Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Sunday, October 13, 2019

October... Everyone Wants Something Else... Rain, Tropical Action, Tornadoes and Snow ...Dreams of Winter to Come. From Baltimore for Sukkos Holiday

Listen to the video first....
...then keep it in mind while reading below.
It's a prelude to tropical discussion.

Low chances on the Caribbean System....
...and a Mid Atlantic Wave.
Melissa sailing slowly across the Atlantic.
Invest 94L off the coast of Africa.

Another view of where we expect development.

Beautiful view of the Earth.
Note the huge Melissa leaving.
The Big Huge Low picking Melissa up....

Invest 94L off of Africa.

Another view of the huge Low Pressure System 
Over a large part of North America.

The tightly wound wave coming off of Africa.
Invest 94L
Looking like the Nestor name may get used here.

Models show the possibilities.

Most likely this is a classic Fish storm.
But never say never even if it gets the name Nestor.

Olga comes after Nestor.
Remember that.... 
...amazing Nestor could get used before November.

So there we are Sunday evening.
I'll be offline until late Tuesday evening.
On vacation in Baltimore by friends...
....for the Jewish Holiday of Sukkoth.
More on that down below.

It's that time of year....
...rare, really to see such a wave come off Africa.
So it may steal the N name and leave the O name.
For something developing closer in later in the month.
Besos BobbiStorm...
Have a good week....
... keep reading if you didn't read this previously.

Summing it up again here on a video.

New wave, old wave.
It's all tropical rock and roll to me...

* * *

Sunday Morning.

NHC watching stuff
But nothing expected to do much.
And then there's Melissa.
Spinning up in the North Atlantic.
It's that kind of Mid October.

GOES16-TAW-13-900x540.gif (900×540)

Priorities this time of year are all over the place, in between and everywhere. Die hard Tropical Weather people look for development in all the regular places and even Africa if models show possible short term development. Winter lovers are praying for snow while enviously watching snow falling in South Dakota and severe weather people are eyeing Texas for a system forecast to slam into the area bringing cold weather mixing it up with tropical moisture from the Gulf of Mexico that disappointed hurricane people but is feeding the dreams of Tornado chasers.

The much awaited rainfall for the South.

Some Tropical Discussion.

Cranky discussing down the road.
As always... good discussion.

But this time of year it's complicated.
Does it go this way or that way?

Whispers of a Mid Week Storm Coming...

What you have here is a pattern.
Look West towards Alaska to see what's coming.


Yes some models develop something.
And then promptly drop it.
NHC is watching it.

I'll update later today and then I'll be off 2 days.
I'll be back online Tuesday evening.
I'll update this afternoon around 5 or so.
Have some family here in town to see...
... so I'll update then at the top.
Then I'll be back Tuesday evening.
But not promising any tropical action for a while.

Cold fronts promising some rain.
Caribbean Convection 
Westbound tropical remnant waves.
Models don't spin anything up just now.

Everywhere you look someone wants something.... they want the leaves to start turning colors, they want rain in the  Carolinas and everyone seems to want an early Winter. Spoiler alert on the leaves turning maybe next weekend we see some colors in the South as we are enjoying a nice cool down but the real colorful show is up in New England this year. In the Carolinas leaves are shriveling up, turning a dead red then falling every time the wind blows though there are some yellows on Oak trees and a few early Red Maples but it hasn't arrived yet. The lppp drive up to Maryland, except for a random yellow tree, was the same as we had in North Carolina. New England though is filled with color. My brother went to Montreal on a cruise and it's definitely fall there. It's his 2nd anniversary and he and his wife took a trip up the coast before it's too cold for Miami folk to travel Up North. He says he is going to a Chabad Temple somewhere up there near the port.... so guess I'll get an update later this week.

I'm in Baltimore for first days Sukkos that Jewish Holiday that often comes up in the  middle of the some Major October Hurricane and I go off line to sit and dine with fine wine in a Sukkoth a hut we make outdoors... to commemorate wandering in the desert but really is one of those holidays that come during the Fall when you commemorate the harvest, nature and family. In Miami my family built a big sukkoth on the patio by the lake and the star of the Sukkoth are the two fans that keep the wind moving as it's warm there, up here they worry on needing a heater at night though I'm fine with boots and leggings. And an added bonus this year is that I don't have to go offline leaving friends hanging with some dangerous hurricane headed towards landfall. Not this year.... 

Up North Sukkoth....
....down in Miami Sukkoth with 2 fans.
I had a friend in Miami who built a wood one...
...a wood hut so he could put an AC in it.

So that's a look at my life today
 in mid October with nothing tropical going on.

Again most desired substance in the South is Rain.

I'll be back in a bit.
Chow for now, 

Friday, October 11, 2019

Updated 5 PM Friday Subtropical Storm Melissa Forms October Storm Got a Name.... New England Tropical & Winter All in One...

Melissa is one of those storms that people will talk about.
For a long time as a large, long term event.
Nothing massive is expected but still....
Beach erosion, ships at sea and high winds.
Strong storm surge...
People going to the water and watching.
Sea foam flying in the wind.

What a beautiful sailboat.

Anyway it was right to name it.... is truly a Subtropical Storm.
Tropical Storm force wind across a wide area.

Melissa carrying 60 mph winds.
Across a wide area.
Waiting for it's ticket out to sea.
The wild front with so much snow...
...going to pick up our cold hearted Melissa.
And travel East together...

Some discussion from the NHC to that effect.

Even as it becomes absorbed in the front... will still be interesting to watch.

Typical Subtropical look...
Beautiful swirl.

Even more beautiful here below.

Sunday we can discuss the Carib and...
...the African wave.
And other possibilities for October storms.
Often October storms form close in...
...spin up and surprise us.
Or take days to come together.
Then explode as Michael did a year ago.

I'll update the blog on Sunday.
Have the most beautiful weekend!

Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram.

Ps... if you haven't read the earlier part...
...please keep reading.

The NHC reconsidered. 
Based on the visible satellite image seen above
And several other viable parameters 
Upgraded it to Melissa this morning. 
I’ll do a full update later today 
On the road. 
For the record we now have Melissa. 

* * *

The most beautiful system in the tropics today.
No Name Tropical Storm... Quasi Nor'easter.
It seems to identify as a hurricane. 
Got an eye like feature there.
October always interesting.

Officially this is the story this morning.

30% chances today of getting a name.
Beautiful system deserves a name.
Way better than many this year.
Tightly wound.

There's the system in the pocket....offshore.
The front to the left that will pick it up.
As the sun came up picture below.

Below shows our continuous convection in the Carib.
Doing what we thought it would do.
Hugging the coastline.

A short blog this morning because I'm extremely busy and there isn't much to say other than the New England Storm with no name exceeded all expectations in it's sheer beauty in structure and visual imagery of waves pounding the coastline. While it is offshore, it is a large strong system worthy of being a Tropical Storm compared to many this year that limped along and yet it's one of the storms that can go either way depending on the discretion of the NHC. They have a 30% chance of forming currently that they may change down the road, as they do a non-existent area of weather off the African coast that the models have been showing. And, of course we have the Caribbean on Low Alert as in don't forget it's there .... but nothing is happening today. I'll be on the road today but I'm not Southbound, but putting up this beautiful picture my son took on and posted on Instagram. He's awesome artistic when it comes to photography and loves Miami. Wonder where he got that from?

Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram

Ps... October... you can get any weather you want as the song almost goes.

Thursday, October 10, 2019

October.... Storms. Watching Tropics Still (Caribbean Convection) Noreaster NoName Hybird Storm ...Snow Storm in Dakotas... Santa Ana Winds in California. Pick Your Poison & Keep Watching and a Musical Buffet

GOES16-TAW-13-900x540.gif (900×540)

Good Morning.
Welcome to October.
A crazy quilt of wild weather.

You can see where my interest is tropically speaking.
Watching the Caribbean, deep down there.
Stormy weather in the Atlantic.
Gotta tell you to a Miami girl that sounds normal.
But this supposedly is a huge event.
In Raleigh the sun is coming up quietly...
...through the pines hints of color.
Drop of lavender in the pale blue... 
Carolina blue sky.

You can't see the lavender but it was there....
...because smart phone corrects it.
And tired of fighting with it so...
...close your eyes and imagine.

Now open them and keep reading ;)

As for weather today... 
And oddly to me the big story is in California.
Why you ask?
Because before this Miami girl moved to Carolina..
... I lived in California a long time.

And October there means Santa Ana winds.
And they are forecast today to be strong.
So strong they cut parts of the power grid.
Yes, you heard that right.
That way there's less sparks.
Less sparks means less fires.
Fires fanned with winds of up to 60 MPH.
That's strong tropical storm force winds.
Been there, seen it.....
...watched a whole countryside go up in flames.
Flames blowing in a wind storm.
So as for those traffic lights....
... treat them a 4 way stop.
Stay on the freeway...

Anyway back to the tropics.

The forecast for the impacts to the NE...
...definitely verified.
Nothing tropical or subtropical or extratropical.
Just go with the early Noreaster tag.

I feel like I can hear the big wild storm forecast melting... the dark like that cake in MacAarthur Park in LA.
The storm is staying out at sea as forecast.
But still there are strong tides and big waves.
If you have a boat at the coast you're concerned.
Otherwise it's a Noreaster only in name.
Strong wind... no snow. 
No named Storm.
Moving on.

Seriously.... if you want to read all about.
You need to leave the NHC main screen.
And cut and paste the address they give.
For the North Atlantic High Seas Forecast.

I don't mean to complain just pointing out the obvious.
In 2019 why can the NHC not have a link to click?
I mean do they want you to click or not really?
Has to be the only site online that doesn't have...
...clickable links in 2019.

The system is offshore....
...then the cold front "Aubrey"
Swoops in and sweeps it out to sea.

Lots of warnings up far out at sea.
Lot's of warnings out West.
And then there's Aubrey in the middle.
If you care there's the link to click.

Aubrey, as TWC calls it, is on the move.
Ice, snow, wind, winter...oh my.
They showed a reporter scraping ice... a tree bark just now.
Okay... I guess that happens out there in October.
Actually it's very cool in it's way.
(Wondering what the B named storm is?)
I'm a big winter fan myself.

But as for the tropics....
We are watching the Carib for late season development.
Watching the fronts as they move....
 from the A storm to the B storm
Winter storms dipping down or ....
are they sliding West to East?
We as in "team tropics" 

That's strong convection down there.
Colorful, worth watching.
Models are prone to flip flop.
Best to watch the show in real time.

Good link to historic hurricanes.
Many forget the old ones....
.... some of the worst ever.

I'm going to be honest with you.... gut tells me something will form.
It's a climo thing and this pattern.
But models show really nothing.
Well the EURO shows nothing.
The GFS tries to spin something up...
...loses it, spins it up again.
Nothing to write home about.
Or go long in the blog.

Another link for you is below:
If your area is colored in you may want to click.

October is just that time of year, you can get anything you want at the local mall or a good Chinese Buffet. Isn't it funny when you go to those huge decorated restaurants and they have an area with sushi in one corner, Chinese dishes in another and pizza and onion rings in another... something for everyone! October brings snow to Mt. Rushmore, fires to California, warm weather to Florida and a taste of fall in the Carolinas as New England gets a taste of winter. It's like a trip to your local Mall, yes I still go to Malls. I'm old school and according to every test I have ever taken on Facebook I "grew up in the 80s in California" so I'm still doing the Mall though I order more on Amazon than actually buy things at Macys. But a recent trip to Crabtree Mall in Raleigh showed me stores decorated for Halloween, the Christmas Stores are up and running and Macys China department has been filled with Christmas Trees in every color and design. Bathing suits are on sale, fall sweaters are on sale and they have not yet marked down the Fake Fur that is going to be huge this winter. Something for everyone...  Tropical smoothies next to that booth that sells candy cane chocolate chips, cheese and meat to give as gifts for the holidays. Oh and the 2020 Calendars are on sale at Barnes and Noble. Hard to remember what month it is in this sort of any season you want time of year.

As for me I'm caught in the midst of the Jewish Holidays going away for part of them and planning to be here for the rest of them. Looking forward to seeing old friends and a more better taste of fall as I go up the road a bit to where it's definitely a bit colder. Note to self: Find the pink sherpa I bought at Victoria Secret's last year because I bought it last year on sale and love it and last night I found the boots so... I'm set for colder weather. But I'm still watching the tropics. It's not over til it's over and that mix of fronts on the move and convection in the Caribbean often brings forth a storm to remember. But only time will tell. Anyone can hype it but unless you're using a Ouija board right now... it's not set to go but definitely could happen. My Grandma Mary was a good Southern Girl who deeply respected the Ouija Board and knew to stay away from the Voodoo Queens she learned about when living briefly in New Orleans.  Keep watching.

Going to leave you with an old favorite song.
One from my California days.
Praying the fires aren't bad.
Hoping winter comes early.
And watching the tropics.
Have a great day.
I'm going to pack today... I can repack tonight and tomorrow.
Because that's me.

Yeah.... October is like that song.
You just go with it....
...even if it doesn't make much sense.
You string along... 
...watching Caribbean.
And singing songs...

Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram.

Ps... Need to buy shoes. Really. 
Can I go from sandals to boots?
I have winter high heels.
But don't I need real shoes?
Going to work on this today.

Read in old notes yeterday....
....the Ps is always important.
Notes I made to myself.
Not sure why a song that was called bad....
...was recorded by everyone from Richard Harris.. Frank Sinatra... to Donna Summers.
to Waylon Jennings.
I always loved the song.
Especially in LA... where MacArthur Park is.. 
Well the California one anyway.

I saw Richard Harris in Camelot in LA.
I saw Donna Summers at a disco in Disney there.
I saw Waylon Jennings in a club in Miami.

Waylon does a good job.
It's a break up song.
We all know that.
But it's a true life real life song.
It means to each of us...
...something different I'm sure.
Pick your poison... Waylon..

Told you October is a Buffet.
Pick your poison, enjoy the dessert.

Here's the trivia if you are still here.

Explains it all or as much as anyone will say.
The Association (old group) didn't want to use it.
Saw them play as at an Oldies Place in Pasadena.
I was amazed they were still around.
It was the 80s after all in LA

PPS... God I loved that song.
Still do.... my head I'm walking down Wilshire Blvd.
Shopping for shoes... 
...and maternity clothes.
LOL LA... Discos while pregnant.

The things you loved...
...the places, the people and the music.
You love forever.

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