Tropical Rain from Bonnie on East Coast and Texas Storms. Next week possible tropical formation again. Enjoy the Day!
The big story for the next day or two is the heavy rains that will be falling along the East Coast beaches and coastal towns.....and Texas. Texas will be getting huge amounts of rain. I put the word Texas together there twice as it bears repeating. On the East coast we are getting "tropical rain" and I say that because that is what they said last night on the local radio station in Brooklyn. Tropical rain moving in our way from the remnants of Bonnie. Or perhaps we could call it the weather area associated with the remnants of Bonnie. But it did rain heavy last night in Crown Heights. It might still be raining, but I'm in the basement looking at loops of the Caribbean not local radar loops. Go figure huh? Okay I just checked the radar loops. Yes...there is tropical rain. And that is mainly the legacy of Tropical Storm Bonnie. Rain and rip tides along the beaches... off and on over the Memorial Day holiday.
In most places it won't be enough to keep people away from the beaches.
Out of the water maybe but sun tanning, BBQ and play time is fine.
Ed Piotrowski says it all with pictures on Twitter.
Look at that sunrise 3 hours ago in North Myrtle Beach? Wow.
So there's a little tropical rain...
There may be a system forming this week...
Think very long term.
Think long shot.
I'll say currently when that many models agree.. it's worth watching.
Above he says the CMC is on drugs and many agree.
You read a lot of funny things on Mike's Weather Page on Facebook.
People from all walks of life....
From weather lovers to professional weather people.
He hit a big milestone this weekend.
He has 65,000 fans.
Let me put it this way.
Mike from TWC has only a few more.
Not that we are competing just saying...
So I decided to highlight a post from his Facebook to show the model.
It's possible and not all that improbable.
How strong of a system is the question?
Stronger than Bonnie?
Look at the water temperatures in the GOM.
Then subtract points for possible shear.
The answer is keep watching.
From the Caribbean up through the Yucatan and into GOM...
70% Bonnie For now models lock on Charleston then ...depends on Bonnie
Remember the old days when I used to write without graphics? I'm on vacation with many commitments as its a working vacation. I'm speaking in NYC and in theory the Hurricane Season doesn't begin til June 1st... Oh well on that theory. Isn't Mother Nature fun... She decides when the hurricane season begins unlike say NFL football season. No surprises there. Lots of surprises always with the Hurricane Season.
Surprisingly I woke up this morning to find out both the GFS and the EURO agree with my early all on Charleston. I have felt that was a more realistic landfall point than many I read others say. That said... Until this Low wraps, comes together (insert song cue) gels...all bets are off on the exact evolution ... Exact landfall... Exact end game.
Yes the NHC has upped the odds to 70 percent for the 5 day but beyond that much is up for grabs.
For example the models that are all over Spaghetti Models online show possibilities of Bonnie going far inland..and/or bouncing back towards the ocean staying with us for quite a while. The devil is in the details. Those are the details the NHC can't show in a red alert graphic nor can we see in our meteorological crystal balls.... Until Bonnie forms.
This morning you can see a slow coming together more like a collision of factors that will create spin and lift off.
As always timing is everything with tropical systems especially as it relates to long term track options.
Yes its Memorial Day Weekend and this may take a bite out of the holiday economics of small beach towns hoping to start $ummer off with a bang. Money flows like weather. People will go inland up to the mountains (Carolinas have so many options) or go to the movies are mall. Small great beach towns like Ocean Isles Beach may get the short end of the proverbial stick.
But some models show Bonnie going well inland towards said mountains while others show it cruising up the Interstate.
www.spaghettimodels.com has ALL the models that's where the name came from... Duh :)
Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to go in Friday.
Lastly think on this..
As this system presumably Bonnie finally gets a center and moves towards low shear and high water temperatures over the Gulfstream it will spun up FAST as these home grown coastal lows do. Sometimes they meet expectations and sometimes they exceed them.
the Wonderful Weather Wizards of Oz I mean the NHC will speak again later tho afternoon. Til then enjoy the day and the loops.
I'll update when there's are more details !!
Below is the discussion from the NHC.
@bobbistorm on Twitter
Ps again thanks for your patience with any grammatical errors..
"With the Memorial Day weekend
approaching, all interests along the southeast coast from Georgia
through North Carolina should monitor the progress of this low. An
Air Force reconnaissance plane will be scheduled to investigate
this low on Friday. The next Special Tropical Weather Outlook on
this disturbance will be issued by 3 PM EDT today. For additional
information on this system, see High Seas Forecasts issued by the
National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent"
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 815 AM EDT WED MAY 25 2016
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
1. An area of cloudiness and showers over the western Atlantic Ocean northeast of the Bahamas is associated with the interaction of an upper-level trough and a weakening front. While development is not anticipated for the next couple of days, environmental conditions are expected to become more conducive for tropical or subtropical development on Friday. This area of disturbed weather is forecast to move slowly west-northwestward or northwestward and gradually approach the southeastern United States over the weekend. The next Special Tropical Weather Outlook will be issued by 8 PM EDT tonight. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent
BobbiStorm's bottom line.
Not much has changed. Same logic.
some shear, water temperature not that warm yet..but will get warmer as it moves closer to the Gulfstream.
Say you have a lunch date. They took the ferry and are on the subway. They will get here but for now your are waiting.
Order a diet coke...they are on their way.
So is this coastal low that might be Bonnie.
apologies for any grammatical mistakes.
sitting in a deli waiting for a friend ;) and watching loops.
Ps...NY values...hmmn..they won't take my order til the rest of my party arrives. Hmm who knew? What am I chopped liver??
30% chance of Bonnie forming off SE coast as per NHC
000 ABPZ20 KNHC 241732 TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1100 AM PDT TUE MAY 24 2016
For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.
$$ Forecaster Blake
models have been extremely consistent in developing either a tropical or subtropical system. If named it would be Bonnie.
my logic from this morning is the same... North of Savannah..south of Wilmington most likely. Need a floater, an invest...next model runs important.
I'm in transit so this is a short heads up post.
please read my previous analysis for what most likely will happen.
Location: Miami, Raleigh, Crown Heights, Florida, United States
Weather Historian. Studied meteorology and geography at FIU. Been quoted in Wall Street Journal, Washington Post & everywhere else... Lecturer, stormchaser, writer, dancer. If it's tropical it's topical ... covering the weather & musing on life. Follow me on Twitter @ https://twitter.com/#!/BobbiStorm