Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Monday, March 18, 2024

Hello Monday .... Winter Fights Back as TemperatureE Drop Again.... Weekend Storm off E Coast/FL a Possibility. Looks Like Hurricane Season BUT It's Really Spring Equinox!

 


Cold Night in the South..........
.....and much of the USA today.
Despite Spring Equinox Tuesday Night!
And yet many of us are watching models.
As a LOW is forecast to form in GOM
Down near Florida and well keep reading.


Yes, this is always running somewhere.
Today it looks oddly like Hurricane Season.
Illusion I'm sure..........
....but a Low forms near FL and moves up to OBX


Red and Purple = Way too much rain.
This is the 7 Day Forecast.
Miami has Ultra Festival this weekend.


Old image.... it's in Bayfront Park - Miami


A beautiful venue.

Will it rain?
Could rain.
Maybe.

Depends on this Low ....
...where ...when and how it forms.
I wouldn't go into why.


IF this verifies and IF is a big question.
Above is Friday.
It crosses South Florida ...
..rides up the coastline.
Below is Saturday.


IF it does this than Friday will be messy...
...a front tries to push through.
Weather could be nice.
But.... still a crapshoot!


NWS Miami long range discussion
Potential for heavy rain this weekend.

Is this tropical?
No not really but....
...has everyone's tropical pulses racing.



Dabuh... can't stop loving that man ;)
Seriously he's always watching.

So stay tuned.


Set your clocks.
SPRING 2024.

75 Days til Hurricane Season.
Stay tuned!!


Ya have a plan for the pets???

Get one.

Sweet Tropical Dreams.....
...Springtime dreams........

BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram.

I have a brother that loved this song.......
....he's very into his dog always.




























Friday, March 15, 2024

Spring Begins When?????????? In the SE It's Spring! In Colorado Its WINTER.... How Bout You? 78 Days til Hurricane Season.

 


Does that radar image scream SPRING?
Does to me.
Again weather is locational.


In Denver no one is singing Spring.
That's snow.
Not muffins with  marshallow frosting....


In some places tulips are pushing u thru the snow.
First year in school in NY I saw that.
A little yard in Brooklyn covered in snow...
...and 3 little tulips pushing their way up.

In South Carolina..........
......pollen storm going on.
This is pollen NOT snow.
Not even yellow snow...


Seriously pollen falling like snow from the Pines.

When does Spring begin in your mind?
March 1st "Meteorological Spring"
March 19th Spring Equinox.
Flowers blooming?
Trees budding?
Spring Training?
Time to plant tomatoes??
Pine Pollen paining the world yellow?
First sighting of migrating birds flying back up North?
Aries Season?
Seasonal Spring holidays?
Mardis Gras?
Purim?
St. Paddy's Day?
First time you put on flip flops on an 80 degree day?
Bees and butterflies reappear?
Dogwood Trees in bloom??
Restaurants change the menu???


This is what you get if you ask Google



According to Google....
...Spring starts on March 19th!

I bought shamrocks at the market.
They look very green and spring ;)

How bout you?

78 days til Hurricane Season....
... How close does it get before you prepare?

Dock tips for Hurricane Season 

Sweet Tropical Dreams, 
BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter

It's good to want to sail away...
...but gotta know what to do if...
a Hurricane is coming your way!










Thursday, March 14, 2024

Wild Weather Day!! SNOW!! Tornadoes!!! HAIL!!! 80 Degrees in Carolinas......... Must be March Close to Spring Equinox as Weather Goes Wild!!

 

Listening to Ryan Hall Y'all as I type this.
He's very good at what he does....
...and he has so much to walk about today!

I took the day off today to "rest up" as I'm getting over some 48 hour thing and as I can never sit still too long I reorganized everything in the bedroom and took a break from the news. Eventually I remembered it was supposed to snow in the Denver area, looked on Twitter and yes thatsnow storm nailed the area and spoke to my son there who sent me pics ...tho not allowed to show them so here's the pic of the Interstate there.


People stuck over night on the highway.
Why? This was a well predicted storm...
Schools were even closed in advance of it.
My son has close to 6 inches in his backyard.
It looks like a winter wonderland and it's not over!!


Hail and Severe Weather.

And in Raleigh it's Summer like........



My caption is .........well "that happened" though the rest of the week the highs are politely in the 50s and 60s and this is why many people here are sick with some sort of cold as the boomerang weather temperatures are driving crazy.

One year ... years back we woke up to a random, surprise dusting of snow in the morning in this part of March and in the afternoon it was close to 80 degrees. Yup.




So going to listen to Ryan Hall, I put the news on mute and now I'm cleaning out my notebooks and organizing. As Miss Scarlett once said,  "tomorrow  is another day" or something like that. I'm not totally over the 48 hour thing and taking meds and if I stay on I might get silly so I'll leave you with today's  Hurricane Preparation Tip. 




https://www.floridagofishing.com/boating-preparing-your-boat-for-hurricanes.html This link is if you have a sailboat, it gives valuable advice in case of an approaching hurricane later this year! 
\
From Ye Olde Google!
(how old is Google I wonder....)

Sweet Tropical Dreams,
BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter
sorry on any typos - really tired.



Link to Ryan Hall currently live for a while this Thurday
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kpNdqwioL54  this link should be good for a while on Thursday.

Wednesday, March 13, 2024

Smooth Sailing Weather Today ... BUT.... 2024 Hurricane Season Will Change That. Busy Above Average Season Predicted. Boat Prep List Today

 


No tropical problems today in our world.


Some fire dangers out West.


Smooth sailing as some would say.

In  my world....
Low here was 35 yesterday....
....the high 75.

This time of year you can get any temperature you want it seems in the piedmont of the Carolinas. I brought summer clothes back from Florida and have my winter clothes still out. Transitionary periods are prone to sudden wild temperature swings and wild weather. It cools down, it warms up and then the next cool or cold air mass crashes into the warm humid zone and trouble often follows. For chasers who specialize in Tornado Weather this is their time of year. For people who obssess on hurricanes, this is the time of year to make plans to put into action should you be in the cone of a 2024 Hurricane.


Somewhere someone is always asking .....
...about the 2024 Hurricane Season.

What do we know for now?
It's forecast to be an above-average season.
El Nino leaving.
La Nina coming on strong??

I've read many scary headlines promising the Season from Hell and while it is definitely possible, it's way too early to know how much of a hurricane hell we will see indeed. There are so many variables in every hurricane season. Yes, La Nina means more hurricanes usually but there are possibilities that change everything.

Size? Big, huge hurricanes that take up a large area geographically such as IRMA and FLOYD or small, tightly wound systems such as Andrew that looked "small" in comparison to Floyd! Andrew was a rather dry hurricane with fierce winds and vortexes yet Floyd was huge and once it slowed and rained itself out over North Carolina flooding far inland as well as at the coast was an added punch in the gut for many small towns. We saw this also with Florence that traipsed across the Atlantic and then slowed down and well Jim Cantore was kind of trapped in Wimington for longer than he planned to be there...

Track? Say a positive environment for hurricane development lingers off the African coast and storms form far out near the Cabo Verde Islands and nothing blocks them from gaining latitude and then we have strong storms that are "fish storms" staying out at sea vs moving steadily WNW and slowly intensifying. 

Blocking patterns and TUTTs often open up doors in the Mid Atlantic that allow for hurricanes to go North and other times they inhibit development. Patterns can set up that help hurricanes zooming Westbound go straight into the Caribbean and slam into Central America, this last year we had a few that reformed in the Pacific.

Frontal boundaries that pick up hurricanes and sweep them out to sea or fronts aligned differently that bring them into Mississippi and Florida, Alabama included.

Sometimes storms form fast and then they run into other storms, there is only so much energy that can exist in the same spot and the shear from a nearby stronger hurricane rips developing tropical waves behind them apart or send them off course with a funky Fujiwhara dance move!

Alignment. Vertical alignment is important, many a beautiful tropical wave falls victim to not being vertically aligned and never gets it together. Or worse, for chasers, an Invest makes it into the Caribbean and never ever forms with all that potential just whoosh gone.

SAL? Sometimes SAL is stronger than other years and it dries out the whole basin, especially out where Tropical Atlantic hurricanes often form. We had this set up recently when predictions were for a bumper crop of hurricanes in the Main Development Region yet Saharan Dust reigned over the area drying out the atmosphere.

Saying we will have more hurricanes is easy. 

Saying where they will be when it's still March is too far away even for the long range GFS :)

You have one job in a set up such as this year.

Prepare, Plan, Prioritize and Put your plan into action. The weather is fine, Memorial Day Sales are filled with items to hide away in your Hurricane Supplies locker. Lock it up, trust me it's the only way things will be there when you need them. Try Dollar Stores and chains such as Big Lots to find deals for items that won't expire any time soon that you may pick up for pennies on the dollar. Every time we leave Miami the kids give us cases of water "for the road" and as we can only drink so much....that's now piled for emergencies :)

Seriously use this time wisely. As we get closer to the season more reliable studies and predictions as to which part of the basin may have to worry more than another part. Til then enjoy Spring Weather, enjoy March Madness and remember to plan for hurricane season coming in 80 days that's a little over 2 months away and often we have early, pre-season action.

If you have a boat........today's check list is for you!


Link down below.

Sweet Tropical Dreams,
BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter

In 2023 we lost Jimmy....
...but he's in our hearts and soul still.


Forever and Always..........






Tuesday, March 12, 2024

Back From Vacation in Miami.........Back in Raleigh Before Pine Pollen Pops and Good to be Home. Spring 1 Week Away (Officially on the Calendar) and Hurricane Season 81 Days Away

 

Yes, Miami is beautiful.
Sunlight on the water is awesome.
Palm fronds swaying in the tropical breeze.
It was a huge trip for many reasons.
And home now in Raleigh.
Red leaves unfurling on the Maple Tree.
Blue Skies. 


The current freeze frost line today.
Honestly most of the Winter it's been like this.
Elevation and latitude dictated snowfall in the South.

I went to Miami for a wedding, again, and spent some time with the kids, grandkids and taking in the city I love but the city I left when I got remarried and moved to North Carolina. In between is the city of Savannah that I love with all my heart and soak it all up every time I get a chance. Raleigh is home now, one of my homes and I'm in tune with the flow of life here from season to season. it's common to long for winter in the middle of a horribly hot summer and as Spring begins to show we begin to debate what we will do for the summer.

In Miami the seasons are subtle and only noticeable to the locals. Mango Season is in full bloom and driving everyone mad. Many Miamians love mangoes and many hate them :( and as it was mentioned online they are related to poison ivy and some are outright allergic to their skin though not the fruit. In 1992 everyone was upset and weirded out as there were 3 separate mango blooms (why I don't know) but after Andrew slammed into Miami people began taking the 3 mango blooms as some sort of omen. 

Football Season is over and Miami Dolphin Fans hold their breath on every news of a new trade and are already annoyed next year is being seen as a "rebuilding year" vs  the "year we go to the Super Bowl" and yet everyone is happy to see Spring Breakers leave except for the bars and restaurant owners. I saw more crazy things on the highway there this trip than ever including a bright orange sports car going Northbound on I95 try to leave the Express Lane where they aren't supposed to and spin out 3 cars in front of all of us going 70 MPH and so the orange car took a hard right turn crossing 3 lanes of traffic and not hitting one car and after it stopped spinning it came to rest facing Southbound.  Amazingly it did not cause a NASCAR sort of crash (Thank God) and as we drove past it fast I knew what every person who saw it was thinking "stupid Spring Break" and when I told the story to anyone they indeed said "stupid Spring Break" and yeah that happened. I saw I95 constantly cluttered with police vehicels taking people in .... and no I didn't go to South Beach but yes I went to Bal Habour and Surfside and enjoyed the incredibly tropical views.

I was in Coconut Grove for a Wedding. I love Coconut Grove. My husband and I walked a groom down the aisle to remarry his first wife in a beautiful historic synagogue that several of my sons attend. It was a very small ceremony, simple, beautiful, fast and then it was done. Yes we had Sushi afterwards with artisan bread and a bit of other dips. 

And, I'm writing this the way I am today for a reason. It's subtle.

To everything there is a season under heaven. If you want you can say stars that's okay but that's not the way the song goes. And the saying is true and in parts of the USA ...there is such a thing as a time to worry and prepare for Hurricane Season.  Inland concerns such as rivers flooding in North Carolina far from the coast and along the beautiful coastline in Florida that is especially prone to land falling tropical systems.


Lush, verdant, tropical Simpson Park.
5 blocks from my house growing up.
My cousin and I would go down and sneak in.
Just basically because we were told not to.
:) 

So this park not far from where I lived as a child is so Miami tropical, a paradise of local, native plants that have been there forever with time off for various hurricanes that ripped it apart and then as things do in Miami...........they grow back. This section explains how it grew back from the awful 1926 Great Miami Hurricane that hit Miami dead on not down in Kendall as Andrew did in 1992. 


Note how close it is to the Bay.





In 1835 a massive, dangerous Hurricane with no real name.... slammed into the shoreline during one of the Seminole Wars when few people lived there - the land was used for plantations, farming and nothing more. The botanical records show that the storm surge went all the way into what is now Simpson Park but was then a mangrove and hardwood hammock tumbling down all the trees, vegetation and moving a bit further inland. Now that area is densely populated, the real estate is worth a fortune that any third word country would love to have and yet so far it's been lucky. In 1926 many of the trees fell down and as the above article says it was used as a dumping ground for trash and there was a lot of trash and debris. Ships were dumped far inland on the lawns of private homes built in the Roaring 20s for parties not a strong Category 4 Hurricane.

There is an empty lot near there, across the street waiting for a huge new skyscraper to be built later this year or next. The lot is used for food trucks and local joggers jog along the shade provided by Simpson Park because Miami. Most of the tourists don't care as long as they are not there when a hurricane hits. Most of the newbies from other places are clueless and usually the old timers know in any given year a Major Hurricane, even a Category 5, can happen.... history repeats.


Huge Banyon Trees and behind them...
...is Simpson Park.
98 years since a Major Hurricane slammed into it!
Below is the cute real plane food truck.
Because Miami is magical.....


There's an old fuselage of a plane on a flatbed truck.
A new level of food truck.
You enter, walk up the stairs.
Order and they bring it to you.
And you sit in the sunshine in a perfect world.
Or what seems like a perfect world.
And it's perfect cause its March.
And there is no hurricane........
......and Miami is not in a Cone

If you go to Miami.....and you should!
Try it out.
Enjoy.


You really gotta see it.
Just go before the Rainy Season.
And not Hot August day...
and definitely not Hurricane Season.


To everything there is a season.

A time to travel to Miami for a wedding and a chance to see my kids and grandkids as well as the city I love and left. Winter time, still cool at night and hot during the day and that will soon change. If you have a chance go fast before the Monsoon Season which comes before the Hurricane Season.

This blog is moving into the Pre Hurricane Season when I attempt to show the importance of Hurricane Prep so that you know where you must go if you need to evacuate or how to hunker down and ride out the storm.

Long blog today. I'm under the weather healthwise as I'm fairly sure that several of the grandkids did not have an "allergy" and were sick with something that I caught and am working my way through getting better. I took the day off to rest, heal and work my way through a ton of to do lists.

But knowledge is power and before you prepare you have to know, realize and be aware that this could be the year Miami or Tampa or Jacksonville or New Orleans or Clearwater or Morehead City North Carolina  or Beaufort South Carolina or up the road in Virgnia or the Del Marva........or out West near Houston Texas.

History repeats.
If it's happen before it can happen again.

Are you aware of what you need to do to prepare for the Hurricane and for the aftermath?



From Google - after the 1926 Hurricane.

After Andrew from Google.

Get a plan!
Make a list!
Prioritize!!
Enjoy the sunshine.


Be in the now but prepare for Hurricane Season.


Gonna show different guides as much as possible.

Start with a hand operated can opener!!

Besos BobbiStorm


Always loved that song.
The coffee was good too!!

So be warned... you know what you're gonna get from me.

Lots of discussion on Hurricane Prepartion.
Thoughts on 2024 Hurricane Season.
It'll put on a show for sure.

Incredible report for anyone that loves nature and Miami History.

Friday, March 01, 2024

2024 Hurricane Season - 3 Months Away. Winter Weather UP in the North, The South Looks at Spring. What Supplies Do You Really Need for Hurricane Season? My Thoughts....

 


This is current weather.
East of the Mississippi mostly.
Let's say Hurricane Country.

Strong rainstorms in New Orleans.
Snow to the North.


You can see the frost and freeze line.
Doesn't that sound like a shake of some kind?

Today is March 1st, we call this the Meteorological start of Spring, and you can see the further South you go the more chance you have of Yellow Pine Pollen and trees blooming. Yes, the Cherry Blossoms bloom early, but the bulk of beautiful blooms begin as we move through March into April. In the Carolina that means the Day Lillies or as most people call them "tulips" push up from the ground and in the Miami area the few trees that lose their leaves such as frangipangi, poincianna and jacaranda trees begin to show color; it's a process.

Speaking of a process..........the constant early predictions for the 2024 Hurricane Season are out and about and some are outright terrorizing. Fancy graphics showing us going through the regular list and into whatever list the NHC will use this year. If you go to YouTube, for example, you will see a list such as this.......


That does get the blood pumping doesn't it?
Don't let it scare you....
... just prepare yourselves!
Use this time wisely!
I feel like this should be ....
...Hurricane Season brought to you by Home Depot!


A look at the sea surface temperatures today.

People look at this and either scream "EARLY SEASON" and ask about early storms or say "it's March not May."  Let me say, that while the water near Africa today does look HOT, HOT, HOT .... it does not mean we will have hurricanes in March or April. There's Saharan Dust there currently, a really early burst of SAL as we call it and while that does provide beautiful sunsets in Florida and the Caribbean it does not make early hurricanes in March and April. Add in the flow of the air across the planet in that area is mostly West to East meaning we are not there yet.


As you can see above.


Out in the East Atlantic.
West to East the storms be flowing.

So everyone breathe a bit.
Inhale, exhale!

Get a plan.
While you can.... 
...do it calmly!


2023 "busy" hurricane season
compared with 2017 BUSY hurricane season


Of course, with El Nino leaving and La Nina expected to come on fast....it should be a very busy hurricane season. As we learned from last year, a busy El Nino hurricane season with the sheer number of named systems .... remember most stayed far out in the Atlantic as if NHC built a Wall! That's a joke, too much politics going on and it's a long time til the Presidential Election that will coincide with the end of the Hurricane Season and there are many factors that can mitigate signals for a busy season. One random factor could be a large volcano, another large volcano, blowing it's top in 2024 but in the Caribbean. Storms can form early, fast and furious near the African Coast and then just turn a hard right up into the shipping lanes threatening England or even Portugal if they form early and boomerang back. 

Looking at the map of 2017 up above, note named MAJOR HURRICANES moved all the way into the Caribbean and Florida hosted the mermorable Irma. The Islands were raked with Maria and Irma. 

Where hurricanes will travel to is more important than the sheer number of named storms that include many tropical storms that never make it to hurricane let alone Major Hurricane.  Where do they intensify, before landfall or out in the open North Atlantic? Will the Caribbean Basin be busy and if it is (with the lack of sheer from El Nino) often but not always what makes it into the Caribbean makes to somewhere between Texas and Florida! No two hurricane seasons are exactly alike, no two La Ninas are exactly alike!


Lastly, take a look at 1969 up above.
Whoah a busy hurricane season.
And yet only one Cane comes to mind.


Camille
It's not always about how hot the water is ...
...in the Eastern Atlantic.

Wild card:
Early Sahran Dust....
Does that mean it hangs around forever or leaves early? 
Just wondering......

Stay tuned. Colorado State University doesn't put out it's EARLY 2024 Hurricane Season report until April 4th, so............  so...........let's all breathe.

Make a list.
Prioritize the list.
Look for sales if you have the extra cash and buy early.
If not, slowly one package of crackers at a time hide away in a closet somewhere... in a locked chest.
Think if you have to board up ...what your options are and if you leave to evacuate where do you go?

Never too early to start thinking on vs worrying on ....what you will do down the tropical road.



Think on this list and these links.
Less on the temperature of the water today.
What will you need in a few months.
Use your time wisely.


Sweet Tropical Dreams....
...dreams are good, actions better!

More to come on this topic.......

BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter