Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Tuesday, January 15, 2019

OH MY GOODNESS.... WINTER GOING TO COME BACK !!! Happy MLK Day on the Real Day Not the Weekend.



This basically began yesterday in ernest.
Headlines on Twitter showing SNOW and ICY weather coming!


The Polar Vortex is being unleashed!!
Yeah........ Winter is back!
My AC is off and my heat is back on!!
The beach a week ago was nice........
.... I didn't go outside today in Raleigh. Brrr...

Tonight's blog is a prelude to real discussion.
I want to show a variety of news and tweets.
The real news today was in California...
Dabuh knew that!
If there's a beach he's watching the surf.
And the weather.... he's a great weather watcher!


Prayers indeed as you will see deeper down in the blog.

Weather is locational and whether you live in Maine or Miami you have different priorities with regard to what you wish for......  and in this case be careful what you wish for....   Note the REAL storm is going on NOW in California but the East Coast, as always, thinks this is all about them and whether NYC or Boston gets Snow. The South looks longingly at the snow models wishing the system would take the more Southern track so that we could see some snow flakes falling and dusting our Carolina Pines. There is a middle part of the country, though to be fair they got the last snow storm AND Jim Cantore so they have plenty of stories to tell of the Winter of 2019!


I gotta warn you there's a lot of hype going on right now, because that's all we have is hype and models and watching the satellite loops. Speaking of models the Canadian is really on to something or just being the Canadian over amping every system and bringing snow to Cuba. It's worth noting it DID snow in Cuba in 1857 so I suppose it's not impossible. The EURO and the GFS (choose your version of it) do not show snow for Havana or Miami so you can breathe a bit and get out your favorite boots for weather diving down for one night into the 40s!

And the usual mets are having fun with this because to be honest we had one wild winter storm in November, a January thaw in December and now in January winter is showing up again on the models. And it seems this one will really do the trick and usher in some Arctic Air down into the US all the way down to .... Key West and do NOT laugh as Key West is an island in the middle of the Florida Straits and when a cold front breezes in across the water it gets down right chilly!


Yoda knows.... 

In truth though California IS having WEATHER NOW!
Yet you wouldn't know it from my feed ....
...that is heavily weighted to the Hurricane cities & Seattle.

There's a Blizzard warning up for the Sierras!


California is like the song....
I've lived there....
First comes fire and then the rain comes....
...and the mud runs down the hills.
It's one disaster after another... 


In Santa Barbara there was crazy wind damage. 


High Surf Warnings up the coast of California.


If you live in LA.........
........don't let your garbage cans float away!


But on the East Coast everyone is ready!!!
North Carolina and Virginia are waiting... 
NC won the November storm lotto...
VA stole last week's storm.
What will be with this next storm?



Allan Huffman is as reliable as it gets.
He's watching the models and we are listening.



In my mind it's going to Carolina......


No it's not really going to Carolina, not this week's storm.
But I'm driving North for the cold, frigid week down the road.
So I know I'll see snow one way or the other soon...

You heard about the 10 year challenge on Facebook?
30 years plus and James Taylor is still singing.
My best friend loves him.
Took me a long time to enjoy him again.
I can finally listen and smile.

What do you love?
Who do you love?
You love snow or hate it?
Doesn't matter.... 
...you get what you get.
Mother Nature's in charge of this one.
I know... Polar Vortex (rolling eyes)


Yah we have all these great terms these days....
........to describe Winter.


Love reading Cranky's BLOG.


Note there is a 2 part harmony here going on.
The storm THIS week........
.... the BIG storm next week!
Cranky likes to Tweet.
He loves to Blog.... 
Read his blog and then read it twice.


I know you want to know if Philly is gonna get snow.
SMH.......

Definite maybe.


Everyone's chasing after snow......


Or complaining about shoveling it!

And everyone who is Tweeting is ......
.....updating every few hours.
As models come and models go.
Soon we will really know.
Compare the below tweet with the above one.


A man of few words has this to say on the cold.



A man of many words and great wisdom is Larry Cosgrove.
You really need to follow him!






Yes Weather Twitter is a buzz and buzzing louder than transformers or swarms of freezing bees. What do I think? What do I know? When you have a period of warm weather deep in December you have to know that winter is going to come back with a vengeance. It's like during hurricane season when it's slow and early waves give it up to Saharan Dust and Shear at the Gateway of the Caribbean and you think there won't be any hurricanes and then Mother Nature is back with a bite and Twitter begins buzzing with innuendo and rumors and people act as if the world is coming to an end and on air news people say things like "unprecedented Arctic Invasion as the Polar Vortex is blasting it's way down into Florida" and you worry Aquaman is going to freeze and Lex Luthor finally discovered a weather machine that will control Earth's weather and then you remember Spring will come again. Kids enjoy the snow, parents shiver and shovel the snow and someone gets sleet which is about as annoying as rainy days and Mondays. 

So as for me I'm going to enjoy whatever we get this week and wonder on what weather I'll see in New York City next week as I'm scheduled to be there then. There's highs and lows near zero if the extremists are right and if it moderates in the teens... time will tell.

As for tonight, enjoy this song and know I love it...... really as much as the oldie goldies are great this song is perfect and note .... he uses weather because how can you show a love song without some kind of weather??



Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter

Ps... Don't say I didn't blog and as always I hoping you get the weather you dream about!

I'll be back with real hard data on what to expect from the storm after this storm and how frigid the temperature will be and just how low that freeze line will go. I suggest you familiarize yourself with the winter links on Mike's fantastic www.spaghettimodels.com as he's a guy for all seasons ;)








Labels: , , , , , , , , , , ,

Monday, January 07, 2019

Monday. New Week. New Models. Possible Snow Storm in the Wings. Keep Watching for it to ... Come Together


Quick post on the upcoming week and the week that was and how it's all connected. It's been warm and mild (though rainy) in the Carolinas this January despite every person who predicted a colder than normal winter we have yet to see it really take control. In November we had an early winter storm that much like an early May hurricane got everyone excited while many know that early May storms happen in slow hurricane seasons. Time will tell as always. There's a lot to deal with as there are two Jet Streams and they need to come together and hook up with Arctic Air to really get us there.


Yesterday it was hot, sunny and flirting with a high of 70 degrees so being the good Capricorn I am I figure if life gives you lemons make pink lemonade and enjoy it. So we went to the beach, Wrightsville Beach in particular as it's the closest beach to Raleigh and there's much to do in Wilmington while there. There is nothing like a Carolina Beach really and I've seen a lot of beaches from Seattle to LA to Maine to Miami. They are peaceful, family oriented more than most and filled with a sense of peace and a beauty all their own. The beach in the off season is always preferable to the busiest days of summer. Except for a spattering of blue tarps (not many) and the sea oats being thinned out you couldn't tell Florence had ever been there.... go figure. Florence was more a stuck rain storm and flooding event than Michael that sandblasted North Florida beaches leaving them looking as if a nuclear bomb went off in places from storm surge and wicked winds. It will take North Florida a long time to look as if Michael had never been there. I will say I noticed the hanging moss took quite a hit in Wilmington much the way Matthew pruned the hanging moss in Savannah. Life goes on at the beach.


There I am looking for a shell I liked.
Planted there, not moving til I found it.
I took off the leggings and put them back on.
Wrapped a sweater around me in case I needed it.
The pier is windier and colder than the beach.
Nuff said. It was warm but the wind was chilly.
The water was cold but not as cold as usual in January.
I walked barefoot in and out of the water.
It was glorious.


On Twitter people argued a lot it seems.
I missed it as I was at the beach.......
When there is no winter in winter...
...weather people get a little nuts.
When it's hurricane season and it's slow...
... people get very nasty and fight.
Weather people need weather like....
...I seem to need to see the ocean.

Luckily the models are tossing us possibilities.
It's going to be Mid January this weekend.
If not now when?



A voice I trust very much.
Before I lived here I followed him for hurricanes.
He's good, very good.
Further North you go the better chance of snow.
As always Raleigh is on the edge.


Always and forever ...
...seriously!
So I look to see what Allan Huffman has to say..


And Cranky brings it all together as usual.
He knows winter storms.
Does well with hurricanes but well...
...he is more in the heart of the winter world than me.
So you may want to read his blog.



NY/NJ/NE do they get a real winter storm?
How about the Carolinas........
As always great folksy advice from Chick ;)
When I suggested bourbon in my French Toast...


It's a winter thing you buy eggs and bread and milk.
French Toast for Snow Storms in the Carolinas.

Will it all come together?
Keep watching.
Time will tell.



Til then keep watching the models, enjoy real weather discussion on Twitter for a change and the possibility that we may be able to wear any new winter clothes or boots before we have to put them away for summer.

Besos BobbiStorm

Ps....and until then another Allan is right we will be watching the models and what all of our favorite weather people have to say. Speaking of models I'll be spending a whole lot of time on www.spaghettimodels.com


For one of my favorite people round here.... Yeah I want weather, I want weather bad and this winter has been a bit crazy and the crazier the better when it comes to weather so yeah... I want a crazy, Carolina winter snow storm and to talk endlessly about it online. And, I'll be in NYC in late January so figure I can see snow either way then .... (seen long range models) and early February in Florida so need winter weather NOW in January but either way...... grateful for short sleeves weather in January and the beautiful beach... but love a good ending with snow falling ;) Got home in time to collapse into bed under the covers cause when the sun goes down in the Carolinas in Winter it does get cold and watch the Golden Globes. Yay! :)

Labels: , , , , , , , , , , ,

Friday, January 04, 2019

EPAC Special Tropical Statement. Questions on El Nino and Winter of 2019 Abound... Stay Tuned for Surprises! Weather These Days is Like the Stock Market...

Eastern Pacific
January 2019



Putting this into the blog today and talking about it because anything that happens out of the ordinary needs discussing and bears watching. Yes I said bear.. it's kind of an old joke to some of us.. but true. And we are all watching the Stock Market even if we don't have money invested as we all have interests that it could affect down the line. The same with a system like this in that what happens there doesn't remain there it gets caught up in the flow. So yes...there's a circle in the Eastern Pacific and the National Hurricane Center decided to put out a Special Tropical Statement about it in January.


Orange circle up.
Discussion below.


Yes I know it's January.
Yes they start earlier than the Atlantic.
But rarely this early.
But weather happens.
Climate is the long term average.
Out of season development can happen.

Regardless of development....
Gale Force Winds likely over the weekend!

Why do we care?
What begins there....
...often ends up here.
Here being the East Coast.



That flow.... 
The signature of the last month.


Put it in motion:

sat_wv_east_loop-12.gif (640×512)

Moisture caught in the flow...
A pattern seemingly stuck.
But is it?



I've spoken about this with a few of my friends lately in that it seems despite all the headlines and comments made we are in a strange time with mixed signals weather wise. There's a lot of volatility going on both in the market and in the weather world. We had an extremely cold winter like period during the fall in November where we had surprise snow storms in New York and Raleigh got a nice sampling of the winter stuff.... however December rolled in with warmer temperatures (that were forecast) and all we've seen is rain, rain and more rain. Raleigh broke records in 2018 for rainfall totals due to a wet year and two hurricanes that dumped huge amounts of tropical rain on us and now deeper into Winter we have rain from a moist subtropical flow. Where do we go from here? Oklahoma City has had warm temperatures yet they cooled off enough to get snow, freezing rain and sleet yesterday finally. Snow lovers there better be happy. But, the snow is going to melt fast the way it did here in Raleigh as temperatures rose fast into the 60s following the snow. Sound a bit like the stock market?



El Nino is constantly being discussed and I mean constantly on any given day in the weather world. As I have said nonstop here online for old timers no two El Ninos are the same and no two hurricane seasons are the same. The variance in the weather patterns as the Northern Jet hands off to the Southern Jet to where they both meet up for a quick fling and then go back to doing their thing defines what our weather is like on a day to day basis on the East Coast.

Add in a big player that produces gale force winds over the weekend and a big sloppy storm into California and that impacts weather in every city from California to New Jersey down the weather road. The big player that seemingly is in hiding is the flow that dips down from the Arctic and until that sleeping bear wakes up we are in for more wet, wicked, unseasonably warm winter rain patterns. As usual when it's warm here it's cold in Europe and it's snowing in Greece as I type this where my brother lives. Weather in the South Atlantic was so problematic a few days ago they rerouted my other brother's cruise ship to a different port. When we don't have the usual suspects on the weather map we often end up with unusual weather. So keep watching. Make sure those weather apps are activated as I'm getting the sense more and more that we may end up with some surprise weather on the East Coast somewhere. There's also a huge area off the East coast producing high surf in some places. And the beat goes on... 


Personally I agree.
Something bothering me too..
Questions that will get answers soon.


May you have an awesome weekend! Don't believe those constant long term predictions of snow that get pushed off every day to a later date on your weather apps but do believe the weather app when it says tornadoes or severe weather or fog may show up in your designated area in the next six to twelve hours. Pay attention!

Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter... follow me there for fast weather updates.

Ps.... a chaser chases and when there is a lack of hurricanes or snow to chase they chase whatever is interesting. Mike chased fog last night on Facebook and his viewers were excited to see him go live. And the fog that was ghost like indeed on the field near where he lives lit up by bright lights was enchanting to watch. Make sure you follow him on Facebook... Lord only knows where that boy will show up when he's reading to chase someone or something or some kind of weather ;)https://www.facebook.com/mikesweatherpage/


Labels: , , , , , , , , , , , , ,