Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Friday, March 24, 2017

Arlene First Name of the 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season. When Will It Form? Could a Rare March Storm Form? Has Happened but... time will tell......


Can Hurricanes happen in March?
It's rare but they can happen.
But hurricanes rarely happen in March.
So why are we talking about it?
Because models are showing possibilities.
So we are dancing here with possibilities ...

Current satellite images from that area today are below:


Just a long, old frontal boundary draped across the area.
Hmnnn...

A quick update going into the weekend concerning possible development of some kind... in the Atlantic. I'd give it a 45/55 chance of forming right now and when I say forming I mean "some sort of low pressure system" with tropical like weather. The first name of the season is Arlene and often early subtropical storms develop just East of the Bahamas at the end of old frontal boundaries. And often they come close, models are run and sometimes an Invest gets named and nothing happens. It's worth noting the water to the North of there is not tropical and cold air is still in charge of the party this weekend. Next week should be warmer and more tropical friendly...

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A strong NE flow out of the Caribbean.

You can compare and contrast in a few days.


Is Arlene in the wings?
Yes, 100% for sure.
But will Arlene form in the Atlantic soon?
Possibly maybe.
To quote the old Magic 8 Ball..
Ask Again Later.

latest_wv_loop.gif (535×440)

For now nothing is happening.
Down the road... it's a definite possibility.
Something to watch...


The official start of the 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season is June 1st!

Have a great weekend.
Check back later in the weekend.
To see if any purple circles pop up.
Read the previous post to read more model discussion.

Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter

Ps Rob from www.crownweather.com...
pointed out the last March system was in 1908


1908 Atlantic Hurricane Season.
One did form near there but it went into the Carib.
Not out of the Carib...

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/1908/1/track.gif




Thursday, March 23, 2017

Rumors Tropical Development Coming Early? What's Up in the Atlantic? Busy Tornado Season Soon & Dr. Rick Knabb Leaving NHC




So there's a lot of whispering online about possible formation of something quasi tropical in the Atlantic in the not so distant future. I don't like to fire the flames of innuendo however it obviously needs to be addressed. Yes, and no is the answer. The models show something coming together briefly and then shuffling off out to sea just as rapidly. These subtropical like features often appear this time of year or perhaps later in April but this year's March is the new April.

GFS:



Euro:



Anything that forms will shoot off to the NE.
Similar to the flow below...

latest72hrs.gif (947×405)

A floater goes up and gets everyone's panties in a bunch..


Let me remind people the water is not that hot...


Never the less we are discussing it..
it being an anomaly and modeling.


http://dabuh.com/

What I'll say is ... 
...it's fun to have a reason to loop!

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Rumors for now....
..but models show something.
Is that like where there's smoke there's fire?


In truth the region to worry on weather wise..
...is in the Tornado Zone.
You know that area that often gets blown away..
Okay for now Thunderstorms and Supercells.
But Tornado season should be nasty soon...



As for Hurricane Season the big news is BIG.
We are losing our director to TWC it seems.
Dr. Rick Knabb is leaving.
A new director has not been named.
Til then Ed Rappaport is in charge


Big news.... 
Keep watching.

Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter







Monday, March 20, 2017

Spring Equinox - 73 Days til Hurricane Season



Starbucks broke out the bright yellow cups for the start of Spring.
Rush right over if you need to feel the love...


Spring is officially here but the fly in the ointment is that we will continue having cold spells for the next few weeks at least. Winter took a vacation this year and reappeared in the beginning of March. Yes, we have some warm days to look forward to ... however, its not over until it's over. And everyone wants it over it seems. Remember that come August when everyone is complaining it's too darn hot!


The recent spate of wintry weather and freezing temperatures has taken a bite out of the early Spring harvest and only time will tell how the strawberries and peaches really do. And with every night that the temperature threatens to dip down below freezing the concerns continue. But in truth that's part of the way the process works. You don't really believe in true love and happy endings do you? Weather is never exactly the same and it all gets evened out when you study the climate. Climate alert: It's Spring! And it's forecast to be a wet Spring in some parts of the country. And, a little birdie told me that Severe Weather will be on the come on like cray this Spring as Mother Nature takes a walk on the wild side. Stay tuned.


As for the tropics the cold intrusions continue.

latest72hrs.gif (947×405)

We aren't there yet...


At some point we can watch those fronts dangling in Carib.
But not until there aren't anymore behind them.
And the water needs to warm up... 
We aren't there yet.



So stay tuned and do something to celebrate Spring.
Personally I'm dreaming on the beach.
A Carolina Beach

I kind of have a thing for the low country...


and dolphins...


Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter

Ps If you listened to that Pawleys Island video...
...you'd hear the part about hurricanes.


What does Spring mean to you?









Monday, March 13, 2017

Snow Storm Stella Slides Towards the East Coast... Winter Blizzard Warnings for March Madness (love that name)


If you live in or near a shaded area ....
...this post is for you!!

The forecast for the snow line is shown below:


The problem with Mid March Snow Storms AKA Blizzards is they are very hard to predict in perfect detail. They are in general an odd bird and models often over amplify and meteorologists try to stay conservative and look to history for analog storms to make or explain a forecast. Add to that models can flip flop fast and vacillate between 12 inches one run and 6 inches another run while meteorologists wait for the next run to see if the favored models come together in a way that seems consistent with history and current synoptics. It's not easy to have a Monster Storm show up on models in Mid March and try to convince a large population area they might really, really, really get a huge snow storm.

2017 has been on the mild side and many are skeptical that March will usher in winter on the edge of the Spring Equinox a mere week away. Again it's a week away for a reason and often latent energy unloads in Mother Nature's attempt to realign and center herself while taking back control of Planet Earth. An example would be Hurricane Joaquin or Hurricane Matthew that were both late season hurricanes that seemed to come out of nowhere.

And remember without the energy coming up from the GOM
We wouldn't have this whole Blizzard Mess...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/rb-animated.gif

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The energy wrapped up in one low...
Merges with the other low...

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Incredible meterological ballet.
And as always hard to predict where the snow line sets up.

Larry Cosgrove is one of my favorite mets and he takes a wide, historic, geographic view of weather often rather than just telling you what this model said vs that model. If you live in the area under the gun please check him out on Facebook and sign up for his newsletters. There are few like him; he's a treasure.

https://www.facebook.com/larry.cosgrove/posts/10158481544290235


On a personal level let me explain it this way.
They are hard to predict and many variables.
So, shop for trouble in case you are snowed in...
And stuck unable to leave the house easily.
Better to stay safe than be sorry always.

I'm just pointing out:
if I lived in NJ, PA, DC, NY..
The mountains of WV and VA...
That general area I'd blink and prepare.
New England... you know the drill.

I don't need to hype this as it's hyped already.
www.weather.com is doing a great job of that...


Mike from www.spaghettimodels.com has an APP
You might want to check it out and download it.
Loads easy and may make your life easier ...
...especially if you are in the danger zone.

Stay warm, safe and enjoy the late achiever winter of 2017!

Besos BobbiStorm
Follow me on Twitter @bobbistorm

Ps... In Raleigh we would have a huge snow storm on Sunday.
Then they back tracked to maybe snow on Sunday.
Then they took it out and penciled it in for Tuesday.
Then we had sunrise snow on Sunday.
Covered everything.
Snowed for 4 hours.
Beautiful.
Melted in less than an hour.
Sun came out and it looked a lot like Spring again.
My thought they took it out too fast.
Models are misleading this time of year.
Remember that ....
If on any of the last five days they said you would get snow..
..you most likely will get something.

The bushes  looked like they were covered in snow...
Then it melted because it's March.
Spring again.
Today it's nasty cold - feels like 34 degrees in Raleigh.
They said maybe a drop of changeover to sleet.
Maybe................





Thursday, March 09, 2017

The Problem With Snow




Problem with snow is that the blooms are on the trees, leaves are on the trees and some produce has begun to grow in Farmer John's garden. A heavy snow can weigh down those blooming Cherry Blossoms and damage the trees in randomly odd ways depending on the size of the tree. A lot of "it depends" sort of intangibles today and that happens in years when Mother Nature tries to wrestle back control late in the season.

So today's post is more a tease than a long read. Putting it up here to see how it compares with tomorrow's forecast.

I'm wearing thin Luluroe Spring like leggings today with a short sleeve shirt. Getting hard to decide what to wear as it's cold in the morning and 75 in the afternoon with a forecast of snow for Sunday.


And want to add in one more thing.
Has Tecumseh come back to life?
I guess if he was a character on GH he could.

Second big storm threat in the same region.


Again August Total Eclipse tracks over the same area.


Are these things connected?
Who knows.
Just seems kind of curious....

Stay tuned to see who gets snow this weekend.
As the storm moves a bit to the East...
...we will have a better idea.
Models will improve.


Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm

Ps.... you thought I was going to play Jimmy Buffett?
Or Total Eclipse of the Heart?







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Wednesday, March 08, 2017

Will it Snow on Purim? In NY? Winter Weather Makes a Come Back. Casual Observations on Life and Death and Dancing on Holidays. Hamentaschen Don't Just Happen You Got to Make Them (or buy them...)



Rain along the East Coast.
Severe Weather down along the GOM.
Snow Up North. 
The NW is still stormy.

Pictures don't really tell the story sometimes. Satellite loops only say so much to the casual observer. Even loops only show so much before it all blurs together into a progression of fronts and dry zones moving in tandem across the face of the nation from a satellite up in space.

latest_wv_loop.gif (535×440)

A crazy quilt of weather warnings across the USA.



http://www.weather.gov/

Put in your Zip code.
See if the NWS is concerned about your welfare today.

A casual perusal of weather news is below.
I know you really aren't here for casual news.
But, often, much of our life is filled with the casual.
It's not always intense or wild.
Tornadoes confirmed in the KC area.
(We knew that but now it's official)
Winter Weather is flirting with the Mason Dixie Line.

See?


Mason Dixie Line


Long Range Snow Winter Weather predictions.

Note yesterday this line was a bit further South.
It's a predictions and predictions change in real time.

And a flush of early Spring messes up the commodity markets.
They are prone to any fluctuations in the weather.
Your cousin Peggy may be thrilled she can plant her petunias.
However, too early a bloom on trees may mess up the crop.
Weather... it's all related.

So... should you want to find random weather news.
Go to Google on any random day - type "weather" 
Then hit the NEWS tab.

No you don't have to rely on Drudge or CNN.
Or what your stupid smart phone decides you want to read.

And voila... weather news!




http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/nation-now/2017/03/07/
warm-weathers-worrisome-michigan-maple-syrup-producers/98880318/

That maple story may hit home for some readers here.
Ouch.... Good luck on that!!

As for me, here in North Carolina, I am stuck on 73 degrees. I regularly adjust the thermostat from "cool" to "heat" so that I am living in the zone most Miamians live in and that being eternal 73 or 74 degrees. The ceiling fan whirls above me while I think on whether I should go North or South on my next trip as both places are calling me. But, for now I have the Jewish Holiday of Purim which is kind of like a Halloween as we dress up and party in costume, yet we give presents that look much like Easter Baskets. Theme parties or destination dinners. You can choose from a diverse array if you are Jewish and interested in a holiday where people drink, eat sweets and dance to the music and then take Uber home unless you have a friend who does AA and is your designated driver ;) http://www.chabad.org/holidays/purim/article_cdo/aid/645309/jewish/What-Is-Purim.htm


Last year we did an African theme in Raleigh and this year we are doing Purim in France but I'll be escaping to a nearby Brewery that a nearby Chabad rented out for a party.....sooooo North Carolina. For kids it's a dress up party and a family dinner at the Temple or local Chabad House. Then for the adults it can become an all night dance party with good friends and millions of calories (most of them not Paleo..) 


If you watch the end part from above...
...you'll see the party part.

I'm trying to stick to Paleo but that's going down on Purim.
One day ... 
I made 4 dozen Pina Colada cupcakes on Tuesday.
Didn't eat one!
They smell good.
Spent a small fortune sending our packages yesterday.
I have a lot of friends and FAMILY across the nation.
I will be giving out some here in person.
I may try and bake chocolate hamentaschen today...
Gotta Love the Internet.



There was discussion it would snow in NYC on Sunday but the NWS has pulled back on that today and hopefully the Purim Parades will go on. They will go on without me as I'm down here in NC far from Crown Heights (where a part of me wants to be) and not in Miami (where the other part of me wants to be) and I'll enjoy Purim here. I'll just have to flower where I'm planted. We will most likely do talk on FaceTime or do Facebook Live this year to be in touch even though we are far apart.

It's been a crazy week as I know three amazing women who lost a grandparent this week, they are all friends and life happens for a reason in random ways sometimes. One of those grandparents was the father of my best friend. You can read his inspirational obituary below. 

http://www.collive.com/show_news.rtx?id=44644 Buddy Subin, Teaneck NJ.


A family picture from her wedding below.


Yes, the girl in the  middle is the Mother of the Bride..
That's her grandson below with her grandfather.

So yes, one of my two best friends lost her father two days ago. Malka is a real upbeat cheerleader sort of person filled with faith and fun to be with and on the way to the airport to go to his funeral she went to the Post Office to mail me out my Purim package. Who does that? She does... Yeah, I sent her a present yesterday she can use with her costume on Sunday. No mourning on Purim... well, not real mourning. And, he was very old and led a very good life and lost his awesome wife a few years back and was blessed to dance with his Great Granddaughter at her wedding two years ago. How incredible a life is that? Actually, he got to hold his Great, Great Grandson last year after dancing with his Great Granddaughter at her wedding. That's my best friend Malka on the right with her daughter and granddaughter and great granddaughter. Malka is beautiful inside and out, few people like that and she's raise an awesome group of kids who in turn have raised awesome children themselves. Her daughter, the Grandmother, jumped out of a plane (with a parachute) for her 40th birthday to raise money for their Chabad House. Who does that? The daughter of a woman who stops on the way to the airport for her father's funeral to mail her best friend a Purim Package. 

Yes, much of life is casual. You make lunches for the kids, you wash your hair, you put on your make up, pick out your clothes and mark off your to do list in your Bullet Journal because it turns out pen and paper are never going out of style. You get stuck at a red light or a traffic jam and you check your Facebook or do Snapchat while waiting for the light to turn and the person behind you to beep because they are old and aren't aware they can do Snapchat at a red light fast. People who are in a rush always get where they are going but they often miss the casual subtleties of life that make life enriched in numerous ways. They miss the clouds up above and the flowers below, they miss the ebb and flow of life when you are living fast but not in the fast lane.

The Hurricane Season is less than 90 days away. Between here and there I have Purim and Passover and a few trips to see a few kids in between. Lag B'omer in Miami ;)

So............check often with the NWS to see what may happen in your area before smart phone sends you a weather warning and you are already out and about. And if you see snow falling make sure to Snapchat it with a Geotag or send a Tweet and share it with a friend. Life is about sharing.

Besos BobbiStorm 
@bobbistorm on Twitter

Ps Me and Malka a few years ago when the camera caught me smiling at Malka in admiration. Sorry for any typos... I am still getting past a badly sprained wrist but I am healing and yes I can dance again. One of the things we do on Purim is give charity (while eating and dancing and reading about Queen Esther) so if you would like to give charity here is a link to Buddy's granddaughter's Chabad House if you would like to make a donation in his memory or the memory of a loved one.


http://www.chabad.org/holidays/purim/article_cdo/aid/645309/jewish/What-Is-Purim.htm









Wednesday, March 01, 2017

Tornadoes, Hail, Straight Line Winds - Massive Midwest Outbreak Moving East Today. Stay Informed Check With Your Local NWS http://www.weather.gov/


March 1st. 
Severe Spring like weather outbreak.
Tornadoes, Straight Line Winds, Hail.
Even the signature above looks like a tornado...


Sadly that death toll now stands at 3 and could rise.
Last night Twitter looked like this:



According to MSNBC this morning more than 100 Million People were or are under the gun from severe weather last night and today. When you have a crazy, cell zoom by large cities in Illinois you get the media's attention. Even during the speech last night weather people broke away from complaining and cheering to cover the developing disaster. So far, and they are still searching through the rubble, 3 people are confirmed dead. Cars on freeways were tossed about and straight line winds competed with tornadic cells that popped up and moved en masse across the Midwest.


This great site below is on www.spaghettimodels.com
To the left of that "juice loop" I use so often during hurricane season.


Click on it and you can watch in real time.
Last night it was explosive.



Concerns for today as an even larger population area is again under the gun rises as do the warm temperatures pushing and blasting into the low pressure system out of the Southwest. It's a recipe for more damage and a loud, boisterous announcement that meteorological Spring is here today. Officially winter fights back a bit for a few days after the passage of the cold front. This weekend in Carolina threatens freezing temperatures and one last fling with boots and coats even though today we are in short sleeves and sandals.


Note the possible problems people will deal with today.


Let's see that;s from Boston down to Atlanta under the gun.
And all the cities along I95 along the way. I85 also...

Wow. 

In Raleigh the Bradford Pear Trees bloomed early.
If you like the white flowering trees.
Go out fast today.
The blooms will be gone with the wind this evening.
Maybe there will be a second bloom?
Who knows it's a crazy year.
My boots sit next to my sandals in the closet.

Some awesome pictures from last night below.


Great shots below.


Be aware as dangerous as a system is during the daytime...
...it's that much more dangerous cloaked in darkness.

Pay attention to weather any way you prefer.
Weather Radio. Weather App.

http://www.weather.gov/
Put in your city. Use it..
Knowledge is power.

The cars tossed about on I-55 last night were caught....
....in a fast moving line.

Be aware of your surroundings...
...especially what is going on with the weather!!

Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter


Above you have the professional view from the studio.
This was posted by chasers.
Lot's available on Youtube.
And everyone who chases is out today as well.






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