Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Monday, June 18, 2018

Tropics Quiet. Texas and Louisiana Getting Tropical RAIN. Heat Wave Hits Early Before Summer Officially Arrives. Go to the Beach or the Movies.Cool Off. Eat Ice Cream...


Monday in the Tropics.


Atlantic Side


EPAC...


Wave discussion....


A Westbound Wave...


Yes there's a wave.
It's the 3rd wave mentioned.
Shear is there.
But so is the wave.
This is the dance of the tropics.



There's a frontal boundary.
East of Florida.
Dangling..






The real story in our part of the world is the extreme early heat on the East Coast. I think the issue here is timing in that it came on like gangbusters. The weather was nice, it was getting warmer, it's only June and the Summer Solstice hasn't set in and then suddenly it feels like late Summer in early June. It throws people off in ways that are hard to explain. People get testy, they drive crazy, they don't feel like things are aligned properly. We have such an illusion as to the actual control we have in the world with regard to Mother Nature. It's as if she is programmed at some point and continues marches to her own tune. She starts Summer too soon and Winter often lasts too long. And, that's weather you can't control it but you can watch and have a great ride like on one long wave to shore. The shore in the case of most of America is Winter and it follows after Fall and we capitalize them as they are raised to a level of a person such as the President and the Governor. Let's just treat this June as if it's early July and move on.



Waves form off of Africa and roll West not giving a damn if there is Saharan Dust out there because there's always SAL out there. That's life in June and June is always a crap shoot in the Tropics. Either it's way too quiet or it's way too hot. And, people online in the weather community get nasty, testy and extremely judgmental. And you know why? They want something to really track the way a surfer wants a wave and someone up at bat wants that pitch that's gonna be just right for him to make a grand slam out into the stands. Yeah, if you had lots of money and time you can jump on a plane and go anywhere you want until the weather gets to where you want it on the TV dial and then fly back and get back in the race. Life really isn't a song but we can live our life like it is a song as Jimmy says, so if you don't like the weather today just take a deep breath, stay in the AC, drink some Iced Tea and wait it out cause time is a moving fast this year. And, no this Heat Wave is not epic as much as early and that makes people nervous because if it's this hot in June what will August bring?



Something to think on with regard to the Tropics in these quiet days while we watch Carlotta wash up on the shores of the EPAC and we watch the little yellow X make it's way steadily towards the Texas coastline and it will rain in Beaumont Texas and parts of Louisiana will get rain. And, that is life in the Tropics on the Monday after a wonderful Father's Day Weekend where I ate some sort of Espresso Chocolate Ice Cream and I'll sip cold vegetable juices today and do penance and Thank God I'm alive and not complain it's hot today because it's gonna be even hotter as the Summer marches on. But I am watching for that really great wave that is going to make it past the Saharan Dust and develop somewhere close in to the coast and hopefully I'll be at the beach to see it roll by. Trust me as a Miami girl I know HOT and July in Miami is HOT but eventually I'll be back there. Til then I'm enjoying the Carolinas and my friends online and my kids on Snapchat. Life is good. It's hot.. eat Ice Cream! Or sip Iced Tea. Get in the groove we are just starting this Summer Game we play and it's going to move towards a crescendo as July moves towards August and then things will really shake, rattle and roll.


So go buy a kiddie pool and put it in your backyard and climb in even if you don't have any kiddies. Throw some ice cubes in it if it's really hot. Go take a ride to the beach or to the lake or put on a beach movie.. go to the movies and stimulate the economy and find a theater that cranks the AC up real cold and enjoy. This is how we live, this is what we do. My kids went to the beach yesterday in Seattle (oh what a beach) Alki Beach always beautiful with palm trees and mountains in the distance and my son in Miami took his baby daughter to the beach for the first time and let her toes tangle down so she could feel the sand between her toes because that's who we are... And, way Up North in Up State NY where it was so hot it felt like Miami my daughter put her little boy into the pool to cool off and for the always important photo shot. Be like a child, enjoy and embrace the heat or crank up the AC and enjoy.


The Hurricane Season is on it's way whether you want it to be or not. The Hurricane Season is on it's way even if El Nino is building up in the Pacific or not. The Hurricane Season is on it's way even if the water in the far Eastern Atlantic is still cool enough to feel like Pudget Sound. It won't stay that way. Trust me. Oh and if you have a Publix go enjoy the cool AC and the friendly staff and shop for some Hurricane Supplies also buy some Ice Ceam and Popsicles for those long hot summer days before the hurricanes threaten your world.


You got to think like a kid.
Or a fantastic parent.



Get your toes in the water....
...your feet in the sand!
if there's no beach.
Take a bath!



Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter

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Saturday, June 16, 2018

GOM Rainmaker Texas Bound on Father's Day. Trying to Pull Itself Together... And a Reminder to Prepare for Hurricane Season 2018. Do You Know How to Make a Perfect Poached Egg? X 91L Reminds me of a Messy Poached Egg.




20/20 chances over the next 2 to 5 days.
It's running out of days...

Mike puts it well.
Blob Alert.
Blob alert with wicked weather.
But no closed circulation.
No circulation = no name.



You can see it below here...



At 11 AM Sunday AM.
One part left for the coast...
Another part remained behind.

 Fantastic discussion by Cranky.
It's a gale.
Or rather it's producing gales.
But no closed circulation.
This hot potato been passed to the NWS.
Worth saying this is TX and LA
Not just a Texas mess.




Good graphics from "Cranky"



Note his placement of the ULL



And special extra credit...
Africa still producing tropical waves.
Come August the water will be warm enough.
Maybe late July....
Feels like July already!!



A brief update today on Father's Day. The remnants of 91L are still partially attached to the tip of the Yucatan and another part of it set sail for the coast. It reminds me of a Jimmy Buffett song A semi permanent feature of a temporary feeling or in this case a batch of strong convection that is rooted to the tip of the Yucatan and won't go away.. Every morning I wake up, look at the satellite loop and there is a part of what was 91L still attached to the Yucatan. That can be funny or a problem down the road. Part of it going towards the coast of Texas and another part of it remains. In the tropics we don't like to see semi permanent features that set up and wait until conditions get better way down the road. Keep watching. Sometimes they can evolve when conditions become suddenly favorable, much like an old dead and decayed front dangling across Florida that doesn't go completely away while it waits to find a chance to spin up into something.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6H2O4AX3EpI

Good song.
Good blog.

http://www.stormhamster.com/entry/e061718.htm





Last night.
This morning.
Still there, still messy.



Somewhere under that mass of convection.
A low pressure center could be forming.
There is much discussion on this ....
... much convection has come and gone.
Yet the elusive hunt for a center goes on.
It is possible it will finally gel in some way.
Looked better last night...
Give it a few hours.
It flares up.
It falls apart.
It never goes away........


Note Cranky's Tweet's last night.


We went from this...
...earlier on Saturday


To this at Midnight on Sunday.


It flares up.
It falls apart.

In reality two areas are fighting for control.
Centers trying to form at different spots.
In different layers of the atmosphere.
With a center ...
...or without a center.
There will be rain.
And, probably wind and rain.

But to be a designated Tropical System.
Tropical Depression or Tropical Storm...
It needs to have a closed center.
Them's just the rules.
I didn't make them up.
Rules are important.
We will see what happens.

I feel like every meteorologist or weather person wants to be the one to scream "I see it!! It's forming! A new center is forming!!" and I feel like there is at least one meteorologist locked in the closet at the NHC yelling through the locked door "just make it 91L again, just tag it 91L again" and well only time will tell who wins that battle but in truth this really does come down to the area of convection once known as Invest 91L that was downgraded as it was not able to find it's true center. To be a Tropical Depression or TS Beryl it has to have a closed center otherwise it's just  strong, stormy weather.

Let me explain something that needs to be kept in mind over and over as the Hurricane Season progresses. Models are simply computer programs that put out a product that is only as good as the information put in and they are unable to create a Tropical Storm they can only show where one could develop and how strong it might be and where it might make landfall and they get another chance to do it every six to twelve hours. Life doesn't give us "do overs" as in the real world we mess up or we do a great job and if we mess up we try to do better the next time. The girl gets away and you don't not get a chance to see her again. Someone else lands the big job you wanted and you have to make do with what you got going or find another opportunity. Only on a Soap Opera One Life to Live could a pregnant woman go over the Brazilian Water Fall and show back up in Landview with the baby alive, well and try to get the baby's father back to become a Super Couple again! This is not Hollywood, it's tropical meteorology and until a closed, verified center develops and maintains itself and the models are run from that starting point do the models get to be as good as we hoped they would be when they were developed. Somewhere along the line we have raised models up to some Super Star status as if they were Divas on a Soap Opera or Super Heroes ready to leap tall buildings in a single bound or however that goes. Even the EURO on it's best day is not Superman.


Maybe you watched One Life to Live. I know a lot of meteorologists who did so... Check out the early names for Hurricanes and the list is littered with heroes and heroines beyond any coincidence. If you did here's the epic scene where an alive Tina (who they thought had died pregnant going over the falls in South America) showing up at her husband's second wedding ceremony. Not even a Rabbi, a Minister and the Mormon Tabernacle Choir could keep Tina from running in and handing the new groom his baby that survived going over the waterfall while in her womb. 


Cliff Notes:



Wow. 
If 91L was like Tina...
..she would turn into Wilma.
And intensify like crazy by the Yucatan.
But it's June of 2018.

Wilma doing her rapid intensification.


This is not Wilma... 
It's having some problems.
And that is what happens in June.
It's why the rhyme goes:
"June too soon"

Some years, rare years, June starts off with a bang in the tropics but usually a weak barely there area of convection battles shear and an Upper Level Low as well as outflow from EPAC systems in June and yet somehow, sometimes they battle their way towards land sometimes becoming a named storm just before landfall. Either way.... rain will be the name of the game. And, some in Texas could use the rain as long as it's not too much rain.

Ever play Chess? I'm not a huge Chess fan though I appreciate the brain power it takes to sit for hours trying to stay three steps ahead of your opponent. Personally I like Backgammon. But I used a Chess analogy on Friday to explain why 91L didn't form earlier in the week when the models were throwing their support behind formation of Tropical Storm or even a Hurricane. If you just looked at that the environment 91L was in you would see it was sheer folly to think it could pull itself together and wrap especially if you looked at the satellite imagery more than the models. 




Basically Aletta and Bud were the King and Queen pieces on the Chess board. When you are watching the Yucatan in June you have to take into account that the King and Queen are in the EPAC and in this case the Bishop Carlotta showed up to join them. It was not a favorable area for anything of substance to form from day one. But the models.... all hot and excited in June like Pre Teens out on their First Date were showing huge possibilities that did not make any sense when you saw an area with multiple centers with too much shear, dry air and interference from an active Epac. At some point you have to be able to know when the models are not reliable and when they are spot on. They were not spot on.  Models are not Superheroes and they are in fact only computer programs being run and being rerun over and over. Until there is a closed, verified circulation with good data from recon or ground observation the models are only taking their best guess estimate of what might happen and nothing more. They have become raised to personality status "EURO KING" "GFS BAD BAD GIRL" but they are just computer programs. Garbage in... Garbage Out. Plain and simple. And, when you get a lot of garbage it's best to take out the garbage and start over on the next run. 


Extremely well said.
Read that over and over please.


Again it's a crowded area.
Hard to develop.
It needs a closed center.
NHC giving it low odds.
It's got odds.
It's in the game.
But low odds.

One last thing I want to say about the 2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season here is that I don't want to hear how cool the water is by Africa and how El Nino most likely will develop, winter may start early and we won't have as many hurricanes in 2018 as we did in 2017 it will just be your average normal year. Be scared, be very scared of "normal, average hurricane years" and prepare rather than be scared. Nothing may develop that threatens your town, your home and your loved ones. But I am more worried that the water close in to the Continental United States in Hurricane Country is warm, red hot than I am about how cool the Atlantic out near Africa is... This is not a numbers game, it is about how one storm may find it's way to your home town. And, it's about preparing properly in case that happens. Should a center form suddenly . . . the water will be warm enough to get something going but again it needs a center before it can be more than heavy rain and strong winds affecting Texas.


A site that Mike highlights on www.spaghettimodels.com is from a local Florida News Station and they have really great maps. One shows how warm the water is as in available energy to produce a Hurricane or Tropical Storm and this map changes constantly in real time based upon current conditions. Currently the water is hot in parts of the Gulf of Mexico and off the Florida coast and up along the Carolina Coast as you can see up above. Worry on that more and less on how cool the water is in June near Africa as in August it will be warm enough and ready for a few great tropical waves to develop. IF they make it to our part of the world our water is very warm and will be very welcoming so even if they do not develop far out they can become Home Grown Problems.

My last thought today on this area in the GOM.
If you ever saw me try to make poached eggs...
...you'd understand.
Or maybe you have tried.
It's not so easy to get them to be perfect.

I've never learned how to make great poached eggs like Aunt Ada did, but my younger brother Ronnie kind of mastered it somehow. Maybe he got that gene... making the poached eggs properly gene if there is one. Mine really do come out all messy with strands going in every direction, a few trying desperately to warp around what appears like a yellow yolk in the bottom of a pan with threads of white everywhere not really coming together. After enough time elapses it begins to resemble a poached egg (if you scoop away all the strands floating everywhere) and with a slotted spoon place it onto the plate and pretend it's a "poached egg" but it ends up looking more like a badly formed soft boiled egg outside the shell. Why am I talking about poached eggs? Because when I looked at the satellite imagery tonight on a long loop that is what I saw was how my poached eggs look when they aren't really coming together. Not my Aunt Ada's perfect poached eggs that were like Cat 3 poached eggs but my failed attempts at me trying to make a normal poached egg.


GOES16-GM-GEOCOLOR-1000x1000.gif (1000×1000)

I have bought poaching pots.
Tried them in the microwave.
Kind of comes together.......
But it's not picture perfect.

You try them...
....go for it.
Next time I want a poached egg...
I'll order it in a restaurant!
Best poached eggs ever are in Savannah
http://www.goosefeatherscafe.com/menu/

We are doing pizza and ice cream today.
Got my husband who is a father, stepfather and Grandpa breakfast.
Bagel place he likes that's "New York" style.
Tonight we be doing Pulled Brisket.
I'll leave the poached eggs to the experts.
Yup... X 91L a big messy poached egg gone wrong.
But the rain, the wind still remains.

Besos BobbiStorm
@Bobbistorm on Twitter


Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter.

Ps.... Here's to my youngest brother Ronnie. Happy Father's Day! He's here with my nephew Chaim and my youngest son who has been living with him since I moved to Raleigh. In truth I am in Miami constantly but over time he has been there for my son (and other members of the clan) when needed and as my brother says he is more a partner in crime to my son than an Uncle. But he is "Uncle Ronnie" and always there to go root the Marlins on when in town or go for a long ride or sneak away somewhere like the Keys or Naples on a Sunday Afternoon. My Uncle was a Gator and my father was a UM Hurricane so I root for both ;) and the Marlins of course!



Me and Ronnie.
As for the remnants of 91L
(you do see it coming together right....)

GOES16-GM-07-1000x1000.gif (1000×1000)

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Friday, June 15, 2018

UPDATED 4PM Friday. New Yellow X EAST of Yucatan. ..91L Gone. NHC Watching Multiple Waves. Convection to the EAST of the Yucatan Still Flaring Up. How Important is ACE? Looking Towards a Hurricane Free Father's Day.

What a tangled web we weave....
...when we blindly follow models.
Old school rule:
Watch flare ups of convection for 48 hours!







Upper Level Low.
Trough nearby.
Where will the moisture go?

GOES16-GM-08-1000x1000.gif (1000×1000)

Stay tuned.

As I said below (please read if you have not earlier read my thoughts) the models that took the once and future Beryl up towards Texas were off base and not reading the situation perfectly. You can't blame them as every small change in a fluid set up will make the new model output old by the time it predicts a tropical storm or hurricane. Until there is ONE closed, verified center of circulation models are poor at best. Better than nothing as they show us where to look for tropical formation. The GFS and EURO have been taking turns showing tropical storms and hurricanes all month since way before Alberto didn't form the previous area being investigated. This is what happens every June for numerous reasons and a good meteorologist has to use his own instincts and knowledge of climo before jumping into bed with any one model. So what now? We keep watching. That's what we do as we are basically all trackers at heart, tracking tropical weather. Some of us study it, some of us chase it and some of us do both. Some spend hours trying to figure out the models and what they are trying to show. Try watching the satellite loops, close in and then far out... go wide and see the upper level flow and where Upper Level Lows are forming or dying or shuffling about as they move in tandem with the whole atmospheric ballet. Luckily we have so many tools to watch convection in the Caribbean.


Up close. Looking good.
Even visible far away.



The problem is not the models.
The problem is how we interpret them often.

Will 91L come back?
Will NHC go with 92L
If... the convection survives.

Time will tell.....
Enjoy the show ;)

* * *

Despite what you may hear...
Invest 91L is dead.
It does not exist.
NHC shows nothing there.


I woke up late this morning and TWC was showing graphics for the Invest and discussing the rain that would fall from the Invest while the NHC site had already deactivated 91L. Which leads me to believe they are going to just call it 91L forever the way a retired Ambassador is always referred to as Ambassador. Or the segments are simply taped earlier in the morning and played without regard to what is really going on in the same way TWC couldn't go live to a real EF2 Tornado in Wilkes Barre and stayed with an old canned show about Tornado Alley. it's become an odd, sad world when a live station pretends to be live but shows canned segments pretending they are live. I watch TWC, I love the fact that there is a WEATHER channel, but I've gotten tired of seeing the same "live" segment of "how to thunderstorms form" shown every 20 or 30 minutes over a 24 hours period. I kind of like LIVE real NEWS way TWC used to be.  There will be much rain across the SE especially Texas but it is not from 91L. The tag 91L was just the "name" they used to run models for an area of bad weather that may have had potential to turn into a Tropical Depression, Tropical Storm or Hurricane. There is a difference between a tag or hashtag and a designated name. That is one reason the numbers repeat all season and we will see another 91L later in the season most likely. There will be only one Beryl in 2018. If the area to the East of the Yucatan gets tagged down the road or an area near Florida from a dying stalled out frontal boundary is being investigated it will be 92L; it could also be a westbound wave that stayed alive despite traveling west through Saharan Dust.

So what really is happening in the tropics today? Look at the wide view below and I will explain it to you. No hype, just real discussion and the honest bottom line of "keep watching" and "see what evolves" and lastly have a wonderful Happy Father's Day. Even if you are not a Father you have I am sure made a difference in some child's life so celebrate that or the memory of your father or the man in your life who made a big difference be it Uncle, Cousin or Grandfather. I know my brother has made a big difference in both my nephew's life and the lives of my children. And, I had an Uncle who I was as close to growing up in a duplex as I was to my father. Happy Father's Day. Enjoy. There are no hurricanes or tropical systems threatening this weekend.



First you will notice what looks like another batch of color off the EAST side of the Yucatan that is pretty intense this nmorning and even has more of a shape than Alberto had at it's strongest. It's a batch of strong convection in the tropics being watched along with several other features. Many models other than the GFS and EURO showed tropical development near Florida and some even showed part of what was to be tagged 91L moving up into the Eastern GOM. That is not what the NHC went with and that story line died. Luke and Laura are no longer a Super Couple on General Hospital. Duke and Anna are not going to tango onto the screen anytime soon so let's move on and deal with the reality of what is vs what might have been. I still want to see Solo even though I've heard it's a flop. Many tropical waves are nothing more than tropical waves, but if you expected them to become Killer Hurricanes they were indeed flops as far as that went. Thank God for those tropical waves that were flops and not the 1935 Labor Day Hurricane.

 The Hurricane Season is filled with tropical waves every day everywhere in all parts of the basin. The NHC is always watching them but they are covered in discussion vs the graphic map that currently shows no yellow area being watched. It is possible a new yellow area may show up soon or after Father's Day weekend depending on how compelling the wave is and how much model support there is...  No model support is the death knell for a tropical wave unless it makes landfall and gets named Tropical Storm Julia over Florida. Smiling. I can let it go it's just funny in retrospect. And it's true that the general area of tropical showers that brought us 91L is still alive and well it just did not do what the NHC expected it would do.



Loop below:


Feels like Groundhog Day doesn't it?


You will see the area to the East of the Yucatan.
It has remained more or less rooted there.
Being fed as I said the other day...
....from down below.
Moisture coming off of South America.
This will continued to be watched.

The reason "91L" did not develop?
Dry air and strong shear.
You can see that in the image below.


The East side of the Yucatan is a friendlier spot.

Many waves are being watched.
NHC Discussion.
Note mention of the GFS.


Other waves being watched.
4 to be exact.


Dabuh shows one wave.


It's very existence despite SAL is huge.

Orange is moisture.
Blue is not moisture.
Follow the moisture flow.


Despite seasonal SAL...
ITCZ is where it should be for June.
Actually looks more like July than June.
Caribbean as always in June is a hot spot.


ITCZ is alive and well.
Yes MDR may be cooler.
Waves are still there.
This drama plays out every year.

One warning here is to beware the chatter on social media of how dead the 2018 Hurricane Season will be and please ignore the discussion regarding El Nino possibly coming on mid way through the season. Please prepare in case a hurricane does develop and find it's path to your door! Ignore how the cooler water off Africa will lead to lower ACE. Ace is not a measurement of misery from a Category 5 Hurricane slamming into your town and how miserable you will be for weeks and months to come. Hurricane Andrew formed in August in a year with very low ACE and below average tropical numbers.  ACE is an academic term used to measure "energy" from Tropical Storms, Hurricanes etc. When Hurricane Andrew slammed into Homestead we were at record low realms of ACE and then we were face to face with a spinning devil that spun it's way fast across South Florida before moving on to slam into Louisiana. So much for years with low ACE. 



Watch the video below that shows the 1992 Atlantic Hurricane Season. It took several barely there systems before Andrew the first named storm developed in August. Tell someone sitting in Miami with no power for a week in late August that 1992 had been low ACE and that it was a below average season..


Note where it became a hurricane.


We don't need HOT waters off of Africa.
We need to worry about the water close in.
1935 attempt at what it would have looked like below.


Same spot. 

In the years before satellite imagery we may never have noticed Andrew until it popped up in the Bahamas the way the 1935 Labor Day Hurricane suddenly appeared out of seemingly nowhere. Do not buy into chit chat online and click bait designed to make you click onto link after link while marketers try to sell you their merchandise. The animation below is a fake animation I imagine of what the storms would have looked like had we had satellite imagery. Did you know there was a another storm on the map besides the 1935 Labor Day Hurricane? Bet not. Again it formed in waters close in not out by Africa so worry on how warm the waters off of Florida and the Carolinas and the Mid-Atlantic are rather than worrying on the temperature of the water off of Africa. No it may not be another 2017 or a year like 2005 but it will keep us busy worrying what will and what won't form and more importantly which ones have potential to actually make landfall as a Hurricane.


No one thinks on ACE when they think back to 1935 or how many other storms there were as it really only took one to change our world forever.

Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter

Ps.... I'll be home in Raleigh enjoying the day and having pulled brisket actually at an event I'm going to. I'll be on Twitter and I'll be checking Spaghetti Models often. My best friend Sharon who may or may not be reading this always says she loves to listen to Mike on Facebook Live and thinks he is a great father to those two adorable girls. I agree. Happy Father's Day. Yeah Mike and his wife took their kids on a trip up the state to see snow when it was falling near the Florida Georgia Line. What a father. Wouldn't YOU want a father like that?  I'll be back with updates as updates are necessary :)











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