A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!
Thursday, June 28, 2018
Summer Time Heat Ridge. Distant Tropical Wave E ATL. Home Grown Trouble Down the Road in GOM CLOSE IN or E of FL?
3 Amigos over the USA
Look for storms to pop later today.
Nice wave off of Africa.
Really short post today. I suggest you read yesterday's blog as the thoughts expressed there are still valid. Today the name of the game over much of the USA is the HEAT GAME. Hot weather aka Summer in all it's glory. I'm going to personally try and embrace SUMMER for now and waiting for the tropics to bubble more.
Heat Ridges can be kind of boring, exhausting and they suck all the air out of everything. They also provide awesome summer storms that pop up late in the day filling out skies with clouds climbing up high, turning dark and then letting go with bursts of rain, wind and often downed trees. They come out of nowhere like an old friend knocking at the door or the sounds of a fire truck racing down the street. Enjoy em. Live in AC or go to the beach or go out for ice cream in the evening when the sun goes down. That's my best advice. If you hate the hot weather, leave town (you'll need to travel far) or use the AC and save money elsewhere. Drink water.
As for the tropics I suggest you turn your head far to the East to some incredible waves fighting their way West trying to stay together despite cool water and Saharan Dust. This last week in June feels more like late July weather wise and some of the waves are coming off way higher than they should for June. Impressive waves. Worth watching. You got nothing else to do if you like tropical weather. There is a possibility that the GOM will become active VERY close in somewhere between Nola and Houston. And, off the East Coast of Florida is the area that was spit out over the Outer Banks but did not form and did not travel up to the NE and lingering around blocked by the huge High to it's North it's wandering around close to shore drifting South. Also worth watching.
As for me going out today to get some exercise before the heat heats up and I hibernate the rest of the day before thinking on going out this evening. Awesome sunset last night in Raleigh. You don't get them often here like this and trust me it got way better but I wasn't in the right place to get a good shot. But beautiful all the same against the Carolina Pines.
I'll be back when there is something specific to say. Have a great day!
Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter
https://www.facebook.com/bobbi.storm.5
Ps. Maybe I'll have some Tequilla with lunch?
Long Island Iced Tea?
Hmmnnn time will tell.
June 27th. Tropics. Thoughts Around the Web Show Our Unique Perspectives. Where is Development Next? Strong CV Waves & Strong Weather in US
Note to NHC....
Never follow inconsistent runs of the Euro.
Worth noting something is there....
....but it's hard to see.
Between a rock of shear...
sitting in warm water.
Could it stick around?
Is the set up right?
But this is the wrong guy?
Up close.
Uno
Itsy Bitsy Bikini on the beach.
Dos
Hmnn too early, too soon.
Nice wave.
My thoughts.
In truth the GFS beat the EURO on the NC X
People ignoring CV Waves....
Because press on cold water...
...silly cause it's really just too soon.
June to soon.
chris taught me that........
But great waves for June.
Let me say one thing here on the cold water by Africa. It wasn't there, it was warm as in warm like 2017 water temperatures and then suddenly the water temperatures flipped and went colder. Why? I'm more curious on the "why" of cooler water in June than anything else. Will it continue or flip back suddenly to warm water in August and September when we look to this part of the world to produce long tracking hurricanes? We don't look in June so why do I care? And, if the models didn't see it cooling do we worry on what the models didn't pick up? I'd worry. Why? Because the waves coming off are as Jim Cantore likes to say "robust" and well formed. I'd rather have cooler water with extremely well developed and well stacked tropical waves as properly aligned waves go further vs falling over because they are tilted. If a wave is well developed (as in can rock a bikini on any beach anywhere) then the air is allowed to evacuate properly and they will grow in size and intensity with names that will be remembered for years down the road. A few years back we had the perfect set up and nothing happened. Why? Warm water and low shear were there so why didn't we get Donna the Remake? Because.... the waves that shot off of Africa were poorly developed, multiple centers at different levels and as they moved West they basically tipped over and could not wrap up properly into anything of significance. Cool water with incredibly well stacked waves worries me more than warm water with poorly formed waves. Keep that in mind. It may come back to haunt us in the last week of August or early September.
Yellow X Over NC - Development Near OBX? 10 - 20% Chances Something Could Develop. Questions on Cool Water By Africa in the East Atlantic and Why You Shouldn't Really Care. Makes Great Click Bait and a Researcher's Dream But Close In Hurricanes Could Happen in 2018. Despite the Headlines Waves Keep Rolling Off of Africa. Come September We Need to Remember Climo Usually Wins.
Woke up this morning to the site of a Yellow X on the NHC 2 Day map just to the West of me. I always joke that Greensboro gets more weather than Raleigh and obviously that includes yellow 10% areas of possible development from the NHC. Some models spin this up and spit it out into the Atlantic where it moves in Derecho manner across the open water zooming out to sea. Some models do have it following the warmth of the Gulf stream close up the coast but off the coast sucking in as much energy (available heat from warm water close in) and sliding up towards the banks of Newfoundland. The EURO is more bullish on this system than the GFS that does not see anything of consequence evolving. Remember that as it will be interesting to see which model read this set up better than the other. Well, interesting for those of you who find that interesting ;)
So let's look at the models.
Using the 850 mb relative vorticity version here of Euro model to try and show the exact "center" of this possible tropical disturbance I'm showing three images below. Again, it is not currently tropical but it may present itself as tropical later in the forecast period. Confusing I know but it's the only real show in town so going to explain it as best as I can in a simplistic way. The orange splotch over NC is the yellow X with 10% chances over North Carolina.
It then shoots it out near OBX into the Atlantic.
Kind of like spitting out a watermelon seed...
It's on it's way the next day.
Fast moving blip.
Could it attain TD status?
Possibly.
Water there is warm.
Remember this map above for later discussion.
For our purposes today there is warm water there.
It has a very narrow window to develop.
Sustainability is a big word used often these days in other arenas of discussion, but going to use that word here today in relation to tropical development as water needs to be warm enough to sustain tropical development. Kind of that simple. It also needs low shear that will not interfere with development. If you have a well developed low pressure area move over the warm waters off of the Carolinas where there is low shear it has a window where it could develop into a more truly tropical system.
There is something about the way these low pressure systems over land and how they evolve as they hit the warm water that sometimes spins up a named storm. This is a perfect example of how a set up can produce a tropical system given the right circumstances. And, this is why I am more worried about the water temperatures close in to the coast on our side of the world in June and July than I am about the water temperature near Africa that is historically still cold this time of year. Again, sustainability is a factor and evolution is the process that can make a difference when it comes to Homegrown Tropical Systems. The set up is not ideal, but it is there enough to warrant the low numbers given it from the NHC; that being 10% in the next two days and 20% in the next five days.
Perhaps the GFS feels there is too much shear there?
Currently today there is severe weather on the maps.
Watches and warnings up from NWS.
Live News feed on Twitter.
There are three points to take away from this blog today. The first is that we currently have a "Yellow X with 20%" chances on the NHC map for a possible, fast forming, fast moving system that could take on tropical characteristics. Many are asking if this could be Beryl, other's see a Tropical Low or Tropical Depression while others see nothing of significance forming or to talk about. Time will tell who is right, but Dabuh watches the surf along with the weather so anything that brings the surf on is of significance to him.
Two the over concern with the cool water temperatures out near Africa in late June is a matter of Academic significance and scientific discovery. It matters little how cool or hot the water in the East Atlantic is if you live in coastal towns that have a history of home grown development close in giving little warning time before landfall and making huge coastal impacts. Over the very warm waters of the GOM or Florida hot water and low shear close in can be the best set up available for rapid intensification of a developing tropical system. Watch how fast Wilma intensified just off shore of the Yucatan and one can only imagine what it would be like to have had satellite imagery of the Labor Day Hurricane that formed in the Bahamas in 1935.
When we talk about ACE it is basically the sum total of the intensity of the hurricane season as a whole. That often includes intense hurricanes that form in warm pools of water in the Eastern Atlantic early on and far away that tend to turn NW out into open waters becoming beautiful ocean spinners. They are also beautiful in that they spare the East Coast and the Islands direct hits such as last year's Hall of Fame winners Maria and Irma. There are years where ACE is high and hurricanes happen everywhere yet make landfall nowhere. Those are golden years for hurricane researchers to learn more about the various stages of development and steering conditions that impact hurricanes. However they often stay far away from land, yet oddly years with overall low ACE can present dangers close in that leave their imprint on the coastal towns for years and the list of those storms is long. So yes on one level we will (in theory) have less long tracking CV Hurricanes moving WNW slowly at 15 MPH giving us photogenic images of true Atlantic Hurricanes. On the other hand it means nothing as to what the chances are for landfalling hurricanes in Florida, South Carolina, North Carolina or the Mid Atlantic States in the same places slammed by Hurricane Sandy that came up out of the Caribbean, across Cuba and surfed her way North over the very warm Gulfstream. A look at 1985 is another excellent example of just this sort of problematic years where hurricanes made landfall often yet most formed close in and few formed near Africa. The Southwest Carib was mostly shut down as this year could be as well as shear there is high. Two systems formed out near Africa and made it across, yet many formed closer in and there was a traffic jam of landfalling hurricanes.
Ask anyone who went through Gloria....
...how memorable 1985 was.
Keep in mind Gloria formed in the heart of the season.
When water by Africa is at it's warmest.
Gloria formed September 16th.
Climo almost always wins.
It's really not about quantity but quality.
Thankfully it could lessen the danger to the Caribbean.
Cooler waters by Africa means less early hurricanes.
The Islands are rebuilding slowly.
Florida is covered with blue tarps still.
They can use a break in tropical action.
But it means little to the the SE, GOM or NE.
Look at the map below.
June, July and August are about W of 55 Degrees.
Usually, most years.
Note the comment below:
Chick knows Carolina weather.
Again ACE is an academic term and we love to throw it about online and use it as a measure for how "active" a Hurricane Season may be or how busy it was in retrospect; it also makes great headlines and click bait in quiet times such as June and July. In real time you need to worry on what may be knocking at your door after rapidly developing close in the way Andrew did after wheezing it's way across the Atlantic constantly in danger of having the NHC pull the plug only to blow up in waters closer to the coast the same way the Labor Day Hurricane did in 1935. There was NO Ace until late August in 1992 when Andrew developed, yet we spent years rebuilding in South Florida after Andrew.
Yesterday Allan Huffman posted his thoughts on this topic of water temperatures being below normal close to Africa, yet pointing out that the cool water pool of water ends at 55 degrees West. Is the cup half full or half empty? There are two ways to look at every question and we need to not let our guard down about the 2018 Hurricane Season that will hopefully, thankfully not be as active as 2017.
Watch the discussion that followed.
If you are not on Twitter...
...you should be.
With all it's annoyances....
...Twitter is a great place for real time discussion.
Rob from www.crownweather.com is 100% correct and people need to not let their guard down because there is a current anomaly of cold water near Africa as it doesn't mean that the danger of hurricanes forming close in (especially in this particular year I'll add) do not pose a serious threat and people need to prepare properly for the 2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season. It also doesn't mean that come September we will have to remember hurricanes form in the East Atlantic the way Gloria did in 1985. I'll write on this more over the next few days. But it's true and Bastardi mentions it often that no models showed the dramatic decline of warm water in the distant Atlantic and that makes me wonder how good the models really are when it comes to long term forecasting especially with regard to this year. Often they are great, however in swing years as this one may be if the much whispered El Nino develops, but some years have contrasting signals and their own unique problems so I beg you to take this year and every year seriously and do what you do need to do to get a hurricane plan set up for how you would deal with a landfalling hurricane or very, slow moving strong Tropical Storm that may dump copious amounts of rain and slam your area with tornadoes. Let's leave the scientific terms used for evaluating a season to the academics and the researchers and prepare as if this is the year that Andrew or Gloria is going to come knocking on your door!
Oh and #3 .... despite cool pools of water by Africa and high levels of Saharan Dust the waves over Africa keep on coming. The last one, the newest one earned a purple splotch on the maps we watch to see where development could happen. A little smirk there yesterday on that last wave. The one behind the smirky one has quite the structure, however it's going to plop down in mighty cold water way too early to expect development just yet.
Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter.
If you are wondering how I am dealing with a Yellow X over my head... I made a tropical breakfast of Avocado Toast and Mango Slices ;) A girls got to do what a girl's got to do . . . and am loving the cooler weather on the balcony listening to the excited birds singing while waiting on the rain to fall.
Summer ...Hot Days, Stormy Nights. Carolina Summer. Will Something Form Off the SE Coast? Maybe. Which Model Do You Believe? 100s in NYC on July 4th or Tropical Trouble Off SE Coast? Models ... Hmnn.
In the Tropical Caribbean above.
In the steamy, warm Carolinas below.
I woke up early this morning and watched the sunrise in Raleigh. Tall clouds off in the distance were illuminated a bit by the bright morning sunrise portending more weather to roll through the area later in the day. Last night a system slid across into the area from Greensboro to Durham and then it kept on rolling all the way to the beach. Should have gone to the beach. Wilder storms the further East they rolled exiting into the Atlantic with stark images tweeted and retweeted online last night. In truth I had a really nice day yesterday in the Raleigh area where despite the intense heat it was beautiful. See the picture above in the parking lot outside the Trader Joes in Cary, NC. This is not a black and white photo below. Love the way the pines look like black lace against a gray sky.
\
Before.
Few hours later.
After.
It really is beautiful up here in this neck of the woods. The beach is always there. It was a nice, warm sunny, Sunday and then it was not as evidenced by the image above. Last night Mark Sudduth posted this spectacular illuminating tweet on Twitter a few hours after the storms rolled over my place where I sat on the balcony and watched the rain fall and listened to the cacophony of watery, musical nirvana. I love the rain. I love thunder. Yesterday the Carolinas offered it all in one summery package.
In the satellite loop at the top you can see the typical storms down near South America (our hemisphere's version of storms coming off of Africa) and the swirl of the ULL in the Caribbean (something spins ..) and coming off of the Carolinas is a storm system that leaves behind a vague signature that is sometimes prone to spinning up some small system similar to the early BOC weak systems wandering west into Tex Mex. This time of year there are 2 spots where tropical fluff stuff tends to form and more often than not it is usually insignificant. Sometimes they can get out of control like yesterday's storms in the Carolinas and be stronger than expected. As this year June feels more like July and it's late in the month let's go to this beautiful, timeless graphic from The Weather Channel. Usually the Crepe Myrtle is our late summer star keeping bursts of color everywhere until leaves begin to turn colors. Some years it burst into color early such as this year in the same way we are having late July heat in Raleigh in late June. So let's look at July in the Tropics. Where do storms form?
The EURO model has been pushing a possible tropical event off the Carolinas later in the forecast period but not a long ways off. I'm not super keen on this model currently or any model until I see something that shows me it's not suffering from heat stroke. It's very plausible that some mischief could form in that region as we will have another series of storms later today and what's in the Plains now is coming our way later in the week. Add in a moderating "cool front" is moving through dropping out high temperatures down to the high 70s or low 80s for 1 day this week. Obviously that "front" is going nowhere fast and will die out leaving a front boundary off shore with low pressure likely to the South of the deep High pressure to the North of it. This is a classic set up where pressures begin to fall and tropical trouble could occur. June usually begins showing tropical fireworks in the GOM and BOC and July moves the arena a bit further to the East off shore in the Bahamas or along the SE coast. In 2014 Arthur pulled this off, however I'm not convinced that we are going to see such a system. Either way something will try to spin up off the coast and it's worth watching. Nothing much else to watch other than the progression of Tropical waves moving off of Africa adding more moisture into the mix battling the dry Saharan Dust. Note the graphics Dabuh put up showing what is there vs what might be there is you are buying into the EURO solution. Usually the EURO is a top seller and favorable product.
Friday. Tropical Thoughts to Think On While Staying Cool This Weekend. African Waves and Pin Ball Machines.
Keeping this simple today. Please feel free to read yesterday's post that has more solid information. The main point to take away from today's blog is that there is a wave moving through the Atlantic into the Caribbean as I type this post. Another strong wave is leaving Africa later today. It is a process and when you get a wave cruising through the Caribbean that sailed through cool water and Saharan Dust you do not count out the season as "nothing to worry about" because Academics discuss degrees of water in June and how much ACE we will end up with later in the year. To an academic numbers and details are exciting. To a homeowner or someone who lives in a poorly maintained apartment house near the coast those details mean little if your bayou is going to flood or your roof is going to blow away in a hurricane. ACE is something we often talk about online. Do not concern yourself with it if you live in Hurricane Country. Concern yourself with how you will secure your property and where you will hunker down or evacuate to if a hurricane makes it to your port of call.
As for our wave entering the Caribbean.
This is what the NHC says about that.
Note they used many words.
Follow the orange "ball" as it moves into the Carib.
As my friend Dabuh says they often come out of the stealth mode they are in when traveling through the SAL. Note the cold water colors shown in blue with variations in the blue (cold water) and yet when the wave got to warmer water it blew up. Then the shear at the door post of the Caribbean tries to kill it but enhances it and then it wobbles West into the heart of the Caribbean. Something could surprise us or nothing could come from this wave. But, there is another wave behind it and another wave behind that. Check Dabuh out... no one knows waves to surf or track like him. https://twitter.com/DaDaBuh
Think of this time of year the way you remember a great pinball machine. One ball dies and you miss your opportunity. Then you pull the plunger and shoot out the next ball, and the next ball after that until you get one ball that you use the flippers properly and spend a long time watching it bounce about wracking up ACE and there are even times when you get more than one ball to play with as you continue on and on. And, that is what the hurricane season really is like. ACE is that ball you played with for the longest time. Ever play pinball? Try it. Some cute new places where Millenials and Baby Boomers hang out. It's obsessive much like tracking tropical waves.
Stay cool. Have a great weekend. Those gorgeous sunset pictures on Twitter, Facebook, Instagram and Snapchat the last few days along the SE coast were enhanced by bits and pieces of SAL that made it to our world. Where SAL goes tropical trouble often follows. It's a really large High setting up in place and the waves coming off may be hindered by the cooler water but they seem to be healthy waves.
Huge High.
As for #NationalSelfieDay.
That's me.
Last week in the Florida Keys.
Hurricane Monument.
1935 Labor Day Hurricane.
Actually was Home Grown Trouble.
A year with lot's of close in storms.
Miami was hit 3 times in an El Nino Year
1926, 1965, 1992
Great Miami Hurricane.
Hurricane Betsy.
Hurricane Andrew.
Don't get lost in academic terms.
Preparation is the key.
Be #hurricanestrong.
Have a great weekend. Enjoy the sunsets. Find a cool movie or a breezy beach if you can. And as I said yesterday... always be yourself and do the things you love and be Hurricane Strong ;)
Location: Miami, Raleigh, Crown Heights, Florida, United States
Weather Historian. Studied meteorology and geography at FIU. Been quoted in Wall Street Journal, Washington Post & everywhere else... Lecturer, stormchaser, writer, dancer. If it's tropical it's topical ... covering the weather & musing on life. Follow me on Twitter @ https://twitter.com/#!/BobbiStorm
