Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Thursday, June 22, 2017

NHC & CINDY Divorce Final .. Inland & Passing Cindy Off to the NWS. EX Bret & Wave in Atlantic. Post Game Discussion on Models GFS Victory over EURO (kind of) Cantore Covers Flooding IN Lake Charles Area


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A bit of a post game analysis on Tropical Storm Cindy this morning and then I'll talk on a few things to think about down the road. The models overall did an excellent job of sniffing out development where Cindy was concerned despite massive differences. In truth both of the hot shot models were right. The GFS kept smelling huge amounts of rain and low pressure along the NE Gulf of Mexico coast, however it was wrong with it's intensity forecast. The Euro that stubbornly insisted a small tropical cyclone would form and hook left towards Texas was wrong on the extreme left hook to Mexico. And over time the Euro inched itself northeastward towards Mexico and came more in line with the GFS that moved it's landfall from the NW coast of Florida a bit further West. Sometimes the models look as if they are trying to stay out of court and in mediation. Much like a real estate deal where a seller wants an unrealistic price and a buyer wants to get it as cheap as possible it's the realtor's job to convince them both to agree on middle ground.



Back on June 15th the top two models showed the solutions above. That was long range modeling for a system that never really formed a closed center until just before landfall. And, even then it had multiple centers rotating around one oblong, closed center. Now in reality the EURO was WAY off, however in any other year it most likely would have been on the money. The GFS showed an immensely large closed Low moving up in the Eastern Gulf of Mexico moving towards landfall near Mobile or Pensacola Bay. This year in particular the desert SW had some extreme heat planes were forbidden to land in Phoenix and many airlines had to cancel flights. That huge High took over the SW and the SW bleeds into Texas from a meteorological point of view and it made the usual friendly realm of the BOC in June be downright inhospitable. Despite my respect for the EURO I didn't find it's solution to be correct. As for the GFS I didn't think the low would wrap that much nor be so strong and with no strong cold fronts and lack of steering currents it would be hard for a weak kneed large low pressure Gyre to make a run for the gold in Apalachicola. It's akin to turning a big rig on a small country road that has a sharp bend with water on either side; not happening. You need a stronger system and a stronger front to grab a cyclone in the GOM in June and hook it right hard.

Where did that leave the messy, large potential tropical cyclone 3? It avoided the west side of the GOM and found the slight weakness between the high to the right and the high to the left and stayed in the middle drifting slowly North carrying heavy tropical moisture along with it until finally after flirting with an ULL in the NW GOM it tried as hard as it could to inch it's way more to the West and make landfall around the Sabine River between Louisiana and Texas and moved on up to Lake Charles area while it's real weather slammed into the area along Mississippi, Alabama and the Panhandle of Florida. Basically the GFS nailed the precipitation and murky weather while the Euro moved closer to where the weakly developed center of low pressure coughed itself up onto the beaches along the Sabine River with just a part of her moisture officially hitting Texas. Discussion from NHC is below with current location of Cindy.



"Radar imagery from Slidell and Lake Charles, Louisiana along with
surface synoptic data, particularly those from Calcasieu Pass
Louisiana, indicate that the center of Cindy crossed the coast
between Cameron Louisiana and Port Arthur Texas an hour or two ago.
The observations from Calcasieu indicate that the intensity is now
around 35 kt.  Now that the center is inland, steady weakening will
occur and the system should become a depression later today, and be
reduced to a post-tropical remnant low tonight.  In 2-3 days, or
sooner, the remnant low of Cindy should become absorbed into a
frontal zone over the eastern United States."


Now what? It tangles with the new frontal boundary after merging with the old dead frontal boundary and a lot of this will be played out in real time depending on how much gas the new front has in it's tanks and how far it can go. I've outlined the possible flooding conditions that occur when a tropical system merges with a front and elevation of land can lead to huge localized flooding.  Showing Mike's post on Facebook below as it tells the tale again that I have been saying for days. Inland flooding over the next few days is possible across a huge expanse of the SE and then the Mid Atlantic while tropical moisture continues to train in along the beaches of GOM


Mike explains the problem with Cindy well.
I've talked incessantly on the flooding dangers.
So let's move on.

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I'm watching what was Bret for two reasons.
Shouldn't have been anything left of it..
...but there is so keep watching.
It also enhances moisture in the long tail of Cindy.


And, I'm watching the wave in the Atlantic.
It does have a purple splotch shown below..
..however models are not in love with it.
Again for a wave to leave Africa in JUNE..
..and be this recognizable as it nears the islands is HUGE.


So that's the state of the tropics today.
The big story may become the flooding from Ex-Cindy.
The plug has been pulled. Last advisory written.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT3+shtml/221434.shtml

Follow Cindy at the NWS
http://www.weather.gov/

Tropics may be quiet for a few days.
But never say never so keep watching.

I'm taking a break myself a bit today and enjoying life. Celebrating my son's sale of a beautiful, luxury lot (vacant land) on Miami Beach about a mile and a half north of where he was raised. Levi Meyer of Compass Realty fame knows Miami Beach and knows how to convince two sides to come together unlike others who held the listing but could not! My son is on the right ;) If you know someone who wants to sell or buy land in the tropical paradise.. Levi Meyer knows Real Estate in Miami like Jim Cantore knows Hurricanes and Thundersnow!!



http://www.absolutemiami.com/mexican-developer-sells-waterfront-pine-tree-drive-lot-for-6-75m/#



Besos BobbiStorm
Follow me on Twitter @bobbistorm 
I tweet faster than I blog.

Ps. GFS may have gotten better.
Euro may just have lost this one.
Time will tell.










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Wednesday, June 21, 2017

UPDATED 8 PM - Problem With Cindy - Now Deadly Tropical Storm as Child Dies in Alabama. Dangers For More Death, Destruction & Injuries Up the Road


Center is still offshore remember that.
Wicked, deadly weather to the East in her bands.
Notice the spirals in her circulation below


In motion:

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(remnants of Bret flaring up)
(new wave in Atlantic flaring up)
(ignore things in parenthesis) 
(shhh)

Global view below.



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http://wkrg.com/2017/06/21/breaking-crews-responding-to-possible-drowning-of-child-at-fort-morgan/ 

Link to the details in the sad story and some pictures from the scene. It's enough to say wind whip up surf and things happen that wouldn't normally happen. A large, heavy log tossed by the surf seems to have struck the young boy and he died. His family was nearby and he was very close the rental property they were staying in. That's the gist of the story, enough to know he died and others might as trouble happens when a system covers such a huge, immense area of land. The larger the area the higher the risk is for injuries and death. Not because of the strength of Cindy, but due to her size covering so many states.


Again a small compact, fast moving Cat 1 would have been easier.

The issue here with Cindy is her huge tail, massive rain shield and it's movement towards merging with an old dying frontal boundary giving it problems few storms possess. A look back at 1972 when Hurricane Agnes made landfall and then went on to deliver massive flooding rains from the GOM up to through the NE. Weather historians remember storms like Agnes when we see the potential for huge flooding way upstream from landfall from a huge, wet hurricane with a tail down into the Caribbean merging with an old frontal boundary in June.


Compare similarities to the set up.


Hurricane Agnes above.
TS Cindy below.


Not as bad as Agnes... 
...hopefully no where near as bad.
But the potential for similar flooding is there.
Huge rain shield.
Dying front, merged with tropical cyclone.
HUGE tail down into the Caribbean.
Traveling across hilly and mountainous areas down the road.

http://origin.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/allfcsts_loop_ndfd.gif


Why I say the cone is less important with Cindy.
The forecast rainfall is the bigger concern.

Watch the loop and watch the tail.

rb-animated.gif (720×480)

Oh look bottom right...
...what's that?
Hmnnn

There's your cone!


What you need to know is..
There are hills, streams and mountains in it's cone.
Cindy + Dying Front + orographic effect = flooding

Landfall will be messy.
The bigger story may come in a few days.

Sweet Tropical Dreams,
BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter
Follow me on Twitter for faster updates.

***





http://www.al.com/news/mobile/index.ssf/2017/06/tropical_storm_cindy_2017_powe.html


The problem with Tropical Storm Cindy is that it has now claimed the life of a 10 year old boy from what appears to be flying debris. Details are coming in but the death has been confirmed, reported and the term "deadly" has been attached to Cindy. Many will be annoyed people will now report it as Deadly Tropical Storm Cindy and yet death is death and someone has died. And it is not surprising as the sheer size of a geographic area being affected by high winds, squally weather, high seas and debris caught up in strong bands coming on shore makes the situation ripe for the title Deadly. That is why the NHC has erred so much on the side of caution with this system even back when it was a Potential Tropical Cyclone.

The evolution of this situation and the need to convey the dangers inherent aren't easy when you look at the radar and it looks like another summer thunderstorm moving onto the beach. The Satellite signature doesn't scream "WATCH OUT" and for those of you who do not watch TV and don't see the TWC nonstop coverage and are watching HULU or NETFLIX the dangers may fly under the radar. Sadly, debris flies in the wind and it's deadly even in small tropical storms.

The watches and warnings are up and yet it's hard to tell people across a wide area to lay low and wait for the storm to move on. I know life goes on. Rules are often broken and warnings ignored when you are far from a weak tropical storm and you are used to dealing with much larger Hurricanes. And, that is the biggest problem Cindy delivers in that it's "just a weak tropical storm" and it's easy to believe this is all overkill in the media trying to get ratings and attention with lead news stories.


Look at the number of watches and warnings up above for that area.
Note the Tropical Storm symbol shown below.


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It may not look like a serious system.
See those strong red cells moving onto shore?
Between them we think we can easily go about business.
Run out to the store, stop at the beach quick.
But they are moving fast in that tail with high gusts.
A rain wrapped tornado can be hidden in a rain band.
You might never see it coming...


Let's look at a map.



http://www.clemson.edu/ces/geolk12/semaps/seregional/screen/digielmap.jpg

Let's look at a random town.
Shreveport, Louisiana


You think to yourself it's far to the North of the coast.
Safer from problems of landfalling Cindy.
And yet there is a Flash Flood Watch.



Cone above from NHC

Warnings from NWS below:



Move further to the East and NE of Shreveport.
Elevation of the land adds to the problems.
So many small towns, rivers, streams and even bayous.

You have areas far inland that rarely deal directly with tropical storms other than a bit of rain as they fall apart. Cindy is merging with a stalled out frontal boundary and the rain will work it's way far inland. It's not being scooped up by a hungry, strong front and swept out to sea like so many Category 2 Hurricanes making landfall along the Gulf of Mexico are prone to doing. This is and will be a slow motion disaster in both dollar amounts and possibly more loss of life. It's a huge area under the gun from rain, wind, tornadoes, flash floods and add in fatigue in that people begin to get tired of staying home. They go out and about figuring they will be safe and sometimes that works and sometimes that doesn't work so well. 

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Watch the merging of Cindy with the frontal boundary above.

There has also been a news story being some what attributed to Cindy when an United flight was hit by extreme turbulence and at least 12 have been injured. The FAA is looking into the incidence but if you are flying today along a route near Cindy keep your seat belt on as they often suggest but most people don't do. 

http://abcnews.go.com/WNT/video/dozen-people-injured-united-airlines-flight-due-turbulence-48170433


And Cindy looks more tropical this hour.
And with every hour ...


And that tail will head straight towards land.
Carrying strong wind with it.
Lay low, let it go it's way.
The sun will come out eventually.
Easy to say I know.

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Wider view allows you to see the depth of that tail.
Also remnants of Bret are caught up in the flow.
Bret's remnants being fed by moisture off of South America.
An ULL lies between the tail of Cindy and Ex Bret.

Up the road, up hill across the Southeast.
Cindy will continue to spread misery.
Even as a barely there tropical storm.
Think of Cindy more as a Weather Event.
A dangerous weather event.
And now it will be called Deadly Cindy.
Hope and pray it is the last death attributed to Cindy.

Besos BobbiStorm
Follow me on Twitter @bobbistorm

Ps There is more weather out there to talk on in a few days.
It may not develop or it might.
But June this year is more like August in most years.

Waves are moving off of Africa.


This area is highlighted in purple to watch...


Again note the area highlighted below.
The potential for inland flooding is huge.
www.spaghettimodels.com











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Updated 11 AM -Cindy 50 MPH Tropical Storm - Not Your Normal Storm. Weather Way to the East of Track. More a Weather Event Brought To You By the Hurricane Season Rather Than a True Tropical Storm

Cindy

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This post in particular may appeal to the literary types who I know follow my blog. Those of us who hear scenes from our favorite plays or passages from our favorite novel will understand this post. We all have our favorites. Students of meteorology have that one storm that sucked them in to the deeper study behind the hows and whys and wherefore art thou of weather as a science as well as a passion. I've seen a scientist read passages from a book about a hurricane as if he was reading Shakespeare. We are all a mix of left brain and right brain as rivers of thoughts flow around inside our brain. And those of us who try hard to stay centered and convey facts do not like having to call a goose a duck or a chicken a turkey. It's just not right. I love dark thigh meat of turkey way better than a white chicken breast so don't tell me they are the same because they are both poultry and have feathers, wings and they can fly short distances. So I'm going to post one of the greatest scenes in one of my all time favorite plays below and let you figure it out. Tennessee Williams was a great writer, way ahead of his time and not afraid to talk on topics that in his day were considered a third rail. And he hated lies and pretense and he drew that anger out in his writing from his hopelessly, real characters in honest, gut wrenching situations.


Cindy is a storm that was formed from moisture in the tropics in June and moved as an entity North into the Gulf of Mexico. Cindy is taking aim on the Northern Gulf of Mexico coastline as storms tend to do caught up in the flow of the atmosphere. Usually a storm needs to be bigger, reaching up into the atmosphere to feel the tug of the Northern call of dipping frontal boundaries and the call of the North Pole. Weakly formed systems usually go NW across the Yucatan and slither off to Mexico slamming some small town with heavy rain. This year weather features far away have messed up the usual flow of life on the planet this year especially in the tropics. Extreme heat in the Southwest a bit early for this time of year has created a stronger ridge in the SW and the doorway to Mexico and the adjacent BOC was not readily available. Cindy is trying to pull more to the west with every moment that passes but that door is closed tighter than normal with an "out of order" sign hanging in the tropical breeze.

latest_wv_loop.gif (535×440)

Cindy is the white arrow of moisture from the Yucatan...
..moving North into the Panhandle of Florida.
Curving a bit to the NW trying hard to gain longitude.
Last night that tail was temporarily displaced.
It almost split into two parts.

Before


After or really currently this morning


Dry Air
Wind Shear
ULL
All factors here in the odd appearance of Cindy

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The seemingly endless supply of moisture is being cut off.
Remnants of Bret are making it past that trench.
Refueling it a bit. Trying to...

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I'm not sure why the NHC went with the Tropical Storm designation for Cindy as most meteorologists I know (and I know a lot of meteorologists) will easily say this is Subtropical at best. There are many terms for storms that the NHC provides watches and warnings for and they are not all "tropical" and go by many names. Subtropical, extratropical, baroclinic are just a few of the names we use to describe a storm that is moving from the tropics out of the tropics with dangerous weather, high winds and associated dangers such as tornadoes some even have storm surge! Perhaps with all the attention on the new Potential Tropical Cyclone word usage they did not want to keep changing names from PTC3 to Subtropical Storm Cindy to Tropical Storm Cindy when and if she got her act together. Perhaps they thought it would confuse the general public so trying to be positive here but spoiler alert Cindy never has gotten her act together. Cindy may pull it together seconds before landfall near Texas around the Sabine River, but her rain is displaced very, very far to the East kicking up high seas and pounding Mississippi and delivering squalls with tornadoes to Ft. Walton Beach, Florida. So I don't want to post any cones and discussions on landfall regarding where the "center" of Cindy will cross land as it's not relevant right now. I said days ago the Sabine River area between Texas and Louisiana would most likely be the landfall. That area includes places like Beaumont Texas as well as areas as far West as Houston that can and will see some heavy rain. Then there is a huge gap between that area and the area being impacted over the last few days and tomorrow by the huge, plume of moisture from the depths of the Caribbean.


Mike from Spaghetti Models is awesome.
Know why?
Nice family, fun to talk to and ....
...he has his finger on the pulse of humanity.
He's deceiving as he is way deeper than he pretends.
He knows exactly what people want and need to see.

These graphics are at the top of his page.
Sort of like a meteorological pirate map.
X marks the spot.

No cone today gang.
Well maybe later today I'll post the updated cone.
Check back for updates often...

Today I gave you Shakespeare, Tennessee Williams and loops.
Who needs a cone for a storm that is hard to define?

So I'll just say this about Cindy this morning. Let's drop the pretense of it being a Tropical Storm as currently it looks like a Dragon lying on it's side with a dangerous tail. A very dangerous tail, and the extent of that danger will play out over the next few days in real time depending on fast changing atmospheric conditions. One town up the road, far inland may get massive flooding and another area that thought they would get flooding may escape weather altogether. So this is a set up that deserves a name with it's watches, warnings and heightened public awareness but if you live somewhere in the SE from Houston to the beaches of the Carolina including towns deep up towards the Appalachians and it's foothills YOU NEED TO PAY ATTENTION TO YOUR LOCAL WEATHER and the NWS. The NWS covers the information for all of the towns, hamlets and cities along the path of Cindy. 

You have a choice for that information.


Or put in your town and the word weather into Google.



You can ask Alexa but she might try to sell you a time share..

"What is the weather now in Biloxi Mississippi" 
Try that ... let me know how it turns out.

http://www.spaghettimodels.com/localweather


Or check back here or on TWITTER.
Please join twitter.
You never have to post anything.
You just get instant news, weather and sports.
Come on how awesome is that for introverts?

Really meteorologists want to do their best to warn you...
...of approaching, dangerous weather.
And sometimes it's hard to explain the dangers.
And frustrating.
Cause people ask for the cone and the weather is ....
.....................way over there.

East of the center that is still trying to form.
Someone said this looks more like a Noreaster..
I can't even spell it right.
Southern girl...

Warning video a bit bloody but...
..sometimes life is ugly.
Sometimes a storm looks bad but it's still a storm.
And the effects of weak Cindy could be very ugly.
Time will tell.


Trying to make some sense of it all.
Best thing I can do is warn you to pay attention...
..to fast changing weather.

Mark Sudduth is where Cantore probably wishes he was ...
Waveland Mississippi.
A town used to hurricanes and no canes and Cindy.


http://hurricanetrack.com/


I'll update later today often...
...especially when there is more to say.

Besos BobbiStorm
Follow me on Twitter for immediate updates.
@bobbistorm on Twitter

Ps The gang at the NHC is trying hard to do the best they can...
There's nothing normal about Cindy..




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