Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Thursday, August 25, 2016

2PM NHC Lowers Chances a Bit 40% in 2 Day, 70% in 5 Day ..



New graphic shows red area pulled further West.
Think it could have been pulled further South but not my call.

Discussion and reasoning from NHC is below




ft_lalo-animated.gif (720×480)

Watch the area around 19N - 20N  that is where the "center" is ...
Again it may have multiple centers.
While over land it's hard to be sure.

Sort of throbs like an old fashioned rock song.
UP, down.. UP ... OUT.. down.. UP
Seems to do best at night.

Visible image.

vis0-lalo.gif (720×480)

Being honest it's a mess.
And it's sitting hovered over Hispaniola...
..so it's normal that it's a mess.

I've said several times I think it could stay weak.
I've said several times it could go West over Cuba.
Or it could get into the Florida Straits westbound.
The more time it spends over land the weaker it gets.
IF the convection was wrapping around the center it would be better.
The convection is sheared off in different directions.


Newest Euro has it here sort of stuck.
That big storm to it's ENE is Gaston.
Keep that in mind but should go out to sea.

Water Vapor Loop makes it hard to find Hispaniola.
All you see is 99L trying to spin.

wv-animated.gif (1120×480)

See the strong, diving ULL between 99L and Gaston?
Really pushing at it. 
Land interaction hurting it.
Barely moving though NHC says 15 to 20 MPH
I'd say way closer to 15 at the most.
Almost anchored over Hispaniola.
Also note to the NNW of 99L the ridge is building.
Of course IF it gets into the Florida Straits.
Or it gets into GOM the ridge could be gone then.
But at this point it looks to like Hispaniola a lot.

So for now what do you do?

You go on about life in South Florida.
You take this time to review your hurricane plans.
Do what you are supposed to do..
Live, love and try to be happy.
And monitor 99L for word it may have developed.

If the NHC lowers chances more at 8PM
You could as some of my friends say stick a fork in it.
If they remain the same keep watching.
There is still a strong chance a tropical cyclone could form.
70% in the 5 day is nothing to laugh off.

It has to move off Hispaniola. 
And it has to avoid Cuba.

latest_wv_loop.gif (535×440)

For now no watches or warnings.
99L may be on life support.
Or it may surprise us tomorrow.
It does have a vortex that has traveled from Africa.
Hard to count it out until it's gone.

Keep watching.
Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter updating in real time.

Ps Check back for updates. 
I may upload a song ;)

And do not forget about Gaston.








99L Still 80% Waiting on Recon. Is Hermine Forming? 64 BILLION DOLLAR QUESTION


8 AM Discussion:


Note the planes are going in to try and get a better handle on 99L
Possibly they can find a center... can't be ruled out.
But it's partially over land and that interferes with everything.
Tropical systems begin over water.
A Low over Louisiana was not a Tropical Cyclone.
That is why it did not get a name.

After 99L gets off of Hispaniola and over water.
We will see for sure what it's got under the hood.
Spoiler alert it could get over East Cuba.
Or it could sit a bit in the Florida Straits and intensify.
If it develops one strong center.
Note some times when they come off land...
..the "center" sort of bounces ... shows up not where it is expected.

I never liked the dangerous scenario the EURO showed.
Because a strong hurricane would break through the ridge.
A strong storm would want to go more North.
As I wrote in last night's post.
The GFS though murky at times has it's value.
How strong is that ridge and how long will it last?

Currently we have a strong tropical wave.
A tropical wave with strong tropical storm force winds.
But no closed center.

We also have a Hurricane that is being ignored.
Gaston has hit Hurricane strength.


The hurricane is noticeable. 
Invest 99L is a kinky wave...


You can see 99L above.
I hate to say this but you just gotta wait...
It may develop close in around Andros Island.
Or it may wander along the Old Bahama Channel near Cuba.


This is your map for today.
Finger of Florida dipping down into tropical waters.
Cuba. Bahamas. Hispaniola.
This is where Invest 99L is hanging out.
Maybe hiding like a pirate of old in some bay somewhere.
Waiting to make it's move.
Gaston the Pirate!!

Not all tropical storms form in the same way. Some roll off the coast of Africa, take a plane down with it over Senegal and roll on to infamy. Others form, fall apart, intensify again when they hit warmer water past 55 West. Some lolly gag their way across the basin from day with a sense of purpose, slam through the Islands killing people and causing destruction and then curving gracefully up towards their chosen city of landfall. See the track for Hugo below. Hermine, another H storm, is not Hugo in any way. There are some models that show it escaping through a break in the trough and moving towards the Carolinas, but most models currently take it towards some part of Florida. Other storms come low through the Caribbean and then oddly turn North, zig zagging a bit and heading North. Each storm is different but they are all subject to the same influences both positive and negative. We are still in search of the H storm for 2016.

Hugo 1989


Hazel 1954


I used those two storms as they are both H storms.
One formed far away by Africa.
One formed close to the Islands.

ft_lalo-animated.gif (720×480)

Now coming back to our area in question.
Last night a strong area of convection developed.
Red is strong, Green is STRONGER.
Watch for the Green.
Watch for the two areas to wrap once it comes over water.
Once it comes over warm water.
To the North of this area is lower levels of shear.
Shear there but not as strong.
The water closer to the Keys is much warmer.

So which exact track does it take?
Interaction with Cuba would delay long term intensity.
Hovering over the Bahamas could create intensity.

There is a ridge coming down now currently.
How long does it stay strong is the question?

sat_wv_east_loop-12.gif (640×512)

Also note the TUTT digging down...
They can be game changers.
They can take all the energy out of a system.
Too much interference.
And sometimes in the right spot they intensify it.

It's all about timing and all about location.
Maybe we are watching Hermine come together now.
Much is up to Invest 99L...
I don't mean that in a touchy feely, New Age way.
I mean that if it develops a good center.
The center becomes vertically aligned...
...and it's able to intensify.
Banding? Outflow?

Then we will have Hermine.
Til then we have Invest 99L

I'll update later today after the planes send back data.
After recon tells us what it finds.
For now.. I got to make new coffee :(
My Nespresso went cold while I was looping.
Happens.
Keep watching...

The GFS and EURO have come to some agreement.
They both see a track near South Florida.
Their landfall circles almost agree.
They disagree on intensity.
And the rest of the track.
Combing models make you feel you are staring at a Picasso.

Models coming together


Picasso .. you be the judge.



Now back to 99L and the flow around our system.

wv-animated.gif (1120×480)
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/wv-animated.gif

For everyone asking about the models.
A good link to use and play with is below:

http://hurricanecity.com/models/

Use it. 
You can click on different models with Google Maps.
Doesn't get much easier than that.


I put the Google Map next to it to show how great this tool is..
I put in the TCVN a model Jim Williams talks on often.
It showed a landfall near Hollywood Florida
That's JUST ONE MODEL...
I used it as an example.

You can do it with multiple models:


Hollywood Beach Florida recently got a Margaritaville.
A lot of new development along the beautiful boardwalk.


I love Hollywood Beach 
One of my favorite hang outs.
It's just ONE model.
But a good performing model. 
So keep it in mind.

That said I'm worried a bit on Florida Keys.
If it stays weak.. would take a lower track.
We will talk on the GOM scenario later.

I don't want to count out the possibility it stays south weak.
Wanders through the very warm waters of the Florida Keys.
Into the Gulf of Mexico. 
Could happen.

Also the models are found on www.tropicaltidbits.com
He also updates with a video that's excellent.

Top Left on www.spaghettimodels.com


Great links, use them and often Mike adds good ones.
Note the radar below added recently.


Remember IF the NHC has validation of a closed system..
..it will upgrade and post a cone.
Til then keep in mind it's there if you live in South Florida.
Or anywhere in Florida.

Besos BobbiStorm 
@bobbistorm on Twitter

Ps. As Stephanie Abrams explained earlier about the GFS Euro Models.
You get what you pay for the there is more $$ spent on the EURO
The GFS could use more $$ to be more accurate.


Wednesday, August 24, 2016

99L Recon Could Not Find a Closed Low. Watching & Waiting. NHC Lowers 2 Day to 50% Keeps 80% for 5 Day.

8 PM


VS 8 AM below


Obviously the red circle of possible development has changed.
Just a little a it bulges N in one part and further W in another part.

In truth the visual presentation of 99L has changed.
It doesn't look very good.
Good call by recon earlier today.
They could not find a strong West wind.
High winds yes but not a closed center.

Our invest can be seen by a orange dot tonight at 10 PM.

wv-animated.gif (1120×480)

Close up.

vis_lalo-animated.gif (720×480)

You can see the bright dot in the middle of the large area.
It looks as if a circulation has tried to form to the NW of that.
And an area spinning below.
Messy. Really.
Sometimes before they come together..
...they look like they are falling apart.
It's not always a pretty process.

Models?


GFS shows a weak storm hugging the coast of Florida.
Some members of the ensemble stay off shore..
Some move in over land further to the North.
Some slide along the coast paralleling the coastline.
In truth there is a plausibility to this scenario...
...if it develops and there is a weakness in the ridge.


Forecasters in the Carolinas are hedging their bets now on the ridge.
Seems it is a shallow ridge with places where a storm might break through.
Time will tell.

The Euro sees a stronger storm moving under a stronger ridge West.
Across Florida somewhere...
South Florida?
Florida Straits?
West Palm Beach?
Pick a spot...
And takes it into the GOM.
However it aims it closer to FL/AL line tonight.
The track has pulled right away from the TX/LA coastline.

I have a problem with both scenarios. And I will preface my thoughts with a center must form and become vertically aligned for us to have a better handle on the end game. Currently it's a large, elongated tropical wave with some cyclonic spin and hard to find center. This happens often in waves that were unable to pull it together early on. 99L has tried twice to pull it together and every time it gets close it falls apart. Shear appears... or multiple centers vie to be the main center. When it pulls together we will have a better idea where it will go. Until then continue to go over your hurricane plans and revise them as needed and make sure you have what you have in case a named storm forms close in and South Florida goes under some sort of Tropical Storm Watch. Know as always waves sometimes stay waves and are unable to pull it together and save the plan for the next waves that work their way WNW to this spot again. A new wave is about to depart Africa as I type this.

The reason I don't like either scenario is they do not make a lot of sense in that normally a stronger system wants to go more to the North and break through a ridge if possible. And a weak system moves more the West under a strong ridge. It is as if the models have flipped the normal preference and find a stronger storm going West across Florida and a weaker storm crawling NNW along the coast of Florida.  

Neither scenario sits right with me and until this wave has a defined center I'm going to watch the wave on various satellite loops and let the wave work out it's inner problems. The next model run may or may not clear this picture up.

Let's look at one of my favorite loops.

latest72hrs.gif (947×405)

Note 99L really doesn't have a "roll" going.
It does on the last frame seem to connect with remains of Fiona.
Note Gaston is rolling along behind 99L


Here's a look at 99L tonight.

ft_lalo-animated.gif (720×480)

A green dot appears in the center of the red dot.
That could be the developing center.
Keep watching.

Chasing tornadoes often is boring.
You can drive and drive and nada.. nothing happens.
You can spend days driving around chasing possibilities.
Watching a tropical entity is enthralling.
You watch on satellite imagery.
You read information coming in from recon.
You watch and discuss it with friends online.
You compare notes.
And then when the storm forms..
You have time to warn people in it's path.
Knowledge is power.
Being able to give people the power to protect themselves is good.

So look over those Hurricane Plans.

I cannot count out an escape to the North.
I cannot promise the ridge will hold.
I cannot say for sure South Florida will have a named storm.

But I am pretty sure that the NHC can and will make that call.
But that call may come sometime in the next 24 hours.

Stay tuned.

Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter

Ps.. There is a dot directly North of PR.
IF that dot grows and convection continues.
We may be closer to a named storm.

latest_wv_loop.gif (535×440)








99L Recon Could Not Find a Closed Low. Watching & Waiting. NHC Lowers 2 Day to 50% Keeps 80% for 5 Day.

8 PM


VS 8 AM below


Obviously the red circle of possible development has changed.
Just a little a it bulges N in one part and further W in another part.

In truth the visual presentation of 99L has changed.
It doesn't look very good.
Good call by recon earlier today.
They could not find a strong West wind.
High winds yes but not a closed center.

Our invest can be seen by a orange dot tonight at 10 PM.

wv-animated.gif (1120×480)

Close up.

vis_lalo-animated.gif (720×480)

You can see the bright dot in the middle of the large area.
It looks as if a circulation has tried to form to the NW of that.
And an area spinning below.
Messy. Really.
Sometimes before they come together..
...they look like they are falling apart.
It's not always a pretty process.

Models?


GFS shows a weak storm hugging the coast of Florida.
Some members of the ensemble stay off shore..
Some move in over land further to the North.
Some slide along the coast paralleling the coastline.
In truth there is a plausibility to this scenario...
...if it develops and there is a weakness in the ridge.


Forecasters throughout the Carolinas are hedging their bets now on the ridge.
Seems it is a thin ridge and there are places where a storm might break through.
Time will tell.

The Euro sees a stronger storm moving under a stronger ridge West.
Across Florida somewhere...
South Florida?
Florida Straits?
West Palm Beach?
Pick a spot...
And takes it into the GOM.
However it aims it closer to FL/AL line tonight.
The track has pulled right away from the TX/LA coastline.

I have a problem with both scenarios. And I will preface my thoughts with a center must form and become vertically aligned for us to have a better handle on the end game. Currently it's a large, elongated tropical wave with some cyclonic spin and hard to find center. This happens often in waves that were unable to pull it together early on. 99L has tried twice to pull it together and every time it gets close it falls apart. Shear appears... or multiple centers vie to be the main center. When it pulls together we will have a better idea where it will go. Until then continue to go over your hurricane plans and revise them as needed and make sure you have what you have in case a named storm forms close in and South Florida goes under some sort of Tropical Storm Watch. Know as always waves sometimes stay waves and are unable to pull it together and save the plan for the next waves that work their way WNW to this spot again. A new wave is about to depart Africa as I type this.

The reason I don't like either scenario is they do not make a lot of sense in that normally a stronger system wants to go more to the North and break through a ridge if possible. And a weak system moves more the West under a strong ridge. It is as if the models have flipped the normal preference and find a stronger storm going West across Florida and a weaker storm crawling NNW along the coast of Florida.  

Neither scenario sits right with me and until this wave has a defined center I'm going to watch the wave on various satellite loops and let the wave work out it's inner problems. The next model run may or may not clear this picture up.

Let's look at one of my favorite loops.

latest72hrs.gif (947×405)

Note 99L really doesn't have a "roll" going.
It does on the last frame seem to connect with remains of Fiona.
Note Gaston is rolling along behind 99L


Here's a look at 99L tonight.

ft_lalo-animated.gif (720×480)

A green dot appears in the center of the red dot.
That could be the developing center.
Keep watching.

Chasing tornadoes often is boring.
You can drive and drive and nada.. nothing happens.
You can spend days driving around chasing possibilities.
Watching a tropical entity is enthralling.
You watch on satellite imagery.
You read information coming in from recon.
You watch and discuss it with friends online.
You compare notes.
And then when the storm forms..
You have time to warn people in it's path.
Knowledge is power.
Being able to give people the power to protect themselves is good.

So look over those Hurricane Plans.

I cannot count out an escape to the North.
I cannot promise the ridge will hold.
I cannot say for sure South Florida will have a named storm.

But I am pretty sure that the NHC can and will make that call.
But that call may come sometime in the next 24 hours.

Stay tuned.

Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter

Ps.. There is a dot directly North of PR.
IF that dot grows and convection continues.
We may be closer to a named storm.

latest_wv_loop.gif (535×440)








80% Red Chances Invest 99L ..Recon Goes in Today. If You Live in South Florida Monitor 99L For Updates. Do You Have a Hurricane Plan? Everyone in Hurricane Land Should Always Have a Plan. Memories of Andrew & Bryan Norcross


8 AM NHC RED 80% Formation in 5 Days.

Let's look at Invest 99L 

rbtop_lalo-animated.gif (720×480)

Infamous morning visible below:


Shows a developing system.
Convection has increased and consolidated.
There is a ball like shape there. 
Rounder.
Some early signs of possible banding.

Put it in motion:

vis_lalo-animated.gif (720×480)

Using funktop loop we can see where the most explosive action.

ft_lalo-animated.gif (720×480)

Not there yet but getting closer.

Some data from the environment around 99L


There is some evidence of a weak West wind.
Need more than that. 
Recon goes in later this morning.


Hate to say this but remnants of Fiona has a stronger signature.
Gaston... so beautiful so far out ...for now.
Kink in the wind pattern near 99L
That is why it's an Invest not a named Storm.
Not a Tropical Depression yet.
Just a strong tropical wave with potential.
Models take this wave and develop it close in.
That's a hard job the NHC has making their forecast.

Models:


Models show a general pattern of movement towards South Florida.
Some of the islands in the Caribbean and Bahamas there as well.
It may get into the Gulf of Mexico way down the road.
It may curve towards a weakness in the ridge to the NNW.
The ridge may hold tight and not allow it through.
The ridge may force it West into the GOM.
Somewhere between a developing storm...
..and a strengthening ridge is the answer.
Does it become a hurricane or Tropical Storm?
Will the ridge have a weakness?
All questions to be answered down the line.

This is where we are today.
Florida is in the top left corner.
Invest 99L is center stage near Caribbean.

wv-animated.gif (720×480)


A lot to discuss this morning and I feel bad in a way that I can't give you an end game as in where exactly is this going to go. I shouldn't feel bad as no forecaster knows that at this time and the models disagree. Being honest. What I can show is the potential storm, it's positives and negatives and the general pattern that may steer a named system towards a landfall.

Why you ask can't I put the tail on the donkey this morning? Because the storm has not formed yet and even if and when it forms it will be a weak system easily prone to the various stronger influences in the atmosphere. When you have a strong hurricane the atmosphere at time bends to the major hurricane as a high develops aloft over the hurricane and it begins to "make it's own steering currents" and is less affected by a trough, a ridge or an upper level low. Upper Level Lows appear slowly, sometimes faster, and become strong steering factors with a developing tropical storm.

Generally a weak named system will want to go west. A tropical depression or low end tropical storm leans "left" meaning west. The stronger a system gets the more vertically stacked it becomes in the atmosphere above it and it wants to to more to the North. Unless there is a total breakdown in the way the tropics work the variation is between West and North at this latitude. Further North they begin to turn towards the NNE and NE and go out to sea along with stronger cold fronts. Later in October and November many times tropical systems go NE across the Caribbean rather than NW. It really most often comes down to Climo and the pattern that is generally set. Note below a map for August Hurricanes.


Not always but often they begin out by Africa forming from waves rolling West bound. Strong waves feel that pull to go North and curve out faster the way Gaston is forecast to go out to sea. Again no path is set in stone as the atmosphere is fluid so even for Gaston take a forecast 4 or 5 days and see what happens next.  Some weaker waves that traveled through negative environment of shear, SAL and just generally dry air form closer to the Islands. Why? SAL begins to evaporate as a negative in that usually there is only so far Saharan Dust can travel in large quantities and it generally lessens later in the Hurricane Season. Dry air comes and goes as does shear as shear intensifies and lessens in real time and real time is never set in stone. Modeling helps.

That brings us to the models. We fell in love with the models for obvious reasons several years back as we want to give you the most reliable forecast and in theory a computer can nail formation days before a tropical forecaster believes a strong looking wave might develop. We use models every day not just during the hurricane season. Every rainstorm, snow storm or blizzard has models crunching out data that forecasters with the NWS putting out forecasts for every city on the map of the United States and that includes Puerto Rico and Guam and places such as those. Forecasters work tirelessly with the NWS updating in real time their forecasts when the next model run shows something different or the actual system changes in real time. I use that term "real time" often don't I? I do it because you have to understand the atmosphere evolves fluidly in real time.

So going to put this into an example most sports fans can follow and even if you don't like sports you should be able to get it as it's common. Take a NFL football team that generally has a good roster (players) and the previous season they had a season good enough to get into the Wild Card game but did not go to the distance. Their team roster is made up of some well known pros and many younger players picked up in trades or in the draft. They have a new quarterback that did great in college but no one is sure if he will make the transition to the NFL where he's playing against professionals not fellow college players. There were some injuries last year that hurt the team. Some games that were close and could have gone either way. A last minute long kick by the opposing team in the last seconds miraculously made it and they lost the game they thought they were going to win. A long Hail Mary pass got caught in the End Zone when the team down by 3 points had only a minute left on the clock after getting the ball back. Everyone says "wait til next season" and Sports Illustrated highlights them as a cover story as a contender for the coming season. The players are healthier, the young guys have more experience and they generally look to bust out this coming season and make a run for the Super Bowl. 

What happens? Do the Miami Dolphins ever pull it together? Will Carolina Panthers come back this year and win the Super Bowl with Cam learning from whatever mistakes were made last year in the final game? Only time will tell... Because there are so many moving parts in football as there are in tropical meteorology. Say that great draft pick gets hurt and is taken out for the rest of the season and his replacement is not up to the job. Many injuries hurt them or the team as a whole doesn't work together as they did the previously year or the best coach has to retire because he's ill and the point is many things can happen. Other teams that look weak come on strong and it's all fluid. It happens in real time and on any given Sunday any team can win. My father used to say it was easier to bet on the dogs because dogs are predictable, they are well trained and they run and when there is a good dog at the track he beats the pack. Jai Alai, something he loved, was harder to predict because you are dealing with people who are less reliable and they don't play the same always. One player could have a fight with his wife or gets sick or is just in a mood and he plays differently on those days. 

Tropical systems are each unique. The conditions for every tropical system are different even if there are some similarities. Yes Katrina and Andrew came in from the East and they tracked across South Florida West bound into the Gulf of Mexico and slammed into Louisiana and Mississippi. However Andrew exploded East of Miami in the Atlantic after fighting dry air and shear since his departure from Africa. Katrina pulled together just off shore East of Miami and gave us a good smack in the face but it was mostly a tree trimmer in the Miami area. The trees took out the electric and it was a busy season for us with multiple landfalls affecting our area. But Katrina exploded in the Gulf of Mexico over the Loop Current. Each storm is different, but there are patterns. We study the pattern to better forecast the next one and we use models to try and get a better forecast with more lead time to warn people living from Texas to Maine as those are places that Hurricanes make landfall in the United States.

Mike from www.spaghettimodels.com was online last night from Chilis I believe. No advertisement here just telling it like it is and he was tweeting.  We discussed the frustration "why can't they just make a forecast" and in reality it's become harder not easier to decide to put out the package and later make changes. Everything is online now, it's just the way of the world. We live in a social world and we talk, exchange information and that's good. I'm part of an online group that discusses privately information between tropical meteorologists around the world who are able to talk and discuss without it being put online. It's an online discussion in email that is not subject to being recorded on some blog or on the Nightly News. In truth information gets out there but it's for educational purposes not entertainment purposes. I'm in a few groups with brilliant meteorologists with big degrees and years of experience and yet no one knows today what will be for sure. We are all learning, sharing and getting better at understanding Hurricanes.

The Internet allows every student of meteorology young or old to access the same models they are using at the NHC, NWS and even at TWC. And we have some excellent models that have bad days such as the GFS that cannot be counted out because generally the Euro is better at picking up tropical formation; the GFS has its good days too. In the old days few had access to models or sat images or radar from Cuba or Bermuda except the weather men or girls on the Nightly News. It's a new world... every word I say is analyzed by some one who has a masters degree in meteorology and worries I am giving out poor information that could lead to death. Really no one ever died from looking at a 10 day model unless, God Forbid, it leads to a heart attack when they see NYC in the cross hairs. And though I do not have a degree in meteorology I studied in it college and probably know climo, hurricane history and geography better than many as per my life long studies and I can write and I do so here regularly. I also write other material professionally, but this is my passion and I share my thoughts. Life in 2016. I agree on many levels with Mike, just make a forecast and or give your thoughts you can change them in real time this far out. I agree with Bryan Norcross about worrying on models vs watching and evaluating the wave itself.

https://www.wunderground.com/blog/bnorcross/getting-ready-to-get-ready

Bryan Norcross addressed this last night. He's right. He's always right. When you see Bryan Norcross on TWC you know things are happening. And when you live in hurricane country you should have developed a plan at the start of the season. When a tropical storm moves towards Florida you put that plan in place. That simple. Hurricanes are one of the only natural disasters we can prepare for so we really are one step ahead of other places prone to sudden earthquakes or twisters And yet... all of us who have been through big hurricanes remember and never forget. It's one thing to chase storms, which I've done, and another to have a hurricane chase you and come to your home and your family. Trust me storm chasing is much easier than staying up all night upstairs huddled together in a hallway near the bathroom (safest spot often) listening to Bryan Norcross. It's something you never forget.


Alfred Spellman follows my blog and is a friend.
Alfred knows Miami and Hurricanes well.

Normally he's investigating stories for movies.


He knows Miami very well.
I'm sure Alfred has a Hurricane Plan.
Do you?
If so you may have to put it into place this weekend.
If you don't have a plan ...get one.

http://www.sun-sentinel.com/news/weather/hurricane/sfl-hc-beforeprep-storygallery.html

So those are my thoughts.
It's that simple.
If you choose to live in Hurricane Country.
Make sure you have a Hurricane plan.

South Florida may have to put it into action.
It may slide through the Florida Straits and miss a direct hit.
It may curve off shore towards Carolinas.
It may never really develop as more than a weak system.
Miami and the rest of the tropics are beautiful.
New Orleans... love it.
Love Savannah.
Those Carolina beaches...
Galveston.

Enjoy it, live it but keep a plan handy.
Just in case.

Bryan Norcross remembers like everyone else.


Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter

Ps. I will update later today when we have more data from recon.
But what I said here when I went long is the real story.
Potential is potential. Until it's realized it's just that.
Don't say we didn't warn you.
Don't say we didn't share long day models...
Stay informed.
Have a Hurricane Plan.

You are lucky to live today in paradise.
In 1900 and 1926 they didn't see it coming.


A lot of songs below were popular in 1992.
Some I don't remember.
I'll always remember the voice of Bryan Norcross


I was on Miami Beach during Andrew.
I remember it well.
Could hear the sound of the surf over the wind..
..far off in the distance.
The sounds of a hurricane.
Wild.
Memorable.