A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!
Thursday, June 28, 2018
Summer Time Heat Ridge. Distant Tropical Wave E ATL. Home Grown Trouble Down the Road in GOM CLOSE IN or E of FL?
3 Amigos over the USA
Look for storms to pop later today.
Nice wave off of Africa.
Really short post today. I suggest you read yesterday's blog as the thoughts expressed there are still valid. Today the name of the game over much of the USA is the HEAT GAME. Hot weather aka Summer in all it's glory. I'm going to personally try and embrace SUMMER for now and waiting for the tropics to bubble more.
Heat Ridges can be kind of boring, exhausting and they suck all the air out of everything. They also provide awesome summer storms that pop up late in the day filling out skies with clouds climbing up high, turning dark and then letting go with bursts of rain, wind and often downed trees. They come out of nowhere like an old friend knocking at the door or the sounds of a fire truck racing down the street. Enjoy em. Live in AC or go to the beach or go out for ice cream in the evening when the sun goes down. That's my best advice. If you hate the hot weather, leave town (you'll need to travel far) or use the AC and save money elsewhere. Drink water.
As for the tropics I suggest you turn your head far to the East to some incredible waves fighting their way West trying to stay together despite cool water and Saharan Dust. This last week in June feels more like late July weather wise and some of the waves are coming off way higher than they should for June. Impressive waves. Worth watching. You got nothing else to do if you like tropical weather. There is a possibility that the GOM will become active VERY close in somewhere between Nola and Houston. And, off the East Coast of Florida is the area that was spit out over the Outer Banks but did not form and did not travel up to the NE and lingering around blocked by the huge High to it's North it's wandering around close to shore drifting South. Also worth watching.
As for me going out today to get some exercise before the heat heats up and I hibernate the rest of the day before thinking on going out this evening. Awesome sunset last night in Raleigh. You don't get them often here like this and trust me it got way better but I wasn't in the right place to get a good shot. But beautiful all the same against the Carolina Pines.
I'll be back when there is something specific to say. Have a great day!
Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter
https://www.facebook.com/bobbi.storm.5
Ps. Maybe I'll have some Tequilla with lunch?
Long Island Iced Tea?
Hmmnnn time will tell.
HEAT ALERTS - Take Them Seriously! Tropics Quiet in the Atlantic. EPAC Busy.. Solar Eclipse Stamps .. Hurricane History. Be Aware and Prepared
Those are the watches and warnings above.
The heat index as of 6 pm Friday is below:
A "cold front" will be here on Tuesday meaning the temperatures will go down below 90 degrees. You kind of take what you an get in July when you have warnings up for dangerous heat in your city. It's hard to understand how people fear hurricanes that can be prepared for and yet do not take high heat warnings seriously. More people die during these sweltering times as well as during the dead of winter yet they worry less on a hurricane because their city hasn't been hit in 20 years. Miami went from 1965 to 1992 before experiencing a real hurricane (Floyd in 1987 doesn't really count) and then a generation that experienced Andrew obsessed on hurricanes every hurricane season. And then people forget and after they forget they begin to believe their city doesn't really get hurricanes. Trust me after Hurricane Matthew people in Jacksonville won't have their guard down this hurricane season. But what about Tampa that hasn't had a direct hit in many years. Even Hurricane Donna that dealt them a tough hand made landfall to the south near Naples Florida.
(It's so hot I chose this map above because it looked cool)
(Like a cool pool in the Florida Keys...)
The high temperature in many places causes a heat inversion trapping in the pollutants and pollen that may mess with your allergies. If you are prone to such problems stay inside in AC on those days or catch a flight out of town. Since catching a flight out of town is not always possible for most of us... stay home in AC. Take medication if you need and wait it out. Soon cold fronts will bring cooler temperatures at night and with patience the dog days of summer will give way to Fall. I'm writing this blog a bit late today as I woke up sick with a rare asthma problem. I say rare as lately I haven't had any problems, but the weather has been problematic in Raleigh this July.
And in truth there isn't anything going on in the Atlantic Basin to speak of beyond tropical waves moving west under a sheet of SAL while the EPAC is on steroids this week. There are so many storms some of them do not fit on the NRL site. Usually when the EPAC is busy the Atlantic is not and you count a week to ten days before we see any action. There has been some talk of something forming close in during that time, so as always this time of year keep on top of your local weather source. In today's world with APPs on our phones there is no reason to be surprised by the weather. As a matter of fact my phone sends me weather warnings and that was programmed into my phone not something I do. So there is no excuse to be surprised by any sort of weather danger. How do you know the difference between feeling hot, edgy and tired and seriously being affected by the heat? Good rule of thumb below.
Err on the side of caution if you feel ill.
In Miami it's hot but there's always a breeze.
Between the perspiration and the breeze it's not bad.
But in places like Raleigh it's stifling hot today.
Fayetteville NC hit 101 degrees today.
Now to the tropics as they are today.
It's obvious we have strong waves in the Atlantic.
And the EPAC is BUSY
So busy.....
...see NRL below.
The models are below.
They are up on Spaghetti Models.
It's worth noting the Global Tropics Hazards Map shows possibilities.
The Tropical Formation Percentages shows purple.
Strong waves but .....
....stronger SAL for now....
However, the NHC erring on the advice of the models isn't buying it.
As always check their site as they are the bottom line.
Take Tampa for instance... You haven't seen afternoon thunderstorms until you have lived in Tampa. Deadly cloud to ground lightning strikes that snap and dance across the sky. Even for a person raised in Miami a good afternoon thunderstorm in Tampa catches your attention. There's a reason they call their ice hockey team Tampa Bay Lightning. And don't laugh about having an Ice Hockey team in Florida, because one of the coolest places to be in South Florida is at a Florida Panthers Game. My Grandma Mary grew up in Tampa, she once saw lightning come in through the fireplace scaring her so much that for years she hid under a bed when there was lightning. My Great Grandfather was said to sit on the porch outside watching the clouds form and watching the lightning. I guess we can see whose genes I got.
Read up a bit on hurricane history.
A good place to begin if you don't own all his books like I do...
https://www.jaybarnesonhurricanes.com/
I'll probably reread the NC Hurricane History book this weekend that he wrote as I pretty much know the Florida book by heart. A cold glass of Iced Tea and a good book to read. A pretty good way to pass a hot day in July if you ask me.
I'm on meds right now so I'm a little all over the place, forgive me I'll be back to my normal self in a few days. I keep dreaming on Seattle but that's not happening and if anything I'll be "home" in Florida for a bit come August. On days like today I'm happy to be here cooking for Shabbos and we have friends for dinner and all in all life is good.
I wanted to share something here with you that I wish I had known two days ago at the post office. I came this close to buying some of the eclipse stamps on sale to send out a package to a friend of mine in it's path who has been a bit crazy on the eclipse passing over Charleston. Who knew they change colors. Is that awesome? I saw it in my feed earlier today. If anyone has kids or grandchildren who like interesting stamps this would be the one to use if you are sending them a birthday card. Yes, some people still do that...
I know I'm going to try and buy some on Monday.
I love stamps and I have some very scientific minded grandchildren.
Okay last year I send my grandson a tee shirt with germs on it.
Well, he refers to them as bacteria.
Hard to beat that......
Somehow Lego doesn't really cut it.
Stay tuned.........
The good news for tropical lovers is that online today people have been arguing about pre season forecasts regarding this hurricane season. They are arguing whether Don would have gotten a name years ago and if MJO will ever show up in the Atlantic. From years of observing meteorology friends I can honestly say when it gets mean online... we are about two weeks to go before the Atlantic comes alive. Have a wonderful weekend, may you be surrounded by love and have the basics you need and a little more to enjoy life. Stay cool... Fall is coming. And, along with Fall comes football and real hurricanes.
New Wave Off Africa. Models. Discussion. Remnants of TD4 Moving Towards FL as RAIN. Will New Invest 95L Make It Past SAL into Carib? Hmnnn Stay Tuned. Memories of Dania Beach - Boomers - Jaxson's Ice Cream Parlor (still there... go fast)
Still at 20% in the 5Day
For a really wild ride loop this link below:
This post really is for Miami kids, though pretty sure others can relate in their own way. Miami kids grew up bored in the summer begging their parents on Saturday Night to "please can we go to Disney tomorrow??" and parents begging off just as fast. Yes, they bought that Florida Residence Pass that was good in the Dog Days of August. And, yet who really wants to pile in the car at 5 AM and drive up the Turnpike with kids fighting in the back seat and then spend most of the day til fireworks at 9 PM then drive back to Miami arriving home around 1:30 AM (if you were lucky) so usually unless Aunt Martha wanted to go see Disney, parents passed on the free entrance the Florida Residents got early on and later was just a huge discount? Yes that was a long run on sentence and a whole lot easier to deal with than 3 kids fighting on the Florida Turnpike for a long, ride to Disney.
Kids being kids didn't give up that easy. "Can we go to Lion Country Safari?" which was only up the road a few counties. IF they were lucky the parents agreed to go to Playword which was a ToysRUs type institution or agreed to make a backyard BBQ and set up the Slip and Slide. In the later part of the Century lol parents settled on Boomers a popular, local theme park.
Go Carts and Rollercoasters.
And lots of other stuff too..
If they were really lucky their parents agreed to go to Jaxson's for ice cream after. Years back Dania was the place to go on a Sunday afternoon for Miami kids whose parents would only go so far up the road. It's still the place to be as Ice Cream never goes out of style.
Everyone wanted to go to Disney, but sometimes on a Sunday afternoon you were lucky enough to get Boomers. South Florida will most likely get afternoon thunderstorms aka "boomers" as the left over remnants of TD4 as the wave that is left from that TD is now forecast to wander, weakly through the Florida Straits and across South Florida. And, that was more believable than the early "hit Florida with a hurricane" scenario the GFS was trying to sell earlier in the week. Flash Sale in July in the tropics gets you weak, westbound tropical waves not an E ticket ride at Disney that mostly old timers will get. Sort of like the gold label on the Halo Top Ice Cream this summer. If you haven't tried Halo Top, you probably will one way or the other. Everything has it's day in the sun, even XTD4 limping along being followed like Mary's proverbial lamb by the ULL.
Where ever XTD4 goes the ULL is sure to go.....................
So where does this leave us with regards to the new wave and the new model runs that are also started out "take me to Disney" or "I want to ride the Hurricane at Boomers!!" and will most likely get a trip to Walmart to buy a puzzle with a pretty picture of some tropical scene in the Caribbean and with luck has a chance of avoiding Cuba and Hispaniola and making it into the GOM (maybe) as some form of tropical moisture. A much more logical summertime trip in July than the whole "Can we drive the whole length of US1 this JULY!!!" Long run on sentences for models that show African Waves making it to our part of the world.
The EURO has yet to really weigh in with anything extremely exciting and that in truth probably what will happen with a July wave trying to swim across the ocean. Anyone watch that Amelia Earhart special last night? You see where I'm going. And, most likely the EURO being really cool would want to go to Universal to see the Harry Potter exhibit way more than Disney World. Sorry Walt, but time marches on.....
What is now currently above.
Where it may be going down the road.
This image from www.tropicaltidbits.com was posted on www.flhurricane.com on a message board yesterday and is pretty valid today too. Why? Because I want everyone to focus on the track of this new wave (possibly Invest 95L should it get that far) for the next 3 days. And, then we can start making long term plans for a kick ass summer vacation destination somewhere. It's worth saying that this morning's run is way more logical than yesterday's and can't wait to see what it's showing tomorrow.
Today's run gave up the East Coast Long Drive....
..and stays low going into the Caribbean.
And IF this wave gets designation that's logical in the short term.
Because Cousin SAL is still there being a Kill Joy for CV Waves.
Going to Spaghetti Models shown above..
Note TD4 remnants trying to flare up.
The wave departing from Africa.
A sea of Saharan Dust.
Another wave embedded in dust further W
And that's the tropics in July
One reason Jim Williams ignores them mostly til August.
But every once in a while a wave comes along...
...and does the dirty deed and gets the D name anyway.
Location: Miami, Raleigh, Crown Heights, Florida, United States
Weather Historian. Studied meteorology and geography at FIU. Been quoted in Wall Street Journal, Washington Post & everywhere else... Lecturer, stormchaser, writer, dancer. If it's tropical it's topical ... covering the weather & musing on life. Follow me on Twitter @ https://twitter.com/#!/BobbiStorm
