Back From the Beach. Models Whisper Southern Snow. Pet Peeve about 1926 Miami Hurricane. Florida History. Weather Thoughts.

Yeah yeah it loves to promise snow late in the 10 day.

Other apps do it too.... it's model driven of course.

So we have a snowy jigsaw puzzle.

Keep watching.

Chick lives in the Sandhills.

Usually they have a slimmer chance than Raleigh.

Roxboro has the best chances usually.

Okay I'm home and the first thing to greet me this morning was the possibility of snow on my various weather apps. I use them but I don't trust them that much but it's a cheap thrill more a game than anything else. "What does the weather app show for the next 10 days" and come on we all do it because if you are reading this blog you are probably slightly obsessed with the weather. Any forecast beyond the five day to me is still iffy though I tend to trust the seven day a bit more. 10 days is speculation and innuendo and means as Brad says the pattern is favorable!

I'll wait to see what Wes in Raleigh says and Allan who is also in the Raleigh area over the next few days while adjusting to the cold night time temperatures again. Being into weather means that you check the weather often when making plans to celebrate events. This past weekend was a 10 year anniversary of sorts and I was debating whether to spend it in the Raleigh area or maybe drive to Charlotte or up to Highpoint but after checking the long range weather models I felt there was a good possibility we could pull off going to Myrtle Beach and the weather would be almost summer like if things fell into place. Again, what Chick said, it's a puzzle with pieces still falling into place when you watch the models. A suggestion of 72 degrees in Raleigh for Sunday was nice but a suggestion of similar temperatures at the beach if only the front would push through and clear out a good week's worth of gray skies and rainy days. Honestly did not see the sun for a week after getting back from Miami last week; after a while it does get to you I have to be honest and I don't generally mind a few rainy days. After an extremely beautiful sunset in Myrtle Beach's Broadway on the Beach I fell asleep to howling wind and woke up to this pristine, beautiful, incredible #nofilter sunrise with venus shining down on me. The last vestiges of clouds can be seen at the bottom of the horizon. Seen many beautiful sunrises in Myrtle Beach and other beaches but nothing like that.

I have blue skies outside out beyond the pine trees.

Carolina pines and Carolina Blue skies.

Winter in Raleigh when the sun shines.

Stu Ostro is good to follow.

He's one of the best.

Met him at some Hurricane Center event once.

He knows his stuff :)

This is a perfect example of an annular hurricane.

With that big, wide, perfectly round eye.

Wondering if that eye is bigger than the state of Rhode Island.

Possibly. Awesome and very far away.

A very strong February hurricane in the Pacific.

Strong and rare even for the Pacific.

Speaking of Hurricanes.

One of my biggest pet peeves is this:

"The 1926 Miami Hurricane killed the Boom"

No it did not.

I've written articles for Miami History magazines.

Researched endlessly with Dr. Paul George.

The Miami 1926 Hurricane hurt Miami.

But Miami was down for the count earlier that year.

The much awaited 1926 Winter Season was a BUST!

Bad press on true news stories flooded the national media.

New laws were put into place to stop bad real estate deals.

Binder Boys were flipping swamp land by the hour.

Binder Boys were in all the Boom Towns.

Both sides of the Florida Coast.

But they flourished in Miami.

https://www.heraldtribune.com/news/20150301/1920s-boom-not-a-walk-in-the-park

Real Estate practices then basically were like buying stock back when in that you could buy Florida Real Estate (not built on yet and often under water still) for a mere percentage of the price and that deal could be "flipped" and turned over ten times in an hour on mere speculation. Some of those subdivisions such as Coral Gables did get built, but many did not and people (tourists are people too) were swindled out of money by those hoping to make good money. New regulations were passed putting an end to the "Binder Boys" period ... a name mostly for their style of clothes they wore that were popular in the roaring 20s and their buying land on a binder... a wing and a prayer method that made them rich for a while. 

A huge ship named the Prins Valdemar capsized in a winter storm and ended up blocking the "turning harbor" that ships used to get into Miami and offload their lumber that was the fuel for the housing boom; without lumber it was hard to build houses and it was equally as hard to get other merchandise and people into the Magic City. Being Miami after they finally were able to get it up they hauled it over to the nearby docks and eventually turned it into a floating restaurant and party venue popular in Miami. Only in Miami does the problem get sold as a tourist attraction.

Add in two railroad strikes put a halt to the flow of money and people.

I mean in WINTER of 1926 you could not get to Miami for trying.

And you could not get building supplies or merchandise in either.

And the National Media now knew about the land swindles.

Florida Real Estate = Selling Swamp Land suddenly..

But oh what a time it was in the Roaring 20s.

Miami was a real paradise.

Before the ship capsized and the trains stopped running.

And the Media had a field day with the Binder Boys.

And then came the 1926 Miami Hurricane.

The Smithsonian does history.

But they should tell the whole story.

But hey it's more dramatic to blame it on the Hurricane.

And it is incredibly great footage.

It's fake in that the real footage was not in color.

But think of it as a colorized sequel :)

The hurricane gave Miami focus.

They cleaned up, rebuilt and were open again by 1927.

In the same way all the blue tarps from Irma are gone...

...and new construction is everywhere.

Hurricanes are a meteorological form of gentrification.

5 years after Hurricane Andrew....

... Homestead and Cutler Ridge property was worth way more.

People sold and left, real estate deals were everywhere.

Expensive construction with pools and higher price tags.

And the beat goes on .... 

North Carolina is beer country.

Beer is good on a rainy day.

Going to the beach is better when the sun comes out.

And the temperature is forecast to climb to 73!

And that is the beauty of Raleigh.

You can drive up to the mountains...

....or down to the beach.

Or just hang out in Raleigh.

But will it snow in Raleigh soon?

I'll be watching ...

But this week is mild temps and cold nights.

Works for me.

A little note here in that if we do get Carolina snow it's worth remembering some trees have early leaves and some trees are covered in early blossoms and a wet, messy snow will put pressure on those trees and I'm not even talking on the possibility of ice. So when things bloom early it's beautiful to see but it has a secondary threat if snow falls when flowers are on the trees and red maples already have new red leaves unfurling in the Carolina Blue sunlight.

And in about a month of so we will be worrying on pollen popping. Yep... Carolina has lots of seasons; summer, fall, winter, spring and pollen season!

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram.

Ps.... if you keep listening to that hurricane video on the 1926 the really chilling story is told on the 1935 Labor Day Hurricane. If you listen to the first hand survivors you will know it was not your average "storm surge" but truly a tidal wave that washed over the Florida Keys as the construction of the railroad created dams that early Florida author and ecologist warned against building that way but he was ignored and what he said would happen did happen and Florida Bay sucked the storm surge in the Atlantic over the railroad and the Florida Keys in one huge tidal wave that washed the train off the tracks and washing people out to sea. 

Carolina. Flooding From the Beaches to Charlotte .. Still Raining in Wilmington. Roads Closed. I94 I40 and multiple small roads. Stay Home. Stay Safe. Visit Carolina In Your Mind. #CarolinaStrong. Thoughts from Carolina on Florence.

Carolina is kind of closed today to travel.

This is the detour suggested.

Seriously.

This is why.

Florence is still here.

Caught in dead steering currents.

The death toll rises.

Trapped between High Pressure systems.

Pumping tropical moisture up over the Carolinas.

And parts of Virginia..

Look at her tail.

Hanging there.

Feeding her while she's way inland now.

Link to Road Travel Info for North Carolina.

Basically reads "Just don't!!"

https://tims.ncdot.gov/tims/

So not going to give you advisory information today or discussion from the NHC. I'm going to tell you about Florence from my perspective as I live here in Raleigh, safe from flooding and my power is blessedly on and I'm feeling #CarolinaStrong today. Grateful we are okay, sad people have died and mesmerized by the plight of people in flooded towns and in awe of the people who are helping rescue and evacuate people as I write this blog this Sunday morning.

When driving home to North Carolina from what used to be home in Florida you hit this moment when you finally leave I-95 and turn onto I-40 and you feel almost there.. almost home, almost back in the Triangle. When you get to the I-440 you KNOW you hang a right and you made it back home. You see to get to Raleigh you have to get off of I-95 and hang a left at I-40 and it's there you say fairwell to I-95 and hello to the Piedmont as the land begins to rise and things begin to change. I-95 is the dividing line for culture, for the type of BBQ sauce you use in the Carolinas and that stretch of the highway is often flooded when a hurricane comes through the part of the North State known as Down East. The Carolinas are divided at that fork in the road as "East of 95" and "West of 95" more than the actual state boundaries that run from West to East. Today that stretch of road is closed. Here's a map of I-40 and you can see how vital an artery it is to the people of North Carolina.

I-40 is the road we take in Raleigh to get down to Wilmington and the beach beyond at Wrightsville. I-40 is the road we take to drive West to the mountains to see the beauty of Asheville. And for those traveling through to Tennessee they take I-40 straight into Knoxville as they drive across the mountains marveling at Mother Nature's beauty. It is filled with small towns along the way where people live and and work. In Raleigh we travel I-40 on the weekend for dinner in Greensboro or down in Wilmington to eat somewhere at Riverwalk and watch the sun set over the Cape Fear River before heading back on I-40 to life in Raleigh in the middle of the state.  I-95 may be one of the nation's major arteries but understand that I-40 is our vein.. it's our backbone in North Carolina. It's a little bit crooked as it hangs a right down past Raleigh and runs SW down to the beaches but it's how we get where we are going.

Drone footage. New Bern.

You do have to get off of I-40 to go to New Bern.

It's a trip worth taking.

But it will be a while before that happens...

Today in North Carolina few people are going anywhere unless they are reporters, a First Responder or a volunteer helping out somewhere. In Raleigh it's raining and we are watching Crabtree Creek hoping it doesn't rise much more. In Charlotte they are beginning to deal with flooding and power outages. Down East there are new lakes everywhere covering whole towns, roads to those towns and bridges that were taken out by moving water. This does happen once in a while in North Carolina but people here are strong, they help each other and life goes on as we begin to move towards Autumn and the cleanup that will continue on and on from Florence. It's a beautiful state on so many levels, truly from the beaches and the marsh land down by the coast to where it gently rises in the Piedmont and all the way up into the mountains.

Mother Nature is kind to us with the seasons that are longer in the Spring and Fall than most places and a short winter usually. If we are lucky we get a taste of winter and get to see snow falling more than once or twice, but on rare occasions you have to take the rain along with the sunshine. We will have had our share or rain this week and I'm looking forward to Wednesday when the sun is forecast to come out again in Raleigh but I'll believe it when I see it.

http://origin.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/allfcsts_loop_ndfd.gif a link if the loop don't work..

Where does Florence go next? Well that's a question you don't really wanna be asking. In theory she feels the pull of a dipping frontal boundary, pulls North over Western North Carolina and heads up towards the Northeast. There are some odd models that show her bouncing back with a harder right trying to get back to the ocean that she loves and possibly spinning up again, but I'll spare you all those images just yet until the next model run comes out. Suffice it to say it is possible there could be some strange things happening, but we can hope the frontal boundary dives more than dips and grabs Florence and takes her away.

Another link for the 7 day if you want to look out that far...

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/day0-7loop.html

As for Isaac... keep watching.
Just in case.

Ouch those models climb in intensity.

As for Helene and Joyce...

..not our problem.

Those images are from Spaghetti Models.

www.spaghettimodels.com

A look at Mike's always wonderful Spaghetti Models gives you all the links you need to follow the rising water, tropics and general weather information you need to know. Note the cone of Flo has bent a bit more to the East than it was before when they took it up into Ottawa. Always watch the trend in the cone. I'll write more on this later if I feel the need to make you worry unnecessarily about what could spin up close in from leftover moisture in Florence's tail. The models are on the top left of his page, if you feel the need feel free to go ahead and click on those models but don't say I didn't warn ya!

https://www.facebook.com/mikesweatherpage/

Anyone who has a problem with Mike is just jealous or got up on the wrong side of their bed way too often and needs an attitude readjustment. He is as we say Down South "good people" "good folk" ... a good guy. Mike is how we roll during the Hurricane Season or any season as he covers more than just the tropics. He drove his daughters (and his wife) up to North Florida to see snow falling last year from Tampa, he is that sort of father that any child would want to have....  he deserves an award.

Many people deserve an award from the NWS offices in every city along the way to the NHC but  especially in Wilmington where they spent the night posting Tornado Warnings for the area as Florence refuses to let up and leave the area. If you don't believe me check out their Twitter Feed. They are like what the Postal Service used to be, they never rest, they never sleep.

https://twitter.com/NWSWilmingtonNC

So what next? The rains from Florence will move West and with that long awaited movement we may be taking the drama of Florence up into the mountains where orographic lift can cause even more misery up in mountain communities. I know you learned about that in school but it was a long time ago so here's a quick lesson in why we are so worried about what may come next. Basically it means that because of the terrain you can get more rain and snow out of a weather system than you might otherwise elsewhere.

Hoping and praying we don't have worst problems...

..down that tropical road.

Again leaving you this link below.

https://www.ourstate.com/the-deluge-of-1940/

Warning --- it's not for the faint of heart.

It's a detailed, well written article...

..about the harrowing details of a tragic flood.

Inland flooding. 1940.

After a hurricane got up into the mountains of NC.

Note that flood moved on to other places as well.

Weather happens.

History does repeat.

Each storm is different.

Floods happen.

Praying we don't see this happen.

Praying Flo decides she has had enough off the Carolinas.

Yeah we be down there under that dark red.

Florence's signature ...

...she came from Africa.

Across the ocean...

..and she doesn't wanna leave.

I'll leave y'all with this last piece of advice.

From the source that has worked round the clock.

Turn around, don't drown.

Stay home, read a book, bake something.

Call Uncle Joe.

The sun will come out Wednesday.

Lord have mercy have some patience.

Don't become a part of the problem.

Or God forbid a statistic.

Just wait it out...

Soon the State Fair will be here...

..leaves will begin to turn.

Starbucks has Pumpkin Spice Latte!

Good drink for a dark day like today.

I'll update as needed later on today.

My husband came home just now from morning services at the Temple with this piece of news. He heard "I-40 is closed all the way down to Wilmington and I-95 is out!" Yep, that's the news people are waking up to this morning in North Carolina. As for me I'm going to go offline, make some eggs and fake bacon cause I'm Kosher and yes that's a thing and have another cup of coffee. This hurricane has really been a watershed moment for me in time when I became more of a Carolinian than a Floridian, though I'm still holding onto those bragging rights as well. A few weeks before the hurricane the Miami Dolphins played my Carolina Panthers and I found myself yelling when we were pounding the Fins. For my friends back in Miami ..."sorry bout that" and I'll root for the Dolphins against any team except the Carolina Panthers #Keeppounding. Oh and I'll be watching the game later today when the Panthers play.

Everyone stay safe and honestly I have to tell you the Hurricane Season is NOT over. There should be a break in action for the next week or so as a huge pulse of Saharan Dust came off of Africa (yes they have an unlimited supply of that stuff) and Florence left a cool trail in the water along the coast off the Carolinas. There is a strong possibility of another large hurricane forming and affecting the East Coast and something possibly in the Gulf of Mexico before this hurricane season is in the books. Sorry but that's just life. After October or at the end of October it should be over and we are still sitting in prime time September with days to go before we don't have to worry on the tropics. But with every day we get that much closer to a cold front making it down past Virginia and dreams of snow falling from the sky. It's a ways off but we get there day by day. 

Look at SAL in September.

Go figure.

For the next week or so we watch the Gulf of Mexico for the slim possibility of something happening. Subtropical regions are keeping the forecasters busy this season as 2 other Tropical Storms are staying safely away from the East Coast. And, they are still busy with Florence.

Keep watching.

Hang in there.

I'll update later today at some point.

Maybe after 5 PM... 

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter.

Ps... The name Florence WILL be retired from the Hurricane List.

We may see fire and we may see rain...

...but we won't see this name again.

If you want to go to Carolina today...

do it in your mind.

The roads will open again.
And we will be back in business.

#CarolinaStrong

Snow Day in Raleigh & Much of the East Coast

It's really so beautiful. The snow is just falling steady and I was so ready for it. A little over two weeks ago I looked at several long term forecasts as well as various loops and long range models and decided to go to Miami to see my new granddaughter from January 10th through the 16th. I chose those dates because airfare was crazy cheap during an "End of the Year Sale" on Southwest ($63 one way RDU to FLL) and because I figured I could go to Florida and enjoy some warm weather during the January Thaw. I could get back in time for the possible snow event in Raleigh and basically I nailed it. Kind of proud of myself as forecasting a snow event in Raleigh is close to impossible. When I moved here reading the forecast discussion in the winter was like cutting my teeth while trying to eat glass. It was a whole new weather lingo and trying to understand Miller A and Miller B storms along with warm nose problems makes a tropical weather person feel dizzy. But...over time... I got it down and now the snow is coming down. Years ago online I predicted where Hurricane Charley would most likely make landfall when the NHC was extremely iffy as the projected track paralleled the coastline. I'm more excited about nailing this forecast than that one.... go figure.

You can't control everything in life. Try controlling a two year old baby or a teenager. You can't always control your health or wealth or lack of ... You can't control the weather but you can try and work with the models and be where you want to be when a hurricane makes landfall or heavy rain falls from the ground. Harder to catch a falling star or the Northern Lights or that proverbial green flash as the sun sets into the water. You can control how you react and respond usually. I was in the market this morning picking up a few things fast and when it began to snow children started screaming and most of the people who moved to Raleigh from Pittsburgh began to grit their teeth and bitch. I'm from Miami, the local news is on nonstop and there is no Cat 3 on it's way nor is a storm surge headed towards downtown. Just a rare snow event in Raleigh; last time it snowed heavy was 3 years ago in this particular neck of the woods.

If you think it's intense in Virginia...

...check out those reds in Canada!

So let's get to the weather. This Winter Storm #Inga has left it's mark over a wide area from Texas and Louisiana to Raleigh and up the coast all the way to the NY NJ metro area. There are watches and warnings everywhere. Hopefully it will be a fast mover and move out just as fast. However there is a Low developing over the Carolinas that will give it that extra push that will amp up it's long term snow totals and wicked, winter weather. To quote Jimmy Buffett we are "all in it" and there's snow to the left and snow to the right and pretty much everywhere we are dealing with the Winter of 2017 - 2018. Tomorrow that blue will cover more areas and there may be some expanding lilac.

In North Carolina they dumped over 2 million gallons of brine on the roadways. We try to do everything in Raleigh these days to avoid the national spotlight of the snowmaggedon pictures of stranded tourists with photo shopped monsters standing on a very steep hilltop that iced over immediately as soon as the snow began to fall. Today the snow projections are on the rise with every new model run. If the models are right (GFS and EURO pretty close) five inches would be on the low side. But for now those are the official snow total projections below. If anything they will be upgraded to higher totals.

Allan Huffman always excellent.

NWS Raleigh

NWS NY

And everything in between is seeing snow.

Not a good time to be on I95 traveling.

Tomorrow will be better...

Miami was wonderful and today I'm in a Winter Wonderland in Raleigh. This recent trip was intense as I spent time with two sweet older women and two sweet babies. Kind of puts life into perspective when you hold a baby that weighs about 5 to 6 pounds and then you take your 85 year old mother to get a new pair of glasses and sit for hours with your husband's 97 year old Great Aunt. I'm not sure that my Granddaughter Olivia knew who I was but she's learning. I know my mother-in-law forgets who I am and God Bless the sweet 97 year old who is smart and quick like a whip.Life is short, it's like a fast moving river. Enjoy the moment, savor the moment and share those moments with others. That's what I try to do here on the blog. Sharing... 

One minute you are 3 weeks old...

In the blink of an eye...

..you're getting new glasses.

Or happy that someone came to visit you.

Or just happy to see the snow falling.

As always go to http://www.nhc.noaa.gov for official info and to www.spaghettimodels.com for tons of info, models and satellite imagery. Make sure your smart phones are properly enabled for weather warnings.

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter

Southern Snow? Florida Snow? Winter Weather .. Low Forms.... Moves UP the Coast. Reinforcing the COLD COLD Start to 2018. Beat Goes On...

I have a few things to say about the possibility of snow in Florida. The first is it is possible and on rare occasions it does happen. The radar above shows blue near Jacksonville though I haven't heard yet of any actual reports of seeing flakes falling from the air. Secondly, this area will turn into a Winter Low Pressure system that is forecast to cause a coastal snow event in the South and make a run on the NE coast later in the same time period. Good to know that the models that argue during the Hurricane Season are just as argumentative this record breaking winter.

http://www.wftv.com/weather/rain-possibly-snow-in-central-florida/673366489

You can take this forecast up with the above referenced news station. Add into the mix the question of could it... would it snow in Tampa? As Tampa seems to dodge every hurricane out there you'd think it will continue dodging winter weather as well. 

http://www.wtsp.com/weather/snow-in-tampa-its-possible-say-meteorologists/503116532

Note another recent record was broken from the year 1989 so that's one of the records to beat when it comes to winter weather.

So is Snow possible in Florida?

Mike lays it out on his Facebook Page.

The Maps show it IS cold enough.

Freeze Frost Line goes into North Florida.

Again this is NOT Tropical.

Just saying it again.

Note diving cold Arctic Air.

Strong supply of moisture.

Where they clash..

A Low will set up.

It bobbles about South Florida.

Then takes off towards the Carolinas.

Where exactly it goes....

Anyone's guess.

The coast has a higher chance of seeing snow.

Winter Weather.

Models arguing....

Sound familiar?

Then.... BAMB!

That's one heck of a strong pressure gradient.

And the cold flows South.

Now come on...

Doesn't this seem like the past Hurricane Season.

Here we go again...

Which model do we trust?

Epic storms.

Epic cold.

I'm wearing socks under my booties ... 

It's cold. Very cold.

And I live "Down South"

Just remember.... it could be worse as we could be dealing with a remake of the last Hurricane Season. Well, maybe we will as the so far the run of record breaking weather has not settled down and the January Thaw seems a long ways away.

https://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/madagascar-on-alert-for-budding-tropical-cyclone-this-week/70003714

Always something tropical going on somewhere in the world.

It may be hard to believe while we watch a Low forming off the coast of Florida that is forecast to reinforce this bitter cold spell another week longer!

Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter - Follow me for real time discussion.

Ps.... Note the models have about as much in common as Sonny and Cher... and the beat goes on.
Happy 2018!