Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Wednesday, January 17, 2018

Snow Day in Raleigh & Much of the East Coast


It's really so beautiful. The snow is just falling steady and I was so ready for it. A little over two weeks ago I looked at several long term forecasts as well as various loops and long range models and decided to go to Miami to see my new granddaughter from January 10th through the 16th. I chose those dates because airfare was crazy cheap during an "End of the Year Sale" on Southwest ($63 one way RDU to FLL) and because I figured I could go to Florida and enjoy some warm weather during the January Thaw. I could get back in time for the possible snow event in Raleigh and basically I nailed it. Kind of proud of myself as forecasting a snow event in Raleigh is close to impossible. When I moved here reading the forecast discussion in the winter was like cutting my teeth while trying to eat glass. It was a whole new weather lingo and trying to understand Miller A and Miller B storms along with warm nose problems makes a tropical weather person feel dizzy. But...over time... I got it down and now the snow is coming down. Years ago online I predicted where Hurricane Charley would most likely make landfall when the NHC was extremely iffy as the projected track paralleled the coastline. I'm more excited about nailing this forecast than that one.... go figure.

You can't control everything in life. Try controlling a two year old baby or a teenager. You can't always control your health or wealth or lack of ... You can't control the weather but you can try and work with the models and be where you want to be when a hurricane makes landfall or heavy rain falls from the ground. Harder to catch a falling star or the Northern Lights or that proverbial green flash as the sun sets into the water. You can control how you react and respond usually. I was in the market this morning picking up a few things fast and when it began to snow children started screaming and most of the people who moved to Raleigh from Pittsburgh began to grit their teeth and bitch. I'm from Miami, the local news is on nonstop and there is no Cat 3 on it's way nor is a storm surge headed towards downtown. Just a rare snow event in Raleigh; last time it snowed heavy was 3 years ago in this particular neck of the woods.


If you think it's intense in Virginia...
...check out those reds in Canada!


So let's get to the weather. This Winter Storm #Inga has left it's mark over a wide area from Texas and Louisiana to Raleigh and up the coast all the way to the NY NJ metro area. There are watches and warnings everywhere. Hopefully it will be a fast mover and move out just as fast. However there is a Low developing over the Carolinas that will give it that extra push that will amp up it's long term snow totals and wicked, winter weather. To quote Jimmy Buffett we are "all in it" and there's snow to the left and snow to the right and pretty much everywhere we are dealing with the Winter of 2017 - 2018. Tomorrow that blue will cover more areas and there may be some expanding lilac.

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In North Carolina they dumped over 2 million gallons of brine on the roadways. We try to do everything in Raleigh these days to avoid the national spotlight of the snowmaggedon pictures of stranded tourists with photo shopped monsters standing on a very steep hilltop that iced over immediately as soon as the snow began to fall. Today the snow projections are on the rise with every new model run. If the models are right (GFS and EURO pretty close) five inches would be on the low side. But for now those are the official snow total projections below. If anything they will be upgraded to higher totals.


Allan Huffman always excellent.



NWS Raleigh


NWS NY


And everything in between is seeing snow.
Not a good time to be on I95 traveling.
Tomorrow will be better...


Miami was wonderful and today I'm in a Winter Wonderland in Raleigh. This recent trip was intense as I spent time with two sweet older women and two sweet babies. Kind of puts life into perspective when you hold a baby that weighs about 5 to 6 pounds and then you take your 85 year old mother to get a new pair of glasses and sit for hours with your husband's 97 year old Great Aunt. I'm not sure that my Granddaughter Olivia knew who I was but she's learning. I know my mother-in-law forgets who I am and God Bless the sweet 97 year old who is smart and quick like a whip.Life is short, it's like a fast moving river. Enjoy the moment, savor the moment and share those moments with others. That's what I try to do here on the blog. Sharing... 


One minute you are 3 weeks old...
In the blink of an eye...
..you're getting new glasses.


Or happy that someone came to visit you.


Or just happy to see the snow falling.


As always go to http://www.nhc.noaa.gov for official info and to www.spaghettimodels.com for tons of info, models and satellite imagery. Make sure your smart phones are properly enabled for weather warnings.

Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter


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Tuesday, January 16, 2018

Southern Snow... then moves up towards the NE


This basically tells the story.
A cold front so strong....
...it's diving into Florida.

Currently it's still far away.
Beginning to stick on some road ways.



Today the line is clearly defined.



Then the line fills in...
..spreads out.
Snow covers a wider canvass.
Note the gray in N Florida.
Possibly a dusting in Pensacola ..

Current image of where we are today.


Obviously possible for frozen precipitation..
...to cross that Florida Georgia Line again.
Been a real winter for a change.
Was a real hurricane season for a change.
What changed?
Papers will be written over time.

Great site for winter weather.
Great site for ALL weather.

http://spaghettimodels.com
I'll remind you again later ;)





I'm in Florida today on my way back to Carolina in a little while. I had a wonderful time with family and some treasured friends. I had a drink at Margaritaville and watched the palms sway and the waves move towards the shore. I squeezed it in fast between various obligations as I do have some priorities. I didn't get to the Keys, but this trip was not that sort of trip. March I'll be back, maybe February. I'm on other people's time these days as my kids are busy making babies, playing with bitcoins... getting presents and sharing life with me and my husband. My mother-in-law needed some extra attention and my husband's great Aunt who is somehow 97 years young and adorable needed some quality time. Kind of odd dealing with life and both ends of the spectrum... starting out and and living life at the other end after a full life. It makes you think a lot...


Took this pic blocks from my old house.
My old hang outs.

I know it looks so tropical even if it was windy and I put a jacket on. When I was young we'd walk over late Saturday afternoon to the bridge just out of view and watch the lights turn on at the hotels that lined Indian Creek. Collins Avenue twinkles in the twilight always and then long ribbons of intense colors shimmer across Indian Creek. It's the every day view that postcards try their best to capture.  Hard to explain to people you grew up in paradise; nothing really ever can compete. When my ex-husband drove me around Beverly Hills to show it off (he's a Valley Boy) I was surprised because as beautiful as it is... and it is.... there are areas in Coral Gables and Coconut Grove that are more beautiful. Okay, places on Miami Beach that are way more beautiful than Beverly Hills. I'd take Bal Harbour anyday over Beverly Hills. You would too if you knew both of them as well as I do. Not to digress from the weather, but I had some great times with my ex in LA in the 1980s; life was good. Life is always good if you work hard at making it good and find the beauty in life, places and relationships. We're friends now from a distance as he lives in NYC. I'm somewhere between Carolina and Miami on any given day with my husband or my kids or my friends. As always I'm in awe of the weather though it's nicer to be able to walk around without coats or boots or even long sleeves just feeling the breeze under the stars in January. 


But I'm going home to winter weather.
I know many of you are wondering..
"How much snow will we get?"


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This set up will continue for a while. Check out the satellite loop. Note the big huge spinning High in the Atlantic and the train of moisture pulling North from the tropics to meet up with the continual train of fronts moving across the US. You can see how this impacts the South before it finds it's way further north. Note the image from Twitter below where "Cranky" comments on this set up. I'll say it again, I expect the 2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season to be active much like the 2017 season.


There are links galore at Spaghetti Models.
If you do not do Twitter...
You can follow his feed.
Scroll down to the bottom.
On the right side.
Great discussion.


Or go to Twitter.
Best source for news.
In Hawaii...those on Twitter.
Knew the alert was not real.
Think about it.
Get on Twitter for news.

Who knew it was warmer in Alaska than Atlanta?


I'll update later today if I have the time.
Today is travel day.

Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter
Ps...again on vacation not proofing my spelling ;)


The Seminole Wind is gonna be cold...
Very cold in Florida.

Monday, January 15, 2018

January Thaw Ending... Winter Returns. Live in the Moment. Enjoy.

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Weather forecast in motion.
I'll get back to it soon.

Things I've learned on this trip home. I call it home as it is definitely one of my homes as I spend part of my time in Florida and part in North Carolina. It's "home" as in "touching base" and "exhaling" while I break my Carolina routine and am forced to do things differently. That change in the routine often makes me think too much but in a good way. Some of us process things more than others and I'm one of them. For instance, it occurs to me that my mother who refused to fly because she didn't trust some pilot or their machine to do things vs being afraid of heights, would never want to own a car that drives itself. That said she loved driving... I suppose she loved being in control and driving made her feel free so that SHE could take off and go anywhere anytime she wanted. The idea of programming a route would have made her annoyed as if she was committing to a route. My father was like that too... Every stop sign gave him time to debate which way was mathematically the fastest, best route to where he was going and he was always updating that route in real time much like WAZE does today.

I heard an old friend Rabbi Manis Friedman speak Saturday evening about the connection between a parent and a child so I'm processing these inner thoughts and sharing them a bit on the blog.

It's Mid January. Mid January is that time when people in some parts of the country realize that it is most definitely winter as in "deep into winter" and they begin thinking on Spring. Funny how we never stop and enjoy where we are at as we are always looking towards the next season that is months away. Okay, some people do but many do not. In Miami we don't really have seasons of the meteorological kind. We have hurricane season (over) and football season (so over for the Dolphins) and Mango season (not there yet) and tourist season (oh my Lord try and eat out somewhere on Miami Beach this week....) and we have one other season. Miami Winter means that when the sun disappears briefly or the wind begins to blow we run find out jacket or put on our boots. Moments later the sun comes out and the wind dies down and we begin to take our sweater and boots off and scrounge around the floor of the car for our sandals and flipflops. We don't ditch the sweater because we will walk into a restaurant that has the AC on set to 69 degrees and we are cold again. The struggle is real.

My son went to Cincinnati on a short trip and got to see snow, ice and apparently Northern Kentucky. I've never been there though my son said I'd like it. Art Deco skyscrapers reaching up into the sky and a snow covered ground below. The food is good. As much as I love geography the concept that Cincinnati is basically really North Kentucky never hit me. I often refer to Raleigh as Eastern Tennessee and jokingly say that NC is Tennessee's beach. They have much in common until you get all the way down to just North of South of the Border or way East of I95 where the BBQ sauce is different.

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Weather comes and goes while climate remains the rule. Currently we are going through our "January Thaw" and as soon as we have thawed out winter returns with a vengeance. Note the maps below. Today snow is up there where it belongs. Over the next 5 days it dips down into an area not used to winter weather again. This year that see saw is on automatic drive much or an old computer programming loop. What goes away will come back and stay a bit longer each time until we are deeper into February and the depth of winter. And, then........ Spring beckons again as daffodils push their way up through the frozen ground and the last of the snowbirds get on JetBlue and fly back up north to where they belong.

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So my final thoughts today are as such. Enjoy the day and it's own uniqueness the way we savor good food or a new born baby.  Enjoy the snowflakes or the wind and enjoy the daffodils and the quieter streets once the "season" is over the tourists go home if you live in Miami.

Oh and if you are on Miami Beach and looking for a really nice place to eat that the tourists have not discovered it seems Capri Restaurant on 41st Street (Arthur Godfrey Drive) was a wonderful experience. While I am not on Paleo on this vacation I had Pasta with a white cream sauce and various types of fake shellfish. It's a kosher place but they do sushi and salads and you can find something you will enjoy even if you are not kosher or vegan. Note the Mexican Kosher place down the block "Carlos and Gabby" was packed and not serving food as they had "issues in the kitchen" so we left and found another place to eat. Will do "Carlos and Gabby" when in New York. Sometimes it's nice to try something new and find a real delight while home walking on my old "Main Street" a few blocks from my parent's house. 

So that's it from my "winter vacation" today while home in Florida. My son Moe is cooking breakfast in the kitchen, but waiting for my other son Zalmy to finish at the gym and go somewhere for a while to get some quality time.

Quality time. When was the last time you had good quality time?

My grandson will only fall asleep to the sound of rain on his parent's mini iPad .. I guess we must be related. 

Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter

Savor the moments. It's the moments that make a big difference often. 

One moment you are struggling towards your dream and the next moment... victory.


Sunday, January 14, 2018

Weather...All a Matter of Perspective - Sunny & 75


Life like weather is all a matter of perspective. You either live a great life or a terrible life and both can be true for the same life but different from the perspective of whoever is judging your life. How people get depressed on Facebook for feeling inferior to others simply because they do not stand around smiling posing for #selfies vs those who act as if they have just won an OSCAR every time they get a slice of pizza with their significant other is beyond me. If someone is HAPPY and SMILING on social media all the time they are either high, drunk or a pretender. If someone is SAD and depressed all the time in pictures they may have a problem with depression or they may be exhausted because they got dragged out to some party they didn't want to go to ....

Weather is much like life. If I see snowflakes in my forecast for Wednesday I do a happy dance or smile in a victorious way. The same snowflakes make others cry, curse and look for tickets out of town to somewhere warmer fast. Or they may simply call in sick and lay in bed feeling doomed because that white stuff is falling from the sky again. I love weather. I love snow. I can't wait for a few drops to fall from the sky in some form of frozen precipitation. 20 degrees and cold seems naked without some wintry precipitation every once in a while. Some people actually plan trips around the long range weather forecast.

It's 66 degrees in Miami currently and that's about 40 degrees warmer than Raleigh (my other home) and I ditched the cowboy boots and took my sweater off as soon as the sun rose high in the sky. Florida sunshine is WARM... and unless the breeze picked up 66 feels like 76 degrees to me. Last night I was freezing and missed my boots. I sat outside with a sweater thrown around my shoulders at a friend's house cooking hot dogs over a Fire Pit and roasting marshmallows making Smores. The wine blew through the Palm Trees and I was annoyed I didn't dress warmer. I should have put the boots on. It was freezing. This morning at sunrise it was cold and the wind was blowing out of the North... winter in Miami. By 11 AM I was at Starbucks sitting outside in the sun with a friend sipping my coffee and talking while getting a suntan. She was wearing a sweater and very warm leggings while I was annoyed I still have my thin LuLu Roe leggings on under my skirt.

Then again in Raleigh the temperature was way below freezing but the warm sunshine was melting all the snow. I'm not sure exactly how that works but it did and for that matter anywhere that was in the shade still had piles of snow as if it had just snowed yesterday. Look right it was a winter wonderland. Look left and there was nothing left of the snow. Perspective meets illusion.

All is good. Logistics of family meetings, outings with best friends and trying to figure out what to wear when it's not really cold and not really hot in Miami during the winter.

All depends if the sun is out or if the wind is blowing.... I'm not going swimming as it's WINTER but definitely wearing sandals. Others will be wearing their winter boots. That's life. It's all a matter of perspective.

Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter

Friday, January 12, 2018

Mudslides Should Be Renamed... They Are NOT a Cute Drink or a Kid's Game... It's Basically a Tsunami. We Need to Do Better!




There's a song that goes "I've Seen Fire and I've Seen Rain" but there are very few songs about mudslides. Make that a "Facebook Challenge" and you won't get far. Yes, songs about Flood and the "earth move under my feet" as Earthquakes get into the public psyche but sadly..not much about using Mud Slides that are poorly named and should be Mud Tsunamis as they work much more like Tsunamis than a Mud Slide.

A "Mud Slide" sounds like a milkshake or a child's game. It's one of the most deadly, fastest moving and most difficult to predict in specifics than any other natural disaster. It's easy to know that after fires you have the dangers of mud slides, if you have lived in California for a long time....and many people have not as they drift in and drift out often never really experiencing the actual catastrophe. You see the "FIRES" denude the landscape. But it doesn't always rain like a typhoon in California. In fact as the song goes "it never rains in Southern California" right?  Nope, not true but you can go 300 days between such heavy rains and until it rains you don't know your roof leaks or the creek up in the mountains far from your home is about to go on an earthen, mud tsunami and rush down into the home you have treasured and finally paid off. Or perhaps you have just moved in during the dry season (most of the year) and it rained... suddenly you find out what happens when it really does rain heavy in Southern California after the fires destroyed all the plants that had roots that held the dirt and soil together.

And the confusion before this disaster was at record levels. Some people lived in areas that were mandatory evacuation zones on some maps and not on others. Some social media warnings did not work as they should have... who reads their Gmail anymore? Do you really check your town's Facebook Site every few hours for information (Seriously???) and one phone carrier seems not to have been on board with the emergency warning that most likely came way too late... as the mud began to flow. Once the mud flows and takes with it cars, parts of homes, trees and dead bodies moving at fast speed it's hard to out run a mud slide. Remember those videos of tsunamis? Yeah, it's like that ...

And speaking of Tsunamis... The very strong Earthquake in the Caribbean required Tsunami Warnings for many of the islands from Cuba to Puerto Rico and I'd venture to say that the Tsunami Warnings got more attention on Twitter and Facebook than the warnings the meteorologists had been screaming into the wind for days that the strong storm was moving into the area and there would be life threatening mud slides.

Perhaps we need some really hot, smart, sexy meteorologists who have their own cosmetic line and Reality TV Shows that could...would warn the general public about a possible deadly MUDFLOW that could happen after the strong storm without a name and more people would take it seriously. Celebrity News is so big and I'm pretty sure if Kristina Kardashian was a meteorologist she would have so many people following her and taking her seriously.  I may be sounding sarcastic here but I'm serious. It seems "Celebrity News" sells but meteorologists from the NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE warning of life threatening dangers is like screaming into the proverbial wind. And, I've said it before many times sadly no one puts the NWS people on TV nonstop the way they put the NHC people on to discuss a Hurricane that JUST LEFT AFRICA  about possible concerns for Florida or Texas. No... regular weather warnings just don't get the lead time and only after the mud begins to flow does the lead bleed and the media switches from an Agenda Based "News Platform" to showing pictures of 3 year olds who were swept away by a sudden flow of mud along with people in their 80s and everyone in between. Youtube starts showing awesome video and slowly story by story the media is all over it. After the barn door was left open and not given the air time it should have had before it began to rain. There was no tracking the storm... no cone... no fancy name that would be retired the way the hurricanes are tracked. But MUDSLIDES are just as deadly and more sudden than a tornado.

Lastly ... until the creek starts to rise and overflow and join with another creek that overflows into a street and moves downhill faster than you get start recording your video.. you don't know for sure which street will get the mud. There are so many variables across a wide expanse of land.

We need to do better. We need to find a better way.


In South Florida the debris is cleaned up and a few roof tops here and there are decorated with new bright blue tarps. Trees are growing back and the sun is shining bright and beautiful. The breeze blows and it's going to be 80 degrees today. I woke up last night to the sound of heavy rain on the rooftop sounding only the way it does in Miami in the early morning hours. Okay a few shutters are down and it hits the shutters sounding musical. The streets shone silvery and the sky looked golden.

In California in areas where the mud flowed the way a Tsunami flows they are digging out looking for bodies. People there were not warned the way people in Florida are warned of an incoming, landfalling Category 4 hurricane. The "mudslides" were catastrophically on the same level. The story got lost between which A List Super Popular male STAR got more more money than a less popular actress ...the Kardashian Pregnancy Drama and what Trump said or didn't say today. The MUDSLIDES should be renamed, named and given the same press attention as Hurricane HARVEY, IRMA and MARIA for days before hand.

Just my opinion.

We need to do better

Besos BobbiStorm

Ps... I'm on Grandma/Mommy watch and there may or may not be a few typos and a lot is going on here. Having a blast as always having breakfast and dinner usually on Hollywood Blvd or at some place by the Bay or a cute Kosher Israeli Restaurant touching base with all the people I need to touch base with... but the story of the disaster in California hits me personally. I've lived in LA and I've seen what happens when it finally pours... I love California but no one covers it's disasters until after the fact. This time people needed warning better, faster and more specifically direct. It's a Tsunami... not a cute drink with an umbrella in it. Sorry for any typos .. I'll fix later. Family is caslling...




Thursday, January 04, 2018

Snow.......Carolinas, Georgia ... East Coast. WinterCane Indeed.


Not Hype.
Not a Hurricane.
Definitely historic!


From Florida to Maine.
We're all dealing with Winter Weather!

You can call it BombCyclone or Winter Storm Grayson but it will be remembered as one of the deepest winter storms we have been able to enjoy watching on satellite imagery that is this precise. Look at that eye! Mike from www.spaghettimodels.com likes calling it a WinterCane and I agree. Way better name than #BombCyclone...


Cold everywhere. Even Florida.
But the Carolinas are in a Deep Freeze.


Oddly it was colder here than Boston.
Feels like 10...
NYC beat us at sunrise by 1 degree.
Though wind chill here was crazy!


Such a photogenic storm!

 But it's a dangerous storm. A friend was driving from NY to Miami and they said they were find until they hit Georgia. Trucks were over turned, pulled over and traffic crawled for hours. They are in Florida now. But... to be safe... if you can...stay home and stay off the roads. Luckily I am home and enjoying the best Snow Day and having waffles and eggs for breakfast (my husband is cooking ...can you tell?) and then maybe I'll go out and take some pictures. The wind was crazy this morning in Raleigh so most of the snow flew off the trees looking much like it was snowing. Haha .. Fake Snow!


I'm in a bit of a snow bubble here in Raleigh as it snowed just enough for me to feel I got snow! A nice heavy dusting in my area (means more than an inch) though snow totals are vastly different from one neighborhood to another. And down in Southern Pines that was not supposed to be slammed got slammed. OBX had winds up to 77 MPH (hurricane force) and Charleston looks like a winter wonderland! I'd be jealous, but it's not my style and it's still early in the winter so I'm expecting another winter event in the Carolinas as the trend continues. In Wilmington the kids are using surfboards to sled down the hill near the Cape Fear River. 




In NYC my daughter who lives in Brooklyn took Uber to her job near where she lives and my son-in-law is out and about driving around Brooklyn somewhere. Looks like a heavy snow fall and to be honest no where looks as beautiful as Brooklyn does in a snow storm. The snow against the brownstones and the maze of winter bare branches across the streets make it look like a scene in a movie always! Out on the island the winds are blowing the snow in from a different direction than usual and it definitely looks like a WinterCane more than a snow storm.  Sure looks like an eye to me ;)





Stay happy.
Rock Steady.
I love snow!

Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter

Ps... I can see palm trees swaying in the breeze anytime but can't see snow that often!

In the Carolinas we love seeing snow ... so yeah. I'm happy.

Wednesday, January 03, 2018

Snow in Florida. Ice in Lake City Florida. Winter Storm Grayson Forming & On the Move... Up the Coast. Wintercane! Cyclone Bomb (really thank u NY Media) Will Grayson Follow the Forecast Track or Provide Us a Frozen Surprise. WINDS in NY NE Intense... Tropical Storm Force Strength in a Blizzard!

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Watch it race up the coast!

Currently the satellite looks like this:





Happening Already...

Today



Day After Tomorrow



The in between tells the story.
How and where this storm evolves.
A storm for all chasers it seems...
Moves FAST like the 1939 Labor Day Hurricane.
Moves in FAST.
Moves out FAST.
Leaves Freezing Cold Behind.

To be honest this is not about chasing it's about watching weather history evolving in real time and watching it frame by frame as we stare at each new satellite image coming in while watching each new model run try to best handle what may be almost impossible. There are so many elements to this storm and the real issue is not being talked about as much as the historic hype that translates to many as simply "SNOW" or "Winter Storm" or for hard core TWC people "Winter Storm Grayson" 

But what are we really looking at? Well in Ocala they are getting cold, nasty rain. Further up the coast in Tally they got snow. There is much ice on some beautiful magniola trees and when you have that much ice on so many dark, heavy green leaves you have the potential for power outages and beautiful much loved trees coming down and bringing the power grid with them. So you have freezing rain, ice, snow and extremely strong winds further up north as this weather bomb transitions into a winter storm with possibly hurricane force winds; tropical storm force winds for sure though they are called Gale Centers up north as they race towards the Canadian Maritimes. I want you to think of the 1938 Hurricane but layer a blizzard on top of that track and with those same effects. Howling winds, stormy surf and speaking of surf they are having a problem along the Low Country beaches this morning as ice is forming along the marsh line and the the tide is coming in.



The word "historic" is bandied about way too often and when a real historic storm comes in people think it is merely hype and nothing more. Some storms are truly historic and this may be the first of several other systems later this winter. In the same way we thought Hurricane Harvey would be "THE STORY OF THE HURRICANE SEASON" we were sadly wrong as each storm laid a different layer of misery down onto the 2017 Hurricane Season. You can follow Michael Ventrice on Twitter if you are on Twitter and if you are not on Twitter ...why aren't you on Twitter? https://twitter.com/MJVentrice His loop shows the size and scope of this epic storm. 




Dabuh provided the music for me this morning.
Helped get me into the mood to blog.
Thank you... as always.


Let's look close up at that image.


What is that?
Looks like shock waves from an earthquake...
...or maybe isobars around a cyclone.
It is our Winter Storm.
Mike aka Spaghetti Models calls it:
"WINTERCANE"


Reed Timmer who does Twisters better than anyone.
Is all over this Winter Storm.
Blizzard Warnings from N FL to Maine..
You don't see that everyday.


So where do we go from here?

This is one of those times it is better to over prepare for an event as temperatures up north are and have been below freezing for days. Add in places Down South as I've lost track of how many hours it has been below freezing in Raleigh but I believe last night we were around 70 hours. It's warmed up to 21 degrees from around 15 at sunrise. We are flirting with above freezing around the middle of the day and I suggest just to be on the safe side "do some shopping for necessities" today rather than hear tomorrow that the forecast was a bust and we got more than side swiped snow flakes falling. If the power goes out... you want to have instant food. When New Bern begins to feel like Boston Harbor you have the potential for continued cold frozen weather and frozen precipitation making it even colder. Snow lays a cold blanket down and adds to the deepening cold temperatures.  Places along the Carolina coast from Elizabeth City to Norfolk and up into parts of Virgnia along the coast will be as frozen as the proverbial Delaware that Washington crossed. That also includes Little Washington a place on my bucket list to visit before I leave North Carolina if I ever actually move away from here.


There's the map above.
Note those thin lines can wiggle each way.
The storm is still forming.
Below are the cities watching carefully.



Again I'm concerned that areas not prone to ice storms are not fully prepared. I'm concerned that areas not used to Black Ice will lead to tragedies as people are unaware what Black Ice really is other than something you hear about on The Weather Channel. And, to be honest most people do not watch TWC anymore and if Roku isn't running warnings and while TED has lots of videos on how to improve our environment and global warming ... alas I could not find any on the dangers of Black Ice in North Florida. Weather is local, climate is global. 

So stay informed on the real time evolution of the storm. Make sure your phone is set to show you updated weather warnings. Hunker down and hope the forecast is not a bust or the brunt of Winter Storm Grayson goes somewhere else.

Savannah currently has ICE.
Freezing RAIN.


Great Lakes Icy.


Rapid Intensification is the problem.



Note PROJECTED track.
Up Close.


Any wiggle west ups the impact inland.
I95 Gonna be a mess.
Stay off the roads.
Hunker down.
NYC media calls it a "Bomb Cyclone"
I know as my daughter asked me what that was.

Just Keep It Simple here..

Strong, explosive, winter storm.
WIND layered on top of winter weather.
Frigid temperatures.

I'll update later.
It's still coming together.


Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter.


;) you were expecting the Beatles?
Nah... watch out for the unexpected with Grayson!
It seems to be over performing so far...



Concerns on the power grid between need for heat and people losing power from the effects of Ice.

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