A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!
Thursday, April 20, 2017
TS Arlene - Surprised or No Surprised Formed Today Early in April.
Note I said earlier this morning I wouldn't be surprised.
I'm sort of surprised anyone is surprised.
Truth is the fuel was there (warm water)
The center was definable.
Models were iffy and disagreed.
I figured a girl's got to do what a girl's got to do...
Honestly from a meteorological point of view not surprising.
But the NHC Discussion seemed surprised.
Rather than decreasing in intensity...
(as per earlier discussion)
Arlene developed with 45 MPH winds today.
Discussion below states their surprise..
See yesterday discussion when it was still Subtropical.
The point is ...
Things happen fast in the tropics sometimes.
Remember that later on in the season.
Nice tight little storm.
Found it's sweet spot.
Nice wardrobe .. lots of convection.
Then sailing away into history.
Losing the reds tonight.
Arlene might just be a footnote in the 2017 Season.
Weather is awesome.
Might have an interesting PS to this named storm.
Suggestive discussion in the wind.
Long day by me. Went to see my father-in-law who is frail, but still kicking. Spent time with some family members than went to the beach with a best friend who lost his mother last month. Surf was whipped up quite nice at Dania Beach and down by Hollywood Beach. Cool air, warmish water and a steady breeze. Walked around the nature center in Dania. Sipped a Pina Colada on Hollywood Boardwalk. Talked. Trying to enjoy every minute. Life is short, politics is crazy, the news is nuts and often people are nuttier. You got to savor the moment. And I did. Sorry for the late update...
Just a brief post to say Subtropical Depression is still a subtropical depression and NOT expected to get the A list name. Though if this year is anything like last year expect the unexpected.
Perhaps this year's crop of storms will behave and read their forecast discussion. They will die when the NHC says they should die, form only over water and do the loop when it's forecast rather than take NC by storm.
Officially this is Pre Season and just a dress rehearsal...
I'll do a longer post later today.
I have an ill father in law who seems to be in goodbye mode but life like storms sometimes surprises us. Posting from my phone while in the hospital or skilled nursing facility whatever it's called so not doing loops or songs just right now.
As Jimmy Buffett sings "Only Time Will Tell" and I'm just wondering if it's 5 o clock somewhere... Where's my Margarita? Cause I could sure use one.
June 1st officially the start of the season.
Always a ho hum list if you ask me. They should spice it up some.
You get my drift. Time for a change. Why do we have to get stuck with a list until one is retired? Seems a bit OCD if you ask me...
Will Arlene Form From Invest 91L? NHC Gives it High Chances.
35 MPH winds.
Doesn't need much for an upgrade.
We went from yellow to red fast.
Following the trend...
...looks like development.
It also looks like it may stick around a bit.
I'm going to write a longer post today with my thoughts, let's call them conservative thoughts, as this may get a name but it's most likely going to sit and spin until it gets picked up and sent somewhere. This is an interesting, but not rare situation. Actually a typical situation for the name Arlene. Understand the image below is the National Hurricane Center's FIVE DAY ... it looks like a red cookie more than a five day track for anything. The visible loop is impressive and definitely impressed people enough to upgrade it to red letter status.
Impressing the powers that be at the NHC.
It has been upgraded from yellow to red...
I think you need to keep that in mind.
Everyone loves to hype these systems, and they like to make wild predictions based upon early Atlantic development in April. Do not fall for any of the discussions as to what this means as it simply means something currently is developing in the Atlantic. Even discussion from the NHC is a bit hard to follow. The next discussion is at 2 PM with 70 % chances - - - unless it is upgraded before 2 PM. Proceed accordingly...
Please check often with the NHC to see if they have changed their mind...
We may realistically have Sub Tropical Storm Arlene in the Atlantic soon. IF NOT... Arlene will show up sooner rather than later this particular year.
Also worth noting a lot of moisture in the Caribbean. Just a random thought but worth noting. And the flow; watch which way the flow is flowing as always. As systems collide is what I call the loop below.
Today is Easter Sunday and Passover for many people reading this so going to talk a bit about the seasons and holidays. The weather is in general okay, however you still need to be on guard in some parts of the country for severe weather to blow up as we are headed into record warm temperatures in many areas. Nothing like the Tornado outbreak in 2000, but somewhere it might rain on your Easter Parade.
This post today is about the seasons on parade. The march of time, of humanity, of Uncle George and Great Aunt Samantha and possibly your second cousin once removed Melinda who shows up at your family dinner totally wasted talking on Wicca and you wonder "oh my gosh where are her pills??" Someone told me once they had an Aunt who thought she was a lighthouse and occasionally climbed onto the roof and stood there trying to ward off ships from the reefs. That was sweet of her, but they lived in Nebraska so.... well....yeah we have all been there. You fall asleep in Church or at the family Passover Seder. Awkward.. But life does go on even if you have to change churches or find a different family to go to next year for the seder..
Sometimes it's an experience you remember forever...
Whatever holiday you are celebrating or not ... enjoy the day, enjoy the seasons, enjoy your family or friends or quiet time. Perhaps you have dogs or cats or a fish. Maybe you have a fake fish.... whatever rocks your boat. Pray for what you want, desire, need and remember to breathe. To everyone there is a season and I sincerely pray you are enjoying yours.
For some people the holidays feel like this song above...........
Seasons come and go like the holidays. Each holiday is layered upon another holiday memory that adds up in our brain like some colliding collage of good times and bad times. Happy holiday meals and quiet conversation and times when that strange lady who married into the family spoils the fun or Uncle Gary wakes up at the table and starts trying to relive some wild battle from World War 2 and there are times we pray there is no World War 3 around the corner.
The seasons turn... time turns.... weather seasons turn from one to another. Winter, Spring, Summer... then comes Hurricane Season.
Old timers remember a time when people put on their Easter Bonnet and took to going to parade their clothes like it was a fashion show for Coachella now days.
Times change and yet climate doesn't really. Yes, we move from Ice Age to Warming and one thing can throw it possibly out of balance (meteor, nuclear war, invasion of the body snatchers maybe) but we roll with the punches. You raise the house up if you think the street will flood. You move inland. You build a bunker, you make love, you sip coffee and try not to put the news on....
You hide from Crazy Old Aunt Mary who wants to lecture you on life and you pretend Peter Rabbit is not hiding in the bushes with a basket of Easter Eggs that are some sort of practical joke. You lay low or you put on your Easter Bonnet and stride through the park while looking for portals while playing Ingress or looking for a Geocache somewhere in a forested dell. Or you pray like crazy in Church for the people out playing Ingress on Easter Sunday.
On Miami Beach in 1927 people gathered together to pray to have a good year, to rebuild the structure of life after the 1926 Hurricane the September before. They went on.... they prayed for a new future stronger than the past one that was blown away and they started over. As a good friend likes to say pragmatically "life goes on" and perhaps in a way Easter Sunday is part of that process. Life goes on, the trees come to life and they rededicate their lives to God, to their family and to their future. It's about looking back and looking forward.
Life goes on and on and on (well we pray it does) and there is always that chance, that dream of tomorrow being better than today. Of grabbing the brass ring or catching the girl you always loved or finding the perfect man or the perfect wave (not the first wave ever ...) and being blessed with an incredible sunrise on Easter Sunday for many is like winning the spiritual lottery.
In Europe after World War 2 people got together and made a Passover Seder. It's human nature to go on, pick up the pieces and move on or rebuild. To bless the new season, new growth, young love and to watch the waves breaking onto the beach as the golden sun slowly rises from it's night time Neptunian Mists hidden away while we sleep .....waiting to wake up and start again at sunrise.
Passover is about freedom....
After freedom there is a measure of freedom trust me. We go back to life as it was .... or perhaps as we wish to paint the future. How do you want to paint your future and who do you want in that future and do you want mountains or beaches or both?
@bobbistorm on twitter... I'd say follow me but I'm in hiding mode right now ;)
Ps.... Dear Stephen I'm sure that Barbara is out there somewhere in an Easter Bonnet!
Dry Season VS Wet Season. Monsoons Then Hurricanes? Flow of Time... Time Keeps Flowing.
Random thoughts on random weather events and the coming Hurricane Season. In truth the "Hurricane Season" is a collection of events that really begin with the "May Monsoons" in South Florida. The set up of the Bermuda High and the movement of pools of moisture that pop up and appear out of seemingly nowhere in the Gulf of Mexico and the Atlantic. There are bigger long term factors at play here, however they do not appear on daily satellite imagery nor do they catch our attention.
But we go online suddenly and see color appearing in the Gulf of Mexico and near the Bahamas. Down near South America a blob of red readies itself to depart into the Eastern Pacific. People in South Florida begin whining about the lack of rain and drought and fires burn out of control in parts of Florida in need of moisture. Normally... Mother Nature hears the cries for rain and sends a drought buster with heavy, flooding rain in Mid May. Usually when the system works. Currently the High is anchored over Florida and the dry Southeast US and there is a weak, anchored Bahama Low that will in theory go out to sea. Welcome to 2017 a year that has yet to be reckoned with tropically speaking.
A lot of moisture and "energy" is caught in that Low.
Official comments from the NHC are below:
You know that old saying....
It's just part and parcel of the flow of this time of year.
Spring in Florida means they are playing baseball, but not football. The Spring Breakers have arrived, but snow birds have not left yet. Weather poets wax poetically on ocean currents, salinity and patterns in the atmosphere predicting a quieter than normal season while Mother Nature laughs and plans a drought buster somewhere that will wake everyone up.
People celebrate Passover or Easter as holidays that arrive at the seasonal mark awaken us to the spirituality of nature unfolding in not so subtle ways before our eyes. People pack their winter clothes away in parts of the country and in South Florida they go on partying enjoying the mild weather before the humidity that brings consistent rain back into the region. Snow is up where it belongs to misquote an old sappy song.
It's a process, it happens slowly over time.
And then one day there's an Invest.
An advisory issued on a weak tropical disturbance.
Seems everyone wants to blame weather for everything these days. Originally, before they admitted they overbooked, airlines blamed the weather for travel delays this past week. The problem is that in today's world anyone can go online and see there is no bad weather delaying flights rather poor practices used to move their crew around. Really everyone blames the weather often but often it's just poor planning, preparation and even worse real time decisions that had nothing to do with weather.
As there's no bad weather today to talk about....
..Only a Storm of bad press over United Airlines.
And in general problems flying these days.
Delays, lies and over booking problems.
So going to discuss the Blame Game.
When there is weather...
..we will talk about the weather.
I'm sure you have your own stories here to add..
Once my son was on a direct flight from FLL to RDU on Southwest. They announced upon landing that there had been a problem with some of the luggage and it may have missed the flight and to please check in at the luggage department to see where your luggage is...... Seems only a few bags made the flight. Many people, not my son, were coming from Cruise Ships and were told to pack all their electronics and it would go from the ship to the plane as per their own arrangements. So you basically had 300 passengers upset they were stuck in Raleigh without their luggage and without their computers to go online and make other arrangements. Understand this was before smart phones were so smart and you needed your computer to contact people for business and personal arrangements beyond texting, sexting or sending photos ...oh and talking, of course.
Something smelled funny to me and no it was not melting frozen meat in someone's suitcase it was the words Southwest used to explain their problem. They insisted it wasn't "THEIR FAULT" but "Homeland Security" as their equipment was malfunctioning. There was nothing SW could do but to hand load the luggage and go through it themselves and there wasn't enough time. We gave them our address and they promised to send it by messenger to our house when they ... "could locate it" which also seems odd in today's world or even yesterday's world. If my young, teenage daughter left Barnes and Noble with her best friend, my son who paid for her phone, could see where she was going and that she had left the store and was not on her way home. But...that said Southwest could not locate my son's luggage.
Long story short I decided to use contacts I have as I have worked as a reporter and found out that SOUTHWEST had problems with their machinery and AFTER the luggage was checked properly by Homeland Security the belt broke transporting the luggage to the plane to be loaded on and they decided to put it on the next flight of the night. And, they blamed it on Homeland Security which at that time it sounded logical enough.......
The Blame Game. Note SW is usually way nicer dealing with customers than the once friendly skies of United and all in all they are usually better to deal with but again they all play the blame game. Days after bad weather rather than say they they over booked or under booked a flight and they want to use your airplane for another flight when another airplane was unable to fly but was a fully loaded flight they pull you off and lie to you that "your plane" is going to be delayed when in fact "YOUR PLANE" is on the way to Nashville from Baltimore to fly a route with more passengers who need to get where they are going. And they lie to you endlessly in Baltimore about "your plane" being "repaired" when it is in fact "THE PLANE IS IN THE AIR SOMEWHERE ELSE" and I know this because it happened to me.
There I was trying to get from Seattle to Raleigh and as I was sick and had a badly bruised shoulder I booked a flight through Baltimore with ONE STOP only for passengers to disembark before the plane would go on to Raleigh. No trying to walk about with carry on luggage with a bad shoulder and an easy flight home. After 3 hours stuck in Baltimore (second time this happened to me) some nice, handsome older gentleman sat down next to me to eat his dinner and we talked. He was a pilot, he told me to run over to where a plane was leaving for Raleigh and ask to be put onto that flight. He said there was no problem with my plane, it only had a few passengers and they needed it to replace another plane and I'd get home sooner doing that than waiting for them to find me a seat. I ran from Terminal A to B or whatever and even though they had already boarded they agreed to put me on as there was a seat available (really no one wants to go to Raleigh) and in less than an hour I was home. Exhausted and hoping my luggage would show up. It did. Oh and my son's luggage went to Chicago, spent the night and then was sent back the next day on a flight from Chicago to Raleigh.
The point is they blamed it on everything but the just saying "this is how we do things" and most often they blame it on the weather. The last trip I took back from NY I had some problem and they insisted to ME it was because of bad weather in the Mid West... NOT SW maybe JetBlue I don't remember but to tell me... BobbiStorm there was wicked weather somewhere earlier in the day (rather than the truth) when I can go online and see there was no wicked weather anywhere that day.
We live in a world of instant news, reported on Twitter seconds after it happens with video being posted only as fast as it can upload itself.
I know you may have seen it EVERY WHERE but the reality is.........everyone on the plane rushed to take video. Were they so clueless or just doing their job? Guess it's a good thing they didn't decide to make everyone get off the plane and stop videotaping or doing Facebook Live or whatever.
In today's world people do not like excuses when they can find out the truth themselves.
And this does relate to weather. People want honest, good information they don't want double speak to explain why a strong tropical storm is going hurricane strength but wasn't upgraded or explanations of how if formed "over land" when they did not want to upgrade it prior to landfall.
People have had it. They want the truth. They want information now... and they share information. We have been doing that in the weather community for years, yet only now has this begun to happen in the mainstream world.
Now the regular, average Jo can go online in seconds and Facebook Live as three huge security men drag a 69 year old man through an itsy bitsy, narrow aisle you can barely walk down yet alone be dragged down and then we can watch how everyone spins it online.
Almost every person in this video is videoing the incident.
Yeah fly the friendly skies indeed.
One reason many people hate flying these days.
It used to be about fear of flying (really flying not sex)
Fear of crashing.
Now it's about security concerns.
Having to go through security.
Getting stuck in Baltimore.
Having your luggage get lost.
People these days hate to fly.
How long will it be before some new start up..
... makes an Air B&B in the air.
Millenial Air perhaps........
Because the young generation reads reviews.
They write reviews.
They share videos.
They share information.
That's why You go online to track a hurricane even though the NHC puts out an advisory. After being burned several times you have decided to take control, download an App, follow Mike or Jim or whoever for information to best prepare them to deal with a possible hurricane. People in North Carolina were told that Matthew was going to loop away from the coast and head back to Florida and North Carolina was trashed. Many people in those towns will be online this coming year looking for their own information because they don't trust anyone anymore. They got slammed with hurricane force winds, conditions, flooding and there were no Hurricane Warnings posted and they were not in the "cone" two days out.
Why is there such a lack of trust? Because everyone tries to be politically correct and/or they play the blame game. They tell passengers they are delayed due to ongoing weather problems and US radar shows not a storm in the sky anywhere that day. What should be a great day to fly becomes a nightmare because the luggage equipment broke down or a plane somewhere needed to be replaced or a flight crew needs your paid for seat because they need to get to Detroit more than you do.
It's a new world we live in..........
And in a few months it will be the Hurricane Season of 2017. Someone I know and respect says the current set up is much like 1963. It was a semi busy season with few landfalls, but many close scares. It will be a while before we know just what 2017 will be.
But one thing I know for sure is people want truth in advisories, in warnings and information. They want the truth from the Airlines and hotels, motels or they will go to Air B&B because that's the world we live in these days. The world is changing. How have you changed how you do things? Rent a room in a Days Inn or a Quality INN or spend the same money for a cute townhouse with all the amenities.... which would you do?
As for the Friendly Skies of United....that PR campaign crashed and burned when they dragged a 69 year old man off the plane because they needed the space....for their own crews to get somewhere. Who ya going to trust these days?
Not much weather going on today so decided to go with the flow and what's in the air these days and that's one joke after another about United Airlines whose stock is dropping like a rock. But to be fair it could just as easily have been Delta or JetBlue. So many people I know don't want to fly anymore and I understand why when watching those videos. But when you need to get from point A to B it's sometimes the only option.
@bobbistorm on Twitter
Ps Today's song is in my head from when I got a random letter from a random lady with the same name as a random friend has and my mind went... Isn't that someone I used to know? Enjoy..
Seems a lot of people feel that way about United today.... some airline they used to fly...
Weather Rolling Along. Passover. Freedom. Memories.
As the world turns huh?
There's always weather somewhere.
A lot of my family and friends are traveling this weekend for Passover to relatives. There's a lot of chatter and negativity towards United and American Airlines on delays, disappointments and the poor way they handled problems after a few bad storms this past week. In truth they have more flights that come in and connect from places affected by weather. The NY to FLL route with other carriers are often less affected. Flights connecting through Baltimore are usually better than coming in from Chicago, Denver, etc....
Mother Nature tends to throw wrenches into traveling. I know people who decided to just drive South vs being stuck in airports. But is it really the airlines fault or Mother Nature? I guess if your flight got cancelled and they didn't announce it while you are sitting there at the airport but just sent you a text that got lost you might be annoyed. Can't blame everything on Mother Nature can you?
As for the new alerts this one reminds me oddly of a Golf Course with a big Palm Tree and flag by some hole. How I see the world. How do you see the world? I have a strange mind I guess ;)
United told passengers flights were delayed because of heavy traffic out of their Atlanta Hub so they blamed it on the Masters in Augusta. American said it was because of recovering from bad weather earlier in the week.
Hmmmmm good thing the Israelites left Egypt on foot in the old days for the first Passover because they didn't have to worry about security or flights being cancelled... just the Red Sea parting.......
We all have our priorities. What are yours?
Gotta run, got a brisket in the oven and a table to set and some brownies to bake for a son-in-law who seems to have emptied out half of the Kosher stores in Boro Park, Williamsburg and other parts of Brooklyn.
I'll be back Wednesday Night or Thursday with my thoughts. Til then..........drinking 4 cups of wine tonight with unleavened bread lol (matzah) and making memories and remembering other holidays with my parents and loved ones now gone.
Enjoy your memories while you are making them. They are much more fun than watching them in the rear view mirror.
As the theme of this holiday is Freedom I'll leave you with this oldie goldie.
My daughter Dee always loved Janis... so posting this. What did you think I'd post Proud Mary?
Besos BobbiStorm @bobbistorm on Twitter... add me and follow along.
Ps ... Sorry for any typos... been cooking with blackberry wine and well you know how that goes..
Choose your favorite crayola color on loops today.
Love black and white as it often shows the details better.
Watch the front push thru...
..watch the weather flare up!
How low will it go?
Here's some color for ya....
Weather is volatile in most places during certain periods of the year and it's that simple. As a child of Florida it's humorous sometimes for me to see how other areas handle a heavy rain storm. Miami gets everything from afternoon thunderstorms to May Monsoons to Hurricanes. It rains on one side of the street and yet it's dry on the other. Rain is as much a part of our life as tropical breezes and sunshine. In fact, as I told a friend who wants to move there, the rain every day in the summer keeps us cooler than the rest of the nation. We don't get long spates of 100 degree temperatures in August as usually it rains when it hits 86 degrees. The temperatures then cool off back to a normal, warm, humid temperature in the low 80s and this cycle goes on and on every day certain times of year. If you want an outdoor wedding by the bay aim for February and even then that is not a guarantee as it's a piece of land that juts out into warm tropical waters on all three sides of the Florida Peninsular and is possible on any given day of the year.
That said today in Raleigh there is a Tornado Watch and concerns on heavy rain (the torrential kind that is normal in Miami and very rare in LA) as well as hail and isolated tornadoes. And this line of strong storms stretches down to North Florida where chasers have been chasing this past week. We do get storm chasers in Florida, however it's different than what you get out on the Plains. People set up on rooftops of mall parking lots to get good photographs or travel the back roads of North Florida and the Panhandle. A strong line of storms has hovered over that area for several days. Here in Raleigh school is on a delay today and it was pushed back to 10 AM from 9 AM and as the weather develops that and everything else is fluid today.
It's also worth noting that Tampa that has had weather hovering in the low 90s earlier this week is getting the front later today. And as we all know when cold diving air hits very warm, moist air coming in from the Gulf of Mexico we get turbulent, volatile weather. Expect delays today if you are flying in and out of TPA as many flights connects through their to points South. Flights are delayed today in Chicago as well as other places so check with your airlines for options if you are traveling today.
If you live down there that is a great radar link.
This is a big system.
The WV shows how this system is digging down.
The double barreled low is the wxr foe here!
If you live under the gun today stay aware.
Stay aware for fast moving changes in your local weather.
It's that easy.
There's an App there you can download.
I have a lot of weather friends but I often go first to Mike as he has his finger on the pulse of the Average Joe or Josephine. He's not afraid to say what's on his mind and he moves fast in real time to new images and updates on his site rapidly and that's good when weather is evolving. He doesn't wait until a team of writers put out a script for computer programmers to change the graphics as you see on some weather sites on air and on line. He's real, he's fast and he knows what you want to know. So that said ... check him out at Spaghetti Models and on Facebook.
https://www.facebook.com/mikesweatherpage/ There is always a great flow of comments by weather watchers on his Facebook site so join in the discussion. Or check me out at Twitter @bobbistorm and add me as a friend. A lot of great places to go to discuss and follow weather.
And as always as much as we talk online...
..your main go to site is the NWS.
If you live in the shaded area...
...check out your local warnings.
When the front begins to look like a funnel cloud..
Location: Miami, Raleigh, Crown Heights, Florida, United States
Weather Historian. Studied meteorology and geography at FIU. Been quoted in Wall Street Journal, Washington Post & everywhere else... Lecturer, stormchaser, writer, dancer. If it's tropical it's topical ... covering the weather & musing on life. Follow me on Twitter @ https://twitter.com/#!/BobbiStorm