Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Friday, September 30, 2016

UPDATED!! 120 MPH STRONGER..Will It Be 125 MPH at 5? Major Hurricane Matthew .. Where Will He Go After Carib? Intensifying .. Eye Popping Out. NHC CANNOT RULE OUT S FL IMPACTS. Cuba Major Cane. Jamaica Prepare

2 PM STRONGER
120 MPH
Intensifying.
Despite land near by and moderate shear.

WSW 12 MPH (slow helps intensification)
960 MB (recon reports deepening)
Sustained 120 MPH

As I said earlier I felt the intensity forecast was too conservative.
There was discussion it could be brief short term..
.. maybe eye was clouding over.
They like their forecasts to verify.
Usually they do but when you have a storm that breaks the rules.
They break the rules big time.

From my knowledge of tropical meteorology.
And I have a lot of knowledge and experience.
That's more like 125 MPH...

jsl_lalo-animated.gif (720×480)

See the purples in the red.
Happens rarely.

Perfect evacuation of energy with this storm.
Despite the odd caboose it's carrying with it.
Another storm did this can't remember which now.
Will find it later.


With a dangerous system like this...
A dangerous Major Hurricane.
Many things can happen.
They have a tendency to break the rules.
To make their own rules...within the realm of science.
Later we re-evaluate it and understand what happened better.
The NHC does a great job at the end of the season doing that.
Then it is studied and knowledge learned for the future.


Keep reading. 
New package out at 5 PM.
Cone should stay the same give or take.
The big question is if this stalls or slows down.
If so could intensify fast, then have upwelling.
But that is just one possibility. 

Jamaica could have a big problem.
Again Haiti even far away will get intense rainfall in squalls.


Keep watching... keep reading.


ft-animated.gif (720×480)

Eye popping out.
Doing that two partner tango dance again.
Last time it did that it strengthened go figure.

16 nautical mile wide eye observed by Recon
Outflow bands.
Good symmetry in all directions.
Major Cane


Look at that picture.
Note how precisely rounded off it is on SW side.
South side... outflow channel NE
Beginning to form more than 1 outflow channel.
That's how major hurricanes work.
They pump, in, out and breathe like a heavyweight fighter
This occurred CLOSE IN to the South American coast.
This rapid intensification occurred despite some shear.
Over very warm hot water.
And the water gets HOTTER when it pulls North into Carib.
HWRF model I posted the other day has been on target.
All the talk on EURO vs GFS and HWRF scores high!
Remember the discussion of possible Cat 4 in Carib?
The dip to the SW followed by ballistic path to the N?
Problem is models that do the track well miss intensity.
And the NHC has to average them all out carefully.
Too often NHC plays it conservative.
Often that works well.
When you get a Mitch like Matthew you got to be careful.

EURO shows a very strong hurricane.
A sharper turn out to sea.
Cuba and then misses FL easily.
Sorry Bahamas...
Busts thru Turks and Caicos ..
924 MB
Follows a small low out to sea.
As if it's directing it away


http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.cgi?time=2016093006&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

If you run this loop you will see.
It cross Cuba as a very strong Hurricane.
It's one sort of run...


Moves slower than the EURO
And parks off the coast of NC has a monster.


GFS keeps it closer to the coast.
There are MANY models.
www.hurricanecity.com is a good source for models.
Jim Williams is good at pointing out which models are best.
Often models you have never heard of so check it out

You can't really rule them all out.
And some do break West and come dangerously close to
Florida

Let's take the GFDL


126 Hours out...

Crosses Jamaica with a landfall



Then slides up JULIA style near the Cape..
Cape Kennedy not OBX


Based on the patterns THIS year that cannot be ruled out.
It's easy to say it most likely will go out to sea and miss FL.
But it can't be ruled out that it doesn't or affects it in some way.

So we have different scenarios.

1. Cat 2 would feel the pull and pull North.
Strong dip in the atmosphere present
Picks it up and hurls it out to sea..



2. Cat 3 intensifying into a Cat 4 ignores it for now.
Cat 3 slows at edge of High and becomes Cat 4

latest_wv_loop.gif (535×440)

Watch the blue High... see where it stops pushing West.
That's where Matthew should* slow down.
When a Cat 3 slows down over hot water.
It intensifies.. maybe a Cat 4 even.

3. Cat 3 or 4 makes it's own weather.
How? The outflow builds a high aloft.
Happens rarely but does happen.
Sometimes they continue forward motion longer ..West.
They feel the pull eventually and turn slower than a strong Cat 2.
Timing is very important here.
Intensity forecasting is very important here.
NHC at 11 AM says this about that.


a) Can't rule out impacts to South Florida
b) They keep it at 115 MPH.

Bobbistorm's Bottom Line on that..
I think they are erring on the side of too conservative.

I think this will intensify.
As it pulls more to the N of WSW at 12 MPH..
..and the eye opening up.
It will intensify some.
It's simple Tropical Meteorology 101.

Until South Florida is off this grid .. I'd be careful.



Yes close to South America but so far hasn't hurt it.
Or perhaps it has kept it from being stronger.

I'll talk on Jamaica later today.
Cuba later today.
Saturday Night is the big time to think on Florida.

Matthew below looking as good as it gets.



This part of the world in October is bad for Jamaica.



That's Mitch a late October storm.
No big dip to grab it and then and it did dip to SW WSW
But we do have what to pull Matthew North .. in theory

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIAPWSAT4+shtml/301447.shtml?

Wind probabilities for Matthew up to Elizabeth City, NC
Some more to the West. Check them out.

I'll update in real time later this afternoon.


Mike says it well.
So does my friend Alfred Spellman.


Yes Alfred all of South Florida should watch this storm carefully.

Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter























I like loops that show you the process

sat_ir_enh_east_loop-12.gif (640×512)







Major Hurricane Matthew .. Where Will He Go After Carib? Intensifying .. Eye Popping Out. NHC CANNOT RULE OUT S FL IMPACTS. Cuba Major Cane. Jamaica Prepare

2 PM STRONGER
120 MPH
Intensifying.
Despite land near by and moderate shear.

WSW 12 MPH (slow helps intensification)
960 MB (recon reports deepening)
Sustained 120 MPH

As I said earlier I felt the intensity forecast was too conservative.
There was discussion it could be brief short term..
.. maybe eye was clouding over.
They like their forecasts to verify.
Usually they do but when you have a storm that breaks the rules.
They break the rules big time.





ft-animated.gif (720×480)

Eye popping out.
Doing that two partner tango dance again.
Last time it did that it strengthened go figure.

16 nautical mile wide eye observed by Recon
Outflow bands.
Good symmetry in all directions.
Major Cane


Look at that picture.
Note how precisely rounded off it is on SW side.
South side... outflow channel NE
Beginning to form more than 1 outflow channel.
That's how major hurricanes work.
They pump, in, out and breathe like a heavyweight fighter
This occurred CLOSE IN to the South American coast.
This rapid intensification occurred despite some shear.
Over very warm hot water.
And the water gets HOTTER when it pulls North into Carib.
HWRF model I posted the other day has been on target.
All the talk on EURO vs GFS and HWRF scores high!
Remember the discussion of possible Cat 4 in Carib?
The dip to the SW followed by ballistic path to the N?
Problem is models that do the track well miss intensity.
And the NHC has to average them all out carefully.
Too often NHC plays it conservative.
Often that works well.
When you get a Mitch like Matthew you got to be careful.

EURO shows a very strong hurricane.
A sharper turn out to sea.
Cuba and then misses FL easily.
Sorry Bahamas...
Busts thru Turks and Caicos ..
924 MB
Follows a small low out to sea.
As if it's directing it away


http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.cgi?time=2016093006&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

If you run this loop you will see.
It cross Cuba as a very strong Hurricane.
It's one sort of run...


Moves slower than the EURO
And parks off the coast of NC has a monster.


GFS keeps it closer to the coast.
There are MANY models.
www.hurricanecity.com is a good source for models.
Jim Williams is good at pointing out which models are best.
Often models you have never heard of so check it out

You can't really rule them all out.
And some do break West and come dangerously close to
Florida

Let's take the GFDL


126 Hours out...

Crosses Jamaica with a landfall



Then slides up JULIA style near the Cape..
Cape Kennedy not OBX


Based on the patterns THIS year that cannot be ruled out.
It's easy to say it most likely will go out to sea and miss FL.
But it can't be ruled out that it doesn't or affects it in some way.

So we have different scenarios.

1. Cat 2 would feel the pull and pull North.
Strong dip in the atmosphere present
Picks it up and hurls it out to sea..



2. Cat 3 intensifying into a Cat 4 ignores it for now.
Cat 3 slows at edge of High and becomes Cat 4

latest_wv_loop.gif (535×440)

Watch the blue High... see where it stops pushing West.
That's where Matthew should* slow down.
When a Cat 3 slows down over hot water.
It intensifies.. maybe a Cat 4 even.

3. Cat 3 or 4 makes it's own weather.
How? The outflow builds a high aloft.
Happens rarely but does happen.
Sometimes they continue forward motion longer ..West.
They feel the pull eventually and turn slower than a strong Cat 2.
Timing is very important here.
Intensity forecasting is very important here.
NHC at 11 AM says this about that.


a) Can't rule out impacts to South Florida
b) They keep it at 115 MPH.

Bobbistorm's Bottom Line on that..
I think they are erring on the side of too conservative.

I think this will intensify.
As it pulls more to the N of WSW at 12 MPH..
..and the eye opening up.
It will intensify some.
It's simple Tropical Meteorology 101.

Until South Florida is off this grid .. I'd be careful.



Yes close to South America but so far hasn't hurt it.
Or perhaps it has kept it from being stronger.

I'll talk on Jamaica later today.
Cuba later today.
Saturday Night is the big time to think on Florida.

Matthew below looking as good as it gets.



This part of the world in October is bad for Jamaica.



That's Mitch a late October storm.
No big dip to grab it and then and it did dip to SW WSW
But we do have what to pull Matthew North .. in theory

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIAPWSAT4+shtml/301447.shtml?

Wind probabilities for Matthew up to Elizabeth City, NC
Some more to the West. Check them out.

I'll update in real time later this afternoon.


Mike says it well.
So does my friend Alfred Spellman.


Yes Alfred all of South Florida should watch this storm carefully.

Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter























I like loops that show you the process

sat_ir_enh_east_loop-12.gif (640×512)







Cat 2 Matthew Trying to Become a Major Cat 3 Hurricane. 105 MPH, WSW & Barometer Dropping.. South American Coastal Resorts ABC Islands IN It NOW but... After Cuba Where Does Matthew Go? Models Trending West . . .

8 AM
WSW at 14 MPH
13.8N  70.3W
971 MB
105 MPH


That's a close up of #Matthew Strengthening.
Look how perfect the swirls are inside the center.
Category 2 Headed Towards Major Hurricane
Close to the Coast of South America
105 MPH
WSW 

Cone


Yes the cone touches Miami Beach and WPB
Most of it is to the right.
But the trend has been towards the left .. West.
So watch carefully to see any changes in the 11 PM
At 11 PM there is a new cone.
Currently NHC forecasts a slow down in motion.
Let's see if that verifies...
I'll be back later with more model discussion.
After NHC gets more data evaluated from recon.
For example just now...
There was a 966 MB reading found after that advisory



Beauty in motion far to the South in the Caribbean.
(That was for my Florida friends... keep watching)

vis_lalo-animated.gif (720×480)

If you are didn't pay attention in Geography it's this close.


Forecast to bounce back to the North.
As Matthew did make the dip WSW
He may make the fast turn to the right.
Buy that model a prize huh?

Curacao Hurricane for Friday Night?


5 Day Cone from 5 AM

Understand Matthew came together fast.
Close in to land also in line with 2016 storms.

Earlier last night


Last night it sort of split in two.
Two big, huge purple blobs.
Then this morning it sucked in the new blob.
It is as if it fed off itself.


Amazing process.

And even if #Matthew goes over #Cuba
#Haiti is going to get flooding rains.
Remember it's got that large, classic look.
NE Quadrant was always full.
When it makes that turn away from South America.
It's should bounce back and create a problem for Haiti..
...even if it moves directly over Cuba near Gitmo.
And Jamaica in the cross hairs.


How Haiti doesn't have problems from this is beyond me.
Some problems, but in Haiti a small problem can bring a huge death toll.
So you can all pray that doesn't happen. 
Because Matthew may be a Mitch sort of Hurricane.
So huge and filled with tropical convection.
Latent heat in the tropics in October is never good.

Close up


See the outflow channel?
A real Caribbean Cane for now.
Much like the GOM..
..when a Cane is in the Caribbean someone gets it.

Parts of South America are getting some now.
And the confusing part is that Matthew doesn't seem to care.
Close in Matthew is intensifying and may end up Major Cane
In the Caribbean


Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter

Ps Will discuss the models later today.
I always believe the second run of models after Gulfstream Jet best.
And the trend is to the West for now.
But remember a Cat 3 can make it's own weather.
A Cat 3 is a whole different cane than a Cat 1 or 2
It can make it's own steering currents so stay tuned.


Yesterday I wrote about the models.
We will revisit them later this afternoon.


Yes it did make that dip so that part verified.
Will it pull North suddenly?

A piece of South America .. Venezuela actually juts out.
It's sort of a vacation resort down there.
Hope they are hunkered down.
Like their own Florida Keys in a weird way.


That's where Matthew is taking a Caribbean Vacation

ft_lalo-animated.gif (720×480)

How much interaction with land will affect Matthew?
If it doesn't and bounces back up into the warmest water of the Caribbean?

Check out www.spaghettimodels.com while I take a long shower.
Note those ocean water temperatures where Matthew is heading




`