Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Wednesday, September 20, 2017

Updated. Major Hurricane Maria and Puerto Rico... Then Where Does Maria Go NEXT WEEK... Jose Looping.. Lee Out There Somewhere

A look at Cat 5 Maria



You rarely see a hurricane such as this one.
This year oddly we have had several.

I will be offline until Saturday Night for the Jewish High Holidays and the Jewish Sabbath which is over on Saturday at sundown. I'm not 100% sold on any one solution. The models that today say Maria will not regain Major intensity said less than 48 hours ago that it would. Until Jose is either gone or has fallen totally apart I cannot say for sure what will be with Maria. I can say that it should pull North sailing past South Florida (they will be happy to wave goodbye) and it could come awfully close to the coast of the Carolinas. With any luck it will be picked up by a frontal system and taken out to sea. Should that front not grab Maria, then we may have to deal with Maria down the road. Due to upwelling with cooler waters due to Jose continually looping over the same waters the fuel is not currently there for Maria to regain Major intensity. Things often change. And, some shear my exist down the road for Maria. 

Please refer to the National Hurricane Center for all information as they are the bottom line. But as always for more information go to Spaghetti Models online as Mike has a pleuthora of information be it loops, maps, models and the whole enchilada. I'll be back refreshed and ready to talk about Maria and any other tropical systems we have to deal with down the road. And, again we are watching an area in the SW Caribbean carefully to see if anything might develop there. It's a favorable area for this time of year and convection has been congregating. 

As for the damage from Maria .. power is out, people have lost their homes, their rooftops and mud slides have created havoc, destruction and probably sadly death. It is what it is... it's another of the 2017 Category 5 Hurricanes that have made landfall.  Add in the earthquake in Mexico City where they are still looking for survivors. I'll be adding my prayers, for what they are worth, and giving charity to the groups who help survivors of the storms and earthquakes. Be well and may we have better news to talk about down the road then the trio of Category 5 Hurricanes that made the 2017 Hurricane Season historic. 



Models

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Generally good.
Some concerns there..
Intensity models below:

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It stays strong and then weakens some.
However...
Models are horrible at intensity forecasting.
I'd expect it to intensify in the short term.

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A frontal boundary begins to approach.
Late down the road.
That would cause some shear.
IF timing is off...
It misses the front.
A ridge builds in above it.
Due to that "however"
I do think Maria could get close to the coast.
The high pressure ridge may strengthen.
I'm talking way down the road.
We have to watch the high pressure.
Best place is on the WV Loop above.

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Jose and PR





This highest elevation in Puerto Rico is 4,393 feet. There are mountains along the backbone of the island. And, Hurricane Maria is tracking across the width of the Island and as Maria is a storm small in size the mountains will have a larger impact on her than had she been huge in size such as Irma. On one level the mountains weaken Maria some, on another level small systems ramp up in intensify fast so it may be a temporary weakening not to celebrate about that much. Once back over warmer water, being a compact hurricane, it should become a Cat 5 again soon. And, it will in the most simplistic way in the short term follow Jose so where Jose goes so should Maria go. However, I know there is always a however, rarely does a hurricane exactly trace the track from the one that went before. Jose opens up the door for Maria to escape North and let Florida continue their long term clean up from Irma. However, how close Maria comes to the East Coast will rely on how wide of an opening Jose will make for Maria. Think of this like two children playing in the woods, the first one leaves painted rocks with arrows to show the one behind it which way he went.  But, will Maria follow exactly or will Maria do what's best for Maria. Again..... Hurricanes try to stay alive and away from high pressure following Low Pressure (In this case Jose) so what the High Pressure does also has it's own part in the future track of Maria.

(IN ADVANCE... there may be some typos as I am proofing this after I go shopping for the Jewish Holidays and I'll update later this afternoon. Sorry for any mistakes but I just got back from Florida and are still unpacking and rushed for time... )




While you have this time to celebrate not being a Category 5 before she becomes one again I might suggest to get to know Mike's Spaghetti Models better. There is so much information there on that site that you could spend days getting to know different parts of it. And, yet most people go to the main screen and what the main screen at the top shows is the basics. We have two Hurricanes in the Atlantic both affecting land as I type this and Maria may go where Jose has boldly gone already.  However, Maria has always been pretty direct in movement and intensity whereas Jose has been a looper. If only the weather from Jose would say offshore as neatly as this cute graphic below. I mean really does Hanna-Barbera make the graphics for the NHC? Sometimes I wonder... note the map below and compare and contrast.



There are many satellite loops on Mike's site.
The water vapor loop is below.


Maria will want to go where it's moist.
It's tropical after all.
Away from the dark black...
..or the muddy, maroon reds.
Maria is cut off from Lee.
You can see that above.

I'm not going to go deep on the NHC discussion this morning or their guidance package. For now this is straight forward and simple. The one thing we have learned, repeatedly, this season is the 3 day product is good and the 4 and 5 day produce it iffy; that continues with Maria . . . You can read the discussion yourself. I'm posting the "main points" you need to pay attention to as there are no surprises in the discussion other than we are not sure what Maria does down the road ... but we have a general idea. It follows Jose. We have been saying that for days. 



So let's look at Jose. Remember we were talking for days that New England might not escape totally from Jose without dealing directly with weather impacts? So yeah... that happened. Rather than Jose going out to sea (we didn't expect that) he is looping, again and again. However at that latitude his wind field spreads out (as we have said incessantly already) and his weather is far from the "center" of Jose so ... that happened. Tropical Storm Warnings for parts of New England. And, note we are not saying the "center" of Jose is making landfall but he is sort of blowing windy kisses towards Nantucket.  The graphic that shows this best is not the NHC cone. Doesn't get much simpler than that and a really cute, smart guy once told me to Keep it Simple Silly and I am... so Jose is blowing kisses to Maria and Maria wants to follow Jose. Plain and simple. Well........for now. 


The typical cone.


As usual....
How close does it get to the Carolinas.
Then how close does it get to ???

I really dislike the NHC cone.
So let's look at a map from Canada.
Canadian Hurricane Centre.
They do their own graphics.
They are better.
Sorry just telling it like it is...


This is a map.
It shows details.
It's got a cone.
The middle of the cone
Details.
It shows Jose .. up North.
It shows Maria...down South.
It shows Maria following Jose.
Nuff said ... for now.

As for our looper Jose.
He does what he does best.


Yeah... 


Go to NHC site.
Read all about that graphic.
Main issue here is below.



I and everyone else online who does what I do has been telling you for days that Jose may impact Southern New England (including Cape Cod) and there would be beach erosion along the beaches of New Jersey. And, NHC discussion has tried hard to direct Jose out to sea and each update wanders back and forth slowly trying to get the forecast correct. As I have said before over and over a looper always loops and it does so to stay alive. If you were dying in the desert while trying to get from point A to point B you would not be following the map the NHC put out for you but along the way trying to find water to stay alive. And, that is what Jose is doing... he's knocking on doors of closed gas stations along the way trying to find water and in this case water would be gas for him to keep on going, looping and looping until one day... finally he goes out to sea or gets exhausted from looping. I'd say water temperatures will be impacted however he is already looping in cold waters and always walking the line between tropical and subtropical so that's a mute point. 

One thing I have learned this Hurricane Season is less people than I thought actually go to the NHC site and get to know it. As I said earlier, Mike's site is rich in details, yet most people just look at the front screen as it if's a Snapchat image getting ready to look at the next image. If you don't understand that, you may not have a Snapchat account. But you get the idea and now days people go to other sites that repackage the graphic from the NHC and put pretty graphics of their own  and then the average Joe moves on and checks out the Mexican Earthquake and to see who #Rocketman is and if we are or aren't going to war with Korea or if there was a terrorist attack in Europe or why Jimmy Kimmel is trending in Twitter. 

Part of the problem is the NHC as they move so slowly in a fast paced world they almost become irrelevant as they refuse to stay relevant and timely. In a world where Joe Jr can go online and see the actual data from the recon plane and find out fast that the pressure in Maria has been dropping down below 909 MB they have no time or interest in waiting to see on the next scheduled advisory the NHC will bring up the winds. They get it... the pressure goes down and the winds go out and most likely the NHC will put out a special update and by that time they are sadly irrelevant for those who are most interested. And, many aren't interested they are checking out celebrities and watching Netflix and keeping up with Maria on Snapchat. It's a fast paced world and we move even faster than a New York minute these days and that includes baby boomers like me who talk to my kids on whatever social media they are using and that's a fast moving target itself.

They are the bottom line and their work hard on their site to explain how it works. Why don't you study it over the next few days while Maria begins her northward trek. I don't think there are youtube tutorials but you never know. 


The next part is finding other voices you trust online, as it has become apparent to me that most people just repost something their friend sent them or share on Facebook what their Aunt Martha posted. There are great sources, good sources, okay sources and "oh my gosh what is he saying" sources. There are people posting great graphics and doing graphical shoot outs with models to see who best can show you the model. Sigh....... go to spaghettimodels.com and see what works best for YOU. But, if you are going to really follow someone's advice make sure they really know what it is to be in a real hurricane. A hurricane, a Major hurricane, is NOT a snowstorm or a Noreaster or a Winter Storm. It's a whole different sort of animal and unless you have been in one and watched it rip parts of the roof off of one house, leave another mostly untouched as a large flying object did not knock the shutters off your friends house but yours went flying in the wind ... they are clueless. They are good with graphics and great with computer programming and they have studied the details in college and aced courses but until they have been out there like Cantore or Goodloe they are merely watching an interactive video game. They may be great at playing the game but they don't feel it inside ... they can't feel the tremor of the building under their feet, the pain in their ears as a hurricane brings low, low pressure nor the sound of the roar of the wind over the nonstop rainbands slamming into the house they pray is holding together.

And for anyone who says "the Florida Keys" are just fine they have to clean up I'll add get a life or wake up and smell the coffee. I'm sorry there are stuctures standing and that all traces of life were not erased but spoiler alert those homes that don't look so bad from the air or as you drive by have all been damaged. Even the nice, expensive white boxes on pilings meant to withstand a Cat 5 need repair. Some trailers were smashed to smithereens and their debris smashed into another home that is badly damaged and others oddly look just fine. It's as if Irma was a tornado not a hurricane. I've seen it up close and without going into details there isn't a structure in the Florida Keys (Lower and Middle Keys) that does not need some repairs and many will need to be repaired and rebuilt or the lot will be sold to someone else who wishes to live in paradise while they move back to wherever they came from before they bought the beautiful cottage on Cudjoe Key or in Marathon. They can fish somewhere else ... And others will stay even if it means facing another hurricane next year. But don't think every thing is hunky dory. Lastly if you do not within 48 hours start ripping out moldy walls, floorboards and panels then you are kind of screwed. And, as the first responders were looking for bodies and being sure you could drive across the highways home no one was allowed in so by now the mold issue is as big as the roof leaking and the windows being blown  out. It's easy to say it's not so bad when you can go home to your nice air conditioned home that has the most minor tree damage and go on with life. Life is not going on so fast in the Florida Keys or Naples as it is in Miami Dade county where gas is available again and power is back on (though I have some friends without power still) and the cell towers are working again. The oak tree was trimmed and the palm tree actually fell over rather then doing it's bending dance but it was a tree trimmer storm and you didn't get the real hurricane. 

As for a voice I like who does easy to understand graphics here is one below. I'll be adding more at the bottom of this blog today and updating at the top. Look him up on Twitter and do not tell me you don't do Twitter. You go to the bathroom and flush the toilet right? It's that easy. Easier than Facebook as it doesn't beg you to post or tell you how people are responding to your posts. Make a name, it takes about 5 minutes at the most. Go online and find what you are interested in and choose your news sites and regularly scan the news and tweets. You never have to tweet, post a meme or show everyone your cat loves looking out the window or that your child now smiles cute. Just do it... it's super easy and you will get news from reliable sources in real time. I follow the Cranky Weather Guy below. He's not all that cranky but he does have excellent information. Maria's future is that easy to understand and you don't have to wait for the NHC (the bottom line) to put out a scheduled carefully worded advisory. When the new models come out... meteorologists update almost as fast as my kids drink cafecito, do their make up or eat their picture perfect sushi in Florida on Snapchat. Trust me Twitter is easy and as Dabub says if you just want to follow him or me you can get information faster, but pretty sure you'll follow more than just me or him. He also has a website, but he's been trying to come back up to speed after Irma messed up his home turf in Jacksonville. http://dabuh.com/forecast/



As for me... 

I have the Jewish High Holy Days coming up tonight and they run through late Saturday. You can Google it but most of you who have followed me over the years know this dance of the Jewish New Year hitting at the same time as the peak of the Hurricane Season. The 1926 Great Miami Hurricane actually made landfall on Yom Kippur that will come along down the road. I am in Raleigh (currently home base) for this year though it seems I'll be back in Florida for the final part on Simchas Torah (most likely) so I'm sort of a moving target this year. I'll be updating after the holiday late on Saturday. I will update later today in between cooking sweet foods and unpacking from my recent trip to Florida.

I learned much on this "vacation" and interviewed many people. When the tropics quiet down I will go long on what I learned. One is that cone needs to go... it doesn't explain the complexities of a hurricane or a tropical system like Jose. This picture was taken in St Marys Florida just North of the Florida Georgia Line and the boats that were washed ashore from the storm surge FAR TO THE NNE of IRMA WHILE Irma was down near Naples still did not prepare anyone from what really happened. There is an eye, an eye wall, storm surge and weather associated with the hurricane that dramatically rearranges the lives of people far from the eye. And in a world where every student of meteorology trying to get his doctorate degree hoping to get a job at the NHC is able to put out elaborate upgraded model versions someone at the NHC should be able to put together a better map with more detail showing you what could happen for people in any particular area. The boat below actually is called the S.S. Minnow... so keep that in mind next time you think you have a cute name for your new boat. There are also sailboats, big ones, wrapped up around the Minnow and the dock is out and until it is fixed no one is taking day trips to the Cumberland Islands. No one I interviewed could remember this sort of damage in St. Marys and that makes sense as Bryan Norcross said that he had never seen on air he had never seen a hurricane like Irma. One of my favorite small towns, trying to pull it together far from the center of the cone that was aimed at the Florida Keys.... Miami or Tampa. Nuff said




Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter. Your homework if you are not already on Twitter during the next few days while I'm dipping apples in honey and eating sweet foods with friends wishing and praying on a good year is to make a Twitter account.

My son who is a Jewish Music Producer and is better at graphics than the NHC put this up and I'm going to use the nice graphic the same way I take from everyone else ... wishing you all a very safe, healthy, happy, wealthy ... creative, sweet New Year. Pray for those that were affected by Irma and Maria and Harvey and please give charity when you can to those in need. The Jewish New Year is going to be 5778. It's a thing...




Sandy Koufax didn't play in the World Series on the High Holidays and well I don't write online about them either... it's a thing. But I will be back and I promise you this Hurricane Season is going well into early November or late October so there are many others to pay attention to and I know you all are on Spaghetti  Models and listen to Mike on Facebook Live so... handing this over to him. I know he's got it... he's incredible.  As for the NHC... fix those cones please....

http://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/13710996/los-angeles-dodgers-legend-sandy-koufax-decision-not-pitch-game-1-1965-world-series-yom-kippur-resonates-today



To better understand this Island that is intricately linked to America you might want to read though this link a bit to learn more about Puerto rhttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Geography_of_Puerto_Rico





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Tuesday, September 19, 2017

Maria Making Landfall .. Jose Staying Alive. Lee Wants to Come Back to Life... Late Night .. Early AM Update.


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Late night update for the early risers. Home now and watching Category 5 Hurricane Maria make her move on Puerto Rico. St. Croix getting slammed now, bulk of extreme winds sliding close by. We will know in the morning just what really happened. Every jog it takes can be the difference between destruction and devastation and yes there is a difference.


Eye passed just to the South of St. Croix.
A matter of degrees.


People are up watching images.
Loops and Tweets.


Another image of how close the eye came.
Highest winds they had?
Will know more later in the day.


Emergency tweets pleading for help...
.. mixed with analytical discussion.


The devil is in the details.
The drama, death and miracles in the details.

Below is an image of Jose and models.

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So far the extreme winds of Jose.....
...spread out are off shore.


Not easy being the NHC.
And that brings up Lee.
Remember I said to watch him...
..he's coming back to life.


Lee needs to be watched.
It may redevelop.
Though it's not moving this way..


Maria is..
.. moving closer to our coast.

Out of respect for the island of Puerto Rico I'm not going to wax poetic on models and speculation for what Maria might do a week away. In the early morning hours as I write this, finally home in Raleigh, I'm watching information come in from the Puerto Rico and praying that as many people as possible were able to find shelter in cement buildings and hide from the wind and run from the water.  Today has been about double trouble in areas not that far from each other. An 7.1 Earthquake hit Mexico City on the anniversary of another earthquake; hours after a yearly earthquake drill held in it's memory to help save lives. Let's hope the drill in the morning helped many get through the 7.1 Quake later in the day. 


What are the chances.


Buildings tumbled down in Mexico.
Buildings are falling apart in PR.

A night we are all humbled...
..by the power of Mother Nature.

In the daylight.
We will learn details.

I'll update after the 8 AM.
And good morning visibles.

Good night...

Stay safe...
Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter

Ps... And people are staying up tonight to watch the Euro model come in. People are waiting to see if this run continues a trend of Maria ending up closer to the East Coast that previous runs. The last Euro showed trouble down the road brought to you by Jose still hanging around interacting with Maria. Jose who is now breaking records for days being a hurricane. And, Maria who is making landfall with a lower pressure than Irma did when it had 175 mph winds. Wrap your head around that...  
















Maria Cat 5 Devastates Dominica Now Cruising on towards Puerto Rico. Very small compact dangerous storm... Jose Going Nowhere Fast But Will Jose Erode the High and Give Maria a Way Out of Making Landfall along the East Coast. If Not... Well Pray Jose Does His Job.


Watching the hurricanes from far away..
..in Ormond Beach.
Always beautiful here.

Maria below is beautiful.
But Maria is deadly.

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Link to Discussion for Jose and Maria.

The main part of the discussion is that Maria is going over warm water with low shear and the only intangible on landfall is if Maria will be going through an eye-wall replacement cycle. That's it and that means a truly catastrophic hit on Puerto Rico unless something unforeseen happens. Although much of PR is built better than the smaller islands,  when you are talking about a buzz saw category 5 Hurricane moving directly over it you are talking about a variety of homes and geography. Granted the metropolitan areas often have better built homes yet they are often built closer to the water and those structures will be dealing with storm surge of historic proportions at the immediate site where the eye wall makes landfall. Up in the hills, mountains and valleys there will be wide spread flash flooding and possibly mudslides.... etc, etc...  What doesn't anyone understand about the word "catastrophic" ??

I've had people tell me they hate hearing that word, it's over used. Well I could describe for you what Marathon looks like and that was North of the eye that ripped apart Big Pine Key and Cudjoe. Marathon in the Florida Keys looks like a nuclear bomb went off .... yet some of the better built properties are still standing. And with all of the military personal and first responders, military aircraft coming in and out it feels like a war zone in all ways. It's bad and Maria will trash PR at best and destroy a good part of the infrastructure at worst. Not to mention loss of life and notice I am not mentioning "death toll" for Irma as it is a moving target. They are still going through home sites, docks, beaches and every inch of the Lower Keys looking for those lost souls who decided to stay and ride out the hurricane. I know that for a fact as my son-in-law was involved in the search ....  The death toll in Dominica will be much higher and I can only imagine what it will be in PR where flooding and mudslides in the interior region could cause massive loss of life. I hope not, I really do but it's about as dangerous as it gets. I know after watching a 185 MPH hurricane this seems "weaker" but weak and strong are relative this year.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT5+shtml/190853.shtml

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT5+shtml/182048.shtml?


What do you need to know?
Maria barely blinked going over Dominica.
Cat 5 cruising along.


NHC going with Left side of track.
This still keeps Maria way off shore of Florida.

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As for No Way Jose...

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Wind Probs offer clues.



I want to be clear here there are watches and warnings along the coastline as effects from Jose could have an impact along some areas. Not the center, there barely is a center as it's more extratropical than not, but winds across a large area will have an impact. Especially as Jose is prone to stalling, looping and not going anywhere rapidly. High tides, riptides and beach erosion are concerns. There may be some delays at airports, etc...  The big favor that Jose will do for Florida if the models verify is that he erodes the Western edge of the High Pressure allowing Maria to escape and go out to sea. Should that not work for some reason and the escape route doesn't appear then Maria would be trapped under a large high pressure and be moved more to the left where she could come in contact with the East Coast ... more likely but not for certain the Carolinas. If the models are correct and the forecast verifies we can thank Jose the way we can thank Cuba that Irma did not hit South Florida with 185 MPH winds... and as the water is warmest over the Florida Straits and the Gulfstream . . . it's unimaginable but possible that it could have been stronger than 185 MPH. Irma was a very rare hurricane with few analog hurricanes that we can even compare it to. Bryan Norcross said on air he had never seen a hurricane like it .... so let that rattle around in your brain a bit.

Maria size wise and intensity wise is much like Andrew and it can wobble a bit due to eye wall replacement cycles. Time will tell but before we obsess on it's long range track let's pray for the people in it's path in the Virgin Islands (it may go to the left of them ... with luck on their side) and the Island of Puerto Rico.  Anyone who stayed up last night listening to live radio reports from Dominica with the Prime Minister posting reports until his roof tore off and he had to be rescued in the lull during the eye knows what the people of Puerto Rico are really facing.


I want to remind people "Lee' is out there.
Remnant sort of low.
Downgraded. 
Still there.
Most likely goes North.
With a name or without one.


There is also an area of convection....
...in the SW Caribbean. 
Bears watching.

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And a wave is out near Africa...
... but we will wait on that for now.

I'm on the road today.
Interviewing some people.
Documenting damage.
Obviously enjoying the beach.

I will update later today and tonight.

Not much more I can say.

Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter
Faster updates in real time on Twitter.

Check out Spaghetti Models for more information












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Monday, September 18, 2017

UPDATED 8 PM Category 5 Hurricane Maria Intensifying... Aims for Islands and PR. Jose Being Jose.. Off shore but difficult and Lee Downgraded But Still There. Maria Forecast to Make a NNW Turn After PR.

8 PM
160 mph.
Cat 5

As I've been saying it would be...
Dominica in the cross hairs.

5 PM
Discussion from NHC regarding Jose.
They don't say "Fujiwara"
But they do say it's drifting S or SW


The cone shows the loop...
Let's call it a loop.
It might become more.
Discussion below from NHC

"The trough is then expected to lift out, leaving Jose in
weak steering currents and causing the cyclone to drift to the
south or southwest at the end of the forecast period."
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By going S Jose can survive and thrive.
Going North he dies out.
There's a front..
..time will tell.
Kind of text book classic Hurricane.
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5 PM Discussion.
"It should be noted that the despite the great intensity of Maria,
the hurricane force winds are currently confined to a small area
near the eye. The radii forecast assumes that the 64-kt radii will
not expand significantly during the next 36 h. However, if an
expand to an area larger than forecast" eyewall replacement cycle occurs,
the hurricane-force winds could

Major Hurricane Maria is a deadly Major Hurricane that could, as I said earlier, become a Category 5 Hurricane.

Compare and contrast with the earlier 2 PM.




Intensifying.


Warnings up for Islands below.


Note the paths criss cross
Irma goes left.
Maria going right.
If Maria follows the forecast.




We all are hoping Maria does that jump right.
Heads NNW after the Islands.
We thought Irma would do that too...
Personally until a Hurricane is North of me.
I don't let my guard down.
Especially a complex forecast.
But Florida should be able to breathe..
Breathe easy soon....

Maria breathing beautifully.
On her way to Cat 4 or more.
Is Cat 5 possible?
Possible.


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Watch that tiny eye pop out.

Models as of 2 PM
For MARIA


AGAIN.
ALL models turn Maria before Florida.
Not all miss the Carolinas.
Most follow Jose....
... she wants to dance with Jose.
Does she do a Fujiwara?
Time will tell.

Below we see JOSE
Models


Yeah....
4th and 5th day never consistent.
A looper always wants to loop.
Again they loop to stay alive.
Jose has always been a fighter.

Good graphic.
Spaghetti Models shows it.


A good loop to rely on.
It's a short term loop.
Not 192 hours out.



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11 AM Discussion for Jose.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT2+shtml/180849.shtml Much talk on riptides and the closeness of Jose yet the problems he is having regarding dry air and shear and looking not so tropical.

Lee hanging on as  tropical depression. Sort of a back burner story. Don't forget about him.



Regarding Maria.

Maria is now a Major Hurricane.
Rapidly Intensifying.
Discussion 


Forecast to be a Category 4 at Landfall.
NHC is usually conservative.
I'll leave the possibility there of Cat 5.
Watch it carefully.

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People on the East Coast worrying on Jose.
So showing the cones for Jose first.



You can see Jose at the top of the screen caught up in a battle with shear dealing with lower water temperatures and Maria center stage headed into the Islands. I want you to notice the Upper Level Low to the West of Maria and a cluster of convection down in the Caribbean near Central America. 


The above image is Jose off the coast of the Carolinas. This site https://www.windy.com shows the winds much like Earth Null shows the global winds, however windy tends to be more colorful. Below it shows Maria and the reason I put them up in this format is to show you the comparison of size. Maria is a smaller storm size wise and can easily ramp up and go through a rapid intensification phase (aka RI) prior to landfall. This is a dangerous set up for Puerto Rico and the islands that already hosted Irma on her way to Cuba and Florida. As Irma already trashed many of those islands there isn't much more Maria can do other than toss her trash around and batter already weakened structures. Seriously this is a bad set up and Irma did stay to the North mostly of Puerto Rico. Jose is forecast to have a more direct impact on Puerto Rico. Again we are talking forecasting not a done deal and storms can be fickle. Jose has been more fickle than Maria; Irma was extremely stubborn on taking the lower, west side of her cone always. We will soon see what Maria does when she makes landfall. Note the track of Irma takes her South of the Virgin Islands however they will feel some impacts. 


This is just ONE forecast.
The Euro.
Showing 2 threatening systems.


The map above is a forecast.
Wednesday according to EURO.

Below is Earthnull.



A really great site.

Close up passage of Maria through, over the Islands.


And then the later forecast.
This is the official NHC forecast.
Skeetobite does their own maps.
But it IS the track from NHC.
Note the pull NNW



The above link is to the EURO model that is advertising some interaction between Jose and Maria and the last frame at 192 HOURS out (far away... things change... not a for sure) show a fujiwara dance going on between the two. You see Irma off the coast off the SE coast and if you squint real well and make your screen larger you can see that small bubble off the coast of Carolina is Jose. Jose seems to get looped into the Outer Banks.  The momentum seems to spin Maria out to sea. According to the EURO.  Again hit the forward tab on the loop and you can watch it in action. I am very, extremely weary of a 192 hour forecast, but this is what everyone is talking about. With Irma they had problems getting her track down within five days so as far as that 192 hour image... take it with a lot of salt.



It's not that I don't believe in the possibility of interaction or as we call it Fujiwara where two systems interact and swirl around the other. It's just rare and often forecast and often it does not pan out. In 1926 there was interaction between a weaker storm and the Great Miami Hurricane. In this sort of dance the stronger partner leads, wins out and the weaker storm gets spun away. Several days before the Category 4 1926 Hurricane made landfall a storm warning was issued and people in Miami were warned to prepare for a tropical system. Nothing really happened as the storm ended up looping back down towards Cuba. Several days later when Miami was warned again to expect a large West Indies Hurricane people took it with way too many grains of salt and didn't worry enough. Earlier in that year a large hurricane missed Miami and made landfall to the North of Miami and they got the fringe effects (much like this year with Irma hitting to the South) and got basically a tree trimmer hurricane. It made a mess but everyone was safe. So feeling they knew all about hurricanes and they weren't much to worry on but more so to clean up after .... then the next storm didn't show up they were tired and weary of being told hurricanes were knocking at their door. Big mistake. 

You think 2017 is bad?
Look at the tropical traffic jam of 1926.
Note the green line that goes yellow.
Then hooks SW along the FL Straits?
That storm was pushed away by the outflow...
..of the 1926 Hurricane.


Again the stronger storm wins that dance.
See the two storms below.

Tropical Storm September 11-17 coming up from Cuba towards South Florida does a U turn and goes back fast.

Category 4 Hurricane September 11 - 22 cruising along on a steady WNW course; a large hurricane size wise with a huge outflow pushing everything else out of it's way on it's course for Miami.


It's really not that uncommon in busy years.
Stronger storm wins.

But I do want you to notice Lee... downgraded and still out there despite being downgraded. Usually when we see a storm downgraded it usually falls apart and goes away. Lee has not and that makes me continue to watch his remnants... just in case. It's a crazy year.


Wide view above.
Do you see any red in Jose?
I do in Lee...
Spinning red in Maria.
Jose beautiful to look at ...
..but losing intensity.
You can see that below as well.


Big white swirl in the Atlantic.
Jose... always trying to stay alive.


Lee...downgraded.
Visible center ..
Naked center.
Convection to the right of center.


Again Maria and what's left of Lee



What is left to say?


Maria currently is taking the lower road into the Islands and currently Dominica, Martinque and even Guadeloupe are in it's path. It is then forecast to take on the island of Puerto Rico as an EXTREMELY DANGEROUS MAJOR HURRICANE. I cannot stress this enough and if it continues to intensify it could go all the way to Category 5. A Category 4 hurricane would do catastrophic damage to Puerto Rico and that means structural damage not tree damage. Think Irma in the Lower Keys not Irma in Miami... think bad, really bad. It is then forecast down the road to pull more to the right and aim it's fury onto the Bahamas. As things stand now, Florida is not as much in danger as it was from Irma but it is too soon to say that any track is set in stone. Why? Well for one much depends on Jose and Jose has never been a team player. Relying on Jose to do his job in this tropical drama is not something I want to do just yet. I'm more of a show me girl vs a tell me a fantasy and I'll buy it girl. There is too much riding on this and too many people in Florida totally terrified that Maria will follow in Irma's footsteps.

A bigger problem is that many in South Florida refuse to take any tropical threat seriously as they are so done and refuse to entertain the possibility that they could get hit again this season. Look back at that 1926 Hurricane Season I showed above and know it is a possibility. And, despite Maria looking threatening I'm worried on October and later in the season when the Caribbean gets active and cold fronts pull storms up over South Florida.

While the threat from Jose this week has been played up along the East Coast in the media it's possible if Maria doesn't go out to sea that next week we will be dealing with those same cones showing trouble down the road for the East Coast. When I say East Coast I mean mostly anywhere from South Carolina North up towards the usual cities Hurricanes can impact. I'm currently less concerned about South Florida with the caveat that I am not happy Maria took the left side of the last few cones vs the right side. We were talking about the Virgin Islands a few days ago and now we are talking about Guadeloupe that's a big difference.  Also, unlike Irma, Maria is a small, compact hurricane that can easily make turns faster than Irma or continue doing what she has done so far. Stay tuned. And lastly... remember I said there is an Upper Level Low to the West of Maria. That needs to be watched. Oh and convection in the SW Caribbean as we are getting deeper into the hurricane season that also needs to be watched.

sat_wv_east_loop-12.gif (640×512)


Much to be concerned about as we clean up here in Florida and watch Maria from the Carolinas. Jose spins and loops that's his thing. Expect more of the same. Maria has yet to be experienced from a landfall perspective and we will soon sadly see what she does when she interacts with land. Then we can worry later on the whole, Fujiwara dance. I'm worried about Puerto Rico and the Islands, we can worry on choreography later.

Besos BobbiStorm

Follow me on Twitter for faster updates in real time. I'll update later this afternoon. 
Ps... excuse any typos I'll correct later a lot going on where I am and it's a long, long story. 

South Florida is a bit battered but beautiful. Traffic Lights are out in many places and yet traffic is moving along as people go out to shop, to eat and to feel the tropical breeze. Especially those people who have no power... they are out and about eating out and waiting for the lights to be turned back on. In the Florida Keys the lower you go the more it looks like Islands being occupied by soldiers, military personal and people paid to clean up the mess, look through debris for bodies and try to put it back together so that the residents who evacuated can return. The Upper Keys are messy the way they look after a hurricane but not catastrophic damage. The lower you go the worse it gets and it gets worse.... it gets as bad as it can and I'm worried the Islands in the path of Maria will soon know what that feels like as well. A Hurricane Season from Hell. Plain and simple. 






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