Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Sunday, October 14, 2018

Eye of Hurricane Michael... Video... Thoughts on the Eye of a Hurricane.

 

Remember that image?
I posted it from a larger posted.
it's not doctored in any way.
Just cut it down to the eye.
And indeed it looked like a person's eye.
Michael's eye.
Below in Black and White.


Moving towards landfall.
Perfection.



Jim Williams was in the eye.
The edge of the eye.
It got quiet and calm.
He reached for the car door to get out...
...it got really windy and things went flying.
I laughed.
Sorry... I wasn't worried about him.
He's smart, very smart and cautious.
Was just kind of funny to me.


The eye of Michael, plain and simple. I decided it needed it's own blog post and one I could refer to or find for myself easily to remember. Impressive video. I've been in the EYE and it's something you never forget. Surreal in ways as suddenly after a symphony of meteorological noise during the first part of the hurricane that is one part debris hitting into things, trees falling down nearby, the roar... the unmistakable roar of the hurricane wind louder at times and the slamming of rain and objects caught in strong squalls and then suddenly after hours it stops...and it's quiet and the blue sky comes out above and if you are luck you can see the sun shining down. Surreal but very real. You almost feel giddy after all the noisy, dangerous drama the sun is shining and there are blue skies. Sometimes you see the edge of the eye wall but usually that comes at you fast with the return of the cacophony of horrific noise and the need to once again hunker down until the second half of the hurricane has passed on somewhere else. You almost feel you are imagining the quiet, still calm of the eye but you remember it forever.


The Eye on Earthnull.
The center... very clear and visible.



Amazingly the eye or the "center" of Michael was still going strong as it moved into North Carolina. So now I'll leave you with video and some thoughts to wonder on and to remember the fury of the eye wall the surrounds the eye where the most dangerous, deadly winds are and should you ever have the chance to be in the eye of a hurricane....... remember stay near your safe spot and get back in it fast as the back side of the eye comes back with a fury stronger usually than the front side of the eye.


Another view.


Some video of Irma on Big Pine Key.



Hurricane raging....


Hurricane above.
Then the wind stops as seen below.


The sounds of a hurricane?
Turn your sound up.


And then it stops.
And the rain stops.
And the wind stops.
And the sun comes out if you are lucky.
But be careful where you are....
...when the eye wall comes back fast.
If you are far from safety..
..you run for your life!

I can still see my son running back to the house.
After telling us he "knew what he was doing" going to a friend.
And then.......
WHAM... 
The wind picked up, the sky turned dark that moment.
It got very very very windy.
And he came running back down the street to the house.
I smiled.

Yeah......"Thank you God"
Good timing.
And we locked the door.
Bolted it.
Pushed the china cabinet back in front of it.
And hunkered down til it was over.

Some eyes are easier than others.
Some eyes are longer than others.
But then the second half of the storm returns.

This is when many people die actually.
They venture out to go check on their friend...
....To check on damage.
... maybe they can repair something fast.

The 1926 Great Miami Hurricane was a huge hurricane with a huge eye and it was moving slowly. It was mean and sneaky as the eye coincided with sunrise and daylight and to people not aware of what a hurricane was they thought they had made it safely through the dark night and the storm was gone. They got in their Model T Fords and drove away from safety across the bridge into Downtown Miami to check on their stores. Old timers begged them not to go but they were sure the storm was gone... the storm surge came back down the river, the wind blew and many were blown away. On Miami Beach people tried to get back to Miami and their cars were swept away as they tried to get back across the causeway to Miami to relative safety. During the eye you go out, look around and don't go very far from where ever your safe place is .... but in 1926 before satellite imagery and radar people didn't know where the weather was and didn't understand what a hurricane was and people died when the fierce second half of the eye raced back over Miami and Miami Beach. It happens in every storm, no matter how much we know now and how much information we have it's human nature to venture out and look about and try to check on a neighbor or a relative or run down the block to a friend's house and we think we can do it fast before the eyewall returns. 


Turn your sound up loud.
This is Jim Leonard who passed away a few years ago.
A legend truly in Hurricane Chasing.
The second half of Hurricane Charley.

I leave you with this because everyone always complains about Hurricane Charley. In any Chat Room or discussion on Facebook Live when Mike is talking people always ask him about how "sure" they are and mention Hurricane Charley. For those who went through the eye of Hurricane Charley ... those who thought they had lower chances of being in the eye than other places and faced a hurricane stronger than they expected they never ever forget Hurricane Charley. Every hurricane that makes it into the Eastern Gulf of Mexico reminds them of Charley and they worry that once again they will find themselves facing the wrath of a strong, powerful Category 4 Hurricane. Turn the sound up and you may understand why.....


Besos BobbiStorm
Follow me @bobbistorm on Twitter

Ps... With extreme admiration for those who took the videos and gathered the data... those I know online and those I am friends with in person and know well. For those who have been through the eye of a hurricane as I have and some of us have been through more than one eye... each is different, the power and force of nature when it is on a rampage is never forgotten.


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Hurricanes Leslie and Michael. Destruction in Portugal and Spain Looks Like It Does in the Carolinas and Virginia.









Long tracking Leslie shown above in her better days.
Her long track West then SW then East...
...then SSE then ENE.
Eventually she did find a place to make landfall.
Spain and Portugal of all places.


Before the Post Tropical Cyclone makes landfall...
People do there what they do here...
They went to the beach.
They watched...they surfed.



Watches and warnings were posted.
But people there have little experience with hurricanes.

Looks like a beautiful place.
Never been there.


 https://www.cbsnews.com/news/hurricane-leslie-latest-path-track-forecast-portugal-spain-today-2018-10-13/
After the storm they clean up.
They sift through the debris.


Leslie did to Spain what you would expect from a Hurricane. Cars smashed into trees and trees that toppled smashed into cars. Many trees down and people seemingly shocked to see how strong Leslie could be even in her very old age. Drudge has a story on some 129 year old woman, it's a shame no one could actually interview Leslie as she was the Golden Girl of Tropical Cyclones this Hurricane Season. 69 Advisories written and she just kept traveling around the Atlantic Ocean. But when you get that much energy going to long it doesn't just disappear even if it's downgraded and turning extratropical.



I don't follow European Weather much.
So far they've had a "Medicane" in the Mediterranean 
And Hurricane or X Hurricane Leslie.
Where will Michael go I wonder?
He's Post Tropical but as weather he's still there.

I do believe in Global Warming.
It's just I also believe in patterns.
And when weather patterns repeat......
... the pattern repeats.
We don't know much about hurricanes before the 1800s.
Some data on storms in the 1700s.
Whatever hit the Lost Colony left little written history.
I'm guessing a hurricane was part of it.
A beautiful place to visit.
But a bad place to live before weather forecasting came along.
No cone from the NHC to complain about.
Just high surf, strong winds and storm surge...
Data suggests it wasn't a hurricane...
...who knows time has not told yet.

Watching coverage on TWC.
It all looks the same.
Andrew in a different location.
Some houses survived.
Some houses were lifted away
Weird Science
Wind tunnels through homes.
Destroys the roof.
The pictures don't fall off the wall.

I'll let those who do argue over the exact strength of Michael at landfall and what we learn about rapid intensification and wind speeds on the ground vs measured by recon and why some of us saw this coming and others didn't see it coming until it began to intensify in the Gulf of Mexico and the media jumped onto it a day before landfall. 

My kids follow https://twitter.com/DaDaBuh for a reason and it's not because they surf. My kids watch Mike on Facebook Live and tell me what he said often. Really. They quote him to me but not sure they read my blog, which is okay cause no one needs their children seeing what they say about them on a blog right? https://www.facebook.com/mikesweatherpage/?ref=br_rs


I have friends who slice and dice storms in odd ways.
That looks like art but he's studying the energy in the storm.

Cranky is probably doing Fall this week.
Studying storms and fronts and the weather.
Weeks away he called the set up for Michael.

You either go out of your way to stay informed.
Or you find out when the media hypes it.
Your choice.
I know many who were burned before.......
... watch weeks out and follow those they trust.
I'm one of them.
I try and educate and give early warning.
I've been through it and glued to it now.

Going to the Fair later.
Unless I change my mind.
It's in the low 50s in Raleigh.
But the sun is hot.
What to wear?
Hmnnn.

I'm going to leave you with some discussion on Michael below.
More on the whole process and my questions.
Why is it so hard to update a good format such as the Cone?
I know I hate pushing that button updating my phone.
Happens so often.... just why?
Facebook updates their platform...
Twitter did and I hate it but some like it.
Updating platforms is a part of life.

I want to give my thoughts on Michael in a way maybe some can understand. You spend weeks and months entertaining and throwing crap down the sink, down the garbage disposal and over time it builds up. One day you hear that horrible sound of gurgling noise and you realize "oh crap the garbage disposal..." and you look down and see dirty water bubbling up in the other sink. It's always at the worst time, like Thanksgiving or Passover when preparing for lots of people for dinner. You run into the other room, grab the plunger from the bathroom that you bought at Ollies or Big Lots or even the Dollar Store and start plunging but it won't budge. This is a mess that built up over time. You think on calling the plumber, you complain to your neighbor and ask who to call. The neighbor comes over, insists they can fix it and not to call the plumber. They bring this huge industrial size plunger and start plunging away and suddenly that noise of water going down happens and voila ... everything has changed. You clean up the mess and your drain works better than it has in months. 

A huge high pressure ridge that sets up for weeks or even most of the summer over the South, budging only a little off and on creates a pattern where high pressure building to the North allows Low Pressure to build to the South. Late August comes and passes, September comes and it's just as hot as most of August was and people jealously eye cold fronts that make it down into Montana and it seems like nothing will fix this pattern and suddenly the plungers from the tropics comes along and as the ridge was strong... the storm is strong and Mother Nature uses the really good plunger that works better than the Dollar Store Plunger known as Alberto and Gordon and voila... cold air is flowing down into the Carolinas and the flip for the Seasons was switched everywhere of course but Florida where it's still hot. And as cold fronts dangle off of the North Florida coast we need to watch to see if anything forms. It could be a tropical storm or subtropical storm or more of a hybrid but these things do happen sometimes in the same way energy comes NE often out of the Caribbean this time of year. It's all part of the process. The pattern changes by location as to what the pattern is that particular year but the changing over process is the same. In 1842 there was obviously a similar process and a hurricane landed on Spain's shore, NC had a bad hurricane and so did the Panhandle of Florida and for the most part the MDR was quiet. Energy happened, it just went elsewhere. 


You can check the last blog post for a more indepth look at the 1842 Atlantic Hurricane Season. I reposted some thoughts from there to here so browse through to see what I am talking about. My bottom line is history repeats that's why we study it as a guide towards the present and what could happen down the road. 


As for my thoughts on Michael there is just so much I cannot wrap my head around and I'll discuss it another day. But for tonight this is all I want to say. Some thoughts below on Michael and NC and VA where more people died adding to a sadly, climbing death toll as more bodies are picked from the rubble across several states and now in Europe they are doing the same with Leslie, going through the rubble. 

We really need to understand Rapid Intensification better.
We are getting better.
We need get "more better" as we say Down South.
Going to the Fair.
Have a great day.
Give thanks.
Give charity to those who need.
And be happy.
Show love.




Look at that picture.
The link to the article is below.


https://www.cnn.com/2018/10/13/us/hurricane-michael-wxc/index.html

The death toll climbs state by state in unique but predictable ways. A tree fell on a truck or a truck slammed into a fallen tree. Storm surge deaths come to light as teams get into the areas and go through debris and find bodies. The back side of Michael that intensified from North Carolina into Virginia as it became one with the front took many I am sure by surprise as so much emphasis in the media is on "landfall" and "storm surge" and "highest winds at landfall" and very little is talked about by the media on anything beyond landfall. The NHC mentions things and reminds people to check their local NWS office and as I've said sadly the local NWS offices get very little press as the media touts the cone showing where the storm will make landfall. Anyone reading blogs or following on social media knew that this storm was moving fast and within one day it would be make it from Florida to the Carolinas and into Virginia. But the average person watching the nightly news still or checking headlines will only see the CONE a day before they are blasted by 50 to 80 winds in North Carolina and Virginia.

What I wrote on Monday about Michael.
I said it on Sunday too.
Models showed an extremely fast moving storm.


My blog from Monday before Michael made landfall.
When it was trying to pull together.
Pleading people to remember how fast it would move.
And that people in the Carolinas and Virginia...
...would get impacts and they would happen sooner rather than later.
Dangerous impacts from a Tropical Storm.

The local weather people here talked on it's dangerous impacts but the general feeling was that they were keeping us in a Tropical Storm Watch out of an abundance of caution and that the Tropical Storm Warning was put up for the same reason. Few inland took it seriously and the only concern on the local news was to assure people Down East still cleaning up from Florence wouldn't have to worry on more flooding. Flooding in NC and Virginia was NEVER a concern with Michael, but high winds as the storm and the front blasted through after a solid day of rain with wet soil meant trees would topple and weather would become dangerous. If it wasn't for the NC State Fair canceling the Opening Day and postponing it off til Friday I don't think the locals here would have thought much on Michael. Everyone was in shock and it showed the possibility that high winds were there as they had to watch the rides and secure what wasn't taken down. If the Fair is worried, there must be something to worry on someone told me in their own words. Smart thing too that the Fair did that as two trees went down on the property or part of the trees and one severely injured one of the people who works the fair. Luckily no one else was walking through that area near that gate when that tree came down. His trailer was parked near the spot as he works the fair, otherwise there would have been hundreds, thousand of people in the general vicinity. The Fair Grounds are beautiful when the Fair is not in town as it's the site of the NC State Flea Market and it's a fun place to walk around on a Sunday under huge Oak trees providing shade on a hot summer day.

Cranky sent me the wind speeds as I had asked him on Friday. Impressive what the wind and gusts were that brought down huge trees and added in the death toll from Michael. I believe five people in Virginia died which is just so sad as they should have seen this coming as we talked about it online for days, however did the message get out to the media I wonder?

https://twitter.com/crankywxguy If you like longreads and you obviously do as you are reading this.. check out his blog. Spoiler Alert it's longer than mine. He has much good information to share.



Those are strong winds.
They caused death and destruction.
But the talk was mostly about where landfall would be...
... but people died far away from Mexico City.
Far from the Florida Panhandle.


So there are just some things I don't understand.

They didn't evacuate a Florida State Hospital which is used for mental health patients who mostly have been committed put there against their will and I'm sure there was some logic and they "thought they'd be okay" but they weren't and so they were dropping food and water by helicopter down to them for days. Seems odd. Strange story. Didn't they  know that it could easily be cut off and with the watches and warnings up for this storm when it was a Potential Storm why did they not evacuate them before or have more supplies?

https://www.thestate.com/news/nation-world/national/article219837535.html

Much I don't understand about how things work with regard to warning people of inland dangers from landfalling hurricanes and the NHC's refusal to update their cone to show inland dangers or flooding potential is just lame. They do a great job in general under difficult circumstances but when you ask them to modify the Scale they use and the cone they refuse saying it was "confuse people" even though these same people are on Facebook and Twitter that updates their format every month and people get used to it. They truly act like that old guy driving along in an 1970 Datsun because they refuse to sell it going 45 mph on the highway because the speed limit is 55 MPH listening to Iron Butterfly on a cassette player that they had to install when the 8 Track died on them sadly.

I get it. I hate when my phone says it wants to do an update. But it's part of life and it's time for the Cone to be updated. Again possibly put the cone over the satellite image and put an old fashioned symbol for flooding over the area that may lose all their crops, homes, farms, businesses and where many may lose their lives because they thought they would be fine because they were not "in the cone." Life will go on really and it will be a better product.

I'll write a full post tomorrow on the tropics and an update on Michael as in what was done right and what was done wrong that hopefully we can learn from and update the way we do things and do it better the next time around. They learned after Sandy they needed to put in good graphics showing where flooding would occur and they have put out some great products, but they are not on center stage and the only thing that gets shown in the media is the cone so it's time to update the cone. I'm pretty sure no one at the NHC is still using an old flip phone or refusing to update their iPhone so why not update the Cone?



Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter






Saturday, October 13, 2018

Leslie Makes Landfall near Portugal and Spain After Being Downgraded Just Prior to Landfall. 1842 Also Had a Hurricane Hit Spain... After 2 Similar Strong Hurricanes in NC and FL and a Quiet MDR. Thoughts on the NHC CONE and a 1970 Datsun.



Leslie made Landfall.
I know. 
I can't believe it either.... 
So many different cones the last few days.
One of them got it right though.


(I'll discuss the yellow area in the MDR in next post)

See that little red dot on the top right of the page?
It says LE... 
That's Leslie impacting the Portugal and Spain.
Here I'll make a close up for you...


Maybe it changed it's name to Lee?

Anyway...
It went extratropical suddenly.
That's all that's left of it.
It still had 75 MPH but it was no longer a "hurricane"
I suppose we can continuing saying Spain didn't get hit.
Just slammed by a wild storm with 75 MPH winds.
Hmnnn.



It's possible that they may see more weather down the road.
That's the track for Michael.


Maybe France won't get a tropical storm.
Wherever the remnants go they will be strong.
Storms that travel that fast don't fall apart quickly.

Leslie may get back over water by the way...


Accuweather obviously has an opinion.




I'll update tomorrow with information on what happened.
But I'm pretty sure it was one stormy mess.

So you think Spain doesn't have hurricanes?
They do. 
They have.

This is an animation of the 1842 Hurricane Season 
It's a best guess based on DATA.
Note what is missing?
Nothing forming in the MDR.
Different but similar landfall locations to this year.
NC got slammed.
Florida Panhandle got slammed.
Weak systems into Texas
Florida Keys into Panhandle. 
A storm in October goes to Spain.
This is what I mean by history repeats.
You learn from history.


No huge Caribbean storms.
MDR was quiet it seems.
Other areas were not.

The real reason I wanted to come on tonight was to talk on the 1842 hurricane that hit Spain which may or may not have fulfilled the rules of the NHC but it goes down in history as a landfalling Hurricane. Why this is so important other than random information is that the 1842 Hurricane Season bears an uncanny resemblance to the 2018 Hurricane Season.



In Alphabetical order are the locations that dealt with tropical weather in 1842. The video below is what it would look like IF we had satellite imagery and cones out the wazoo. Note how similar the tracks are and remember this year Texas got hit by a few crazy "no name" storms that were worse than some of our named storms. They had the impacts of what would have been a strong named storm without the name including serious flooding.

In 1842 NC had one of it's worst storms in history.
Massive flooding, towns destroyed. 
It's always in the history of NC storms books.


There are no reviews.
Remind me to write a review.
It's an awesome book.
From Google below:


In September a storm was around the Florida Keys.
The Florida Panhandle had a severe tropical storm later.
 Ludlum the best of the best early mets..
Discounted it being another storm near Texas and believed...
...it was a continuation of the storm down in the Keys.
Sound familiar?
Gordon?



In October.......
A storm came up out you know where.
And made landfall in the Florida Panhandle.
Read Wikipedia or click on the text below.


Sure sounds a lot like Michael.
Locations a bit different.
Track a bit different but the pattern was there.

What happened next?

A hurricane hit Spain.
You can't make this up.......
They showed Vince from 2005 as an example.


See history does repeat.
This was 1842.
I bet you are wondering what happened next...



One formed off the Florida coast... to near Bermuda.
It brushed the FL coast and Charleston area with gale force winds.
An earthen dam had damage along the Georgia Coast.
It would be very logical to believe that formed at the tail end of a front.


There are fronts moving across the country.
Moisture in the Caribbean.
The last of the tropical waves moving West.
Caribbean is favored by Climo through November.


As much as we are watching the Caribbean for some system to form that could be a weaker version of Michael or some November storm that cruises ENE or NE out of the Caribbean threatening the Islands and or the Bahamas it's just as easy to believe now that we have fronts on the move that one will falter and stall out off the Florida Coast and another system similar to the last system of 1842 could happen this year. History repeats and obviously there was a similar pattern that year as this year. If we didn't have satellite imagery the way we do now and models an old time meteorologist would probably connect the dots and say some of the storm that was Kirk went West into the Caribbean and eventually reformed and moved North into Florida. In 1842 there were no models, radar data or satellite imagery.

So keep watching.

As for my thoughts tonight on Michael there is just so much I cannot wrap my head around and I'll discuss it another day. But for tonight this is all I want to say.




Look at that picture.
The link to the article is below.


https://www.cnn.com/2018/10/13/us/hurricane-michael-wxc/index.html

The death toll climbs state by state in unique but predictable ways. A tree fell on a truck or a truck slammed into a fallen tree. Storm surge deaths come to light as teams get into the areas and go through debris and find bodies. The back side of Michael that intensified from North Carolina into Virginia as it became one with the front took many I am sure by surprise as so much emphasis in the media is on "landfall" and "storm surge" and "highest winds at landfall" and very little is talked about by the media on anything beyond landfall. The NHC mentions things and reminds people to check their local NWS office and as I've said sadly the local NWS offices get very little press as the media touts the cone showing where the storm will make landfall. Anyone reading blogs or following on social media knew that this storm was moving fast and within one day it would be make it from Florida to the Carolinas and into Virginia. But the average person watching the nightly news still or checking headlines will only see the CONE a day before they are blasted by 50 to 80 winds in North Carolina and Virginia.


My blog from Monday before Michael made landfall.
When it was trying to pull together.
Pleading people to remember how fast it would move.
And that people in the Carolinas and Virginia...
...would get impacts and they would happen sooner rather than later.
Dangerous impacts from a Tropical Storm.

The local weather people here talked on it's dangerous impacts but the general feeling was that they were keeping us in a Tropical Storm Watch out of an abundance of caution and that the Tropical Storm Warning was put up for the same reason. Few inland took it seriously and the only concern on the local news was to assure people Down East still cleaning up from Florence wouldn't have to worry on more flooding. Flooding in NC and Virginia was NEVER a concern with Michael, but high winds as the storm and the front blasted through after a solid day of rain with wet soil meant trees would topple and weather would become dangerous. If it wasn't for the NC State Fair canceling the Opening Day and postponing it off til Friday I don't think the locals here would have thought much on Michael. Everyone was in shock and it showed the possibility that high winds were there as they had to watch the rides and secure what wasn't taken down. If the Fair is worried, there must be something to worry on someone told me in their own words. Smart thing too that the Fair did that as two trees went down on the property or part of the trees and one severely injured one of the people who works the fair. Luckily no one else was walking through that area near that gate when that tree came down. His trailer was parked near the spot as he works the fair, otherwise there would have been hundreds, thousand of people in the general vicinity. The Fair Grounds are beautiful when the Fair is not in town as it's the site of the NC State Flea Market and it's a fun place to walk around on a Sunday under huge Oak trees providing shade on a hot summer day.

Cranky sent me the wind speeds as I had asked him on Friday. Impressive what the wind and gusts were that brought down huge trees and added in the death toll from Michael. I believe five people in Virginia died which is just so sad as they should have seen this coming as we talked about it online for days, however did the message get out to the media I wonder?

https://twitter.com/crankywxguy If you like longreads and you obviously do as you are reading this.. check out his blog. Spoiler Alert it's longer than mine. He has much good information to share.



Those are strong winds.
They caused death and destruction.
But the talk was mostly about where landfall would be...
... but people died far away from Mexico City.
Far from the Florida Panhandle.


So there are just some things I don't understand.

They didn't evacuate a Florida State Hospital which is used for mental health patients who mostly have been committed put there against their will and I'm sure there was some logic and they "thought they'd be okay" but they weren't and so they were dropping food and water by helicopter down to them for days. Seems odd. Strange story. Didn't they  know that it could easily be cut off and with the watches and warnings up for this storm when it was a Potential Storm why did they not evacuate them before or have more supplies?

https://www.thestate.com/news/nation-world/national/article219837535.html

Much I don't understand about how things work with regard to warning people of inland dangers from landfalling hurricanes and the NHC's refusal to update their cone to show inland dangers or flooding potential is just lame. They do a great job in general under difficult circumstances but when you ask them to modify the Scale they use and the cone they refuse saying it was "confuse people" even though these same people are on Facebook and Twitter that updates their format every month and people get used to it. They truly act like that old guy driving along in an 1970 Datsun because they refuse to sell it going 45 mph on the highway because the speed limit is 55 MPH listening to Iron Butterfly on a cassette player that they had to install when the 8 Track died on them sadly.

I get it. I hate when my phone says it wants to do an update. But it's part of life and it's time for the Cone to be updated. Again possibly put the cone over the satellite image and put an old fashioned symbol for flooding over the area that may lose all their crops, homes, farms, businesses and where many may lose their lives because they thought they would be fine because they were not "in the cone." Life will go on really and it will be a better product.

I'll write a full post tomorrow on the tropics and an update on Michael as in what was done right and what was done wrong that hopefully we can learn from and update the way we do things and do it better the next time around. They learned after Sandy they needed to put in good graphics showing where flooding would occur and they have put out some great products, but they are not on center stage and the only thing that gets shown in the media is the cone so it's time to update the cone. I'm pretty sure no one at the NHC is still using an old flip phone or refusing to update their iPhone so why not update the Cone?



Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter

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Friday, October 12, 2018

Hurricane Michael. Tropical Storm Michael. From Florida to North Carolina. Some Thoughts, Links, Discussion. Hurricane History of October Category 4 Hurricanes. 1921 Tampa. 1954 Hazel. 2018 Michael.



I took a break from hurricanes and went to the store today.
Michael is no longer a designated storm.


Look at that long front.
Leslie is still there.
So is Nadine.
Caribbean has a yellow circle but slim chances.
I do believe we will have another storm.
But we can talk on that another day.
Currently we are in clean up mode.
And getting back to normal life.
And giving charity.



I'm going to be honest. I need a day or two off to breathe again. Michael was exhausting. After days, weeks or waiting for him to form after Kirk fell apart and pressures began to lower in the Caribbean and the pattern screamed for this to happen before the models narrowed in on the specifics we have all been watching Michael.




Mike spoke briefly from Talladega this morning. Often I watch it like a Millenial, I wait for it to be complete then sit back with a cup of coffee and enjoy it as it rolls. Love listening to Mike talk as he talks slower than me but possibly talks longer. One can only wonder where he got that gift of gab from but Thank God he's got a very good analytical head on his shoulders and the talk is usually dead on and just what we are wondering on. Listen in a bit if you want. No that's not Mike, it's the dog he bought for his daughter who wanted one bad. He's a great father, any pet would be lucky to land in that family with his daughters and extremely patient, wonderful wife/mother. The dogs name is Louie. Funny but I had a dog named Louie once too. This one seems less hyperactive and friendlier.

I figure we all need a break from nonstop coverage of horrific images coming in with news anchors seeming surprised and shocked. It's shocking, I've seen it and lived it but I don't understand the surprise other than we love to live in denial and refuse to believe our beautiful paradise can be ripped to shreds by a fast moving Category 4 Hurricane. Things you may know about me if you are a new reader is beyond the love of everything hurricanes and weather related I'm a Miami Historian who has spent years studying in detail Miami's history as well as much of Florida's history. I have done extensive research, given lectures and worked with one of my favorite people who happens to be one of the best historian's ever Dr. Paul George who taught at Miami Dade College. He has literally walked over every inch of Miami and South Florida I am sure and can tell you what some Indian Chief or General chasing the Indian Chief ate before going into battle. He is awesome, one of my favorite people and a good friend. No one should be surprised that a fast moving Category 4 Hurricane could do something like this to a small beach front town along the edge of the Gulf of Mexico. This is prime hurricane country, however hurricanes like Michael don't come along often and during those 20 or 30 or 50 or 100 years we forget it can happen anytime in any given year when the meteorological conditions are just right for such a horrific event. Truth is living in denial is usually a good idea, because if you sit and worry on the randomness of a little girl dying from debris hitting her in the head in Georgia far from Mexico Beach you'd go crazy or at least have heavy depression. Horrific things happen. Feel free to insert another more coarse word, I'll stick with horrific today.


This is not new.
It's not Global Warming.
Global Warming is a thing.
But this is weather at it's meanest.
Plain and simple.


1954 Hurricane Hazel in October...
...slammed into the NC SC Coast as a Cat 4.
The damage is totally the same.
Hazel caught a cold front like Michael.
Apparently that's how storms get deep inland to Raleigh.


Trains came off the track


Homes along the ocean were pounded away...
...but horrific storm surge.


Look familiar?

Below is a picture after the Category 4 1926 Miami Hurricane 





If you click on the images you'll see the same destruction.
Category 4 Hurricanes are bad.
Almost nuclear in ways.
Michael was a borderline Category 5.

So in 1926 a Category 4 Hurricane came out of the West Indies in the middle of September and slammed into Miami Beach, Miami and being a very large hurricane size wise it also slammed into Hollywood Beach in Broward County. Being a strong, hurricane moving tediously slow compared to Michael he punched it's way deep into South Florida slamming into and tearing apart all of the beautiful little Boom Towns that were springing up across the tropical landscape.

Some great books on that storm and many others besides Katrina and the 1935 Labor Day Hurricane. They all show the reality of Hurricane Andrew developing fast after days of doing nothing, rapidly intensifying and taking a track towards horrific devastation. And the good news is you can buy your dream house along some part of the Florida or Gulf Coast or North Carolina Coast (spoiler alert it's cheaper in NC) and live there a good ten years selling it for good money and moving away and you may never have gone through such a hurricane. A few weak tropical storms or hurricanes slide by and you clean up the yard a bit, and life goes on and you get lucky.

I tell people when I lecture all the time "you could have been born in early 1966 after being conceived in those days after Hurricane Betsy when your parent's power was out and lived your whole life in Miami without ever really seeing a huge hurricane. Then you move off to the University of Florida and take a job in Seattle and move away and you would never have seen such a hurricane. Everywhere you go people say "wow you must have seen big hurricanes down there" and no one believes you really didn't because everyone knows Miami has Hurricanes the University of Miami Football Team* is called "The Hurricanes" but no you did not see such a hurricane. In 1992 you would be watching it unfold in Seattle worrying about friends and family in Miami at the age of 26 years old and had lived your whole childhood in Miami and never seen a hurricane up close and personal. Denial is easy in a land where hurricanes threaten but hardly ever make landfall as a real Major Hurricane.

So don't go complaining why would anyone build a house down there by the water because it's not your job to complain or ask or wonder.  Crap happens everywhere and a lightning bolt can strike your house far from earthquakes and hurricane country and burn it down to the ground. You decide where you live and live your life and hope a plane doesn't fall out of the sky on your home whether it's at the ocean or far inland. People who lived in Mexico Beach had a good quality of life and they were living on a part of the coast where people always think they are safe from huge Cat 4 Hurricanes that usually go East towards the Big Bend of Florida or West towards Mississippi and Louisiana. Tampa Bay has that same set up but in late OCTOBER of 1921 a huge Category 4 Hurricane caught a cold front and veered into not away from Tampa Bay and yeah you get the idea. My family lived in Tampa in 1921 and my Grandma told stories and was always terrified of "those terrible storms" every year watching the weather and the news and the sky and the clouds.


I have to tell you October Hurricanes deliver a big punch.
Hurricane Sandy was a late October Hurricane.
Hurricane Mitch was an October Hurricane.
Hurricane Matthew was an October Hurricane.
Both of those M Canes were Cat 4 and Cat 5.
Much like Michael also a Cat 4 in October.


In Raleigh....
Damage was mostly light.
Unless a huge tree fell on your house.
And some huge trees did fall in Raleigh.
I believe Matthew was stronger here damage wise.
Neighboring cities lost more trees and power.
Carolina Inn one of my favorite places to go...
... lost a huge oak more than 150 years old.
That oak made it through Fran and Hazel.
Not used to seeing the building like that.


Usually the tree frames the view.


We went there for our Anniversary a few years back.
Some beautiful places around this area.

Note the Inn has a back front...
This is the Street Front.
It's a big property.
Restaurant, bar, events.
It's Tar Heel territory.
When my daughter was at NC State.. 
..we didn't go there much ;)
Big rivals.
If you are ever up this way check it out.


Jim Williams is back home.
He was in the edge of the eye.
We are good friends on and offline.
I'm glad he chased this hurricane.
He collects data he shares.
He is a Hurricane Historian among other things.



He showed this on the air...
...shortly before he went off the air..
Whoosh in real time.
The connection went dead.
I knew he was okay.
He is cautious when chasing I know that.. 
Check out his site and you might want to donate.
His truck he uses for business had some damages...
..that he'll have to repair.
But he's good.

To donate to support his work and site.



And life goes on.
The NC State Fair goes on.

Cranky on Twitter who I like to call CW..
Is awesome and almost always right.
No one is perfect. He tries.

After a hurricane we all discuss it like post game talk.
But it's not a game to us...
..and we try to figure out what we can learn.
Knowledge is power.
The discovery process in science is important.
It's how we learn.
He's a good online friend.
This is what we do... 
... we live, breathe and talk weather incessantly.
Especially Weather History.

You want to talk Global Warming? Good.
You want to talk POLLUTION.. Very GOOD.
Hurricanes have always happened.
Category 4 Hurricanes in October have always happened.
Ask any survivor of Hurricane Hazel or the Tampa Bay Hurricane.
And way back in the 1500s and 1700s and before that.
Mean, horrific hurricanes came out of the Caribbean in October.
And the Atlantic.......October Gales.

Example of discussing Michael.





He is who he is... 
Gives accurate weather information.

If you want some comedy relief here??
Let's look at Leslie.
Still there....
Nadine too but she's forecast to die... 
.. could she come back to life?
Shrugging Shoulders... time will tell.

Leslie's track so far.........


She's good at staying alive.

I guess she's kind and doesn't want to make landfall either.

Some good stuff online.



Check him out @gdimeweather on Twitter


I'm cooking for Shabbos..the Jewish Sabbath on Saturday.
7th Day Adventists do it on Saturday too.
Had a lot of friends in Miami who were.
Making Turkey wings.. big ones.
Sweet Potatoes.
Soup before that course.
Fish and salads before that course.
It's what I do...
..and tomorrow I will rest.
And walk around enjoying the beauty of Raleigh today.

Then......we go to the Fair.
North Carolina State Fair.
Nothing could be finer.

Besos BobbiStorm
Much love..
@bobbistorm on Twitter
Ps Sorry for any typos.
I'll fix them later.
I'm exhausted.
But loving the cool weather and blue skies in Raleigh.
I feel bad thanking Michael for it but he did usher in Fall.






I'll be honest I don't go every year...
....but going this year!


Last year's video but it's the same every year.


I don't eat so much of the food obviously...
Some......
I don't do the big rides.
I walk around and enjoy the shows.
I take pictures.
I just breathe it all in...
It's awesome.

We all need some awesome...
...after Michael.
The name will be retired.
Wonder what name they choose next?
Hmnnn