Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Monday, August 03, 2015

Invest 95L Out Over Water... What Will Be? Atlantic Wave Rolling, BOC Moisture




ft-animated.gif (1120×480)

Sort of fast roundup regarding the yellow X that is now near the Ocean.
Around the Florida Georgia Line 



Been an interesting year with Invests over land.
Then again this is the type of year...
....that any Invest will do!!

I'm wondering if this INVEST doesn't get a name...
Can it still be retired for drowning parts of Tampa and West Florida?
Has an Invest number ever been retired??
Okay, being silly but Tampa was swamped.
Convection stimulated from Invest 95L


Also note the wave in the Atlantic is not dead yet.
It most likely will die out ... but...wouldn't bet the farm on that.
Pulses up regularly as if to say "I'm HERE!!!!!"

But, for now all eyes are on the clean up in Tampa.



And, as Mike says the FL GA Line Track


Stay tuned...

Sweet Tropical Dreams,

Bobbi Storm



Ps...There's some moisture lingering in the BOC...


Will Invest 95L Become Danny After It Hits Water? Keep Watching and Rock Steady

ft_lalo-animated.gif (720×480)


Know that song Stars Fell Over Alabama? This morning's post should be called "Invest Fell Over Florida" if you ask me..


Invest 95L is currently over Florida.
Just a bit East of one of my family homes..Quincy, FL
Headed towards water.... 
Ever been to St. Marys, Georgia?
I have, it's beautiful


Anyway, back to the tropics.......

Note the slot of dry air over South Florida this morning.

sat_wv_east_loop-12.gif (640×512)

I woke up to watch the sunrise and there wasn't one :(
Barely any color, the clear sky just got lighter.

Why?

All the weather this morning is up in Northern Florida.

I want to clarify something here.
When I say this could be the D storm....
...the $alient word is "could"

When I say the always hard to find E storm might be out there Somewhere...
The $alient word is "MIGHT"

Nothing much is going on in the tropics today.
Florida is getting wet.
Florida is hot.
Seattle is even hot and it's not in the tropics...
This too will change soon.

Some models . . . 
Indicate this Invest will get the Danny name.


And, this little Danny could go all the way to see the Queen at this rate..
If you believe these models

Models up on www.spaghettimodels.com



Remember one important point here.
The rain is being shunted off towards the South.

pie_None_anim.gif (768×496)

Tampa Bay is getting slammed with rain.
Miami is not.
This too will change in real time.

The always wonderful NRL shows it like this:



Whatever spin is there is hidden over the State of Florida.

latest72hrs.gif (947×405)

Also note the ITCZ is being kept down low.
Steady but low.


So, that's my early morning discussion.

As Invest 95L makes Sea Fall... 
There will be more to tell.

Besos Bobbi

Ps. A special  note to someone I'll call Chief Loco :)
I complain often about you, yeah you know I do, but... thanks for being here!!


(sort of stalkerish video but.. works)







Sunday, August 02, 2015

Invest 95L Forms Close IN... Big Bend FL... Could be D storm, Atlantic Wave Could be E Storm when Invest 94L Remnants Get Closer to Home Grown Territory


Invest 95L formed this evening along the coast of FL.
Pretty much over the coast...
Partly over water....
NE GOM
Big Bend of Florida.

Well, you get the idea.


It is possible the D storm will form close in.
Despite previous models the easy money was on this forming here.
Moving slowly across Florida and up along the East Coast.


Early track.
Models.


Still has to come together.


Timing is everything.
It has been solid on visible all today.
Convection is blowing off to the SW. 
The big area in the GOM is NOT Invest 95L.

It's really looking good tonight.
Almost exploding.

rb-animated.gif (720×480)

Will the real Danny stand up here...

Again ... CLOSE IN

ft-animated.gif (720×480)

Last stop on that last frame.

Think we should call this BIG RED
Waiting to see if GREEN pops up there in the Red.



Note this could be the D storm forming close in.
If so... the E storm could be Erika out in the Atlantic.
The wave that refuses to die ...
...even though the NHC pulled the plug on that Invest.

Note some models show a wave trying to pull together off the SE Coast...
.... later in the forecast package.

rb-animated.gif (1120×480)

Over Florida the possible D storm.
Bottom right in the Atlantic the possible E storm.

Maybe.

Stay tuned. All is not so quiet in the Atlantic.

Besos Bobbi

Ps...Cause it's Sunday Nite...









Friday, July 31, 2015

Tropics Friday. Wave Train Leaving Africa. SAL Forecast to Weaken.. maybe..


Back to One . . .

The truth is nothing has really changed.
The models no longer favor the area off the SE Coast.
It didn't catch it's ride yet NE with a trof.
The area of disturbed weather is still there.
It's also still in the GOM.
It's one long trof.

Travel with me to this hard to find link:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATWDAT.shtml

Long discussion on lingering convection.


This discussion can be found on the NHC page.
But, unlike Playboy everyone goes to the NHC for the pictures...

Peek at the picture first and then read the discussion!!


They update this every 6 hours even when there is no named storm.
It gives you all the news around the tropical basin.
After a while it's easy to understand.

Let's put this in motion:

rb-animated.gif (1120×480)

So... the area from the broad area of convection is still there.
It's in theory leaving Monday NE bound.
In theory..
Cold fronts are unpredictable the first week in August.

The wave off of Africa is hanging in there still.
Running around with SAL...or just below it.
SAL is on top.


Our Invest has a pal and another pal.
All the wave pals are departing from Africa.
SAL is running with them ....
SAL is forecast to weaken a bit.
Each wave pal weakens SAL a bit for the next wave.

We call it a wave train.

The thing about a wave train is that eventually one of them gets through.

Hurricane History is littered with the wave that made it thru...
...in a weak season.

They don't read the weather forecast or El Nino discussion.
They are like Venus in Scorpio...
They hang on... 
They keep dreams alive.
They just keep coming, rolling West

Time will tell........
I'll update as time tells ;)

Besos Bobbi




Thursday, July 30, 2015

Invest 94L should be Dusty for All the Dust It's Running Around with ... Coastal Yellow X Compelling in a Home Grown Year


sat_wv_east_loop-12.gif (640×512)

Not much more to add to the last few posts other than for now the area off the SE coast looks worthy of an Invest. So far, no Invest but that could change fast. I'll put my thoughts out there this morning in that it has a small window of opportunity to develop. It looks more "rooted" than yesterday and yes the "rooted" is my non meteorological term I made up after years of sitting with experts discussing the slow transformation on the Water Vapor Loop from a mess or blob to an Invest to Tropical Named Entity. My blog...my words, my grammar :)

Seriously, it's there. It's stealing the thunder from the messy area of convection on the Gulfside in the NE GOM. As temperatures climb today the convection should explode there again. Should being one of those words best not used in hard data discussion. These are merely thoughts I am sharing with you regarding the possibilities of a yellow 10% circle.



Model discussion is almost not important. 
Invest 94L is so far away it doesn't really matter right now.
The Yellow X off of Savannah is moving parrallel to the coast.


The close location to the coast of many beach cities is compelling.
Normally would warrant more attention.
It should warrant more attention as this is the year of Home Grown.
Sorry Invest 94L  . . . 
Makes you look more like a fish storm for now...

So, keep watching to see if there are changes sooner rather than later.

wv-animated.gif (1120×480)

Note, neither are in the most favorable areas.
Both are dealing with their own devils.
A lot of shear, dry air and DUST.


Those clouds in the top left of the image above...
Are dust moving west bound with the Invest.

If this Invest gets a name they should drop the Danny 
And, name this storm Dusty.

Because it is for sure...riding with Dusty.

Besos Bobbi

Ps Thanks for reading and enjoy the music 


More if you are a Dusty fan...




Wednesday, July 29, 2015

2nd Yellow Invest Off the SE Coast. Close IN Area Could be Home Grown Danny... or Invest 94L Could Be Danny

avn_lalo-animated.gif (720×480)

And then there were 2 yellow boxes . . .


Remember the persistent area of convection over Florida?
The one that persisted for days and looked like a yellow bandaid?

It's back.

The track for both of these is below:

'
Let's look at the newest yellow circle on the block...

rb-animated.gif (720×480)

Not sure it's behaving the way they planned.
For now it's just a yellow box without an Invest #
That could change obviously.

Going to leave this for now and start over in the morning.
But, for those of you on the West Coast just reading about this...

We are now watching two systems.

Getting to be that time of year again ...


Models on the main page. 
Spaghetti Models or otherwise.

Latest data this evening showed some models 
getting Invest 94L up near Cat 1 status.
Note I said "SOME" 

IF it were to develop faster it would hook north as some models show.
IF NOT... it travels West as you know with the upper level flow.

Invest 94L currently has a 30% chance of getting a name.
The new yellow circle has a probable chance of getting an Invest.

Will see how they both look in the morning.
After good morning visible.
After the NHC has weighed in on the possibilities.

For now...we are in subtle ways...heating up in the tropics.

Besos Bobbi

Ps... Read the thoughts from earlier as they are still valid.
I'll update in the morning, obviously.

http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/2015/07/invest-94l-yellow-20-circle-cape-verde.html





INVEST 94L. Yellow 20% Circle. Cape Verde Wave. Here We Go Again...




It's far, far away... Cape Verde Wave


Discussion:


INVEST 94L


Up close and personal:


In motion:

rbtop_lalo-animated.gif (720×480)


Okay, sort of like the last one.
Westbound, marginally conducive.

Translation:
 "models like it enough for a yellow circle"

Should be a little red heart.
For trying so hard to impress.
Gonna be breaking my heart...
It's south of the dust zone.
Nice long arms and a sense of organization.




Sort of sad when you get this excited over a 20% yellow circle :(
Well, to be honest the INVEST was really exciting :(

Doesn't even show up yet on the loop below. 
Keep watching, it will.

sat_wv_east_loop-12.gif (640×512)

Watch the bottom right of the screen near the word UNISYS ;)

Let's put this into proper perspective....


Where will it go.... Oh I can't even go there yet...

(shh quick peek at the track)


Sigh....
Just reminds me of those sad long songs.
Here we go again...


Over and over we fall for these beautiful waves :(
There should definitely be a 
Hurricane Trackers Anonymous Group to go to... 

Cause they always go poof
(trying reverse psychology here...how am I doing?)

Stay tuned... we're on it.
Besos Bobbi


Tuesday, July 28, 2015

Illusions of Hurricanes in the Atlantic ... Upper Level Lows & Florida Blobs

sat_wv_east_loop-12.gif (640×512)

Short post here in the "you can't make this up" category. Last frame as of 7 PM.

Seems like Mother Nature decided to be funny and put a Hurricane Symbol as a gentle reminder?


Weird.

Note the wave coming off of Africa.
Note EPAC will most likely spin something up soon with a name.

The NHC is playing hard ball with the GOM BLOB.
Now part of a trough over Florida.
Could something develop?
Can't rule it out.
But doubtful.
Keep watching cause it's that time of year....


Upper Level Lows imitate Tropical Storms

Atlantic isn't advertising any Going Out of Business Sales just yet..


But for now

As always, time will tell

Besos Bobbi

Ps...It's really hot and humid but there's a nice breeze down here








Monday, July 27, 2015

Tampa Bay Mid Level Convective Blob ... E GOM Swirl. All About the Mid Level



Put the above picture in motion 
and
Black and White

sat_wv_east_loop-12.gif (640×512)

You will see the convection converge just off of Tampa

Whether this can work it's way down to the surface....
....remains to be seen.

Woke up early this morning and looked at the radar.
Smiled. Figured it would be ignored.
The Sunrise could not be ignored.
The canal was calling.


Quiet sunrise.
Knew I'd need the coffee to read the DISCUSSION . . . 



Basically they are saying:

"We see it but not blinking right now!"

"Work yourself down to the surface and then we'll talk!!"



NHC Says NADA !!!

Read between the lines tho... 

Miami Forecast Discussion.
Note the word "significant" there... 
means "some" but not the ones we like...


Tampa Bay says more...


Tampa Bay says "weak surface low"

The truth is somewhere in the satellite imagery...
Read the discussion...
Rain, flooding, weather... Summer in Tampa

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&product=AFD&issuedby=TBW

Keep watching that swirl off Tampa.
As waves keep shooting off Africa ...
...like pinballs hoping one will get lucky...

Besos Bobbi

Ps.... With the NHC it's all about the European Models...
They obviously don't listen to Meghan Trainor
"Every inch of you is perfect from the bottom to the top"
Boys like a little more booty to hold at night.... 

;)