NHC Bullish on Alberto Forming 90% Chances 2 PM. Think of Invest 90L as a Pirate. The NHC Has Their Maps... Pirate Alberto Is Biding His Time & May Be Flying Different Flags to Confuse Us ....

Note they are sending out the planes ...

...to find Alberto and collect data.

Satellite imagery

Note that rain shield there.

All leaning right.

Florida and W Cuba gonna get swamped with rain.

He's still down by Mexico...

...tip of the Yucatan.

Planning his trip North.

Alberto's Pirate Map

Try and catch him if you can.

Good luck.

Think of Alberto like a pirate, biding his time down by the Yucatan planning out his voyage back home to Barataria Bay with a stop to do business in either Mobile Bay or Pensacola Bay. Yes, the government is looking for him and they know he's hiding in some small cove somewhere with his ship but he's good at hiding and playing games with those trying to find him or pin him down. He rarely shows his hand in advance and he's very familiar with the coast line from the Florida Panhandle to Louisiana, he knows every cove, the depth of the water and how to sneak in during stormy weather to get past those hunting him. Often he changes the flag his ship sails under to trick others and well being a pirate he does whatever he has to do to get to where he needs to go. And while traveling about he out runs his opponents, the federals looking for him and doesn't always take a straight path. Alberto the Pirate doesn't like to be easily monitored and he's good at avoiding surveillance and finding a spot to hide out and unload his precious cargo. He's often good at options and he has many so he could just as easily stop in at a cove somewhere that he's familiar with and wait it out until he has the best chance of achieving his goals. My money here is on Alberto.

We have maps like pirates have maps. The NHC has a pirates map filled with information that those cruising the waters near Alberto need to be aware of to best prepare themselves.

Alberto has maps. 

This might be one of them.

We are all looking at maps.

Models, X marks the spot from the NHC.

Waiting on better maps with a cone.

Danger is everywhere.

The whole SE is flying the red danger flag.

Again in theory....

Alberto will be right sided.

Meaning wettest weather to the East.

In theory.

Currently it's Invest 90L

So many maps:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=qpf

Mike's got lots of maps.

Mike is like a pirate.

A weather, NASCAR pirate :)

Everyone wants to know what to do this coming weekend as it is the official kick off of the Summer and a National Beach or BBQ holiday and that means out door events whether they are fishing, boating, swimming, hunting or hiking. And, there is a danger, pirate flag flying over half the beaches of the Gulf of Mexico and along the East coat of Florida there could be wild squalls and fast moving weather as well. So what do you do? It's easy for me to type "it's too soon" to tell but you want to kiss and tell and you want to know where we are going with this relationship now and to be honest it just takes a while to tell where we are going. Occupational hazard of doing this blog or running a weather site online is people want to know what about their town and the town they hoped to travel to for Memorial Day Weekend. May I suggest a movie and dinner inside somewhere ... somewhere they serve great drinks with little umbrellas in them and you can pretend you are at the beach.

Hans Solo was a Space Pirate.

And a bit of a Space Cowboy.

I have a good feeling about this movie...

Or you can buy lots of beer or sweet fruit drinks and use up your hurricane snacks watching the lava dance in Hawaii and waiting to see in real time what is happening. Currently 7,000 people are watching the feed from some guy's backyard in Hawaii.

You can stay home and watch Mike go Live.

https://www.facebook.com/mikesweatherpage/

I do love watching Mike think out loud...

Always informative.

More fun than the NHC.

Well generally... 

;)

Honestly I can say this over and over and I'm sorry that this system has been hyped for days now and it looks currently like some picayune annoying mess of rain but if you have studied it carefully like we have you'd know it is beginning to get a "look" and at some point Alberto who is still hiding down there by Mexico close to land is waiting for the shear to subside and waiting for the dry air to juice up a bit before setting sail up into the Gulf of Mexico trying to reach whichever beach he has his sights set on.  You can play on www.windy.com and run the models back and forth as well as www.tropicaltidbits.com and you can hang out at www.hurricanecity.com reading Jim's thoughts and those who post on www.canetalk.com and get a better handle on this storm that may fly the flag of Subtropical Alberto or suddenly sneak in close to the coast flying the flag of Tropical Storm Alberto. Only time will tell.... the water is sufficiently hot to provide fuel for development and really close in the water is even warmer which makes this storm so much more difficult to forecast with an exactitude this far out before he has even wrapped up and pulled up his sails and set sail. Hurricane Recon is set to go in and we will more information late tomorrow. 

http://www.hurricanecity.com/predictions.htm He has Fort Walton Beach, Fl as a moderate risk...

Again the water closest to land is the warmest and that's not good as it means possible strengthening very close to land.  One of the problems with Gulf of Mexico systems early in the year is that the water is usually warmest closest to land. That means there is little leeway time wise to warn the people living or visiting there and it pushes the NHC to err on the side of caution. Historically storms have pulled together, ramped up making a run for hurricane status and coming in as a very strong Tropical Storm after waddling around the GOM as a weak Subtropical Storm. 

Bottom Line: To soon to tell exactly where this ends up but it will be dragging tropical moisture with it and towns in West Cuba and Florida will be the first to feel it's fury. This is not Hurricane Wilma or Hurricane Opal or Hurricane Katrina it is Alberto in the end and I do think it will get a name but will it fly the flag of Subtropical or Tropical or both? Only time will tell....

Don't ask me what I would do because I have been known to take my kids to the beach just before a hurricane and Mike most definitely would take his girls out to the beach to feel the wind while doing a Facebook Live. I do want to say that if you are not familiar with the beach it becomes dangerous fast for small children or even strong adults with riptides and thrashing waves at the height of a passing squall that can knock you off your feet and try to drag you out to sea. You got to be careful, you got to err on the side of caution and you got to find things to do indoors this weekend if Alberto puts into port near your town or throws a lightning bolt of nasty weather your way as he cruises by on his way to somewhere else. My money is still on landfall somewhere between Mobile Bay and the Florida Panhandle, but a lot depends on the strength of the High and how strong Alberto gets as he moves slowly towards landfall somewhere.

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter for responses in real time as we shoot the tropical breeze and discuss the tropics, maps, models and where to go for Memorial Day Weekend...