2018 was a Busy El Nino. 2013 a Slow Year Not an El Nino. Hurricane Florence Found a Way to Stay Away from El Nino Shutting Down the Carib. Always Stay Prepared!

 

Just some quick thoughts on weather today and as we move towards Hurricane Season. 

First off, Hurricane Season begins on June 1st whether it's a busy season or a quiet season. It's kind of like Football Season. If you are a Miami Dolphin fan it begins on time with a schedule of games and whether they win somehow or lose over and over it's still Football Season. Except when the Fins lose you are upset, rant online or insist you will stop following them or go to the game away and watch the sad, sorry show because you're a die hard Dolphin fan! For Hurricane Researchers and Trackers we watch day by day and if it's slow, quiet it's still Hurricane Season!

2013 Hurricane Season

Hurricane Season always produces named storms. Some years they struggle to get a name, and struggle harder to maintain the name. Take 2013 for example, it produced lots of weak storms that had problems keeping their Mojo going. Ironically, 2013 was not even an El Nino year as there are many factors that can inhibit development besides El Nino. Around storm chasers we do not even whisper the year 2013, but many others were celebrating the calm in the eye of the hurricane season.

Ironically 2018 was as El Nino year! And, yes while the deep SW Carib did stay fairly quiet, Mother Nature found a way to hit the Carolinas by keeping Florence high up in latitude as she crossed the entire Atlantic from Africa where she began as a tropical wave with a plan. I was at some point early on sure she was going to go the distance. No matter what negative conditions she encountered she kept on going, avoiding the Carib ruled by El Nino shear and slammed into the Carolinas. Michael, late in the season, started from a weak area of convection down by the tip of the Yucatan and suddenly there was model discussion and arguing on X and WHAM it slammed into Florida as a Cat 5 punctuation mark to a season that many expected to be quiet.

Check that ACE out.

I am simply saying we are 22 days away from Hurricane Season. Shop when you see specials, hide snacks where no one will find them and prepare as you do every year. Hope and pray the forecasts for a strong El Nino are correct, but forecasts can often be busted and sometimes a storm like Florence will avoid areas hostile in El Nino years and do wild and strange things.

That's a track you rarely see.

But happens.

No one is marked SAFE during Hurricane Season..

...until holiday decorations are up

And November 30th is over!

Hope for the best.

But never rely on early season promises....

And alwaysfollow the advice of the NHC.

To start with follow their Hurricane Prep advice!

I doubled checked with Google AI

I mean Bertha sure shows up a lot....

.... hasn't been retired yet!

Ps what it didn't mention was 1996 was also Bertha.

What's in a name?

1st of 3 storms to hit NC.

Stay tuned....

...weather evolves in real time.

El Nino should lower our number of storms....

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on X

Have this song stuck in my mind today.

Why? Don't know...

Love for your Mother

Love for your Aunt, Grandma...

..and best friend!

Or just the one you love.... 

Celebrate love always

• 
  

May. So Much to Say. Prepare for Hurricane Season. Best Advice. El Nino No Guarantee U Won't Get a Hurricane! And Why?

Short on time today and yet I feel it's important to try and get across the idea that even in a weak hurricane season, your home town can be rocked and set back in time while it's being put back together for a long time to come.  The 1921 Hurricane Season, far from a Super El Nino, but never the less there were less storms and yet one of the most impactful hurricanes in Tampa Bay made landfall in that year. Infact, Tampa Bay is more likely to be hit in a quiet year, than a busy year so keep that in mind. 

Odds are a strong El Nino there are less hurricanes. Less hurricanes lower your chances of being impacted, but they do not promise you won't see a named hurricane.

Why?

Honestly Mother Nature, even in 2026, is hard to pin down to exactitudes. Friends in Montana and family in Colorado had Spring like weather throughout the depths of Winter. They sent pics of a "dusting of snow" recently the way people in the Carolinas are excited to see a dusting of snow in the Piedmont areas. And, then in May suddenly Mother Nature delivers a knock out punch with heavy snow on top of trees that not only budded but were filled with leaves.

El Nino can shut down the SW Carib, yet enhance offshore development near Florida (actually on either side) and close in development ups the ante for landfalls. 

Heat Domes 

can create a set up where low pressure forms to the South in the hot water of the Gulf. The water in the Gulf and close in becomes very hot during long, reinforced heat waves. And, early in the season frontal boundaries dangling in hot water have a way of trying to twist and spin. Big messy tropical rains early in the Season can overwhelm coastal towns and the Miami area has horrific drainage in such set ups. 

SAL gets a vote. 

MDR water temperatures get a vote.

The Loop Current gets a vote. 

Surprise events such as Denver's May Snow Storm after mild, summer like hiking weather for months should be a lesson to how fast the atmosphere can flip, sort of the way the stock market as been this year. Sudden spikes after sudden drops. The UP and down nature of 2026 has been a signature. 

So you do what you need to do. You have one job. Buy Supplies on sale when you have money in small amounts. Because if you don't and suddenly you are in Cone close in you may not have the money to buy them as you decided to take a cheap cruise to the Bahamas or blew it on Disney. 

I know people who buy supplies at places such as Target that allow long term returns. I'm not saying that's the coolest thing to do, but it's a thought and it's better than nothing.

Remember Droughts are most often busted by a wet hurricane.

African Wave Train has begun...

...have you begun preparing?

Start with making a list...

To Buy

To Do

Something to think on....

..Sweet Tropical Dreams,

BobbiStorm

@hobbistorm on X

Jimmy's song is based on a short story...

...by F. Scott Fitzgerald.

He wrote a Fantasy Gene Story.