TD 10 Forms by Africa. Forecast to be Hurricane Larry. NHC Says 105 MPH by Sunday! Also Rescue Dogs From Hurricane Ida at Humane Society...

 

TD 10 Forms from the African Wave.

No rest for the weary....

Models from www.spaghettimodels.com

The NHC has Larry as a 105 MPH Hurricane by Sunday according to the discussion in their first advisory. Note from the graphic shown above that they are staying conservative with their intensity forecast for now and again this was the first advisory so remember weather evolves in real time.  

Many have jumped in and given this the title FISH STORM while it was over Africa. It's easy to want to be the first one to point and scream "FISH STORM" but often hurricanes that get that strong and have a long way to go can get trapped under a blocking high and then it becomes a game of chicken to see when the high pressure budges and what the hurricane does. Indications are that at the end of the realistic forecast period a high pressure are could build in blocking it or just merely slowing it down while it spins harmlessly out in the Atlantic. It's also possible it gets further West than many expect and so keep that in mind. FISH STORM could turn out to be FAKE FISH STORM maybe even a fake soy fish burger ;)     

Nice to be able to be silly about a Major Hurricane that hopefully will stay out at sea. 

As always I caution people never to count your fish dinners until your food has been served!

There is also an incredible wave behind it that will need to be monistored!

And there is still the area in the Caribbean that many insist will form and become a problem of some kind in the Gulf of Mexico. It is possible but it's too soon to worry so watch as we are a day away from September when we have to remember to watch everything that forms in the tropics as we go into the depth of the Hurricane Season.

Tomorrow is Meteorological Fall and I have already jumped the gun with an awesome Pumpkin Spice Frappe. I know Cantore says it has to be 60 degrees or something before he orders one but during a late Carolina summer any day is a good day to have an ice cold Frappe!  It was awesome and by the way after what's left of Ida cruises through here over night a COLD FRONT will dip down and drop our temperatures out of the 90 degree range so that most definitely makes me happy! I'm in Charlotte tonight so I get to watch Brad Panovich in real time, a great meteorologist!

Stay tuned... 

Please give money to the www.redcross.org for help trying to put Louisiana back together. It will be weeks to months before there is any normal so if we can shut that region down this season from more hurricanes I'd be happy. You can obviously give to any charity you TRUST and know from experience to be honest. 

My brother in Miami was at the Humane Society today helping provide support to approximately 50 dogs that the Humane Society evacuated out of the hurricane cone. Note the word HUMANE as that says a lot about how you treat animals, and my brother often works with the Red Cross but is also on the Humane Society List for dogs who have been rescued from Hurricanes.  Give money, give what you can because the need is strong. And if you are looking to adopt a dog these days know the Humane Society near you may have a dog rescued from Hurricane Ida. 

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram

Ps Rather than show a song here's a video from JAX where they took 5 dogs from Mississippi from Hurricane Ida. 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=meStGqlQd_k

Storm Forming By Africa. Questions on SW Carib Producing a Storm Into BOC or GOM. IDA Dropping Large Amounts of Rain Across the US Today

 

State of the Tropics Tuesday Morning.

Yellow a distant maybe.

Red off Africa upgraded today? Soon...

Ida clean up goes on and on ...

... Ida's remnants amping up rain across the US.

Hopefully no flooding anywhere but time will tell.

I'm on the road this morning so I will update this afternoon when I get where I'm going.  Know the misery in Louisiana has only begun as people get back to their homes and rescue workers look for people to rescue hoping they find no bodies to recover. Ida is a long term tragedy when it comes to the many layers of post Hurricane clean up and trying to move on with the scattered fragments of your lives. I'm not being poetic here, after Andrew I saw up close and personal how a hurricane can tear homes apart, families apart and often marriages. Life goes on but it goes on in a different way after such the castastrophic tragedy and clean up from a very strong Category 4 hurricane.

Lots of chatter on something forming in the Caribbean again and again models point to Mexico or maybe Texas but models are not reliable until a system actually forms... but they do sniff out things we should watch and pay attention to.  

The Africa wave is a real thing and should get a name sooner rather than later. Models, again they insinuate this far out, show this as possibly a Fish Storm and it's easy to see that but some models at the end run show it moving Westish again but for how long? This developing storm has OMG HUGE BIG WOW written all over it but I don't believe in early model promises. I do believe in what I see and what I see IS impressive already and there's another large wave behind it and you know how this goes by now... if one goes HIGH the one below it usually stays low.

Something to think on.

Not proofing this because no time. 

I'll update later today when I get to my destinationa.

Sweet Tropical Dreams,

BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram

This is the system off of Africa.

Very low now but models show it curving North.

Fish Storm or Sneaky Fake Fish Storm?

We have a long way to go before we sleep with this one.

Devastation From IDA Seems to Surprise Many. Why? It was a Strong Cat 4 Borderline 5 Hurricane Moving Slowly Destructively Across the Landscape of Louisiana. Models Form Another Storm in the SW Carib Models Put Into the GOM Soon. Learn and Stay Prepared!

 

State of the Tropics Monday Morning.

The morning after Ida made landfall.

Watch the wave by Africa.

Watch the yellow area in the SW Carib....

...it may be breeding another Ida models form too soon.

More on them later today and tomorrow.

We are now moving into the heart of hurricane season....

...and many hearts have been broken today.

The above is the headline from Forbes.

Link to the article down below.

The sun is not up where I am and it will be a while before it's up in New Orleans and the surrounding towns, cities and hamlets where everyone lives who was dealt a hard blow by a strong Category 4 Hurricane yesterday. Ida was almost a Category 5 and the damage was foretold of in graphic forecasts from the National Weather Service and every reporter or meteorologists covering the intense deadly hurricane. Yet, everyone seems surprised that New Orleans lost power. 

Water is out, especially in places where electrical pumps are used to pump water, and there has been flooding across a wide area. Did I mention that this almost Cat 5 Hurricane was large and moving slowly after landfall. Strong lines of storms trained over Alabama and the Florida Panhandle far to the East of the center of Ida in Louisiana. That's why we learn in Hurricane Country when a hurricane is headed our way to fill the bathtub with water so that if the power and water goes out we can use that water to flush the toilets. 

Everyone seems shocked about the scope of the damage and destruction. With the morning light the extent of the destruction will be more apparent and more painful as the death toll now is only at one person confirmed dead but that will most likely rise. Add in the regular "Post Storm" deaths with people trying to get into flooded areas or hurt taking away debris or taking down shutters.

What surprises me is why everyone is so surprised.

In Miami the whole power grid went down for weeks after a borderline Category 2 hurricane hit Miami after Hurricane Katrina hit it weeks earlier; we had three hurricanes in 2005 and the electrical grid was knocked on it's back side and could not get up. New Orleans did not have a Cat 5 landfall but it had a slow moving, strong Major hurricane and missed the eye by about ten miles. This is the reality of the damage of a hurricane, especially a large strong hurricane moving tediously slowly. This type of scenario is literally a wrecking ball movign slowly across the countryside and when metropolitan areas are in it's way they get crushed in more complex ways as the infrastructure goes down.

Lousiana was pounded last year by several storms and it took months for many places outside large meteropolitan areas to get things put back together and still blue tarps and empty homes litter the back roads everywhere from last year. 

Link to the article from the headline shown above.

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/live/2021/aug/30/hurricane-ida-2021-live-update-louisiana-storm-hits-new-orleans-path-tracker-mississippi-river-latest-updates

Why is everyone surprised?

This is the horrific damage of a strong Cat 4 almost a Cat 5 Hurricane.  Will we ever know how strong it really was early Sunday morning because as it was bombing out doing Rapid Intensificaiton the recon plane sent into it had to turn back and was unable to gather the data that it was actually a 5 not a 4. As many online said this was a Category 4.75 Hurricane and the damage we are seeing is supportive of that. We use phrases like "bombing out" because it is indeed like a small nuclear bomb exploding.

Let this be a wake up call to everyone on the East Coast, including Florida that feels especially teflon at the moment, Texas and the Carolinas of the damage another hurricane similar to this one later this year will deal to another place be it as well known and famous as New Orleans or some small town that feels as if they have been temporarily wiped off the map that no one knows where they are but feels bad for them and then life goes on for the people far from the destructive path of the distant hurricne.

Picture a child's LEGO village built beautiful, meticulously and suddenly some sardonic,  older brother takes their strong, heavy bowling ball and rolls it across the little LEGO village and tears it to pieces. That is the power of a hurricane that can tear apart the fabric and structure of our lives. We know much about them and how to predict them and sniff them out from satellite imagery and yet we have not nailed down the timing of the Rapid Intensfication or where a hurricane slows exactly and then suddenly turns NORTH vs the forecast continued Northwest track and yes that happened Sunday in real time. But, before it formed it was forecast to develop and that it could be a Major Hurricane that would hit the Gulf Coast in a short amount of time. All in all that's pretty amazing, but I suppose in 2021 we expect total perfection? 

I'm a little shocked that everyone seems shocked.

When the sun comes up and the first responders, families and friends work their way across the landscape I can predict more people will be shocked.

Please take this as your wake  up call becasue we have not yet even begun the month of September and that's the month to remember how horrific a hurricane can be in September and all the way through October when the big, monster hurricanes usually form down in the Caribbean or out by Africa and move en masse like one gigantic bowling ball looking for a town to crush.

The NHC needs more money both for research for hurricanes and recon planes to go into the hurricanes to get the best data to perfect the best track.

That's it. 

I'll update with breaking news at some point later today.

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram.

IDA OVER LAND MOVING NORTH VERY SLOWLY... Ups Ante for Serious Destruction INLAND ... All the 2 to NOLA & Concerned on Lake Ponchartrain. Some Issuew with Flooding Now Happening. Tornadoes.

 

This is the radar at 5 PM.

The black marker is where Mike is...

... he's in Boutte Louisiana.

He took shelter in a hotel.

And will now be easily in the EYE WALL.

Spaghetii Models Mike...

IDA clearly moving North. 

Slower than NHC forecast.

Still a Major Hurricane inalnd, part of it is over water so that feeds it and sustains it and a good part of it is over marsh land, low country, bayou (we call that brown water) so being "over land" is only half the story.  This especially impacts New Orleans as they already have windows blown out in downtown Nola, there is damage everywhere and while minor damage the weakening from the long period under strong Tropical Storm force conditons and hurricane gusts have weakened everything so that when hit by the eye wall things will go flying fast and damages go up.

This tweet refrences the problems in Belle Chase.

A levee is being overtopped SE of Nola.

TWC has spoken on it.

You have the Mississippi River.

You have Lake Ponchartrain.

Both have their own storm surge problems.

From Zoom Earth.

1. Still 130 MPH  Cat 4 inland.... moving North slowly.

2. Right sided weather slamming Mississippi ... tornado warnings along the Gulf Coast to E of IDA.

3. Cone shows NNW as per NHC last forecast but radar clearly shows North movement currently.

Is that a jog? If so it's been a long jog. It's going to be a very long night. Ida stayed East of many of the better storm chasers who located further to the West and just tracing across Houma that has been under this barrage of weather for a long while. Morgan City and Baton Rouge out of the Eye's path.  Also remember Mississippie juts into Louisiana so as this moves North it impacts places in both states.

Hospitals have lost roofs, homes, churches ...this is just a very slow moving disaster that has done everything right to create a more perfect disaster.

Flooding in La Place, Louisiana a small place between the river and the Lake.

Watching both channels during coverage.

Watching Cantore in New Orleans as well.

But this highlights the problems developing now.

Also some discussion about a Shell Oil Platform that came loose it's hard to get hard data there so don't be surprised if there are stories you hear about tomorrow that you don't hear about today. Water is flowing accross the roadside above and there were fish seen in the water. The levels of misery here are too long to even count. Strong Category 4 Hurricanres near Cat 5 at landfall moving tediously slowly inland will do that.

While the bulk of Ida is over land, look how much moisture (fuel) is feeding it... deep rusty reds training in over Alabama, Mississippi and Louisiana all night long.......

Again main problems so far are listed below:

1. Rapid Intensification moving towards Landfall.

2. Eye wall replacement on landfall (expands eye size and area under 150 MPH winds)

3. Slows down to a Crawl North while battering cities like Houma.

4. Current track makes a long tedious night of watching New Orleans and surrounding area for flooding.

So if you are in the path of this deadly storm please hunker down, monitor it for any changes in forward motion and track and stay where you are safe. Prepare for the worst, hope for the best but so far we keep getting the worst case scenario sadly. 

And know we are only just starting to move towards the heart of the Hurricane Season.

Not threatenng but quickly.

TD 10 is in the Atlantic NE of the Islands.

Out to sea for now not bothering anyone.

But a slow mover so bears watching.

Tropical Storm Julian.

Should go Subtropical soon.

The wave coming off of Africa is a problem.

Potential problem.

This could be Kate.

Many models develop another storm down the road.

We can talk on that later but know models are on board.

The area off the East Coast has low chances 10%

BUT.... the remnants of IDA will track across the USA

And there could be severe flooding somewhere down the road.

This is a long road to go before we are done with Ida.

By then we will be tracking Kate!

Stay safe.

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram

Ps you can follow Mike when he goes live...

https://www.facebook.com/mikesweatherpage

www.spaghettimodels.com

UPDATED! IDA LANDFALL.Port Fourchon Near Grand Isle - NHC Tracking 5 Systems Currently Now in the Heart of the Season & Ida is a Heartbreaking Disaster

Threads the need of Port Fourchon.

An OIL PORT by the way....

Cat 4 - HURRICANE IDA 

150 MPH - 930 MB.

Close to Cat 5 Status, still intensifying.

This is the not same hurricane that people in it's path saw when they fell asleep finally last night. Sad, but true in that Ida chose a rancid time to do her Rapid Intensification dance last night after cliniging to Cat 2 status for most of the day yesterday looking a big ragged. Ida doesn't look ragged now, pretty much as close to perfection on all levels in that this is a perfect diasaster scenario. Close to Category 5!

People who fell asleep sure that this was over hyped and a busted forecast hopefully did not gamble with their lives and got out of town if their town was low lying and prone to flooding. Yes, the NHC did say it could be a Category 4 on landfall and they always say to prepare for a category higher and that only leaves Cat 5 to prepare for and in the path of a Cat 5 there is only one way and that is to get out of town unless you live in a structure tested and built to take a Category 5 Hurricane.  It's a moving buzzsaw carrying with it the devatation seen in a nuclear explosion, without of course the radioactivity, but nothing will be normal for a long time trust me.

All the discussion on it rapidily developing early yesterday morning raised expectations too high and Ida chose the worse time to intensify. I knew she'd intensify on landfall, I've been doing this a long time and this was classic "as it approaches the coastline" but still I was up last night until the 5 AM advisory came in waiting to see what the NHC would do after the recon plane had to turn back for technical problems and they were using good but lesser grade data than that which they receive from the dropsonde dropped into the storm with other assorted data it relays to them. Reminds me of when the radar dish on top of the Hurricane Center blew away as Andrew was making landfall and Bryan Norcross asked the Director on air live where exactly the eye was and he replied he wasn't sure because their radar dish just blew away. Everyone in Miami at the same time collectively cursed. Yes, Ida is one of those Andrew like hurricanes!

Not much else to say except to pray. It's too late to say more right now for those in the path of the strongest weather, but if you live further inland watch it carefully. The forecast for how strong it stays further inland keeps changing and it's a rainmaker, a heart breaker and it will be a flood maker. Concerns on inland flooding down the road all the way to the Atlantic are on the table. 

So I'll update later but that's it for now. Always incredibly humbling to watch a hurricane do RI late in the quiet hours of the night with Twitter exploding as everyone is sharing data and watching each new image coming in leaving you almost speechless but not quite.  This is the nightmare we thought it would be and the nightmare is descending onto Louisiana as I type.

Check back later........

Ps. The one coming off Africa is a problem.

New area just off the coast of North Carolina.

Will update in real time 1 PM ... August 29th on the anniversary of Hurricane Katrina a stronger Hurricane IDA makes landfall in Louisiana at the astonishing strength of 150 MPH. Reports from the people that stayed in Grand Isle show a wild disaster like movie scene with the water rising and cameras that were filming going underwater. The Port is a huge OIL PORT so that and the other oil rigs involved here will make a financial impact beyond the beautiful bayou towns along the waters edge that have now gone underwater in a high storm surge pushing inland.  Inland towns such as Houma are next in the path as is Morgan City and New Orleans is already having power problems so this has only just begun as a long siege of Louisiana by a historic Hurricane Ida. I'll update later... trying to pass along information on Twitter in real time that will hopefully help someone in the path of the storm.  

iCyclone is in Houma.

Jim Williams is in Lake Morgan. 

Stay tuned.......

Updated 2 AM MAJOR HURRICANE CAT 3 Dangers of LANDFALL Within the WHOLE AREA of the Cone. New Orleans is the Big City But the Coastline of the GOM & Lake Pontchartrain Creates Dangers ... Storm Sruge on the Lake... in the Marshes at Landfall. Complex Dangers. Don't Look at the Center of the Line in the Cone.

Cone is a tad to the East.

As I mentioned earlier.

Use the river as a measure...

.. again it's about the whole hurricane.

but it's worth notinng.

Also not writing on 9 and 10 but it's busy out there.

So back to Ida.

Mean left hook there!

Pressure dropping but winds still 105.

Also Ida is expanding in size........

 

This is from NHC discussion.

Wind field expanding means more people hit by hurricane winds!

Note the strong red dangerous storm cells far from the eye!

Notice that strong storms are close to land.

Each hurricane is different shape wise.

This creates a possible path of damage....

...far from where it makes landfall!

Main point of tonights blog.

If you are inside this gridded area...

... you could get strong impacts from Ida.

Dangerous and deadly impacts.

The small bullseye is the hurricane force conditions.

The wider red bullseye tropical storm force.

Do NOT focus on the center line...

...it's an academic issue.

The deadly, dangers are inside the grided area.

Ida's eye.

Strange structure but it is what it is...

... should evolve overnight and intensify.

Pressure is dropping...

...then the winds go up.

Note Cuba is still within it's tail.

This is a massive hurricane.

But the deadly winds are in the core.

Around the eye not just in the eye.

Please remember that.

Below is a graphic from the NHC

Interactive Cone. 

Please use it.

This is the cone from 5 PM>

Understand there are multiple warnings.

So everyone in that zone... 

...especially the center should be expecting it.

Looking closer in .....

This is the center of the cone with the line shown.

Ignore the line and note the huge area in the same color.

This WHOLE area and later far inland... gets IDA directly!

Because of the topography and the shoreline of Louisiana, New Orleans, Grand Isle and Lake Ponchartrain it presents problems most other areas do not have. Let's say the hurricane follows that center line, tho rarely do they ever follow a line in the cone exactly... Grand Isle would get a serious storm surge as Ida's approaching track would be like an attack at it directly.  But storm surge at landfall is a moving target and in an area such as this it flows up into the marshes, areas adjoined to the coastal cities and Lake Ponchartrain is a beautiful lake more like an inland sea and the dome of water would be pushed across it at the towns located at it's edge on the North Side. A hit further to the West in less populated areas would be kinder (at least for the populated cities) but everyone from Baton Rouge to Biloxi should prepare as if they get landfall even though all the attention is on New Orleans a city many people know, love and can idenfity with vs lesser know places people actually live and are also in the path of Ida.

Note the many cities along the Lake.

Further inland away from "landfall" 

Yet any wind being moved across the lake...

... will be for them like another "landfall" in a way.

This is not the ocean but the Lake.

North end of the Lake (as well as the South)

Gets it's own storm surge.

So where Ida goes after "landfall" impacts everyone.

The 11 PM update will be important but basically the NHC has followed their forecast cone edging Ida closer and closer towards landfall. Despite looking incredible deadly and dangerous she has some odd issues that make her not yet a perfect Major Hurricane; best not to concentrate on minor fluctiuations in strength and she should continue strengthening over night. The NHC has pointed out to the hot tongue of water before landfall expecting her to be a Cat 4 at that point whereas I felt it would most likely intensify as it is making landfall. Kind of splitting hairs in an academic way. I know what it's like to have a Category 5 hurricane coming at me, chasing me not me chasing it to my home and when Andrew's intensity was dropped 5 mph and everyone at TWC looked excited I was not excited because seriously what difference does FIVE MPH mean when within that eye and all the weather it's dragging with it you can be hit by a fast moving cell that has wind gusts as high as 160 MPH when it's "only 145 MPH" and a case in point is that when the NHC lost the radar because a strong gust blew the huge radar device off the roof of their building when they were no where near the eye of Andrew.

The whole hurricane moves together towards landfall and rips across the land with a force hard to explain, when it is a Major Hurricane, and within the whole area being warned you can get wind gusts way higher than the actual forecast wind speed. So STOP FOCUSING ON THE LINE IN THE CENTER OF THE CONE and prepare as if you will get the "honor" of having landfall in your town. 

Details matter to academics but when it rips the roof off your house or your house ends up underwater it doesn't really matter if you got the eye or the storm surge to the East or the eye or the NE of the eye or were slammed by a tornado far from the eye. Sometimes people who don't get the eye but are in the eyewall for a long period of time have more actual damage from the nonstop barrage of Major Hurricane winds. 

Understand?

With prayers for everyone's safety in the path of Hurricane IDA.

I'll update at 11 after the new advisory. The above is my concern that there is too much concern on the academic concern on the exact track of the eye. If you are not chasing Ida (and I have many friends chasing it) you don't need to know exactly where the eye goes but worry more on where the whold system goes and the dangerous, deadly weather it carries within it's envelope of destruction.

I do think it has been tracking just to the East of it's forecast point so I'm curious to see if they will nudge it a bit East by a few miles or not but as I said before IF YOU ARE IN THE CONE at landfall expect that you and your property will get the brunt of this historic, Major Hurricane IDA!

Stay tuned... 

...here's a video of the Lake so see for yourself.

It's a 25 minute trip ...give or take.

It's an inland sea ...feels like an ocean.

Hurricane Ida Forecast by NHC to be a Category 4 Hurricane Moving Towards Landfall Louisiana & Mississippi in the Danger Zone. Coastal Alabama and Florida Panhandle Get Impacts. INLAND Impacts Next.

This is a cone from the NRL.

Navy Research Lab.

It alligns with the NHC Cone below.

But it shows wind speeds better.

And it shows areas that could get wind...

...if u are in the shaded grided area pay attention.

I know it is hard to see what looks like a weak hurricane down near Cuba about to enter the Gulf of Mexico and wrap your head around the reality that it will become a probable Killer Hurricane putting millions of people in the path of danger. Despite great consistency in track from the NHC it is possible as we move into tomorrow and tomorrow night that some small change in it's track extrapolated over time brings this to Bay St. Louis in Mississippi or even closer to Gulport and Biloxi. That is not a high probability but it's a possibility. So far this storm has taken the right side of the cone consistently. Originally it was headed to the Mexican Texas border then Texas then the Sabine River and now the beautiful, low lying city of New Orleans is in it's path as well as all the beauty bayou towns that stretch across the low country that is particualy prone to flooding.  Category 4 Hurricanes carry with them a huge dome of water that hits each beach a little differently and there could be localized flooding and coastal impacts all the way to the Florida Panhandle that are minimal compared to say Grand Isle but large for say Destin. Alabama will have coastal impacts and further up the coast they are in the cone as Ida hangs a right at some point and heads towards the Applachian mountains and associated foothill towns.

Once it leaves Cuba and gets up into the hot GOM water...

..it is forecast by the NHC to explode.

Both in size and intensity.

So this has many moving parts and they all need to be paid attention to from landfall to far inland to everything to the right of the storm where the huge storm surge and strongest winds will pile up water and create localized flooding. Power Outages are the least of it.

There has been so much hype as it's the anniversary of Katrina, a very different storm as it took the track across Florida and hit the Loop Eddy and made landfall where many storms do in this general region. Ida is not Katrina. Ida has a more similar track to Camille so far and looks very siimlar but it is NOT Camille it is IDA and years back we will compare other storms to this storm. It's the way of the world.

Ignore hype if you are in the path of this storm and do what you need to survive. Luckily in a sad, sardonic way ... Louisiana knows more about landfalling hurricanes than most places as they hosted way too many last season. I worry more about places further inland and to the East of Ida's landfall that feel the storm is far away doing New Orlean and not paying attention to any last minute changes.

Sites to use: www.spaghettimodels.com  (so many links you can spend all day there)

You can simply type in any city into Google and it gives your forecast and info. See the forecast I got by putting in "Waveland Mississippi Weather" and it tells you they have a Tropical Storm Warning. Your phone should warn you of weather events. Don't trust some relative who heard it from a friend that heard it from a friend go right to the source with the National Hurricane Center or the National Weather Service.

www.weather.gov

Hurricanes are one of the only Natural Disasters you can prepare for so use this time wisely. Send money to anyone who may need by CashApp or offer them a place to stay and after the storm give as much charity as you can to a reliable source. 

I'll be offline Saturday until after Sundown that's my thing and I am going to rest up over the Sabbath as it's pretty much the only rest I will get for days and I will pray. Maybe it helps and maybe it doesn't but it makes me feel I am at least trying to do something other than beg you to take this hurricane seriously.

What it looks like today is not what it will look like in 24 hours. And know things often change in some minute way so nothing is locked in except it is in the Gulf of Mexico and it will make landfall within the Cone from the NHC.

Stay safe,

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram

 

Hurricane IDA 80MPH - Forecast to be a CAT 4 HURRICANE... How Strong Is the Question. Also Foward Speed at Landfall on GOM a Question. Good Forecast Currently from NHC - Now is the Time To Do What You Gotta Do!

80 MPH Ida...

...forecast to be 140 MPH

Cat  4 on arrival possibly...

Not a very sexy exciting picture but it's the discussion from the NHC that they expect Hurricane Ida to become a Major Hurricane and have 140 MPH prior to landfall! Storm surge, inland flooding and a track that takes it far inland towards Tennesee creating more inland flooding. Remember, Camille left people dead in Virginia far from landfall due to flash floods. A Major Hurricane can do major damage at landfall, near landfall or far inland.

Models... 

You can see the track of the storm thru Tennessee...

across the Carolinas and Virginia.

Models as of 6 PM

Let's ignore that model.

Eventually as I said below you get one model...

..pulls from the pack.

The NHC track at 5 PM is consistent.

Consistently dangerously bad.

The NHC always says to prepare for a category stronger than forecast and currently it's forecast to be a Cat 4 (which i knew would happen) and that means prepare for a Cat 5. Not much I cacn add that I did not add earlier.  It is forecast to explode tomorrow into a dangerous Major Hurricane and move rapidly at first towards the coastline while slowing a bit on approach in the general Louisiana Mississippi. I know the media loves to blow up NEW ORLEANS and trust me I LOVE NOLA but there are many towns and places in it's path and a buzzsaw Cat 4 can do unspeakble damage as a direct hit. Again Nola did not get the brunt of Katrina and actually took it quite well but the levee failed. Towns like Waveland to it's East were devastated.

So pray for those in the track. Watch for any irregularities in the models or subtle changes in a track that has already been pulled from TexMex to Texas to Louisiana and do not be surprised if it gets tugged a bit more the East even if that is not currently in the forecast.

Either way it's a bull in the proverbial china shop and it's going to wreck someone's life badly.

I'll update Saturday evening. Please keep reading my thoughts on concerns I have for trouble to the East of Ida. A developing hurricane forecast by the NHC to be a CAT 4... prepare accordingly for a Cat 5 meaning if you live in low lying areas... get out of town, any port in the storm is better than low lying coastal land!

11 AM Cone of watches and warnings.

Compare to the 5 PM above.

It's the same cone of concern!

I really think Ida takes the right side of the Cone.

Or it bends just a bit more to the East.

But between now and then much will happen.

More on models later.

Well aligned storm ...stacking vertically.

That allows it to explode and grow in size.

Strength and size.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=09L&product=ir-dvorak This is the link to the Dvorak, image shown above, but you can use many other loops there as well as obviously an incredible floater.  Always watch the storm in real time as opposed to getting lost in models. Models can be perfectily aligned on one run and then one or two break from the pack. What does that mean? It means that one model vs the others sees something different as a possibility because something has changed. 

What could change here with regard to the forecast? A strong Major Hurricane and this could easily be a Category 4 if not more are prone to ceate their own environment that aids them moving Northward towards the poles and protects them at the same time.  Some people carry back up batteries to charge their phones in case of emergency, you know cute ones they found at TJ Maxx on sale cheap. Other people buy those huge back up battery chargers that feel like a brick but can charge your phone for the next day or so not just for a few hours.  A Major Hurricane IDA is like that huge battery pack that feels like a brick, costs a lot of money and keeps it going way longer than a weak storm dealing with land interaction or shear and not vertically aligned.

Strong Major Hurricanes want to pull North towards the poles and what blocks them is a high to the North or blocking their movement to the NE keeping them going NW or NNW towards their target. When a front approaches they jump on board and ride the front to the East Coast. When they slow down it often means the steering currents are weakening or something has changed. High Pressure builds in to their North blocking their rapid movement or the high to the East of them begins to erode a bit as they love to trace the High.  The forecast is for the High to remain strong and that is why everyone is screaming LOUISIANA! but I'm concerned definitely on Mississippi as well as it's neighbors to the East. Mississippi and Alabama share small narrow coastlines that slam up against the wide Florida Panhandle. 

Also the strongest impacts are usually to the right of the eye with regard to storm surge especially with the type of Major Hurricane that the NHC is selling in their excellent forecasts for this intensifying hurricane. But there is always some fly in the ointment that shows up close in before landfall and what that fly may be doing I can't say but I can feel it. Slowing down on landfall cfreates a Harvey like scenario, slowing down can mean it's beginning to change directions more and lean more to the right at landfall due to the high eroding. Possibly the weather out ahead of helps weaken the high or possibly the huge outlow of a Cat 4 Hurricane erodes it a bit. No way of knowing this minute but IF there is an issue to deal with it will reveal itself. The forecast slowing of speed of a Hurricane that can intensify close in as many like Hurricane Michael have sone makes this particular situation a dangerous one on many levels.

This image above shows the moisture (fuel) to Ida's South.

It also shows much moisture to it's North...

...again the High is forecast to build in.

There are literally lines out ahead of Ida to Nola. 

Grand Isle. Bay St. Louis (MS)

Below we see the water temperatures.

Ida sitting over very hot water now.

Then finds more hot water later.

This can be found on www.spaghettimodels.com

Below are the current models also from the site above.

Watch the next model runs to see any changes.

So far they are tracing eachother to Louisiana.

There's always that one wayward one.

Watch any trends.

That eye is gonna pop out soon.

Keep watching.

I'll update after the 5 PM package. A reminder I am offline on Saturday as I keep the Jewish Sabbath (which allows me to recharge my battery) and I'll be on Saturday evening after sundown. The NHC has been very good with this storm and any changes in intensity or track or forward speed they will deal with in real time. AGAIN..........use the NWS they are your friend. TWC can be found on ROKU as is Weather Nation. Mike at Spaghetti Models does an incredible job being live on air and talking when ever he can so use him www.spaghettimodels.com

More to come later after the 5 PM.

Everyone in the track of IDA prepare NOW.

Do what you got to do.

But know hurricanes in the N GOM often bobble a bit.

And too often they do it at landfall.

So forecasts are good but this evolves in real time.

Stay safe and stay informed.

Helop anyone you can before the storm hits.

I'll be on Saturday Evening.

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram