Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Tuesday, November 19, 2019

Sebastien Forms From Invest 90L... Center Close to Convection. Quiet Tropical Drama in the Atlantic




We now have Sebastien.
Tropical Storm Sebastien.
I like Mike's announcement better ...





Discussion above explains a bit of the drama..
..and the dynamics behind Sebastien.
As it may go "baroclinic" it may transform.
Size, shape... Google it. Baroclinic.
Common for these sort of storms.
Currently battling shear still.
Center more naked than not.
But enough clothes for prime time.
So hello Sebastien!
Welcome to the 2019 Hurricane Season!!


Going up, up and away...


Please keep reading.
Written about an hour before the upgrade.
Explains why they upgraded.
And where it's going.
Thanks :)

Keep reading... written around 10 AM.
Before the expected upgrade to TS status.

Thanks @yconsor on Twitter
 for the reminder to check out that loop.
Like seeing an old friend.
Good loop.
So many loops....
...the struggle is real.





Basically waiting on upgrade to Sebastian.
At least a TD I'd think.....
...this season has been hard to figure.
But the NHC has raised it to 80%
It has a narrow window to develop.
Convection way closer to the center.


Early morning discussion below from NHC




Up, Up and Away as the song goes.
As the loop and video above show.

Watching the hearings.
One of my degrees is in International Relations.
Emphasis to Russian Studies.
I specialized in patterns and linkage.
So it's interesting.
90L/Sebastien less interesting.
But it's a matter of history...
..especially when it gets a name.

At some point Phil Klotzbach will reference it.
Some November with a similar set up.
A similar pattern and link it in his discussion.

Oh look... and he did.
Wrote that at 10 AM
Phil tweeted this at 11 AM.



See? I'm very good at forecasting ...


Have a wonderful day!
Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram.


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Wednesday, June 13, 2018

Tropics Wednesday. Invest 91L Not Doing Anything Yet. BOC Bound? Will Energy Transfer to the E Coast of Florida or Florida or Bahamas? Maybe. It's June.. .Watch & Wait. Euro Watching Florida Today? Hmnn Some Thoughts on Why We Shouldn't Live or Die By the Models Especially in June. Being Unique and Who We Are Online...


Tropics Today.




Watching the tropics in June to see if something will or won't develop isn't for the faint of heart. It's especially dangerous to live and die by the models as this time of year due to "feedback issues" the models often produce vigorous tropical storms just to lose them once people take the bait. Simply said the models in June are basically "click bait" and that's why I watch the satellite loops and other forecasting tools to see what I really think will happen rather than click on "you should see the so and so twins today" and spoiler alert clicking on those links never ends well.

That said I do look at the models, but only after carefully examining what exists and contemplating the shear maps, the water temperatures (that change daily sometimes) and low and high pressure patterns. I watch cold fronts that ooze Down South enough to wear jeans vs shorts on a cool June evening out in Raleigh. I watch hurricane history and use many grains of salt when dealing with anything down in the SW Carib that is forecast to develop in early June or late November.

MOST IMPORTANT TAKE AWAY HERE TO REMEMBER.
Never ever rely on or believe in ANY model until the area being investigated has a clear cut, verified center of circulation. And if there are multiple centers vying for control think twice on the model until that one center becomes the real thing. Only with good data from recon and a good starting point do you get a good end result. And, even then models change in real time as the storm itself senses new atmospheric steering currents and conditions that may alter the track or intensity of the storm that no model noticed. The next model run the model will adjust to the storm not the other way around!

To understand who I am and how I think it's worth understanding I studied dance at a young age and cannot stop myself from moving to the beat of a song I love. I studied meteorology in college as to how it relates to the larger political structure of the world as meteorology and it's boring uncle Climo has dictated time and again over and over why one country went to war with another country. Even in the ever changing world in which we live... weather affects everything. If you don't believe me follow Commodities for a while and you will see how weather can make or break fortunes.  So this blog post today is inspired by Ed Sheeran and Sting as we will keep on making the same mistakes as we follow the models refusing to be the leader vs the follower.



A case in point is the word "regardless" was used in official discussion and suddenly every weather person on air or online wove the word regardless into their forecast yesterday for the heavy rain fall Texas may receive regardless of a name or just a large mass of tropical rain moving into Texas. Yeah... how did that work for you all? Yes, with Harvey fresh in everyone's minds millions of people clicked on links wondering if Invest 91L would be the next Harvey like storm. Get a grip gang. And think for yourself a little bit and learn to wait and watch and see what will or won't develop especially this far out.


NHC above.
X marks the spot.
Below... close up map.
Ledge of Honduras.


I don't understand the rush by "pros" to be the first to post the first model run when the EURO follows the GFS and produces a possible storm and then just the way most divas the GFS suddenly leaves the scene of the crime leaving everyone upset and dismayed that the EURO made the same stupid mistake. Since the beginning of recorded history messy blobs of convection have sat down on the ledge of Honduras and shear blows off their convection to the central Caribbean and models dance about as if they are in dress rehearsal and meteorologists follow every frame that the models put out jumping to conclusions. Models do not TALK they infer, they imply and they often lie. If you are going to follow a meteorologist who talks on models make sure they really understand the nuances and are not just repeating the party line regardless of what may actually happen. Models are really not as simple as they look and not for the faint of heart. Always believe in models AFTER a true center has formed.



It's always good to be a leader rather than a follower. Find a few good mets who know how to lead vs follow and know what the heck they are doing vs following the pack. I've had more than a few people ask me how Mike became so big online and especially on Facebook where people wait to see him to do Facebook Live. The reason they do is that they have not been burned by him with bad information and he is the first one to say he could be wrong. He talks on the models, shows.... no teaches people how to use the models and then gives his own thoughts peppered with what the official line is while reminding people the NHC is the bottom line... even if he doesn't agree or see how it will play out. He is very honest and knowledgeable. Yet jealous long time on air types make fun of people like us who are popular online and seem dismayed that people actually enjoy reading a blog or going to a weather website run by someone who didn't get an online meteorology degree from MSU. We are who we are and we don't pretend to not be who we are and I believe people respect that honesty.

Great song...



I didn't write nonstop Tweets using the world "REGARDLESS" yesterday as I'm not going to wax poetic on a storm that hasn't even formed a center before warning people all across the coast of GOM that they need to worry on huge amounts of tropical rain just because everyone else is doing so. Yes, I will say that IF this forms we need to worry on the set up and explain why we watch weak tropical storms in June by using Tropical Storm Allison as a history lesson. We need to pay attention more to historical analogs and possibilities and less every new model run promising bigger and better cyclones then pretending it never showed a hurricane. And the NHC said 20% chances in the 5 day so why was everyone looking for development yesterday or today????

Another person who some mets like to make fun of is Dabuh who often sees what could be, may be and posts cryptic posts showing areas where something may develop way before the GFS or EURO show them. He doesn't pretend to be head of the NHC and he is very much who he is and not afraid to be himself. As a weather community online we are richer for his presence and participation.


Hmnn.....



Oh.....
Hmnn just one frame of the EURO.


Don't sell the farm ....
... just one frame.
But nothing in GOM..
And now it's watching Florida.
Okay...so we watch.
We watch, wait and go on with life
People ask how Dabuh does this?
Pulls tropical rabbits out of his hat?
Inquiring minds want to know...


Again it's important to be yourself. No one else can be you and everyone else can weave "regardless" into their own tropical discussions regardless of the fact that currently nothing is going on but everyone is talking about it so regardless of reality let's repeat what everyone else is saying. Ex Director of the NHC Bill Read was so right when he told me people must come from sheep not monkeys.  I do show models early on because people ask me about the models and because that's the name of the game in 2018. But I take those models with a lot of salt the way I take my margaritas.  If there is one thing Dabuh knows it is the East Coast of Florida as he lives there, surfs there and pays close attention to every sign of trouble or good waves.


So there's your model discussion for the day.

GFS shows nada.


I try to share info.
I try to educate on hurricane history.
I try to inform and amuse.
I do my thing.
You don't like my ending...
Make your own ending.
Great advice from an original.
Who makes a soap opera in a video?
The tropics are a soap opera.
The best show on earth.
Reality Show.
Mother Nature does the Tropics.
Stay tuned.

Again be an original!
Don't be a copycat.
Find your own stage.
Watch and learn.

GOES16-TAW-08-900x540.gif (900×540)

91L is not developing NOW..
 because of strong shear.
Diving ULL.
Shunting convection off... 
Watch it...
...but watch the Bahamas.
East Coast of Florida.
And any other area that bubbles up.
It's June this is how June works.




Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter
Join Twitter.
Follow me for faster updates.
Join in the discussion...
You want a long read?
Read Cranky I do... 
He's ALWAYS been an original!!

Ps......

Sting is who he is....
who he has always been.
Unique.
He's a leader not a follower.
Great lyrics.
Awesome stories.
I can relate.








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Friday, May 25, 2018

UPDATED! SUBTROPICAL STORM ALBERTO FORMS From Invest 90L- Trying to Reason With Hurricane Season on Memorial Day Weekend.


Subtropical Storm Alberto Has Formed.
Officially at 11 AM
NHC will issue advisories.
Closed circulation shown below.


Subtropical Storm Alberto will be officially on the maps as of 11 AM with cones and other relevant information. https://www.nhc.noaa.gov Refer to their site for all the official information. I'll update this blog early in the afternoon after the next model runs and hopefully after getting information from recon.  Note the morning visible of Alberto below.


Wider view below.

1000x1000.jpg (1000×1000)

Again this is a lop sided system.
Subtropical = oblong 
Currently the wxr is off to the right
NW to be exact.

Note the image below screen shot from Mike's Facebook Live where he showed possible points of landfall as per the models. Note the stronger colors to the right of the point of landfall. This may make landfall give or take around Mobile Bay, but the weather in the Florida Panhandle is going to be memorable on Memorial Day Weekend. If you can get some partying in tomorrow go for it as the weather will go downhill closer to Monday.


I'll be back with all the cones and whistles later.
Again refer to the NHC and Spaghetti Models.


I'm out and about shopping and doing things so I can be back here in a little while with updated information. For now they are now hoisting their flag early and it's a good call and it was time to do it. Let's see what Recon finds when they fly down into Alberto. 2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season has begun whether you are ready for it or not!

Feel free to keep reading as the information is still timely. We just officially have what was already being called Alberto by most of us. 

* * *

Holding at 90% over the next 2 days.
The 5 day has now become the 2 day.


Note that the winds are beginning to tighten up.
Stronger winds closer to strongest convection.


INVEST 90L (note I shaded that in the picture above in blue) is slowly setting sail leaving land behind. Once out over land the Hurricane Hunters will fly down and try to gather more information about Invest 90L to see what is really going on with it. That data they will gather will be added into the next few model runs and in theory... the models should get a better handle on where it's ultimate destination is in the end game. It's obvious it's North bound into the Gulf of Mexico but will it sail steadily North or will it hook a bit to the left as most models indicate it will? Is it possible it will loop or stall? That is a possibility too. When watching a deep, diving cold front it is easier to forecast how a storm will be influenced by it, but when you are watching a digging upper level feature that will clash with a developing subtropical or tropical system it's harder to analyze the battle going on between the two as the set up is fluid and not carved in stone. 

Again as I wrote yesterday, "Alberto" is like a pirate and often a pirate ship would hoist several different flags but whichever flag it was flying it was still a pirate. Invest 90L aka Alberto aka "huge gale system" is still an area of stormy weather with strong winds, high waves, much convection and it will bring with it high tides as well as beach and boating dangers. Flooding is a definite possibility as the area it is traveling towards has been inundated with rain for the last week or more depending on the particular area. You know the saying... "when it rains it pours" and that applies here. We don't name "huge Gale systems" so the NHC will probably upgrade it to "Subtropical Storm" and no not even TWC names Gale Systems.  Sorry it's going to wash out many people's Memorial Day Plans. Always good to have a Plan B or options. 

There is something about Memorial Day and Labor Day that brings out both the crazy people and tropical storms that threaten to throw a wet blanket on people hoping to party at the beach. Usually Memorial Day in Miami (for example) is a messy mix of Monsoon Weather and Weak Tropical Waves adding to the drama of the daily tropical down bursts and added tourists looking to party. Cities along the Gulf Coast are used to dealing with systems that are weak but a pain in the proverbial ass.  I feel bad for those losing money either on vacation deals they can't cancel and also the local beach vendors who are usually the back bone of America's Mom and Pop stores that service the beach goers. But it's not that uncommon and this is the time of year that if it's going to happen it will happen in this area. 

Today the beaches are beautiful and the weather tomorrow will be beautiful, but day by day the weather will degrade and people will be dealing with whatever Alberto becomes. Today is that day to try and figure out what you will do this weekend and early into next weekend if the moisture from what should be Alberto comes your way. Check out the movies and indoor events, binge on Netflix or make a Netflix Party with your friends and binge together. Shop for school supplies or hurricane supplies or finish your Spring Cleaning. Yes it is still officially Spring.

I will update the blog later today after the next model run and after recon goes in (which it will probably do unless they bail out and try again tomorrow morning) and update this blog with actual model data and deeper discussion. What I want to leave with you this morning is the slow, tenuous birth of what most likely will be Alberto is in the end stages, Mother Nature is cranky and really does not want to hear you ask one more time "so how are we doing? is today the day?" because she's tired but Alberto should appear over the next 2 days as we are at a 90% chance already for the next 24 chances. I'm not much of a gambler, but I'd take those odds.  Note the paragraph below and read it over a few times as it is the best advice anyone can give you. Check with your local authorities about the weather associated with Invest 90L aka "Alberto" and plan accordingly. Check with your local authorities often as these type of storms change often in development; multiple centers battle each other for control of the storm as well as the distant squalls far from the actual coordinates as "subtropical storms" have weather far removed from the center... think of them like equal opportunity employers in that everyone gets to go to work to deal with wild weather.


If you want to run the models.
They are on the top left hand below.



See most of the models are coming together.
NHC waits like a sly fox.
Waiting until they have the cone drawn for them.
You can almost draw the cone yourself.



The only real problem with Subtropical Storms is the cone for movement of the center is drawn, but the weather goes everywhere. The local National Weather Service offices are tasked with providing up to the minute watches and warnings for their local coverage areas. That means every town along the coast (and it's a lotta coast) is receiving information sent out over multiple sources be they online, on air or through social media. But like the proverbial tree in the forest ... someone needs to tune in and pay attention to hear the watches and warnings.  In today's world there is no reason for people to not know bad weather is coming unless they have totally ignored it as your phone beeps, your television screen shows it and your WhatsApp groups go crazy. Two young boys were killed in Hurricane Andrew when they took their small but nice boat out as early forecasts showed Hurricane Andrew catching a front and missing South Florida. Things changed fast and at the same time Andrew changed directions Andrew went through rapid development and it was too late for those two young boys. This is not Hurricane Andrew but it is a storm and all storms carry inherent dangers especially going into a 3 day weekend and especially when many may not understand the dangers of a large, tilted, messy subtropical storm that seems far out in the Gulf of Mexico away from your particular harbor.  Please plan accordingly and check with them often. Like produce that is best when it is grown locally in season.... no one covers your local weather better than the NWS. https://www.weather.gov Those dangers at the beach include rip tides that come out of nowhere so please watch the watches and warnings carefully and again they change in real time. 



I suggest you follow and read posts written by Cranky Weatherman on Twitter. He explains the many factors affecting the development of Invest 90L into Alberto. It's a long read I warn you but a great read. http://www.stormhamster.com/entry/e052418b.htm Note there are many online holding out the possibility Alberto finds a sweet spot close in to the coast with minimal shear and extremely warm water and allows Alberto to flirt with hurricane strength. There are also opinions online that Alberto could start swimming loops in the Northern Gulf of Mexico and as Alberto did not watch the segment on TWC on how to survive in a flood and falls apart in the GOM a victim to rapidly changing, unfavorable conditions. Understand both are possible, but only the NHC makes that call so when reading various discussion know it's possible but too soon to tell. Know the difference between shooting the breeze online and a map that the NHC will put out with directions on how to read the map in the longer discussion. Do not just go to the NHC for the pictures!

I just want to point out the bigger problem here is the weather that we already have going on that exacerbates the set up for the landfall of Alberto. There are flooding watches out now for #rain today in parts of Alabama far inland and this has nothing to do with Invest 90L down by the Yucatan. But, it's also that rain and associated low pressure that will help suck Alberto North towards that part of the Gulf of Mexico.





Stay tuned.

Currently Invest 90L is still battling shear and dry air to it's West and NW and the only real steering current is a weak, slowly diving trough. Your usual suspects of Upper Level Lows are out there as well as dry air, shear and marginal water temperatures until you get close in off shore some of the most beautiful beaches and coastline in the country. Please read below the many ways Alberto will be much like a pirate flying different flags but just remember it's a storm and it will have much stormy weather.


Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter

Ps.. Thanks for your patience and please read the previous post where I explain why we should view Invest 90L as a pirate of sorts and again go to the movies.... this is Memorial Day Weekend and Lord knows the movies are dying for some of your attention...or watch Netfllix ;) and remember the beach isn't going anywhere and you have the rest of the summer to enjoy the beach or the pool or the lake. And a vacation at the beach on a cloudy day is still a vacation at the beach... enjoy the breeze, the view and keep checking with your local NWS. 



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Thursday, May 24, 2018

NHC Bullish on Alberto Forming 90% Chances 2 PM. Think of Invest 90L as a Pirate. The NHC Has Their Maps... Pirate Alberto Is Biding His Time & May Be Flying Different Flags to Confuse Us ....


Note they are sending out the planes ...
...to find Alberto and collect data.



Satellite imagery


Note that rain shield there.
All leaning right.
Florida and W Cuba gonna get swamped with rain.



He's still down by Mexico...
...tip of the Yucatan.
Planning his trip North.


Alberto's Pirate Map
Try and catch him if you can.
Good luck.



Think of Alberto like a pirate, biding his time down by the Yucatan planning out his voyage back home to Barataria Bay with a stop to do business in either Mobile Bay or Pensacola Bay. Yes, the government is looking for him and they know he's hiding in some small cove somewhere with his ship but he's good at hiding and playing games with those trying to find him or pin him down. He rarely shows his hand in advance and he's very familiar with the coast line from the Florida Panhandle to Louisiana, he knows every cove, the depth of the water and how to sneak in during stormy weather to get past those hunting him. Often he changes the flag his ship sails under to trick others and well being a pirate he does whatever he has to do to get to where he needs to go. And while traveling about he out runs his opponents, the federals looking for him and doesn't always take a straight path. Alberto the Pirate doesn't like to be easily monitored and he's good at avoiding surveillance and finding a spot to hide out and unload his precious cargo. He's often good at options and he has many so he could just as easily stop in at a cove somewhere that he's familiar with and wait it out until he has the best chance of achieving his goals. My money here is on Alberto.

We have maps like pirates have maps. The NHC has a pirates map filled with information that those cruising the waters near Alberto need to be aware of to best prepare themselves.


Alberto has maps. 
This might be one of them.


We are all looking at maps.
Models, X marks the spot from the NHC.
Waiting on better maps with a cone.
Danger is everywhere.
The whole SE is flying the red danger flag.


Again in theory....
Alberto will be right sided.
Meaning wettest weather to the East.
In theory.
Currently it's Invest 90L

So many maps:

Mike's got lots of maps.
Mike is like a pirate.
A weather, NASCAR pirate :)



Everyone wants to know what to do this coming weekend as it is the official kick off of the Summer and a National Beach or BBQ holiday and that means out door events whether they are fishing, boating, swimming, hunting or hiking. And, there is a danger, pirate flag flying over half the beaches of the Gulf of Mexico and along the East coat of Florida there could be wild squalls and fast moving weather as well. So what do you do? It's easy for me to type "it's too soon" to tell but you want to kiss and tell and you want to know where we are going with this relationship now and to be honest it just takes a while to tell where we are going. Occupational hazard of doing this blog or running a weather site online is people want to know what about their town and the town they hoped to travel to for Memorial Day Weekend. May I suggest a movie and dinner inside somewhere ... somewhere they serve great drinks with little umbrellas in them and you can pretend you are at the beach.


Hans Solo was a Space Pirate.
And a bit of a Space Cowboy.
I have a good feeling about this movie...

Or you can buy lots of beer or sweet fruit drinks and use up your hurricane snacks watching the lava dance in Hawaii and waiting to see in real time what is happening. Currently 7,000 people are watching the feed from some guy's backyard in Hawaii.


You can stay home and watch Mike go Live.


I do love watching Mike think out loud...
Always informative.
More fun than the NHC.
Well generally... 
;)

Honestly I can say this over and over and I'm sorry that this system has been hyped for days now and it looks currently like some picayune annoying mess of rain but if you have studied it carefully like we have you'd know it is beginning to get a "look" and at some point Alberto who is still hiding down there by Mexico close to land is waiting for the shear to subside and waiting for the dry air to juice up a bit before setting sail up into the Gulf of Mexico trying to reach whichever beach he has his sights set on.  You can play on www.windy.com and run the models back and forth as well as www.tropicaltidbits.com and you can hang out at www.hurricanecity.com reading Jim's thoughts and those who post on www.canetalk.com and get a better handle on this storm that may fly the flag of Subtropical Alberto or suddenly sneak in close to the coast flying the flag of Tropical Storm Alberto. Only time will tell.... the water is sufficiently hot to provide fuel for development and really close in the water is even warmer which makes this storm so much more difficult to forecast with an exactitude this far out before he has even wrapped up and pulled up his sails and set sail. Hurricane Recon is set to go in and we will more information late tomorrow. 

http://www.hurricanecity.com/predictions.htm He has Fort Walton Beach, Fl as a moderate risk...


Again the water closest to land is the warmest and that's not good as it means possible strengthening very close to land.  One of the problems with Gulf of Mexico systems early in the year is that the water is usually warmest closest to land. That means there is little leeway time wise to warn the people living or visiting there and it pushes the NHC to err on the side of caution. Historically storms have pulled together, ramped up making a run for hurricane status and coming in as a very strong Tropical Storm after waddling around the GOM as a weak Subtropical Storm. 

Bottom Line: To soon to tell exactly where this ends up but it will be dragging tropical moisture with it and towns in West Cuba and Florida will be the first to feel it's fury. This is not Hurricane Wilma or Hurricane Opal or Hurricane Katrina it is Alberto in the end and I do think it will get a name but will it fly the flag of Subtropical or Tropical or both? Only time will tell....

Don't ask me what I would do because I have been known to take my kids to the beach just before a hurricane and Mike most definitely would take his girls out to the beach to feel the wind while doing a Facebook Live. I do want to say that if you are not familiar with the beach it becomes dangerous fast for small children or even strong adults with riptides and thrashing waves at the height of a passing squall that can knock you off your feet and try to drag you out to sea. You got to be careful, you got to err on the side of caution and you got to find things to do indoors this weekend if Alberto puts into port near your town or throws a lightning bolt of nasty weather your way as he cruises by on his way to somewhere else. My money is still on landfall somewhere between Mobile Bay and the Florida Panhandle, but a lot depends on the strength of the High and how strong Alberto gets as he moves slowly towards landfall somewhere.

sat_ir_enh_east_loop-12.gif (640×512)

Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter for responses in real time as we shoot the tropical breeze and discuss the tropics, maps, models and where to go for Memorial Day Weekend...








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90L Up to RED 80% - The Name Alberto Is Waiting For It... It has to pull together, get away from land ..and shear needs to let up a bit. Keep Watching. Models Begin to Agree


Note the words "drifts North" in discussion

There must be some song that's ten by ten, I know there's one that's two by two but as I said previously as long as the models are bullish on development the NHC will keep edging their percentage up by 10% so you can do the math we will have a Tropical Depression at some point sooner rather than later. The problem with Invest 90L is that it's appearance going into the Memorial Day Weekend threatening a large part of the Eastern Gulf of Mexico and it's adjacent beaches and attractions hypes the concern to carefully protect the lives of those people who live there and who travel there on vacation. Memorial Day Weekend is not just another day at the beach and people need to plan and they also need to take it seriously. They also have to use a measure of caution yet at the same time this is not a Hurricane nor is it even forecast to become a strong Tropical Storm. Note there are some models that show this could be stronger vs a minimal TS Alberto. Add to the confusion the tag Subtropical Alberto will most likely be used at least in the beginning and people don't really understand what the difference is and that's why I wrote about it yesterday. It means that the "area of strong rain" with "associated flooding" could be far, far away from the actual center unless it makes that transition to a Tropical Storm and wraps up tightly.

I'm going to begin this morning's discussion by asking you to read last night's post as much of what I wrote is still relevant and I will write a longer post this afternoon with more details.  So moving forward it's worth noting that the Euro and GFS are slowly coming into agreement on landfall and strength. The NAM, which is a different sort of model, lags behind and keeps it further South in the GOM whereas the EURO and GFS are targeting an area near Mobile Bay; it would be splitting hairs to say which city gets the "center" as everyone nearby will get the weather and even areas very far away in Florida could get strong squalls passing through causing localized problems.

http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/2018/05/nhc-gives-invest-90l-60-chances-of.html

Currently not much of a Selfie for 90L


Not much of a wind signature yet


Euro


GFS


NAM


The problem the NHC has is to forecast and prepare people properly across a wide area of the Gulf of Mexico and as you know when something gets into the Gulf of Mexico there is an implied landfall as it's a bull in the china shop. Rain totals are high along the beaches of the Central and Eastern part of the Gulf of Mexico. Note it won't rain ALL day but it's a fluid situation which can change dramatically at any time during the next several days. If you are going to Tampa...there's a lot to do indoors in Tampa. If you are going hiking somewhere be very careful and make sure you have a good signal on your cellphone so you can get timely updates. If you are going boating... I wouldn't go too far out into the Gulf and perhaps put that trip off for another time. If you are going to the beach pray for rain, plan events indoors if it rains often and use spray tan ... as you may not get a great tan at the beach this Memorial Day Weekend. If you are the type that is afraid of bad weather, even if it's just strong thunderstorms, you might want to plan a Staycation rather than driving five or six hours there and back and being rained out and having the water too rough to let the kids go swim in. Then again most hotels have great pools and in Florida, unless there is lightning, we swim in the rain. 

So I'll update this blog or write a new post later today after some models come in and I totally wake up and shake off the allergy meds as I didn't get a lot of sleep last night. And, to be honest not much as changed other than the possibility of a stall somewhere near land as indicated yesterday by a few of the models. 

There is a strong High to the East of the forecast path of what will be Alberto and it's pushing West and as Alberto is a Low it will seek out the area of lowest pressure and try to avoid the High. There is a blocking high to the North so it won't barrel North at a high speed and there is no diving front to pick it up. There is a weak high to it's West so it won't be going WNW. It will drift Northish and look for a warm spot in the Gulf of Mexico to intensify. The NHC is not hyping it, but Alberto's appearance going into a beach themed weekend holiday amps up the need to be very careful with advance watches and warnings. At the same time Alberto has not formed yet and has been a slow poke so far so I don't see any thing on the weather map that tells me this will not change any time soon. 

Do not get lost in the title of Subtropical or Tropical other than this general rule.

Subtropical: Rain w strong weather can be far removed from the center of landfall.

Tropical: Stronger weather at the center closest to landfall.

Both can carry weather that is misplaced to the East and both can create squall lines far from the actual center. Bottom line... pay attention to the local NWS forecast for your specific area of concern and check back here often as well as at www.spaghettimodels.com and you may want to play a bit at www.windy.com

Again please read last night's update and yesterday's blog as the information there is still relevant today. Note the model no longer loops but it kinks so timing of arrival of Alberto is still a big question mark though the NHC will firm that up by Friday evening I'm sure. But much depends on Invest 90L and it's ability to fight off the current shear and move away from land to start doing it's forecast thing.


Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter 

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