Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Wednesday, January 30, 2013

Funny Feel in the Air in Raleigh 29.54 Falling...??


Barometric Pressure is 29.54 and Falling...

It's very gusty one minute and extremely silent and still the next. Odd.. odd for me.

I was told it's very much like the weather in 1988 and when there was "the tornado" however on TV they are extremely laid back and you get the impression they are erring on the side of caution.

I heard what I thought was thunder.. but wasn't.. around the time there was a Weather Spotter in Garner reported a wind gust of 63.2 mph. That'a far off as the crow flies.. maybe the crow flies faster in tornado weather...

Waiting for "the line" to blow through here...

Looks like a "bow echo" to me... down south of here but as the line is moving through at a weird angle.. where will that go through?

Some trees are down and they are concerned with power outages..

Who knows?

Been crazy weather all week.

Snow, Ice, Freezing Fog, Freezing Rain, close to 80 degrees and a cold front tonight with a threat of straight line wind damage and tornadoes...   reminds me of that old musical.. Tragedy tomorrow, comedy tonight... or is that the other way around?

As for me.. getting slowly better. S L O W L Y.. taking my medicine and drinking my tea and .. watching General Hospital :) and the weather...

This would be one crazy named storm... depression if it was tropical.

Crazy... telling you a funny feeling in the air tonight and I'm not doing a song cue...

.....or maybe it's just the meds and the sound of the wind..........and the weather radio :) and my best friend calling me telling me we have a "torcom of 4" ;)

Thinking there WILL be bad weather somewhere from this system tonight that caused heart breaking loss in Georgia earlier today.  Maybe further west, closer to the coast where the weather is a bit warmer and wetter or... a bit further to the south.

Time will tell........

Besos Bobbi

Tuesday, January 29, 2013

Flip Flop Weather... Under the Weather... Severe Weather Tomorrow


You know weather is a big story when Matt Drudge has it high up on his page. Or.. it's a very slow news day....


2 links...count em 2...to news on the wicked, wild weather...

Flip Flop Weather.... flip flops today, furry lined boots on Thursday...

Personally, I hate going to TWC site online as the moment I click I get video and if I wanted to "watch" vs read, I'd be watching TWC which is currently on mute in my bedroom. I like the maps...
But ...weather IS an issue today in parts of the US where there is an odd flux between COLD days, WARM days, COLD days again.

On a personal level... I love weather of any kind, but this sort of weather puts me under the weather which is why I am in bed and have not posted the last day or two. Though really not much to say as the Ice melted FAST...everyone I know got the sniffles which to me translates as a sinus infection in 24 hours or so (oh THATS why my father moved to Florida where my mother's family was from.. because he always got sick up north...) but either way I keep dreaming of ways to spend  next winter with my best friend in Maine..there has to be a way....   all jokes aside I do love Portland, Maine.

Anyway...............back in the US we are stuck in some pattern that keeps making me think of 2004 and 2005 which keeps making me think of the Hurricane Season of 2004 and 2005 :)

2004



2005



http://www.erh.noaa.gov/rnk/Newsletter/Summer_2005/Climo/Winter0405_article.htm

Note the first paragraph could have been written by any weather person this year:

"Overall our winter was warm with monthly average temperature across Southeast West Virginia, Southwest Virginia and Northwest North Carolina of 2-5 degrees (F) above normal. The first half of each month was warm, especially January, where temperatures were 15-20 degrees (F) above normal. Record high temperatures in early January had people wondering, is winter over already? The second half of December and January reminded us that winter was still around as Arctic blasts of cold air dropped temperatures below zero across portions of the mountains and into the teens and single digits along and east of the Blue Ridge. It seemed the closer we got to Spring (March 20), the colder the temperatures remained."

Please read the article.. it's a great read....

Then when you go down to January you could be reading about January 2013...

"A "Bipolar" month with high and low temperatures running well above and below normal. Under a strong ridge of high pressure, the first half of the month saw a few records broken as temperatures soared into the mid to upper 60s across the west and lower to mid 70s in the east. Overnight lows also remained above normal the first couple of weeks of January. Spring-like weather in the form of severe thunderstorms and flooding was also reported, leading some people to wonder, was winter over? Very unseasonably high dew points (lower to mid 60s) moved into the area on January 14th. This moisture combined with a slow moving cold front to produce a large swath of rain across the region. Upslope southeast winds into the Blue Ridge in northwest North Carolina and southwest Virginia ahead of the cold front produced an area of persistent heavy rain. Rain rates were around an inch an hour, and total rainfall amounts in a 3 to 4 hour period ranged from 2.5 to 3.5 inches. In northwest North Carolina, flooding was reported in Watauga and Surry counties. Flooding was particularly bad along the Ararat River in Surry county, with flood damage to approximately 50 homes and 10 businesses. In southwest Virginia, flooding was reported in Patrick, Franklin and Amherst counties. Minor flooding occurred along the Dan River at South Boston, the Roanoke River at Randolph, and the James River at Bremo Bluff. The unstable atmosphere also produced rotating thunderstorms and led to the issuance of a couple of Tornado Watches and four Tornado Warnings for the area. No tornadoes were confirmed, however one severe thunderstorm brought damaging winds to the west side of Danville, partially blowing a roof off an apartment complex. After the bout of severe weather, an Arctic blast of cold air in the second half of the month brought back the reality of winter and wind chills as low as -15F. Despite the temperatures dropping well below normal, early January record warmth kept monthly mean temperatures 4-5 degrees (F) above normal.

Cold air in place the latter half of the month, combined with a few storms tracking close by, brought a wintry mix of snow, sleet and freezing rain to the region. On January 20-21 (upslope 22-23), a low pressure system tracked to the northeast coast becoming a major Nor'easter. This brought significant snowfall to the New England states. As this system tracked close to our area, warm air was allowed to intrude aloft, bringing a wintry mix of mostly sleet and some snow to Northwest North Carolina and the Southwest Virginia mountains. The Greenbrier Valley and Virginia Highlands stayed in the cold air and saw mostly snow. The foothills and piedmont sections of southern Virginia and northern North Carolina saw a wintry mix of snow, sleet and freezing rain. It was this warm air aloft that allowed more sleet to fall limiting the amount of snow to 1-3 inches. On January 29th (29th ice) another disorganized storm tracked from Southern California and into Northern Virginia. As this system moved through the Tennessee Valley, a coastal low formed off the Carolinas. This system tracked differently, but produced the same results; a wintry mix of snow, sleet, and freezing rain, keeping snow amounts low."

Look at the weather map for Raleigh as an example:

Weather for Raleigh, NC

65°F | °CTueWedThuFri
Mostly SunnyChance of StormsClearMostly Sunny
Scattered Clouds
Wind: SW at 13 mph
Humidity: 63%70°55°72°45°48°32°43°25°


I'm sitting and writing this in thin pajama flannels from Victoria Secrets (purple with little white stars) and a very thin purple tee shirt from Miami.. no socks... windows open and the ceiling fan is on medium.

There is talk of severe weather and a tornado threat for Wednesday (see the dark stormy cloud above) and then............lows drop back fast down to below freezing at the end of the week. Hopefully, I'll be well enough to go to a friend's for dinner Friday night..


Gypsy Cold Care Tea and Keflex...color coordinated ;)

Goldenseal helps...but takes longer and why Zand's drops are so hard to find here I don't know. No, I don't want cough drops.. I want the original... 

Insure Herbal Echinacea & Goldenseal


Anyway........................the point here is not that you have to remember to stock up and buy things on the Internet because Whole Foods has "their own brand" (which is not as good...) and Earth Fare doesn't have it... neither does any other place I looked.

And, the Internet has everything..............it has maps and charts and articles (like mine) that explain things and give you that funky trivial details you were looking for..

Yes.................the winter of 2004/2005 seems to be a good analog period to use for this 2012-2013 Winter and IF so....................I'd look at those two years as possible analogue years to this coming hurricane season.

Can't wait for the thunderstorms tomorrow...   delayed my trip south for this cold.. not in the mood or mode to travel with a sinus infection...nope. 

So, cold nasty weather is traveling across the country, meeting up with the usual suspects from the Gulf of Mexico and that is setting up to be a violent day of weather somewhere in the highlighted area.



Wednesday Forecast



As for me.. it's so warm here I may go outside and sip my Chai Marsala tea on the deck and get some instant Vitamin D ... before the weather gets really nasty tomorrow night............

Besos Bobbi

Friday, January 25, 2013

Icy Raleigh...

Got little icicles having from the roof, the trees... my rosemary bush...


There's more than a half an inch on the deck of something hard to define... ice now. No real build up on the trees...that I can see but it's getting dark.

The snow was fun while it lasted. I wish there had been more. Really have to rethink this living in Raleigh part time. IF I am up north, I want SNOW... not a few flakes.

IMAG4300-1-1.jpg


Hard to see ...from earlier... now the icicles are longer...

Good Shabbos... may you stay safe from harm and enjoy every beautiful moment of the weather around you...  

Totally addicted, by the way... to snow :)   . . . in so many ways !!!

Besos Bobbi

If you live in NC... or anywhere affected by this storm which stretches down into South Carolina and to the north into Virginia... stay inside and warm. Slick out there... beautiful, can't wait to see what it looks like in the sunrise...

School Bus Wreck in Raleigh on Icy Streets... Kids on the Bus...




Total stupidity... I said it the other day, I'm saying it again. There is no reason that they could not have cancelled school today in Raleigh. A "half day" or calling school long enough for fiscal budget reasons rather than just cancel Friday.

The bus is from an school, North Ridge Elementary, and has elementary school children on the bus.. in the cold...

Just stupid.

The snow and ice came early to the Triangle today, before noon it started to sleet, rain and snow and the roads quickly became icy and hard to drive on. Add to that some freezing rain a little while later.

I said it yesterday.... KEEP THE KIDS HOME... everyone gets nuts running around panicky worrying about traffic jams and icy roads and accidents happen.

http://www.wral.com/officials-offer-winter-storm-guidelines/12022026/

That's a large swatch of ICE moving East into the Piedmont... RDU... and areas to the south and the east.




Stay tuned... listening to the musical, lyrical sound of ice pellets falling on the table on the deck.. the glass frozen table.

Now they are talking on possible power outages... depending on how much ice we get...

Stay tuned...

Love the weather... the problems are not because of the weather...they are because of stupidity by government officials and people who are afraid to just listen to their inner gut and stay home for the day and who refuse to believe the worst can happen.


It's not about being given warnings vs in 2005 there were no warnings.  Warnings do not help if people refuse to believe it can happen and they don't respect the power of Mother Nature..

More later.... 

I cooked early so I could stay on top of events this afternoon...

Traffic Cam:

http://www.wral.com/news/video/12024992/#/vid12024992

Besos Bobbi


Sleet & Snow in Raleigh...


I put down some green paper because... they were so pretty...wanted to see better the shapes!

But, it IS snowing...and then sleeting and then... hard to say what it is...suppose it's a mix.

The school buses have started rolling to pick up the kids ... note it was not supposed to snow/sleet until 2pm... so they are closing school at 11:30 and at Noon... but it has already started...



Note the streets are well brined and if you can manage to GET to Whole Foods...they have really done a great job on the parking lot ;)


A bit quiet in there though...


Note the only people there right now is a film crew for Edible Whole Foods the TV Series... 

Seems a movie shoot is a movie shoot... indoors.. not out on location ;)



http://pinterest.com/ediblepiedmont/edible-whole-foods-series/

I guess the show MUST go on... they are doing Mardi Gras.. Valentines Day...

And, since I began this blog post it has turned over to snow .. beautiful snow... 



My little green paper trick is cute... and looking through the window getting covered over by big snow flakes...

Besos Bobbi

Raleigh Durham...Winter Storm ... FREEZING DRIZZLE!! Shabbos Shira



Yes, I am waiting for the "freezing drizzle" which I have Googled and learned that it is less likely to create power outages than "freezing rain" but not always. Laugh all you want if you live in Minnesota or if you are reading this from China..as I know there are people out there in China reading this..

I'm from Miami.. we don't get "freezing" anything much... let alone "freezing drizzle" !! !!    

I'm showing the image of www.wral.com because that is the image that it seems everyone in Raleigh is supposed to look at... when there is a threat of a storm.

I spoke to teachers last night who were told to check with WRAL's site constantly even though they would be sent an email or text later in the day.

So...there it is!


    1. freezing drizzle  

      Web definitions
      Freezing drizzle is drizzle that freezes on contact with the ground or an object at or near the surface. Its METAR code is FZDZ. When...
  1. Freezing rain - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

    en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Freezing_rain
    When the freezing rain or drizzle is light and not prolonged, the ice formed is thin. It usually ... Cyclones and Fronts: the definition of freezing rain. Retrieved on ...

It's quiet outside. Very quiet. Grey, quiet and ominously still.

It's out there on the radar... visible to the West.

Knoxville to Asheville to Raleigh-Durham.. shutting down a lot of airports along the way. I heard there were massive delays for today in Charlotte, Chicago (finally got snow) and possibly Atlanta. If you have any flight plans today that connect or even are non-stop... check carefully before you go anywhere.



As for me... right now...am going to Whole Foods.

I have priorities...  going to find a "new fruit" for Tub Shevat and some grains from the Holy Land.

It's also what we call Shabbos Shira, which is the portion of the week Torah reading.. and I had a daughter on Shabbos Shira in 1992 so it's a good day for me and it entails making something with Kasha.

I suppose one can cover all their bets by buying something from Kashi brands :) but that would feel like cheating ;)

Banana Muffins with Carob Chips... that's my dessert for Shabbos!

Tu-BShevat is the "new year" for trees.. based on the Holy Land of Israel...
http://www.chabad.org/library/article_cdo/aid/3264/jewish/Tu-BShevat.htm

Figs, pomegranates and dates...

"We mark the day of Tu B’Shevat by eating fruit, particularly from the kinds that are singled out by the Torah in its praise of the bounty of the Holy Land: grapes, figs, pomegranates, olives and dates. On this day we remember that “man is a tree of the field” (Deuteronomy 20:19), and reflect on the lessons we can derive from our botanical analogue."


Funny that in North Carolina we are worrying on the trees freezing... and dying and not giving fruit next year. Okay, so maybe we can have the fences freeze and cover over with ice and leave the trees alone?

Cute link to Kasha recipes:

http://kosherhomecooking.com/2012/02/03/national-kasha-eating-day-shabbat-shira/

From Aish.com:


Blessings on Fruit

The proper blessing before eating any fruit is:
“Baruch Atah Adod-nai Elohai-nu Melech HaOlam boray pri ha-aitz.”
“Blessed are you God, King of the Universe, Who creates the fruit of the tree.”
[A few fruits, such as pineapple, have a different blessing – the last word is changed to “ha-adama.”]
On Tu B’Shvat, it is also customary to eat a "new fruit" – a seasonal fruit that you have not yet tasted this season, and say the following blessing:
She'hechiyanu Blessing

As for me... I'm going to Whole Foods :
Get some really good coffee, see how the milk and bread aisle are doing and looking for some new fruit to eat on Shabbos while watching whatever freezes melt... 
Keep watching the skies for freezing drizzle :)
I"ll be back... Besos Bobbi

Thursday, January 24, 2013

Night Time Update From Raleigh... No Run on Bread or Milk yet...



It's cold out there tonight. Not a horrible cold, oddly doesn't feel like it could be as cold as they say. The sunset tonight was incredible, hard to believe those colors are real and not some phone App. Interesting sort of sunset if you ask me... but real.

Short while later the moon peaked out... through the trees...


No signs of the big storm that is about to arrive tomorrow afternoon.

Weather Report:

SunnyREST OF TONIGHT
LO: 18 
MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS AROUND 18. EAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH. 
SnowyFRIDAY
HI: 32 
PARTLY SUNNY IN THE MORNING...THEN CLOUDY WITH SNOW... SLEET WITH A CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. LITTLE OR NO SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATION. ICE ACCUMULATION OF UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S. SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH...BECOMING SOUTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 80 PERCENT. 
RainyFRIDAY NIGHT
LO: 22 
CLOUDY WITH FREEZING RAIN LIKELY WITH A CHANCE OF FREEZING DRIZZLE IN THE EVENING...THEN MOSTLY CLEAR AFTER MIDNIGHT. ICE ACCUMULATION AROUND A TRACE. COLD WITH LOWS  I
N THE LOWER 20S. WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 70 PERCENT. 


My husband has this theory that when the stores are bought out of milk and bread... we get nothing. When there is lots of bread and no one shops ... we get slammed. I don't think it's the most scientific way of predicting storm's intensity, but he says he has seen it time and time again over 30 years of living here.

It could be that they sort of "read" the intensity of concern on TV and they plan accordingly. Or... they decide the last storm was a no go so why bother with this one?  That seems to be the thought trend tonight at the various places I went.

Trader Joes said they were a bit busier than normal, but not tremendously busy. Krogers was pretty dead and no one was buying anything storm related. People were talking about the weather though.. concerned about ice, concerned they could lose power... concerned nothing would happen and the kids would be disappointed.

Lots milk on the shelves...


Lots of meat on the shelves...


Hmmnnn.... 

Either there are going to be a lot of crazy people tomorrow trying to get milk and bread... or nothing is going to happen. 

He bought a milk, a challah for shabbos and I drink plant milk so there's no big worry there... stocked up at Trader Joes earlier. Seems like just another Thursday night here...

Only time will tell as they say...the Weather Radio isn't saying much different. A "little freezing rain and drizzle" ... ummmm ... sounds really scary..not. 

Watching the Water Vapor Loop:

Visible Water Vapor - GOES East 12 hr Loop

Not a lot there, we'll see what it shows in the morning.

Can you  imagine forecasting this storm without the use of models? Wonder if they would worry on junco birds and spiders in the corners or where ever the spiders are supposed to go when the weather is about to change. 

Weather for Raleigh, NC

22°F | °CThuFriSatSun
Mostly SunnyIcyClearMostly Sunny
Scattered Clouds
Wind: E at 5 mph
Humidity: 46%39°21°34°25°39°23°43°27°


"SHOULD MAKE NOTE OF A SLIGHTLY COOLER TREND IN THE 18Z GUIDANCE
REGARDING THE WINTER WEATHER EVENT EXPECTED ON FRIDAY.   BASED ON
FORECAST SOUNDINGS...THIS MAY BE DUE TO SLIGHTLY FASTER SATURATION
OF THE MID-LEVELS FROM WEST TO EAST.  HAVE MADE SMALL ADJUSTMENTS TO
TEMP GRIDS FOR FRIDAY...BUT THIS DOES NOT WARRANT ANY CHANGES TO THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY (SEE THE SHORT TERM SECTION BELOW FOR
DETAILS ON THE FORECAST)."


The radio gets more and more interesting. I just heard this interesting phrase:

"sprinkles likely with a chance of freezing drizzle in the evening"

"spotter activation may be necessary..."

 So, if you see any sprinkles... you know who you need to call. 

Now, would that be "snow sprinkles" or just "plain ole sprinkles??" cause my inquiring mind would like to know..

Someone posted this on Facebook:


I'm going to bed. Been a weird night beyond description or any I would like to give.

I saw a mouse...  I saw remnants of a meal at Kroger that someone had and it's interesting to note that junk food is not good enough to eat even when it's on the clearance aisle. Like out of a movie, who does this? And, went to an interesting class.. program... now I'm wondering if we are going to have a wild hurricane season this coming summer... late June, early July. I saw chemtrails across the sky earlier just before sunset and wondered... will that make it snow more.. or less? Come on they are hard to ignore and I'm tired of ignoring stuff.  It feels warmer in ways than it says it is or maybe I just got used to it.

Really Raleigh is sooo ready for Publix to come into this area... though Kroger isn't usually bad, I just tell myself I am back in LA at Ralphs Market :)


Neighbors down the block cut down a big pine tree in the middle of the night... by the moonlight and at some point they shot at it... honest...some strange shooting sound (it was dark and cold and I didn't go out but I lived in North Miami Beach.. I know what a shot sounds like. So, it occurs to me that the Rednecks in North Carolina are way crazier than our good ole Florida Crackers...   finally the tree came down. Fun to watch...  last time I saw a tree that big come down was during Frances..or maybe Jeanne...those two back to back storms run together...

Night everyone... sweet dreams and keep watching for funky weather :)

Besos Bobbi

Ps...whatever happens tomorrow...if there is ANY rain... precipitation.. sprinkles...it will freeze upon contact. I went to water my camellias this morning and I realized the ground was frozen.. then worse... I realized the water in my watering can...was frozen. This should have been obvious, however... it wasn't and I couldn't figure out why the ground was hard...and then I realized. Hunker down...hang out... relax and do NOT run around looking for milk and bread tomorrow. It's due to be back near the 60s in a few days... you'll be fine... do not run around on icy roads... it's just not worth it. Milk is bad for you either way... honest ;)


Winter Storm Warning for Raleigh.. and Stalking Stories & Manti Te'o




This is for real... Winter Weather Advisory has been hoisted for the Raleigh-Durham area and a whole lot of other areas for Ice, Snow, Sleet and whatever other forms of winter weather that includes.

No, I'm not really watching TWC just now.. but I did peek.

It's a "red flag" when you see it scrolling on TWC.

It's a bigger "RED FLAG" when you see it scrolling on a regular local channel like ABC.


Mind you they run that scroll so low that unless you have a really big TV screen (like in the other room) you can barely see what it's saying but the exclusive is not about the storm but about the strangest sports story of the year. Truth is it's not just a "sports story" but a story that happens often to many, but more on that later.

Back to the weather.............

Ye Olde Weather Radio says, "ice accumulation up to a tenth of an inch" (doesn't sound like much but what do I know I'm from Miami...) and "spotters should stay tuned and report any winter weather to the National Weather Service" . . .

So, game on... as some people love to say.



Official NWS Forecast:

  • Snow, mainly after noon. High near 32. Calm wind becoming south 5 to 8 mph in the morning. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of less than one inch possible.
  • Friday NightSnow, possibly mixed with freezing rain before 7pm, then a chance of freezing rain between 7pm and 11pm. Low around 27. Southwest wind around 6 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. Little or no ice accumulation expected. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible.



The forecast is still reals sketchy if you ask me... I mean I'd like some more details, but I understand after spending part of the last few years here... nothing is normal when it comes to North Carolina weather. South Carolina is I may add a little more stable and predictable.


MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH RETREATING THE FREEZING
SFC WET-BULB ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM ROCKINGHAM TO FAYETTEVILLE
TO GOLDSBORO. IT IS TO THE NORTH OF THIS LINE...WHERE WE EXPECT
THE MOST IMPACTS WITH A LIGHT COATING OF A SNOW/SLEET MIXTURE...WITH
A THIN LAYER OF ICE ACCRUAL ON TOP. SOUTH OF THE LINE...WHILE PRECIP
COULD START OUT AS WET SNOW/SLEET...IT WILL QUICKLY CHANGE-OVER TO
A COLD RAIN.

SNOW AND ICE AMOUNTS:
HAVE DECREASED SNOW AMOUNTS ACROSS THE AREA...WITH LESS THAN AN INCH
EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PIEDMONT AND COASTAL PLAINS
COUNTIES...HIGHEST ALONG THE ADJACENT VIRGINIA BORDERING COUNTIES
WHERE DEPTH OF COLD AIR IS GREATEST. THEN THE TRICKY IS PART IS
WHERE EXACTLY THE CORRIDOR OF ICE WILL LIE...POSSIBLY JUST
OVERLAPPING AND SOUTH OF THE BETTER SNOW ACCUMULATION LINE...WITH A
A TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE POSSIBLE.

FACTORS TO CONSIDER THAT MAY ALTER ACCUMULATIONS ARE...1)TIME OF DAY
IS UNFAVORABLE WITH THE MAIN BAND PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA BETWEEN
20 TO 24Z...LIKELY LIMITING THE MAIN IMPACT TO HOW MUCH FREEZING
RAIN/DRIZZLE FALLS BEHIND THE MAIN BAND...2)FRESH DELIVERY OF ARCTIC
AIR TODAY AND TONIGHT(LOWS TONIGHT IN THE LOWER 20S) WILL MAKE SOIL
TEMPERATURES SUFFICIENTLY COLD (MID TO UPPER 30S) TO READILY
ACCUMULATION OF SNOW/SLEET.

FINALLY...STRONG CAA AND LATE CLEARING WITH ALLOW LOWS FRIDAY
NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING TO FALL INTO THE LOWER TO MID 20S...ALLOW ANY
MOISTURE TO FREEZE WHILE KEEP SNOW/ICE ACCUMULATIONS ADHERED TO
SURFACES...ESPECIALLY BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES.


Hard to say and stranger to say that we don't know for sure and there in lies the magic I suppose of waiting for it to snow and wishing for it to snow and never really never knowing until you see the first flakes fall.


This was put up by a group on Facebook, they really do nice work.

https://www.facebook.com/severeweather.easternnc?fref=ts

It illustrates well the extreme differences that exist between the models.

The satellite images show an intense storm in it's way.

It's snowing in Elizabeth City, NC and other areas close to the beach and that is from the first system that moving offshore will turn into one wild cyclonic system moving up the coast.

The next one is out there... funneling this way.

Visible Water Vapor - GOES East 12 hr Loop

I'm not a soothsayer and as a weather forecaster all I can say is... go out tonight, shop, get what you need and hunker down for the next day or two. Looking forward personally to a picturesque Shabbos and hoping to get a nice kiss of winter weather.

Another view....

Enh Infrared Satellite - GOES East 12 hr Loop

Wondering if TWC names this or if this is some no name storm :)

Since driving may be treacherous Friday Night and Saturday you may want to take a sort of "Sabbath" from driving around and going any where. Stay home, relax, read... reconnect with your family or just get under a bunch of covers and read whatever book you have been meaning to read with a cup of hot tea, coffee or whatever you like to drink!

As for the big story on Manti Te'o... I have a lot of deep thoughts and most I won't say as it really isn't that hard to be caught up in a game online.  Especially if you are an honest, caring, trusting person who believes in others easily. Again, after that happens... you don't trust and you don't believe easily.

There's a little square of paper cut out in my notebook I carry around old style... along with my Android phone that says the following "Being Stalked makes you live in fear"


It's there for a reason... and that is to remind me not to let anything that has happened in my past take away my spontaneity and friendliness as at times that has been the case as I have been overly cautious and for good reason.

Unless there is proof that Manti Te'o set this up as some sort of elaborate scam for publicity, which would take long term planning, what people do not seem to get here is that he was the focus of a Stalker... a Scam Artist and someone very smart who enjoyed their relationship and did everything possible to keep the game going on and on. And, possibly with a man who is spending most of his time focusing on his sport, his college career that will take him into the NFL he doesn't have the normal life a lot of other people have and is and was an easier target. Football players aren't like other people, they spend hours and hours of their lives practicing, working on perfecting their skills..much like a ballerina practices endlessly or an Olympic hopeful gymnast dedicates their time and life to that one chance to go for the gold. They are not like the slacker who has lots of time to hang out at a local bar and flirt with every girl or guy that passes by. It's possible. It's believable. Trust me from where I sit.. it's very possible.

Why do people stalk? Why do they pretend and use fake names? Why is a crooked letter and each person has their own reason.  Usually they feel they can't get close enough by using their own identity. Sometimes, often...they are married or there is some reason they can't physically talk to the person and often they are just too chicken shit to face them face to face. Sometimes, they like the game itself and the power it gives them that they can connect "get to" someone so deeply by just using their words that they are the most important person in that person's life. Sometimes they both become addicted to the relationship.

Hey it makes a funny movie...

It makes a funny novel...

It's not so funny when you realize the person you love is a person with a brilliant mind and a strong hold over you.

Manti Te'o said that he became close to "her" because they had so much in common.

Well, that my friend is the nature when you are the person stalked as the stalker studies the person well so that odd, funny coincidences draw you together and make it easier for you to start up a conversation and for it to keep going and going and going.

Sometimes, it's just about chemistry... a relationship develops and even if there is this little voice deep inside of you that says "this is not normal" you frankly don't care because you become close and you'd miss that closeness with that person if they were gone. And, seriously how do you explain anything to anyone without them thinking you're nuts.  What's worse? To be the victim of a stalking game or to go public on national TV and admit you were duped.  There's a funny line from What's Up Doc about that but I am digressing... I guess.......on purpose... of course.

Hey...ever walk with the devil in the pale moon light on a balmy beach and know deep down they are not who they say they are and yet... you don't really care because they are fun and funny and life would get much more difficult and insane if they were who they really are? (long story... lol) still even funny stories take their toll on your emotionally and that's why I keep the little paper in my notebook to remind me.

I do respect smart people who have their own crosses to bear and I respect funny people and I really respect great football players and he is a great football player and a great prospect for any NFL team looking for a bargain when his name comes up in the draft. And, unless he was part of the "game" he was staked and should not be penalized for that as being stalked is not walk in the park.. it takes a lot out of you.

"A stalker tries to control a person by keeping them or her in a state of constant fear" and that would include asking for prayers for sudden illnesses and a broken refrigerator that is running ...

Smiling. I obviously have a sick sense of humor and forgive way too easily. Forgiveness is a good trait to possess.

But, hey if someone comes up to be and they are a storm chasing, screen writer that likes astrology...forgive me if I run the other way and don't trust them too much ;)

As for Manti Te'o had he not been one heck of a football player worthy of being a finalist in the Heisman Trophy this would not be a big story. It would be just another story, a story like many that we never hear about of a neighbor talking to his hot neighbor online pretending to be a guy in Kansas City.

I only really care who drafts him and am curious what will happen to him and his career. Somewhere there's a team that will overlook the drama and go for the gold. Other teams... will look elsewhere and his status could easily, predictably drop. What a deal..

I so love football...

http://espn.go.com/blog/notre-dame-football/post/_/id/13708/manti-teo-was-talking-to-man


Anyway... I'll be back to cover the "winter storm" that is supposedly going to form according to Greg Fishel and it is the kind most difficult to predict as it's sort of like those stealth stalkers... they are out there hidden in the darkness... the models say they exist yet do they really?

Do you see it? The storm? I don't really see it when I look at the last good visible of the day. But it's out there....... and it's coming to the Triangle and other parts of the south on Friday.





Besos Bobbi............... wishing on a real winter weather before I head south again.






NWS Raleigh Remembers the January 19, 2005 Ice Storm TOO... in their Forecast Discussion..



There is a saying "great minds think a like" and that is true, but in this case it's more a matter of all meteorology minds think a like.

Always looking for that analog year... storm or experience...

The NWS out of Raleigh, NC put out a carefully worded "forecast discussion" this morning that says basically what I blogged yesterday...down to mentioning IN THEIR FORECAST DISCUSSION the use of the 2005 Raleigh Ice Storm as a reminder that sometimes a minimal amount of precipitation can have high impacts across an area.

Note they put this out today, not yesterday when I waxed poetic on the 2005 Raleigh Ice Storm.


...A LIGHT WINTRY MIX STILL POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY EVENING...

THE TREND OF THE MODELS CONTINUES TO BE TOWARD A FLATTER MID/UPPER
WAVE SOLUTION AND VERY LIGHT QPF... FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY EVENING AS
THE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE TENNESSEE AND LOWER OHIO VALLEY REGION
ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS TO THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. VERY COLD ARCTIC
AIR WILL BE IN PLACE. HOWEVER... MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING FOR A
SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM. YET... WITH SUCH COLD AIR IN PLACE FRIDAY
BEFORE THE LIGHT PRECIPITATION EVENT UNFOLDS... THIS COULD TURN OUT
TO BE A MINIMAL PRECIPITATION / BUT HIGH IMPACT EVENT (I.E. THE
19JAN2005 LIGHT SNOW / HIGH IMPACT EVENT)... WHEN RDU MEASURED 1
INCH OF SNOW WITH 0.04 LIQUID EQUIVALENT / WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE
MID 20S DURING THE AFTERNOON.


The threat of ICE and/or Black Ice is too strong for them to ignore and they  most likely will post a Winter Weather Watch to be on the safe side. Either way... pay attention NOW and don't wait to plan your day until Friday morning if you live in the area I call RDU Land.. or RGH if you take the train.

"Assuming" models do not change and show a drier air mass... they continue:


"ALTHOUGH THE MODEL 1000/850 AND 850/700 THICKNESS FORECASTS CONTINUE
TO SHOW DECENT SPREAD... THE FAVORED 00Z/EC CONTINUES TO INDICATE
THE PREDOMINATE P-TYPE TO BE LIGHT SNOW NW (1280/1535M THICKNESSES)
...LIGHT SNOW WITH SLEET IN THE I-64 CORRIDOR (PARTIALS IN THE 1280S
AND 1540S - ENDING WITH 1300 AND 1550 OR SO). SURFACE WET BULB
FORECASTS KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S ALL DAY FROM RALEIGH WEST AND
NORTH THROUGH THE PIEDMONT INTO THE BLUE RIDGE. THIS WILL BE THE
AREA WHERE MEASURABLE SNOW AND SLEET IS FAVORED... WITH A
CHANGE-OVER TO LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR FREEZING DRIZZLE BY SUNSET OR
SO (AS WE LOSE SATURATION IN THE ICE NUCLEATION ZONE ALOFT).
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF AROUND AN INCH APPEAR POSSIBLE. THIS IS
WHERE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY EVENING IN LATER FORECASTS (ASSUMING THE MODELS DO NOT
COMPLETELY DRY UP)"


Way too many parallels....for even the NWS not to mention it and as I said YESTERDAY.. that storm and the lack of preparation for it has become the monkey on the back of every meteorologist forecasting for this Raleigh-Durham area.

And, that is why you should read my blog.... because I blogged on this yesterday morning!

Bottom line being I often talk on the trends a day or two out before other official sources will bring them up. Forewarned is forearmed as they say.

I also point out why it "might not work out that way" just as much as their is a possibility it could happen that way..

And, we still don't know today, less than two days away, if we will get snow, ice, freezing rain or very little precipitation but the possibilities are there and that is what weather forecasting is all about.

12 Hours From Now... note the snow possibilities near the coast of OBX :) ...to the north of it.
Now that would be a wild place to watch a snow storm from for a weather lover :)




They are currently "brining" the roads and notifying parents of early school closings on Friday. I had a rather unusual childhood and my mother, an artist, kept us home often when the weather looked bad. Although my teachers hated this, from the perspective of being a mother I'd like to say this about that... Keep them home ...if you can. If you don't work full time and or are home or someone can stay home with them...why complicate life by sending to school...worrying on them and racing back across town around the time the snow/ice/sleet might fall to try and get them home safely just so the Wake County Schools don't have to worry on making up a cancellation day. Trust me, as a one time substitute teacher, there are going to be a lot of teachers calling in sick tomorrow. IF you can keep them home ...do it... make it a  3 Day Winter Holiday and be done with it! If you want them out of the house for a few hours and the school is a few blocks away, let the school or which ever teachers show up babysit them for a bit... because no one is going to be doing a lot of learning tomorrow even if they hold classes. Trust me. Been a teacher, been a substitute teacher and been a mother racing around trying to pick up children in a Category 1 Hurricane that looked like it would be a distant offshore tropical storm... Do what works for you and for your kids.   Dismissal at 11:30 AM... yeah right (rolling eyes)!

Meanwhile it is sunny but very, very windy this morning. I can feel the cold air the moment you get near the window. Okay, maybe the heat is on too high but I don't like layers...

I will update this blog with more thoughts on this coming "Winter Weather Event" later in the day or this evening. Have to tell you I think it's kind of silly calling a possible storm an "event" because the kid in me still thinks a "winter weather event" is going to see the Ice Capades... not a possible storm with the possibility of power outages.

Winter Weather Event:



VS

Winter Weather



Just my thoughts...

Besos Bobbi