Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Monday, June 08, 2020

Cristobal a Stormy Story Still Unfolding. Where's Dolly? Will Dolly Be a Deja Vu Storm in GOM? African Waves.... A Look at Hurricane History. Matthew, Florence, Sandy and the 1926 Great Miami Hurricane. Miami Beach History & Architecture




Cristobal inland and still traveling.
Has a passport to Canada...
..and no govt official can keep him out.

I'll do an End Game Post on Cristobal....
...when it's oveer. 
Because the story is far from over.

As for the Tropics today...
..what are we looking at?
Tropical Possibilities.


That's high latitude trouible for June.
June too soon but is it in 2020?
Below is the SW Carib.
Models show a Deja Vu storm forming...
...and moving up into the GOM AGAIN.
Is that Dolly? 
Say it ain't Deja Vu Dolly?


Time will tell.

In motion below.





Yes there is in area the Atlantic there is a yellow area.
NHC walking back it's chances so ...
....not gonna talk on it now.

But further out in the Atlantic is a Wave off Africa.
A wave departing Africa higher up...
..where they are supposed to be.
Where they need to be to develop.
5 degrees is too far South.
10 degrees and we have possibilities.

We will talk on that later.
Today I'm looking back a bit at history.
Why????
Because history repeats.
And we learn from history!

These images from Tropical Storm Cristobal isnpired today's Hurricane History part of the blog.

Currently Cristobal is moving up through the center of the Country, still in the South but on his way Northbound carrying with it the potential for severe weather and localized flooding. Honestly, that has been it's legacy as it's distant weather pounded Central Florida with thunderstorms and tornadoes and localized flooding in the delta regions of Louisiana along the barrier islands of Mississippi. People seem surprised because it was "only a Tropical Storm" and a pretty minimal one intensity wise but a wet, tropical storm can carry with it a whole lot of water.


Steve means lousy as in intensity.
But in watery misery for those cleaning up...
...it was a messy, crappy storm.
Not intense, but size wise huge and wet.


That's sand not sea foam.

I saw this picture from post Tropical Storm Cristobal coverage and it amazed me that people were amazed that this could or would happen. If you live in a beach town and the tropical wind brings in a tropical storm or hurricane it's common to have your streets near the beach covered in sand; adding especially if the storm has come a long ways to your door to deliver you that sand. It's often not how intense a hurricane is, but on the contrary, how far it has traveled to get to your destination.



Sand covered the boardwalk in Long Beach, NY after Sandy a once Major Hurricane going extratropical tore up the boardwalk and flooded homes, businesses and left a mess after traveling a long distance from the Deep Caribbean.



You have to think of a hurricane as a living breathing thing, that has traveled huge distances carrying with it a dome of water and moving endlessly until it can't travel anymore on the ocean and then it rams itself up onto your door like a wrecking ball. A storm such as Matthew or Florence will do more water damage than a storm that blows up immediately and makes landfall suddenly. Again, I said "water damage" vs strong winds or severe weather. Matthew made landfall as a Caegory 1 Hurricane in South Carolina as it's explosive water footprint stomped far inland into North Carolina a mere ghosts of it's intensity when it churned off the coast of South America as a Major Hurricane. The water pushed inland, far inland filling up every river basin in North Carolina covering farms, homes and towns as it flung itself onto land unable to make that turn away as the Hurricane Center had often predicted earlier that it would before going out to sea. Matthew's wet legacy just kept on coming, like a big, huge train unable to stop on a dime the way a fast sports car would be able to and that is common in such hurricanes. Nothing new under the Tropical Sun as they say.

Hurricane Florence, two years later, drenched the same region of the Carolinas with flooding rains and tremendous water damage as a mere shadow of itself, no longer a Cat 3 or 4 or 5 hurricane but one filled with rain, water and endless misery.

Matthew's track below.
Quite the traveler.


A wave that developed just before the Islands.
Sat on just off coast of South America...
...and had no problems with land interaction.

Below is Florence.
The Hurricane that refused to die.
A fish storm that kept swimming.
All the way across the ocean.


After being an intense Major Hurricane.
It reached it's destination as a shadow of itself.
And yet parts of the Carolinas are still cleaning up from it.


Old picture of Collins Avenue covered in sand.

Beware those long traveling storms.
Almost a hundred years earlier.. 
The 1926 Great Miami Hurricane shown below.


Obviously this started from a wave off of Africa.
Ship reports showed there was a West Indies Cyclone moving WNW.
That's what they called it then...
 And it slammed into Miami as a strong Category 4 hurricane.
And aside from the intense winds, it was a very wet hurricacne.
The streets flooded, sand covered Miami Beach.
From the Ocean to the Bay it was covered with sand.
Locals had to dig out their Model T Fords.


Wait for it to load, it's worth it ... because nothing like a real obituary of a hero of Miami beach.

A mere snippet of the story...



Rose Weiss, the "Mother of Miami Beach" attained that fame after practically single handledly forcing the dazed and confused survivors of the hurricane on Miami Beach to get out there and start cleaning the sand off the streets and cleaning up the mess the hurricane made. Rose walked up to Lincoln Road and into the offices of Carl Fisher where people had gathered, numb, in shock at the horrendous damage to their beautiful paradise and bullied everyone into getting out there and cleaning it up insisting Miami Beach would be better than it had been before. And, Rosie who grew up as child on Miami Beach was prophetic on that one as I don't even think that Carl Fisher could imagine how amazing Miami Beach would be in 2020.

Rose Weiss believed in Miami Beach, she knew it when it looked like this below from 1925 and it's still going strong. Buildings getting bigger, higher and really I love it but too many people for a mere mangrove Island in the Bay.


That's up near the Deauville.
A narrow part of the beach.
A place where the ocean meets the bay often...
...in a real hurricane!




Anyone who has ever driven to Miami Beach...
...across the Julia Tuttle Causeway knows this building.

I worked in that building.
I practically lived in that building at times.
It's called the Giller Building.
My kid's pediatrician was in that building.
I once had an After Prom Party there.. really.
My son briefly had an office there but that's a movie.
Giller and Giller Architects had offices in their building.
A family that survived the 1926 Hurricane...
.... how I don't really know. 
Sounds impossible but true.
And then he helped design a city.
Miami Beach was a paradise once again.


The water covered Miami Beach.
The raging ocean covered Miami Beach.
People survived, Norman Giller survived!
Went on to become an Architect....
.... that designed the future Miami Beach.

Understand, the people who survived the hurricane survived it by climbing up above the first floor of apartment buildings and watching as the water met the bay and covered all of South Beach. To this day it amazes me anyone survived that especially when you consider there were waves and storm surge as the waters were not just high but calm, they were a raging ocean. I interviewed a friend of my Grandfather who as a young boy remembers climbing up to the 3rd floor of an apartment building on 3rd Street at the tip of South Beach and watching waves battering the building. He remembered his father leaving the building to walk over to the services for Yom Kippur and having to come back because "there was so much rain the streets were flooding" but it wasn't flooding from the rain but the incoming storm surge of a strong Category 4 hurricane that covered the whole of Miami Beach and yet somehow, miraculously I'd add, some people survived while others died. Many died during the eye when they tried to make their way back to the mainland and the back side of the hurricane swept them off the causeway to a watery grave. Sounds melodramatic but very true. The 1926 Miami Hurricane is called that because it was indeed the real Miami Hurricane as Andrew made landfall further to the South sparing Downtown Miami from a disaster one cannot even imagine.

But Hurricane Betsy covered Miami Beach with sand also as did Andrew and many other storms over time. Miami Beach is basically a barrier island that was just a spit of land covered by mangroves that Miami people rowed over to in their boats for a picnic on Sunday before rowing back before dark while admiring dolphins and manatees in the water that was once crystal clear all the way to the bottom. Oh what a time it was... 

Look at it now!
High up above Lincoln Road.
Where my father had offices.
Where my son the architect loves to hang out.



Me, standing on top of the world of Miami Beach.


You can take the girl out of Miami Beach...
...but you can't take Miami Beach out of the girl.
You know why?
I got the sand in my toes ;)

Have a wonderful day.
When I go long on the Miami Hurricane...
...know tropical waves are rolling off of Africa.
And I see hurricanes on the horizon.

So prepare, do what you need to do.
And we will follow them step by step.
Advisory by advisory.

Sweet Tropical Dreams,
BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram.

Know that Twitter is mostly weather.
Instagram is weather and anything I love.
Don't say I didn't warn you,














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Tuesday, September 24, 2019

Updated 11 PM Tropical Storm & Jerry Still a Tropical storm. Lorenzo Forecast to be a Hurricane Wednesday


11 PM.
Not feeling well...
..can't believe I stayed up for 11 PM.
First off all Jerry still is a Tropical Storm.
Not doing well but talking on Karen tonight.

So that just happened.
NHC Discussion at 11 PM.
Explains odd movement of Karen today.

Video below shows a westward movement ...
...of storms.
There are swirls and centers.
Many said this all afternoon.
Now perhaps they will relocate the center.
Who knows what 5 AM will say.
Going to sleep.
The bottom line is the cone is the same.
Give or take, more or less.
Steering currents collapse at some point.



It's not a well stacked system.
Shear has been a problem.
It moved across PR.
Let's see what it does tomorrow.




Thanks for your patience...
Sweet tropical dreams

Keep reading if you did not do so already.
Like the Discussion tonight from NHC
It's a summary of Karen today.
Moving on now to tomorrow.
10 PM...

Late night tropical snack here...

There's much talk about what could be.
Interaction between Karen and Jerry.
In truth anything could happen.
But what will is hard to forecast.
Too many intangibles.

But when you hear people talking about Fujiwhara
2 storms circling each other...
....usually the stronger one wins.


When you use this NHC graphic.
That one of our favorite Carolina mets used.
You see how this really happens.
When storms collide.
Doesn't happen often ...the dance.
But it can.
Will it?
We will know soon enough.



Currently Karen is a 45 MPH Tropical Storm
Moving N at 8 MPH
Min Pressure 1005.

Keep that in mind when looking at models.
The big question is what will it be in 5 days?



I Tweeted this a while ago on Twitter.
This is my basis for what I want to say here.

1. Karen is now impacting Puerto Rico.
2. The track for the next 3 days is set.
3. The track beyond that is questionable.
4. Do not chase the end result of a 10 day model.
Adding in here Jerry is not doing well.

Yesterday it was thought Karen would be weak.
Jerry would be stronger.
Many thought that.
But today Karen is doing much better.
Jerry may not be there in 2 or 3 days.

NHC discussion refers to it as remnant low.
Sending planes in again to try and find a pulse.
That's a huge asterisk on the 5 PM Cone for Jerry.
Lorenzo far away currently..
..so going to talk on Karen.


Here we are currently.
Karen punching up over PR.
They are dealing with life threatening flood risks.
It's not Maria but even Karen can be problematic.

We see in this image below.
Karen is pulling it together.
It's getting more the look of a TS
Than a large messy rain shower.


It's possible a good part of it could...
...slip West of PR 
If so that would be a real win for PR.
Similar to Dorian.
But they are getting heavy weather NOW.

The Cone....
Breaking this up into 2 parts.


Looks very clear cut and high confidence.
Sometimes you need to ignore the 5 day part.



But see that shaded area is the 5th day Cone.
People in Miami only see the blue x part.
"oh my God it's headed to Miami..."
In Carolinas they see the Green part.
"Could this bust the ridge and ...."
Let's not forget Bermuda.
And note the yellow X..
Maybe the ridge is strong.
And it slides South slowly.

There are purple question marks ..
...because we aren't sure.

Check out how together those models are



36 hours out...good agreement.
And then the trouble begins.


Looks like a sideways Heart.
It loops.
It stalls.
It slides every which way .....

And I want you to understand this is days from now.

 Even the current 5 day forecast is far away.



Saturday evening i'ts not that close to Florida
And it could get there Saturday Night...
..and suddenly change directions.
Or keep going.

I think we should deal with the now.
You know it's there.
Should it intensify and be on the W side.
Prepare accordingly.

This is not Dorian.
Though it's a similar track.
That cannot be ignored.
So I'm more concerned on strength...
...then exact location 7 days out.
A tropical depression hitting SFL meh.. eh...
A Hurricane headed towards Bimini and FLL
That would be worrisome.
There's time to worry on that.......
.....if it's a Hurricane Headed West at 78 West.

Back to the NHC

Discussion is good and honest.

It deals with the now above.
It deals with the 4 to 5 day below



"uncertainty about when and how fast"
Regarding the ridge...
..regarding how Karen responds to the ridge.
the turn to the West... 
the 120 Hr position is
 a bit further South on this cone.

Being honest there are a lot of young mets and some older ones that love to scream "Landfall" online and spend hours showing you what each model will do and making a good case worthy of a court case for why the Euro is better than the GFS or why the ICON needs to be examined. It's interesting and yeah I enjoy thinking on the possibilities but then in 12 hours they make a new video or a new graphic and often there's a clickbait story telling you that the EAST COAST IS THREATENED BY KAREN ...or JERRY or Humberto or.... well you get the idea.

We need to always be vigilant... always stay on top of fast changes in the tropics and pay attention to trends in models but we need to stay in touch with reality and not start planning what to do because a possible Tropical Storm may threaten your home a week from now. BUT... you GOTTA have a plan always during hurricane season. Always pay attention, be ready to move into action especially as Homegrown Storms pop up often. 

But before we are sure what Karen will do it's important to see if Jerry is still there and if so how strong is Jerry, because if old models were fed data that was wrong on Jerry's location and intensity it matters in how the models portray the future. 

So let's pray for Puerto Rico not to take such a bad hit and hope Virgin Islands don't get more than they expect the way they did Dorian and let's hope once Karen is up in those warm waters North of PR moving slowly as the ridge puts pressure on it's forward movement that Karen doesn't become more than we bargained for because Karen always seems to surprise us at the wrong moment; Trinidad is an example and PR is getting a stronger storm than it looked like it would get last night.

Check out the NHC at 11 PM and stay tuned... 

Taking a break here as I've been under the weather and tired of looping and need some rest. Things change fast in the tropics especially when there are 3 systems relatively close together.


That naked swirl North of Karen is Jerry.
Last night it was battling shear.
Now it's battling to stay alive.
Where would Karen go ...
...if Jerry wasn't an entity?
Maybe same way... 
... maybe not.
Stay tuned.
And follow the NHC...
...they are trying hard to get it right.
For all of us.

* * * 
From 9 AM...
keep reading if you did not do so.
Thanks

Putting a video here below
..and another at the bottom.
Keep them in mind while reading discussion below.

And keep in mind new models.
Again models are always running.
Always changing.
Never trust one model run....
...unless it's 48 hours out.

Karen...
.... wait this out til it's N of PR.
Take them with lots of salt.
They are pasta....
...you can't eat pasta without sauce.
Or butter or olive oil or salt.


Jerry smashed but not giving up.
Jerry really doesn't want to go out to sea.
But eventually... it should.
That's where Lorenzo come in.
Days from now.



New models above compare with below.
But know... they too will change.
Water vapor really shows the future well.

Water vapor loop. Turn sound up Note I said remnants. It’s remnant moisture blown off of Jerry being sheared forcing Jerry to stop. Then he’s trapped. Tropical Drama. Ridge protecting East Coast. Then #Karen hits the ridge. https://t.co/vZ3Rogvgxa pic.twitter.com/RxG9gwkyog


Wow look at Tropical Storm Karen.
Round, bulked up.
Detention seems to have worked.
Puerto Rico in it's path.
But talking rain here more than strong winds.
But rain for PR causes mud slides.
Flash flooding.
So that's not good.
Could be worse obviously.


Note from this radar image.
And other sat images.
Karen has two parts.
It's not perfectly stacked.
Perhaps the on the West....
...actually aims for the Mona Passage.
Every model this year wanted to go there.
But just look it as one messy storm.
Rain storm, tropical rain.
Some high winds.

Jerry is up there East of the Carolinas.
Blasted apart last night by shear.
How it's even there ...
...don't know.

Video from last night.



Lorenzo off Africa moving West.
Put it in motion.
That's how I feel inside when looping.
Or running too many models.

GOES16-TAW-13-900x540.gif (900×540)

I truly don't know why the world is jiggly.
But leaving it there as it's how I feel.
I'm sure there's some reason.
But it seems to work for Karen.
Tropical Storm again.
Kind of steals the show this morning

Models kind of look like scribble scrabble.
So goes with the jiggly sat loop.


Cone below.


Jerry below....
...forecast to go out to sea.
That's what the NHC says.



But models do get strange at the end.
So maybe loops?
Or swirls or turns around...
..then goes out to sea.
When Lorenzo moves on the scene.
Maybe... 
...time will tell.

Lorenzo, beautiful in form.
Far away out there.
Note all the systems are kind of...
...converging together.


Forecast to turn and go out to sea.
Does it grab what's left of Jerry ....
...as a kind of traveling companion?

Or does Karen make a grab for Jerry?

This has become an interesting drama.
Models change hourly.
Somewhere one is always running.

The ridge is forecast to build in.
It's strong, it's reinforced.
It's hot where it's not supposed to be.
And then it will not... be hot.
Cool air will surge down eventually.

Cyclones really do flip the switch.
That's why they often ramp up...
..at the equinox.
When the Seasons collide.

Again a summary from the beautiful..
..Mimic Loop.



The issue is here that for now the high pressure being constantly reinforced from the North holding the Southeast hostage with summer like weather is trapping anything tropical from moving towards a date with the East Coast. Hopefully that holds in place and if so we lose any chance of landfall, if things change watch out. And that set up doesn't help if anything forms in the Caribbean or Gulf of Mexico and makes a lunge North from a different location. Time will tell as currently nothing has formed there but this time of year it's where we watch for trouble as we move towards October. And, the storms approaching the East Coast begin to get scooped up by cold fronts moving down once the huge, high pressure ridge goes away. That does happen eventually so it's just a matter of days. Lorenzo may help flip that switch and then fronts may begin to sweep down with cooler air again.

It's a dance we do every fall along with buying Pumpkin Spice Lattes and eating Pumpkin Cream Sandwich cookies from Trader Joe's ya know...

I'll update this afternoon. The planes are flying through Karen trying to make sense of her center and associated convection that's moving as one towards Puerto Rico. Maybe they will relocate her or maybe not. Karen is a mystery to all of us. Jerry is trying to regroup, there's parts of Jerry everywhere as Jerry was hit with shear like you can't imagine but loops from last night tell that story. As always Lows go towards Lows and High Pressure blocks Lows that usually turn away but stubborn Jerry stood his ground for hours last night, while Karen got her groove back in the Caribbean.  And what does Lorenzo do? Check back later this afternoon!



Oh and oddly PR had a strong earthquake just to the North of it offshore, directly IN the track for Karen so what's up with that? When it rains it pours and the ground quakes? Not normal but happened so mentioning it.

Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram.

Ps... not saying not to watch them or forget they are there, never ever forget a cyclone is out there as things are fluid in the atmosphere and sometimes shear forecasts do flip flops so watch but don't worry but don't eat all your hurricane supplies just yet... hurricane season isn't over until the end of November. 

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Monday, September 23, 2019

5 PM. Karen Demoted to TD. Tho Forecast to be a TS Again Down the Tropical Road. Yellow Circle Near the Yucatan. My Mermaid Area...2 PM Tropical Storm Lorenzo Forms! Jerry King of the Road, Karen Questions.. So Many Questions About Karen ... Models Getting Funky.


 5 PM.
Live Blogging huh?
Going to take a break.
As I said below... not much has changed.
Tropical Storm Karen was demoted.
Kind of as expected.
How much foreshadowing can the NHC do?
How many planes can be sent it to find...
...what isn't there.

Note they forecast it to be a TS again.
After it moves through the Islands.
And when it turns West towards Florida.
So will Karen reform?
Maybe.
Stay tuned.
Interesting tropical drama.

Good graphics in one tweet so using it.
Good to follow always.
Seems the planes kept looking...
...but as the song goes.
There was nothing at all.
TD not TS for now.
Karen in time out this afternoon...
...cone though the same.
And many cities in it's Wind Probs.
See cones below.




4:30
I like to put things up before the 5 PM advisory.
That way it's my thoughts and perhaps.
Explains what the 5 PM is showing.

Details matter.
So does timing.
And the whole issue right now is timing.
Intensity questions persist on Karen.
Models are funny.
Consistently delivering tropical rain to SFL.

3 Players right now.
Don't forget Lorenzo out there.
Looking beautiful but not near us.

What's odd is models see different things.
Some keep Karen an entity.
Other's lose Karen than Karen comes back.
Some see something by the Yucatan.
Earthnull actually sees Karen well.
Go figure on that one.

Not easy being NHC.
They have to answer to the public.
And to their superiors.
They are the bottom line.

When models don't make much sense.
I watch the water vapor loop and MIMIC.
And wait til the next model run.

GOES16-TAW-13-900x540.gif (900×540)

There's Jerry center stage.
Karen pulses up and down.
Remember when Jerry did that?
Jerry did it drove everyone crazy.
They seem to be cut from the same cloth.
Near the tip of the Yucatan...
A red dot pops up.
Models don't really see much there.
And Lorenzo far away and beautiful.
I hate to tell you that you have to wait another day.
But it's true.
Karen may be a player...
...or it may be nothing at all.
Yet Karen has been a player.
And players don't like to die...
...but sometimes they play dead.
You know like playing possum...
And then they jump up and come back to life.
When the time is right.
And the shear calms down.

This song is stuck in my head



I made 2 videos.
Think on them when the 5 PM comes out.
And I'll update this evening.
Much to do here and I'm not feeling it.
Something is off...
..something is missing.
Soon we will see it.

I try to keep these to a minute.
Just some thoughts while watching the WV Loop.





Lorenzo discussion.
Not to be forgotten.
Just currently so much drama with Jerry and Karen.





2 PM
Tropical Update... Tropical Outlook.



This yellow circle has popped up.
I've been talking on it all morning.
Alluding to it last night.

Last night I posted this video.
What bothered me was....
...the tremendous amount of convection.
From the Yucatan across the Straits.
With that set up something was up...
1... something could form there.
2... It could impact the track of other storms.



Then I tweeted about it this morning.
It's persisted for way more than 12 hours.
Actually since yesterday moisture has been there.
I made a playful post about a mermaid in the GOM.
Today I posted a picture in a collage.
A reminder that the mermaid may...
...want to play ball.


This is the Tweet from last night.


And the loop discussion that goes with that.
Note I said last night Karen may become an open wave.
Or a weak disturbance perhaps?
If it cannot hold onto TS status.




Breaking it up into parts below.
Something is there, round and anchored.
High to the North.
Kind of trapped a bit currently.


Over and near hot water.


And though the NHC shows formation to the West.
The moisture flow from Jerry is feeding into it.
Much the way Imelda was fed by Humberto..


Rain predictions have been high in that region.
For the next 5 days so you can't blame that on Karen.
So what's causing?
Looking at the satellite image below.


Moisture streaming off of Jerry....
High to the North.
This area looks better than Karen.
Yes, I said that.
And I'll update later.
But the NHC just put a yellow dot.
On my area I've been talking about.


But my issue here is this.
Yes it could form.
But what if Karen falls apart?
Convection wandering around.... 
...possibly off track from the TS Cone?
And Jerry hits a wall of high pressure.
What pulls a system towards Florida?
Vs saying being trapped and looping.
Waiting for the ridge to break?
The only thing that would pull it is...
...if there was low pressure to the West.
And now we see what that might be.

Stay tuned, looking at models at 4 ish.



Lorenzo is finally official!



Note they show say they are being conservative.
I'd give it easy chances of being a Major out at sea.


Showing Jerry first as ...
...there have been questions on it's track.
Long term.


Note they don't slow it down at the end.
Odd... But they bend it a bit South of East.
Will see what they do at 5 pm.
Imagine they like everyone else....
...is waiting on the next model runs.
More on that down deep in the blog.
This is just a 11 AM update.

And Karen remains a question mark.



You can find Karen below....
...down below Jerry.
2 red dots flaring up.
Lorenzo solid red dot far out there.

GOES16-TAW-13-900x540.gif (900×540)

Here's our satellite loop for the day.
Monday Morning.
Jerry bright and colorful East of Florida.
Waiting for his ticket to ride ...out to sea.
But does Jerry have a surprise for us?
Some models say it's possible.
I mean goes out to sea and then...
....oh what's that all about.


Hmnnn...Remember Karen is down below.
And there's a high pressure ridge building in.

Karen down there somewhere below.
Bits of red and gold.
Sort of like the beginning of Fall.
That officially began today.
Turn your AC down to 69...
...then you'll feel it!!

And off in the East Atlantic is Lorenzo


Models as always from Mike's Spaghetti Models.

Mike's King of the Tropical Road at 9:19 AM.
Listening to him as soon as I'm done here.
I try not to listen or read too much of others...
....before I write in the morning so I stay fresh.
Well... I read the NHC discussion.
So remember Karen is the big question.

Discussion this morning basically is on whether or not Karen survives as a Tropical Storm or gets downgraded to a Tropical Depression. The NHC has put the TD word into their foreshadowing early morning discussion and they are opening the door for that action if Karen doesn't step up to the plate and do something fast to change that eventuality. And, Karen is a big question mark that hangs over the East Coast as many models (as well as the NHC discussion) hold out the possibility that once past PR it may strengthen again; well unless it dies completely. So, today is a day to see what Karen really has and what she does not have... that being a real center with Tropical Storm force winds. Easy money is on a downgrade soon but a possible upgrade in the near future, however I wouldn't bet money on Karen just yet.


As for Jerry as much as it looks like he wants to bust North he is held down by a huge high pressure, yet he pushes against the tide nonstop and you can see this in his current satellite imagery but Jerry has generally held onto to mediocre but there status and stubbornly flares up just when needed to keep the attention of the NHC. It should go out to sea eventually.


Jerry is kind of like King of the Road here ...
....the only really clear cut winner.
Visible easily.


Another view...
Note explosion of convection in Karen.
There is some connection there still.
At times it's connected to Jerry.
At times Karen looks like she leaving Jerry.
So much drama.
Karen may not want to let Jerry go?
Who knows.
Foreshadowing.
Waiting for more models to vote.


Is Jerry looping back?
Keep that in mind when you hear
"out to sea....."
Out to sea but for how long?
Fall Storms often loop.
We are officially into Fall.


Well Mike on Spaghetti Models.
Calls him Juicy Jerry.
Maybe Karen likes that...or not.
Note it's flaring up on the NE side today.
Hmmmn drama..

Speaking of Mike...
..wore his shirt yesterday.
Went to the Flea Market.
Before it becomes the State Fair in October.
Back to the tropical discussion below.
Picture at the bottom ;)

What is interesting is that Karen looks kind of like an appendage to Jerry's tail in this satellite imagery here. Like the tail grew a pimple, or maybe I'm thinking of some Adam's Rib joke but if Karen redevelops it might not be so funny as it may be the trouble Jerry leaves behind as the strong heat ridge once known as Indian Summer in the old days is hanging over the Southeast like one last kiss from Summer before we move finally into Fall. What worries me here is that often Fall and cooler weather is ushered in by some late season hurricane that flips that switch as if it's saying "Lord do I have to do everything by myself!!" and then the hurricane passes inland, the cool air ushers down and people begin to miss what they have been bitching about that being the good old warm days of summer.


But everyone loves Fall right? I do finally, it took a while I will admit, but yeah Fall in the Carolinas is beautiful and football is on the scene as Baseball begins to move towards it's eventual climax and trees lose their leaves one by one and we look longingly towards our first winter snow. In South Florida people longingly look for a cold front and wince knowing snowbirds will be arriving soon.

And that's the way it goes on today the official beginning of Fall, as the Autumn Equinox is today so if you want to do any Fall mischief such as eating pumpkin ice cream or having a Pumpkin Spice Frappe (too hot for lattes) today is your day. Maybe start a new diary or begin a to do list or a Vision Board for Fall. Plan out your Halloween Party and hope that no hurricane is going to come as a surprise guest. We went to the State Fair Grounds yesterday that hosts the NC State Flea Market every month of the year except October when the Fair comes to town. Lots of old toys, yard stuff on sale and Trader Joe's was sampling Pumpkin everything yesterday.



Does Karen want to play ball with Jerry?
Does Jerry want to play ball with Karen.
And what about Lorenzo??

BOTTOM LINE... 
Jerry....doing what Jerry always does, just enough to stay alive.
Karen...a mystery still as to it's current condition and a question mark on the future.
Lorenzo now officially a Tropical Storm forecast for now to go out to sea gracefully.

Will Lorenzo go out to sea gracefully? Maybe.
Will Karen survive? I'd say there's a better chance down the road it's still there than not.
Will Jerry go out to sea... the NHC is sure of it. But will Jerry stay out at sea or ...
...come back for Karen?

Take the day to to what you love doing the most, if you got the time... and if not dream on it a bit when you have a moment to rest. Do not throw out the Hurricane Supplies if you live in South Florida or the Gulf of Mexico states (Alabama included) and if you live further Up North you know what to do with them... hold onto them for Winter Weather and possible Ice Storms.

Images below. I'll do a video later today and some model discussion, but still waiting to see what happens today with Karen before saying more on that. I think Karen has more of a kick than is visible on satellite imagery creating much drama down in the Islands, it's visible on Earthnull for the first time from far away so I'd vote she stays around in some form or another for a bit longer.

 

While not the best signature.
I can see something is there.
Yesterday I could not.
Karen needs to lift it it wants to survive.
Lift or ooze on other and reform it's center.
Karen needs to let Jerry go...


Ironically Karen and Lorenzo 
Have the similar barometric pressure.
Totally different satellite signature but ti's true.
At 11 AM they lowered Lorenzo's a drop.
As it is now a Tropical Storm.


See a tail of 2 storms.
Both had 1007 MB at 5 AM.
Karen had 40 MPH in theory..
... TD13 became Lorenzo.
That was a done deal.


Gotta love the NHC for headlines.
Sounds like a new Fall Drama on ABC!



And of course Karen's ultimate track is a question.
Almost looks like a question mark doesn't it?
Know there are watches and warnings up...
..for the Islands as Karen is forecast to move over them.
While worrying on Florida remember ...
...there's more to Karen's track than that.

According to the NHC...
...for the foreseeable five days.
 Lorenzo going out to sea.




Let's revisit that in 3 or 4 days.
As models this year have been infamous..
..for surprise drama.
Oh and Lorenzo expected to be a Hurricane.
I'd guess they are too low.
May be a Major.
Keep watching.




So there you go a long Monday Morning old fashioned BobbiStorm Blog. Words, maps, discussion, being a bit too silly and offering life suggestions (vision board or football, your call) and I'll add some music in at the end as always. Bit poetic and creative today on the first official day of Fall. I'll do a video or two later, and we will see what the NHC finds out from their Karen Investigation and we will see if Karen tries to reform or not. Stay tuned. So many questions up the road as high pressure building in (sadly, it's hot here) and that high pressure could block Karen (if Karen is still there) from going out to sea. Maybe Karen wobbles or loops or stalls or hauls off to try and do one or two of the beach cities in Florida and I depending on how strong that high pressure ridge is I wouldn't count out Cuba (think Irma) so stay tuned. Check back later and as always follow me on Twitter and Instagram. I post to Instagram but I'm generally on Twitter all day if I'm awake checking it while doing other things.

Know the new models are showing some odd things. Talk on Fujiwara by a few models but that's really out there, can Karen and Jerry leave each other alone is the question? I'll post some cute tango dance later maybe, who knows. Really....who knows, that's the main bottom line today. As always don't eat the hurricane supplies and check back here later.

Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram.



Ps... as the long time readers of this blog know.. I love Nat King Cole.. no one like him. My Grandma Mary played this song on her piano all the time, grew up with it and love it.



Love the pictures here, it's true every leaf becomes a flower in Fall.
And North Carolina Fall is beautiful........ though I may be in Maryland for part of it.

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