Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Sunday, February 07, 2016

Super Bowl Sunday Storm With Hurricane Force Winds. Cruise Ship Anthem of the Seas Passengers Have Stories to Tell. Next stop Tip of Long Island & NE


No that's not a Hurricane.
It's a winter storm.
A very impressive winter storm.

Incredible visuals coming in for this photogenic but dangerous storm.




Seems the only thing the Royal Caribbean didn't plan on with their new cruise ship was a Hurricane Force Winter Storm named Mars. Well, okay The Weather Channel named it Mars not the NHC. But, it's producing hurricane force winds and waves in the Atlantic... exactly where the beautiful new cruise ship is cruising.



People were posting earlier from the ship.
Relatives were asking for information.
People were asked to stay in their cabins.
It seems they have made it past the worst of it.


The map for this ship's location is posted below.
Current as of the time Denver beat Carolina....


Thanks to Mike Clay I relayed that information to people who needed to know.


Really years back I was on a cruise ship coming back from San Juan.
A fast developing tropical storm in the Bahamas was intensifying.
They had to cancel the stop in Nassau.
Not a problem for Miami kids really.
But with permission from the Cuban Govt they tacked back along the coast.
I could see the mountains off in the distance.
So close and yet so far.
In truth "seeing Cuba" and the extra day at sea was a holiday.
But the day before most people were sick ... 
...except me and my best friend and a very friendly crew.

So... I got lucky. 
Not everyone gets lucky.
 Just shows you anytime of year you might have to deal with a storm.
Rare... but it happens. 

Warnings have been posted. There is some coastal flooding.


More information on the storm on their websites.


Some people call this Winter Storm Mars.
Mostly those who live and die by The Weather Channel.

Perhaps we could call this Super Bowl Sunday Storm?

http://outerbanksvoice.com/2016/02/07/high-winds-coastal-flooding
-likely-from-super-sunday-storm/

Seems it's going to be called that in OBX.
The Outer Banks are used to storms like this.
So when people report flooding or damage it's worth paying attention.
However it's Super Bowl Sunday so many have missed this storm.


One of my favorite areas is dealing with flooding.
Ocean Isle Beach.



The storm may be moving North towards Long Island, New England.
But tonight off the coast of Carolina it's rough out there.
Hurricane strength rough out there... 
... hope we don't hear of any other shipping problems.

Seems New England didn't get a Super Bowl Trophy this year.
But they are going to get the Super Sunday Storm..

This storm was forecast to be a bomb... 
A tightly wound storm.


While watching politics and football we have been waiting for this to form.
It formed.
Seems the Royal Caribbean felt they would be okay.
You know "no worries" and all... 
...and hopefully they were right.

Enjoy this video of a ship caught in a North Atlantic Storm.
NOT the Anthem... another type of ship.
A ship caught in a storm... 



Every storm is different but you get the idea.

If you wanted the Broncos to win... you got it.
If you are a Panthers fan... hopefully next year.

Besos BobbiStorm

Ps... Daylight should bring some awesome visual loops.


Evolution of the Storm.

sat_wv_east_loop-12.gif (640×512)





Winter Storm MARS! From Coast of Carolina to New England. Hurricane Like Blizzard on the Move.




This Nor'easter will be known as Winter Storm Mars by TWC.


Now you know in case you wondered...

Look at the last few frames. See the storm wrap up.

latest72hrs.gif (947×405)

If this were hurricane season we would have a named storm.

vis-animated.gif (720×480)

Storm warnings have been hoisted for New England.
If you want to learn about New England weather go straight to the source.


So of course I Googled it. 
I didn't need to but I love to Google.

Good site. It has it's own .org site...

http://www.blizzardof78.org/

Winter of 78... 
How many remember that?

El Nino Falling... 
Crazy winter of 1977-1978

On a personal note my mother loved New Hampshire.
I'm not sure why... but she did.
One year I was held hostage on a family trip.
A 17 year old with 2 young brothers fighting in the back seat.
My mother made my father get off the highway and drive around.
And around... and around.
The New England architecture...
The sailboats (um we have sailboats in Miami)
My boyfriend was home from college.
I was stranded in the back seat driving North to Boston.
The one family trip I think we ever took "up north"
She really loved New Hampshire.
... I liked Boston... 

NH coast:



Looking back it just looks like South Maine to me.
My best friend loves Maine. 
You be the judge.

Maine coast:


I think I like Maine better. Portland.

So all eyes are on New Hampshire right now.

We were told Iowa would make all the difference.
Then after a few flips of the coin we were told...
... New Hampshire really will tell us.............

I imagine after New Hampshire they will say SEC Conference Primary.

Either way weather could be a factor but we will know more tomorrow.


The loops show a developing cyclone in the Atlantic.
Headed towards New England.

goes_nam_1070_100.jpg (900×700)

No I'm not a Cruz supporter ;)
I'm an Independent. I watch. I wait.
Enjoy the debate but will decide who I vote for in November.

But I do have to say interesting to see Kasich enjoying himself.
I'm sort of surprised he's still there in the game.
Go figure.

http://www.msnbc.com/msnbc/watch/kasich-engages-in-nh-snowball-fight-617728579981

Maybe we should enjoy this process a little more.
People are tired of fighting.
They are angry and they do want change.
But nice to see some people enjoy having a little fun.


Enjoy the weather you got ;)

Besos BobbiStorm

Ps I'm a Miami girl. Yeah I do like Rubio some but...
... Kasich probably is better at making snow balls.
He will have lots of snow to play with the next few days.
Maybe rather than another debate...
We should have Hilary and Bernie have a snowball fight ;)






Friday, February 05, 2016

Crane Collapse During a Snow Squall in NYC. 1 Dead, 3 Seriously Injured.


Was a snow squall responsible for the crane collapse in NYC earlier today? Or was the forecast weather event not properly forecast?  It's a question I wonder on and I'm sure many will have different answers. Had they expected to have strong snow squalls would they not be working with the crane or  ???


Stories get told in different ways.
My son is visiting from New York and he told me about the crane collapse.
I was busy cooking for the Jewish Sabbath ...
...and guests from out of town..

We talked on how those tall cranes can be scary.
How often they spin in the wind and we are told they are meant to do that.

Political stories were on MSNBC.
Financial News Channel was running.
The Weather Channel.

Later in the day someone asked me if I knew the person who was killed.
I don't. Not that I know of though someone I know may have known him.
It's a small world in some circles.
His father is a well known pediatrician in Brooklyn.
Sad. Recently married ...suddenly dead.
Sitting in his car... he probably never saw it coming.
Crazy story.
Crazy cranes.

From the story below. 
http://www.theyeshivaworld.com/news/boruch-dayan-emmes/383454/tragic-update-man-killed-in-crane-collapse-is-orthodox-jewish-man-dr-david-wichs-zl.html


The snow storm was what we call an over producer.
Models showed it might be stronger than expected.

A good reminder that you don't need a hurricane to bring loss of life.
You don't need a Twister to pick you up and toss you far away.
Sometimes accidents happen.

Could it have been prevented?

I don't know.
I'm sure the Mayor of New York will be investigating...
...how to stop it from happening again.

Be glad for what you have...
Never underestimate the weather.

Besos BobbiStorm

Ps. There are conflicting reports still as to if he was in the car or not.
So you can read up on updates but either way he died.
3 people were injured ... very sad.


Thursday, February 04, 2016

Winter Waiting in the Wings... Questions on East Coast Storm Next Week.. Models disagree as much as political candidates.


What a difference 5 days make. 

The top right picture shows a rather balmy winter in the East.
Rain has been the game this past week or two.
Next week snow may become the player.
In the 5 day Snow Forecast snow edges South ....
...it even teases the Carolinas a bit.

sat_wv_east_loop-12.gif (640×512)

Frontal boundaries.
ULL out in Atlantic looking like a ghost cyclone.
Look towards the Pacific and you will see the next real player.

Yes winter makes a come back over the next few days. We have had the illusion of Spring in January but it's just an illusion. February brings it all back though it may be a sliver of winter compared to some years. Some weather pundits have put out the possibility that a good part of March will be colder than January. That's hard to see play out however changes are down the road.

In Florida , South Florida they are having the illusion of a rainy season during the dry winter months. The next forecast strong cold front is forecast to make it all the way down into South Florida. Oddly when I was there for a week or two it was cool, as soon as I left it warmed up. Go figure.

There is much discussion on the storm that is due to impact the East Coast late Monday into Tuesday before it exits off the coast near the Outer Banks or Del Marva or... no one is sure because the models disagree on specifics more than the Republican and Democratic party. Seriously...

And as with most Winter Storms be they the "A" type or the "B" type they evolve in real time. So tomorrow and Saturday we will have more information.

I'm posting a link to Larry Cosgrove's Facebook Page. He's very good. Very good with specifics and tomorrow I'll post some of the models. The models are a mute point right now as they haven't really agreed on much other than there is currently ample moisture and there are many questions as to what the end game will be. People in New England are watching as much as people in Virginia.

Excerpt below is from Larry Cosgrove's Facebook Page. 


https://www.facebook.com/larry.cosgrove

Take a look. 
At the moment he and many of us are sad on the passing of Maurice White.
Earth Wind and Fire.
Great band, beautiful music.

3 am... maybe snow and rain in Raleigh

There has been discussion about Friday's small snow event in places.
But even the websites don't agree for the next few hours.


Hmm 4 am til 8 am.

Big difference there.

Baltimore deals with a possible messy AM commute



So I'm wondering if we get any snowflakes.

They went from "maybe some flurries" 
to...
"just some snow flakes"
to...
"not much accumulation"
to..
"Ground is too warm, maybe on higher elevations"
to...
"a few areas might get a snow squall with more snow briefly"
back to..

"we most likely will just see rain"

So I ask...
If we can't be sure on the weather in 5 hours....
...how can we be sure on the weather in 5 days?

Sort of the way of the world when it comes to weather forecasts.


Sweet Tropical Dreams,

BobbiStorm

Ps... Remember September...




Tuesday, February 02, 2016

Groundhog Day Predictions. Winners and Winners and Losers in Iowa. February Weather Discussion




I've got a confession to make.
I've never really understood the whole Groundhog Day thing.
Then again I was raised in Miami and I never really got the Seasons thing.

Punxsutawney Phil seems to have been the clear cut winner here.
Rain or Shine.
Shadow or not Shadow everyone is watching him.
He didn't see his shadow and that means Spring.
How they figure that I don't know but it's a tradition.
So is thinking on Bill Murray.

What is it about Bill Murray and rodents?

My brother Jay loves Bill Murray.
Well he did I am guessing he still does.


This scene reminds me of a few candidates this morning who just left Iowa.
And did you know that a WAWA in IOWA would be redundant?
Did you know that parts of Caddyshack were filmed in Miami Shores?


See Miami a place where you can golf all year round...

When I worked for the City of North Miami Beach...
...they had their Annual Dinner Dance in Miami Shores.
Always seemed embarrassing to me... 
...but I digress.

There were 3 winners last night in Iowa.

1. Ted Cruz. Tho if he couldn't win in Iowa where could he win...
2. Marco Rubio for almost beating Trump.. came very close.
3. Bernie Sanders who basically tied and came from nowhere.

Miss Congeniality Award goes to Trump who was congenial in defeat.
Most Talented goes to Hilary Clinton who acted her way thru a slim victory.

The Real Winner of the Caucus was Iowa.
They seem to have found a way to get people to come in Winter.
And they spend a lot of money there... 
Seems a sneaky way to stimulate the economy in Iowa if you ask me.

Not a place most people want to be but all the candidates flocked there.
And all the men and women of the media followed them there.
And as soon as they could they hit the road for New Hampshire.

Kayla the blizzard descended upon Iowa.
Jim Cantore is dancing with Kayla as I type this..

Colonel Beauregard Lee in Georgia also didn't see his shadow.
He's probably politically incorrect this year.

http://www.cbs46.com/story/31115215/will-he-or-wont-he-beau-to-
make-groundhog-day-prediction

In Raleigh there is no sun so there is no shadow.

My weather people tell me weather will ramp up the next few weeks.

What will February be like?


Wintry.


So we have a way to go before the rest of the primaries....
Day by day.
Week by week.
Month by month we move towards Spring.

Spring segues into the Hurricane Season.

It's a crowded field out there in politics in one party.
And in the other party several people wish they had run.

Keep watching... 
It's a long, long time before the election.
We have to get through the whole 2016 Hurricane Season First.

The difference between politics and football is this... 
In politics you can find a victory anywhere.
In Football only one team can claim victory.
And there are only 2 options on Groundhog Day.
You either see your shadow or you don't.

You want to know who I am rooting for?

Carolina of course ;)

What does it mean to win?
Cam explains it best....

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wgf8bgfcqN8

I may be an Independent politically but I'm a Carolina Fan in Football.



Besos BobbiStorm

Ps. Winners don't go for the Field Goal they play to win.






Monday, February 01, 2016

Who Will Owe Iowa a Victory? Winter Storm Kayla Should Arrive After Midnight in Most Cities. But How Well Do You Know Iowa? It's a BIG State.


Des Moines is the capital of Iowa.
Again know I am only commenting on themes in this election.
I do not support any one candidate or party.
I'm an Independent. It's still far away from my world.
I'm just watching news and the weather and wondering.
One of my degrees is in International Relations.
Politics was one of my first loves.
So bear with me and well weather is topical today there.

My son who lives in Seattle used to live in Ames Iowa.

It's a big college town and they've seen the candidates often there.


It's a battle ground as is the whole state of Iowa is today.

The snow should begin in Ames tonight around 1 AM.
I imagine most people will be home by midnight.
What a difference a few hours could make weather wise.


So far Winter Storm Kayla seems to be kind to the Iowa Caucus.

Unless something changes drastically today Winter Storm Kayla does not seem to be attending any caucus this evening in Iowa.  Weather being weather and fluid could create small surprises but the general forecast is Kayla shows up when most caucus workers are home waiting to see the results.



Understand that Iowa is a large state and weather happens in various areas at different times. That said the weather in Des Moines is vastly different at times from Decorah during any given storm. When you live in Rochester Minnesota you hear about the storm systems coming in from Iowa and South Dakota. When you live in Des Moines it's more about Nebraska. Iowa is actually a larger state than Pennsylvania, though if you asked many on the East Coast they would think otherwise.


Geography is always locational. You've seen those maps of the United States according to New York City people I'm sure. As there has been so much discussion on how New Yorkers think I figured y'all could use a laugh.


I have 3 kids who live in New York City.
They cannot understand how 1 sibling went to live in Seattle.
They say it as if he took a wagon train to get there.

But today Iowa is about the size of Texas when it comes to the news.

Weather should not be a factor.
Hard to say... die hard types will go do their thing.
Some who think their candidate will win anyway may stay home and hunker down.
A lot of news people may be trapped in Iowa for a day or two longer than planned.
Can't imagine young voters eager to attend their first caucus for Sanders will care.
It's all a matter of perception.
How much people want to show up for their candidate.
How much they are unsure and will just stay home.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/news-and-events/quinnipiac-university-
poll/iowa/release-detail?ReleaseID=2320

A small factor maybe in that if the blizzard was not on it's way.
It would be a zero factor.

I'd have to say it may have a small factor.
In close races that may make a big difference.

Time will tell.

Either way Kayla is in Colorado moving East.

That's a Blizzard Warning NOT a Winter Storm Warning.


Hour wise it breaks down like this:


The snow isn't forecast to fall until sunrise in the NE part of the state.

Further West it could begin earlier.


Could more heavily populated areas in the West have a lower turn out?
And the areas in the East have a higher turn out?


http://iowacaucusproject.org/2015/08/what-types-of-people-participate-in-the-iowa-caucuses/


Good article from Drake University.
See NY map above ;)

Note larger cites with universities tend to have more liberal voters... 
Those out in small towns and on farms tend to be more conservative.
Could an early arrival in Sioux City and Des Moines have an impact?

Maybe.

Time will tell.

Keep watching.

For now Kayla is still far away to the West.

sat_ir_enh_east_loop-12.gif (640×512)

The Severe Weather for the South is now higher than it was yesterday.

Also note the Quad Cities in the SE of Iowa have the least weather happening.


Quad Cities seem a bit liberal.
Could that help Sanders and hurt Hilary?

http://marijuanapolitics.com/move-forward-with-bernie-sander
s-the-quad-city-times-urges-as-iowa-is-too-close-to-call/

Yup... only time will tell.

Besos BobbiStorm

Ps... There was also a great old movie .. play named State Fair.
All about the Iowa State Fair ;)













Sunday, January 31, 2016

January Thaw... Severe Weather in the South & Winter Rebounds in the North.



I've outlined the temperatures above 40 in blue.
60s in areas that often are frozen in January.
This is a January thaw... it's not Spring.
Though Ground Hog Day is coming soon...

In Iowa on Monday weather should not be a factor.



What comes after the thaw is a blast of winter once again.

Throughout most of Iowa weather ......

....should not stop anyone from going to a caucus.

Might be too warm for some... 

If the storm system was to speed up... it could be a problem.
But it's not forecast to hit until Tuesday.


Weather can sometimes play a part on caucus night
However people in Iowa are used to snow.
In North Carolina it would shut down everything.
They'd probably delay the primary ;)

Winter Storm Kayla.
Oddly its almost as warm today in Raleigh as it is in Jax
When you have warm weather in the South and Cold air Diving down.
You have Severe Weather where ever those forces meet.
Stay tuned.


Strong Sub Tropical Jet from El Nino will bring another round of severe weather.

So posting this reminder below.


 Winter Storm Kayla should be severe in the South.

And yet it will bring winter back into the Great Lakes.

Stay tuned. 

Tomorrow could be more a political storm than a winter storm.

It just may be a Maniac Monday.

Besos BobbiStorm