70% Bonnie For now models lock on Charleston then ...depends on Bonnie
Remember the old days when I used to write without graphics? I'm on vacation with many commitments as its a working vacation. I'm speaking in NYC and in theory the Hurricane Season doesn't begin til June 1st... Oh well on that theory. Isn't Mother Nature fun... She decides when the hurricane season begins unlike say NFL football season. No surprises there. Lots of surprises always with the Hurricane Season.
Surprisingly I woke up this morning to find out both the GFS and the EURO agree with my early all on Charleston. I have felt that was a more realistic landfall point than many I read others say. That said... Until this Low wraps, comes together (insert song cue) gels...all bets are off on the exact evolution ... Exact landfall... Exact end game.
Yes the NHC has upped the odds to 70 percent for the 5 day but beyond that much is up for grabs.
For example the models that are all over Spaghetti Models online show possibilities of Bonnie going far inland..and/or bouncing back towards the ocean staying with us for quite a while. The devil is in the details. Those are the details the NHC can't show in a red alert graphic nor can we see in our meteorological crystal balls.... Until Bonnie forms.
This morning you can see a slow coming together more like a collision of factors that will create spin and lift off.
As always timing is everything with tropical systems especially as it relates to long term track options.
Yes its Memorial Day Weekend and this may take a bite out of the holiday economics of small beach towns hoping to start $ummer off with a bang. Money flows like weather. People will go inland up to the mountains (Carolinas have so many options) or go to the movies are mall. Small great beach towns like Ocean Isles Beach may get the short end of the proverbial stick.
But some models show Bonnie going well inland towards said mountains while others show it cruising up the Interstate.
www.spaghettimodels.com has ALL the models that's where the name came from... Duh :)
Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to go in Friday.
Lastly think on this..
As this system presumably Bonnie finally gets a center and moves towards low shear and high water temperatures over the Gulfstream it will spun up FAST as these home grown coastal lows do. Sometimes they meet expectations and sometimes they exceed them.
the Wonderful Weather Wizards of Oz I mean the NHC will speak again later tho afternoon. Til then enjoy the day and the loops.
I'll update when there's are more details !!
Below is the discussion from the NHC.
@bobbistorm on Twitter
Ps again thanks for your patience with any grammatical errors..
"With the Memorial Day weekend
approaching, all interests along the southeast coast from Georgia
through North Carolina should monitor the progress of this low. An
Air Force reconnaissance plane will be scheduled to investigate
this low on Friday. The next Special Tropical Weather Outlook on
this disturbance will be issued by 3 PM EDT today. For additional
information on this system, see High Seas Forecasts issued by the
National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent"
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 815 AM EDT WED MAY 25 2016
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
1. An area of cloudiness and showers over the western Atlantic Ocean northeast of the Bahamas is associated with the interaction of an upper-level trough and a weakening front. While development is not anticipated for the next couple of days, environmental conditions are expected to become more conducive for tropical or subtropical development on Friday. This area of disturbed weather is forecast to move slowly west-northwestward or northwestward and gradually approach the southeastern United States over the weekend. The next Special Tropical Weather Outlook will be issued by 8 PM EDT tonight. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent
BobbiStorm's bottom line.
Not much has changed. Same logic.
some shear, water temperature not that warm yet..but will get warmer as it moves closer to the Gulfstream.
Say you have a lunch date. They took the ferry and are on the subway. They will get here but for now your are waiting.
Order a diet coke...they are on their way.
So is this coastal low that might be Bonnie.
apologies for any grammatical mistakes.
sitting in a deli waiting for a friend ;) and watching loops.
Ps...NY values...hmmn..they won't take my order til the rest of my party arrives. Hmm who knew? What am I chopped liver??
30% chance of Bonnie forming off SE coast as per NHC
000 ABPZ20 KNHC 241732 TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1100 AM PDT TUE MAY 24 2016
For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.
$$ Forecaster Blake
models have been extremely consistent in developing either a tropical or subtropical system. If named it would be Bonnie.
my logic from this morning is the same... North of Savannah..south of Wilmington most likely. Need a floater, an invest...next model runs important.
I'm in transit so this is a short heads up post.
please read my previous analysis for what most likely will happen.
Hurricane Betsy. Video of Before, During and After. Are you SURE you are PREPARED for a Hurricane?
Hurricane Betsy 1965
What was considered great radar images of eye and bands.
I'm lying in bed as I type this listening to the rain falling heavy late at night. It's a nice comforting sound, has a nice feel to it. It's not a hurricane. Just late night May rain... Hurricane rain is not comforting it hits the side of your house like a thousand nails slamming into the stucco and at times it comes through the walls. During the crazy Hurricane Irene that created immense flooding the water came through the walls above the terrazzo floors. Not up from the ground but through the walls, it took us a while to figure out where the water was coming from....
Hurricanes, real hurricanes, are huge weather makers with more than just hurricane force winds. Strong squalls way above hurricane force that are not long enough to be counted as "sustained winds" but does it really matter if your house is battered by 105 mph winds for 40 seconds every 2 minutes or so and then a near by micro burst, down draft or possibly a small twister in the bands of the storm rip your neighbors awning and part of their roof off? The wind howls, screams, moans, groans and it's both mesmerizing and terrifying. If you live close enough to the ocean but did not evacuate you can sometimes hear the roar of the surf occasionally through the wind. It's unrelenting.
What those hurricane preparation charts might not tell you is to find a place in advance that your children will hunker down and try and sleep through the storm. Explain to them before the storm comes it's going to sound like a scary movie but the shutters are up and we are going to be okay but it's going to be very noisy. And, pray like hell that the storm doesn't intensify and you didn't tell them a white lie... because... no one really knows for sure before the hurricane makes landfall what it will be like. You could be far from the eye but still catch part of the eye wall, or you could be not in the eye wall but some fierce squall hits your immediate neighborhood with winds much stronger than what you were expecting.
Now days we feel like we have so much advance notice. The ever changing cone of uncertainty tracks the future projected path every 6 hours and your local television station has gone on 24/7 mode telling you what to do, where to go and what to prepare for as the hurricane gets closer. You shopped, you tied down the lawn furniture or brought it in, you boarded up the windows and feel as safe as you can be while you are preparing for the worst and hoping for the best. You ever went down to the Beach and got your surfer son and daughter to come back home "NOW!" and as they slam the door to their bedrooms you smile knowing you did the same thing when you were there age.
The truth is back in 1965 Hurricane Betsy wreaked havoc on the NASA space program before it drove forecasters in Miami crazy with it's crooked, backward path. But what we don't realize is that they thought in 1965 they knew so much about hurricanes. They had satellite imagery, hurricane hunters flying through the storm and even the crew from the Gemini mission added in their own observations.
1965 was modern times, not like the old days when the 1926 Great Miami Hurricane took Miami by relative surprise and flappers and real estate salesmen who knew nothing about hurricanes suddenly were caught out on the causeway during the storm trying to find safety. This was not the Labor Day Storm of 1935 when they had no satellite imagery to see that a tropical storm was going through rapid intensification and bombing out into a Cat 5 Hurricane headed straight for the Florida Keys. There was no warning let alone any evacuations locally. The National Hurricane Center had learned much from Hurricane Donna five years before. The NHC was on top of their game doing their jobs. Televisions stations go out the word immediately. Key Biscayne and other low lying islands were warned to evacuate. Stores closed for the Labor Day Holiday were ordered to open so people could shop. Yes, stores used to close on the Labor Day Holiday but Labor Day 1965 the stores opened and people shopped.
Fast forward to 1992 and Bryan Norcross felt a sense of concern over some of the models and he had the new Aviation model that showed a different scenario evolving. He felt the model showed that Andrew would not catch the trof... Spoiler Alert: Andrew did not catch the trof... But we had satellite imagery and radar imagery (until the radar dish blew off the top of the National Hurricane Center we had radar imagery) and TWC was here chasing the storm as were all the men of all the networks covering the story. We had evacuations and people hunkered down and prayed they would be safe.
The one thing that does not change is often the sense of appreciation we have for the modern times we live in with all the scientific data we have to help us prepare for what will be down the tropical road. And no one today would say with a straight face "well the Aviation model shows..."
2016... the current present year with El Nino leaving and La Nina forming indicating a stronger hurricane season the further into La Nina we get and yet are we really prepared? Been over 10 years since Florida really had a hurricane. Katrina is a name from the past and Andrew a distant memory that mostly lives in the memories of the Miamians that stayed in South Florida and did not run away.
Miami as always glitters in the sunshine sitting at the edge of the beautiful, blue Biscayne Bay. Tall buildings line the water's edge and more buildings are under construction. Tropical waves will form and intensify and possibly develop into a strong hurricane. The Euro will disagree with the GFS and meteorologists on air will try and explain the options the different models are showing as possibilities. The NHC will make a cone and move it about slowly in real time.
Some people will refuse to shop til the last moment insisting it will turn away or fall apart. Others will act as if Earth was under attack from Martians and buy every thing left on the shelf they can find.
Are you really prepared? Really? I'm writing long here because I'm in the mood and it's my blog so I can...
Watch the video again and tell me if you are really sure you are prepared? The one thing that never changes is we always feel we know so much more than they knew back when. And years from now they will laugh at the way our models and old fashioned computer graphics tried to predict and show people in 2016 what a hurricane would do...
We are always learning. Always improving. Always trying to get it right.
Some things never change.
Hurricane Hunters still fly into hurricanes.
Yes that's a plane not a UFO..
People prepare but some get their first.
People go to the beach to see the waves.
Now we post them on Facebook, Snapchat and Instagram.
We tweet live shots of the beach..the waves..
I really wonder if they had models in 1965 ...
Would the Euro have been right or the GFS?
Maybe the Aviation model would have seen the SW turn.
Location: Miami, Raleigh, Crown Heights, Florida, United States
Weather Historian. Studied meteorology and geography at FIU. Been quoted in Wall Street Journal, Washington Post & everywhere else... Lecturer, stormchaser, writer, dancer. If it's tropical it's topical ... covering the weather & musing on life. Follow me on Twitter @ https://twitter.com/#!/BobbiStorm