Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Thursday, October 23, 2014

K9 Dog HURRICANE Saves the Day... Stops newest White House Fence Jumper




Crazy day in news yesterday. The bigger news story in the meteorological world was some of the satellite feeds were broken. Models work off the satellite feeds. Good thing there were no big Category 3 storms out there about to ramp up to Cat 4 like Opal did...

Opal then....

Hurricane_Opal_03_oct_1995_2012Z.jpg (1200×1300)

Now in the GOM or... we think now.

Story and pic from Washington Post.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/wp/2014/10/22/weather-service-stops-receiving-satellite-data-issues-warning-about-forecast-reliability/?hpid=z5


What a beautiful world from way up above....

As for TD9 it was written off as it lost it's spin as it moved inland over the Yucatan. Stay tuned for what will happen in a day or two or three.

Honestly, the weather is still there and it's all headed to the Florida Keys. The good part of this is that hopefully it will be gone by the weekend and the sun will come out and shine on Fantasy Fest. As my friend often says... rain and body paint don't go together well. 

http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Key+West&state=FL&site=KEY&lat=24.5578&lon=-81.7832#.VEkLCvnF-7I

Check in often if you are driving down or hanging around down there the next few days. The rain's name may be BOO!


BIGGEST Hurricane news of the day yesterday is that a K9 dog named HURRICANE was one of the two dogs that helped stop the latest fence jumper. Not to go political here but explain to me please how on a day when there was a terror attack in Ottawa across our boarder in the capital of Canada protection at the White House was not ramped up? I don't care if you lean red, blue or purple this is pathetically nuts but thanks to HURRICANE and his pal

You can't make this stuff up..........


Crazy news day yesterday. A terror attack in Ottawa, where my oldest daughter lived for a while before returning to the States, held center stage on the news all day. A 3 month old baby was killed in Israel by another lone wolf terror attack as a terrorist drove across lanes of traffic into a train/bus in Jerusalem... horrible story. An old close friend was diagnosed with stage 4 cancer and I'm a bit numb and in shock. She has a large beautiful family, grandchildren and our kids and grandchildren have been hanging out for years since we met years back in Minnesota one summer.  So.. a bit out of it today. 

But.........promise ya all that I'll get you a pic of today's most famous hurricane..the K9 dog that helped stop the fence jumper and was slightly bruised up from his ordeal. 

Take care and keep watching the skies... hopefully the gremlins or hackers or just the plain ole mercury retrograde that is holding the weather satellites hostage will be gone poof later today.

Oh...and speaking of the heavens. There is an eclipse today.

http://shadowandsubstance.com/

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/fsd/?n=suneclipse

Besos Bobbi

Ps... if you can say a prayer for my friend Miriam ...for her and her large extended family I'd appreciate it. Do a good deed... give charity somewhere... send good energy and say a prayer.






Wednesday, October 22, 2014

Does TD9 Have Tampa In It's Long Term Travel Plans? History might say yes... Models IFFY



vis-animated.gif (720×480)


Close up on radar as the center of circulation is near land.

Hanna_22Oct14_saba.gif (720×640)

This is a tropical depression and needs to be watched. There is a lot of hype out there on a lot of IFS that might happen down the road. Let's stick with reality and what is as well as looking at another system that formed in late October in a relatively slow season and went down in history as one of Tampa's biggest weather events. Hey...it put a kink in the Boom and destroyed all the citrus crops.

Things overhead on TWC.

"Models don't have a good handle on this system"

Funny. I bet the NHC wishes they could say that. No one has a great handle on this system as it is barely there.

This is why I rarely watch the weather or read what people say as I end up getting more annoyed about the way everyone speculates on something barely there and it blows my mind.

There isn't much new to say.

So many questions....
IF it makes it into the Yucatan Channel and Caribbean....what happens?
Answer. The convection will make it across and it's possible the circulation center will or it's also possible a new circulation center will pop up and take over. It's not a Cat 4 Hurricane it's a developing system.

Will it go to Florida?
Answer. Maybe but that's far down the road ...

Will it loop around in the Caribbean?
Answer :




One thing that sometimes says more than models that change on every model run are the Wind Speed Probabilities for selected locations. They do not predict who gets hit the worst, they show trends and patterns. When a city is added further south you know the door is open further south. Belize is in the wind speed probs not Key West. You see.


  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -

               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM
  TIME       12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO
             00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON

FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION       KT                                                

FRONTERA MX    34  7   2( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   1(10)   X(10)   X(10)

MERIDA MX      34  X   2( 2)   X( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)

COZUMEL MX     34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   5( 7)   2( 9)   1(10)

BELIZE         34  X   2( 2)   2( 4)   9(13)   4(17)   1(18)   X(18)
BELIZE         50  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)

PUERTO BARRIOS 34  X   1( 1)   X( 1)   2( 3)   2( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)

GUANAJA        34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   5( 7)   2( 9)   2(11)

CP SAN ANTONIO 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   1( 5)

ISLE OF PINES  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)

GRAND CAYMAN   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   2( 4)

$$                                                                
FORECASTER AVILA                                                  

As for models...........

Mike's Facebook Page has lot of discussion. Right now it's all discussion and speculation but worth paying attention to as October storms tend to have surprises.

(like his page on Facebook & join in the discussion)

And the reason is because the GFS refuses to give up the ghost of a FL Landfall...down the road.



Here's a little bit of history ... I was looking through old pics this morning on my Facebook and found this picture from Noel a storm I mentioned yesterday. I remember when these models came out they reminded me of tulips falling over against the edge of a tall vase. Note I took great pics of Noel as it cruised past Miami Beach.



They came and tried to close down the beach. Good luck on that, but the patrol car did clear it "just in case" and then the sky turned this South Beach Deco color.. no filter, crummy camera.. just the way it looked.


And, that's what South Beach looks like with an offshore hurricane blowing the palm trees & roughing up the surf.

So where will TD#9 go?

Note from the part of the discussion that I am highlighting...the fate of TD9 possibly Tropical Storm Hanna is tied to the fate and movement of the trof.

"If thedepression emerges over the northwestern Caribbean Sea in about 3
days, there is an opportunity for some strengthening. Most of the
global models, primarily the GFS and the HWRF, forecast a favorable
upper-level environment for the system to redevelop, if the
the cyclone survives its path over land.  On this basis, the NHC
forecast now maintains tropical depression status through five days.

Steering currents are weak, and the depression has been meandering
during the past few hours. The cyclone is located at the base of a
mid-level trough, and most likely the depression will drift eastward
for the next 3 days while on the south side of the trough."

So where do we go from here?

Well if you live in Tampa you are REALLY paying close attention.

at201409_model.gif (640×480)

The infamous 1921 hurricane that hit Tampa was in late October.

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/general/lib/lib1/nhclib/mwreviews/1921.pdf




Yup... came up out of the Caribbean at the end of a relatively weak season. Jim William's at www.hurricanecity.com has said many times that they are more prone to being hit in a weak season. My words not his quote... his thoughts based on his in depth analysis of hurricane tracks and hurricane history.

Weak season. Well, weak season unless you lived in Tampa.

track.gif (640×512)

My family lived in Tampa then.... they saw the destruction up close and personal.


I am NOT saying this IS Tampa's storm. I am saying that it has happened, it could happen but first Tropical Depression #9 has to survive it's travel across the Yucatan and into the Caribbean... 

This is a part 1..part 2 scenario.

A lot of IFS...

Some good pics to look through from a great site about Tampa hurricane history. I look through these pics and wonder if my Great Grandfather is one of the men standing by the bay staring at the damage. He so loved Tampa Bay.

http://www.tampapix.com/hurricane.htm

Newest models on Tropical Depression #9


This is labeled "IF" in my pics. 

It's a real IF but an IF that many in Tampa do not want to see happen.

Big news day...


Heavy global news story with the shooting in Ottawa.
Multiple shootings of a terrorist kind.
Nobel Prize winner was to meet with the Canadian Prime Minister.
So much developing as news breaks out.. makes TD9 seem insignificant.
Note ceremony in Toronto would have massive security... Ottawa would be a "soft target"

But if it goes on to become Hanna and do Tampa ..it would be historic.

Time will tell.. 
Besos Bobbi

Ps..........yes I will be updating today as events unravel in the tropics...or are upgraded ... IF and IFFER it seems.

<iframe width="560" height="315" src="//www.youtube.com/embed/gFrXbqsohu8" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>







Tuesday, October 21, 2014

Love Potion #9 Forms in the BOC.. I mean TD 9 :) Is Hanna in the Wings? Eastbound ...for now...



Beautiful spin there tonight in the cradle of the BOC. NHC ups the Invest to Tropical Depression #9.

They said earlier today IF the convection maintained itself over the area of broad low pressure they would upgrade the system and they did keep their word.

It is forecast to move to the East across the Yucatan towards the Caribbean and Cuba. Where exactly it goes after that is still up for grabs. There is a lot of discussion about "if it makes it across the Yucatan" yet the Yucatan is not high land and most of the system will remain over water sucking in energy from the BOC and the GOM. So... it should make it across. It managed to spin today after looking weak earlier so would not count it out.

The track to the East in the short term may save Fantasy Fest in the Keys... or it will just connect with another area of disturbed weather and move back up to the NE towards South Florida. It's still too soon to tell. We should have better data later tonight and tomorrow as overnight models are analyzed and the first morning visible becomes available. For now we have the floater above...


Official discussion above. Basically a wait and see set up... note ECMF shows merging..

Not much of a pulse on Dvorak...


We'll have to check it's temperature tomorrow and see if #9 looks like it has a name.


There 9 is mixed into the trof... typical late October system.

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/loops/wxloop.cgi?wv_east_enhanced+6

(good loop but you have to navigate around to really enjoy it...)

NWS 7 Day Loop has the LOW riding or merging with the front..


IF Hanna is born tomorrow morning (we weather people wax poetic on new systems)
It has a rough road ahead...


Interests from Mexico to Caymen Islands should pay attention ...in short term..
Wind probabilities: 

MERIDA MX      34  X   3( 3)   5( 8)   2(10)   2(12)   X(12)   1(13)

COZUMEL MX     34  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   2( 4)  11(15)   2(17)   1(18)
COZUMEL MX     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

BELIZE         34  X   2( 2)   1( 3)   4( 7)   6(13)   1(14)   1(15)

PUERTO BARRIOS 34  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   2( 5)   X( 5)   1( 6)

GUANAJA        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   5( 7)   3(10)   1(11)

CP SAN ANTONIO 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   2( 5)   1( 6)

ISLE OF PINES  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   3( 5)

GRAND CAYMAN   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   3( 6)

$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BROWN                                                    



Models:


The CONE.... 


I'll be back with more information in the morning...
oh... you may be reading this in the morning...
well check back ;)

It could reform or merge with other tropical entities and do a Nicole


(a little lesson in tropical history...)

Sweet Tropical Dreams







Broad Area of Circulation with Little Organized Convection. Messy ... So messy. Azores Uh Oh...

wv-animated.gif (720×480)

So many ways to slice and dice this BROAD... LARGE system with a cyclonic spin. Recon went in this afternoon and found a broad closed circulation-ish not near the strongest convection.

No strong convection = no name.

avn-animated.gif (720×480)

The arcing band like features are more visible on the visible. Duh... right?

vis-animated.gif (720×480)

Nice. Very nice. However it's taking up most of the BOC and rain is already blowing off towards South Florida. West Palm Beach had flooding rains earlier today.

Worth noting that the system in the far Atlantic with the BIG swirl is also being monitored by the models. Okay, it's like Mother Nature is mocking us here...


This graphic shows chances for development... 

al_rCUMP_048.gif (600×710)

Better chances then the BOC lopsided system.

But all eyes are on the BOC system so that is what we are discussing tonight.

Just don't lose site of the larger picture.

Note new wave moving off of Africa. Wave in Atlantic battling shear and BIG Swirl off Azores.


Oh...by the way we have bases over there... we are watching it carefully even if all of the talk is about the BOC, GOM, 305 and Fantasy Fest Forecasts.


It does have a yellow x on NHC main page... don't be surprised if they "find" a storm out there..
You heard it here first.........a possibility.

While playing fantasy cane never lose sight of reality... 
Site
Sight

What's in a name ;)


Back to the BOC system and note it's not a "storm" but a system but still let's discuss the possible Hanna and what she might be like down the road....

Storms like this always remind me of Hurricane Earl in 1998. That was August, this is October. More likely to track further south unless some cold front ramps up fast.




No tropical met can say "Earl" without rolling their eyes and qualifying how poorly Earl looked for most of the time we were tracking it.

"Hurricane Earl originated out of a strong tropical wave that moved off the west coast of Africa on August 17. By August 23, a weak area of low pressure developed within the wave and well-developed convective activity was present as it tracked through the Lesser Antilles. Once in the Caribbean Sea, strong wind shear produced by the outflow of Hurricane Bonnie inhibited further development of the system. As it remained well-defined, satellites easily followed the low pressure into the Gulf of Mexico. By August 31, the storm had become sufficiently organized for the National Hurricane Center (NHC) to classify it as Tropical Depression Five. At this time, the depression was located roughly half-way between Merida and Tampico, Mexico.[1]
Operationally, the NHC immediately classified the system as Tropical Storm Earl based on a Hurricane Hunter Reconnaissance missionthat found flight-level winds of 49 mph (79 km/h), corresponding to surface winds of 40 mph (65 km/h). Due to the existence of multiple circulation centers, the initial movement of the storm was uncertain, but forecasters anticipated a general northward movement.[2] In post-season analysis, it was determined that the system intensified into Tropical Storm Earl while located about 575 miles (925 km) south-southwest of New Orleans. Initial advisories on Earl relocated the center of circulation several times before focusing on the true circulation center.[1]"
Above is from Wikipedia. Says it as well as I can or anyone can.

Earl wasn't pretty but he was briefly a Hurricane and had more centers than 3 Faces of Eve. Think Vicky/Nicky on One Life to Live if you are too young to know what the Eve reference is...

The problem with the track is the same as I mentioned earlier. Confusing possibilities.

Current models show that it could go South just as easily as it could go NE towards Florida.

storm_93.gif (800×600)

Don't lose site of reality while looking at models.

TWC showed a story tonight on Hurricane Opal in 1995. Nice, but no soap radio. Nothing about this system that has any comparison to Opal other than the same breeding ground.

opal_1995_map.gif (852×818)

And, note Opal started on the East side of the Yucatan. No one noticed as the whole world was watching the O J Simpson trial that was coming down to the wire.

Mind you it's looking more like a wishbone model than spaghetti models.

at201493_model.gif (640×480)

In truth it's very likely that it is going to continue to pump moisture up and over towards South Florida. The GOM is going to be messy for a few days. Still not convinced that the real thing forms on the East side of the Yucatan. Might be remnants of this system meeting up with a wave that gets into the Caribbean and moisture from the deep SW Carib.

Look at the wind flow chart for this area. It's windier than it was in Pretoria today when they were trying to report on Pistorius trial.


Again. 

The front comes down... moves back up or possibly goes flat and splits down near Cuba. It's a very fluid situation and I do not trust fronts in the Florida Straits when it's not yet Thanksgiving. 

Current forecast for Key West for the rest of the week. 80s daytime. 75 Low at night. Rain sometimes heavy, sometimes not.


Looks like more rain... 
WPB
Miami
KW

What else is new?



Sweet Tropical Dreams...

Bobbi Storm







Tropical Update for the 305. GOM? CARIB? Don't Worry Be Happy Today.. (maybe later in the week...hmnnn) Everything I know about life I learned in LA in the 80s ;)




Let's talk about the tropics and possible development.

Worth noting yet has not been highlighted by the NHC as yet is the flare up of convection in the Atlantic moving towards the Islands. This is the very active remnants of an old tropical wave that has always had problems maintaining itself. Not the best wave as far as being "well formed" but then again a wave is a wave is a wave. Whatever rudimentary signs of circulation there were was not attached to the stubborn convection. Happens often... those are the wanna bee storms that never get a name. Sometimes, they get one when the low pressure center becomes better aligned with the convection and vavavavoom suddenly there is something to talk about..

Why am I talking about it when you are wondering about the system in the BOC that should move into the GOM possibly towards the 305? Because it's worth talking about. Though there is no yellow X it is quietly being monitored by the tropical powers that be. See the circle on the bottom image?


See just above the circle over the wave... 
"someone" is watching it... 


Let's watch it a bit... has a nice roll going on there. 
A better "roll" than anything in the BOC... 
Hmnnnn.... 


NHC be like tropical wave stalkers... 

Official tropical weather discussion:

"..TROPICAL WAVES...
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 50W/51W FROM 16N 
SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD NEAR 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE 
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 7N TO 
16N BETWEEN 50W AND 55W."

They are watching even if they don't say anything. IF this wave manages to maintain convection they will say something... and IF the right models notice it and provide model support. 

Meanwhile those same models showed support for a system developing in the BOC. However watching the weather satellites it's obvious upper air conditions are not sooo favorable for development.

Wake me up if something organized officially forms there...............  


Just playing with ya...  you know I'm watching it while I listen to oldie goldies from the 80s. According to a very reliable test I took on Facebook I'm an 80s chick. I grew up in the 80s it seems. I'm also like ice cream, my hillbilly name is Savannah and I was Mata Hari in a previous life time. Wow...the things you never knew about me. Amazingly they didn't say Mary Bo Peep. (Hope someonewasdrinkingtheircoffeewhilereadingthisblogthismorning) 


Model tracks for the system in the BOC show a confusing picture. 
Like the scribble scrabbles from a Libra trying to decide on a track for a very weak Hanna.
(Tell me you can ignore all that color moving towards the Caribbean Stage Right??)



One thing you have to know about me is I will never give you regurgitated weather discussion. I purposely do not read other blogs or discussion online until I write this blog. I do watch the models, view satellite imagery and other meteorological data.

It's more likely going from a climo view point that something will develop closer to the Caribbean and whatever that something will be will be a difficult track to forecast. We are much closer to early November from a meteorological view point. Cold fronts are a common site in South Florida. Some Octobers we are dying from heat stroke and have not a clue where our cute boots are... not this year.

Caribbean systems that do odd tracks are typical for late October or early November.

Will us old timers ;) ever forget Hurricane Gordon from November of 1994. 



Then there was Karen tracing the Fish symbol in the Caribbean in late November. 


Then we take you back to 1966 when Hurricane Inez said "I'm gonna do Miami... or OBX or" ...and then said "no I don't think so" 


Cold fronts come and cold fronts go and often stall out and go flat this time of year in the Caribbean.

Check out this 7 day loop from the NOAA.

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/day0-7loop.html (loop it... )


Note there is a cold front and then it goes flat. Perfect set up for a mish mosh, Caribbean System. You have convection, the dead front sort of tickles the convection, sometimes low pressure drops and the next strong cold front is up near Alaska. Leaves the door open for a "which way do I go" system as the closer front moving East is weaker than the one up in Alaska. 

Weather is large and has a large scale aspect to it. You can stalker like stare at the floater but you need to see the whole picture.

20141021.1445.goes13.wv.fd.x.jpg image

You see the area in the BOC and GOM headed towards the 305 (Miami) is really part of a long monsoon trof that stretches back into the East Pacific. There is a HUGE system in the North Atlantic near Europe and you know what that's the remnant of and that leaves us wondering "what is going on with that tropical wave in the Atlantic" . . .

Take a good look at that system in the North Atlantic. Wow.

20141021.1200.multisat.visir.bckgr.Global_Global_bm.DAYNGT.jpg image

So the search goes on for the next Tropical Storm or even a Hurricane.

Since I'm in an 80s sort of mood and yes the devil is in the details I'll leave you with this witty little 80s tune... and thought...


Besos Bobbi

Ps On Fantasy Fest... Key West... 
Close up of the most recent satellite. Pack the raincoat for Fantasy Fest for now..

20141021.1445.goes13.vis.x.key_west.x.jpg image

NWS discussion for KW

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=KEY&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
931 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
THE LARGE SCALE VIEW IS SHOWING AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES WITH A TROUGH STRETCHING BACK TO THE SOUTH ALONG THE
EASTERN SEA BOARD...THEN ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...AND BACK TO
THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE MIMIC TWP DERIVED PRODUCT SHOWS

A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN MOISTURE OVER THE SOUTHERN TIP OF FLORIDA
AND WESTWARD OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE KBYX RADAR HAS PLENTY OF
SHOWER ACTIVITY...WITH AREAS OF THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE LOWER KEYS...WHILE THE COVERAGE OF THESE SHOWERS IS INCREASING AT THIS HOUR. WINDS ARE MAINLY EAST TO SOUTHEAST AND GENTLE TO LIGHT OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOWS.

.FORECAST (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...
AN AREA OF DISORGANIZED LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE...WITH A TELECONNECTION TO THE TROUGH MENTIONED ABOVE...AND HAS SHOWN A BURST OF CONVECTION OVERNIGHT. THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH IS SPREADING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO AND OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS. THE TROUGH WILL PROMOTE HIGHER RAIN CHANCES

THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...AND AN UPDATE TO THE EXISTING FORECAST MAY
BE REQUIRED TO RAISE RAIN CHANCES TODAY. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
SHORT TERM THIS MORNING FOR THE NEED FOR AN UPDATE. OTHERWISE THE CURRENT FORECAST RESOLUTION WILL ONLY NEED FINE TUNING FOR
CONSISTENCY.

Feels like Rain... then again it rains a lot there so don't worry on it... don't worry.. be happy!
Rain or shine... best place in the world is Miami and Key West...