Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Wednesday, July 27, 2016

UPDATED! 40% INVEST 96L Forms Near Africa. Cape Verde Wave Now Orange Circle from NHC. Are You Ready For the Hurricane Season?


Orange Circle. 
40% Chances in 5 days.


Some interesting information posted by Levi Cowan



You might want to Google: Kelvin Waves.

Could help this Invest down the road.

Note down the road in the Bahamas things could get wild.
Or it develops fast and becomes a fish storm.
Or it could simply fade away..

ft0-lalo.gif (720×480)

It's just an "Invest" not a named storm.

Far Away. 
Other end of the world.
But could be coming this way...


Some directional models ...
...and intensity models.
Hmnnn



Keep watching.


I'll be back with more discussion later.
So check back...
And read below as it all still applies

* * *


No this is not a test, this is real.
20% Yellow Circle.
It's really a 2 for 1 sort of yellow circle.
It covers a large area.
Elliptical. Like a banana.

It's name is currently:
Invest 96L


ATLANTIC INVEST ... Go figure.


Satellite imagery below:


Close up of the area shows the wicked dust monster upper left corner.
Nice structure for a July Cape Verde Wave.
Oh my goodness... 
What's that red dot behind it still over Africa.
There's more to come... 

Or as my crazy lovable friend says....


So let's talk about this Invest.
Official line from the NHC.



Nooooooo....

This is real, not a test!
And, no I have not lost my mind..

Yes SAL is still there.
It's still July.
August tho is just around the corner...

All the fence sitters are sitting around going...
"I'm not gonna fall for this..."
"Gonna bite the dust"
"Only 20%"

Well actually the dust is gonna bite into Invest 96L
(I love saying that.. Invest 96L)

Are you ready for the hurricane season?
Really? 
Cause the hurricane season may be ready for prime time.
This might be a test or a heads up but we be getting closer.


You're wondering on models?

Of course you are...
Well, it's not going East or SE or North.
Westboundish for now.


That image above is from www.hurricanecity.com

You know the drill.
West...WNW.
Develops fast (doubtful) it's a fish storm.
Hangs in there it stays low and gets further West..
And that is IF it forms....

Let's do a close up of this INVEST 96L
(love saying that..)


IF this Invest makes it.
It will be because it attaches to the energy below.
Southern part of the Invest can soak up moisture.
That anchors it a bit and fights the shear above to the North.

Then again some early models pull it NW.. 


www.spaghettimodels.com above obviously...

Spoiler Alert... Some don't pull it up into the Atlantic.

If you wonder why they jumped on this train fast...
The train is barely pulling out of the station...


Hard not to and again note the SPACING between waves behind it.
Why is this important?
It gives a chance for each wave to develop on it's own.
Some years they are so close they run into each other..
Some years...they sort of suck each other up into a messy wave.
Multiple centers competing, it gets ugly.
When you have nice, viable, individual waves like this...
You got more to work with for development.
If they can battle the various opponents. 
Shear, Dry Air, Low Water Temperatures.. 

It's not that easy to get a Hurricane Spinning.
But when they do... watch out.
Are you really ready?

I'm ready...
I'm also ready for the some football.
Cape Verde Season bleeds into NFL Football Season.


Stay tuned. I'll update today in real time as warranted. 
Especially if I need to say Invest 96L again and again ;)

Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter

Ps The Water Vapor Loop below.
Remember we watch the Water Vapor Loop because...
...it shows us where any named storm will go.
Shows us the steering currents. 
Almost as good as the various competing models.

sat_wv_east_loop-12.gif (640×512)









UPDATED! 40% INVEST 96L Forms Near Africa. Cape Verde Wave Now Orange Circle from NHC. Are You Ready For the Hurricane Season?


Orange Circle. 
40% Chances in 5 days.


Some interesting information posted by Levi Cowan



You might want to Google: Kelvin Waves.

Could help this Invest down the road.

Note down the road in the Bahamas things could get wild.
Or it develops fast and becomes a fish storm.
Or it could simply fade away..

ft0-lalo.gif (720×480)

It's just an "Invest" not a named storm.

Far Away. 
Other end of the world.
But could be coming this way...


Some directional models ...
...and intensity models.
Hmnnn



Keep watching.


I'll be back with more discussion later.
So check back...
And read below as it all still applies

* * *


No this is not a test, this is real.
20% Yellow Circle.
It's really a 2 for 1 sort of yellow circle.
It covers a large area.
Elliptical. Like a banana.

It's name is currently:
Invest 96L


ATLANTIC INVEST ... Go figure.


Satellite imagery below:


Close up of the area shows the wicked dust monster upper left corner.
Nice structure for a July Cape Verde Wave.
Oh my goodness... 
What's that red dot behind it still over Africa.
There's more to come... 

Or as my crazy lovable friend says....


So let's talk about this Invest.
Official line from the NHC.



Nooooooo....

This is real, not a test!
And, no I have not lost my mind..

Yes SAL is still there.
It's still July.
August tho is just around the corner...

All the fence sitters are sitting around going...
"I'm not gonna fall for this..."
"Gonna bite the dust"
"Only 20%"

Well actually the dust is gonna bite into Invest 96L
(I love saying that.. Invest 96L)

Are you ready for the hurricane season?
Really? 
Cause the hurricane season may be ready for prime time.
This might be a test or a heads up but we be getting closer.


You're wondering on models?

Of course you are...
Well, it's not going East or SE or North.
Westboundish for now.


That image above is from www.hurricanecity.com

You know the drill.
West...WNW.
Develops fast (doubtful) it's a fish storm.
Hangs in there it stays low and gets further West..
And that is IF it forms....

Let's do a close up of this INVEST 96L
(love saying that..)


IF this Invest makes it.
It will be because it attaches to the energy below.
Southern part of the Invest can soak up moisture.
That anchors it a bit and fights the shear above to the North.

Then again some early models pull it NW.. 


www.spaghettimodels.com above obviously...

Spoiler Alert... Some don't pull it up into the Atlantic.

If you wonder why they jumped on this train fast...
The train is barely pulling out of the station...


Hard not to and again note the SPACING between waves behind it.
Why is this important?
It gives a chance for each wave to develop on it's own.
Some years they are so close they run into each other..
Some years...they sort of suck each other up into a messy wave.
Multiple centers competing, it gets ugly.
When you have nice, viable, individual waves like this...
You got more to work with for development.
If they can battle the various opponents. 
Shear, Dry Air, Low Water Temperatures.. 

It's not that easy to get a Hurricane Spinning.
But when they do... watch out.
Are you really ready?

I'm ready...
I'm also ready for the some football.
Cape Verde Season bleeds into NFL Football Season.


Stay tuned. I'll update today in real time as warranted. 
Especially if I need to say Invest 96L again and again ;)

Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter

Ps The Water Vapor Loop below.
Remember we watch the Water Vapor Loop because...
...it shows us where any named storm will go.
Shows us the steering currents. 
Almost as good as the various competing models.

sat_wv_east_loop-12.gif (640×512)









INVEST 96L Forms Near Africa. Cape Verde Wave Given 20% Chances Are You Ready For the Hurricane Season?


Orange Circle. 
40% Chances in 5 days.


Some interesting information posted by Levi Cowan



You might want to Google: Kelvin Waves.

Could help this Invest down the road.

Note down the road in the Bahamas things could get wild.
Or it develops fast and becomes a fish storm.
Or it could simply fade away..

ft0-lalo.gif (720×480)

It's just an "Invest" not a named storm.

Far Away. 
Other end of the world.
But could be coming this way...


Some directional models ...
...and intensity models.
Hmnnn



Keep watching.


I'll be back with more discussion later.
So check back...
And read below as it all still applies

* * *


No this is not a test, this is real.
20% Yellow Circle.
It's really a 2 for 1 sort of yellow circle.
It covers a large area.
Elliptical. Like a banana.

It's name is currently:
Invest 96L


ATLANTIC INVEST ... Go figure.


Satellite imagery below:


Close up of the area shows the wicked dust monster upper left corner.
Nice structure for a July Cape Verde Wave.
Oh my goodness... 
What's that red dot behind it still over Africa.
There's more to come... 

Or as my crazy lovable friend says....


So let's talk about this Invest.
Official line from the NHC.



Nooooooo....

This is real, not a test!
And, no I have not lost my mind..

Yes SAL is still there.
It's still July.
August tho is just around the corner...

All the fence sitters are sitting around going...
"I'm not gonna fall for this..."
"Gonna bite the dust"
"Only 20%"

Well actually the dust is gonna bite into Invest 96L
(I love saying that.. Invest 96L)

Are you ready for the hurricane season?
Really? 
Cause the hurricane season may be ready for prime time.
This might be a test or a heads up but we be getting closer.


You're wondering on models?

Of course you are...
Well, it's not going East or SE or North.
Westboundish for now.


That image above is from www.hurricanecity.com

You know the drill.
West...WNW.
Develops fast (doubtful) it's a fish storm.
Hangs in there it stays low and gets further West..
And that is IF it forms....

Let's do a close up of this INVEST 96L
(love saying that..)


IF this Invest makes it.
It will be because it attaches to the energy below.
Southern part of the Invest can soak up moisture.
That anchors it a bit and fights the shear above to the North.

Then again some early models pull it NW.. 


www.spaghettimodels.com above obviously...

Spoiler Alert... Some don't pull it up into the Atlantic.

If you wonder why they jumped on this train fast...
The train is barely pulling out of the station...


Hard not to and again note the SPACING between waves behind it.
Why is this important?
It gives a chance for each wave to develop on it's own.
Some years they are so close they run into each other..
Some years...they sort of suck each other up into a messy wave.
Multiple centers competing, it gets ugly.
When you have nice, viable, individual waves like this...
You got more to work with for development.
If they can battle the various opponents. 
Shear, Dry Air, Low Water Temperatures.. 

It's not that easy to get a Hurricane Spinning.
But when they do... watch out.
Are you really ready?

I'm ready...
I'm also ready for the some football.
Cape Verde Season bleeds into NFL Football Season.


Stay tuned. I'll update today in real time as warranted. 
Especially if I need to say Invest 96L again and again ;)

Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter

Ps The Water Vapor Loop below.
Remember we watch the Water Vapor Loop because...
...it shows us where any named storm will go.
Shows us the steering currents. 
Almost as good as the various competing models.

sat_wv_east_loop-12.gif (640×512)









Tuesday, July 26, 2016

Dont Tell Me Not to Watch WV Loop - Models are Great but Let Me Enjoy the Tropics. Quiet Today, Stay tuned. GOM Moisture Fun To Watch. Earl Where Are YOU???


State of the tropics today....
Lonely, nada, nothing.
Only real moisture anywhere is in the GOM.

As Mike points out on Facebook.


Satellite Imagery of that region.

rb-animated.gif (720×480)

Nothing officially happening.
That means models have not kicked in..
No seal of approval from the A Team Models.
So we are just going to enjoy watching some color there.
We are still allowed to enjoy watching a sat loop even if...
...there is no model support.

Going to post this song here as many people are always asking ...
 "who stopped the hurricanes" :)


The answer in July is simple.
SAL stole the rain.
And SAL reigns in July.
August it usually ebbs a bit.
Remember September... 
Most years anyway.


The answer is blowing in the wind.
A dusty, red Saharan dusty wind moving west across the ocean.


(love them but they sound depressing...)

Subtle changes are noticeable.


Slow changes over time.
For now SAL is zapping the basin of tropical moisture.
One tropical wave at a time.
But at the same time....
... those waves wet up the atmosphere some.

SAL wins the battles... 
...but not the war.

At times I miss the old days.
Often times I miss the old days.
Know why?
They were fun... 
We have become jaded and cynical.
Batting away the B models for the A models.
Dumping on the GFS model even tho..
..it's performing well in the Epac.
Waiting desperately for the EURO to show some action.
We used to ENJOY tropical meteorology.
Now days we get lost in details.
We rush to see if someone posted a video..
..or a put up some fancy new way better model graphics.
We are playing like it's a reality TV show.
Like we want a new, better toy.
And of course we do.. 
But...

It used to be FUN...
We studied details and historical data.
We collected bits and pieces of data.
Scraps of paper with numbers hastily scribbled.

10.1 N 32.5 W
35 MPH
W-18
29.53

I wonder how many understand those numbers above?

We had hurricane maps.
Maps from the grocery store, the hardware store.
Maps from the TV stations.


Maps and mugs.
Tee shirts.

Now we have who can tweet a link to the EURO.

It's become less personal.
Still obsessive. 
But a bit boring.
Oh my gosh I said "BORING"
I called the great, exciting models...
BORING.

Yes I love them. 
I'm like a drunk during prohibition in search of a speak easy.
But still I want to enjoy watching the water vapor loop..
Without some Grinch batting a wave away saying 
"It has NO model support"

Duh.. 
Obviously NOT Red Sox fans.
Must be Jets fans.
Sorry but true they leave the stadium at half time..
Love u guys.. 
Was a HUGE Joe Namath fan as a little girl..
But Red Sox fans stayed true blue season after season.
They stand up and sing Sweet Caroline even if..
..their team is losing.


So do NOT tell me not to enjoy a fricking water vapor loop..
...cause nothing has any model support.
This isn't a video game.
It's real life.
Life happens.
Touching me ... 
...touching you.

And Come September...
Don't complain if Mother Nature places a Hurricane..
..where there's an ULL in the Florida Straits right now.
Moving West into the very warm Gulf of Mexico.
Spoiler Alert..
In September Epac interference slows down.
SAL loses it's grip. 

And we have hurricanes.
Hurricanes happen.

When I was young I believed in every little westbound wave.
I learned CLIMO wins almost always.
You can bet the farm on it.

I was taught by great meteorologists.


But trust me they peak at the water vapor loop.
They obsess on every satellite loop even when...
..there is no model support.
They play games.
They throw darts at the screen (rubber ones)
They do anything they can to stay not bored.
Trust me......

So don't tell me not to enjoy a water vapor loop..
..because "the models don't show anything"


sat_ir_enh_east_loop-12.gif (640×512)

Sometimes I even watch the Enhanced IR Loop ;)

Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter

Ps... keep watching...

An upbeat song for Earl.. 
Mambo #5
Tropical Depression #5 ??


(note the lyrics with Rita...)

PPS.. Yes Fishing I posted a clip from Farrelly Brothers.
I remember...when they used to be fun!
Hope ur drinkin coffee :P
(really who reads the blog in boring July??)