1999 A Tornado and Hurricane Season to Remember - Oklahoma Moore & More Hurricanes?

Since we are talking so much on the May 1999 Moore Tornado being so similar to this year's tragic Moore Tornado...both F5s late in the Twister Chasing Season.. I thought it was worth a look at 1999 from a Tropical Hurricane perspective as well...

Something to think on .... a lot of late season October storms which would make sense for this year considering winter came late, twister season came late... and possibly late season hurricanes as well.

Just something to think on.



Hearts and prayers for all in Moore and may everyone send them more love, more prayers and more charity to help rebuild.

Besos Bobbi

www.redcross.org

http://crownheights.info/shlichus/386149/chabad-center-provides-immediate-tornado-assistance/ Yes, there are Jews in Oklahoma.. a lot of them. Chabad there helps everyone and they are used to being on front lines providing assistance in times of disaster across the globe from tsunamis to earthquakes to tornadoes. People of faith....help others and doing a mitzvah such as physically helping or giving charity hastens the redemption and spreads good will and love. A lot of churches out there, a lot of other organizations... find one you want to give to and give from the bottom of your heart.

Being a Miami Heat fan.. I've never been a big Kevin Durant fan...but I am now...

http://espn.go.com/nba/story/_/id/9298284/kevin-durant-oklahoma-city-thunder-donate-1-million-tornado-relief



Follow Kevin's lead and give what you can...

"It's Because of the Cost" - - - Mayor of Moore, Oklahoma on Why No Storm Shelter ....

I'm staring at the TV watching coverage of the brave people who saved the children.. many their students and waited for their parents to come and get them... I am sure hoping that the parents were alive and it's so compelling and collectively as a nation we are watching and hoping for happy endings.

And, I am watching the scope of the devastation over a large area if you live in Moore, but a small area if you come from Miami and remember Hurricane Andrew.

And, I got to tell you...devastation is devastation and it looks the same everywhere when a worst case scenario happens and this will most likely go down as a F5 Tornado or borderline F4 and I remember another storm...that was a borderline Category 4 and upgraded later rightfully so to a Category 5.

Homestead after Hurricane Andrew:



Moore after yesterday's Tornado:



Does it really look that different? A disaster is a disaster.

dis·as·ter  

/diˈzastər/

Noun A sudden event, such as an accident or a natural catastrophe, that causes great damage or loss of life. Denoting a genre of films that use natural or accidental catastrophe as the mainspring of plot and setting.

Synonyms calamity - catastrophe - misfortune - affliction

A disaster brings misery no matter where it is and no matter who was standing in the path of the natural catastrophe.

You can however try to minimize the damage and the death toll by trying your best to be informed on your own particular sort of storm and in Tornado Alley having a safe shelter for your school children is as important as opening the school shelters in Miami for families who don't have a safe place to ride out an approaching hurricane. And, yes no where is really safe as even in a shelter calamities can happen but you lower the odds and it is worth the cost.

Showing a map below of where several tornadoes tore a path of damage through the general Miami area and yes people died and those were a long time ago before the incredible weather prediction modeling and the warnings we receive on our cell phone via our Apps that tell us we are in danger. We live in a new amazing world where cities like Moore had SIXTEEN MINUTES of warning. Trust me in 1925 during the Tri-State Tornado Outbreak no one had such warning. And, in 1935 in the Florida Keys people went out for a ride for a picnic not aware that a Category 5 Hurricane was bearing down on them...and my friend's Aunt and her fiance got blown away.

We have come so far and we need to catch up with that awareness and knowledge and do a better job.

People keep asking me why there were no storm shelters to save the children at the elementary school where so many died.

The answer is simple. It's a matter of money. Today on the news the Mayor of the city of Moore stated that quite emphatically... it's a matter of money. And, I have to tell you that from my perspective that's just so sad and so wrong.

""It's Because of the Cost" - - - Mayor of Moore, Oklahoma"


Since May 1999, 14 long years ago, many people in Moore have spent the money to build storm shelters and that's a fact. The newer schools have shelters, the older ones don't. It's that simple.

From my perspective... if you live in a place in Tornado Alley that has had multiple hits in the short term then your main priority is to have an option for a Twister that might touch down.

It seems memory is short term. The first year or two after a tragedy everyone thinks on what to do if it happens again. Five years later you start thinking, "wouldn't it be nice to have a pool for the summer" or "we've always wanted to take that cruise to Alaska" and ten years later when it happens again everyone seems shocked and stunned all over again.

That is the same method of thinking be it a hurricane or a tornado, the human mind prioritizes things in accordance with recent memories and starts counting the odds the further away the painful memory gets.

It's sort of like the lotto. You hear that no one won and you know the payout is going to climb. You go about your week not thinking too much on it. The number climbs, the news media discusses the big pay out and how everyone is buying lotto tickets. Normally, you go and get a quick pick sort of one dollar ticket "just in case" but on your way to the grocery to pick up food for the weekend you walk inside Pubilx...see the long line, remember the news and suddenly you are standing there buying $5 or $10 or even $20 worth of tickets "just in case"

When it fades out of the news and life goes on the tough decisions are made. "Should we see how much a storm shelter would cost?" or "we really want to go visit Aunt Tillie and take that vacation now while she's still around and..."  The decision is made to take a vacation, the odds are in your favor. What's another year? Nothing will probably happen... and then it does. Hopefully,  you are out of town enjoying Aunt Tillie's special fudge and reliving memories when the tornado rips part of your house apart and destroys your neighborhood and your neighbors are gone with the wind. Of course, you could also be home wishing you had a storm shelter...

And, that's a personal decision not a collective one. Should I buy awnings this year in case of a hurricane or wait and just hope I have enough money to buy wood to put up on the windows if a storm hits. You got a tax refund and it's like found money. What do you do with it? Say you live in Miami Shores about two blocks from Biscayne Bay in an old 1920s house with big windows that let in the breeze in the winter and you told yourself you would buy rolladen shutters in case of a hurricane ...at least for the top floor of the house that faces East towards the Bay but.. life got in the way.

This is not a decision that is only facing the hard working people of Moore Oklahoma. The dirt where I grew up gave way to a high water table when we would build tunnels to China as children... You go down 18 inches or 2 feet in Miami and there is water. It's a thin layer of dirt over coral rock and the Biscayne Aquifer that runs below it.. like a river underground. Luckily we don't need basements, but we do need protective coverings on our windows to keep the hurricane winds outside. And, in a Category 4 or 5 that rips your roof off ...no shutters will help.

In North Carolina where I am today the ground is red clay and you'd think I live in Georgia. Why they get all the press about the red clay I don't know... The dirt is hard, not easy to dig down into and in Oklahoma it seems the dirt is more like stone than red clay or oozy, moist, damp dirt like in Miami.

But........you live in Oklahoma, in the middle of tornado alley and everyone has a story about one that trashed someone's life, church or bowling alley so it would seem to be a priority to build storm shelters for the children.

After May 1999 they were added into new schools. As the Mayor of Moore Glenn Lewis said "it's all a matter of money" and I will add it's a matter of priorities.

I'd rather my child have a school with a storm shelter than the best new technology or money for other perceived necessities.

You know... tornadoes ARE random and they happen EVERYWHERE. There was a tornado in Raleigh several years back, it skipped down Weathergreen (honest) and destroyed several homes. We are not prone to big F4 and F5 or even a moderately devastating F3 tornadoes. In North Miami Beach

Find your state and see how your home town has faired regarding tornado touchdowns.
http://www.tornadoproject.com/alltorns/worstts.htm
CHECK YOUR STATE.............note some states have more and some have less, they can happen anywhere. But the big F4s and F5s happen usually in Tornado Alley.

Shortly before my ancestors had tobacco plantations in Quincy Florida there was a dealing tornado. Quincy, north of Tallahassee.
 SEP 10, 1882 9:00 pm 5 dead 8 injured
A hurricane-generated tornado destroyed tenant homes near Quincy, Gadsden County.

A year before the 1926 Hurricane in Miami at the height of the Florida Real Estate Boom there was a deadly rare tornado in a deadly tornado event in a deadly year in 1925.

APR 5, 1925 1:15 pm 5 dead 35 injured
A tornado moved northeast from the Everglades, SW of Hialeah, to eight miles north of Miami.

North Carolina, Raleigh...
NOV 28, 1988 1:00 AM 4 dead 154 injured
The funnel crossed the northwest part of Raleigh, New Hope, Justice, Ita, Halifax, and Jackson.

But, in Oklahoma where the wind comes sweeping down the plains and they are in the heart of the tornado country... often facing the beast up close and very personal it should be a priority.

And, if you live in Hurricane Country... you should have a plan for what to do and where to go in a hurricane vs "well, we'll deal with it when it happens" because weather happens fast and sometimes the money is not there to go get shutters or buy $300 of food and diapers that will get you through a few weeks of no power and no grocery stores being open down the road or up the road and maybe the road will have to be cleared because of fallen pines and oaks.

Remember this blog post in three months if your town is hit by a random, rare, strong hurricane that everyone told you "never happens round here" and remember that Hurricane Hugo far from the coast caused a rock slide that took down boulders the size of Winnebago's.

Savannah, a city I love so much, will have a hurricane one day. The bluff take a direct hit and wipe out the candy store and the lobby of the Bohemian Hotel, but the city will be devastated by fallen oaks and pines and the beautiful squares will be trashed and people will say "I didn't think it could happen here" and that goes for Tampa and Jacksonville and all those cities that have been lucky for so long.

To me ...this is all Deja Vu. It's Naranja and reminds me of parts of Homestead after Hurricane Andrew.

Stay safe, be informed always about the storms that frequent your area and always have a plan and in my opinion a Plan A and a Plan B are always good.

Something to think on not even ten days before the start of the 2013 Atlantic Hurricane Season. Familiarize yourself with what you need to know.

www.spaghettimodels.com has links...go to them, use them...that is what they are there for..

Information on the Tropical Cyclones:  
  Hurricane Season:      From June 1 - November 30
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone, which generally forms in the tropics and is accompanied by thunderstorms and a counterclockwise circulation of winds. Tropical cyclones are classified as follows:
  Tropical Depression:  
Organized system of clouds and thunderstorms with defined surface circulation and max sustained winds of 38 mph or less.
  Tropical Storm:  
Organized system of strong thunderstorms with a defined surface circulation and maximum sustained winds of 39-73 mph.
  Hurricane:  
Intense tropical weather system of strong thunderstorms with a well-defined surface circulation & max sustained winds of 74 mph or higher.
  What are some Hurricane Hazards?  
  Storm Surge:  
Water that is pushed toward the shore by the force of the winds swirling around the storm. This advancing surge combines with the normal tides to create the hurricane storm tide, which can increase the mean water level 15 feet or more.
  Inland Flooding:  
In the last 30 years, inland flooding has been responsible for more than half the deaths associated with tropical cyclones in the US.
  High Winds:  
Hurricane force winds can destroy poorly constructed buildings and mobile homes. Debris such as signs, roofing material, and small items left outside become flying missiles in hurricanes.
  Tornados:  
Hurricanes can produce tornadoes that add to the storm's destructive power. Tornados are most likely to occur in the right-front quadrant of the hurricane.
  What should I do with a Watch or Warning?  
-  When a Hurricane Watch is issued for your part of the coast this indicates the possibility that you could experience hurricane conditions within 36 hours. This watch should trigger your family's disaster plan, and proactive measures should be initiated especially those actions that require extra time such as securing a boat, leaving a barrier island, etc.
-  When a Hurricane Warning is issued for your part of the coast this indicates that sustained winds of at least 74 mph are expected within 24 hours. Once this warning has been issued, your family should be in the process of completing proactive actions and deciding the safest location to be during the storm. 

Besos Bobbi

http://docs.lib.noaa.gov/rescue/mwr/099/mwr-099-02-0146.pdf (good link for people in Miami about tornadoes not  hurricanes. Note...if you live in Miami BUY SHUTTERS.. or anywhere in Florida or along the coast. It's your FIRST line of defense and no it may not save your home or life in a Category 4 or 5, but in a 1 or 2 or 3 it may... it's not a gamble it's a part of life living in Hurricane Country.


http://www.rolladen.com/ (one of many good companies)

Moore Oklahoma - 2 Dozen Children Feared Dead Inside the School. Search and RECOVERY.

The school is approximately where the red dot above was...

Okay, I really don't understand how things work in parts of the world far from where I have lived. I know it's a matter of the odds and that the last Moore Oklahoma Tornado in May of 1999 was said to be a once in a 400 year tornado. Then again, how many records do we really have from the locals who lived in Moore in 1613? I don't think a lot, so the best guess estimates of "one in" don't really mean a thing to be right now.

To be clear they heard noises and cries of children, the cries stopped. They use search and rescue dogs to help show where a person alive is... they have not found any. This is a developing tragedy, but 24 children are missing and they are trying to get to the victims who are presumed to be dead in the debris.

Before and after pics posted online of the area that was hit today by the Twister showing the devastation.

The totals that are being given out at Plaza Towers Elementary School are slowly edging their way up from two dozen to possibly up to thirty and then add in the teachers... it's going to make the Newton School Massacre pale in comparison by the numbers. Mother Nature on the rampage or Father Devil I don't know which and it doesn't matter... children are dead and we let them down from my perspective.

The missing children who are presumed to be dead are buried under a 10 foot wall of debris.

In many parts of the country we close schools for predicted blizzards that barely show any snow. We close school for hurricanes that never happen. Why do we not close school on days when the probability within a certain region is so high that every storm chaser friend I have who could took off work and hit the road knowing today would be the day. Especially after yesterday.

Yes, I know it's a big financial decision to cancel school, parents work and need school to babysit as well as teach. In Miami it's a big decision to shut down schools and in our case we have to shut down schools if we will use the schools as shelters. School days need to be made up. In Raleigh they call school late many times during the winter and kids need not show up until 11 AM based on worries of Raleigh drivers unable to drive on snow or black ice.

They spend a fortune salting the roads in case of the snow that often never falls.

WHY.............why........ oh why when there is such a high chance of tornadoes a few days a year on the level of today's out break is there not some station like www.wral.com here in Raleigh where everyone is told to check the website and see if they will or won't cancel school or make it a late day.

Tornadoes do not happen early in the morning, almost never. Why couldn't they have made an early release when the reports were evident that tornadoes would race across the land there razing brick homes and digging the grass off the lawns along with the brick homes.

This is not rocket science...this is reality biting and reality does bite.

By 9 AM... 10 AM... even 11 AM it was evident that storms would form. Why not make an early release and let the parents come get the students... just in case?

Is this some sort of Pioneer spirit out on the prairie where we roll with the punches and keep a stiff upper lip and hope for the best and tell kids to hide in a hallway that has some reinforcement when the roof will be lifted up and carried away leaving the children buried under rubble?

I just don't understand, but I do understand that this is a budgeting decision on some level and someone needs to step up to the plate and make changes in the way things are done.

So kids will miss English and maybe Art and they may not get to football practice...and life will go on but their lives will go on.  Yes, many kids and parents died in their homes nearby, but at least they had a chance rather than sitting in some classroom at the mercy of teachers who are at the mercy of the school board and their emergency plans and prayers for miracles.

And, have heard today of teachers who sacrificed their lives covering their children's bodies with their own... those teachers should have been given the chance to go home early or stayed home. People did survive this tornado...they ran, they hid... they survived. At least not holed up in school waiting for some official to make a decision...........they had a chance and so would the students. They did decide to evacuate the children and they were working their way down. The 4th, 5th and 6th graders were taken to a stronger building...the 3rd graders and pre-schoolers were stuck behind. Explain me that one? Wouldn't you have started with the younger ones and worked your way up? I've had a lot of kids, usually you protect the youngest who are more reliant on us and well... it just seems a lose, lose, lose decision all around to send the kids to school when you keep them home in New England for blizzards and Tampa for tropical trouble.

It's time to be proactive and realistic and figure out how to cancel school on days when tornadoes will most likely happen....or at least make an early release.

Years ago............our radars were not as good and our live time reports from storm chasers on cell phones did not exist. In the 1950s and the 1960s and the 1970s and even the 1980s... we did not have the data nor did we have the weather modeling that we have no from computers. Tornadoes were the "finger of God" in that they jjust suddenly happened. That is no longer true.

Anyone and everyone from Miami to Seattle was watching in real time on TWC today and on Twitter and other places where people watch as the situation was developing the way the weather models predicted they might. Things have changed, you don't have to wait to hear the freight train to know that there is a high possibility of your town being wiped out by an approaching tornado and yet we are still acting like we did years ago when other children died in their schools as a tornado crashed a wall of bricks down on them or the roof of the gym caved in.

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/arx/?n=schoolprep2
A list of schools damaged by storms and of students dying.. here are a few:

August 28, 1990 - Plainfield, IL. Courtesy of NWS Chicago/Romeoville, IL.

• An F5 tornado hit Plainfield High School one day before classes were to begin. The football team was practicing on the field and the volleyball team was in the gym. The football coach ordered the team indoors because of lightning. They all survived. A custodian and teacher were killed though. The tornado also severely damaged a Catholic school and an elementary school but there no students in either building. The elementary school was rebuilt with zig-zagging hallways (no long straight wind tunnels), and lots of safe interior spaces.

November 16, 1989 - Newburgh, NY.

• A downburst blew in windows, doors, and a cinder block wall of a school cafeteria killing 9 children and injuring 21.

May 4, 1978 - Clearwater, FL (Highpoint Elem. School). Courtesy of NWS Tallahassee, FL.

• A tornado struck during a school day killing 3 children and injuring nearly 100 others. Property damage totaled close to $4 million.

http://www.recordonline.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/99999999/NEWS/70920020

(interestingly published this morning, it must have been on someone's mind...as I said we were talking online this morning about the issue of why schools are not cancelled on days like today)

"Published: 2:00 AM - 05/20/13

Friday, November 17, 1989

Seven schoolchildren were killed yesterday when a tornado tore through a cafeteria wall at East Coldenham Elementary School.

Nineteen others were injured, some seriously, in the second-worst disaster in the history of New York state schools, authorities said.

``It was total disaster. It was hell, it was living hell,'' said Assistant Fire Chief Bud Sharp, in charge at the accident for Coldenham Fire Department. ``The poor kids were eating lunch and 2 to 4 tons of masonry fell on them.'' All children were accounted for by late afternoon, state police said.

About 120 children - mostly first- and second-graders - were eating a lunch of lasagna about 12:30 p.m. when a tornado rolled from the south across Route 17K.

The twister uprooted a large willow tree, churned along the school's driveway and bore down on the cafeteria, witnesses said. Many of the school's 254 students heard a high-pitched whistling sound and the walls of the 29-year-old school began to shake.

``I was just sitting there and all of a sudden the wall caved in,'' said second-grader Michael Miller Jr., 7, who was eating in the rear of the cafeteria-auditorium."

Another...

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1967_Oak_Lawn_tornado_outbreak

"The F4 tornado that struck Belvidere caused one of the highest tornado-related death tolls in a single school building and was featured in an episode of The Weather Channel's Storm Stories."

Another tragedy does not need to happen. We have an awesome array of meteorological data and modeling in real time and it's time for us to change the way we take precautions for Twisters. Plain and simple. It is time to make changes.  Cancel school or cancel it at Noon or 1 PM. Almost all of these historic events happened in the afternoon.

Let us learn from this...

Yes, we cannot yet control weather and if we could it might have other ramifications. But, we have come so far in our knowledge and our ability to predict severe weather outbreaks. It's time for us to rethink how we perceive tornadoes.

I'd rather keep a kid home, bake cookies with him or watch an old movie with her or spend some quality time with them and lose a days work then ... send them to school on a day when I know deep down that severe weather most likely will happen and just hope for the best.

Our children deserve more...

And, yes I understand hurricanes better than tornadoes... but I have gone to the beach many a day with a child when the storm stayed off shore and watched the waves safely and lost the days work and kept the child home than taken the chance that they would be fine and it wouldn't be a problem. My kids, my choice... my illusion of control as a parent but one I like to hold on to.

Prayers for everyone who has suffered from this tragedy both online, offline, down the block or around the corner from Moore Oklahoma.

Besos Bobbi
Ps... the powers that be on TV pulled tonight's episde of Mike and Molly which was a season finale show that revolved around a tornado in Chicago. If we can pull a TV show so it doesn't offend anyone, why can't we cancel school at 1PM before the Tornado hits and kills the students who may have had a fighting chance hiding in their bathroom with their family or in a basement in their house or a neighbors house.......

http://insidetv.ew.com/2013/05/20/cbs-yanks-tonights-tornado-themed-mike-molly/

OKC Twisters ...Tragic Scene at Briarwood Elementary Searching For Children Trapped Under Debris

Writing this in real time while following Twitter, talking to friends and watching TV. It's mind boggling. And, I keep thinking on the discussion this morning about when do you shut school for the day in these areas with high chances for tornadic disaster. In Florida we have Hurricane Warnings or Watches and we shut down the school. In Oklahoma you have a Tornado Warning when the tornado has been spotted.. the kids are in school.

I'll say it again and again and again. If you have to choose a natural disaster.. I'll take a hurricane any day. You can prepare, get your family together and hunker down and pray. There is some semblance of security in the illusion of being in control that I will take over a Twister any day...or an Earthquake for that matter.





Massive damage near the Orr Family Ranch near SW 134th and Western in Moore Oklahoma.

It's like Deja Vu all over again, for me at least as I was online with friends during the last Moore Twisters and I remember that night very well.

The tornadoes today are considered worse than the ones in 1999. The damage trail is at least a mile wide and two miles in some area. There is preliminary talk this could have been an F5..that is just early discussion based on visual damage reports such as "grass torn out of the ground" and satellite imagery. A large wedge tornado that remained on the ground for over a half an hour.. maybe 45 minutes.

Moore, for those of you who don't know, is a suburb to the south of Oklahoma City.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moore,_Oklahoma

Be aware...there were kids in the school when the Tornado went through. There seems to be a big concern about 3rd graders as well as others who were in lock down and may or may not have been in some of the damaged parts of the building. The building seems to have been... destroyed.

You know this morning we had a whole discussion on Facebook about why school was not cancelled or is not cancelled on days like this and in retrospect I have to say there is something to be said for that arguement.

Briarwood Elementary is said to have been destroyed.

BREAKING: "Children trapped---children hurt" at Briarwood Elementary School in Moore, OK after tornado - @NEWS9 pic.twitter.com/m8m2wrj4ZL

75 children were in the hallway that is destroyed, approximately 15 to 30 kids are still trapped under debris. This is a real time search and rescue.

Children... adults, cars... horses on the farm ... parents unable to get inside. Parents are not allowed into the "debris pile" and parents who have tried to get inside and have been stopped so emergency workers can do their job.

Understand the "safe spot" is a hallway as it seems in this region they don't have basements often or "storm shelters" which to me is hard to understand, but I'm a Florida girl who does hurricanes definitely not tornadoes.

Look at the swath, the width of the line that moved SLOWLY through Oklahoma City today...

This is really tragic... the hospital there is damaged as well.

Search and recovery are going on at Moore County Medical Center, Briarwood Elementary and Plaza Towers Elementary.

Prayers are needed here, serious prayers.

Tweets tell a sad and tragic story of horses having to be put down that survived the storm, but are injured.



Stori Kelso ‏@StoriMichelle 4m
They are having to put the animals down by shooting them at the Orr Family Farm because they are in so much pain

 Lana Bo-banna ‏@LanaLanaBobanna 4m
Those poor horses at the Orr family farm.

 LEXI JONES❤ ‏@lexijones32596 4m
The Orr family farm got hit and approx. 75 horses were killed😭.

 Patriot Lemonade ‏@PatriotLemonade 4m
75 to 100 Horses dead at Orr Family Farm in Moore Oklahoma. #PrayForOklahoma



http://kfor.com/

Incredible Live Time reports with pictures in this fast moving news feed:

http://livewire.koco.com/Event/Live_Wire_Tracking_Oklahoma_storms_May_18

I'll be back later.

If you are in the line of these storms later today... take them very seriously.



Besos Bobbi.

Twisters, Cicadas and Tropical Updates

It's one of those mornings... can't pull it together and there is so much going on and yet as the day progresses I feel that so much more will be going on.

Twisters in Oklahoma were responsible for two people dying tragically and a whole lot of misery and today may be the sequel as the clouds build, the set up remains the same and the energy will be relased in the form of more storms.

The imge above is from www.tvnweather.com and that is debris flying in the air as the "dominator" moved towards the tornado. No, can't say it's a cow or a semi, but it's for real and if anything does happen this afternoon you can follow it on TWC or TVNWEATHER.COM. Got to say, Reed and Jim on the road is about as good as it gets.

Why tornadoes? Why now after all the articles about the slowest season in the history of forever? Because this whole year has been that way so I am wondering if Cape Verde Storms will make landfall in October at this rate.

You can see how the tropical warm energy in the Caribbean is meeting up with the area of unstable weather in the Plains. You can also see how the pattern is setting up for possible problems in 9 or 10 days in the tropics.




The GFS keeps spitting out possible tropical development in the Carib in the long range. But on every other run it's in the Carib or the Pacific. We often watch the trend this early in the season more than the actual output of the product.

On the East Coast people are worrying on Cicadas not tropical weather or twisters.

For anyone here who is a newbie I hate cicadas any year, every year...but this year they are supposed to be Cicadas of Epic proportions. Brigadoon like they arise out of the ground suddenly, have a lot of sex, dance about and then go back to where they came from...dust to dust so to speak...

The Capital Gang is watching this for us carefully.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/wp/2013/05/20/cicada-update-latest-coverage-map-and-a-cicada-taste-test/

I cannot believe I have to go into the heart of Cicada Country when they are about to hatch. A wedding in Baltimore...a nice excuse to dress up, dance and see friends and then............the ocean....

I better not see or hear a cicada or it won't be pretty.

But, be warned...they are out there ... lurking...getting ready for party.

I'm getting ready to leave town at the first chirp... anywhere but where they are...

A look at my own personal morning:

A look at my morning...

I sent this to my brother with the words S A V A N N A H :)

• 

  Like ·  ·  · Share · Promote

  • Ron Call me asap....please very funny...
    
    
    Bobbi oh fine. i'll have to stretch and change positions to get the phone..you have broken the beauty of the moment here where I didn't do a frigging thing except read the news and watch satellite imagery wishing it was football season or hurricane season or any season other than rain, rain, go away season
    
    
    

That is a church in Savannah that they were showing on Facebook today. Learn more about it as it's an awesome place as is any place in Savannah.

http://firstafricanbc.com/history.asp

Become their friend below, though have to say it's low on my list right now after a dream to got to Seattle and want to see Key West before the summer is over and personally I like Winston-Salem, thinking a Bed and Breakfast...yes really or New Bern. Anyway.......look around for yourself. Oh, and Nashville before the year is out with my brother Ronnie for sure. Asheville too...

https://www.facebook.com/VisitSavannahGA?ref=ts&fref=ts


Anyway, all of the above is my brother and I talking on Facebook. If you want to lose an hour of your life ...check your Facebook. Then again..almost all of my mail comes in through Facebook.

It was one of those mornings when the realization that you are really not feeling well settles slowly over you after the coffee didn't help ...and then the shower didn't help and you wonder if having a Nespresso will help and then you realize nothing will help and you cry uncle and call the Chiropractor though he is not my uncle and one of my favorite ones is in Israel celebrating his birthday so ... made an appointment with Joseph who is good ...good enough...better than not going.

And, I do miss the football season and I can't wait until Hurricane Season officially starts and can't wait to sit and stare at a beach, any beach, anywhere... anywhere that there is a breeze and a sunrise and an ocean. I'm so desperately landlocked today I'd take a good river.

If you are in Wilmington, NC this is a great place to watch the sun set over the river. Have a drink..relax and watch...




The view you would be looking at:



New Bern is nice too ....







Either way it seems my brother and I are both thinking on traveling, but going in different directions this coming weekend. Meet me in Savannah is our usual battle cry...not this week.

Back to weather............... I did notice I was rambling, explain that later.


For some great images follow Texas Storm Chasers online and order some of their amazing prints to decorate what is I am sure your adorable adobe somewhere probably not in Texas ;)

https://www.facebook.com/TxStormChasers?hc_location=stream

http://texasstormchasers.smugmug.com/Weather/2013/Chase-May-19-2013/29516918_3p2Hpj#!i=2522985067&k=Xhq8X3c

Come on click.... I know you want to...

Anyway, I am going to the chiropractor....til then 2 Happy Camper Pills washed down with some good honey bourbon is what's for lunch and catching up on the last episode of Nashville which I missed when I was offline for the Shavous Holiday and all that cheesecake.

Take care everyone and plan out your Memorial Day Weekend carefully... weather may or may not be a problem and you may as well be informed about the storm before it forms!

Besos Bobbi

Tropical Storm Alvin...IN the PACIFIC...

ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT THU MAY 16 2013

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM ALVIN...LOCATED WELL SOUTH OF MAINLAND MEXICO.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

Moving West away from land..........

And, so it begins... first in the Eastern Pacific and then in the Atlantic.

Posting these images just so you remember what BobbiStorm doing Hurricane Weather is all about.

Been a while.......

In the Indian Ocean Mahasen made landfall and is moving up into NE India.. inland after at least 10 people are dead (and really expect that number to CLIMB) in Bangladesh.





This is the MJO...we will discuss it more in detail later, but it is moving from the Indian Ocean East towards our neck of the woods.



Worth reading up on:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/mjo.shtml

In Texas the horror of the mile wide tornado created damage that is horrific and memorable and I'm here to talk about tropical weather not tornadoes, but... if you want to watch the youtube video and haven't seen it I'm posting it. A Habitat for Humanity tract of homes were destroyed. If you wish to donate to this wonderful cause I'm posting the link at the bottom of the page.

http://www.khou.com/news/Tornadoes-large-hail-keep-North-Texas-on-edge-207653541.html

As much as people love to watch these storms form... we don't like to see them touch down..

Storm Chaser Video:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aXq6AfxUWNk

In on our neck of the woods:

That system is moving East... that caused the destruction and death.. in Texas.




Going to get messy on Saturday...



That's a lot of rain on the way for the Carolinas and the East Coast.



Florida is having it's May Moonsoons and if it doesn't rain every day you got to wonder what's happening with the weather there :)

A small anomaly worth mentioning here that may have huge ramifications for the season down the road. There is a LARGE, HUGE pool of very hot water up in the North Atlantic.

If you saw those oranges and reds in the Atlantic near the Leeward Islands or the Cape Verde Islands you'd be really nervous. As a mater of fact...there are a lot of oranges and a few pockets of hotter water near the Cape Verde Islands.

As a friend likes to say "HMMMNNNNN...."

As for me..............I was busy the last few days eating a lot of really good food, spending time with family and friends and sitting on the deck staring at the sky and the trees and the bees and eating cheesecake and ice cream and pimento spread (home made) and cheese danish and salmon and chicken and I'm thinking there was brisket on Tuesday Night, but can't remember. Going to leave myself a note maybe tomorrow what we had... cause it might help me next year if I can't figure out what to make. Oh..and pineapple boats filled with fresh fruit and am drinking tea for the next day I think with an occasional egg or yogurt.

Strawberry Cream Cheese Noodle Pudding



And, we also fill our homes with flowers so I got a lot of new flowers for the table, the yard, the deck..well you get the idea and Ice Cream...



And Edwards Cream Pies and Phish Food Ice Cream...

And, that is that... stay safe, stay happy and stay informed.

Besos Bobbi

Ps http://www.habitat.org/  <--------------donate ..="" class="goog-spellcheck-word" near="" or="" span="" style="background-color: yellow; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial;" you="">Granbury
Texas. Just donate and you can sign up to work on the homes as well. My husband and my son have gone out there and worked on a project called Abraham Builds in the Raleigh area. Every area has a project and many have store where you can buy things and the money goes to Habitat. A great store if you are down in the Keys near Big Pine, for example.
http://stfrancispastoralministries.wordpress.com/2012/06/12/the-house-that-abraham-built/

Almost 2 Weeks to go... 2013 Hurricane Season & Flip Flop Weather

Welcome to the almost ready for prime time Atlantic Hurricane Season which is being brought to you by the Queen of Flip Flop also known as Mother Nature!

If you click on the picture above you will see several things...one is 2013 as it's the new site which Mike has improved and touched up and done what is hard to do which is perfect something that seemed pretty darn near perfect.

As for the world...the tropics are busy in the Bay of Bengal, warming up in the Eastern Pacific and a front is draped down into the Bahamas. That thin white line of clouds with some localized yellows and oranges is the ITCZ which stands for Inter Tropical Convergence Zone where things start to bubble hot and blow up into storms more often than not.. once we are deeper into the season.



As for my world, I'm sitting here trying to figure out what to make for the Jewish Holiday of Shavous which comes early this year and does not interfered with my storm tracking. It's based on a lunar calendar so sometimes it shows up in late June when some A or B storm is on the map. This year it's early, so it's a Pre-Season holiday and not interfering with me discussing some named storm.

Listening to Carrie Underwood singing Blown Away and enjoying a Mother's Day present from the contingent in Hollywood Florida who sent me this big package with perfumed soap and some Indian music and Country Music and all the things I love from the kids who knows me so well.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pJgoHgpsb9I



Amazing CD and not just because it has weather songs ;) you're wrong, haha.. you don't know me that well. Smiling...

Dry lightning cracks across the skies
Those storm clouds gather in her eyes
Her daddy was a mean old mister
Mama was an angel in the ground
The weather man called for a twister
She prayed blow it down

There's not enough rain in Oklahoma
To wash the sins out of that house
There's not enough wind in Oklahoma
To rip the nails out of the past

And trust me there is a whole lot of wind in Oklahoma.............but for now I'm in Carolina making cheesecake and going to ballet class and wishing I was on Miami Beach staring out at the water under a palm tree and watching hurricanes and football..

My son is driving with his family cross country to Seattle for an Internship this summer at Amazon. Very proud of him, of them.. most interns are young kids he juggles wonderfully a great marriage and being the father of two small, active children with going to college full time to study computer engineering so that he can I imagine take over the world one day :)

Yesterday it was 88 up in the middle of nowhere unless you are a bear and warmer than it was in parts of Florida and the Carolinas.  My daughter in law Chani sent me this picture, it had been higher but this was where they took the picture. Am sure the bears were hot...there's a video on Facebook waiting for me.  They were going here...........with the kids to see the bears........

http://www.bearcountryusa.com/

Phil Ferro from Channel 7 in Miami posted this on Facebook.



NOTE THATS THE HEAT INDEX not the actual temps..

In Carolina last night about five miles north of me as the crow flies... and we do have crows there was a Freeze Warning.



Honest.

Yes sir.. Yes Maam... FLIP FLOP WEATHER..and I don't mean flip flops unless you are in North Dakota or Key West.

As for me...off to the gym... got to dance ;) (yes darling friend that was a song cue)

As for Shavous..

Let em eat cheesecake:




Besos Bobbi

Ps.. a link to my daughter-in-law's blog which is a wonderful read for anyone of any age but especially a young mother.

http://chanisbaby.blogspot.com/2013/05/oh-what-day.html

Mixed Messages From the Tropics.. Is a Storm Developing in the Pacific or the Caribbean in a few weeks?

The GFS model has been spitting out a possible development in the deep Caribbean for days now. I had the best image saved under the term "Fantasy Cane" as that is what it was ...and been watching to see how it would pan out before posting it. Fifteen days away is a long time...

But, worth showing what the GFS was showing..

For now...if the area in the Pacific develops it will keep the Caribbean quiet a little bit longer.



Hurricanes are about transference of energy and when one area develops the other doesn't. Plain and simple.

That being said... the MJO which I believe does make a big difference is going to moving towards the Pacific and then the Caribbean in the near future. Many consider it responsible for the current storm in the Bay of Bengal commonly known to trackers as BoB.

The GFS currently shows development in the Pacific...

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.cgi?time=2013051312&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation


On the other side of the world the tropics are alive and kicking..

It takes patience to track in the tropics in May on our side of the world. One day a model can hit South Florida on the 13th day and 2 days later it's playing with development in the Pacific.

It's a process ...

It's a question of watching the pattern...

Every day, every set of models and at the same time not jumping to conclusions.

Ice flows in Minnesota..

Warmer weather in Montana than Orlando? Will Montana and North Dakota end up being warmer today than Miami was? Keep watching..they day is young out west ...

Telling you now.. it's gonna be quite an interesting season coming at you soon in a few weeks ..

Keep watching the mixed messages.. and keep up the chatting on www.hurricanechat.com

Besos Bobbi

Ps..it may be cool still in the Outer Banks, very cool .... but the water is warming up off the coast of Miami...