Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Wednesday, August 10, 2022

97L Hanging in ...Having Problems. GOM & Carolina Close In Possibilities? Quiet Season Coming Alive or BUSY Season Starting Late? 1992 or 2013? 2022... Only Time Will Tell. Hurricane History


Lazy 97L at 30% still.....
...but could soemthing Close In develop?


Homegrown in GOM or off Carolinas?
Front pushes thru and then collapses...

Being honest here. In order for a tropical cyclone to develop it needs both wind with a twist and convection trying to wrap around the twisting possible center. IF a center forms, the weather wraps, the clouds build up high in the atmosphere and air evacuates, it literally begins to BREATHE, inhale and EXHALE and grow in girth and it attains the name HURRICANE sometimes after looking like a wanting or promising Tropical Storm that took it's own time developing! Or after a promising wave that fizzled the next one develops, or while staring at Africa you fail to notice something sneaky forming close in.

Kind of like that promising kid with intelligence and the ability to get As, who wins awards in school and looks like the perfect kid who will one day become President of some large corporation. You think "wow that kid is going far" and then he ends up in jail for having one of the largest drug operations at college. I'm sure Jeffrey Epstein's parents knew he'd go places and be well known some day. Then there's that quiet little kid who sits in class looking kind of "meh" and uninterested in life, kind of Plain Jane and somewhat boring; you know the last person you'd think would attain fame. And, so it was with Barbra Streisand who a woman I know taught when she was a little girl in Brooklyn dealing with her parents divorce  who didn't seem all that happy or impressive. One day she goes off and follows her dream and becomes "BARBRA!" winning OSCARS and the heart of everyone everofywhere! 

Watching the tropics is kind of like that. 

Kick ass waves come off of Africa with great promise and fizzle away in the dry atmosphere ruled by SAL as they cough their way through the dusty air making it difficult to breathe, develop or even stay alive. Most die off and are nothing more than "Remember Invest 97" or "Remember Debby" that attained a name and then crashed and burned as it's tilted center collapsed, dead on arrival down near Hispaniola! Seriously, Debby broke more hearts than Marilyn Monroe!


Late bloomer Hurricane Harvey, long tracker.

Other times a good looking wave with promise fails to develop and then flares up again somewhere else but fails to develop but then comes back a bit and eventually spins up in the Caribbean or the Gulf of Mexico and everyone is shocked it went the distance and the name got retired. Harvey was such a storm. Camille was such a storm that most maps show began in the Caribbean, but was infact a tropical wave that made it into the Caribbean but didn't find what it needed to develop until late in life and then exploded in the Gulf of Mexico.  Andrew was such a wave also, no one beleived in and almost was downgraded until something changed and it exploded into Major Hurricane Status turning due West slamming into the South Florida area. 


From Force 13 video way below.
From barely there to Cat 5 ...BOOM!



Seriously barely there storm until it went Major!

Sometimes things change. Especially in the tropics.

Wind shear lessens or strengthens, SAL thins out or is reinforced by a new burst of SAL that comes off Africa the same way waves roll off of Africa. 

And often while we are obsessing on tropical waves that crash and burn something develops close in and suddenly a yellow circle pops up in the Gulf of Mexico or off the Carolinas or in the Bahamas and such a yellow circle "could" show up this week. I'm not promising as promises evaporate often like fizzling tropical waves but I am saying the potential is there. This morinng there's a sliver of purple on the map shown below in the Gulf of Mexico.


The blue, purple complex in the MDR is distracting.
Slivers of purple should be watched also.


Instagram from Mike this morning.
Ironically I was looking at the same map.
Candy stripe red in the MDR.
Candy Stripe Red is sexy!
Means... "check it out!!"

So which will it be or could it be both? Or will the next not there yet 98L come to life closer in the East Atlantic or will something close in spin up and surprise us? Well, nothing surprises @icyclone who is waiting in Mississippi for just one of those things to happen. He will travel amost anywhere, but it sure would make life more dramatic and colorful should one come straight to him as he is now is hanging out in Mississippi!

Lastly, the huge debate as to whether 2022 is a BUST as a hurricane season or just a late blooming hurricane season. This has been going on forever this year it seems as many online used the phrase no one in the hurricane chasing community wants to hear "2013 Hurricane Season" and I've been trying not to mention it here but I am today. Again Andrew showed up in late August 1992 after a dull, delayed hurricane season. 

2013 was the worst hurricane season to watch, even worse than 1997 "El Nino of All El Ninos" as at least our expectations were dampened. 2013 kept showing promise, popping off tropical waves with promise that started and suputtered giving more than one tracker headaches and heartburn! 

Could 2022 be that sort of year that delivers one knock out punch to some city where a monster makes landfall and the rest of the year is one huge yawn?  Maybe. But I am not ready to say that as I know CLIMO gets the largest vote and even in the dullest seasons it suddenly jumps up and ACE shows up as intense storms linger a long time as they work their way through the tropics, be they FISH STORMS or Landfalling Monsters. August everything usually comes alive eventually. August 11th is a Full Moon, will that help flip the switch for those of you who believe in those things?

Stay tuned.... only time will tell.


2013 above... start, stop, start, stop.
1992 the "only takes one" example below!


Lots of nothing til late August.........then Andrew.


2017... Horrific Storms.
And Late blooming Harvey was one of them.


Dead looking on August 22nd....
...not so dead afterall as a Cat 4 ..4 days later!


Honestly I have been a fan of Force 13 forever and in these "quiet times" you might want to check out their vast library of videos of varous hurricane seasons. You learn a lot, and one thing especially is not to cancel a season until it's all over. They even go back far into history, 1954 hyperactive Hurricane Season with multiple landfalls on the East Coast lasted deep into December proving it's not over til it's over.


Most of the Ace in one 30 day period.
But busy season running til December!



So stayed tuned! 
Enjoy the quiet times.
It will not stay quiet forever.


What will the 2022 Hurricane Season...
...be remembered for?

Time will tell.........

Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram



























Tuesday, August 09, 2022

97L Far Away. Models A Bit Different... For Good and Bad.... Buy Hurricane Supplies. 2022 Hurricane Season is Just a Matter of Time....

 


Good morning Tuesday!
NHC pulls back to 30%


Mimic shows a lot of moisture out there.
I will say that for the Mimic.


Models have less curvature...
...weaker gets further West.

Basically the yellow status, taken down a notch from orange, means that the models are not as excited about it in the long term. Some lose it, some keep it. For me anything that gets further West is a problem down the road so I'm watching it. But, not all day obsessing on it. It's far away, it's there. Know it's there and there will be more to come. Stock up on basic hurricane supplies you can incorporate into your meals if nothing forces you to use them for a hurricane. Remember it's Hurricane Season.

I'll update later today. I have things I have to do this morning and currently 97L is so far away so I'm prioritizing my life this morning.

Again............Hurricane Season is here, gets more real every day in August so before you remember in September you spent the Hurricane Supplies and "get out of Dodge" money at the track or on a cute snow suit for your winter vacation... don't believe the rumors that 2022 Hurricane Season isn't happening. 

It's just a matter of time.


Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram
Twitter mostl weather and Instagram whatever.

Ps 2022n is an old fashioned Hurricane Season. I said that before and I still mean it. So here's an oldie goldie to listen to...











Monday, August 08, 2022

Updated! Good Evening Invest 97L - African Wave Moving into the MDR! Will Update Later Today with More Model Info and Thoughts on Olivia Newton John


Still 40% Westbound in the 5 day.
20% in the 2 day.


You can see the bright reddish orange blob.
Pretty good when we have a wave with a blob like center.
It's always a good start.
Next wave waiting for take off from Africa behind it!


Models show it Westbound for now...
..with a possible hook, curving some.
Models do show it being strong.
How strong?
Changes on various model runs.
Strong enough for a name.


One model shows a steep curve.
Others don't get that far.
Looks kind of typical so far.

It's been a long day. I meant to get back here earlier but the garbage disposal broke. Olivia Newton-John died after I put her song "I'm alive" at the bottom of my blog earlier. Boy, that really sucks. Honest, I liked her a lot in that way of someone who did musicals that made me smile. She sang beautiful love songs and I probably didn't want to listen to them sometimes when I was in a sad mood or other times in a mood to remember those I've loved. I saw Grease on stage before the movie so tho she was awesome, she wasn't the first Sandy I saw play the role. She was cute, fun and knew how to mix it up. When I lived in LA for a long time in the 80s she starred in Xanadu.  I studied dance when I was younger on afternoons, after school and I love Gene Kelly. My best friend Linda and I would debate male dancers, we both liked Gene Kelly yet her baby sister liked Fred Astaire. I could watch Gene Kelly dance all day and yet there he was dancing with a muse who rollerbladed. How perfectly 1980s that moment was and if you weren't around in the 80s in LA well you may think that's nuts but if you lived in West Hollywood, and I did, you'd know it was pretty fantastically perfect. 


Store in LA looked an lot like South Beach 



I lived on a street down the block from Melrose and she had a boutique on the corner. In the beginning she was there often setting up, working and she'd looked awesome not on stage, not on rollerblades nor a Ferris Wheel but just working in the store setting it up. My ex-husband used to buy me flowers from a flower stand on the side of her shop. Melrose was kind of wild then, much like the way the tropics kind of comes alive in August. Melrose sprung up boutiques and was all bouchie before it was even a word. Colorful shops, colorful people like being on the set of a movie that is being set up for a shoot.  Except every day was like a movie shoot. 

Oh and an old girlfriend out of the blue got in touch with me to remind me we were friends when we were 15 in Miami, yes I knew that and the suddeness of it seemed strange but not surprised. Still sounds a lot as if someone told her to call me, but let's put that aside and yes it was nice to connect even though I was cooking dinner at the time and fielding Whatsapp messages from my brother about some breaking news story.

The truth is this about Invest 97. 
It's got a heartbeat and has had one since it rolled off of Africa.
It has a window where it can develop in the short term.
In the long term it will, mostly likely deal with shear and more negative elements.
An early August Tropical Wave... 
What would you expect?
If it develops faster, it will most likely curve faster.
If it develops slower, it could curve further to the West and clip the Islands.
Who really knows?
It's got a heartbeat.
It's a possibility.

Also looking at a close in storm that could develop as a pop up down the road.
But that road is far away and tonight I'm shocked that I posted an Oliving Newton John song from Xanadu (one of my favorite movies to watch even with it's problematic over produced and undercut scenes because I love it... and the Pan Pacific Auditorium where it was filled near my house. I guess I get muses even before I understood the concept and I love to dance and I love purple. And, I once used a perfume called Xanadu.

So let's see what 97L can do...........

For anyone wondering......... I'm fine, I'm okay. I'm tired and have to stay home tomorrow for someone to fix the garbage disposal it seems.

Stay tuned.
Curtain up, light the lights... the season is about to hit the heights ...or at least we are one day closer to a named storm.


Ps... I'm really a Natalie Wood fan...
...she's dead also.
But oh while she lived... she was the best.
And, so was Olivia doing her thing!
A good song from a classic movie.... pretty sure she's dead so I don't have to worry on that. I'm sorry but really???


More tropics tomorrow.

Let's start over then...........







 


That's the Invest.
Live from the NRL site is an official view.



I owe Mike on this one as I did check to see if we were at 40% in the 5 day before a class I take online at 8:30 AM and didn't notice the designation yet by the NRL. An Invest means there is an area of interest that has been elevated to Invest status for a sort of deep dive into possibilities that this wave could become a closed system with a name. Next name up is Danielle.  Invest 97L is it's current "name" or designation. Early models show it going the distance Westbound  or at least trying. Never believe early model runs but watch them run to run to see the trend in both intensity and direction of track.

Now that we have moved past the basics for those of you who are new here I'm going to give my very early preliminary thoughts. 

Been watching this wave since before it rolled off of Africa. From day one it had a sort of BINGO look to it as if "this could be the one" that gets the season rolling. Always hard to tell early on as many a beautiful wave that looked as if it had a heart beat with a low attached unravels after it hits the cold water and breathes in too much Saharan Dust. And, sometimes we get a wave complex when a fast moving secondary wave slams into a slow moving first wave and other times all indications are that what comes off looking beautiful becomes a dangerous, beauty with a real name not just a number.


I'm always watching.
But I don't invest much into it until....
...it becomes an Invest.


Current view above.



Official NHC 20% in 2 days.
Hmnnn .... 
The NHC seems to be revving it's engine a bit.
40% in the 5 day.

I'll be back this afternoon. I want to see some more model runs. I want to see some data. I want to stare at loops a bit more and get a "feel" for Invest 97L. 

Stay tuned......... 

August 11th is that day when the Atlantic Hurricane Season seems to wake up, spread it's wings and remember it's alive and it's got work to do! Give or take a day or two either way. 

Sweetest Tropical Dreams,
Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram
Twitter usually weather and Instagram whatever........

I'm an 80s girl in a 20s world lol ... Love this song, silly movie and memories of LA Days.

























Sunday, August 07, 2022

African Wave with Low Chances to Develop. Orange Circle MDR. Low to Moderate. Juicing Up the Atmosphere Mostly.

 


Yes I am watching it.
Trust me I am watching it.

Everyone wants a yellow or orange circle to track and no sooner than it's up on their site, everyone starts ripping it to pieces. This model, that model ... I mean Lord have mercy just enjoy something that is out there juicing up the atmosphere that might make it hospitable for other stronger pretenders in late August to develop. Yes, this could get a name and it might not last. Let's be real the Danielle name keeps on going forever it seems. Beautiful name, by the way.


Orange, gold, red is WET!
And, as it bulges North it's taking a bite out of the dust.
More so than ones that stay low and go West.


The GFS sticks with it ...for a while.
Long enough to perhaps get a name.
Or designature as an Invest.
The EURO is showing it the cold shoulder.

I've been kind of missing in action here, but the truth is there's nothing to write about and I don't want to hype every promising wave that falls apart as soon as it hits the water. It's August. Everyone is debating if it will still be a busy season or be like 2013 and no one wants to talk on 2013 around here. 


Lots of nothing.
Lots of unrealized potential.
Chasers were popping pills... 
... of all kind to get through the season.

I'd say this season will be somewhere between a busy season and a slow season. A kind of normal season, hyped up in the preseason yet for someone who lives in a town where a hurricane makes landfall it will be the year they will always remember.

Taking it easy personally. Dog days of summer and I'm not a fan. A good friend who is a kind of Guru said I should go slowly and breathe in my loss or did he say "feel my loss" but either way he knows me and he's right and I need to work myself through not having Sharon around to joke with, complain to and rant when the lady met at TWC doesn't shut up about something stupid or is dressed oddly. Well, okay.. I do have other friends to complain on that as most people round here have strong opinions on TWC. It's not what it once was, that's for sure and more and more I watch other alternatives that show weather live. 

People used to refer to Sharon and I as the "Bobbsey Twins" or "Thelma and Louise" lol and I'm glad she was in my life for so long and you can't go wrong with a friend like that. There were times I might have totally lost it and gone off the rails but she didn't let go. My kids should realize how lucky they are really, and as for her kids ... yes I didn't let go and she was a better mother than she thought she was and that's what friends are for... 

I'll update tomorrow. 
I'd still say watch close in for things that hang down from dangling fronts.
It's beastly hot and there are still fronts moving across the landscape, and that's not good really as we move deeper into the Hurricane Season.

Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram

Ps.... until or if it falls apart... you know I'll be watching it... because that's what we do.
If we just watched the ones the models loved we'd just robots going on automatic.........











Monday, August 01, 2022

It's AUGUST! Still Nothing From NHC But Signs That Tropics Will Heat Up Soon! A Look Back at 1998, Came Alive in August!

 


You know how I love purple splotches.
It's a first step in places to look for possibilities.


A yellow splotch of a different kind.
Again shows some positive signs.
A Tropical Wave worth watching.
Would not bet the farm...
...but a bit of entertainment!


One wave exited Africa being watched...
...another has it's eyes on a future.
One wave, one way or the other.
Will develop this August!
It's just a matter of time.


1998


Fairly busy season.
B storm formed in August.
Followed fast by Charley and Daniell.
Hmnn.....Maybe it's the list here that's the problem.


That's Sharon on the left.
Her dance friend from Israeli Dance...
...at a Dr. Who Convention :)
Having fun!
Looking good!

I want to thank you all for your patience, those of you who read my blog regularly, my best friend "like a sister" passed away earlier in the week and she was buried today. I watched on Zoom. I wrote something for the service that took place in Israel on the Mount of Olives. No, she's wasn't born there nor did she live there but she had traveled there often and she wanted to spend more time there, but Covid came along and she stayed here working. She worked til about 2 weeks before she died of Cancer surrounded by her kids and after seeing a few of her closet friends and a brother from Maine. 

I can really only celebrate her life and give thanks for our many long, long discussions on weather, hurricanes, football, life, our kids and those we loved. I looked through old discussions on Facebook in Messenger today and some WhatsApp messages and I smiled, laughed and peppered in with thoughts on the kids, life and football there were her thoughts on weather, the forecast (forecasts that were messed up badly and those that verified) and we were always running to Publix to shop or to the beach to watch the waves or to follow some wild line of storms which in South Florida is fairly easy to do any day from May through September. She was a good mother, a great friend and she'll be missed. But tonight I only want to give thanks for our 35 years together as best friends, more like a sister. Neither of us had a sister so it was as close as we got... 

Hopefully I'll get back into the routine. Maybe I'll remember to take my vitamins tomorrow. Maybe I'll do some reseach on long range models. Maybe I'll move slowly one step at a time back into life.

At some point I should be in Florida this month but waiting on a baby to be born and figuring out what I want to do and when. 

She had a good life, way longer than my best friend ever who died before she turned 24 years old, she died from Hodgkins Disease. So, really though they both lived lives well lived filled with hobbies, super smart and fun to be with Sharon out lived Linda by many years so personally right now I'm trying to mourn with happiness for a life well lived. 

Sweet Tropical Dreams, 
BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram
Twitter mostly weather, Instagram whatever...

One of her favorite songs, one that James Taylor didn't sing. 
Well, maybe he did but it wouldn't sound the same, that's for sure!



















Sunday, July 31, 2022

Let's Look at 1999 Hurricane Season. Another Season That Picked UP in August & Didn't Stop. Also Horrific Flooding in Kentucky Highlights Dangers of Flash Floods

 


Phil Klotzbach tweeted this tweet about certain hurricane seasons that had no named storms since July 2nd for a 30 day period. It's common for the tropics to go quiet in July. One year mentioned is 1999 a year I have thought on much recently. 


Busy season.

For weeks through July and into August.
Nothing.
Then 4 Major Hurricanes.


This Iconic picture shows storms in a crowded basin!

Yes most of July, Halfway into August.
Nothing.

Inland Flooding and Floyd ....


The flooding in Kentucky hits me hard.
Flooding is the worst!
Every hurricane season there is this risk....
...people don't get.
Not on a beach near landfall so they think they are safe.
Then Floyd, Matthew and Florence came along.



Whether you live in a holler or a river flood basin...
... the risk of Flash Flooding is horrific!!

In 1999 
Miami got lucky. NC did not!

A typical October Hurricane hit South Florida
Actually the Miami area had epic flooding.



But on today's date in history...
...nothing was happening.

That's what I call an old fashioned hurricane season!

June too soon.
July too early.

August Look Out!

Sweet Tropical Dreams
BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on twitter and instagram
Twitter mostly weather.
Instagram whatever.

Ps 

NHC says Nothing for 5 days.


















Friday, July 29, 2022

First Storm August 12th. Late Start to 1950 Hurricane Season. Ended up with 11 Hurricanes and 6 Major Hurricanes. Late Start Doesn't Always Mean Slow Season.



https://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/hurdat/mwr_pdf/1950.pdf The above is a tidbit from this link that discusses the very slow starting, but very busy hurricane season of 1950. Nothing formed, not even a weak storm close in or a very weak tropical storm that lasted a few days in early June. Nothing all through June nor July, but then a wave began to show signs of development.  As you can see below, it was a very busy hurricane season. 


Love this book!


Nothing. The A Storm formed in Mid August and they kept forming and forming for the next two months with some late bloomers going into November. 

Never count out a hurricane season because it seems slow in June and July. In August something catches fire, begins to spin and all the discussion on a busted season is buried in a blitz of Hurricane News and often multiple landfalls. 

In Miami 1950 is kind of legendary for Hurricane King, a small compact hurricane that made landfall and is often refrenced to Hurricane Cleo that also made landfall in the same area of the city. 


Actually made landfall as a small....
....but a strong hurricane!
It gets ignored and forgotten by many.


A typical October track for Cuba and Florida!

Stay tuned.
It's not over til it's over!

Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram