Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Friday, April 18, 2014

IF Today's Pattern Persist It Poses the Threat of Early GOM Tropical Storms

So much to say and so little time. So, going to let this loop tell the story for me with some facts that are not carved in stone ...yet ... they point to a story unfolding as the Hurricane Season unfolds.



https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8TtdW--jhAQ

One of the greatest songs ever written...or should I say lyrics ever written. It's a good version. I know, because my friend sent it to me and they only send the best.  Then again they know I like Sting.

See the storm forming across the Southeast... starts down at the bottom of the front in the Eastern Gulf of Mexico... drags wicked weather up through Florida starting at a line around Tampa... the low spins it's way into the Atlantic off the SE Coast.

That pattern has been carved in stone for the last several weeks if not months and as that pattern continues it's way into May and early June it lends a danger zone to Florida for the beginning of the Hurricane Season. There is a danger in years like this one of storms forming close in ..off shore.. rather than far away and staying out to sea.  If a storm forms in that part of the GOM.. it makes landfall, plain and simple though usually as a Tropical Storm or Category 1 Hurricane that comes earlier than usually expected.

Look at Alma from 1966... an early June Hurricane.


The first week in June... a Major Hurricane on the maps.
Happens... read on and find out how and why...

http://www.wunderground.com/data/storm_radar/stormwalletold/atlantic/atl1966-prelim/alma/Alma.pdf

snippet that is important to read :) in case you didn't click...



Seems to happen often with the name Alma 



Yes, it formed down in the Carib... ziggled around a bit south of Cuba and then moved north...

Why did it move north like that and cross North Florida where it did?

Let's give equal time to Wikipedia..

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Alma_(1970)

Now.. look at the satelite imagery.. 
Does it look familar?

Alma 1970



Look at the image at the top of the page...further north but way too similar...

Here I'll post it below again in a different form...


 Similar... but different.

Note today's system looks like a cold front, but feels like a Gulf Tropical Storm wanting to form...if only this wasn't April... and it was only late May or Early June.

Note also this system today reaches far...far....far down into the Caribbean where the water is way warmer than it is off the coast of the Outer Banks.


Watch that loop...

http://www.intellicast.com/National/Radar/Current.aspx?region=default&animate=true

Listen to the music.... song that goes on and on with the little coda and then the really fast beat...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tRwYQgk05DY

If the pattern today persists into Spring... the Atlantic Hurricane Season may not be waiting too long for Spring to finish....before it begins early and gets a head start before the El Nino to rival 1997 gets going later in the Hurricane Season. Sometimes.. Mother Nature gets the last laugh...

Time to start checking those tropical sites online if you ask me..

http://www.spaghettimodels.com/

Besos Bobbi
Visible Water Vapor - GOES East 12 hr Loop


Ps...to the little stalker who enjoys leaving spam on specific posts... thanks for reminding me how well I write somtimes ;) you are soooo annoying.





Wednesday, April 16, 2014

Passover Snow... Who Knows When Winter is Ending?? Snapchat Spring...


My kids in New York looked out the window and saw snow falling down....down....down... onto the cold, wintry ground on the 2nd Night of Passover. Later that evening after the meal as people walked home ... they walked through hail ... on April 15th...


May I remind you that April 15th other than being Tax Day is the Middle of April... way into what should be Springtime in New York and yet... winter refuses to go away.

This coming weekend is Easter... it makes me wonder who is going to get snow on their Easter Eggs this coming Sunday?


There is snow on the map... and rain... and only time will tell.

Spring comes this year...and spring goes... 
one day it's 88 in Raleigh..
the next day it's 34 with a freeze warning...

One day the buds are starting to bloom on the trees on Eastern Parkway..
the next day you are watching the snow fall on the benches where people played checkers the day before

Is it Winter?
or...
Is it Spring?

Sort of like a Snap Chat Spring. 
Not really enough time for WhatsApp or even a Twitter post.. 

If you see a tulip pushing up thru the ground...
take a pic FAST because snow will fall tomorrow...

We are officially one month away from the the EPAC Hurricane Season and 
6 months to go until the 2014 Atlantic Hurricane Season

Arthur
Bertha
Cristobal

are waiting somewhere in the wings....

wearing a Spring Coat in Pastel colors and white furry boots

Possibly this is Bertha...


or maybe this could be Bertha...


Or ...one of these cold fronts that move down south and linger around too long could be...

Arthur... or Bertha...



One of these days... whether Spring comes or stays or we go straight into Summer..
...one of these systems will develop and most likely this year it will be close in.
for a lot of reasons I will discuss in detail as we move closer to June 1st..
...for now... Keep Watching...



Besos Bobbi

Sorry I've been offline a bit while dealing with "Polar Pollen" apparently. If I didn't know it was from the pollen I would have thought I had bronchitis or pneumonia or sneezing hallucinations but they told me on TV that I had Polar Pollen. Luckily when the cold front plowed through dropping out temps down to 34 degrees it blew the pollen away :)  

http://www.weather.com/health/spring-allergy/not-again-what-pollen-vortex-20140415

Remember... if you see Spring... snap a pic fast and post it on snapchat fast... before it disapears again. 

Besos Bobbi

Ps... if you want feel free to blame it on the Red Moon... Eclipse of 2014... just prior to the return of the Polar Vortex..












Monday, April 07, 2014

More North Carolina Tornadoes... Eastern NC.. & Mississippi..




Good picture being passed around online tonight... 
If you didn't know better you'd think it was Kansas or Oklahoma.. 
trying to find out who took the original picture.. hate when people don't give credit where it's due..

Come on play the game.. 
Kansas, Oklahoma or Iowa??


Pic of the tornado from Mario Barolo in the Ponzer-Pantego area.


North Carolina...


What hits me is this a part of the world that got slammed with bad flooding after Hurricane Irene.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3JwcQqlW77s

That's not a house at the beach..........just so you know.

Here's a map:


Wider view... what we call "Down East" sort of like the Mainers do... 



That little orange-red dot is where the tornado hit.  Down East in the Pamlico River Basin and Pamlico Sound. Farm land... down near the river.. a place usually visited by Hurricanes more than Tornadoes, but it's been that sort of year so far this Spring.

Mississippi also had a twister today.


And the threat goes on... nice map posted daily on www.spaghettimodels.com

SPC Products Overview


Wicked weather is revving up as Spring clashes with Father Winter who doesn't want to go..

Those clashes create big storms in places more used to hurricanes ... 

Stay informed on the weather.. this Spring has severe weather reaching out into odd places.

Besos Bobbi

www.spaghettimodels.com

http://www.weather.gov/ 
(like the NHC just not shown on TV as much...)





Tuesday, April 01, 2014

Earthquakes 8.2 Chile, Tsunamis, Mudslides, Tornadoes & Missing Airplanes... Busy Day on Planet Earth




The map above shows how 99 smaller earthquakes in the last month ...were in retrospect... fore shocks to the larger 8.2 Earthquake just off shore North coast of Chile. It's also worth noting the quake was deep below the surface and they are very used to strong quakes in that region. Whether they saw the 99 quakes as fore shocks or not I can't say just yet, but they should have seen it coming. What worries me a bit is that the numerous quakes in the LA area could and I do mean "COULD" be fore shocks for a larger quake down the road in the near future.

Mother Earth is shaking her way into Spring and she's moving into April like a Lion not a Lamb.

Sometimes a 5.1 Earthquake is as strong as it gets. Sometimes a 5.1 Earthquake is a prelude to a much stronger event. Only time will tell. People need to be aware that a stronger quake could hit the LA area or anywhere in the general region as you can see from the map above... we are in a very active period right now.

And, we are not even going to discuss El Nino that may or may not be forming off the coast of Peru, Columbia and Chile. Nope.. not today. Too much on the geological plate here today.

There were fears a Tsunami would form and so far as I write this Tuesday night the threat seems to be fading. Still this is what the map would look like......if a tsunami was reported. There was a 6.5 foot tsunami in South America.. not huge but if it slams onto your beach you notice it.

Evacuations have been going on for the region and there have been another strong 5 aftershocks in the last few hours which shake loose what the last quake may have weakened. It's a process.


Do not believe early reports of "no damage" and "no deaths" as it is just too soon to tell. Tomorrow morning will tell the story as we know how bad the situation truly is..or isn't.  Sites of damages have been streaming in.. a church, a store... some one's home. Only time will tell.. not early reports on the news wire before the real reports have even had a chance to surface. And, remember it is very easy to have an additional aftershock that is the same strength or just a bit weaker than the 8.2 earthquake tonight. Happens often.

The mudslide in Washington is truly heart breaking if you stop and read up on it. A man was getting texts from his sister who just happened to be driving down the only real road in the area and ... he never heard from her again. The randomness of it all is truly hard to comprehend. A grandmother's body was found near her grandchild. It seems we need to know how to respond faster to mudslides in areas far from large cities such as this... in the way that we respond to building collapses in big cities. We respond to earthquakes, to hurricanes and to twisters faster than we do an area where the mountainside simply gave way in a sea of mud that carried with it and drowned everyone in it...in a muddy debris of temporary graves awaiting help to dig out the bodies.  You know.. we worry on hurricanes and volcanoes and it's the mudslides in life that will get you.  Don't mean to be so dark.. it's just true. I haven't written much on it, because... I don't want to. It's truly tragic. 28 people have died, 22 are still missing and the whole area looks a lot like school books pictures I saw from Mt. Etna...



I had a tornado warning the other night. One day I was in New Orleans grounded waiting for a bad squall line to pass through and the next night I was dealing with a tornado warning from the same system that blew through Nola. Mind you normally when I am traveling on Friday and I see a storm at the airport my first thought should be... I'm never going to make that connection. Instead my first thought was to drop my bags and start taking pictures. Instinct.  Weather Nation asked permission to use this picture on air.. told them to "go for it" and then it sunk in..


That's me just after they announced that they shut down the airport for lightning.. 
...it was shut down for a long time. I was an hour late getting out.

Luckily.....Orlando flights were also late and I caught my connection and got home.. 
.... just in time to enjoy the same line going through with a tornado warning.. 

There was two small twisters just south of Raleigh... happens.

To be honest..........I am going to write a long, intricate post on my trip to New Orleans where I gave the Keynote Speech for the Mariposa Cat Adjusters Conference. I had an amazing trip.. awesome. And, I got to meet a lot of the adjusters who work all the hurricanes I write about... and have tracked ...chased. 

Mariposa does a first rate, classy, professional job in all ways. I'm very honored to have been their Keynote Speaker. The conference was superbly put together. Incredibly, interesting speakers and presenters and it was all held on the Creole Queen. Afterwards we took a trip up the river or maybe down the river. Just so much to say. 

But tonight this is about the Earthquake in Chile. At least 2 people have died and am sure that number will climb higher. And, there is no way of knowing how strong the rest of the aftershocks will be...

When you live along the Ring of Fire.. you deal with earthquakes eventually. When you live along the Hurricane Coast of the US from Galveston to Maine... you get hurricanes eventually.

Will we eventually find the missing Malaysian Plane? I like to believe so.. but only time will tell.

It occurs to me tonight watching CNN's coverage that the "cone" so to speak for the search keeps getting moved .. no yanked around out in the South Indian Ocean faster than the NHC would EVER move a cone around the Atlantic Ocean.

The NHC prides itself on continuity, professionalism and caution when forecasting a tropical cyclone. 

This investigation on the missing plane has been just the opposite... poorly put together like 5 or 6 blind countries trying to find an elephant in an area larger than the USA.. and we have no real zero proof that it took the southern route. We have lots of hypothesis and no real hard facts. We have data from the pings... which is a word we have come to know much like the phrase "hanging chads" and I wonder what other data is not being shared or has not surfaced. 

It's April and yet this is not an April Fool's post.. it's real and its here. 

My dogwood tree is beginning to bloom and the Loblolly Pines are threatening to dump their  maize colored pollen on my deck and my dogwood.. It is supposed to be 82 degrees tomorrow as a high. 

Twisters and Severe Weather is here to stay and floods will be an ongoing problem this Spring. I heard someone say to me recently "no the forecast is not for bad floods just small ones" and I asked him what he meant. He said "not historic" and I smiled and told him that if the flood floods out your town and your home it is indeed historic. It's all a matter of perspective.

If you live in LA today you have to be thinking "oh Lord could that have been a fore shock" and if you live in Miami you are thinking "oh Lord we are almost to the hurricane season and we barely had a winter" and if you had are in Chile ... everything else is far, far away and not important as you try to put your life back together again.

Hello April... what else do you have in store for us I wonder?

As for me..........I ordered some summer clothes from Victoria's Secrets and I'm still recuperating from my whirlwind, wonderful trip to New Orleans. Beautiful city by the river in any weather it's incredible. 



https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yDDkUE8GjZI

I had a long talk with a lady at the Historical Museum there who went through Hurricane Betsy as a young teen about to leave for college in Morgan City, Louisiana. Great interview and another side of Betsy that I never saw... the side that hit Louisiana.

I'll be back tomorrow with hard facts on the Earthquake and the weather, but probably not the missing plane  My youngest son just keeps texting  "never gonna find that airplane' ... well ... time will tell... 

Besos Bobbi

Ps... look at a partial list of fore shocks that occurred prior to the 8.2 Earthquake. Did they see it coming? Does anyone see something coming they do not want to open up their eyes to see? Hmnnn?








Wednesday, March 26, 2014

East Coast Storm & Hurricane Trackers New Orleans Mariposa Cat Adjusters Conference

sat_wv_east_loop-12.gif (640×512)

This big huge, fast moving storm has gotten all the hurricane people online excited... it's not a hurricane but if feels like a hurricane. And, isn't it all about how it "feels" when it comes to something like tracking weather?

Yes.. it is, trust me.

Sort of gets the blood rushing



Every weather person online was showing off their new.. beautiful... images for their websites that will be used later in the hurricane season. Like to put these pics below on my wall... Wall Wxr Art ;)



It's a tightly wound up storm.. fun to watch as it moves far off the coast fast...

As for me.. I'm watching the weather in the Gulf of Mexico as I will be traveling to New Orleans today to be the Keynote Speaker at the Mariposa Adjusters Conference.



I have to tell you... I'm looking forward to hearing what they have to say..

So often I work with people BEFORE the story.. tracking the storm, putting advisories into my own words and looking for information many need to properly prepare to hunker down for a land falling hurricane.

These people are the first step in putting things back to "NORMAL" which really IS an illusion but we do so love our illusions don't we...

And..in the South Indian Ocean they are finding debris that may or may not be from the missing plane.

Time will tell.. it ALWAYS does..

Besos Bobbi
Ps...Winter...please just go away..........



Saturday, March 22, 2014

Cyclone Gillian, Search for HM370 & Ameila Earhart's Missing Plane from 1937. New Orleans...




This very beautiful cyclone named Gillian is spinning out in the South Indian Ocean far from any inhabited area ... with the exception of Christmas Island. Unfortunately it isn't going to help the search for the "objects" that could be from the Missing Malaysian Flight HM370.

You know that saying... "when it rains it pours"  ... for all of you who always wondered where Christmas Island is... there it is..



http://www.smh.com.au/national/tropical-cyclone-gillian-hits-christmas-island-20140322-359ou.html

Interesting to see how different things look in another part of the world than ours..


Christmas Island is one of the areas where conspiracy theorists kept asking if you could land a plane. The weather is going to to down hill there soon. Truth is we are all conspiracy theorists right now as we have no real knowledge of what may or may not have happened...so we are all guessing. By the time you read this in the morning.. maybe we will know more, but as of Saturday Night Geraldo Rivera and crew on FOX have not yet figured it out.  First of all you need a body, a weapon and a suspect in most murder mysteries. In a plane crash it helps to have debris and a ping, ping from the black box which seems to sound more like a heartbeat oddly. Go figure there. Who knew? Now we do. 


Up close and personal..




Beautiful storm.. sad we are watching it because of the ongoing search and mystery of the plane that has caused the biggest search it seems since Ameila Earharts plane went down in 1937. Kind of odd to me. HM370 suffers the same fate as Earhart's plane in 1937. Maybe some numerology thing there... it's not my thing so you'd have to ask someone else...

http://www.nbcnews.com/science/science-news/underwater-search-amelia-earharts-plane-will-resume-2014-f8C11391271

A good site to use always is http://www.hurricanezone.net/as they do a nice job of covering the whole wide world.


Note our side of the world is fairly quiet with regard to the tropics...

Despite the pear trees being in bloom... winter is still refusing to leave ...

Forecast for this coming Tuesday.. don't shoot the messenger please.....


I don't want to hear anything about winter weather causing travel problems..

I'm due to leave Raleigh on Wednesday for New Orleans so speak at

Mariposa Cat Adjusters Conference 
and looking forward to hearing what other speakers have to say
about what happens AFTER the storm hits.. 


I am so looking forward to this trip.. 
... please no winter weather problems anywhere.. 


I can handle tropical weather, but I am super done with cold, wet, winter weather..

Besos Bobbi
Ps please let me click my heels 3 times and wake up in New Orleans... and when I get back to NC.. please let the dogwood tree be in bloom... 

http://events.r20.constantcontact.com/register/event?oeidk=a07e7b3zea3f5cdb355&llr=8wkyw4jab






Thursday, March 20, 2014

Search for HM370 at the Bottom of the World..South Indian Ocean.. "Bobbing Object 78 Feet Long"



Going to use a weather satellite to illustrate the region where the suspicious objects are that may or may not be part of the missing plane. This satellite which helps with forecasting tropical development during the Hurricane Season is just as useful predicting what the weather will be like in the search zone later this week.

The search zone which includes planes, boats and probably submarines is at the bottom of the world.. or at least the South Indian Ocean. And, if this is the debris that floated to the surface we have no idea right now where it floated from...



Around 11 PM last night it was announced that they had BREAKING NEWS from Down Under that pieces of the plane may have been located. They say "may" as all they have right now is satellite imagery of a large object around 24 meters which translates to 86 feet long ...give or take a few inches. It was said to be "bobbing up and down" in the water...coming up to the surface, disappearing again. That in itself brings up a lot of questions ...

a) wouldn't it have sunk if it landed there over 2 weeks ago?
b) isn't it too big?
c) isn't there a lot of "ocean junk" in that part of the ocean...an area infamous for junk and debris..
d) how did it get there (hate that one.. obviously it flew there....)
e) why there?  If it is the plane we will find out in time...

And, the questions go on and on and on... and truthfully we have no answers.

Can you tell from the pictures below? Drudge is of course skeptical and probably worries this is some sort of ruse where we move our satellites to get a better picture while the real plane is elsewhere being fitted for a terrorist attack. I'm guessing. A lot of people have raised that question and wondered "hmnnnn" and can't argue their logic.  What do you think?



Another very good theory was put online last night regarding a possible emergency on the plane and the pilots being overcome with the passengers as it continued on automatic pilot until...it crashed into the sea.
Based on the possible fuel left on the plane it is worth noting it should have gone further than this possible crash site. Something to think on...

http://www.philly.com/philly/news/Veteran_pilots_theory_on_missing_plane_goes_viral.html
A very well written article and a very logical possibility for what may have happened.. if this is the crash site.

Next we think on the ocean currents that could have moved the bobbing objects to that spot and see if it is logical that this would be objects from the plane. The image below is the ocean currents specifically for March and April...as there are variations from month to month in that region of the world.


Understand there is something known as an Ocean Gyre there (think Sargasso Sea in our part of the world)
Also known as a "trash vortex" 

http://www.greenpeace.org/international/en/campaigns/oceans/pollution/trash-vortex/
http://geography.about.com/od/globalproblemsandissues/a/trashislands.htm

(sad we pollute this beautiful planet so badly... sad but true)

These gyres are everywhere...it's in the bottom left of the picture below..


The weather there is not very good. A cold front just past through and there are high winds and bad surf.
It's a very remote area of the world to have to do a search of this type..

http://www.geelongweather.com/wxsatimagewvcolorwa.php
Good Water Vapor Loop.
Amazes me how online weather experts last night were saying how weather shouldn't be a problem??
Wrong.. well it was very late in the middle of the night...


From the link above ....was the pilot looking for a safe landing site and he simply ran out of time? Only time will tell... 

"Actually he was taking a direct route to Palau Langkawi a 13,000 foot strip with an approach over water at night with no obstacles. He did not turn back to Kuala Lampur because he knew he had 8,000 foot ridges to cross. He knew the terrain was friendlier towards Langkawi and also a shorter distance."
Read more at http://www.philly.com/philly/news/Veteran_pilots_theory_on_missing_plane_goes_viral.html#Td7TMxbsw1sGBL0C.99

I'll be back with more information as it develops and more on Spring...when Spring shows it's sunny face later in the day. For now it's 44 degrees... and I don't consider 44 degrees at 9AM very spring like :(

Besos Bobbi
Ps... Keep in mind prayers for the loved ones of the passengers lost on HM370... they need our prayers if it is or isn't the crash site...either way they need our prayers.