Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Friday, October 19, 2018

Weekend Weather. Tropics? Taking a Break of Finished? Coastal Storm... GOM. Questions Abound.



Convection in the Caribbean.
Rain lingering along the Texas coast...
... continuing to flow in with a flood alert.
Cold weather clouds off the East coast.

Everyone wants to know what's happening with the weather this weekend and next week but some are wondering on the tropics and others are wishing for a snow storm. It's that time of year we start watching the Troposphere to see what may be coming down our way.


Cranky watches up above.
He lives up north.
DaBuh watches down below.
He lives Down South.


In reality we watch the troposphere...
...because what develops there and dips down...
... becomes the steering currents in the tropics.

What goes around comes around.
DaBuh loves to say that...
...it's true.
It can lift a hurricane up towards landfall...
...or it can sweep one away from landfall.

Currently there are no hurricanes forecast to form.
This time of year things can pop up fast so we watch.
But rain is forecast to fall and fall and fall.
This Fall of 2018 


With or without a name Texas gets rain.


The image above is from www.windy.com
They are awesome and they get better and better.
You can switch from wind to rain.
Windwise nothing really develops.

An area tries to close off..


But doesn't really...


Epac is active.


And a storm could form off the Carolinas.


But the easy money is on off the tip of Long Island
South New England.


Old school model view.


That's for NEXT weekend.
If that plays out.
I predict people will start using fireplaces soon.
Carolinas and Virginia in for cold weather.
Front would reach down into Florida.



One thing that is certain is cool air is moving down.
The AC in my house is obviously set perfect.
But the AC is not on... 
Mother Nature is providing the cool air.
Love it.
I really love it.

And a short plug for the NC State Fair.
If you live round here...
Go.. enjoy it. 
Saturday may be a wash out.
Sunday the last day will be beautiful.
It's just fun to walk around and enjoy being outside.
What you do is not as important as that.
You can enjoy being outside again.
Eat an Ice Cream or something fried.
Fair weather is fair.
Not too hot. 
Not too cold.

As for the forecast.
Here's the 3 day.
Mike has it up on www.spaghettimodels.com
Scroll down he's got so much there.
He adds snow maps in during Winter.


allfcsts_loop_ndfd.gif (799×559)

One of the best measures of what is happening.
It changes in real time like the forecast.
Here's the link below:


It changes in real time because.......
...weather is fluid and always changing.

The above is actually reflected in this link below:


The flow goes FAST across the Caribbean....
...into the GOM.
Where it mingles with leftovers from the EPAC
And creates a rainy set up that goes on and on.

latest72hrs.gif (947×405)

A front flies off the East coast.
Watch that dry air race off the Carolinas.
Oh my goodness yes...
I'd turn the AC up cause it's cold but...
...the AC isn't on that's just cool air getting in here.
Got my velvet sweat pants from Victoria's Secrets on :)
Short sleeve top in a matching color.
We are moving bit by bit into Autumn.
Took off the hot pink nail polish...
..tried a new color Burnished Bronze.
It looked like a Fall Shade ;)
Patchy frost possible on Monday... 
Brrr for Bronze.

As for the tropics until that flow stops flowing...
We need to watch the Caribbean.
And any stalled out cold fronts that linger.
That means the GOM and off the FL coast as well.
Late October and early November can produce hurricanes.
On this day in history... Wilma did the Yucatan.
A few days later she did Florida.
She caught a cold front.


Some people stop watching the tropics after the first good cold front goes through Florida and simply say things like "it's all zonal" and what they mean is if they aren't getting any huge CV Hurricanes they don't care and aren't chasing any subtropical or hybrid storm. I'm not that person. I watch with one eye on the tropics and one eye up at the North Pole. No ... not looking for Santa though might be wondering what Superman is doing up there hiding out but he's probably just enjoying the snow. Everyone wants to know about snow or a hurricane, but the reality is that weather happens in between in places that wish they could get rid of the weather. Texas for example is so stuck in a wet pattern and that's common this time of year some years. Caribbean moisture is still moving up towards the Gulf or Mexico and there's much rain but not a lot of spinning going on. No name storms wash out bridges, destroy WHOLE small communities built in the cheaper low lands close to where people work and they get no press. But tropical destinations along the coasts that have destruction get lots of press. You could say it's not the same but it is and it's a matter of perspective. If your community was washed away by a Flash Flood that wasn't even on the radar the night before when you were decorating for Halloween and putting together a few things for Christmas presents it's the same devastating, horrific catastrophe. Oh you heard a neighborhood of trailers were destroyed so you think somehow that it's not as big as a beach front home that looks like the beach front home you always dreamed of... 

A statistic I read this morning said that 30 to 50% of the people in the path of Hurricane Michael live within the poverty range. That might be higher in the part of North Carolina flooded out by rain from Hurricane Florence. To the people who live in the trailer parks and work in the farmland in Florida, Georgia, Carolinas and Texas from the No Name storm they lost their homes and their jobs. I was told it takes a good fifteen years for a pecan orchard in Texas to really produce, that's a long term disaster for people in those parts and I can bet you money that in five years Panama City will look more beautiful than it ever was before Michael. I know because we went through it in Homestead, some of the poorer areas looked like beautiful suburbs three to five years later as money flowed into the area in the same way devastating hurricanes winds blew in with Andrew. Money flows after a hurricane into some areas and other areas money creeps in and the towns barely come back and the people who lived and worked there pick up and move away. Just inland about 30 minutes from Myrtle Beach or less there are tobacco farms, cotton farms and farms that grown winter wheat and the landscape is filled with small trailer communities on the edges of the farms and small towns that all look the same in that they have a few old beautiful buildings and some store somewhere has been changed into a Chinese Buffet. Drive the back roads someday they are beautiful and an education about what it takes to make a country like the USA. Not everyone lives in the cities and not everyone is rich and owns a beach home or a ski chalet but life is way better here than it is in most places across the world. If your home, trailer or beachfront dream house was destroyed your world was destroyed. Some have good insurance or money put away and will rebuild there or somewhere else and others will simply pick up and move on to some other town where they can make a living and send their kids to school.

Some good local news stories in this link below:


Or take a drive somewhere out in the country and look at the Fall Foliage or drive down to the coast and spread some money about encouraging life to get back to normal along the coast of North Carolina. Not sure what I am doing this weekend. Maybe staying close to home and watching football or take a long drive somewhere or maybe go to the Farmer's Market for fresh Fall produce that is bountiful this time of year round here. Time will tell. I'll update the blog should anything happen worth updating. If the models start to come on as fast as Jack Frost is nipping at our door I'll post some information on them. Have a great weekend if you are a Red Sox fan and I am .... you'll be wearing your colors and having a smile on your face. I'd play the Fenway Park video but this series shows we can win anywhere even on the road and we have done that before haven't we? I just realized I have a charm not just a bunch of tee shirts and a way too big oversized tank top I sleep in sometimes.


Besos BobbiStorm.
@bobbistorm on Twitter

If you aren't a big Red Sox fan here's another video below.

Ps. Going to put this here and let y'all think on it a bit and let it sink in that being a mother can be empowering and doesn't mean you can't "have a life" and continue doing what you love. Most 1st world and many 2nd and 3rd world countries have had women leaders and they were often at the top of their game without having to worry how to balance careers. Women in both political parties work in Washington while raising children and even being active grandmothers. I like to think God gives mothers an extra measure of strength especially in today's world where mother's work full time and have to balance being a mother and working in careers from Publix to being an Ambassador at the United Nations. Being a mother takes a lot of navigating and often but not always the father's do their share making it all work. But either way... she does a good job and makes a good point. So this is for any young girls out there... you CAN be a METEOROLOGIST and you can work on air or behind the scenes and you can be anything you want to be you just got to work at it hard as success takes hard work and sometimes a measure of luck. Good luck!


Labels: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Thursday, October 18, 2018

Jim Williams Video From Hurricane Michael. Turn the Sound Up. From Inside a Category 4 Hurricane. Thursday Morning After a Day at the NC State Fair. Andrew & Michael So Similar.


Let's start off with the official word from the NWS Key West.
One of my favorite NWS offices.
I mean that as in physically and the people there.
And the view from the balloon launch pad..
Nothing out there today.

I know you wanna know what the models say.


European shows something off E Coast.
Far off and far away.
The flow is to the East... however.
It's a watch and wait set up.
You know what the tail end of front's rule.
Also odd westbound waves...
Weather collides often.

GFS says "nothing there to see"


We'll see who is right and wrong.
Either way they will change much in the days to come.
Note GFS has that wet pattern near FL Panhandle.
Less worried on a named storm there as I am RAIN.
Rain adds pain and misery to people there.
Trust me rainy days in Homestead after Andrew were bad.


Jeff Evans posted that picture above.
It's stunning but it's typical of a Cat 4 Hurricane.
It looks like much of Homestead after Andrew.
The trees were gone...
...the street signs were gone.
Hard to find your own home to see if it was gone.
People got lost on their own streets.
Everything looks different after a Major Hurricane.


Great video from Hurricane Michael.
Jim Williams from www.hurricanecity.com
Around 5:21 into it turn the sound up.
You can really hear the sounds of the hurricane.


1st eye wall above.
Total white out...
..as it progresses everything disappears 

Then the eye comes out.
You can see bits of blue.


It was a Metro PCS store. 


Then the eye wall comes back.
It looks like sheets of rain.
Like waves of rain.
Solid white out... 
Lost in the storm.

Know that stretch of road on a nice day...
looks much like this.
It will be a long time before it looks like this again.



2 images below showing how different it is there now.
With most of the electric out.
The way it looked before from up above.
Electricity lights up the night.


After Michael look how few lights there were.
Everything is plunged into darkness.


To be honest that's got two sides to it in that I never saw stars in the sky the way I did after Wilma.  I'm pretty sure I was too in shock to actually remember the darkness after Andrew, or perhaps it's because Collins Avenue a few blocks away from my house on Miami Beach was lit as they have underground cables and the big hotels had generators. After Hurricane Wilma in North Miami Beach it was blacker than you can imagine. You couldn't see a few feet in front of you, and out of the distance you'd see people walking with a flashlight coming down the street; out to walk the door or the kids or just restless. People would stop, talk, share and then move on to talk to someone else outside staring up at the sky and the blanket of stars that lay above our head every night yet we are unaware they are there. There were no lights anywhere for days. That's the beautiful part of no electricity after a hurricane.

The bad part of no electricity after a hurricane at night is subtle and not something you hear much about. There's trash everywhere baking in the hot daytime sun and in the evening the critters come out and when I saw critters I mean rats, big rats, small rats... you can hear them, sometimes see them and sometimes they get into the house as everyone has the door open and the windows open. And that is why people light candles at night, not just to see but to keep the rats away or be able to see them if they are there. Not a pretty side to hurricanes but common days after a hurricane when debris and rotting food is piled about outside baking in the sun and yes it smells. Then it rains and the things outside get moldy, the piles grow higher with trees cut down, furniture people put out there and furniture other people throw in your pile. After Andrew we had a barricade of debris about 7 feet high on every street mostly filled with branches, cut down trees and assorted aluminum awnings or things that went flying in the crazy dark night that was Andrew. I actually watched as some people in a pick up truck driving down the street stopped on our block and heaved a huge wet, sofa onto our debris field and then got in their car and drove away. It rains and the mold gets in the air mixing along with the rotting trash from someone's fridge and the rats scurrying about looking for something to eat. It isn't pretty. It's not for the faint of heart. They say to leave not because you won't survive the storm but AFTER THE STORM it's not a very wonderful world. 


An old article above from 1992 after Andrew and understand this scene is being played out in places after Michael. I wasn't making this stuff up. 


Click on it go ahead if you dare.
Read about the trash and the rats.
And tent cities going up.
Kind of like a war zone after a storm.

I know Michael reminds me in ways of Andrew.
Different but similar.
The devastation is always the same.

The season isn't over.


The two models.

Dabuh reminding us baseball and fall go together.


The Atlantic finds an odd time to try and get busy.
I said "try" didn't I?



And fronts are moving across the country.
Moisture that starts in BOC....
....moves into the Eastern GOM.
Caught up in the flow.


The water is still warm in many places.
October going into November pattern.


This time of year in October...
The hurricane season is like it is in ...
June in ways.
Same areas of development.
But things coming out of the Caribbean...
...usually head NE not NW.
GOM action along a front.
Dead, decaying, dangling fronts off the East Coast.
The year starts with subtropicals...
...the year sometimes ends with subtropicals.
Hybrid storms form.

As for me I went to the Fair yesterday.
Everywhere at the fair were these signs.
Everywhere.
Feel free to donate using this code below.
You can text that number...



And the food ... oh my goodness.


Top right picture shown below.


And Pepsi "Born in the Carolinas"
Is the drink at the Fair.

Okay I obviously love things that spin.


When the weather turns cool up here.
And the Fair comes to town.
You just gotta go enjoy the show.

Army Band put on one awesome show.


And the fireworks.........wow what an end.


There are times you sit in the darkness staring at the stars.
And there's times you get out and enjoy the Fair.
And give thanks the weather is cooler...
...and nothing could be finer than to be in Carolina.
At the NC State Fair.




Wednesday, October 17, 2018

Tropics Wednesday Quiet. Models Suggest Possible Trouble in GOM Again BUT... Will It Get a Name? East Coast Storm But Subtropical or Hybrid or Just a Winter Storm?



A quick look at www.spaghettimodels.com shows it's quiet.
Quiet being a relative term.
Tropical wise there are no named storms.
No areas of yellow we are watching.
But we are watching long term models.
And we are watching the pattern.



Nothing there except a cold front... 
...and odd convection traveling West under it.
Below shows more of the story.


That area is lit up like a firecracker along the Western rim of GOM
EPAC action has been explosive and as it's October...
...anything that forms there is more likely to make landfall.
Unlike in July it gets caught in the flow up and across the US.
That flow is bringing endless rains to Texas.
More on that later.
Our wave entering the Caribbean..
Small remains of 94L nearing BOC.
Most of 94L went West.
A bit of the energy broke off and headed NNW




There are two things to discuss today.
Only one is truly possibly tropical.
And the other is happening to our friends in Texas.
Texas gets slammed back by hurricanes often.
But this year they have had one No Name Storm after another.
This has led to excessive flooding.
Regular flooding and Flash Flooding as we saw yesterday.
They are not a stranger to these sorts of floods.
But with a busy EPAC moisture has found it's way there often.
They probably had more damage from No Name Storms...
...then E GOM had from weak tropical storms and subtropicals.
Prior to Cat 4 Michael that's what this season produced in GOM.
This is why we watch the pattern.
Not the one that produced Michael.
The pattern that produced Alberto and Gordon.
That pattern MIGHT produce another named storm.
Or a no name storm that lingers along the N GOM.


That's the EURO above.
Note Convection Convention in the GOM.
Massive Storm of some kind off E Coast.
GFS doesn't show much tho it has in the past.
So just keep watching.
Talking a week away...


What you notice currently is this below.
Or from last night.
The GOM was lit up with lightning.
Moving North and NNW 
As long as that feed of fuel moves North.
You have to watch this region.


What concerns me here is that often a storm like this may bring much rain and some wind and IF if moves into an area like the Panhandle where what's left standing is weak and battered it can bring additional damage especially inland. Trees that looked like they were okay will come down fast and branches will go flying in the wind. After Hurricane Andrew my best friend's house seemed to have survived just fine on Miami Beach. A few weeks later.. possibly a month or so some strong "system" came in with strong winds and heavy rain and an East facing window upstairs blew out in that storm. It obviously was weakened and damaged some from Andrew in ways you couldn't see but after one strong squall line probably associated with a cold front it was gone with the wind. 

Speaking of squalls... it is worth nothing a large coastal squall for lack of a more definitive word will set up along the Eastern Seaboard down the road but this "GOM system" makes an attempt at pulling itself together vs being "just rain" along the Northern Gulf of Mexico. So stayed tuned on that one.


In Texas there was flash flooding yesterday that was so severe it took out a bridge. That's from Flash Flooding NOT a Storm Surge being clear here but it shows the power of water in a storm. Yesterday's flash flood soaked and sunk small communities under flash floods and as they were small areas out in the middle of nowhere it got very little press. TWC mentioned it a few times between long discussion on El Nino, Michael's Recovery and and some teasing discussion on what  Winter might be like this coming year. Spoiler Alert for TWC anyone watching the weather has seen the disaster scenario maps of a very cold, bitter, snowy winter shared on social media or in email updates people receive who follow the weather. Trust me if nothing was happening in Texas weather wise like a Flash Flood I love nothing more than shooting the breeze speculating on what weather may be like but when a bridge was swept away that provides a vital link for communities to get to work and where they live I wish TWC would give it the same coverage it does for a named hurricane that is long gone. They used to and it was very compelling and held you there riveted vs switching the channel to see what else is on to watch.

I figured they would send someone out there today and I was right as they have Mike Seidel out there covering the flooding now that it has moved up towards Dallas and the Fort Worth area. Austin was also in the mix last night. I guess the question as to what is in a name that William Shakespeare raised generations ago gets answered here as without a name something doesn't exist unless it's gone in hiding off the grid on in the witness protection program. Yes, names are important yet with or without one the weather is the same. This time of year there people go camping when the temperatures moderate and it's not yet too cold especially as we head into "Hunting Season" that is a thing in those parts of the country. People go off the grid into areas where cell phone service is weak camping and enjoying the beauty of nature that suddenly goes ona  wild rampage. This is an old story below, but recent and you get the idea campers were swept away and died. It goes without saying that many in that area live in trailers and even sometimes an RV and a flash flood comes in a flash so early warning is important but sometimes impossible. The pattern creates the possibility and it needs to be talked on as seriously as a Tropical Storm moving WNW into the region in June gets much hype and hoople but barely makes a splash compared to a Flash Flood. 

Route 2900 bridge is the one that was washed away to be clear above.


That's the power of rushing water.
Be it moving homes 10 feet in a storm surge ...
...or wiping out a bridge.

This is a picture of another bridge where the water was rising and people were driving across as this picture was taken. Crazy high water, crazy rushing water on it's way somewhere to do horrific damage.

Another video of the smaller bridge below.


What was the smaller bridge.

I wrote about flash flooding two days ago in the blog and I suggest you read that post or at least skim through it looking for the part about the Johnstown Flood and why I would take a Major Hurricane any day over a Flash Flood. I'd rather the beast you can try to prepare for and gather your family together to what you hope will be safety or evacuate together than waiting to hear if your loved one survived a disaster on their way to work or school. With hurricanes even a "home grown" hurricane, we can see them coming and prepare. It was kind of freaky for me to see the Flash Flooding as I had just researched a few flash floods the day before.


As for Michael the death toll is 29 however I think it may have risen to 30 though I can't find confirmation just now. As they go through the rubble they will find more people who died most likely. No I'm not a pessimist I just know hurricane damage along the coast where bodies are hidden under debris who we did not know stayed to ride out the storm. Mike did a good show this morning, all his shows are good, and he played a video from a viewer at the end. Mike previously had asked people who watch his Facebook Lives to send in video or feel free to share their stories with each other on his Facebook Page that is a half a million strong and people did. Great video at the end from a viewer who went through Michael and filmed some of the "after the storm" process with his family. It's very real, like Mike.


Before I sign off today and try to figure out what to wear to the fair as it's going to be colder there tonight that it is this morning I want to wish Mike a Happy Birthday. Maybe jeans, boots but what kind of jacket do I wear? Hmnn Carolina problems in a cold October after a very hot September.

So wishing Mike a Happy Birthday.
I knew yesterday someone's birthday was this week.
Well online wise but drove me crazy exactly whose..
In truth I have a few friends born this week.
So for Mike and the rest of them...
Happy Birthday.




Tuesday, October 16, 2018

Tropics Tuesday. 94L Westbound. Atlantic Filled with Convection. Fronts Moving. Atmosphere is Dancing. Winter is Coming But It's Not Over Yer. Music ...


94L above.
Every story has two sides.
Below you can see the other side.


High pressure for now to the North.
A saturated environment to the West.
And it's going to add moisture to that environment.
We can pretty much write this off...
I am concerned on this area down the road.
Something could develop.
Something most likely will over time.


So lot's of color moving into EPAC.
Another flash of color further East.
Upper Level Low to it's North.
Tickling it basically.
It giggles. It flares up.
More flash than substance.


But watching it.
Sometimes things don't develop right then and there.
But they interact down the road at the right spot.

Fronts on the move......


Tropics still have potential 

sat_wv_east_loop-12.gif (640×512)


Is this the most perfect view ever of the tropics and parts of the world? It is to me. Beauty is in the eye of the beholder. The ridge to the North pushes down, compresses and stimulates the wave but nothing going to happen now. The energy from 94L will go West then get entrained in that pumped up flow over the SW and into Texas and bring rain to the East Coast. Some drops of DNA barely traceable in an Ancestry Test will rain on someone in the Northeast. Weather and the atmosphere is a visual ballet to me. Like you dancing in the dark going on instinct. Speaking dancing in the dark, this is one of my favorite songs. Music today is golden, we have a great era of music going on currently.


Is the season over?
No... November is coming.
And October may squeeze out another name.
And something along the coast will blow up.
But we aren't sure just what yet.
Surfs up that's for sure.
Texas still getting flooding rains.
Yet the storms have no name.
Though the result remains the same.


I know everyone wants to see the EURO so there it is....


Stay tuned.


Clues... 
Pieces of a puzzle spread across the wet lawn.
Clues to what happened in the storm last night.
And if one may form next week again.
Stay tuned.

Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter
Follow me.. updating in real time all day.

Ps...PLEASE read yesterday's blog...
...if you are interested in weather history.
Hurricane Hazel and Hurricane Matthew.
Are we done with storms along the East Coast this year?



Song stuck in my mind for the last day or two. Isn't that annoying when that happens? I figured maybe if I listen it I'll become immune to it... Has a great chorus, that's what does it you know? The chorus hooks you in...  someone taught me that as they used to analyze music the way some of us study meteorology. Then again I just like to dance to a good tune.



See it worked........ listened to Ed Sheeran for a while and nothing else remains in my brain.






Labels: , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,