Winter is Back! Mother Nature Back from Her Caribbean Cruise and Maybe Snow Shows Up! IF Not.... It'll Still Be Cold!

 

From Mike's Weather Page .....

...we can see.

Winter is back in style.

Ok Texas and parts of Oklahoma not participating yet.

But word on the street is...

Mother Nature is back from her Caribbean cruise...

...and she's back for winter misery.

There's even a chance of snow in the South.
Yes.....I said "chance"

Don't bet the farm.

Southern mountains maybe....

I've looked through various satellite loops, models and multiple discussions on the MJO and personally I want to see for myself where this goes as this year models have disappointed often. So taking it a day at a time and seeing if hopeful forecasts verify or not. Do models continue to show a chance or rip them away? 

Stay tuned.

Life is like that you know.....

Sometimes you gotta go with the flow.........

See where things go.

IF this week's model projections verify then.....I'll get some popcorn out settle in for some deep modeling and possible winter weather.

Baltimore shows snow.

Mixed types of precipitation.

I checked Richmond VA nothing.

Raleigh NC nothing.

So just keep watching.

Mind you we do have temperatures again!

Just we be lacking on moisture.

Need moisture to get snow...

...ya know!!

That's it. Laying low today and catching my breath after a crazy Sunday and wishing everyone peace, love, happiness and good hugs...... if you don't have anyone to give you a good hug well... hope you have a warm happy blanket. I know I do. It has satin and velvet and some tassels and on very cold winter nights I put it on the bed and smile.

Sweetest Dreams,

BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on X

X mostly weather   

elsewhere whatever

Tornado Warning - Fog and January Thaw Acting Like Spring. Don't Be Deceived....

 

Note the little red dots in the green.

Tornado Warnings in the South.

And flood threat though tonight.

Fog  blankets part of the South this morning.

As weather people pass long range models about online for any possibility of Winter Weather, Spring is trying to sneak in under the radar. That's not really happening, but you could easily think it is if you live in this part of the South. It's supposed to be 75 on Saturday in Raleigh and my closet is overflowing with shoes from different seasons. The little silver sandals sit next to the brown suede boots. 

Last half of January forecast to be seasonable cold and stormy. That said, until I see proof of it I'm taking this day by day.

In order news the Hurricanes won last night.

Hurricane flanges were flying...

Very cool!

Wonderful to see..... 

...maybe one day the Fins will be back too!

So have a good weekend.

Dress accordingly.

This is Winter.

Just feels like Spring.

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on X

Mitch & Models Waiting on Winter!

 

Watching Mitch talk models...

....why do I do that?

#1 he's good at it, he loves it.

#2 it's a bit like watching a slow motion train wreck.

Not my cup of coffee first thing in the morning.

1 model run.......

(it's the EURO)

....shows snow possibly.

or Ice!

Maybe.

Far out down the icy road....

Further down the icy road on the GFS

It's as if the algorithm knows which areas are the most winter weather deprived and throws them a bone on the 10th of 11th day knowing we are hooked and going to come back for more. I don't think that's an overly paranoid thought. Also if CLIMO is KING then IF it's gonna happen it'll happen deeper into January. 

What's the problem here?

Lack of cold air....

....not much of a snow pack to our North.

Our = Carolinas.

I'll be honest with you. For me, at this point in January where I am debating wearing sketchers or sandals today, talking on snow chances down the road is like debating on watching the Miami Dolphins play their last game knowing the "shit show" goes on though there's some promising players to watch and this long run on sentence is how this Winter has felt so far in Raleigh. We did have some snow early on and I am very thankful, that buoys me up a bit thinking we will get more. But I didn't watch the Miami Dolphins this past Sunday til the very end thinking by some miracle every team will lose or get the flu and the Fins will get into the playoffs. There are no illusions here.....

I do think we will have snow again in Raleigh this winter. When or how much I can't say, but the main problem currently is that the COLD is NOT in place.  When you get a feed, a fetch of weather coming at you in January and you are hoping for snow it sure does help to have the snow pack in place to your immediate North somewhere to get snow when the Southern Stream of the Jet hooks up with plunging fronts. 

Snow needs cold air (below 32 degrees preferably)

Snow needs moisture. 

We have been crazy dry in these parts. Dry and warm though we have cool nights. It's not a horrible recipe for Winter which I'd take anytime over a hot Carolina Summer.... but.....the ingredients need to at least be in the pantry or on the counter before I start counting my snowflakes.

Jim is on TWC moving his beautiful hands around out in the Pacific, showing how the system is moving in and how another disturbance is behind it. The sound was on mute but he began making faces and I figured I should turn the sound up. Yeah, some snow is coming through but not anywhere near it should be for this time of year. But hey.... it will be snowing by the resorts and its gonna be a great ski weekend!

This is how I am coping with the Winter of 2025 and 2026 and I'll add December of 2025 was way kinder winter weather wise to us than the January 2026 part of it. I just can't run the models. I watch the X feed. I watch the satellite imagery. It's just not happening in the short to midterm time frame. But, I do listen to Mitch and a few others on YouTube as YT is more entertaining these days than most other venues and I can find anything I want. 

It's not Hurricane Season.

Football Season is fading away.

There are hearts and candy in the Dollar Store as we are moving on til Valentines Day. And, it doesn't make me feel better when many of the long range models people on X begin to say "hey in Februray tho" because I am not holding my breath til February on January 7th. Nope. I'm wearing sandals.

Have a good day.

Enjoy the video below. If you are going to listen to model discussion Mitch is good to listen to...

Remember though he doesn't promise he says "could" happen and I can live with that as it definitely "could" happen  as the cold dives down, but not betting the farm.

Have a great Wednesday. I am not even going to proof read this again as deciding between Sketchers or Sandals plumb tuckered out my snow deprived brain and I need a real Starbucks! 

Chow for now..

BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on X

Ps ...............Thanks for coming to my particular harbor....

Polar Vortex MIA in OKC & Denver .... Raleigh Snowless. Maybe Mother Nature Hiding on a Beach in Key West? Left Polar Vortex on Automatic Mode??? El Nino Pushed Back to Summer???

The Polar Vortex ain't dipping this week much.

Rest of us are wearing boots at night...

...sandals during the day.

So what is up weather wise today?

Lots of Weather Trivia online.

Musing on Melissa's strongest winds....

...and waiting on El Nino.

Remember when we were waiting for the MJO?

Yah... nodding.

Now waiting on forecast EL NINO

In the mean time... in between time...

 

Apparently the sky tu'rned pink in Iowa...

AccuWeather Splains on X.

Welcome to January 2026! Today the social media world seems filled with Weather Trivia as there is not much going on in most parts of the USA, especially the Hurricane Coastline. Today is a cooler day in Raleigh, the high is forecast to be 56 degrees which means it won't hit 60 degrees! Well, if the forecast verifies. Good, I prefer cooler days rather than the nonstop see saw of the Polar Vortex which currently is way up where it belongs,  before it dips down again later in the month. I was never very into playing See Saw as a child. It gets boring fast. I taught Kindergarten once and I can promise you it's the toy least used on the playground. UP, down, Up, down, Up, down and off they go to the Merry Go Round or the Swings.

This is not really breaking news to OKC...

...their basketball team is called Thunder...

But Tampa Bay folks would argue ....

Speaking of Tampa Bay...

..Mike is on a cruise ... 

My daughter was on a cruise also.

My son was on a cruise also.

My brother was on a cruise.

All different cruise ships

There sure are many to choose from...

To be fair.........

...there's much El Nino vs La Nina talk.

But I want snow!

I'm having a fairly boring Winter.

Despite all the Polar Vortex is back talk!

Okay I do like the cooler temps.

I do love the sunset thru ....

....the bare branches of the Oak Tree.

So not complaining too much...

I want snow.

 

More El Nino discussion....

..Come Summer Now.

Very relevant to the 2026 hurricane season.

It would imply a quieter season.

Quiet is in the eye of the beholder!!

Andrew was coming off an El Nino year!

You get the idea.

When there's no Snow.

No Winter Storms or Super Storms.

Weather people talk on 2 topics.

El Nino/La Nina

Melissa.

Oh and YouTube Promises a Weather Change.

Maybe Snow... Diving Arctic Air!!

"PATTERN CHANGE COMING"

Yet we are stuck on the See Saw of ...

...the whims and fantasies of...

the Polar Vortex.

My week ahead. Not bad.

No real "WEATHER" just mild days...

colder nights!

Suddenly I feel much cooler.

Systems often move East from OKC

to my neck of the woods.

No snow moving East this week.....

Let's look at Denver.

They have a chance of snow on Thursday.

Oh my goodness.

Oh my gosh.

Oh my Winter where did you go?

So many promises made....

.

And that brings us to the last point.

Online promises of late January winter weather.

If not January 22nd when? (in RDU world)

and oh Lord...

some are pushing promises back to ...

"But February!!!"

So yeah I have been a little quiet.

Watching weather.

Watching news.

Trying to get stuff done while it's quiet....

...eventually there will be Winter.

Colorado will get more snow.

OKC will get snow.

Raleigh will (I Pray) get snow.

Have a great day.

Monday Morning.

First Monday of 2026.

Fast paced year.

Oh Earthquakes are shaking!

(Geology is such a good diversion)

... Mother Nature's hiding on winter vacation.

Maybe she's in Key West ....

wearing a hat and sunglasses...

...cute little bar.

A pink drink with an umbrella

A beach view.

She's definitely hiding somewhere....

Enjoy the video.

Spent many a morning there watching sunrise...

...watching the tourist.

Down the road from my family's old home...

or Tom's house where I'd stay usually.

Send help!!!

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on X

Maybe I should take a vacation.

Myrtle Beach? Maybe....

 

End of December Mild for Many... January Opens the Door to 2026 and Wintry Weather......Eventually...

 

There's a large system in the North Atlantic swirling about. It's influence is fairly huge and it conflicts at times with impulses riding up creating ripples of storms that may or may not bring winter weather depending how far North you are or are not. On the bottom left of this loop is another swirl, swirling about and adding moisture in some places and some places not. Towards the North there is a line of weather moving along near the US - Canadian Border from the West to the East. For now it's keeping Winter way up where many feel it belongs!!  Colorado, Oklahoma and Texas are dealing with the heat; warmer than normal temperatures East of the Rocky Mountains people may need sunscreen. It won't last forever and looking back in late January you'll remember late December fondly. Enjoy this quiet mellow late December, as January will open the door to wild, wicked weather that is likely to dig deep into February.

It is what it is until it is not. That is my message for the day. As I said yesterday it's an up and down pattern and either you're cold or your hot. Plan your events accordingly.

Long range models and synoptic patterns say Winter is waiting in the wings. Generally my money is on CLIMO.

For anyone traveling to NYC for New Year's Eve it seems snow is a possibility to ring in the New Year.

More tomorrow........

Wishing you your favorite weather as long as it doesn't collide with my wishes :)

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on X

Polar Vortex Moving UP and down and UP and down. Cold, Warm, Cold, Warm... Winter 2026 Will Be Like a Carousel. Merry Go Round. Temps Dip Down, Then Up Then DOWN Again!

 

Note the tail of the fronts.

Or is it the tale of the fronts?

The graphic below offers a weather buffet.

Everyone wants a quick fix or a real answer regarding Winter 2025/2026 and the answer seriously is "maybe" as in.....in any given week you may get a Winter Storm. I could be wrong. Everything is in motion. You may get mild weather. 

When the Polar Vortex is in play it means that it is literally moving around the Northern Hemisphere (in our case) going up and down like a carousel at a carnival. First it dips down, then it rises back up, then it dips down again and on and on it goes doing this up and down dance. When it is in the up position areas "way Up North" get snow and areas in the middle latitudes get milder, warmer weather and then when the dip comes around again everyone freaks because it was in the 60s and now it's dropping back into the 20s and 30s again. Your weather APP may show snow flakes, then no snowflakes then they are back again! 

If you live in Wisconsin or Minnesota or Upstate NY in the Hudson Valley you can expect Winter to be firmly entrenched, delivering  you winter weather frequently this winter. If you live in the in between areas such as Oklahoma and North Carolina you have to wait and see what evolves. When the Polar Vortex dips down will there be dry weather or wet weather and the possibility of snow and ice. If you live in the mountains of Colorado you will get snow. If you live in the suburbs around Denver it may be warm until it's cold again.  If you live in South Florida it will be warm days and cooler nights. If you live in Jax or Tallahassee you may get very cold nights in the 20s and 30s this coming week with temps dipping into the 20s especially up near Quincy.   

There are no big surprises here as much as the see saw motion of the weather patterns and that adds in to people getting sick as one day it's very cold and the next you can wear sandals and then a big damp system comes in with strong winds and you didn't pay attention and aren't dressed for the weather.

Pay attention. The cold is the real deal, the random warm days are an illusion and winter is not going into hiding this year it's just a bit moody and capricious. The little video below is a carousel with horses, but picture the polar vortex moving around the planet dipping down, moving back up and dipping down again!

There is no reason for panic.

When it's freezing people will freak

When its mild and warm people will freak!

Stay calm.

Enjoy the ride.

You can see the dip now near Minnesota.

The feed of moisture in the lower left ...

...feeding into this new dipping system.

How they connect exactly....

That tells the whole tale. 

See how much is going on?

Air moving down in the NW Pacific.

Air feeding up from the EPAC

fronts sliding across the country.

The real show is the  next one....

Rumor has it later in January...

...maybe we get a Winter Storm.

(in the Carolinas....)

Time will tell.

Go with the flow...

Order a hot latte when it's cold.

Enjoy a frappe when its warm.

Life goes on....

....so does Winter!

Sweet whatever dreams you want...

BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on X

Ps.........never heard this song before

but.....it fits so going with it!

Everything old is new again....

.... probably the theme weather wise of 2026

Country song below it ...cause you know me.

I'm Country......

Winter Storm Warning for Parts of the East Coast.... Warm Weather Everywhere Else. But That's Changing Soon. May Have Been a Warm Christmas BUT New Years Eve Will Be Cold in Some Places Even Florida! Death of a Giant... Neil Frank Dies at Age 94.

Bookend Winter Storms.

West Coast....

NYC Metro, NJ, NE

Upstate New York!

Everywhere in between....

...asking what happened to Winter?

Note it will return soon.

Warm Christmas.

Cold New Years Eve!

In my world 2026 brings back Winter.

60s are gone.

70s are gone!

Even in Florida!

As I said in the previous post Mother Nature is quite the Trickster this year with a roller coaster ride through Winter where you'll keep both your flip flops and your winter boots ready for whatever the forecast throws at you.

In Monsey NY my daughter is preparing for a Winter Storm that may or may not be blizzard like and may or may not dump tons of snow or miss them to the North or South. It's a difficult system to predict down to the detail but there are maps everywhere and arguments online as to whether it'll go wide right or wide left.  To be fair it's a place where snow easily finds you. But fast moving systems such as this throw wrinkles into the forecast always!

So watch your local experts, best Weather Apps and if you are into TWC or Fox Weather or Weather Nation settle down with a cup of Hot Cocoa and enjoy the show.  Here it's gray, cool and warm enough to have some windows open to air out the house yet cold enough to keep them barely open. I do so love fresh air!

In other weather news...... I've been way overdue to post this sad news. Dr. Neil Frank died at age 94!

Link to this image above below.

The man from Kansas.....

....became the Hurricane Expert.

Hurricane Preparation especially!!

I kind of put off talking on this as to be honest time flies and once upon the time he was a Director of the National Hurricane Center and though it was way back, there probably was not a more Iconic Director than Neil Frank. I had a best friend who moved to Miami from Upstate New York and she had the biggest crush on Neil Frank; more like King of the Weather people until he moved to Houston and she found Bryan Norcross. Neil Frank blew into Miami as if he was a real hurricane, a storm with a plan to make sure Floridians living within shouting distance of the beach were aware and prepared and knowledgeable about the dangers of Hurricanes. People were moving to Miami, buying waterfront property on cities newly built around layers of canals that all had "waterfront lots" on both sides of the coast and the agents that sold them the lots told them not to worry on Hurricanes. Something about the Coral Reef offshore protects us from hurricanes they were told.  So in the off season he would often go to some of these waterfront paradises and pretend to be taking surveys and ask the owners if they knew how to prepare for a hurricane. They were sure they told him hurricanes would not be a problem. Truth is sometimes it takes a while to get hit by a Hurricane as Tampa, Miami and Marco Island know but when they do there's no turning back the clock to before the hurricane and everything is changed forever. The mere word "Cone" sets people off to Public in search of water, batteries and of course beer!

That's Marco Island under construction.

I do mean under construction literally.

It was built over wetlands .... swamp.

Close up

Everyone has water nearby :)

And lots of swamp land.

And the beautiful Gulf.

Very in Hurricane Country!

Neil Frank left the NHC for Houston in 1987

5 years later when Hurricane Andrew formed....

...his fans in Miami jumped into action!

They'd been taught the dangers!

Really few like him.

I'd add in Dr. William Gray from CSU!

For these giants in the Hurricane world it wasn't about politics or click bait or anything other than to educate about the public on the dangers of hurricanes and the science of hurricane forecasting. Both strong willed, both opinionated but both were all about weather. My brother actually was given some old Hurricane Tracking Charts from the NHC after meeting him while visiting the site. My brother and my friend Sharon could wax poetic on this giant of a man that was a legend in his time.

Neil Frank is synonymous with Hurricanes, now and forever!

So are we ready for 2026? Heard a rumor Senor El Nino is very ready.... 

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on X    Mostly weather on X, elsewhere whatever....

We may have missed Neil Frank in Miami, but he was all too ready to sing Hello Texas!