Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Sunday, August 19, 2018

Summer Sunday, Atlantic is Quiet. Do What You Love. It Won't Stay Quiet Forever. Trouble Could Bubble Up Close in GOM or Along East Coast .. New Orleans Drainage and Flooding History Link At the Bottom ... Musical Medley of Shakespeare, Taylor Swift and Camila Cabello

Nothing much is happening in the Atlantic Basin today.
Digging deeper into discussion from the NHC.
The paragraph below refers to the wave that exited Africa.
Most recent wave to come off of Africa...

You can see how quiet it is in our basin.

The wave that came off does have legs.
But isn't expected to do much.
Models don't expect it to do much.
There has been weak support for a TD
That support comes and goes.

You can loop this.
But the image shows it flaring up after coming off.
So worth watching.
Unless you have something better to do....
Maybe chasers are headed to the Pacific.
The Pacific is hot.
The Atlantic is not.

I think what is most interesting is that the N ATL is hot.
Maybe upwelling remains from last season in the MDR...
(that's a joke by the way... some will get it)

What worries me is this.
If something forms close to the East Coast.
There is abundant warmth for it to bubble.
Bubbling as in bubble, bubble, toil and trouble.

It's an illusion to MacBeth.
You see MacBeth ran to the witches for help.
Seeing into the future.
It didn't really work out so well ...
Reminds me of people running after models.

Think the GFS EURO and CMC ....
If you are interested in Shakespeare go for it.
Funny Cliff Notes.

The reality is this is the time to enjoy what's left of summer.
Birds are chirping outside my window (it's annoying)
Cicadas sing suddenly before a rain storm (I hate them)
It's hot and humid kind of like Miami ...
It rained last night, heavy, wild but I was inside.
Cool, comfortable relaxing with my husband.
Enjoying the weekend.
One way or the other.

The truth is MacBeth is a really nasty story about a King who killed anyone in his way or who he thought was in his way. It's not as emotionally depressing as Hamlet but it's got great lines you remember forever. Hurricanes are like Shakespeare. They can be scary, horrible and tragic or they can just be beautiful storms spinning out in the Atlantic looking beautiful on visual imagery and falling apart as they get closer to the coast in the Fall and the Trof Queen rushes to meet and greet the said hurricane and most often the Trof wins and the hurricane goes safely out to sea. Not such a bad scenario, it helps the economy a bit as everyone rushes out to buy hurricane supplies and then feels victorious (or oddly let down) after the hurricane goes out to sea to Ireland or Scotland or some land far away in the North Atlantic. I could show a few clips of a movie from MacBeth but those scenes more scary and dark than a music video so let's just enjoy the music and party on as this is the end of Summer. How do I know that? Am I a wizard? Did I consult the three witches known now days as the Euro, the GFS or the beautiful Canadian? Nooooooooo I looked at the Calendar. 

Meteorological Fall begins on September 1st

And when fronts begin to dip down there is a correlating oddity in that those west bound tropical waves begin to curve more to the WNW and head towards the siren song of the cold front. And, that's where we usually have our real battleground set up. With the Atlantic from say Jacksonville North all the way up to Maine being so ridiculously warmer than normal it will produce meteorological storms of possibly historical significance. It's not a good set up and New England and the Mid Atlantic will be very lucky if they finish the hurricane season without seeing a hurricane. Let's hope for some luck on that one. Usually they get lucky, but you can't always bank on Lady Luck being your friend.

Music videos often mirror classic tales. You can see the illusions here to Hamlet and MacBeth if you really want to go there or you can just enjoy the music and dance. I could have gone to a concert in Miami to see Taylor Swift and her fantastic oh my gosh opening act Camila Cabello but I'm in Carolina and said concert was on Saturday Night and started early and I do the Jewish Sabbath which ends late in the summer after sundown so no I didn't go. See if it had been winter when the sunset is earlier I could have would have gone. But some people sent me videos and I a blast and that's what life is about... being true to yourself, enjoying what you do and what you love. I had a wonderful "Shabbos" in Carolina yesterday doing my thing. I can do my thing another time in Miami if given the opportunity. I saw Willie Nelson perform at the Hard Rock with my brother one Sunday night for my birthday (his treat) and it was great, packed audience but less special effects ... Just Willie being Willie doing what he loves to do. 3 minutes in she talks on how shy she was as a little girl and how her life changed so much over time. How much has your life changed? Are you still who you were hiding in the closet singing Taylor Swift songs when your parents went to Publix or are you out on a stage in front of 60,000 fans or are you simply happy singing in the shower? 

Not much going on in the tropics. That will change but where or when I can't say for sure as I am not living and dying by the models nor am I going into the forest looking for witches to tell my future. I'm just biding my time, having a good time and enjoying watching the loops, the always beautiful water vapor loop showing subtle signs of what may or may not happen down the line.

Now look what you made me do? I went longer than expected but had fun writing and I enjoy writing so that's good. Going to enjoy the day knowing that down the road there will be more to talk about than waxing poetic on Miami girls who make it in the big time singing to their home town audience. She went to high school in Miami, Southwest Miami, so that makes her a home town girl. We never forget high school do we? Puts a stamp on our lives. Made in Miami :)

Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter

Ps... a very good article to read if you like weather history and geology history and how they clash and work together or against each other below. New Orleans from the start had problems with flooding, as did Charleston and Key West, but it's a beautiful place to live so the early settlers found high ground and life went on. Fast forward a few hundred years and they tried to fix the flooding problems and the "city" expanded into areas it probably shouldn't have expanded into but there wasn't much urban planning back in the day and that's how we got to where we are now and what happened when Katrina a hurricane that formed close in just off shore of Miami and after making landfall in South Florida kept on going to other ports of call along the Gulf of Mexico; as many hurricanes have done such as Betsy and Andrew to name a few. 

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Friday, August 17, 2018

Friday Friday Tropical Update 99L Hanging On Creeping Towards the Caribbean. Ernesto Still Tropical For Now. What's Next?

Low chances of development.
But still hanging on.
Note below image.
This is the image that makes the most of what it's got.
Shows the color better than others.
Every little rain shower ....

 Old time favorite of mine.
Kind of like an old boyfriend you forgive for getting old.
Old is good as we only get better :)
Nah... really just mean with all their foibles..'s still the one I go to.
I like the wide open view.
Easy for me to browse.
Then later find a satellite I want to go to for specifics.
Note the lack of intense waves by Africa.
Continued Convection in the Caribbean.
99L with it's scattered energy.
Some of it is in the Caribbean Sea.
Some of it is far from the Caribbean.
Basically it's all over the place.

Jim Williams a good friend and great tracker says..
Pressures continue to be low in that region.
It's basic i know but correct.
To get a storm you need more than warm water and low shear.
You need pressures to start to drop.
And they aren't dropping.

Below we have an image we use to study the waves.
Way before they had public names they had pouch names.
We tracked pouches (think of a wave pocket)

Earthnull below.
Nada spinning in the region.
Because pressures have not fallen.

Kind of basic I know.
Listen sometimes weather in the tropics can be boring.
This year the North Atlantic is hot.

Keep watching.
Have a really great weekend.
I know you can almost smell Pumpkin Spice Latte in the air.

Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter

Ps...For Fishing. First Tape you had to record twice.

Some great links to view for more tropical action...
down the road... 
In September if not late August!

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Thursday, August 16, 2018

UPDATED. 5 PM TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO ---- Invest 99L Doing It's Thing. TS Ernesto Moving Towards Ireland. Areas in the Atlantic Being Watched and Discussed. It's August. Find a Beach, Dance to the Music But Pay Attention to Your Weather Apps and Alerts.

Ernesto is now a Tropical Storm.
Short lived but a TS never the less.
I feel like it earned it's wings.
Maybe became legitimate.
Like finding who you are on Ancestry.
Discussion explains it below.

Tightened up.
Visible on Earthnull.

Images below.

Much better signature below.
Tropical Storm.
No longer Subtropical.

As for Invest 99L
Models still playing with it.
Has a narrow window over the next few days.
Maybe it it located to the North Atlantic...

Always does it's best late in the day.

Another view of 99L

Close up view of 99L
If it has a "center" trying to form.
It's in that larger white mass.

Keep watching.

You can see 99L moving towards the Caribbean.
Worth noting the old wave is to the West of it.
The one that dumped flooding rain on Trinidad and Tobago 

Stay tuned....
Again it's a long term process.
It's an interesting process.
No Killer Cane there...
... weather moving Westbound.
With a chance it may intensity.

Keep reading if you did not read this blog earlier.
Or to review what I said.

This is the State of the Tropics Thursday Morning.
Ernesto doing it's thing up in the N Atlantic.
Invest 99L doing it's thing.
What is 99L's thing you ask?
It's being a tropical wave.

A tropical wave being "investigated" . . .
. . . that means it's being watched basically.

Close up of that part of the Atlantic shown below.
Using the site above...

You see Ernesto tightly wound up.
Down below you do not see 99L tightly wound up.
There is a "disturbance" in the force...
Kinks in the wind barbs.
Far from organized
So why are we watching it?
Models like it.
And it put on quite a show yesterday.

Still there this morning. 

Note intensity modeling likes it.
Models could be very off.
We watch, we wait, we go on with life.
And Invest 99L keeps doing it's thing.

Model illustrations courtesy of Levi Cowan
He is always visually exacting.

So what is the big deal here exactly? It's a large wave with several areas that could fire up and become the main center ..........if a center develops........and where it develops (if it develops) would tell the story track wise. If it doesn't develop it just limps into the Caribbean fighting shear and trying to possibly develop later. That later for people along the cities of the Gulf of Mexico catches their attention. The lead part of the wave that is higher catches the attention of the people in PR who are still recovering from last year. The NHC is watching the area further to the rear and remember their graphic is not a track or a cone but an an area where it can develop if it develops. 

John Morales out of Miami isn't a believer.
He's a voice well respected in Miami and S Florida.

He gives it 2 days.
"Not a concern"
Many people in the Islands are praying on that.

If 2018 is the Year of the Subtropical Storm in the North Atlantic it gives the Islands a chance to continue recovering from last year's historic hurricane season. Note again as I have said many people in South Florida still have blue tarps on their rooftops. And a bad roof during the hurricane season always adds stress. Even when there is no Invest there is always a weak tropical wave passing through the Florida Straits, over Cuba and across South Florida.

Let's keep them weak....

Interestingly some mets are watching other features..
..features not officially an Invest.
Possibly because of systems like Debby and Ernesto...
..any ULL in the Atlantic with moisture is watched this year?

Flip sides of a coin.

You can see above 99L 
You can also see the convection they are watching.
Below you see the WV Image.
The ULL comes out of hiding in the WV Image.
Located to the NW of 99L

Upper Level Lows tickle the environment.
On a very simplistic level.
They enhance convection in tropical waves.

Bottom Line...
Keep watching.

And if you live in the Mid Atlantic or NE...
...stay tuned to your local weather sources.
The NWS alerts...
..Weather Radio.
Weather Apps.
Flooding has been a persistent problem.
Flooding "Up North" has been this summer's big threat.
Flash Floods happen fast.
Knowledge is power.
Stay abreast of fast moving weather changes in your area.
Worry less on tropical waves in the tropics.
(Unless you're in the Islands... 
... worrying is locational afterall.

As for me in North Carolina ...
..I'm watching the slow progression of a front.
The passage of summer into fall.

As always Spaghetti Models covers it all!
Bottom right - there is a Twitter Feed.
In the quiet times it goes off topic.
Mets love sports ... 
Mets travel and watch sunsets.
But during weather events it comes alive...
...with very good information.
So check it out as needed ;)

Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter

Ps.. I'll update as needed throughout the day.
But mostly today is a day to just watch and wait.
Tropics become more active as August progresses.

Mike is selling a tee shirt he designed.
Good graphic.
Seasons have prime time vs June 1st to Nov 30th.
August 15th shows a peak of activity.
Without a MJO or Kelvin Wave.
Just plain old Climo.

August 16th!
Typically shows an increase in tropical activity.

As always be yourself.
"If you don't like my story...
.... go write your own."
The always incomparable Camila Cabello 
(A sense of humor always is good!)

The music matches the make up today :)

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Wednesday, August 15, 2018

UPDATED! Invest 99L in Atlantic Heading Towards Caribbean. Subtropical Storm Ernesto Forms in the North Atlantic. Are There Signs in the Atlantic That Soon There May Be Something to Watch? Models Imply... Climo Implies... Waiting...Flooding Trinidad and Tobago From Last Tropical Wave

Invest 99L Forms in the Atlantic.
Headed towards the Islands.
Caribbean Bound?

And like that there's something to watch.
NHC watching it.
Models running.
20% in 5 days.
Mike's site is filled with maps and cones.

99L will move W to WNW.
Ernesto Headed N and then NE.
Models below for Invest 99L

The issue as always with any system in this location is that shear is usually strong at the gateway to the Caribbean. As August moves into September this shear naturally lessens making the Caribbean a more possible location for tropical trouble. Usually if a storm has not formed before the Islands it's hard to get it going later though often storms like Harvey limp along until they get to warmer water and better conditions. Hurricanes like Harvey are rare and don't come along every year, it's just an example and reminder. This is the wave I mentioned earlier today that throughout the day has grown in size convective wise and has become harder and harder to ignore. Note not all yellow circles become Invests immediately so that should be a point of reference to concerns down the road if this develops.

As I said earlier today at the bottom of this blog...
...the last wave slammed into Trinidad and Tobago.
Much flooding was a result of that wave.
You can see 99L entering stage right below.

GOES16-CAR-13-1000x1000.gif (1000×1000)

Another view below.

Stay tuned and keep reading.
Below Ernesto discussion is wave discussion IE 99L
You can see the Mimic Loop below.
But this image shows how the environment is moist..
..and currently favorable to future development.

That's a solid ITCZ above.
The loop is at the end of this blog from earlier today.
When I was discussing the wave that became 99L

Track below.

Where is it going?
Far away from the East Coast.
On it's way to England, Ireland and beyond.
It's been very warm in North Europe this summer.

All you really need to know is below.
On the map for a few days.
It's a statistic.
That means we move on to the F name.
Lot's of named storms this year...
...yet nothing much to write home about.
That's good for the Islands who are rebuilding this year.
Actually blue tarps cover homes in Florida still.

Note this isn't expected to be a Tropical Storm.
Subtropical to Extratropical.

It's clear up there in the North Atlantic.
Will the luck of the Caribbean Islands continue?
Looking due South o  Ernesto you see another area.
They almost mirror each other in ways.

hiatlsat_None_anim.gif (768×496)

It's worth noting that the last strong wave...
... made landfall in Trinidad and Tobago.

We didn't hear much about it.
We've been dealing with flooding in the Mid Atlantic Region.
But even without a name tropical waves cause misery.
Patterns in the short term repeat.
Eventually waves become Invests.
Invests often become Tropical Depressions.
August tuns into September.

In the Miami area we watch the Caribbean.
We are the gateway to the Caribbean.
Many of our friends come from the Islands.
Much of Miami is made up of people who came from there.
Phil Ferro reflects this in his tweets.
He and others are always watching the Caribbean Weather.

This is what we call a Wave Train.
Before named storms we have tropical waves.

latest72hrs.gif (947×405)

You can see two things in the loop above.
The tropical lifeline in the N ATL for Ernesto
The active ITCZ moving West...
Part of it lifts WNW/NW towards Cuba/Florida/Bahamas

The beat goes on....
Even if models don't "see" anything forming.
Waves become stronger, time moves on.
Keep Watching.
The GFS is showing lowered pressures down the line.
Climo almost always wins.

I'll admit I thought playfully Ernesto should be a Caribbean Storm.
But in truth Climo shows it's face around August 25th.
MJO is moving into that area for a brief visit.
Stay tuned.

Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter

Ps Prayers for those in Italy trying to dig through the debris to find the bodies and find the reason that the bridge there fell down. Bridges don't usually fall down except in nursery rhymes that were really allegory for political discussion. King George =  Humpty Dumpty. It's scary, terrifying and sad that this beautiful bridge simply "fell down" during a "violent storm" and much has been made of the weather. Could the weather or a lightning strike specifically hit a weakened part of the bridge or is this an explosion as some have said vs lightning. People argue online the poor maintenance of structures in Europe due to EURO budget restraints, mean Tweets by a politician in Germany with regard to the tragedy in Italy; even whispers of terrorism have been heard in the wind as usually someone goes there. What really happened will be figured out down the road but for now they have moved from rescue to recovery of bodies. 

Could weather really have played a part in this or was it a coincidence? 

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