Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Tuesday, November 26, 2019

Thanksgiving Weekend.... Stormy in Parts of the Country... Quiet in Other Areas.


allfcsts_loop_ndfd.gif (799×559)

Going to make this short and sweet.
Not as sweet as pecan or pumpkin pie.
But a good granola bar.
Filled with info to keep you going.
Until I post from Miami.

Yes...on the road for Thanksgiving!
Most of the family lives there.
And there's a birthday party ...
...so going to be on the road.
I95 travel in the SE today is way better.
Than out West.
This updates in real time.

As far as the tropics go...
...there isn't much to talk about.
I could wax poetic on the low riding wave.
Made it across the Atlantic.
Going to maybe skirt the coast of South America?
Or try and enter the Caribbean.

hiatlsat_None_anim.gif (768×496)

I just had to point it out.

And the tail end of any dangling front...


Beyond showing this official image.
I'm not going to discuss that.

So everyone have a wonderful Thanksgiving.
I hope you have someone to spend it with..
..unless you prefer your company to family.
You never know.
Great movie.
Charles Durning.
Kind of nailed my family...

But my mother didn't like to cook turkey.
It was an issue. Every year.
Except when small we went to my Aunt.
But the dynamics remind me of family meals.


Really....
You should have seen the speech.
My father gave at my brother's Bar Mitzvah.
Oh my gosh...

And one of my father's favorite songs.
Probably cause he was always on the road.
Working in Miami... 


The road meant a gas station.
A snack at the gas station.
And no one telling him what he had to do .....
...I suppose ;)

Have a great holiday weekend.
Watch your best sources for winter weather.

www.spaghettimodels.com
Covers it all for you..

Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram.

Ps.. can't wait for a real cafecito.
And guava pastelito.
And Pumpkin Pie.


Maybe a drink at Margaritaville ..

posted by BobbiStorm @ 5:03 AM 0 comments

Friday, November 22, 2019

Sebastien Not Gonna Be a Hurricane... Joined Up with the Frontal Boundary... Flowing Free Part of the Atmosphere. November Rain and a Look Back at Someone I Loved.



Quick blog today.
Not much to say.
The front has grabbed Sebastien.
Nothing last forever.....
... especially November storms.

Hard to hold a candle....
...to the cold November Rain.
Or the November Shear...

Last night's 11 PM NHC Discussion below.
Told the story well...


Last night an excellent discussion was written.
A true look into Sebastien true future.
The ghost of being a hurricane...
...was gone.
Poof. 
In the November wind.



So here is our November storm now.
On the move finally.
Note below the image shows the truth.
The "center" is still displaced from the convection..
..and the convection joined the frontal party finally.


Displaced but still strong...
Still has a name.
But NHC pulled back a bit.
As I thought they would.
Shear has been strong all along!


Gotta love these NHC headlines lately.

From far away.... you can barely find it.
Lost in the flow of the atmosphere.


That energy will flow elsewhere.
Everything that happens...
...has a reaction.
Stay tuned.

Close up.
Oh look... it has a friend nearby.
Hmnnnn



So have a wonderful November weekend.
Diet to look good at the Thanksgiving feast...
...or shop til you drop for clothes and presents.
Decorate your house for... 
...whatever you feel it needs to be decorated for.
As seasons collide.
Generally I love this time of year.
I can walk around a mall staring at holiday cheer.
People smiling, happier than usual.
Friendly.)

Do what you love.
Love what you do!

Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram.

Ps... an intense wild song for our departing storm.
Nothing last forever.
So true.


Beautifully morbid song... 
visually intense.
But true.

I had a close friend pass away on November 22nd.
No..not JFK... 
...but someone who died way too soon.

I knew a man ... he danced.
He did theater, karate, Shakespeare Festivals.
He danced through life on a high wire.
Moving fast though ... 
Rollerbladed home the day before he died.
He was sick but he wouldn't let you see it.
One of my best friends.
One of my favorite people.
His place in my life was golden.
Like the leaves on the maple tree.
Turning red, orange and gold.
Quivering today in the November wind.
As the tall green Carolina Pines behind it...
.. float back and forth like green feathers.
Against a white gauzy gray sky.
A November sky...
....promising November rain.

Memories... 
I'd rather have him here but........
...the memories make me smile.


posted by BobbiStorm @ 6:47 AM 0 comments

Thursday, November 21, 2019

Sebastien.... NHC Forecasts Smooth, Naked Sebastien to Become a Hurricane.



Okay at least we can see our TS from outer space.

Up close it's really attaching to that rope...
...that's gonna pull it up, up and away





Gotta be honest I think it looked better last night.
But it's a strong Tropical Storm.
Forecast to be a hurricane by the NHC.



Official graphics ...
...showing from www.spaghettimodels.com



Almost looks like it wants to tell us something...
...maybe Santa's on his way?


A Santana song is now stuck in my mind.

hiatlsat_None_anim.gif (768×496)



That's not a yellow butterfly.
It's the wind history of Sebastien.



I'd agree with Josh on this...
...paint dries faster.




It may become a hurricane.
It is a tropical storm.
As Jim Williams said on Twitter...
originated in the tropics.

www.hurricanecity.com

As for me more into shopping for Chanukah.
Debating getting myself an inexpensive present.
But I probably have these purple shades here.


Kind of like me...
Witty, easy going, genuine...
..wise and kind of chilled today.

Watching hearings.

Debating on buying this book.



https://www.amazon.com/Siberian-Curse-Communist-Planners-Russia/dp/0815736452

Debating on what to make for dinner.
Maybe go out... shop for Shabbos.
Sushi? Nah....

Got time to think on it.
By then... 
Sebastien could be a hurricane.

Yeah... this is happening.

I'll update later.
Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram.
Mostly weather on Twitter.
Some weather,  make up and "life" on Instagram.


Smooth....
...get it the eye shadow shade..

My mind is an amazing thing... but warped ;)
Reason for reason....
the step in my groove...
Great song...
..gonna dance.
How can ya not dance when you hear Santana?
Do you dance at home when alone?
I do.
Great video... so smooth..




Labels: , , , , , , , , , ,

posted by BobbiStorm @ 9:47 AM 0 comments

Wednesday, November 20, 2019

Updated 11 PM NHC Now Forecasts Sebastien to be a Hurricane. .




Forecast to become a hurricane.

Check that out... Sebastien
Wrapping up, intensifying.
Impressive.


hiatlsat_None_anim.gif (768×496)

Have to see what the morning will bring...
Hurricane Sebastien?

Keep reading if you did not do so...
I'll update in the morning.



Just wanted to point out that Sebastien is cooking.
Out performing as some models said it might.
Impressive ball of convection there.
Closer to the center too.


Gotta give Cranky thanks.
I was watching "the hearings"
Ignoring the tropics.
Oh my gosh.. I Know.

So I took a look.
Wow.





What if an eye popped out.
Just thinking out loud.
NHC might have to reconsider the situation.





May update at 11 if NHC upgrades.
But watching hearings.
Then the debates.
My dance card is filled tonight.
Peeking at Sebastian some too!

;)


Video with my thoughts on Sebastien.
Bit of a drama going on...
Sure somewhere met students are placing bets.
Hurricane? No Hurricane.




11 AM Sebastien Update.

And a bonus, beautiful long loop.
Of our most recent No Name Coastal Low.
The road trip it took from the Gulf of Mexico..
..into the Atlantic.



Awesome Loop.

Earlier discussion from NHC
Left the door open for intensification.
The door is still left over for further intensification.

5 AM Info below

Good Tweet online.
Visual, track, intensity.


Using this graphic to show where it is....
...because it's closer to our world than it seems.
Convection Still displaced from Center.
Center close than Convection.



Chick's tweet says it all.
Compare the naked center above with below.
This is why we use so many different presentations.
Visible shows the core...
IR makes it look hot and heavy.


Note the presence of COLD Clouds to the NW.
It's going to catch that frontal boundary.
Zoom away.
But questions remain on intensity.
Structurally it may change and ...
..some models show it reaching hurricane strength.
The NHC is aware of them but keeping it conservative.
This could change at 11 AM on their next advisory.



So if anything remarkable happens.
I will update.
It is what it is... a November system.

hiatlsat_None_anim.gif (768×496)

Looks kind of "cute" on the loop above.
Low level wave to the SE worth noting.
Just because.... it's there.




Going to ignore Sebastien today.
And possibly the hearings for a while.
Trying to figure somethings out.
Everything good.
Sun is shining today in Raleigh.
Bright lights on the golden trees...
...shining against a deep blue sky.

I'd say it doesn't get better than this but..
plenty of weather I like better.
Especially snow....
... or at the beach with a hurricane coming in.

It's just who I am.

Sweet Tropical Dreams,
BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram.

Ps... Yeah the Hurricane Season is slowly ending.
Officially probably did but hey Sebastien.
Could Tanya form in some tricky way?
Who knows...
...today I gotta get out and breathe.
Just breathe.


posted by BobbiStorm @ 5:24 AM 0 comments

Tuesday, November 19, 2019

Sebastien Forms From Invest 90L... Center Close to Convection. Quiet Tropical Drama in the Atlantic




We now have Sebastien.
Tropical Storm Sebastien.
I like Mike's announcement better ...





Discussion above explains a bit of the drama..
..and the dynamics behind Sebastien.
As it may go "baroclinic" it may transform.
Size, shape... Google it. Baroclinic.
Common for these sort of storms.
Currently battling shear still.
Center more naked than not.
But enough clothes for prime time.
So hello Sebastien!
Welcome to the 2019 Hurricane Season!!


Going up, up and away...


Please keep reading.
Written about an hour before the upgrade.
Explains why they upgraded.
And where it's going.
Thanks :)

Keep reading... written around 10 AM.
Before the expected upgrade to TS status.

Thanks @yconsor on Twitter
 for the reminder to check out that loop.
Like seeing an old friend.
Good loop.
So many loops....
...the struggle is real.





Basically waiting on upgrade to Sebastian.
At least a TD I'd think.....
...this season has been hard to figure.
But the NHC has raised it to 80%
It has a narrow window to develop.
Convection way closer to the center.


Early morning discussion below from NHC




Up, Up and Away as the song goes.
As the loop and video above show.

Watching the hearings.
One of my degrees is in International Relations.
Emphasis to Russian Studies.
I specialized in patterns and linkage.
So it's interesting.
90L/Sebastien less interesting.
But it's a matter of history...
..especially when it gets a name.

At some point Phil Klotzbach will reference it.
Some November with a similar set up.
A similar pattern and link it in his discussion.

Oh look... and he did.
Wrote that at 10 AM
Phil tweeted this at 11 AM.



See? I'm very good at forecasting ...


Have a wonderful day!
Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram.


Labels: , , , , , , , , ,

posted by BobbiStorm @ 7:15 AM 0 comments

Monday, November 18, 2019

Updated 60% Invest 90L in the Atlantic with a Chance to Become Sebastien or a TD .. We'll See. November in the Tropics...


November 18, 2019

It's beginning to feel like we are watching paint dry.

NHC hangs in there with 90L

First song that came to mind.......


Sweet Tropical Dreams...
...if you haven't read earlier.
Please keep reading.




Close up...


Woke up and couldn't get back to sleep.
Gave up and checked the first morning visible.
Now Invest 90L
Brewed some Nespresso.
Voila... a bit of a spin.



Everyone's wishing on snow...
...or just cool weather in South Florida.
And Mother Nature throws us a curve ball!


Beautiful filter but shows the displacement...
...of the center.
But it does have a spin going on.




Anyone going to Google that?
Fandango Dancer.


See...colorful, swirly, dancing in the Atlantic.
In late November.


Still pretty low.
Could this go truly tropical?
Short window it has.... 
...time will tell.

But what starts in the tropics...
Ain't staying in the tropics.


Drawn North chasing after the last system.
The No Name Coastal Low...
...that's moving up into the N Atlantic.

90L_geps_latest.png (800×800)

I will obviously update later today.
When the NHC weighs in...

Have a most beautiful day!
Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram.

Ps...Note the convection needs to swirl around..
...to it's center.

Fandango.
It's a beautiful dance.
Google it... 


















posted by BobbiStorm @ 4:11 AM 0 comments

Sunday, November 17, 2019

Updated! NHC Ups Yellow Circle to 50% Orange Circle in the Atlantic......As the Coastal Storm Begins to Move Up the Coast.. Getting Ready to Lift North Along the Coast ...




Odds now up to 50% in the 5 day.
40% in the 2 day.
NHC really fast tracking this system.
When they like something it's apparent.


Has more "there there" tonight.
Also being sheared, not in the best environment.
Not closed off as shown by the image below.


But getting there.
Where's it going?
Models show it following the leader.
As I pointed out this morning.
This is a few days from now.
Models show various variations.




So yes the Carolina Panthers lost.
Our storm slowly began moving away.
The Yellow circle became an Orange Circle...
...as the NHC seems to really like it.

Sebastien is the next name on the list.



This loop shows when a system begins to spin.
It shows MANY things....
...but it's a great predictive tool.

Took a nice drive up into the country a bit.
The Falls River Recreation Area.
That means the dam...
...by the river where they made a lake.
Too cold up on the path by the lake.
Sat down by river shoots out from the dam.
Hasn't been much color this year.
And what color we had pretty much blew away...
...in the last two storms.



Pretty tho... always.
And on the way near the house...
Street near where I live.
Usually more color in mid November.
Lots of trees whose leaves have blown away.



***


Morning Visible.
Eye like center there.
Briefly there... but beautiful.
Gotta enjoy what you got when you got it!



Yeah there's a 30% chance according to NHC..
...of something to it's SE forming.
But we can talk on that tomorrow...
...if it's still there.
Who can ignore this beautiful spinner?


Look how picture perfect our no name storm is...
.... and Monday it's your storm up the coast.
Because what starts on the Carolina coast...
..doesn't stay here this time of year.
As we dance our way into Winter.


From the Capes of the Carolinas...
...to the tip of Long Island.

Wind advisories all the way up the coast.





Watch the sea foam on the beach...
...gosh I love that.
And the erosion doesn't show well on the video.
Beaches been eroded for a while.
Only getting worse.
Winter storms after tropical systems.
Barrier island beaches ...
...always rearrange with the storms.

Listening to meteorologists online and on air talk today makes my heart beat faster for football on a Sunday afternoon with a quasi storm stronger than many of our named tropical storms this past summer. Transference of energy.... handing off as the system waits for the strong winter storm to throw a long pass and for the coastal low to pick up yardage and go all the way up the East coast impacting other much loved beaches on the way.... the same way it played with our beaches down here in the Carolinas.


Online energy is wonderful.
Always funny stuff here from him.



Images, videos, discussion.


And as always detailed explanations.

"And tomorrow for New England"

Check that out... this thing will take off soon!

And always there's some cruise ship drama...




Truly Annapolis is beautiful.
I like New Bern better to be honest.
But well... food, beverages.. 
it's a vacation right.




Love it really.
Weather, earth, science, history.
Music, dancing......

A bit of weather history today here.

Good article in the Wall Street Journal on Project Storm Fury; leaves out a lot about it's earlier days and I could say much but will leave for another day. Love the use of the word "seriously" here as controlling the weather is the stuff dreams are made of ....    And nations do it on a small scale all the time be it rain for crops or no rain on opening day ceremonies at the Olympics. But controlling big hurricanes as romantically heroic as it sounds pales in comparison to the every day enhancing rainfall for crops to grow in their season. A good read on some history, sort of a primer and well worth your time.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/when-the-u-s-tried-to-control-hurricanes-11573880461

Going to leave you with a link to read.
If you want...when you want.
Or save it for another day.
May all your favorite teams win!
May you enjoy your favorite weather....
... and be surrounded with love, friends and life...

Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram.
Follow me on Twitter.... for real time updates.
Follow my friends.... 
.... you won't find anyone like them.






Labels: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

posted by BobbiStorm @ 5:28 AM 0 comments