moves fast with the front across the country.
That's a lot of big cities in it's fast track.


Watches and warnings are everywhere.
Far inland, due to the fast foward speed.
Strong winds will bring down trees...
...far from the coastline.
In Texas and Oklahoma ...Icy.
Red is for Zeta...


NHC goes with 85 MPH at landfall.
As of tonight at 11 PM.

I'll be online tomorrow all day.
Watching Zeta's every move...
...and that front diving down.
Then moving fast like in a sports car!

Stay tuned...
... NHC worried on inland impacts in Georgia.

Sweet Tropical Dreams.
Bobbistorm.









Clash of weather today.
Reed has to get out of OKC....
...to get to Zeta in Gulfport.


Meanwhile Josh is traveling too.
Trying to get "home"
Because he needed to hit both landfalls.



October is that kind of month.
You can get anything at the All You Can Eat Buffet!


And now for our photo of Zeta


Really a kind of beautiful October storm.
As most October storms are odd...
This is really almost November.

More on that November storm later today.
I have electricians at my house again......
...refixing something.

I'll update later today.

What next?

Ice?
Hurricanes?
No not Ice Hurricanes.
That's like a bad disaster movie.

Be back later.
Besos BobbiStorm 

@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram








Monday, October 26, 2020

UPDATED 8 PM HURRICANE Zeta - Most Likely Becomes a Hurricane in Caribbean. In GOM Races Towards the Front. Then Tropical Weather Mixes It Up with a System Producing an Ice Storm. No Not a Horror Movie. Just Sounds Like One. 3 Day Weather Mess Across the US




Cone from 5 PM

80 MPH


There's the cone for the next landfall.
Currently down by the Yuctan.


Full update in the morning.
and yes models still show an early Nov system.
In the Caribbean...
...same place, same channel.
Stay tuned...........







I'll update after the 5 PM Advisory.
Stay tuned.





10 AM 

1st Landfall for Zeta


A Tale of 2 Landfalls. 
Can I get a hurricane watch there?

2nd Landfall....
.... most popular location of 2020


Actually it's a 2 fer if this happens.
Louisiana and then Mississippi.
But cones can change in real time.


Models in the middle.... 
....note the track over the Mid Atlantic..
It's not just about the Gulf of Mexico.


It's being sheared.
So that center area that wants to pop an eye.
Is on the top of the system.
The  moisture being sheared South for now.
Everything changes in real time in October.


NW side of this image is WINTER STORM.
SE side of this image is ZETA

Look carefully at the whiter pine needles.
That's ice accumulating in Oklahoma.
Image above that shows that green swatch.



This is really a tale of two storms. In that I mean what it is now down in the Caribbean as it pulls together and tries to attain hurricane intensity as it aims towards the Yucatan again... and they have already been hit more than once this year and then it moves on more rapidly up towards the Gulf of Mexico where it cruises towards a second landfall along the coast as a front comes sweeping down the plains dropping freezing rain, ice and snow in various places as it tries to scoop up even more tropical energy via Zeta and then it barrels into the Middle part of the country.  The second storm is what becomes of the tropical energy mixed in with the strong diving trough carrying cold, winter weather as it moves towards Applachia and then punches East towards the Mid Atlantic States trying to impact as many cities along the Mid Atlantic that it can manage to mark off it's bucket list!

Wednesday Zeta approaches the coast.
Look at those winter weather warnings to the West.
Class of the seasons for sure.
Check that colorful offensive line....
Zeta gets sheared and gets absorbed in the front.
Thursday, the next day.
Where's Zeta the Tropical Storm?
It's cloaked in Winter Weather mode.


Friday the 3rd day of this weather trip.

Whoah check that out.
The whole huge mess is moving offshore.
A long blue sapphire cold front is draped across FL.
Cold wind is zooming down into Virginia...
Carolina.
NY NJ NE
It's all about winter.

This is your typical late October set up as storms zoom into fronts that gobble them up and keep on going faster than you can say "what the heck" and yes some debris is found and you wonder on what will happen on Halloween and Thanksgiving and you begin to contemplate what gifts you are buying your loved ones for the holidays.  It's a transformation from summer heat, tropical warmth evolving into cold, wet weather. Dreams of snow dance in your head and you wonder if you will see an Ice Storm this year or just snowflakes mixed with rain and then Lucy pulls the football away and you hear there is another storm that is forecast to form down in the Caribbean again.


Thats a long ways away.
Not THIS Wednesday.
November 4th in the Caribbean
But models spinning something up again!

2020 meets La Nina.

I wouldn't be surprised if a hurricane watch is posted for the Yucatan, though to be honest Zeta is battling some shear. As soon as it leaves it's warm, comfortable woom to move North it gets hit by shear. There's more shear out ahead of that wintry storm teasing Oklahoma with an Ice Storm so do not expect a wild eye making landfall but hey it's 2020 so really I don't count anything out.

I'll update in real time later today.

Sweet Tropical Dreams... or winter dreams if you want them?
Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram












Sunday, October 25, 2020

UPDATED! 11 PM Zeta 60 MPH Moving Very Slowly - Enjoying it's Safe Bubble Down in the Caribbean... Forecast to Launch N Soon Then Go Hyperspeed Towards Landfall on GOM & Into Appalachia


11 PM Zeta is not 60 MPH.

Hasn't moved much.

The song "do the hokey pokey" ...

...comes ot mind.


Zeta has spent the day trying to climb back to where it was doing a slow crawl over the same area yet the baronetric pressure has dropped and the winds are up to 60 MPH and it is forecast to possibly be a hurricane by the time it hits the Yucatan area ...then moves faster towards it's date with destiny in the Northern Gulf of Mexico.


I know this will change often but ...
...would be an ironic end to the 2020 season.

Let's look up close at that location.
Compare, contrast with earlier in the day.
Getting closer to @icyclone's Hurricane House.


Hey life isn't like a Hollywood movie, well unless it was inspired by real life events and I'm no longer holding a grudge, but if you could make an ending for this season wouldn't it be the most classic movie ending for Zeta to make landfall near @icyclone's Hurricane House with his perfect perch on his folksy porch to look out over the Gulf of Mexico at what should be a Tropical Storm after battling shear and lower water temperatures and just sit on that iconic rocker, watching the view thinking "this wasn't such a boring summer afterall"     THE END   The camera fades away to the sounds of the wind and the waves .... 

Easier to write a novel or a screen play than for the NHC to be sure which models are right and they are waiting for recon to go in and feed that data into the next few runs and well you know the drill. But time will tell as always and models are hungry for more Caribbean action down the road as ETA is the NEXT storm and that means we have 2 E storms in the Greek Alphabet. 2020 you have been amazing. Personally so glad I'm not graduating from High School this year... 2020 would be a real buzz kill for Senior Year. Personally, I had my senior prom at the Playboy Plaza... I'd hate to have to look back in time and tell my grandchildren "well we all got dressed up and did a Zoom Prom or we wore masks to the football field and well then as it was 2020 we did it again!

Sweet Tropical Dreams.
I watched the incredible documentary "537 Votes" tonight by Alfred Spellman and Billy Corben and others who made me relive that election that was made famouse for all the boys named Chad... and I got to watch old best friends talking and running and others screaming and I got to remember what Banana Republic Miami was that year .... who needs a muse for inspiration, just use Miami and the story tells itself. 

*** keep reading if you didn't do so I'll update Monday Morning***





 

Oh Zeta... Where are you going?


Leading with DaBuh here today. 
Where Zeta is forecast to be eventually.
Where it is now.


Almost looks like the base of a trough doesn't it?
Next trof up towards NW

The finish line as of Sunday Morning below.


That's from NHC interactive cone.
Can compare and contrast later..
Kind of like let's play NASCAR

The Iconic Vanilla Cone below.
No sprinkles, no sauce.
Single Scoop


Again let's look at the long term.
Because every city matters!


Inland impacts are always important.
But when a front mixed up with a tropical system...
...moves towards the Appalachians inland.
It can add an extra layer of misery.


If you are unsure where that is...
...it's really not just the South.
Anywhere that elevation plays a role in life.


Leaving that there to read it later ...
...i so love geography!

So this is my issue with the forecast.
It's been backing up vs moving forward.
Why? It's in a nice safe spot.
Low shear, warm water.
Why would it want to leave just now?
Eventually a front dips down 
and grabs it.
PULLS IT FAST up towards the GOM.
That's the forecast.

My thoughts explaining this below.


This safe sweet spot allows Zeta to intensify.
Consolidate, bulk up for it's journey North.


Bottom graphic.
Zeta retrogressing backwards.
Current movement vs forecast movement.
Models show the next chapter in this Greek Drama.



Models are generally tightly clustered.
So why did I bring up the Applachians?

Watch Zeta approach the coast.


Check that out... about to make landfall.
Next frame it's gone.
Absorbed by the front.
See?


The good news is it's forecast to move fast.
Localized flooding can be a problem..
...when you deal with elevation.
Mountains, hills, piedmonts.

My botton line with Zeta on Sunday at Noon is I'm not 100% sure what it will do as we are getting way deep into late October and this is looking more like a November system that more likely does what it wants, what the atmosphere allows and surprises are often an issue this time of year both politicaly and weather wise.  It could get strong fast where it is or upwelling could become a problem as it is barely moving or it can keep backing up and the ledge of Central America could become more of a problem than the tip of the Yucatan. Not to say I'm not a believer of the end game trip North but it's too busy tailgating to care about the start of the game if you know what I mean?

And if it doesn't develop into a beautiful, tightly wound up system then the shear from the approaching front will lift the weather away from Zeta and dump it to the East towards Florida and tornadoes are very prone to develop in systems that aren't formed well and merging with a cold front. Because when all that warm tropical air meets the cold, dry air of the front ...something's gotta give. It's a perfect set up for Severe Weather.

Stay tuned and watch for any deviation from the forecast movement by the NHC because every cone gets adjusted in real time and by the time it gets to where it's going.... we may need some sprinkles and whipped cream... miniature candy corn even!

Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram.

Ps... another system is forecast to develop after this one in the same general area but different name, different front, different time on the calendar. Come Monday... late in the day... we should know more about what Zeta will or won't do. But for today... have a really wonderful, happy Sunday making memories and hopefully doing what you want to do vs what you are forced into doing. And, ya see that applies to Zeta also...what does it really do?  Doesn't he look awesome intense in the video below?  You can't make up 2020 so just go with the flow and adjust accordingly... with music and a sense of humor!!




























Saturday, October 24, 2020

Tropical Depression 28 Forms in the Caribbean. Forecast To Catch a Cold Front Taking it to the Gulf of Mexico Coast. Next Name Up is ZETA

 



Tropical Depression 28 seems proud of itself.
Smiling down there in a sweet spot.
Spinning, getting its groove on.

NHC discussion said it basically looked good enuff.
Data from planes supported an upgrade.


Note water temperatures warm where it is now.


Currently has little shear.
Warm water.

A front has passed it by.
A high builds in for a bit.


Let's see what it looks like on Sunday.

Landfall to East of the current Cone is likely.
Cones change in real time.


Currently the timing is Wednesday night.
But it's down the road.
Waiting on the stronger front.

Worth mentioning here that models were less concise yesterday, a bit closer together tonight and who knows what they will show tomorrow. Is this is tightly wound up system or a hot mess on it's movement up through the Gulf of Mexico with shear from the approaching cold front shearing strong storms East over Florida while the cone aims currently towards Loiusiana? Also remember tropical storms and cold fronts are prone to create tornadic spin ups as the squall lines approach land so while this could come in between Alabama and the Florida Panhandle somewhere the weather may be worse around the Big Bend. And stray weather could stream across a wide part of Florida UNLESS it wraps up nice and there is less shear from the front. Let's see what 28 has under the hood and how strong the engine is around Monday.

Stay tuned.
Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram.













Friday, October 23, 2020

UPDATED 70% RED Invest 95L Forms in the Caribbean with High Chances on Being a Tropical Depression Over the Weekend While Epsilon Spins Out in the Atlantic. All Eyes on the Front. How Strong is it Really & How Deep Does it Go.

'

70% as of 2 PM
Recon scheduled for a Saturday Date.


It's got a look.
It needs more than a look.
But a look is better than nothing.


Better image below.


Has that rudimentary baby dinosaur look.
In the pocket... like a quarterback.


Those are the players.
The front futher to the NW.
The riff raff in the GOM
Invest 95L
To complicate matters...
.steering currents compete for it's attention.


One model shows 2 small centers .. kind of.


Kind of pulls up fast....
...not buying into that personally.

And if you want real fun.
Run this model.


That model basically takes Zeta like some old Volkswagon Bug it's Grandma left it from the early 70s up across Florida on a wild road trip along the coast, through the Everglades and then up through the Hill country after seeing all the sites it's always wanted to see.  Really you can't make this stuff up.

I showed lots of images because I'm at a loss for words really as there are any number of scenarios that can play out. If the front is that strong and dives down then it can definitely grab it. We can go from currently no shear to shear everywhere. It's just too early to tell the tale or promise you anything. 

It's there, it will up the ante for rain for the weekend in South Florida, Cuba and the Florida Straits. 




Again there is a circulation but then there's an area like a caboose it's got attached to it as well. That elongated area down to the SE bugs me. I'm not in love with it yet, but it definitely has my attention. Official forecast for Monday in South Florida is below.... so keep your eye on it. I'll update when I can i've got something really valuable to say.



Ps Models watching but they vary greatly






* * * 
Keep reading if you didn't earlier today.






















 


Isn't the world a beautiful place as seen from a model that looks as if it is painting a portrait more beautiful than any that Van Gogh even did and he did a whole lot of portraits! Hurricane Epsilon looks like a bright yellow sun up in the heaven and Invest 95L looks like a red scropion down in the Caribbean debating where it wants to go after it crosses Cuba. 


50% in the 2 Day as of 8 AM
60% in the 5 Day as of 8 AM
That escalated fast!



I went to sleep a bit late last night after the big debate and woke up around 5:30 AM and promptly fell back to sleep until 10 AM. I never sleep til 10 AM. After looking at what wasn't Invest 95L when I fell asleep I was greatly amused that overnight based on a few model runs and a "look" the NHC went from nothing to something really fast and we were suddenly at 60% in the 5 day and the 5 day would impact parts of Florida possibly so everyone is back on board the boat that barely 24 hours ago people didn't think would ever float.  


Visible Imager on the left of the "center"
Earthnull on the right showing a center ish area.
Shows a few things but won't discuss that now.
I wouldn't call it a strong circulation yet.
But it's getting there one hour at a time.

This is why I talk about a pattern set up and how it's better to watch the flow in the atmosphere more than just whether or not the EURO has joined the GFS in an unholy union creating a hurricane somewhere that everyone feels could actually form. It's late October and we watch the Caribbean and there has been consistent convection and Earthnull has showed a weak signature and models have given iffy support off and on so you ignore the models and you wait for it to develop and it it indeed it seems to be developing. Remember this is the same system the NHC pulled the plug on and then rushed to plug it back in once again as I pointed out the other day as all other agencies and sites were assigning possibility percentages as if it was the line in Vegas saying something will develop in the Caribbean eventually.

So let's look close up at Invest 95L
Looks a bit like a Scorpion currently.
Scorpions can have a real sting to them.


Models shown below.


Yes, they are not very helpful.
Well it lifts out of the Caribbean.
That is for sure.


It's on radar out of Cuba.
Cuba is watching it carefully.
As Cuba stands in it's way ....
...first stop on it's journey.

But where is it going really?


Here's our view from Zoom Earth.
A great site to use.
Note the huge front to the North.
This is the formation zone for what would be Zeta.


So the real problem is obvious and I've talked on it often online and here and that is it all depends on what the frontal boundary does and each model right now is feeling up one part of the elephant and putting out their own headline "ZETA HEADS INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO!" and another model is all excited and screams "ZETA SLAMS MIAMI!!!" and yet another model shouts "ZETA FORMS AND RUNS UP THE COAST OF FLORIDA"  and you think to yourself ..."wait, which coast the West coast or the East coast" and then you see the last model and that one shoots it off towards Louisiana and you think "oh no that can't happen again" and everyone all at once in a loud choir from their individual homes screams "when is 2020 gonna end??" and the answer is... not yet, it's not over yet so buckle up and settle down and get a grip and wait for this to form, wait to see how strong the front really is and wait for a few more model runs. 

It's also logical that something forms and heads into the Caribbean and the strong convection gets sheared to the East over Florida and we've seen that set up more often than the stars shine at night and the moon eventually goes full. Or it develops much the way the GFS said and EURO hinted at in long term models several days back and slides off of Cuba and moves towards South Florida and then does it go to the Bahamas or slide up the coast? It is possible if the front is strong that the front grabs it and runs with it up the coast, but what if the strong Halloween front doesn't go Boo and goes OOPS and stalls out and then what? Late October and early November bring so many odd possibilities track wise so let's wait and see what develops, where it develops and how strong the cold front is in real time. 




The GFS God Bless it is advertising snow in New Mexico and the Panhandles of Texas and Oklahoma, I've got friends there and the snow stole my attention from the blue tropical moisture in the Caribbean. Other models hint it stalls, falls apart or pushes through and stops and ....well whatever you get the idea, it's too soon to know for sure so check back later as the old Magic 8 Ball loves to say.




Oh and yes there is always that model.
Forms off of Miami Beach kind of....
... I can promise Florida gets more rain.
No matter where it forms nor where it goes.
I'll update later this afternoon...
...after the next model runs.
And the satelites fix themselves a bit.
But hey isn't this arty fartsy?


Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram