A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!
Thursday, October 27, 2016
Hurricane Seymour in EPAC .. Moisture Headed Inland Not Out to Sea. Always watch the Carib in Late Ocotober
Not much to write about in the Atlantic, however there is a storm in the EPAC. I find that interesting for two reasons. One it's a bit late in the year for them to have a hurricane. And the second reason is it's name is Seymour. My father's name was Seymour. I feel like I owe it to him to say something on it...
Also it's worth noting that the moisture from Seymour in the Pacific is going to spread up into the Soutwest vs going out to sea.
Caught up in the zonal flow.
Funny to see a Hurricane mentioned in the Phoenix forecast.
They used to insist they used names common to the tropics.
Have we ever had a Hurricane Norman?
And I'm looking at forecasts for down the road.
There are still some possibilities.
I'll discuss them tomorrow.
Also why we watch fronts this time of year.
And as we move further into Fall we watch them for winter.
But what I find interesting is forecasts vary greatly for winter.
So let's stick to the tropics right now.
Whatever is in the Carib would go NE with the flow.
And there is an area in the Atlantic but it's got many problems ...
Satellites are always awesome to watch.
As most people up north watch the falling leaves.
My Grandma Mary loved this song.
Yet we only saw falling leaves in the movies ...
...growing up in Florida.
Follow me on Twitter @bobbistorm for real time thoughts.
Ps... Really annoys me when Baby Boomers trash talk Millenials.
I remember when they said TV would destroy Baby Boomers.
Well I remember in retrospect as older people complained...
UPDATD NHC Drops 99L to 30% Yellow .. Models Still Show Development. Big, Huge System... In Colder Water. October Maybes..
Note the loop shows 99L and the cold front.
The front is forecast to move through Florida.
It has very little moisture, a dry sort of front.
I'm sure people in Florida will be thrilled.
Up here in Carolina I'm wearing boots tonight.
Maybe taking a jacket with a hood just in case.
99L really spins nicely.
But it has failed to totally wrap.
And the NHC is dropping it's chances 10% at a time.
Note should it look better that may change.
If it doesn't totally catch the front...
...they will change it in real time.
But for now it is forecast to catch it's ticket out to sea.
And even though the odds are down...
...it stood could surprise us and form into something.
Doubtful but they left it at 30% for now.
I want to mention something Matthew related. The Kroger in Raleigh by me has large gallons of water on pallets out for people to buy. Seems people need them in many areas in the affected areas and people are coming up here to buy and taking them back to where they live. All that water yet some small areas still have been told to boil water just in case. Seems odd to see large pallets of gallons of water with no hurricane headed to town. But the after affects of Matthew are still visible. A lot of power trucks around town fixing lights, street lights and working in areas where there was heavy tree damage. Up here every neighborhood has it's own issues tree wise as the suburbs have planted trees and pines that spouted everywhere. Older, beautiful neighborhoods have hardwoods that snap faster and take longer to clean up. And economics affects everything as people in wealthy areas such as North Raleigh have had the trees taken chopped up and carted away and often the landscaper fixed the yard as if nothing had changed. I saw someone rebuilding a stone fence and several roofers working on large homes nearby. In areas where people live from pay check to pay check trees are still down in yards, semi chopped up and moved out of the street. Sometimes you got to drive around a bit to see the damage Matthew left behind. At the Country Club crews were out fixing everything up fast, yet many have not yet been able to put their yard back together again.
And... Halloween candy and costumes are on sale in Kroger Supermarket here for 50% BEFORE Halloween which seems odd. I asked and spoke to a manager. Seems they are not selling well so far and they want to make sure they move them out so they can put up the next holiday's things fast. So they are on clearance sale before the Holiday even gets going. Again people who may have lost work or had to pay out of pocket to take the old Oak tree off their house, fix their broken windows and buy paint and other minor supplies do not have a gold mine to pay for Halloween this year. Many people are buying things and taking them to friends and relatives down near Lumberton who have lost all their belongings and are living in shelters until someone fixes things. A story on the news shows a small Country Club in Moore County is having problems as their private dam that the Country Club owns has to fix it and they haven't done so yet. Obviously that dam affects more than their property.... In truth there are many small private dams and lakes that are in need of fixing as neighborhood groups try to put their lives back together again.
Matthew may be gone but his affects linger on. In Raleigh the 80 degree temperatures are gone and the cold front is moving in. It rained for the first time since Hurricane Matthew was in so the dry air that held in tight after the last front is gone. People are standing in lines to vote as we move fast towards the Election. Life goes on as an old friend is want to say...
You can see the front draped over my house in NC.
You can see 99L out there over a large area.
Taking up lots of real estate..
And the loop below shows the drama.
The rest of this post explains much if you haven't yet read it.
Nice song at the end.
Stay tuned as always I'll update as needed.
Thanks for your patience.
Wasn't feeling well earlier.
That time of year.. change of seasons.
Hopefully not the flu and just allergies.
Please keep reading...
The window for development is slowing shutting on Invest 99L. You can watch on the Water Vapor Loop below the flow to the East across the Country. Behind the Eastward movement is a push from the colder realms....down to the Southeast towards Florida and then out towards the Atlantic. There is moisture trapped or hiding in a bubble just North of the Bahamas. There are many technical scientific meteorological terms I could use to explain this set up but I haven't had coffee yet and they aren't that important. It's more a history lesson than a scientific one. Come back next year or the year after and you will see it again and again. So let's suffice this to say this is a typical sort of climatological feature and they often try to make a run at a name, some fame and a run up the coast. Works easier in other places than where it sits right now. Usually they do not make it as it's a very short timing window and then mixing metaphors the door slams shut. That door is pretty much called Winter. Though still there are areas where the tropics flare up in years when we have both cold fronts and stalled out fronts and the water to the South is still warm. So we watch.
I'm going to update this later today so check back.
Models for this system exist...
Much agreement short term.
Less on the long term.
Much like the moisture at the tail end of that front.
It is forecast to push through.
But it's a moving target.
The other day it said it would rain early in the morning.
Be gone by the afternoon.
Then it said later in the morning.
Last night it said mid day.
Now we are looking at rain in Raleigh at 5ish.
It's a very ISH time of year.
I'll be back later with more insight.
And more definitive information.
It's not bothering anyone.
Well.. perhaps it's bothering a few forecasters.
Look at it.
Bright dot in middle.
Big huge swatch of convection far from the center.
NHC Says 50% #99L Yet Many Think It Looks Better Now Worse. October Ice Cream or Christmas Decorations? Snow Flake Leggings & Winter Fashions. Some Snow in Forecast for Portland Maine with a Tropical Connection
A lot to talk about and yet nothing specific that is hard core or a definitive vs more possibilities. The NHC lowered the chances for development down 10% each of their last two updates and they are now at 50% for the five day. Yet, ironically, now most of the better weather people online feel it looks better not worse. That said recon is still scheduled to go into the area and see what is there, however they can ground that flight anytime they want for lack of interest.
This is the official graphic as of 8 AM.
We still be in Orange shade for October and Fall obviously.
Look at our orange juice loop before reading below.
A low may form but not where nor the kind the NHC was advertising.
Here are some other comments online.
I'll translate that as there is much tropical moisture.
It flows up the canal and around into the developing low.
More heavy rain for Haiti and PR.
Note I say LOW as in the generic sense ;)
Jesse Ferrel still sees Otto forming.
He cites the lightning closer to the center.
Note the center is not the amorphous convection.
But the area very obvious to most of us.
But it's further West than the NHC X
But within the Orange Zone
Truth be told the signature is tighter today than yesterday.
You can see that here below.
Let's look at a close up.
Blue by the way is in style for Winter Fashions.
I'll explain that later. Watch the blue area below.
Visible Loop with no color distractions.
See the twisting and turning on the left side of this floater.
Notice the frontal boundary below:
That is from www.tropicaltidbits.com
It's posted on www.spaghettimodels.com
Rather than get lost in the NHC discussion.
Let's look at Boston NW Forecast Discussion
Again Blue is in style.
Portland, Maine discussion from NWS
Note the phrases . . .
"fairly certain some of the tropical moisture"
Read that above.
The devil is in the details.
"Large Closed Low Over Northern New England"
then.........watch what comes next...
"changing some of the showers in the mountains
and foothills over to snow showers"
Tropical systems provide much good in many ways. Never kill the tropical messenger! A good percentage of moisture from the tropics makes it way up into the farm basket that grows our wheat, soy and corn in America. Some moisture is from snow melt, other moisture is from tropical systems that move up through the Gulf of Mexico and send rain far inland. They transport heat from the tropics to the poles and they often flip the switch from summer into winter somewhere in the middle of Autumn for the Northeast. Even in the Carolinas they make a difference but they do so sooner rather than later up in New England. Go back and look at those models that come dangerously close to New England. Note the NWS discussion discusses the tropical moisture enhancing the front and then comes snow showers with some light accumulation.
October is a difficult time to figure out.
Summer or Winter?
I tried the new Jo Malone Orange Bitters.
Made me want to go home and have an Old Fashion..
I went to the mall to buy some leggings.
Leggings have now pushed jeans into #2 place in the fashion world.
Dresses and skirts are in ...with leggings.
I also like the way I look in leggings.
So it was 87 degrees in Raleigh.
I looked at a white, glittery butterfly ornament.
And then I bought some ice cream.
When God gives you 87 degrees in October..
..you buy ice cream.
The weatherman on air last night told people to drink a lot of water..
..at the North Carolina State Fair.
He suggested staying hydrated with cold drinks..
..no hot chocolate.
Weather affects everything.
I'll make a forecast that this years Winter Fashion Trend.
For women... will be Santa leggings not Santa sweaters.
Perhaps some cute snow flake leggings with a very short jean skirt.
And boots... cute furry boots.
Yes...looking for snowflake leggings.
I did try to find a hurricane pair but nada no where..
Pretty sure a hurricane satellite image on leggings would sell.
I'm watching the tropics ...
...but I'm wondering on winter.
I'm not the only one...
Ps ...Still much to watch in the tropics:
Doesn't OTTO sound like it should be a Winter Storm?
UPDATED!! NHC Drops 99L to 60% Orange Circle ..Cancels Recon Maybe Tomorrow For Otto .. 99L Creating Huge Amounts of Weather But Has NOT Formed Yet..Subtropical Quasi Tropical Storm
NHC drops odds down to 60% in 5 Days.
8 PM came out closer to 7 PM
I'm not surprised.
It still has an orange circle.
Still has a chance to form.
Before a cold front forecast to move down...
...picks it up and takes it out to sea.
Keep reading ..
Only thing I want to add is this loop.
You can see how the energy is oozing North...
Into the general vicinity of 99L
Capped by the dry air to the North.
Something may develop....
Looks diffuse on the loop below.
Hard to define a center.
A broad area of swirling weather.
Again the swirling center trying to form is on the left.
The convection is on the right.
Not there yet.
Sometimes I feel as if I am translating the NHC product to explain what really is going on. That's basically because it's often a puzzle you put together product by product. And that is indeed how a forecast is put together. You don't just look at one picture or roll the dice, you study the situation using various products from various sources. In the end it's not always easy to predict just when a Subtropical system will or won't develop. And often the subtropical becomes a tropical system. In school you got to put a sun on the blackboard if you were lucky for the day's weather or the teacher drew snow on the board. It's not so simple.
This will be a short post as today is a day to watch and wait to see what will happen. The NHC had recon scheduled and then they pulled the plug on that keeping the reservation to go out tomorrow if conditions warrant. Hey I woke up to my local news station showing a graphic of 87 degrees today as a possible record breaking high, the range from channel to channel being 85 to 87 showing how low confidence there is by some on the lower range of the high forecast temperatures. Spoiler alert.. NOT wearing leggings today but the most summery clothes I have in the closet.
8 AM NHC has an Orange X NE of Bahamas
For geography buffs that's the edge of the Sargasso Sea
When things are tropical the flow usually is West.
Around the huge high.
But when you get these subtropical systems they try to go NE
Tropical systems like going North.
They try getting North any way they can.
So this formation ZONE is put out by the NHC.
Somewhere in this red jelly bean a storm may form.
80% chances over the next FIVE days
The satellite image from the NHC is shown here.
Note the 1 is actually down near the Islands.
The X where it is trying to form NE of the Bahamas.
The dialogue that explains this map is shown below:
Note they are discussing what I discussed yesterday.
The heavy rainfall along the Greater Antilles.
Great meaning LARGE in this case.. Hispaniola
Puerto Rico and the North Leeward Islands.
A picture is not always worth a thousand words.
But it is pretty.
Back on Sunday or Saturday Night I wrote...
A monsoonal sort of trof may set up between the two areas.
The ongoing convection in the Caribbean and the area in the Bahamas.
That is what happens often in October.
Eventually the energy from below oozes North.
Slides and wraps it's way into the core area.
In a backward C shape cloud formation.
A subtropical often forms.
If so it would be Subtropical Storm Otto.
And sometimes moisture remains down below.
Cut off from the forming cyclonic system.
And we worry on that another day.
This loop above shows that drama.
The area forming closer in to the Bahamas.
The oozing of energy NE across the Caribbean.
Keep watching you will eventually see a cold front.
Later in the week when I put leggings back on..
The front carries Otto or whatever it is NNE out to sea.
There are a few models that break with the pack.
And bring it close to land in New England.
A lot depends on...
1. IF Otto forms.
2. How Otto interacts with the front.
So as I said today is the day to watch and wait.
An interesting convectional ballet going on in the atmosphere.
I'll be back with updates as warranted.
You can make a donation to help the victims of Matthew easily.
At the local ATM at Wells Fargo.
At Harris Teeter I believe as well.
Several large corporations are pitching in.
And there is always the Red Cross.
Follow me on Twitter @bobbistorm
Ps... Keep watching.
I keep wondering why we don't call them Quasi Tropical Storms ;)
Oh look....they did once upon the time in October...
Location: Miami, Raleigh, Crown Heights, Florida, United States
Weather Historian. Studied meteorology and geography at FIU. Been quoted in Wall Street Journal, Washington Post & everywhere else... Lecturer, stormchaser, writer, dancer. If it's tropical it's topical ... covering the weather & musing on life. Follow me on Twitter @ https://twitter.com/#!/BobbiStorm