Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Thursday, August 31, 2006

Ernesto

The NHC did a great job .. in my opinon on track which is what we expect out of them. No one expects them to be the new Miss Cleo on the block and know for sure everything about hurricanes as hurricanes are part of a nonstop, non static process of the atmosphere which is very fluid and full of never ending, non-stop nuances that are constantly rearranging. Can you predict for sure where a the colors in a lava lamp will go with perfection? No..

Those of us who love hurricanes and study them enjoy the challenge and are constantly amazed at the many possible scenarios that could happen with so many multiple possibilities. If we were simplistic and boring people we would play Chess or Monopoly or be accountants or some other routine job with lots of controls and routine.

Hurricanes are wild and very unpredictable.

The fact that the NHC could take a cluster of clouds and rainfall far away in the distant Atlantic and predict where it would go down the road is awesome.. to come even within 100 miles is amazing, 50 more so.. it is a fine art that has been developed over time.

Let me explain this..

Once along time ago people woke up, got dressed, ate their porridge and looked outside to see what the weather was and went off to work.. While out at work the surf began to get funny, clouds began to move in and somewhere someone said, "oh looks like rain!" and they kept working thinking it was only a rainstorm.

On Miami Beach in 1926 when some people left their home at nightfall to go to temple for Rosh Hashonnah Services they saw the rain falling and the streets flooding and thought, "oh wow, this is a lot of rain" and debated on going back to their little apartments instead of getting soaked or in deeper water. They did not know they were walking through the waters of the Atlantic Ocean and it wasn't a "heavy rainstorm" but the Great 1926 Hurricane that ate Miami and spit it out like a sea monster on it's way across the Ocean. The rain stopped, people's houses fell down, they crawled out of bathtubs and model T Fords and tried to drive to Miami to see if their relatives or friends were okay and when the back side of the storm came racing in they were washed in their Model T Fords out to sea.. never to be heard from again, a body along with the many bodies found and buried in that terrifying Category 4 Storm.

We have come so far in hurricane prediction. We still have a ways to go with predicting hurricane intensity. But, we know when they are coming, we know how to prepare, we know what an eye is, we know down to the minute when a strong band is about to hit and we should be very grateful, not kvetchy whiny children bitching because "oh they were off by 1o to 15mph and it never became 55mph before it hit"

You guys want Miss Cleo? Ask around, am sure she is here somewhere making money doing something but she is not trying to get a meterology degree I promise you and she is not working on her Masters or Doctorate and dealing with shortsighted funding from a government still reeling from the Post Katrina Stress Syndrome. She is not begging for more flights, for money for flights, money for employees to hire and not begging the Castro brothers to fly over "their island" so that they could give a better forecast.

In 1926 there were 2 tropical events BEFORE the Great Miami Hurricane of 1926. One small hurricane that was a "tree trimmer" and an Ernesto sort of tropical storm that came 3 days earlier, THREE and was a "bust" and when there was even the slightest, smallest article about another one coming possibily, moving this way from the West Indies people laughed like they knew all about hurricanes....

They didn't.

We do today because of the great work that the National Hurricane Center does.. and we should be grateful, not pissy because "it never became a hurricane"

Well, sorry I didn't win the lotto either guys this week. I bought food and batteries and didn't get a storm. Boo hoo...

Grow up and stop complaining and know how serious a business this is and with how many variables there are involved.

Personally, I thought the upper level low to it's north would cause some shear. But, even I thought it might be a bit stronger than it was. Oh well.. I was right on it crossing Key Largo and nicking the SE coast of Florida before going back out to sea but I thought it would have intensified a bit more too.

There are more waves out there, more chances for them to get intensity right.

Maybe if the government would give more money to the NHC to do it's job and give them another five or ten years they will tell you exactly how strong some storm will be when it hits my home in Key West five years from now ... because hopefully that is where I will be. Getting Cuban Coffee somewhere in the morning and walking over to the Grotto to light a candle and boarding up my house on the advice of the National Hurricane Center that a Category 1 storm with winds no stronger than 83 mph will cross Truman and Simonton at exactly 7:39pm on September 19, 2011.

But, for now........ I think they are doing a bang up job and everyone should be happy this one was a dud and not a problem because there are other storms on the horizon and they might just possibly be that big storm that Miami wants to have to feel justified for the NHC to issue a Hurricane Watch...

Going to work... glad to have a job and glad my blue tarp is still on my roof and glad my electric is back on and .. can't wait to be living in Key West some day.

Love ya, Bobbi

Wednesday, August 30, 2006

Power Problems.. and why we buy batteries...

quick check in here while I have the power on......

Winds have been stronger this morning than they were yesterday or last night.

I have a weak transformer that doesn't do well in any kind of wind so I have been without power often today. FPL said as soon as the winds die down some .. it should be okay. We are keeping off the AC and the computer so the power surges don't mess anything up. Cable TV has had outtages in the area as well. Only four houses are attached to my electric pole but we are part of the over 7700 people experiencing outtages it seems. All a matter of perspective as my daughter Dina says.. home with kids who are out of school with wierd electrical issues.... (could be worse)

Phones work and the wind is refreshing as we now have the AC off and the windows open. Now if I could keep the electric on the rest of the day.. it would be good.

Oh........and if the heavier rain this afternoon doesn't leak through the blue tarp on the roof.. so far so good but am sure the tarp isn't on that well because of the high winds and so let's all have one big prayer circle here for my tarp .. thank you!

Hey.. I could always move to Maine, Sharon still has a house there :)

Going off, before I get thrown off as we are experiencing some gusty squalls that are stronger now that the storm is further away.

Anything else? Nope... managed to check mail, make dinner and put up some coffee, take some tylenol and if we lose power AGAIN... I'll actually go to sleep.

Only so much you can do .. you can't win all the battles all the time, working on winning the war.
Rivky woke up, looked around and told me that Mexico got a Category 3. How come we couldn't get that. She wants a Cat 3. I just stared.. no words... kids don't care about things like blue tarps or electric as long as they have junk food Mommy bought for the storm and ...batteries.

Always buy batteries.. watching Ernesto leave town ..

Bobbi.. be back later when I know the electric will stay on.
Why do I ALWAYS have backyard electric pole issues?

Jimmy Buffett Morning - Tropical Storm Warning

It's a beautiful, breezy morning in Miami. Winds have been gusting to the high 20s and the barometric pressure is a low 29.69 and falling.

Funny, but it seems windier now than it was last night. And, going to keep this short as I keep losing power which does come back on in a few minutes but it can't be good for the computer and... frankly, I'm relaxing, listening to "The Great Jimmy Buffett" that I picked up at some store recently, made in Holland of all places...and watching the spinning pinwheel system on radar as Ernesto slowly crosses the general Miami area somewhere due west of me with a lower pressure now than he had last night. Go figure that one...

They have kept the winds at 45mph but the pressure did drop as he slid, slowly over the warm water of the River of Grass to my west. Maybe he is stronger but they don't want him to know it.. A little knowledge is a dangerous thing, you know? So, Ernie is gonna stay 45mph even though his pressure is dropping and he is making the tall, sawgrass bend in the Seminole Wind of Wednesday morning in Florida.

For now I am home and probably will stay home today as I have my two youngest kids home and a transformer that likes to go snap, crackle and pop every half hour or so. And, if I need I can do work from the house and get to know the library program better as long as my power stays on. If not... oh well... will listen to Kiss Country or the Weather Radio.

Zalmy, the youngest, has that pouty look like he was robbed of a "REAL STORM" that is usually most seen on his face when the Redsox lose to the Yankees.

Rivky, the youngest girl is asleep still, tucked under the covers with her hair not frizzing yet and still beautifully straight. This to a 14 year old with wavy hair is a major concern, loss of power means her AC goes off, her hair frizzes up and I never hear the end of it. She's beautiful and so is her hair. She looks like Pocohontas asleep.

And my 17 year old is at his girlfriend's parent's house making it much quieter here without fraternal fighting between him and Zalmy.

Life in Miami, the morning after the storm although the storm is still nearby and their is a strong wind out there and one massive strong, brightly colored band down near Homestead that is supposed to be rotating around the center of the storm and should pull in here later for a brief stop on its rotational travels.. Time will tell....

And, as for me... I'm listening to Grapefruit, Juice Fruit and soon the Cuban Crime of Passion will come on.

This CD is great. Has a lot of songs that don't have my friend's favorite songs on it, few songs with the harmonica :) playing as much as Barefoot Children in the Rain :) or some of his other favorites. I have so many Jimmy Buffett CDs that I have received as presents from someone who likes to remain anonymous.. except that they all have his signature and they all scream his name... what can I say? Some people belong to Music Clubs and I never signed up that I remember but well... some people remember and know what forever means. So, I actually feel guilty when I BUY a Jimmy Buffett CD or cassette at some old music store. But, I do... because how can you walk past a picture of Jimmy on the cover, with his hair still long, sun-bleached strands windblown across his face and that smile that he used to have, he probably still has... that looks like someone else's smile and well..tugs at my heart so...I bought it for $8.99 and when I listen to "Why Don't We Get Drunk" (and screw" which is the 6th song on this CD I will remember the first time I heard Jimmy sing it at the FLICK back when... forever meant forever, and I suppose it still does..

Because... he is the Great Jimmy Buffett... and my friend had and has great taste in music.

As for me.. Bobbi.. gonna throw some cards (the emperor and two of cups fell out earlier near the Chariot) and :) gonna make some breakfast, maybe start a diet (haha) and watch TWC as long as I have power and work a bit on personal things as well as library stuff and maybe I will take a break and work on working myself back into my novel. Maybe I need to take that trip I forever put off to Oklahoma to really finish it, maybe.. Hot there today, 90s it says on TWC.

And, if I had a working car I would pack the kids in and drive down to Key West, like Jimmy did back in 71 or 72 the day he played at the FLICK in the evening that I watched him .. when he got back from his first trip down there in his friend's crazy car and... Key West is Key West is Key West.. like it was when my great, grandparents lived there and when I live there again one day.

Musing in Miami, with the window open and watching the tall Christmas Palm dance back and forth and clouds fly by fast and ...

We'd go down to the corner drug and this is how we survived..who is gonna steal the peanut butter and who is gonna steal the sardines... Yep, that's Jimmy... Hurricane food... and if he ever got rich he was gonna pay the minimarket back.. and I'm hoping Jimmy did pay that minimart back... and after I finish this I am going to put on my favorite CD called "Songs of Margaritaville" on that was made personally for me... for those days when I can't get on the Overseas Highway and drive home to the home where my heart beats a little faster, my muse is a little happier and I am myself.. Just Bobbi, enjoying the tropical wind and the scent of the frangipangi in a tropical breeze that crossed the straits from Cuba just a few hours earlier..

Bobbi
(thank you, always and forever)
(pps... I didn't write this, the music inside me did and posting it fast before I lose power again... )

Tuesday, August 29, 2006

Ernesto a Dry Run for Florence? I was right on landfall..

So.. Shayna calls me from Philly and says she had thunderstorms nonstop, wild lightning, there are 5,000 people without power and there is street flooding everywhere..

She wanted to know if I had bad weather.

I hung up on her!

That kind of night.

Seriously, I should have stayed at the beach.

We had some rain, we had some wind. About what I expected though I thought we would have more wind in the squalls. Then again I thought we would get more squalls.

Annoyed I spent money for supplies I knew I wouldn't need but as a mother you have to realize you are setting an example for the kids for the future and if you want them to take storms seriously and prepare you have to show them you do. You can't say.. "no, I'm broke, it's the end of the month..we are just gonna wing it!"

So.. now I have supplies for Ernesto. We did eat the Heath Cookies for dinner as I never buy cookies or cake. With Coffee, unreal.. very good. Oh.. and I had a hard boiled egg with chili mustard sauce.

And, I am ending the evening with some mint tea with real Nona Leaves Israeli style. No, I am not Israeli, I am real Southern but.. I spend a lot of time in Israeli restaurants :)

So.. that is that.. having mint tea and talking to my hurricane buddy friend and..... going to call it a night.

Nice to be able to watch a storm coverage on TV and not in the dark on battery tv stuck with only local coverage.

Bonus part.. got the kids to clean up the house before the storm!

Meteorologically speaking..the storm has slowed down and is barely moving, changed directions and it is making the turn it seems. Now what?

Heard Jim Cantore was on South Beach tonight and was being asked things by locals he couldn't say on The Weather Channel. He said that would be for "another channel" and something about South Beach people take that "free country thing" real seriously. Hmmmm, one wonders what his fans are asking them or what they are asking him to autograph :)

Funny. I still wish Dave Schwartz (no relation or relationship) covered the storms. Bet Dave Schwartz down on South Beach or in Key West would be funny as hell.

Who shot the sheriff indeed lol.

From Miami... quiet tropical rain falling and small gusts flying by.. if you wanted real weather today you should have been in Philly trying to make Shayna feel better, she HATES thunderstorms.

Over and out.. from Miami.. and watching waves that may be Florence and come this way as the models show currently.

Again.. I said this storm would come in around Upper Matecumbe and Key Largo and I was right and more so.. it seems to be turning and doing as I said yesterday, nicking the SE coast of Florida before going back out to sea.. that would be three nicks.. Haiti, E Tip of Cuba and... now SE Florida.. maybe.. will see for sure in the morning. I did think it would be 10mph stronger though.. oh well...
Bobbi :)
megweetch

ERNESTO TIME.. Putting Away the Flying Missles...

fast round up here before I go clean up the house and hunker down .. which means I want to watch the local news coverage :)

The shelters are open and mostly it seems they are filled with local police and officials. Very few people there now but maybe after a few good bands people will go over.. Local high school, North Miami Beach High School specifically.

Most the people I met seemed to want to play it on the safe side, prepare for the worst but they aren't expecting much. Katrina last year IN MIAMI taught us that. When your 50 year old ficus tree that covers your whole yard lands on your broken barrel tile roof... suddenly you worry on Tropical Storms.

I did see one semi-drunk transient type who hangs outside around one of my local Walgreens warn the other one who was slightly. um... drunk... that a storm was coming. Very protective, very sweet actually. The guy walking by smiled, nodded...the lady who I know from the library where all the "locals" hang out told him to "be safe and stay inside" he nodded, and walked slowly away with his cane...she looked after him and had the look of concern and worry on her face before she climbed into her friend's broken pick up truck and lifted the few bottles of water she bought and what looked like an oversized flashlight. I worried a bit on her, I know her from the libary as I said... nice, sweet, lost lady.. hope she has someone to be with in the storm, possibly the older guy with the bandage on his arm who was driving the pick up truck. The world is made up of all kinds and not everyone has a safe house in the burbs with rolladen shutters.

I have.. a house in the burbs that has jalousie windows, no shutters and a blue roof, though it is not in that bad shape but.. there is a weak part and I hope it will be fine. The house has a safe place to go and I have brother and best friend a few blocks away.. 45 miles per hour and the house is fine.. but if you are the sweet old, drunken transient who walks with the cane, sits in the library and lives down by the rockpit (lake) with other homeless people.. it isn't so hard to hunker down.

People are out around their house picking up last minute things. Garbage cans, plants, anything that can be a flying missle in the one big squall that hits your block..

Most everyone I know has said the same thing to me.. over and over.. "I hope I don't have to go to work on Wednesday" lol...

Well... will see..

So far, I think the NHC has been on the money track wise.

My son Mendy went to his girlfriend's house...Casa.. and so we are down to two.. me and Zalmy who is 12 and Rivky who is 14. Maybe I will go to my brothers or maybe I will call my friend and go to her house.. we will see...

Everyone has done what they need to do from what I can see around the hood and ... we are all watching the news... the weather channel.. CNN and.. listening a bit to the weather radio. Yes I have enough batteries to keep watching when the power goes out... umm .. if..

Bobbi

AT THE BEACH WITH ERNESTO..

Miami- Went to the Beach, waves picking up..

Beautiful day at the beach. Took the morning off and took my youngest son to the beach. He's 12. It's one of those things you just "HAVE TO DO" while the waves are small and it's safe and it's beautiful. Just to touch the storm and really see it blowing in.

Wow. Unreal. Went over to Haulover Beach by the Pier and got something to eat, drink and sat by the bar and watched the television coverage that was on.. as it is everywhere. Rosemary, really RORO who works there was warm, friendly as always and talked to my friend Smith who was busy closing down the pier. Everyone working there was in tie down mode... people visiting were in watching mode.

Tourists, construction workers from nearby condos... it was nice. Really nice.

And, the water was mild, just a few white caps and blue skies. In the hour or so we sat there the seas picked up and a roaring, wild surf began to pound it's way in onto the shore. A shore where a few families sat together on the sand watching the waves come in while surfers played at surfing nearby.

We walked down.. hung around... It was amazing but mostly so amazing because I have never been at the beach when you could visibly see the difference occurring before your eyes. We were there about three hours. By the end you could barely stand in the waves ankle high. Pounding rollers began to pound the shore and the undertow got so strong that you could see the waves break in rollers... curving, crashing beautiful rollers hitting the shore and spraying foam up all over my little Hawaiian skirt and tank top. My son's Redsox hat safely tucked in my beach bag he ran up and down the sand where the water barely hit enjoying himself like.. like.......like a kid. No swimming in such water, it was a day for watching.

I interviewed a few people and a few of the guys working there. Most don't like rain, they are beach types who like sunshine. One admitted he loves storms and enjoys hurricanes. Surfers just wanted to see better waves and yet.. they said it was getting so choppy that he was hard to surf and the slope of the beach was getting bad with the undertow.

So we watched.

There were no squalls coming in, just a storm somewhere out in the Straits getting it's act together.. you could feel it. It might not show on recon stats or with advisories but I am telling you.. it is slowly going to gather some strength. On the TV you can see banding occurring.

Otherwise, Sharon and I did breakfast. I went to Walgreens and bought some batteries to have and some water to have and maybe I'll use them for this storm and maybe not.. or the next storm as Florence is out there hiding somewhere in the Atlantic and showing herself in models that we watchers are watching.

The kids are off school. People are off work or going home early. Ran into Magda at the store and she asked me if I wanted to come over and keep her company for a hurricane party as her kids are away and her husband is on duty at the hospital. Told her maybe I would if she had the right supplies :) and leave the kids at my brother down the block for a while and we can talk in the storm. Roberta, my sister-in-law and I got donuts and coffee at Krispy Kreme.

We are ready for the storm.

What do I think? I think like everyone I spoke to thinks.. that you don't underestimate a tropical storm because all it takes is one strong pocket of storms within a band and your house can get walloped, lose power, a tree can fall on your car or your street could get flooded. 2005 Hurricane Season taught Miami about underestimating tropical storms.

But... we do love them. They provide all of the excitement and wind and rain and beautiful surf without the terror of a huge Cat 5 storm out there terrifying the hell out of us.

So... going to check the loops and read some boards and hope my power doesn't go out but in this house we lose power at the first big gust so if I am not here I am begging my son to please post for me something I will send him.. if there is something to post about.

Fun... I'm sorry, it is fun today. Will it be fun tomorrow if I have no electric and trees are down and some window is broken? No... but.. you got to live in today, live in the moment, hope for the best and prepare for the worst and you got to go to the beach and feel the wind in your face when there is a storm out there.

If you read the preface of The Perfect Storm you will see that the tree trimmer from New Hampshire got the idea for writing that book when he was at the beach during a hurricane.. Bob maybe or another one... it is where the muse calls us, writers and poets following their muse like surfers looking and searching for that one good wave.

Storms out on the Gulf Stream, big storm coming soon... :)

later.. Bobbi
and btw.. I think they should upgrade Ernesto to at least 50 if not 55mph. Just my opinon. You can see very developed bands moving in..

Monday, August 28, 2006

Miami, Monday Evening.. From The Cone Zone

Miami at Sundown... Sundown in the Cone Zone.. 85 degrees at 8pm!

Traffic has become something worse to deal with than the storm itself. I have spoken to people who would rather stay home without extra water or batteries than venture outside looking for a few more double AAs.. anything other than going out into the Traffic. Maybe when the sun goes down, maybe later... much later they will go over to Walmart or get gas but not now...

At Biscayne Blvd and 163rd Street it took about 20 minutes to get across two lights. There were people lined up at gas stations blocking traffic lanes. I heard it took 30 minutes to cross Miami Gardens and Biscayne but not sure .. maybe it just seemed like 30 minutes. Sunny Isles Blvd going east bound at rush hour looked like a parking lot.

It was 91 degrees at 6pm. Hottest that I can remember, hot and dry and people around me looked like they might pass out. The air felt funny, two women on the bus getting ready to get off were holding their necks and their eyes looked funny.

On one hand people have this "I'm prepared, I'll be okay, I'll deal with it after the storm" attitude and on the other hand every kook is out there fighting for something their wife, husband, parent or friend INSISTED they go BACK to the store for... Like the laid back vs the crazed shoppers.

Everyone is pretty much waiting.

I did see a few people putting up shutters. Why? Not sure, maybe they have to work tomorrow and have to do it tonight. Norcross said that this storm has a built in good timing quality as you can go to sleep, set your alarm for 6am and watch the news and get an idea for how bad, strong Ernesto looks or doesn't and make that decision on the shutters or going to stay with a friend. So, so true.

And, in my opinion... I think that Ernesto IS reforming and looking quite good. Earlier this afternoon it was two weak masses or color on the IR... now both those areas have expanded and merged and there is obvious DARK colors growing on the north coast where the center of the storm is at this minute. Also, if you look at the bottom there is what will be a nice long tail and I believe it's gonna have a nice band on top.. on the north.. Somehow that small upper level low is helping it not hurting it and helping twist up the environment a bit...

Something is going on with Ernesto... he is doing his thing and I think that the NHC was right yesterday but they didn't stick to their guns because their new fancy models show now it won't rev up. I think it will be a Cat 1 at landfall easily..even leave in possibility that it looks better or is just barely Cat 1.. 70 mph.. but.. those who want to "stick a fork in it" or make fun of it.. well... easy to do when you didn't go through a very strong borderline Category 1/Tropical Storm last year. For those who went through Katrina in the Miami area.. no one is laughing this off. And, yet...I don't see panic.

I have been told there is more panic in suburbia.. where you have 3 or 4 gas stations at your entrance to the expressway and there are a million people trying to get gas.. one or two Publix stores and one Walmart..everyone is wedged in like sardines. On Miami Beach people were going in and out of small stores.. small Dollar Stores on Washington Avenue were doing a brisk business in Cuban Coffee and 7 day religious candles and people were talking, shmoozing, discussing calmly. I'm beginning to think Suburbia turns people into labratory rats not the big city.

Tourist making plans to go home. People off work tomorrow. Kids home from school for two days. Alternative, Plan B plans being made.. if it's bad, if it's noy a bad storm.. if there is damage, if there isn't damage.

As I have said before.. our football team is called the University of Miami Hurricanes for a reason. This is hurricane country and we don't panic and go "Oh MY GOSH" as much as .. "okay, batteries, drinks, clean up, snacks, get money out of the bank, first aid, etc.."

And, the kids.......oh the kids are having fun. This is prime time fun time for Miami kids... we don't have snow, we don't have fall... we have hurricanes! And, usually they are milder than we think they will be but there is always that outside chance that this one will rev up, turn strong, become a major cane from some, small ragged looking remnant of a storm named Ernesto.

As for me... sitting back, relaxing tonight, watching the show on TV.. talking to friends, maybe take a walk over to the Walgreens a few blocks away and look around.. and in the morning.. at some point. Taking Zalmy to the beach.. maybe Rivky.. witnesses history and seeing if I can discern something at the beach that I can't see on TV.

One thing I will tell you.

This morning there was no air.. no wind, nothing.
Tonight, outside.. there is a constant breeze, nonstop.. trust me there is something coming.. what I can't say for sure but don't write it off. Nope. He's a player.

Right now.. Ernesto is sitting there in the Old Bahama Passage.. just offshore, near the coast... and over the next six or nine hours we will see what he really plans on doing.

Lastly... Max Mayfield said on local tv that some new test models show that Ernesto will not become strong over the Straits despite warm waters below and he doesn't really see why he won't reintensify nicely. So.. it's the new fancy models against old time wisdom and I have to tell you I think I trust Old Max on this one.


Mixed message according to Bryan Norcross.. what looked like two centers... what looks like a band on botton that are trying to develop. Another player is the upper level low to it's immediate ne... and that is enhancing tstorms and it is hurting him temporarily ... but that uper level low is going away.. and then what??? Then what? That is the question Bryan is asking tonight. He is so good, really good, so good. It cannot be overused how good he is.. Watching him now talking calmly about the storm.. that isn't all so far away really.

So.. bottom line.. I see him riding the Old Bahama Passage a bit up and then turning a bit more sharply than the path shows as the front begins to move faster this way and he might even come in from the south.

Norcross did say that depending on if he does intensify or not there could be some significant flooding in Biscayne Bay up to the Port of Miami. Water would funnel up into Biscayne Bay.. to some degree.

Check in later to see what degree.. as for me.. I see him trying to make nice bands.. on sw edge, on the south.. on the north.. he is growing in size and I think he is going to be a beautiful storm to look at when all is said and done and he gets out over the Gulf Stream... very close in. Don't be surprised if he looks more like a hurricane tomorrow.

Oh.. got chicken in the oven with mango-key lime sauce I bought in the Keys a month or so ago and sweet potatoes and going to have dinner, relax, watch the nonstop Ernesto show on TV and see what he looks like in the morning.

Waiting on the 11pm.. waiting on the 5pm... living and dying in 6 hour time..

Going to put on some Jimmy Buffett later ;)

And...thanks for all your nice comments from people reading my blog... yes, so true, only time will tell..

MIDDLE OF THE DAY.. MIAMI WAITS FOR ERNESTO TO MOVE

To show his face, his cords, his rank.. come on Ernesto.. get off of Cuba and let us see what you really got..

People on message boards don't believe the NHC track for 3 days out but they are watching a storm yet unformed named Florence that will make Ernesto look like a dry run..

How do we believe 15 days out based on models but not 3 day?

Does the NHC have this storm in the bag or not?

Is he reforming on the north coast about to hit water or spin or is he stuck over Cuba?

As for me... I said he will end up in the Old Bahama Channel just north of Cuba.. parrallel maybe a bit but ..
if you look at the water vapor loop the storm is about to be lifted north from gently underneath..and have read few
people talk on that. There is a big system sliding down fast now.. it will get the storm.

The only question remains.. where where how what and we actually know the who question

where? track
when? timing
what? intensity
Who? Ernesto.. coming to Miami soon.. and everyone here is hanging out and talking like its a garden party
and why not?

Hell ...we have dealt with warnings and watches nonstop now for 2 years.. over and over.. and over..

So.. yeah we are watching, we are taking off tomorrow.. but until Ernesto gets off of Cuba and shows us what he's got..
we are taking a sort of calm approach.

Unless you are in a gas line .. heard they were getting long out in the burbs..

No flight recon over Cuba so it's everyone's guessing game.. or just believe in the NHC.. and wait for Ernesto to come on in..

later.. Bobbi
amazed at the stupidity and nonsense I have seen all day from so many people who laugh it off or rely on graphics from the NHC as if they are road maps from AAA.. Tropics don't work that way.. hurricanes sometimes run on island time..

Miami, Monday Morning Before Ernesto Arrives

This really should be called.. Living and Dying in 6 hour time.. but I'll explain that later :) And, excuse the spelling errors as I am a little nervous and very rushed.

Hello from Miami.. Home of the Middle of the Cone..or soon to be middle of the Cone..

I'm trying to think clearly, logically and tell myself this storm is still a long ways away and things can change fast in the tropics. 2 days ago it was headed to Texas. Maybe we can send Ernesto Travel Posters of Bermuda?
Don't think so.. was a done deal that this storm was going to head to Cuba and then laugh in my face in Miami. Telling you I could have bet the farm on this one.. or the red, red roses blowing in the breeze from my good friend and handsome guy Ernesto. The real Ernesto has always been entertaining and pushed me to be cuter, funnier and made my day brighter. This one is getting the adrenaline rush going and I have black coffee this morning since I was up til 3 and woke up from my slumber at 6. That's 3 hours sleep.

Going to my favorite Starbucks in 10 minutes and getting a RedEye. Welcome to my world...

So, you wondering how I am doing here in Miami?

I am living and dying in 6 hour time (sung to Jimmy Buffett's 3/4 time song please) as we wait with baited breath to see if the National Hurricane Center can manage to get that cone DIRECTLY over Miami ... come on guys.. I know you can do it...

So.. every time someone calls me or texts me or emails me or flies a banner plane over my house I tell them.. "I'll let you know more after the 11am, the 5pm, the 11pm, the 5 am... telling y'all we are living and dying in 6 hour time. The Discussion from the NHC.. the only real discussion that counts. And..then we will spend the rest of tonight and possibly tomorrow waiting to hear what Bryan has to say. And, Bryan did not look like a happy camper yesterday. How could he? The NHC kept issuing forecast points for Ernesto to hit and Ernesto kept missing them. May he KEEP missing them to the RIGHT.. far right Ernesto baby.. please... just miss us by a little.. a miss is as good as a mile they say or a smile.. so come on Ernesto... miss us just a little.

Right now.. I'm a bit worried he doesn't stall somewhere down there with the high above him and upper level lows battling it out but... the NHC calls for him to move his pretty little body NW at NEAR 12 mph (which I don't personally see but who knows) so.. don't listen to me but remember I said he might stall or slow down. Probably will take off like a bat out of hell now that I said it.

Why do I say Miami is in deep water trouble and should better listen up and stop thinking "it can't happen again, it can't" is shown below with dueling water vapor loops.. Run them, loop them and see if you can find a way out of tropical trouble for Miami. Please.. let me know if you see anything to wish upon besides stars in the clear night sky a night ahead in the calm before the storm...

First before you read this.. or maybe later as I am not the bossy kind.. please check out the links for the loops.

See this water vapor loop?
http://www.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/opdb/aviation/loops/realtime/atlwv_loope.html
Note that for the few moments it was over water it went DARK RED immediately before moving towards the tip of Eastern Cuba.

That is not a good sign.

Storm history would say that when this storm hits the warm waters north of Cuba it will do that again except that the only land in it's way will be a day or two away in South Florida.

Note the Upper Level Low to it's north is going towards Florida and it will follow it as well as let the Ull ventilate it better and enhance it .. making it stronger. Many have said that feature would kill it but no.. what doesn't kill us only makes us stronger.. to paraphrase Sting.

Air circulates around and it is going to be shoved straight at Florida.. just like the SHORT term forecast by the NHC says. I would love to believe otherwise. Then again... I really want to believe in Happy Endings and sappy love songs so someone feel free to rewrite this ending to Ernesto's so called life so far.. please..

Next Water Vapor Loop:
http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/data/east/animation/goeseastwv.html

Just so many to choose from... note how Ernesto though not much stronger wind speed wise is already expanding in size as most of it is over water.. not good.

Yet another water vapor loop... the old Whales ummm well .. Shuky and Levi's favorite one (my sons) and note that this also doesn't look good. I don't see any way out here and I really "feel" for the NHC who insisted he was going to go WNW .. there is still time I may add though I don't see why he would.

Thats 3 not goods.. someone keeping track here?

I'm sitting in Kafka's Internet Cafe and Bookstore on Miami Beach..watching people in shorts walking by the window walking their little pooches for a morning walk... and wondering where they are going walk them on wednesday? The painted van from Lucky Tattos is across the street and that lady painted on the side of the truck looks positively evil. Can we please have her put a spell on Ernesto?? Tourists are peering out from the rooftop of the hotel nearby with a cup of coffee in hand and happy to be in paradise one last day before heading off to Germany or Italy or whatever European Country they are here from spending their wisely earned Euros.. Gosh Miami Beach looks beautiful today. Bright, beautiful and deceptively pretty. A lady walks by calmly talking on her cell phone. No panic here. Not yet... maybe tomorrow. Maybe tonight. One last night of partying maybe on Hispanola Way before boarding up the shops of Lincoln Road I imagine.

I do notice Kafka's has filled up and no one is talking, it's extremely quiet and almost everyone is going back and forth from mail to weather news.


I wonder... does anyone realize here what trouble we might be in store for?

Do I? Am I really prepared for this thing to ramp up into a big, bad storm?
No :) Nope.. not really but I will go into full panic mode and know what to do and do it on automatic should that happen.
Trust me... My brother's house has shutters and a new roof (which I hope holds) and I will go there with the kiddies and the kitty if I have to.. if it's a major and not a minor.

I want to tell myself that he is small, he is weak..a minor little nothing Tropical Storm. Lords knows they flew around yesterday in 8 figure 8s looking for a tropical storm force wind. Who is up in that plane I wonder? Been a bit quiet round here the last 24 hours.

And, then I remember the discussion on ZERO vertical shear as Ernesto moves towards the Southeast Florida area for a landfall later this week.. sooner this week and I think.. "no shear?" oh that can't be right. Can it?

Then I look at skeetobite.. someone should slap him silly for scaring us with those graphics..
http://www.skeetobiteweather.com/picservice.asp?t=m&m=05

Oh.... no help there.

From Discussion at 5am..
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT5+shtml/280901.shtml

"THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 325/10. THE RECON FIXES HAVE BEEN
JUMPING AROUND AS NEW CONVECTIVE BURSTS DEVELOP AND THE CENTER HAS
MOVED NORTHWARD. HOWEVER...RADAR DATA FROM CUBA ALSO INDICATES THAT
THE CONVECTION HAS BECOME MORE CONSOLIDATED...SO A MORE GENERAL
NORTHWESTWARD MOTION SHOULD BECOME ESTABLISHED SHORTLY."

That Discussion is the killer here as it's only a *SHOULD*... but for now Ernesto has missed his forecasted point and he is a bit right of where he should have been and that means.. unless they can hold off.. the NHC may pull, tug the cone a bit more to the right..

Waiting on the ELEVEN AM Ernesto Advisory and Discussion...

As I said.. I am living and dying in 6 hour time..

Thank the gang at HurrCity for keeping me laughing while waiting for the 2am... see you later alligators..

Bobbi.. going to get a Redeye and go to work and I'll let you know the moment I see someone, somewhere actually boaring up..
for now.. blue skies, beautiful weather in Miami this morning...

Sunday, August 27, 2006

RANDOM MUSINGS OF BOBBI'S TROPICAL MIND...

Random Musings Of A Tropical Mind - Bobbi In Miami

While I sit here waiting to see if Ernesto reforms...if he gets strong... if we have watches posted at 5am...

While I listen to Matt Drudge muse on the radio..

While I talk to friends and call it a night..

Main point of 11pm Discussion:
"THERE COULD BE SOME SHIFTS WHEN THE 00Z MODELS COME OUT...AS THEY
WILL HAVE THE BENEFIT OF DROPSONDE DATA FROM THE NOAA G-IV JET AND
AN AIR FORCE C-130. A QUICK LOOK AT SOME OF THE 500 MB DATA SHOWS
SOMEWHAT HIGHER HEIGHTS IN THE BAHAMAS THAN FORECAST BY THE
GFS...SO I WOULDN'T BE TOO SURPRISED TO SEE THE 00Z MODELS SHIFT A
LITTLE TO THE LEFT."

Second main point... remember that Clark on www.flhurricane.com wrote that incredible post on his blog.. check it out tomorrow and see what else he has to say...

Thirdly...I'm musing a bit... tropically so and then I am going to bed as soon as I am done here.

I found a way to solve the problem of the house phone ringing. I am on the laptop on the house phone line :) Peace and quiet... no more phone calls except on the cellphone or the sidekick.

Everyone wants to know "Do I have to worry?" "Is Ernesto going to hit?"

This is an odd question as if you have to ask it.. you obviously are already worrying. And..we are in the Cone...if there is an Ernesto tomorrow it will probably hit somewhere between Miami and Key West and Tampa and well...somewhere near here.

Should you worry? Should I worry?
Oh well... depends. It is all a matter of perspective.

As Wayne Dwyer said last night on some program.. if someone finds a a few hairs in their soup ...someone else can say its only a few hairs but if they are in your soup... its way too much hair. Well, he said something like that. A lot was going on at the time but that caught my attention.

So...if you have a weak little storm down in the Caribbean headed in the general direction of NW and the cone says it will probably hit Cuba and the Keys..why would Miami worry? Because its south of Miami headed this way and so far has always stayed on the right side of the track. It might be a minimal storm.. but its possibly our minimal storm. A minimal storm can get big fast.

I mean if you want to buy the story of the 1935 Labor Day Cane going from a tropical storm to a Major Cat 5 in about one day... why would anyone laugh at a minimal tropical storm about to cross hot, hot, hot Victoria Secret water? Hello? And, yes forever and always Chris I will be skeptical of the 1935 Labor Day Cane and you know why but am not going to get political here. No..the Govt was not responsible for killing the Vets on the Keys..those Vets that marched on Washington and were sent down to the Keys in the middle of summer when sandflies try to fly north for cooler air... to sit in a tropical Siberia in the middle of nowhere and didn't bother to make sure that the rescue train got there in time to stop them from washing away into the Atlantic Ocean by a Category Five "Act of God" storm ... Well... Ernest Hemingway believed that basically the US Government was responsible in some way for their deaths. He was on one of the first trips up the Keys to see what happened. There Ernest was... on the Pilar, Mr. Reporter on a story and he found dead body upon dead body all the way along the Highway... dead bodies in trees hanging bloated and ugly with flies flying around their naked bodies, he found remnants of camps set up for the Veterans that Washington forgot left to die and have their remains scattered about left in the sand. The very same Vets that marched on Washington and upset the President who decided if they wanted work so bad..he would darn well find them work. And...so even though they were supposed to have a good back up plan in case of tropical weather.. oopsie they didn't have such a good plan. Those who were on vacation in Miami survived and most who stayed behind on a coral rock set of Keys .. islands barely above sea level died.. or were washed away in the Train that left Miami late...too late to save them. Something about a bridge being stuck up and the train being a half an hour too late...

Whoosh came the wave that knocked the choo choo train into the Ocean.

But years before Ralph Munroe, a writer and ecologist at the turn of the Century warned against laying the tracks for the Overseas Railroad in the manner he did... as he said it would cause a suction like effect and create a tidal wave like effect if a storm approached from the direction the 35 Storm approached...not a storm surge but more a tidal wave and according to the survivor's own words a wave came larger than any other and suddenly swept the train off of the tracks... one big wave.

Maybe it was storm surge..
Maybe it was poor planning...

Maybe they meant to save the vets..
Maybe they cared...

Maybe the 35 Storm really did intensify that fast.. maybe it didn't.

There is very little real data and can you really tell the difference between a Cat 4 and a Cat 5?

The disaster in New Orleans after Katrina was a breakdown of the Levee system... maybe if it had happened way back before every Tom, Dick and Harry was tracking online it would have been called a landfall of a Category Five storm and who could argue the point?

Now everyone can argue... then???

Well... you know that passage by heart, you who knows the history so well of how a wall of water rolled over the Vets..

Ernest Hemingway didn't buy it. He believed that Washington was responsible for their deaths even if in directly.

Washington put out a big, massive book I have looked through on the hearings and judged it a Category Five and even though problems occured in the rescue ..there really wasn't much they could do in an Act of God and... as always.. Congress held hearings..

Fast forward to 2006 and Ernesto.. a name very beloved in the tropics and in Cuba... is down there hovering around the tip of Haiti.. barely a storm, but there.... over very warm water...

LOL.... Drudge playing music... once I build a railroad, now its done..brother can you spare a dime. God I love that creep...

oh help me...

So... guys, giggling.............. where was I?

No longer can Washington or Miami do anything without someone, somewhere looking over their shoulder ...

Accountability is everywhere and Accuweather is still trying like a shark to get into the act... and The Weather Channel is there watching the tropics... the Hurricane Authority...

But can anyone tell me... can anyone spare a dime or a forecast...

Can anyone tell us where Ernesto is really going?

I don't think he's a goner. I don't think he is going to spend much time on Cuba. I don't know for sure but I don't think so.

But, telling you one thing here my friend.. my friends...

This is the anniversary year of the 1926 Great Miami Hurricane and any year ending in a 6 makes me nervous. Laugh..but Yaffah would know what I mean... Somewhere the parrallels are big for Miami and I worry that Miami may feel a real storm... not just a garden variety 1 or 2..

As for the Keys... God I love the Keys and I love Key West and I can't say for sure if this is a Miami storm or a Key West storm.

I know one thing..

Bob Weaver who was the Weatherman Miami grew up listening to on the Old Wometco Channel.. Channel 4.. Wometco and Key West always a connection... Bob Weaver...would tell you all this... wait and see what happens after Ernesto comes off of Cuba and don't think this storm can't rev up and intensify over very warm waters of the Gulf Stream but relax a bit..there is plenty of time to worry still tomorrow. Get some rest and see where Ernesto is tomorrow and pay close attention to it.

Bob Weaver was the best in his day in Miami. He died this year...

A Miami original.

Morry tried to convince me once he told bawdy jokes at the old Lennys Hideaway by the Airport .. jazz bar the weathermen all hung out at (and so did we) but... well...good for Ole Bob cause he had that edge, that mishevous edge and yet... he had the sentimental edge and he had a great smile and we miss him in Miami.

So....................if Shuky reads this in Israel, YES I KNOW... Miami will be in the NE quadrant .. maybe.

First lets go to bed...and wake up tomorrow and see what condition my condition is in..

As for Ernesto... I respect him ... and if he wants to come in as a more gentle storm.. good.

Because the GFS model has some SUPERSTORM out there on the 14th day frame that is going to EAT Florida WHOLE and SWALLOW it on it's way north and the day 16th frame has another Ernesto sort of system coming up from the Caribbean following the Supercane.

Don't worry.. its not something to rely on.. it's Day 15 and Day 16..and we don't ever go by a forecast more than FIVE DAYS OUT.

SNONUT... I love you! Forever and always... wishing you Cape Verde Canes and Snow Days...always! You are the best! You are Mr. Wonderful! Really!!!!! 105% ;)

:)

Bobbi...over and out and for Mr. Drudge.. play the windmills of my mind. Come on Matt...play Windmills of Your Mind.. rhymes with Dime, pretty please.

Ernesto... thank you for the beautiful roses... or whoever sent them ;)
http://weather.unisys.com/satellite/sat_wv_east_loop-12.html

RANDOM MUSINGS OF BOBBI'S TROPICAL MIND...

Random Musings Of A Tropical Mind - Bobbi In Miami

While I sit here waiting to see if Ernesto reforms...if he gets strong... if we have watches posted at 5am...

While I listen to Matt Drudge muse on the radio..

While I talk to friends and call it a night..

Main point of 11pm Discussion:
"THERE COULD BE SOME SHIFTS WHEN THE 00Z MODELS COME OUT...AS THEY
WILL HAVE THE BENEFIT OF DROPSONDE DATA FROM THE NOAA G-IV JET AND
AN AIR FORCE C-130. A QUICK LOOK AT SOME OF THE 500 MB DATA SHOWS
SOMEWHAT HIGHER HEIGHTS IN THE BAHAMAS THAN FORECAST BY THE
GFS...SO I WOULDN'T BE TOO SURPRISED TO SEE THE 00Z MODELS SHIFT A
LITTLE TO THE LEFT."

Second main point... remember that Clark on www.flhurricane.com wrote that incredible post on his blog.. check it out tomorrow and see what else he has to say...

Thirdly...I'm musing a bit... tropically so and then I am going to bed as soon as I am done here.

I found a way to solve the problem of the house phone ringing. I am on the laptop on the house phone line :) Peace and quiet... no more phone calls except on the cellphone or the sidekick.

Everyone wants to know "Do I have to worry?" "Is Ernesto going to hit?"

This is an odd question as if you have to ask it.. you obviously are already worrying. And..we are in the Cone...if there is an Ernesto tomorrow it will probably hit somewhere between Miami and Key West and Tampa and well...somewhere near here.

Should you worry? Should I worry?
Oh well... depends. It is all a matter of perspective.

As Wayne Dwyer said last night on some program.. if someone finds a a few hairs in their soup ...someone else can say its only a few hairs but if they are in your soup... its way too much hair. Well, he said something like that. A lot was going on at the time but that caught my attention.

So...if you have a weak little storm down in the Caribbean headed in the general direction of NW and the cone says it will probably hit Cuba and the Keys..why would Miami worry? Because its south of Miami headed this way and so far has always stayed on the right side of the track. It might be a minimal storm.. but its possibly our minimal storm. A minimal storm can get big fast.

I mean if you want to buy the story of the 1935 Labor Day Cane going from a tropical storm to a Major Cat 5 in about one day... why would anyone laugh at a minimal tropical storm about to cross hot, hot, hot Victoria Secret water? Hello? And, yes forever and always Chris I will be skeptical of the 1935 Labor Day Cane and you know why but am not going to get political here. No..the Govt was not responsible for killing the Vets on the Keys..those Vets that marched on Washington and were sent down to the Keys in the middle of summer when sandflies try to fly north for cooler air... to sit in a tropical Siberia in the middle of nowhere and didn't bother to make sure that the rescue train got there in time to stop them from washing away into the Atlantic Ocean by a Category Five "Act of God" storm ... Well... Ernest Hemingway believed that basically the US Government was responsible in some way for their deaths. He was on one of the first trips up the Keys to see what happened. There Ernest was... on the Pilar, Mr. Reporter on a story and he found dead body upon dead body all the way along the Highway... dead bodies in trees hanging bloated and ugly with flies flying around their naked bodies, he found remnants of camps set up for the Veterans that Washington forgot left to die and have their remains scattered about left in the sand. The very same Vets that marched on Washington and upset the President who decided if they wanted work so bad..he would darn well find them work. And...so even though they were supposed to have a good back up plan in case of tropical weather.. oopsie they didn't have such a good plan. Those who were on vacation in Miami survived and most who stayed behind on a coral rock set of Keys .. islands barely above sea level died.. or were washed away in the Train that left Miami late...too late to save them. Something about a bridge being stuck up and the train being a half an hour too late...

Whoosh came the wave that knocked the choo choo train into the Ocean.

But years before Ralph Munroe, a writer and ecologist at the turn of the Century warned against laying the tracks for the Overseas Railroad in the manner he did... as he said it would cause a suction like effect and create a tidal wave like effect if a storm approached from the direction the 35 Storm approached...not a storm surge but more a tidal wave and according to the survivor's own words a wave came larger than any other and suddenly swept the train off of the tracks... one big wave.

Maybe it was storm surge..
Maybe it was poor planning...

Maybe they meant to save the vets..
Maybe they cared...

Maybe the 35 Storm really did intensify that fast.. maybe it didn't.

There is very little real data and can you really tell the difference between a Cat 4 and a Cat 5?

The disaster in New Orleans after Katrina was a breakdown of the Levee system... maybe if it had happened way back before every Tom, Dick and Harry was tracking online it would have been called a landfall of a Category Five storm and who could argue the point?

Now everyone can argue... then???

Well... you know that passage by heart, you who knows the history so well of how a wall of water rolled over the Vets..

Ernest Hemingway didn't buy it. He believed that Washington was responsible for their deaths even if in directly.

Washington put out a big, massive book I have looked through on the hearings and judged it a Category Five and even though problems occured in the rescue ..there really wasn't much they could do in an Act of God and... as always.. Congress held hearings..

Fast forward to 2006 and Ernesto.. a name very beloved in the tropics and in Cuba... is down there hovering around the tip of Haiti.. barely a storm, but there.... over very warm water...

LOL.... Drudge playing music... once I build a railroad, now its done..brother can you spare a dime. God I love that creep...

oh help me...

So... guys, giggling.............. where was I?

No longer can Washington or Miami do anything without someone, somewhere looking over their shoulder ...

Accountability is everywhere and Accuweather is still trying like a shark to get into the act... and The Weather Channel is there watching the tropics... the Hurricane Authority...

But can anyone tell me... can anyone spare a dime or a forecast...

Can anyone tell us where Ernesto is really going?

I don't think he's a goner. I don't think he is going to spend much time on Cuba. I don't know for sure but I don't think so.

But, telling you one thing here my friend.. my friends...

This is the anniversary year of the 1926 Great Miami Hurricane and any year ending in a 6 makes me nervous. Laugh..but Yaffah would know what I mean... Somewhere the parrallels are big for Miami and I worry that Miami may feel a real storm... not just a garden variety 1 or 2..

As for the Keys... God I love the Keys and I love Key West and I can't say for sure if this is a Miami storm or a Key West storm.

I know one thing..

Bob Weaver who was the Weatherman Miami grew up listening to on the Old Wometco Channel.. Channel 4.. Wometco and Key West always a connection... Bob Weaver...would tell you all this... wait and see what happens after Ernesto comes off of Cuba and don't think this storm can't rev up and intensify over very warm waters of the Gulf Stream but relax a bit..there is plenty of time to worry still tomorrow. Get some rest and see where Ernesto is tomorrow and pay close attention to it.

Bob Weaver was the best in his day in Miami. He died this year...

A Miami original.

Morry tried to convince me once he told bawdy jokes at the old Lennys Hideaway by the Airport .. jazz bar the weathermen all hung out at (and so did we) but... well...good for Ole Bob cause he had that edge, that mishevous edge and yet... he had the sentimental edge and he had a great smile and we miss him in Miami.

So....................if Shuky reads this in Israel, YES I KNOW... Miami will be in the NE quadrant .. maybe.

First lets go to bed...and wake up tomorrow and see what condition my condition is in..

As for Ernesto... I respect him ... and if he wants to come in as a more gentle storm.. good.

Because the GFS model has some SUPERSTORM out there on the 14th day frame that is going to EAT Florida WHOLE and SWALLOW it on it's way north and the day 16th frame has another Ernesto sort of system coming up from the Caribbean following the Supercane.

Don't worry.. its not something to rely on.. it's Day 15 and Day 16..and we don't ever go by a forecast more than FIVE DAYS OUT.

SNONUT... I love you! Forever and always... wishing you Cape Verde Canes and Snow Days...always! You are the best! You are Mr. Wonderful! Really!!!!! 105% ;)

:)

Bobbi...over and out and for Mr. Drudge.. read the windmills of my mind. Come on Matt...play Windmills of Your Mind.. rhymes with Dime, pretty please.

Ernesto... thank you for the beautiful roses... or whoever sent them ;)
http://weather.unisys.com/satellite/sat_wv_east_loop-12.html

Tracking Ernesto? Which Way Are You Going Ernesto Dear?

Tracking Ernesto..

Which way are you going and where are you going Ernesto Dear?

Everyone wants to know...

Tracking Ernesto is not an easy job and everyone is a back-seat driver it seems.

I pity the NHC right now as everyone wants info and they want it NOW!!

Take one Sunday Free and a Hurricane near Haiti and a group of weather enthusiasts or NUTS and you see people all over the Internet going whacky and bickering over direction, intensity and track.. models, speed, direction and which upper level low is really driving Ernesto.

I know I lost my temper and I rarely do that at HurrCity but everyone wants to second guess the NHC.. and I know I often have been guilty of that one but you have to go with the date that brought you (or usually anyway) and in this case... the NHC is the main player.. the star... the one that has to answer to accountability and not go offline for a few days and come back on with a new name (which some people do on the boards).

Add to that I had to take my son to a Bar Mitzvah Party from Noon to Four and there was an hour commute both ways I was stuck away from my drug of choice... my source for news... loops, laughter and best friends online on Instant Message.

What's a Mommy to do?

I dropped him off, wished them a Mazel Tov and went over to a nice little Portuguese-Italian Restaurant that had great music and even better Cappuccino made STRONG like I asked the sweet Argentinean and sat there looking at info on my sidekick.

Then... I went over to the Ocean...sat and watched the waves come in gently and grab at my toes a little as I sat half dressed just at the water's edge... on the shoreline, between water and land, between land and sea and watched the sea gulls and kids playing and... oh my gosh the colors were so bright, deep azure, turquoise, white waves, blue sky, colorful bathing suits and beach toys.. Hard to believe in 2 days time the ocean might look wild and wicked. Talked to Sharon on the Phone. Text messaged Shuky in Israel who is "following the storm" and ... got a little bit of a sunburn :) but not a lot... a little color and I can still hear the whoosh of waves in my head. Picked up a seashell for Ed and might even send it to him .. if he is accepting gifts these days.

Then, walked back over to the party, sat on a chair somewhere in the corner and talked to Shuky online about loops and sites and currents and historical storms and climo and boy does that son of mine love weather and he is so good. And, YES Shuky..if Ernesto does the Keys.. Miami will be in the NE Quadrant.. I heard you. You said it a million times.

My own thoughts? I don't like the water vapor loop. The high is being erased by moisture from the top of Ernesto. The tricky to predict upper level lows are rearranging again... and something looks like it wants to pull it up and over... The high may build in but it won't build in fast enough to save us and some model somewhere (the bam i think shows a looping storm) and... it doesn't look good. Can't put my finger on it but I think something bad is going to happen tropically speaking. And, hoping that is only a tropical storm or mild cat 1. Too many things going on here and we will see what we will see. Need a hero... an expert.

Worried that the high to its north..the very weak high is weakening. Everything is in a state of FLUX and remember that movie about Time whatever.. back to the future.. well.. could use someone like him right now.. a crazy professor type who .. OH OH I got it! We could use Dr. Gray.

One wonders what Dr. Gray would be like at forecasting and I am almost jealous of his students who got to see him in class. He is funny, he is good and he is better off camera than on (from first hand experience.. just don't step on his toes lol)

You look and you tell me what is going on:
http://weather.unisys.com/satellite/sat_wv_east_loop-12.html


Jim is doing a good job on HurrCity. Please look at the player on the front page and watch him do his broadcast. This morning he gave a "what if" scenario for what actually happened today and might happen tomorrow.

Clark on www.flhurricane.com is about as good as it gets at giving over prose.. Explaining in a calm, good manner and not talking down to people.. explaining to them in perfect discussion of what might or might not be happening. There are many over there that are very good, very, very good but everyone has their shtick, their attitude.. Clark tells it like it is and I hope he isn't upset that I am posting this here.. at the end of my post is a post from Clark at www.flhurricane.com .. go there, read yourself the blogs and the board.

And... as for www.hurricanecity.com... use some of the good links Jim has posted there but as always .. anywhere... on any site.. remember there is ONLY ONE BOTTOM LINE.. and that is the NHC... National Hurricane Center.

They are the ones who make the call.

Speaking of calls... Monroe County does not lightly issue evacuation warnings and they lose a fortune in revenue asking the tourists not to stay over another night and check out at 1pm and leave. They do so only to protect your life and limb if you are lucky enough to be partying to wickedly, delicious fruity, spiked drinks and watching the sunset.

Don't just say "oh its only the models" because the models are what separates us from the days of a Killer Cane coming at us out of nowhere.. models and satellite loops.. words and music... you can't have one without the other and if you want to go back to the days of the Seminoles who watched the Seminole Wind and watched to see the Sawgrass bend in the breeze before picking up and looking for higher ground... please... you go back in time..

I will stay here in the year 2006 where we are lucky to have the Models and the Loops... a people like Clark on flhurricane and Gianmarc and Chris and Canetrakker and Tim and LawKat and others on www.hurricanecity.com and even skeetobite to swat at lol...

Seriously, most of all we are lucky to have Bryan Norcross and............Beven and Stewart at the National Hurricane Center writing the best discussions I have seen in years.. positively inspired.

Pick your poison, pick your media... pick your favorite voice in the tropics... but watch Ernesto because despite parking his rear end over the entire island of Hispanola and dropping his winds a bit... his outflow has improved and he is looking pretty darn good for someone .. something that just took on mountain ranges of 5,000 ft and ABOVE... Ernesto is a fighter, he's the real thing.. if he was in the 50s he would make Hemingway proud.. he'd be a bullfighter... and the reds that sit on his CDO.. center are strong and clear.. so keep your eye on him and pray he stays over more high mountains and not over the warm, warm, warm waters of the Gulfstream.

This is One Big Florida Storm.. waiting to happen... hoping it won't and he will turn safely out to sea with nothing else but sending me a beautiful breeze at the beach on Monday but...... I wouldn't bet the chickee hut on it..

Be back later if I have time... after the 11pm Discussion.
Bobbi
Clark's post below.. excellent post I may add.
PS...what we don't need is another Miss Cleo.. tropically speaking :)

So...
Ernesto: What's Going On?
Posted: 12:41 PM 27 August 2006 | Edit
Early this afternoon, Hurricane Ernesto sits just southwest of the southwestern Haitian coastline, slowly moving off to the west-northwest. It continues to gradually become better organized as the shear being imparted upon it by the upper low to its west has greatly diminished over the past 24 hours, but interactions with land are serving to keep intensity in check for the time being. The big question with Ernesto isn't the current track, however, but the future track -- both short and long term.

Overnight, much of the model guidance shifted significantly to the right, highlighting the Florida Peninsula as being under the gun for an eventual impact from Ernesto. Breaking with standard operating practices, the NHC jumped on this change and wholeheartedly shifted their forecast track as of the 5a ET advisory this morning. Then, the GFS and GFDL shifted back to the west, highlighting the Florida panhandle, but now the GFS at 12z today has shifted even further to the east, suggesting a track over Miami and up the length of the peninsula. Other models continue to jump back and forth as well. Needless to say, without some sort of continuity, it's hard to pinpoint any one area as under the gun from Ernesto into next week, but current indications suggest it will be somewhere in Florida.

What is causing this uncertainty and all of these jumps? It's not from a better representation of the storm; all of the models except the GFDL maintain a very weak storm as they have throughout Ernesto's lifecycle. It stems from uncertainty in what the upper level feature currently over the intermountain west is going to do over the next few days. It also stems from uncertainty in the short-term track of Ernesto. Let's start with this latter point.

Initial projections for Ernesto had the subtropical ridge over Florida and the western Atlantic building in to the north of storm, allowing it to move on a more westerly path across the Caribbean. Problem is, Ernesto isn't south of it yet. An upper low located to its north, a feature that has been there through its history, has not weakened or moved out of the region to the east as had been forecast. This is keeping a bit of a weakness in the ridge and allowing Ernesto to move more to the northwest now, coupled perhaps with the continual reorganization of the storm that we have seen over the past few days. How this feature evolves today and tomorrow will determine whether or not Ernesto will ever fully get underneath that subtropical ridge and start to turn back more toward the west or west-northwest. Most of the model guidance does not believe that this will be the case and, given the shear zone setting up between the ridge and Ernesto, I don't either. Trough fracture has not occurred and does not appear that it will occur in a region that allows Ernesto to significantly bypass this upper low. To compound matters, this upper low is starting to serve as an evacuation mechanism for the outflow from the storm, aiding in its intensification.

What this does is places southern Florida and most of the eastern 2/3rds of Cuba at significant risk for an impact from Ernesto. While shocking at first, with more data to evaluate now as we head into the early afternoon hours, the model guidance trends and NHC track shift are starting to make a little more sense. The upper low over the north-central US is slowly progressing eastward, though is having a hard time breaking down the western extent of the subtropical ridge right now. This is projected to change, though there's not a whole lot to the west of this upper low to drive it into the ridge. Despite this, model guidance responds by creating enough of a weakness to gradually turn Ernesto to the northeast around 29-30 degrees N. This weakness isn't going to be a big one, but if Ernesto is far enough east or strong enough in the Gulf, it should feel this weakness. Question is, where is it going to be in 4 days?

A couple of scenarios can play out from here.

1: First, model guidance is accurate, with the storm continuing northwest all the way from its current location to south Florida, turning north and northeast somewhere between the eastern coast and 100 miles west of the western coast of the state. This suggests that the upper low to the north of Ernesto will keep enough of a weakness in the steering flow for the storm to track northwest now, while the upper low over the north-central US will be strong enough to force the subtropical ridge to move and/or breakdown.

2: A different scenario takes the storm further west, with Ernesto turning more toward the west-northwest over Cuba, potentially from a combination of impacts from the upper ridge over the western Atlantic as well as not as vertically deep of a storm due to continued interaction with Cuba. Also, outflow from Ernesto starts to diabatically modify its own environment, as it somewhat has already, and helps amplify that ridge despite interaction with Cuba. Historically, this scenario is not well-captured by any of the global models. The trough still comes to get Ernesto, but with only a gradual turn and acceleration and a more likely impact from Pensacola to the Big Bend.

So, which one is more likely? Only time will tell. Despite this, everyone in Florida -- and potentially further north along the southeast coastline for a rain threat -- needs to watch Ernesto closely today and tomorrow, as the situation is currently very fluid and subject to rapid change based upon the evolution of the upper pattern and the intensity of the storm. While Texas and likely Louisiana are safe from an impact as of now, I don't feel comfortable excluding Mississippi and Alabama from a potential threat as of yet given the nature of the situation. It is a situation with less confidence than normal, thus I feel those regions outside the NHC cone still need to pay attention to Ernesto at least for another day.

Residents of the Florida Keys should begin to make evacuation plans for the early morning hours tomorrow in advance of the storm. Residents of the southern half of the Peninsula should begin reviewing their hurricane preparedness plans, just in case. Residents further north along the west coast of Florida north of Tampa need to begin thinking about making preparations for a potential direct imapct from Ernesto sometime late in the workweek. Everyone else just needs to stay abreast of the situation for the time being.






Ernesto: What's Going On?
Posted: 12:41 PM 27 August 2006 | Edit
Early this afternoon, Hurricane Ernesto sits just southwest of the southwestern Haitian coastline, slowly moving off to the west-northwest. It continues to gradually become better organized as the shear being imparted upon it by the upper low to its west has greatly diminished over the past 24 hours, but interactions with land are serving to keep intensity in check for the time being. The big question with Ernesto isn't the current track, however, but the future track -- both short and long term.

Overnight, much of the model guidance shifted significantly to the right, highlighting the Florida Peninsula as being under the gun for an eventual impact from Ernesto. Breaking with standard operating practices, the NHC jumped on this change and wholeheartedly shifted their forecast track as of the 5a ET advisory this morning. Then, the GFS and GFDL shifted back to the west, highlighting the Florida panhandle, but now the GFS at 12z today has shifted even further to the east, suggesting a track over Miami and up the length of the peninsula. Other models continue to jump back and forth as well. Needless to say, without some sort of continuity, it's hard to pinpoint any one area as under the gun from Ernesto into next week, but current indications suggest it will be somewhere in Florida.

What is causing this uncertainty and all of these jumps? It's not from a better representation of the storm; all of the models except the GFDL maintain a very weak storm as they have throughout Ernesto's lifecycle. It stems from uncertainty in what the upper level feature currently over the intermountain west is going to do over the next few days. It also stems from uncertainty in the short-term track of Ernesto. Let's start with this latter point.

Initial projections for Ernesto had the subtropical ridge over Florida and the western Atlantic building in to the north of storm, allowing it to move on a more westerly path across the Caribbean. Problem is, Ernesto isn't south of it yet. An upper low located to its north, a feature that has been there through its history, has not weakened or moved out of the region to the east as had been forecast. This is keeping a bit of a weakness in the ridge and allowing Ernesto to move more to the northwest now, coupled perhaps with the continual reorganization of the storm that we have seen over the past few days. How this feature evolves today and tomorrow will determine whether or not Ernesto will ever fully get underneath that subtropical ridge and start to turn back more toward the west or west-northwest. Most of the model guidance does not believe that this will be the case and, given the shear zone setting up between the ridge and Ernesto, I don't either. Trough fracture has not occurred and does not appear that it will occur in a region that allows Ernesto to significantly bypass this upper low. To compound matters, this upper low is starting to serve as an evacuation mechanism for the outflow from the storm, aiding in its intensification.

What this does is places southern Florida and most of the eastern 2/3rds of Cuba at significant risk for an impact from Ernesto. While shocking at first, with more data to evaluate now as we head into the early afternoon hours, the model guidance trends and NHC track shift are starting to make a little more sense. The upper low over the north-central US is slowly progressing eastward, though is having a hard time breaking down the western extent of the subtropical ridge right now. This is projected to change, though there's not a whole lot to the west of this upper low to drive it into the ridge. Despite this, model guidance responds by creating enough of a weakness to gradually turn Ernesto to the northeast around 29-30 degrees N. This weakness isn't going to be a big one, but if Ernesto is far enough east or strong enough in the Gulf, it should feel this weakness. Question is, where is it going to be in 4 days?

A couple of scenarios can play out from here.

1: First, model guidance is accurate, with the storm continuing northwest all the way from its current location to south Florida, turning north and northeast somewhere between the eastern coast and 100 miles west of the western coast of the state. This suggests that the upper low to the north of Ernesto will keep enough of a weakness in the steering flow for the storm to track northwest now, while the upper low over the north-central US will be strong enough to force the subtropical ridge to move and/or breakdown.

2: A different scenario takes the storm further west, with Ernesto turning more toward the west-northwest over Cuba, potentially from a combination of impacts from the upper ridge over the western Atlantic as well as not as vertically deep of a storm due to continued interaction with Cuba. Also, outflow from Ernesto starts to diabatically modify its own environment, as it somewhat has already, and helps amplify that ridge despite interaction with Cuba. Historically, this scenario is not well-captured by any of the global models. The trough still comes to get Ernesto, but with only a gradual turn and acceleration and a more likely impact from Pensacola to the Big Bend.

So, which one is more likely? Only time will tell. Despite this, everyone in Florida -- and potentially further north along the southeast coastline for a rain threat -- needs to watch Ernesto closely today and tomorrow, as the situation is currently very fluid and subject to rapid change based upon the evolution of the upper pattern and the intensity of the storm. While Texas and likely Louisiana are safe from an impact as of now, I don't feel comfortable excluding Mississippi and Alabama from a potential threat as of yet given the nature of the situation. It is a situation with less confidence than normal, thus I feel those regions outside the NHC cone still need to pay attention to Ernesto at least for another day.

Residents of the Florida Keys should begin to make evacuation plans for the early morning hours tomorrow in advance of the storm. Residents of the southern half of the Peninsula should begin reviewing their hurricane preparedness plans, just in case. Residents further north along the west coast of Florida north of Tampa need to begin thinking about making preparations for a potential direct imapct from Ernesto sometime late in the workweek. veryone else just needs to stay abreast of the situation for the time being.

Hurricane Ernesto Eyes Florida?

The cutesy girl with my voice (I sound like I'm 14 in person) says, "there has been a little change to the forecast cone) and then lets everyone know they will be updating Hurricane Ernesto every hour...

A little change?

For one.. he is a full fledged HURRICANE..
For two.. we are now in the 5 day cone..
For three.. the guy who was talking just before her with his co-anchor was talking about how he wasn't ready to put up shutters yet but he may look through his supplies.

Good Morning Hurricane Ernesto!

Good Morning Hurricane Center who has now gone with the models that are beginning to come together for a path way this way somewhere... what was yesterday the right side of the Cone is now getting closer to the middle of the cone.

Gonna be a long day..

Paying bills, looking for bills, looking for money to pay bills and taking my son to a Bar Mitzah Party.. might turn the cellphone back on from "meeting mode" where it has been so I could relax. Seems "relax" time over.

Seems I will look through my hurricane supplies...

Oh gosh... I need some real coffee if I am gonna do this...

Oh.. supply I have already... few cans of Starbucks Expresso sitting on my book shelf, for those mornings you can't wait to make hot water on your little home made sterno burner ...

Wishing I was in Key West... at the little cafe across from Atlantic Shores at the end of Duval watching the sun come up with the coffee in my hand.. feeling the air rushing at me from Cuba... and Ernesto..

I want to see that movie today and I don't have time.. more later...

Bottom Line... upgraded to Hurricane, track shifted to the East.. now affecting Hispanola, shear starting to disapeer and he is suddenly moving into a very favorable environment and........NHC blinked and finally gone with a NW movement. Look at that... jim is in the Cone lol (giggling) Sorry..

And, I wonder... Oh gosh.. can this storm clip the Keys, keep Miami in the NE quarter and come in near Tampa and cross the state. IS that possible? A Donna sort of path for you old timers.

Shuky called from Israel last night, something about changing schools, this yeshiva, that yeshiva, FIU South Campus... gee I wonder where his mind is and oh by the way.. he expected Miami to get strong squalls and have to watch out for twisters in the squalls. Wonder where his mind is..... Chabad House isn't all there is out there at FIU these days.

More to follow... before I go off for a day in the park..

Bobbi
thoughts from last night..


Here are my thoughts from last night.. still valid..computer wouldn't let me post or gremlins..which ever..

Shabbos was wonderful. Well, at least it gave me a good rest and a chance to stop and breathe a bit.

After Shabbos I heard from Ernesto! How bout that...

So... what is going to be? We will see.

Watched Norcross talk at 11pm on Ernesto and then went to bed which was nice... unfortunately some beeper went off and woke me up and here I am.. looking around online.

My thoughts?

Ernesto will most likely stay to the right side of the cone... far right as they used to say in old Cane-FSU games :)

Will see..
Here are my thoughts from tonight and I will update in the morning.

Have to go back to bed before I wonder too much on why someone was put on hold for 5 minutes to the tune of "The Sting" and imagine that was just a funny oldie goldie memory from way back in the early 70s. Funny how that song is still around.

Post below.. will update in the morning after a good night's sleep ..

Bryan Norcross was on air tonight for a special in depth look at Ernesto. I for one was grateful, a good look at the storm.

He did a very good, thorough discussion for people who have interests in the Caribbean (most of Miami) and the "general viewing area" which means... the Keys. People up north probably forget that the Keys get their TV out of Miami so it is Miami's job to give a forecast for anything that would affect them in any way. Probably, people think he is just hyping a storm. Miami is a complex community and when I take the bus in the morning... a jitney actually I hear the news from Cuba, the Caribbean and the North Coast of Haiti in both Creole and Spanish.Just a note to explain.. Norcross is not hyping a hit for Miami but giving info for those with loved ones in Cuba or back home in Haiti. Plus, if Ernesto follows the right side of the Cone (and there is every reason to believe from his track record so far he will) then we may have some impact on our weather..however small... around Tuesday.Notes below.. shorthand..sorry.. best I can do right now.stronger yet looks ragged..A little bit more rounded, burst of thunderstorm activity around the center.. Also "lifted" north today (note usage of word "lifted" carefully chosen)He is worried on flooding in Haiti.Upper Level Low looks as if it is starting to move away which is why the center of Ernesto looks a bit better on the last few frames.
Bryan is really so good, he stays on topic and doesn't let go of a topic until he is done completely.How close to Cuba is it going to be? If it stays over water and only go over a small part of land or ... go over most of Cuba. He also mentioned that the water around Cuba is very HOT.

Friday, August 25, 2006

Introducing Tropical Storm Ernesto!

Welcome to the World of Tropical Weather...and Meet Ernesto, the 5th Named Storm of the 2006 Hurricane Season!

Ernesto was born today in the Tropics and after a long discussion of message boards of was he a wave, was he a storm.. the NHC made the final call and called him Tropical Storm Ernesto. Recon went in, found the winds were high enough and they went with Recon as they always do..

There is a general wnw movement expected though if you constult message boards you will see everywhere from Brownsville to NYC as a destination. It is called "wishcasting" though I would say Houston has higher odds than Puerto Vallerto or Richmond, Virgina though if I could send it to Prince William Virginia or wherever I might consider it but.. nope... it's on a wnw path that may or may not take it across the island of Jamaica.

My personal feeling is that watching the WV loop there is a lot of uncertainty in the path of Ernesto.

First off all there has been record breaking bad weather across North America and I find it hard to believe that since the high has not yet built in strong that .. that weather won't pull, tug Ernesto just a bit more north of wnw.. lows like to go to lows and until that high builds west and sets up a real block (and it hasn't in my opinion) it will have some influence on it.

Second.. shear alone may try and force it a bit more north than west to wnw like many want to see it go.

Models aren't all that together on this storm across the board, both in intensity and in timing.

http://www.skeetobiteweather.com does a good job with models and an easy to access way of linking people to stats.. though visually enticing it is not as comprehensive as www.hurricanecity.com (my personal favorite) or www.flhurricane.com which is a bit all over the place on their message board but much can be learned there. www.tropicalatlantic.com is a site from our board at hurrcity with nice info.

For the best online discussion I really think Jim is better than Joe Bastardi, and I am being honest about that not just saying so because he is Jim but he doesn't go off on tangents as much or is ego folksy stuff that Joe does and you have to pay through the nose for Joe and Jim stays on topic, shows great images and draws great paths across the Caribbean. Check it out.. it's right above the area which tells you the advisory and in the top center of his site. www.hurricanecity.com. Listen and watch a bit and you get a real good view of what is going on with Ernesto.

So... I'm going to sit back and let the models shoot it out and see where he is after Shabbos. I'll be back on then and we will see what he has done.

I think he will pull a bit north of wnw personally, somewhere between wnw and nw and then as the ridge builds in he will shift back to a more true wnw path.. up towards Cuba.. Isle of Pines.. from there.. it's anyone's game.

There is a lot of weather being funneled down on the water vapor from the weather up north and it can get some real interesting eddies and upper level lows forming and worried one might form NW of Ernesto.. but not sure on that. I watch the water vapor loop. If you get a chance, watch Cantore do the WV loop on The Weather Channel. No one is better than Cantore with a Water Vapor Loop.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/avn-l.jpg
pretty huh?

As for the discussion below it was taken from the 5pm.. to show you how uncertain these things are..

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT5+shtml/252042.shtml


First it says this:
AND THEN INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 285/14. OTHERWISE...THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY OR THE TRACKFORECAST FOR THE FIRST 72 HR. ERNESTO IS SOUTH OF A LOW/MID-LEVELRIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...

VS
then it says that:
WHILE THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS HAVING ENOUGH OF A WEAKNESS FOR THE CYCLONE TO TURN NORTHWARD.

with the big closer of..
THERE IS A CHANCE THAT ERNESTO COULD BE MUCH STRONGER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.

Beven did the 5pm. I love Beven. He is one of the best over there.

And, speaking of the best over there.. Max Mayfield stunned everyone earlier today in a hurricane briefing letting those closest to him at work in on his retirement plans. News shot across the meteorological world faster than a speeding bullet. Wow. I am stunned, surprised... he has always called his job "his calling" and so .. well.. I guess like Forrest Gump said (as he said) he wants to go home.

I know that feeling. I felt like that all day.. I just wanted to go home. But, not sure where home is and I don't live where I think "home" is anymore so ... I know how he feels.

Shabbos dinner:
Whole Chicken Stuffed with Stuffing (of course)
Roasted Potatoes, Carrots and Onions.
Babaganush
Vegetarian Liver
Humus
Salad
Wine, Red wine from Spain.. very good wine.
Challah
Gefilte Fish
Freshly baked cake

Good Shabbos..
I'll be back Saturday night.. God Bless Harvey for a wonderful adjustment today so that I could function and God Bless Uri for leaving me the Strawberry Vodka in the freezer (nice son-in-law) and God bless friends here, there and everywhere.

And......personally.. I love Ernesto, think he will rock the Caribbean more than anyone expected but we will see..

Good Shabbos, Have a great weekend, TGIF!

Bobbi

Thursday, August 24, 2006

Hurricane Andrew Remembered.. vs Katrina..

Hurricane Andrew remembered... vs coverage and discussions on Hurricane Katrina.. just my opinon mind you..

I blogged a bit on Andrew earlier... How can anyone overlook such a
storm?

Recent history still sells as a very controversial event. The diaster
being one part tropical and more than one part political from
Katrina.... Breakdown of the canals and levee systems and refusal to
provide a proper eveacuation for a tragedy everyone knew was only a
matter of time.

Two totally different storms.

Andrew is and was the real hurricane story. An almost nuclear sort of
bomb in its neat, tight compact fury slamming into the sleepy hamlet of
Homestead and broke a dry spell of no storms affecting the South Florida
area for over 25 years.

Can you imagine? Miami went over 25 years without a Hurricane. If you
saw Hurricanes in the title it meant they won the National
Championship...

But Miami was prepared at least for the evacuation of old retirees
living on Miami Beach, of tourists, of residents. People lined up all
along Collins Avenue and took bus after bus to the mainland. The
Dolphins Park and Ride lot on Miami Beach was filled with Fins and
Hurricane Fans being transported to safety. Shelters opened, people were
informed, prepared and a bit terrified and.......... In disbelief that a
storm would really hit Miamim

"They always turn at the last minute" was the cry of many who reminded
people of David who had tunrned.

Andrew didn't turn. It slammed into South Miami Dade like a small atom
bomb, a Category Five and taught us all a lesson. They don't always
turn. Just because you go a generation without a landfalling hurricane
does not mean you can rely on luck forever.

Is Tampa and Jacksonville listening?
Because New Orleans didn't listen.

The lack of preparation for such an event should be soul searching for
those who were in a position to do something but didn't.

Andrew was a screaming tropical event and I lay on a mattress on the
second floor of my house on Miami Beach with kids, flashlights and a
radio listening to Bryan Norcross as he talked nonsop his hoarse voice
being drowned out at times by the moaning, screaming sounds of Andrew's
shrill hurricane fury as he bent the austrailan Pine Trees a block
away...and the winds sang through their beautiful branches. With the
stronger bands you could hear the ounding of the surf carried by the
wind. What a wind.

Homestead was flattened, Miami Beach survived. We sat waiting for the
storm surge that never came, the roof never leaked (and it leaked often)
as it was a dry storm. And, Homestead had damage that Gulfport got but
was rarely seen on TV because the press was covering New Orleans more.

And truth be told.. They are two different storms and two different
tragedies.

After Andrew no one was prepared for the clean up. The State and Federal
Governments sat waiting for Miami Dade County to fax them requests not
realizing no one was going to work and no one had electric. Kate Hall in
her famous "send in the marines" or cavalry speech had to point that
out. In Andrew we learned the lesson of how to prepare better for a
worst case scenario storm. But.. We were prepared before the storm and
for the storm.

So, I sit here and wonder....

Is Tampa and Jacksonville paying attention? It can and will happen to
you...

Andrew was totally amazing. It may not have been the great 1926
Hurricane that hit Miami Beach and downtown Miami as a wet, huge,
slowing moving Category Four but Andrew like all the big ones... Will be
remembered forever.

--bobbistorm

DEBBY EXPECTED TO REMAIN OUT TO SEA - NEW STORM FORMING CLOSER TO HOME?

...DEBBY EXPECTED TO REMAIN OUT TO SEA...


This is the story regarding Debby and even though there has been some concern the past few days in possible problems in track.. seems a done deal today.

Keep in mind the caveat always "things change" and they can change fast or rather peculiarly in the tropics but pretty much Debby is a Fish but evidence that the Cape Verde Islands CAN produce this year and..........there is an amazing wave still over Africa that you could literally see twisting it's way towards the water. That wave should really be watched. If we are watching waves far away.. there was one over the Indian Ocean that I am sure some trackers are going orgasmic over.. long term trackers anyway.

Things were busy yesterday for me as my children started school and first days are always big, there is always just ONE book they HAVE to have from Barnes and Noble or "they will get an F" so... I trekked over to B&N with Sharon (who moved back to town for a while ...for you long term readers) and then we did lunch at some Israel Burger Joint. Like old times :) And, at my college they started heavy duty construction of new offices for Professors and Adjunct Professors. Amazing to see these guys work, they knocked down walls, put up walls, set doors.. all in one day. Really hard workers. Had a very nice talk with a guy who lives in Homestead who was born in Brownsville, Texas but the talk was all about Andrew. He doesn't remember the storms when he was a baby but he remembers Andrew well... doors popping, glass shattering, worrying over his mother's house which was falling apart nearby as his one story apartment held miraculously together. Dead Center in the Middle of Andrew... can you imagine? I can. So... he watches this year and every year though he doesn't seem worried.. just watches. We all do. Another nice guy who was from Tashkent but we didn't talk tropical... not really hurricane country.

This is Hurricane Country and right now all eyes are on a wave that is about to enter the Caribbean and is slowly coming together just as some people thought it might.

Have to give credit to Jim (Williams) as he has followed this wave for days and now the Hurricane Center is thinking on sending planes in.. keep watching. But, he has been curious on it since all I saw was showers in the ITCZ down in the Atlantic. It wasn't easy to pick out but over at HurricaneCity they have been watching and talking, calling it "Jim's Wave" as he watched that while many of us oogled the newer waves off the Cape Verde Islands. Will see today but it has blown up bright and beautiful on the enhanced IR loop and seems to have a real shape, a pull, a compelling look to it that may keep us busy for the next few days. Some models develop it going on a more WNW to NW towards the Bahamas fast?? where as many take it into storm status in the Carib and you hear all the local ports of call...Jamaica and Isle of Pines.. Isles of Youth.. Isles of waiting for Castro to die and ghosts of all the political prisoners left to rot there way back when in the 60s and 70s and... well.. Isle of Pines to me is always tropically connected...the newer name politically. Some have bets on where this will go but first it needs to develop and get a name and if it does develop........... oddly for me, Jim's storm will be named Ernesto. Just a funny personal haha in my life. The tropics are amusing as always and today we are safe from Tropical Trouble.

Then again............today is one of those Anniversary Days when I go down to Miami Beach and look up at the big, beautiful, proud Royal Palm Trees and remember I thought that I might never see them stand so tall and proud of Lincoln Road, back to the night before Andrew when I thought everything I knew and loved about Miami Beach would be Gone With The Wind... but Andrew hit Homestead where the nice Tex/Mex/Indian guy lived and I was safe on Miami Beach in my old 1926 Roaring Twenties style home that had withstood the 26 storm long ago.

Yep, today in Miami is Andrew Reminder day..and the next few because our world changed in ways that will remind us always... as I stare up at the poster above my computer with Andrew.. one bright red, orange and yellow buzz saw sits feasting dead center over the Miami area.. reminding me always... it CAN happen, it HAS happened and it WILL happen AGAIN...

Amazing poster, amazing storm... Amazing Andrew..

Debby is heading out to sea... watch Jim's wave down in the Atlantic near the Islands as it just may become Ernesto later today or tomorrow..

Happy Thursdays, Happy Tracking, Happy Trails..
Bobbi