Colorful Convection in the Caribbean... EPAC Begins in 19 Days!

 

As we cruise into May....

this is where we pay attention.

Note the flow over Panana moving from the SW to NE

Also notice the flow moving NE from Mexico over the USA

Feeding the severe storms and chase weather we have ongoing.

Close up a look at this interesting box.

This region encompasses the Deep Caribbean and the Eastern Pacific. If you cut the map vertically, you will see this area as one region and what happens in one area impacts the other. Strong convection is moving off of Colombia which later in the season produces convection frequently that can develop and/or westbound tropical waves move into these juicy waters and make a tropical connection. It's a secondary Inter Tropical Convergence Zone that often feeds storm development in the EPAC. The EPAC Hurricane Season begins on May 15th so this is an area that bears watching. The fly in the ointment as seen below, is currently the flow is still from the SW to the NE meaning it'll blow back convection into our basin. Sometimes a storm forms in the EPAC and crosses over into the Caribbean early in the season.  Nothing is expected to happen, but if you're on a cruise down there the weather will be wonderful if you like stormy weather. This region also has many diving locations so it's important to watch it more than you look out into the Atlantic for tropical waves that will battle the Saharan Dust already in place moving off of Africa early this year.

A wild card is the early tropical waves running at low latitudes towards South America, sometimes in busy seasons you get an early one such as Bertha in July, but this is late April and they are just fun to watch. A brillian colorful display of convection on the various satellite images we watch, but remember it's not September nor is it even July! Wind flow will blow that convection apart and/or up towards another part of the Atlantic where water is not hot enough yet to develop. 

Stay tuned.

Prepare.

Get a plan.

During Irma's approach to Florida.....

... Miamians found a plan.

Everyone raced North towards Atlanta.

Survivors from that road trip.....

..,most likely will not do that again.

Cars were abandoned.

Gas Stations out of gas.

No Hotel Rooms ....

Just saying, panic is a great motivator.

But better to have a plan than panic!

Sweet Tropical Dreams,

BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter 

Everybody's got a cousin in Miami....

...come August and Septemeber

Everyone wants to get out of Miami 

Tropics Quiet. Saharan Dust Plumes Hit the Road.... Soon It'll Be Hurricane Season. Do You Have a Plan? Don't Blink.........

 

Our area that was highlighted yesterday....

.... is no longer mentioned.

As you can see from the loop above....

...the flow is from West to East still.

Caribbean is still out of the SW to NE

Not ready for prime time yet.

But time to think on your priorities.

Planning ahead is my best advice.

A look at the 5 day shows the HIGH.

Double barreled high on some days.

That tends to dry out the atmopshere in the SE

Fronts try and move South and collapse.

This is the MDR

Main Development Region.

Red - Saharan Dust.

The deeper the red... the stronger the dust.

Moving West towards the Islands.

Some SAL getting through.

And, there are fires in South Florida.

It's Fire Season there in the Glades.

Everything has it's season in nature. Winter is behind us, Spring is in sway and launches us towards the eventual start of the May Monsoons in the Miami area and then the Hurricane Season. We have Spring Training, Baseball and Mango Season that coincides with most of the tourists here for cool weather and outdoor festivals have gone elsewhere as really living in South Florida once the afternoon Monsoons begin at 3 PM is not for the faint of heart. 

In Raleigh my maple tree is deep, verdant green, covered with healthy new leaves illuminated by the afternoon sunshine. I can smell Summer as the flowers fade away and the Farmers's Market comes alive with local produce. 

And people here and in Miami are both talking about the Hurricane Season and the forecasts that predict we will go deep into the alphabet if all the forecasts verify.

I want people to remember one thing. When we say "prepare for hurricane season" we don't mean figure out which room you are going to ride out a hurricane in; most people pick the bathroom unless it's wide open with lots of windows to look at nature while taking a bath in which case find an interior walk in closet or a long hallway far from the front door. Preparing for a hurricane is not about the hurricane but about the long aftermath when the power is out, when the water is not yet fit to drink and your neighbor's ficus tree is in your pool. The ficus tree may also have clipped most of the tiles off of your roof but hopefully your shutters held safe.

It takes a good few weeks to get power back after a minimal hurricane in the densely populated Miami area, and so what will you do during then when there isn't even electric to run a ceiling fan?

Backgammon?

Write a novel on a lined paper notebook?

I guess you'd be busy weeding the plants and taking huge limbs of fruit trees that snapped in the wind off what was your garden.

Ask a local, ask an old timer....

What to do after a hurricane.........

Join a caravan Northbound on I95 out of South Florida stuck in traffic for hours, days. Make sure you have cans of gas to take with you as gas stations may be closed, blown away and/or not in working order.

I'm being honest. Not trying to scare you, just trying to be honest. 

It's not pretty. Those who are prepared and have a  plan, a generator and what to run the generator on are ahead of the game.

Link below. Good before and after advice.

https://www.cdc.gov/orr/infographics/br-hurricanes.htm

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter

Don't Blink.........

Yellow Circle in ATLANTIC? Who Had That On Their Bingo Card For April??? 10% Low Expectations................. But Yes, It's There..........

 

Quick update on the surprising early yellow X

10% NHC says not expected to develop.

But they did decide to post a special update.

When you look at this image below....

....shows why we are here today.

Red means HOT Water.

Orange red means HOT water.

But upper level winds are not there yet.......

........just because the water is hot!

And yet here we are....

I'll do a full update tomorrow.

Been online with friends staying here.

And definitely worthy of a post on a yellow circle.

Stay tuned.

Prepare for 2024 Hurricane Season.

It's only a matter of time...

IF THIS WAS MAY.............We'd Be All Over This..... Caribbean Convection

 

That' dark area in the sea of reds and golds is convection. Visible in many ways, but kind of fun to use an out of the box method here in Mid April. The Caribbean is coming alive........day by day.

Not ready for prime time yet.... 

Winds aloft blowing, flowing SW to NE

Not conducive for development.

And yet it hangs in there.

Stubbornly!

Huge sprawling Low....

...taking up the whole NE Atlantic.

Frontal boundaries moving along still.

Not there yet... still Spring.

This picture shows many things.

West to East.

New front moving East across USA/Canada

Sturbborn convection in Carib center stage.

Dry air ....early Sahran Dust.

Down low.... EPAC convection.

That's it for today.

Stay tuned.

Way tooo hot it Raleigh today.

But cool air promised for the weekend!

Sweet Tropical Dreams,

BobbiStorm

Good song about that Low far away...

..on the far side of the world.

 

 

OJ vs Hurricane Opal

 On June 12th, 1994 the world was rocked with a news story that went on to dominate the news cycle for the following year. It's a date and a time many will not forget. OJ Simpson a much beloved football player that broke many records in college and won the Heisman Trophy in 1968 for his incredible run at USC in the heart of LA was suddenly the suspect in his wife Nicole Simpson and her friend Ron Goldman's death! OJ went on after college to fame playing for the Buffalo Bills and infact had become quite the football hero, to many, as well as a public figure who had acted and was popular on TV. Everyone knew OJ and when you heard the term OJ it stood for a football hero, not that orange stuff in a glass in somewhere that comes from Florida.

OJ running from the police in a panic.

Making a White Ford Broncos suddenly popular ..

..and eventually the chase ended.

Much discussion on TV

Familes argued over OJ's innocence or guilt!

All the elements of a love triangle.

A husband's rage and revenge.

A husband set up to take the blame.

Glitzy California story and went on and on.

Then the trial........

This is a blog about what happens when an Iconic News Story collides with a hurricane in the process of intensifying and no one is paying attention to the hurricane. The OJ Trial after OJ being on the run in his Bronco that much of the whole nation watched in the early days of Cable News..... went long into a murder trial on the news every day, leaving everyone with the memory of the staying "if gloves don't fit, you must acquit" and all of America was watching live! People watched the trial, they sat at home with friends watching the trial, everyone having their own opinion arguing it out at work or at school or pretty much anywhere you went someone would ask what you thought of OJ. 

And then on October 3rd, 1995......

........FINALLY.....the verdict was in.

And, then people cheered or screamed foul play!

People argued.

People celebrated.

Meanwhile in the Gulf of Mexico.......

...during an epically busy hurricane season.

There was your typical October storm.

September 27, 1995

Everyone is watching OJ

A storm forms down near the Yucatan.

You know those slow forming storms.

Weak, nothing much.

Crosses the Yucatan.
Reforms and heads North.

You have all been there.

Think Michael.

Nothing until it was something.

On October 2nd it entered the GOM

It intensified into a hurricane.

Nothing much to look at yet.....

..compared to the trial of the century.

(at that time..)

Cable News vs a young TWC

Even local news was following the trial.

On October 4th Opal became a Cat 4.

160 MPH

Understand had this been any other busy year with an O storm in the Gulf of Mexico, nowhere to run and trapped and obviously making landfall somewhere it would have been a lead story on the news. Everyone would have been glued to their local weather or TWC and yet many were not..........

It did not make landfall at it's peak and it was a marginal Category 3 at landfall, but as many of you know when a hurricane traversed the Gulf of Mexico and had been strong enough to have 150 MPH winds it usually packs a strong storm surge that's just as important as if it was a Cat 2, Cat 3 or even a Cat 4! And in this case Opal ran like OJ for the end zone far inland creating flooding problems way past the point of storm surge and wind impacts.  Many complained they were not properly warned or didn't know how bad it would be and yes obviously anyone who obsesses on hurricanes was out shopping at the store and preparing for a hurricane landfall. But, the general public in the path of the hurricane.... well many missed the Intensification and wrote it off as a late season mild hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico. That was a big mistake for many caught unaware ....caught up in the drama of OJ and the trial, and again the verdict was read on October 3rd the day before Opal made landfall.

In my mind they are always connected.

Forever and always.

A good lesson......

.... never lose site of a hurricane in the GOM!

How could anyone ignore Jimbo?

Dave Schwartz called him that ;)

Never ignore a bull in a china shop...

...even during a big trial like OJ.

It'll make landfall somewhere if in the GOM.

Remember that this year....

...never stop chasing.

Never stop preparing for Hurricane Season!!

BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter

Top of the charts October 1995...

Florida Storms Continue. Tornadoes. Flooding. Storms Moving UP Into Carolinas. Hurricane Season 51 Days Away... EPAC Month Away. Early Named Storms in May???

You can find these radars live on Mike's Weather Page

I-95 in GA and Carolinas gonna be messy today

Coastal storms on the beach if you like wild weather.

Fronts still moving down........

...often spin up early season named storms in May.

Something to think on.....

Let's start here..........

...from far away and wide view.

You can see what we're watching today.

Chasing, tracking, discussing.

Let's go in closer

A stream of moisture is zooming up from the Yuke

Crashing head on with a strong spinning Low.

Tornadoes, Flooding, Spring Storms.

Note the triangular appearance on this image...

...on the line still down by FL

And the moisture feed from SE into E Coast!

Note the little impulses down in the EPAC

They want to spin....

...but winds coming in still from the West....

Eventually we should have an EPAC season

On time?

May 15th?

Definite Maybe

???

Over by Africa......

the usual early season LOW wave like features form

Turning pink and purple on the Mimic

You have a rich, moist feed down in the EPAC

Even a few pink purples 

And from the YUKE up to NW FL

Moisture laden energy feeding the storms.

That'll move up into the Carolinas today.

Virginia also.....

Speaking of pinks and purples,.

Too low, too soon.

Mother Natures Way of Saying.

Next Up Hurricane Season.

Coming Soon ....

And yes I'm going to remind you.

51 Days Til Hurricane Season 

Less than a stack of cards.

With fronts still moving down towards Florida then going flat, flatter and flatter as we get closer to May it's likely, possible tho not probable but worth thinking on that we could see early named storms especially in that region of the Eastern Gulf of Mexico. Once the Yucatan gets into play, it's something to pay attention to as it often births baby tropical storms in May that crash eventually into the West Coast of Florida somewhere depending on the flow and the geometry of the pattern!

Playing around with the phone.

Nespresso in one hand the phone in the other.

Thinking out loud.

Thoughts on EPAC below.

So.........

Prioritize

Get a plan

Figure it out now.

Way easier than trying to later

When there's some sudden TS Warning

upgraded to a Hurricane Warning

And, you're all "what the heck it's only May?!?!"

Don't be that person.

Diamonds may be a girl's best friend........

...BUT good shutters & a generator may be your best friend!

https://firmanpowerequipment.com/blogs/news/storm-preparedness-have-your-firman-ready One of Mike's biggest supporters should definitely be supported by us and they have a great website with lots of info!

(that house is outta power ....whoosh, gone)

Sweet Tropical Dreams!

BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram

Severe Weather with Tornado & Flooding Warnings in Tornado Alley in the South.... Live Chase Day Today... From Louisiana into Misssissippi & Alabama

 

Of course what gets into Alabama...

edges into Florida Panhandle and Georgia .

This is a textbook "bow echo" pushing East.

Particularly Dangerous Situation there.

In motion you can see the need to push East..

Bow Echo....developing in real time.

Tornado, Hail, Severe Weather and Flooding

All concerns today.

Easy to follow the radars.......

...on Mike's Weather Page

www.spaghettimodels.com

And you can watch Reed chase...

...that's what I'm doing.

While doing other things this morning!

Ps...of course TWC is live...

As cells move from Hammond to Picayune!

Stay tuned.

BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter

More a Lousiana Wednesday....

...but a good song.

At least this isn't night...

..and ppl can see the storms.

And pay attention to the warnings.

Nighttime tornadoes are the worst!