HEAT RECORDS BROKEN IN SOUTH... cool in the West... Tornadoes Still Happening. EF3 El Reno Killed 2 People. Memorial Day Weekend 2019

Tropics Memorial Day Weekend 2019

Days before the start of the Hurricane Season.

The NHC "nothing happening pale baby blue" is there

There's also a mess of convection in the SW Caribbean.

Central America Gyre aka CAG

Could something develop down there?

Possibly, not probably but a possibility.

I tweeted this last night.

Shear would have to relax.

Shear is forecast to relax.

MJO? Yeah maybe...who knows.

Keep watching.

And we have all been watching tornadoes lately.

First comes tornado season.

Then comes hurricane season.

Just to be clear before going on with some hot weather and tropical weather history the El Reno Tornado was a EF3. This rating was expected from the damage however until it's official we wait and see what the experts find. The experts found a small but devastating path of destruction for a short lived but strong tornado that killed two people and destroyed parts of El Reno; a town very familiar with destructive May tornadoes. In this case the fast developing, fast moving tornado hit an area with a motel that was adjacent to a trailer park and a car dealership which obviously made the situation worse wherever those cars landed. The article below is a good article to read on the tornado especially for anyone who has been obsessed with them since the first time they watched either The Wizard of Oz or Twister.

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/05/26/us/oklahoma-el-reno-tornado.html

Another thing I want to point out is how pathetic it is sometimes to have expectations of a season or a day in history to judge that season or outbreak by be it Hurricanes or Tornadoes. Last weekend The Weather Channel was on air nonstop with headlines implying 60 million people were in the path of expected long track, destructive wedge tornadoes across a wide swath of the country. And, that was true for last weekend as much as it was forecast for most of the week after that. We are still "there" so to speak the violent weather on the Plains is not yet in the rear view mirror and more severe weather is still expected. This is the season they did not get last year when tornadoes took a Northern holiday and went elsewhere to places such as Wyoming and Cape Cod.

What we need to stop doing is thinking that a weak hurricane season because of an El Nino may keep us safer as history has not shown that to be the case and even worse the seasons when we begin to leave El Nino in the rear view mirror often tend to be the most memorable ones. Hurricane Andrew that was the first named storm to form in the middle of August is a prime example of why we should not judge a hurricane season by how busy it is and in the same way we should not judge possible tornado outbreaks by the size and duration of a large wedge tornado. Obviously the damage done to Moore Oklahoma by large, long duration wedge tornadoes over history makes us look towards them as the bar to judge a tornado outbreak.... however.... if you live in El Reno or any other town hit this week by tornadoes you don't think this outbreak was a "bust" because the previous Saturday was relatively quiet. The word relative is always important when reviewing weather history and various events. And this storm season out on the Plains is not over so everyone put those relative expectations where they belong and take it hour by hour, day by day.

Note the frequency here of 1926, 1953 and 2012.

1989 shows up too often as well.

But going to ignore that one for now.

I don't like to cry shark in a room full of Carolinians.

Let's move on to what I feel is the most important story possibly of this week and that is the record heat in the Southeast. Again, using that word relative it's worth remembering I live in the Carolinas and it relates to me. If I lived on the West Coast I'd be begging for some warm weather and wondering when this cool, wet weather trend is going to end. It's a regional phenomenon caused by atmospheric features far away that are in a stuck pattern that at some point down the road will become unstuck .... trust me on this.

A list of some of the records yesterday reads as follows.
Atlanta 100 degrees. Record broken was set in 1898, 1953, 1962
Augusta 100 degrees. Record broken was set in 1926.
Charleston, SC hit 100 degrees yesterday. 1953, 1989 were both in play record wise.
Fayettevillle NC hit 100 degrees. Record broken was 1926.
Florence SC hit 102 degrees. Record set was 1926.
Muscle Shoals of Jimmy Buffet fame hit 97 degrees. Record broken was 2012.

Charleston thought they peaked....

...but they were wrong.

What is unnerving to me and a few others is the constant references to certain year's records that were broken over the last several days and that is because those years were years when there was a huge High in the Atlantic and are infamous for hurricane landfalls along the East Coast and the Gulf of Mexico. Again for newbies hurricanes often trace the high in the Atlantic and they ride in under the high and then try and turn North wherever the High ends... add to that if or when there are any fronts on the map that may try and pull them North faster at the end of the High that is .... where landfall happens.

Again everything is relative so when I see the years 1926 and 1953 I think of Florida and East Coast hurricanes. I'm sure when I say 1989 my friend in Mt. Pleasant immediate thinks "oh crap... and remembers Hugo" so this is all relative and yes Sandy hit the New York area in 2012. Some records had previously been from 1979 and any South Floridian will scream DAVID while those along coast of the Gulf of Mexico will scream FREDERIC!

Monday records broken went back to 1916.

That year has shown up frequently this May.

Must have been a hot May.

And I'm guessing a very strong High pressure system.

1916 was a busy season with 5 major hurricanes.

The year 1916 sporadically comes up in broken heat records.

I felt it was a good year to review.

As it's not usually mentioned.

And that was BEFORE satellite imagery.

A close up look at the Gulf Coast Storm

That's a July Hurricane by the way.

Sadly too often heat waves are broken by tropical events.

Then in August there was the Texas Hurricane.

It formed as a wave traveling beneath a huge High.

Into the Caribbean ... Gulf of Mexico and hit Texas.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1916_Texas_hurricane

Hope you are seeing the pattern here ....

...reading the hot tea leaves.

The year 1916 comes up frequently but most people do not remember it because well to be honest other than settlements in Tampa, a very young Miami and Key West not many in Southern Florida lived there or wrote much about that year and it landed in Texas relatively lucky for Floridians. But it was one of those years where a hurricane rode into the Gulf of Mexico around a huge High and made landfall far in Texas to be remembered as one of the Great Hurricanes of that region. Obviously in a time before satellite imagery it's hard to say where that wave first formed but it either developed out of some sort of Central America Gyre or a westbound tropical wave from Africa or a wave collided with the CAG. Camille formed in this region in 1969 but we know it was an Africa wave that didn't develop until it hit those friendly, welcoming waters. Often a high to the North and low shear there will get a storm going fast over very warm Caribbean waters. The 1916 Hurricane has it's own link....

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1916_Gulf_Coast_hurricane

The year 1953 comes up in the Carolinas nonstop this week.

The first thing you see above is the HIGH.... 

The dark blue where NO storms formed.

Note many have predicted these totals for 2019.

14 storms, 7 hurricanes and 3 majors.

It would and could be an analog year.

It was also a horrible year for tornadoes.

https://www.alabamawx.com/?p=13128

Sometimes the High held strong...

..sometimes it did not.

Fish storms formed early... out to sea.

Others did not go out to sea.

Several barreled into the Caribbean.

Another similar season number wise.

Oh yes 1926... 

A hurricane year to remember in the Bahamas, Cuba and Florida.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1926_Atlantic_hurricane_season

You can track the storms around the early High Pressure.

Later in the season they came from the SW...

Every which way but whatever that song was..

In October an infamous hurricane happened in Cuba.

Obviously caught an early front and traced the high that a way.

1926 was seriously one of the worst, early heat waves in the SE.

Rather early storms formed and kept forming all season.

Each season is different, but seeing 1926 show up often is not good.

1926 as a whole below.

Rob from www.crownweather.com and I were talking last night.

Historical weather patterns that repeat.

That year was dangerous in the areas he highlighted for this year.

Note here 1953 as an analog fits in well here.

Rob is very good at nailing a seasonal pattern early.

His 2018 regions shown below.

That would be Florence and Michael.

He nailed them both.

2017 he was worried on the Caribbean Islands.

Sadly he nailed that too....

Though Irma kept going towards Florida.

Again patterns repeat....

...each storm and each year is unique.

But the pattern repeats.

I might add for his sake the year 1938 recently came up as well.

New England people remember that one....

...the way Floridians remember Andrew and Irma.

So I'm leaving you with this thought.

Prepare for a possibly very busy hurricane season.

And I'm talking major hurricanes.

And I'm talking hurricanes that ride a huge high.

Hurricanes that can happen in the following places:

Caribbean

Gulf of Mexico

Along the East Coast.

Florida is in the way there..

And I'm a bit worried on Texas at some point.

With such a strong high....

....IF the shear relaxes.

The water is hot and they could be in the mix.

So take a list, check it twice.

Whether you have been naught or nice...

Hurricanes may try to come and visit.

And like relatives .... they come back often.

Years with an early storm like 1926...

...then another Cat 4 in 1926 a bit further down the beach.

Jeanne and Frances..

Maria and Irma.

The list goes on and on.

Make your list.

Start buying Hurricane Supplies now.

Fix the roof, check the windows.

Now is the time to prepare...

...not when you get to the market too late.

And all that is left is canned oysters.

Well ... unless you really like canned oysters.

But apparently not too many people do.

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram 

Follow me there for live updates.

Remember when the heat is on early.........

... it often portends a busy hurricane season.

UPDATED! SUBTROPICAL STORM ALBERTO FORMS From Invest 90L- Trying to Reason With Hurricane Season on Memorial Day Weekend.

Subtropical Storm Alberto Has Formed.

Officially at 11 AM

NHC will issue advisories.

Closed circulation shown below.

Subtropical Storm Alberto will be officially on the maps as of 11 AM with cones and other relevant information. https://www.nhc.noaa.gov Refer to their site for all the official information. I'll update this blog early in the afternoon after the next model runs and hopefully after getting information from recon.  Note the morning visible of Alberto below.

Wider view below.

Again this is a lop sided system.

Subtropical = oblong 

Currently the wxr is off to the right

NW to be exact.

Note the image below screen shot from Mike's Facebook Live where he showed possible points of landfall as per the models. Note the stronger colors to the right of the point of landfall. This may make landfall give or take around Mobile Bay, but the weather in the Florida Panhandle is going to be memorable on Memorial Day Weekend. If you can get some partying in tomorrow go for it as the weather will go downhill closer to Monday.

I'll be back with all the cones and whistles later.

Again refer to the NHC and Spaghetti Models.

www.spaghettimodels.com

I'm out and about shopping and doing things so I can be back here in a little while with updated information. For now they are now hoisting their flag early and it's a good call and it was time to do it. Let's see what Recon finds when they fly down into Alberto. 2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season has begun whether you are ready for it or not!

Feel free to keep reading as the information is still timely. We just officially have what was already being called Alberto by most of us. 

* * *

Holding at 90% over the next 2 days.

The 5 day has now become the 2 day.

Note that the winds are beginning to tighten up.

Stronger winds closer to strongest convection.

INVEST 90L (note I shaded that in the picture above in blue) is slowly setting sail leaving land behind. Once out over land the Hurricane Hunters will fly down and try to gather more information about Invest 90L to see what is really going on with it. That data they will gather will be added into the next few model runs and in theory... the models should get a better handle on where it's ultimate destination is in the end game. It's obvious it's North bound into the Gulf of Mexico but will it sail steadily North or will it hook a bit to the left as most models indicate it will? Is it possible it will loop or stall? That is a possibility too. When watching a deep, diving cold front it is easier to forecast how a storm will be influenced by it, but when you are watching a digging upper level feature that will clash with a developing subtropical or tropical system it's harder to analyze the battle going on between the two as the set up is fluid and not carved in stone. 

Again as I wrote yesterday, "Alberto" is like a pirate and often a pirate ship would hoist several different flags but whichever flag it was flying it was still a pirate. Invest 90L aka Alberto aka "huge gale system" is still an area of stormy weather with strong winds, high waves, much convection and it will bring with it high tides as well as beach and boating dangers. Flooding is a definite possibility as the area it is traveling towards has been inundated with rain for the last week or more depending on the particular area. You know the saying... "when it rains it pours" and that applies here. We don't name "huge Gale systems" so the NHC will probably upgrade it to "Subtropical Storm" and no not even TWC names Gale Systems.  Sorry it's going to wash out many people's Memorial Day Plans. Always good to have a Plan B or options. 

There is something about Memorial Day and Labor Day that brings out both the crazy people and tropical storms that threaten to throw a wet blanket on people hoping to party at the beach. Usually Memorial Day in Miami (for example) is a messy mix of Monsoon Weather and Weak Tropical Waves adding to the drama of the daily tropical down bursts and added tourists looking to party. Cities along the Gulf Coast are used to dealing with systems that are weak but a pain in the proverbial ass.  I feel bad for those losing money either on vacation deals they can't cancel and also the local beach vendors who are usually the back bone of America's Mom and Pop stores that service the beach goers. But it's not that uncommon and this is the time of year that if it's going to happen it will happen in this area. 

Today the beaches are beautiful and the weather tomorrow will be beautiful, but day by day the weather will degrade and people will be dealing with whatever Alberto becomes. Today is that day to try and figure out what you will do this weekend and early into next weekend if the moisture from what should be Alberto comes your way. Check out the movies and indoor events, binge on Netflix or make a Netflix Party with your friends and binge together. Shop for school supplies or hurricane supplies or finish your Spring Cleaning. Yes it is still officially Spring.

I will update the blog later today after the next model run and after recon goes in (which it will probably do unless they bail out and try again tomorrow morning) and update this blog with actual model data and deeper discussion. What I want to leave with you this morning is the slow, tenuous birth of what most likely will be Alberto is in the end stages, Mother Nature is cranky and really does not want to hear you ask one more time "so how are we doing? is today the day?" because she's tired but Alberto should appear over the next 2 days as we are at a 90% chance already for the next 24 chances. I'm not much of a gambler, but I'd take those odds.  Note the paragraph below and read it over a few times as it is the best advice anyone can give you. Check with your local authorities about the weather associated with Invest 90L aka "Alberto" and plan accordingly. Check with your local authorities often as these type of storms change often in development; multiple centers battle each other for control of the storm as well as the distant squalls far from the actual coordinates as "subtropical storms" have weather far removed from the center... think of them like equal opportunity employers in that everyone gets to go to work to deal with wild weather.

If you want to run the models.

They are on the top left hand below.

See most of the models are coming together.

NHC waits like a sly fox.

Waiting until they have the cone drawn for them.

You can almost draw the cone yourself.

The only real problem with Subtropical Storms is the cone for movement of the center is drawn, but the weather goes everywhere. The local National Weather Service offices are tasked with providing up to the minute watches and warnings for their local coverage areas. That means every town along the coast (and it's a lotta coast) is receiving information sent out over multiple sources be they online, on air or through social media. But like the proverbial tree in the forest ... someone needs to tune in and pay attention to hear the watches and warnings.  In today's world there is no reason for people to not know bad weather is coming unless they have totally ignored it as your phone beeps, your television screen shows it and your WhatsApp groups go crazy. Two young boys were killed in Hurricane Andrew when they took their small but nice boat out as early forecasts showed Hurricane Andrew catching a front and missing South Florida. Things changed fast and at the same time Andrew changed directions Andrew went through rapid development and it was too late for those two young boys. This is not Hurricane Andrew but it is a storm and all storms carry inherent dangers especially going into a 3 day weekend and especially when many may not understand the dangers of a large, tilted, messy subtropical storm that seems far out in the Gulf of Mexico away from your particular harbor.  Please plan accordingly and check with them often. Like produce that is best when it is grown locally in season.... no one covers your local weather better than the NWS. https://www.weather.gov Those dangers at the beach include rip tides that come out of nowhere so please watch the watches and warnings carefully and again they change in real time. 

I suggest you follow and read posts written by Cranky Weatherman on Twitter. He explains the many factors affecting the development of Invest 90L into Alberto. It's a long read I warn you but a great read. http://www.stormhamster.com/entry/e052418b.htm Note there are many online holding out the possibility Alberto finds a sweet spot close in to the coast with minimal shear and extremely warm water and allows Alberto to flirt with hurricane strength. There are also opinions online that Alberto could start swimming loops in the Northern Gulf of Mexico and as Alberto did not watch the segment on TWC on how to survive in a flood and falls apart in the GOM a victim to rapidly changing, unfavorable conditions. Understand both are possible, but only the NHC makes that call so when reading various discussion know it's possible but too soon to tell. Know the difference between shooting the breeze online and a map that the NHC will put out with directions on how to read the map in the longer discussion. Do not just go to the NHC for the pictures!

I just want to point out the bigger problem here is the weather that we already have going on that exacerbates the set up for the landfall of Alberto. There are flooding watches out now for #rain today in parts of Alabama far inland and this has nothing to do with Invest 90L down by the Yucatan. But, it's also that rain and associated low pressure that will help suck Alberto North towards that part of the Gulf of Mexico.

Stay tuned.

Currently Invest 90L is still battling shear and dry air to it's West and NW and the only real steering current is a weak, slowly diving trough. Your usual suspects of Upper Level Lows are out there as well as dry air, shear and marginal water temperatures until you get close in off shore some of the most beautiful beaches and coastline in the country. Please read below the many ways Alberto will be much like a pirate flying different flags but just remember it's a storm and it will have much stormy weather.

http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/2018/05/nhc-bullish-on-alberto-forming-90.html

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter

Ps.. Thanks for your patience and please read the previous post where I explain why we should view Invest 90L as a pirate of sorts and again go to the movies.... this is Memorial Day Weekend and Lord knows the movies are dying for some of your attention...or watch Netfllix ;) and remember the beach isn't going anywhere and you have the rest of the summer to enjoy the beach or the pool or the lake. And a vacation at the beach on a cloudy day is still a vacation at the beach... enjoy the breeze, the view and keep checking with your local NWS. 

NHC Bullish on Alberto Forming 90% Chances 2 PM. Think of Invest 90L as a Pirate. The NHC Has Their Maps... Pirate Alberto Is Biding His Time & May Be Flying Different Flags to Confuse Us ....

Note they are sending out the planes ...

...to find Alberto and collect data.

Satellite imagery

Note that rain shield there.

All leaning right.

Florida and W Cuba gonna get swamped with rain.

He's still down by Mexico...

...tip of the Yucatan.

Planning his trip North.

Alberto's Pirate Map

Try and catch him if you can.

Good luck.

Think of Alberto like a pirate, biding his time down by the Yucatan planning out his voyage back home to Barataria Bay with a stop to do business in either Mobile Bay or Pensacola Bay. Yes, the government is looking for him and they know he's hiding in some small cove somewhere with his ship but he's good at hiding and playing games with those trying to find him or pin him down. He rarely shows his hand in advance and he's very familiar with the coast line from the Florida Panhandle to Louisiana, he knows every cove, the depth of the water and how to sneak in during stormy weather to get past those hunting him. Often he changes the flag his ship sails under to trick others and well being a pirate he does whatever he has to do to get to where he needs to go. And while traveling about he out runs his opponents, the federals looking for him and doesn't always take a straight path. Alberto the Pirate doesn't like to be easily monitored and he's good at avoiding surveillance and finding a spot to hide out and unload his precious cargo. He's often good at options and he has many so he could just as easily stop in at a cove somewhere that he's familiar with and wait it out until he has the best chance of achieving his goals. My money here is on Alberto.

We have maps like pirates have maps. The NHC has a pirates map filled with information that those cruising the waters near Alberto need to be aware of to best prepare themselves.

Alberto has maps. 

This might be one of them.

We are all looking at maps.

Models, X marks the spot from the NHC.

Waiting on better maps with a cone.

Danger is everywhere.

The whole SE is flying the red danger flag.

Again in theory....

Alberto will be right sided.

Meaning wettest weather to the East.

In theory.

Currently it's Invest 90L

So many maps:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=qpf

Mike's got lots of maps.

Mike is like a pirate.

A weather, NASCAR pirate :)

Everyone wants to know what to do this coming weekend as it is the official kick off of the Summer and a National Beach or BBQ holiday and that means out door events whether they are fishing, boating, swimming, hunting or hiking. And, there is a danger, pirate flag flying over half the beaches of the Gulf of Mexico and along the East coat of Florida there could be wild squalls and fast moving weather as well. So what do you do? It's easy for me to type "it's too soon" to tell but you want to kiss and tell and you want to know where we are going with this relationship now and to be honest it just takes a while to tell where we are going. Occupational hazard of doing this blog or running a weather site online is people want to know what about their town and the town they hoped to travel to for Memorial Day Weekend. May I suggest a movie and dinner inside somewhere ... somewhere they serve great drinks with little umbrellas in them and you can pretend you are at the beach.

Hans Solo was a Space Pirate.

And a bit of a Space Cowboy.

I have a good feeling about this movie...

Or you can buy lots of beer or sweet fruit drinks and use up your hurricane snacks watching the lava dance in Hawaii and waiting to see in real time what is happening. Currently 7,000 people are watching the feed from some guy's backyard in Hawaii.

You can stay home and watch Mike go Live.

https://www.facebook.com/mikesweatherpage/

I do love watching Mike think out loud...

Always informative.

More fun than the NHC.

Well generally... 

;)

Honestly I can say this over and over and I'm sorry that this system has been hyped for days now and it looks currently like some picayune annoying mess of rain but if you have studied it carefully like we have you'd know it is beginning to get a "look" and at some point Alberto who is still hiding down there by Mexico close to land is waiting for the shear to subside and waiting for the dry air to juice up a bit before setting sail up into the Gulf of Mexico trying to reach whichever beach he has his sights set on.  You can play on www.windy.com and run the models back and forth as well as www.tropicaltidbits.com and you can hang out at www.hurricanecity.com reading Jim's thoughts and those who post on www.canetalk.com and get a better handle on this storm that may fly the flag of Subtropical Alberto or suddenly sneak in close to the coast flying the flag of Tropical Storm Alberto. Only time will tell.... the water is sufficiently hot to provide fuel for development and really close in the water is even warmer which makes this storm so much more difficult to forecast with an exactitude this far out before he has even wrapped up and pulled up his sails and set sail. Hurricane Recon is set to go in and we will more information late tomorrow. 

http://www.hurricanecity.com/predictions.htm He has Fort Walton Beach, Fl as a moderate risk...

Again the water closest to land is the warmest and that's not good as it means possible strengthening very close to land.  One of the problems with Gulf of Mexico systems early in the year is that the water is usually warmest closest to land. That means there is little leeway time wise to warn the people living or visiting there and it pushes the NHC to err on the side of caution. Historically storms have pulled together, ramped up making a run for hurricane status and coming in as a very strong Tropical Storm after waddling around the GOM as a weak Subtropical Storm. 

Bottom Line: To soon to tell exactly where this ends up but it will be dragging tropical moisture with it and towns in West Cuba and Florida will be the first to feel it's fury. This is not Hurricane Wilma or Hurricane Opal or Hurricane Katrina it is Alberto in the end and I do think it will get a name but will it fly the flag of Subtropical or Tropical or both? Only time will tell....

Don't ask me what I would do because I have been known to take my kids to the beach just before a hurricane and Mike most definitely would take his girls out to the beach to feel the wind while doing a Facebook Live. I do want to say that if you are not familiar with the beach it becomes dangerous fast for small children or even strong adults with riptides and thrashing waves at the height of a passing squall that can knock you off your feet and try to drag you out to sea. You got to be careful, you got to err on the side of caution and you got to find things to do indoors this weekend if Alberto puts into port near your town or throws a lightning bolt of nasty weather your way as he cruises by on his way to somewhere else. My money is still on landfall somewhere between Mobile Bay and the Florida Panhandle, but a lot depends on the strength of the High and how strong Alberto gets as he moves slowly towards landfall somewhere.

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter for responses in real time as we shoot the tropical breeze and discuss the tropics, maps, models and where to go for Memorial Day Weekend...