A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!
Tuesday, November 02, 2021
Wanda. Yellow Circle Seeds an EPAC Storm. Kind of the Story of the Year in the SW Caribbean
The hard to see red symbol is Wanda, mixed into that whole cloud mess on the other side of the ocean. It's also kind of hard to notice the yellow on the edge of a beach abiout to jump into the Eastern Pacific that is at 0% chances in the Atlantic.
But if you move on over to the Eastern Pacific part of the NHC Main Pages you will see our little X is healthier and is being given 30% chances of development in there. Actually another yellow circle pops up there on the 5 day as seen below.
This has really been the story of the year on many levels and will be researched by many to see why the East Pacific received so many of the low, westbound waves that normally potentially dangerous SW Caribbean storms that gave them a longer season than normal. And, when I say that I mean normally as the Atlantic goes into high gear the East Pac slows down, there's a normal ebb and flow of energy and yet this year the seedlings for the dangerous SW Caribbean Storms all slid across the isthmus into the Pacific.
In general the 2021 Atlantic Hurricane Season was either STORMY WILD or soooo slow. It had a sputtering sort of nature where everything formed in groups and you can see that by the graphic above. June and early July were busy, whereas later in July and August it was not. Late August and September were busy, though many were "shorties" that barely lasted yet did pump up the number of actual storms we had even if most of you cannot remember their name. Since the beginning of August it's been quiet. Note if you take away all the blue dots and only look at the orange dashes you'll see we really didn't have such a busy season. It's really a matter of prespective. Quality over quantity and in this case we lucked out as Larry and his friend Sam both stayed out in the Atlantic putting on a colorful show on the satelitte imagery but not thrashing our beaches or drowning out cities so for that we are grateful. It reminds me a lot of how morse code works, dot, dot, dot, dash, dot, dot ...well you get that if you ever learned Morse Code which I did but I do not really remember; a cute neighbor boy was involved who wanted to ran cables from our houses to each other so we could "talk" when we were young. (He was probably a boy scout now that I think about it)
I digress... because there really isn't much to talk about. If I go to Windy.com I'm prone to watch the images for cold weather and who is going to get some snow.
Why does the blue (really cold air)
stop at the Mason Dixie?
Kentucky gets it but not Tennessee?
Just odd things always amaze me on graphics like this.
But winter is coming.
Tropical storms are not.
So have a great day.
Malls have Christmas decorations up...
.... no real crowds where I live.
But the msuic is nice.
TJ Maxx is a winter wonderful.
Pink Flamingoes are in storage.
It's the sign of the times!!
Not proofing........
....I have a headache.
Wish I was in Key West this morning!
Sweet Tropical Dreams,
Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram
Ps... Where are you spending the holidays?
Thanksgiving blends into Chanukah (early) this year.
Christmas... flows into New Years Eve.
I know... we haven't even eaten turkey yet for Thanksgiving.
2021 has been on Zoom Zoom time.......so do you have a clue?
Christmas Island - Jimmy Buffett.wmv By the way the locals used to call the small island to the West of Key West, but they developed it and renamed it Sunset Island. But it's really a place...........there's also another one, we have lots of names locals use for things down on the rock.
While things are quiet and not much is going on I'm trying to put links to sites to use and people to follow on social media who are excellent sources of reliable information. In his case, he is prone to unique, original ways of presenting valuable material that helps you understand better some of the finer points of a particular situation be it a current set up or historical information. If you were playing a paint online game you'd be trying to figure out what color line to draw across the Miami to West Palm Beach metropolitan area and that's concerning as that area is overdue for such a hurricane. Many in Miami and the Ft. Lauderdale area would argue that and point to all the trees down and their roof damage from Hurricane Irma in 2017 and that's because they fail to remember they did not get the EYE of Irma nor the brunt of it's power, they had all that damage from a brush with Irma that made landfall in the Florida Keys but due to it's immense size delivered a wicked punch to North Miami Beach, Walnut Creek and other places far to the North and East of where Irma made landfall. A similar smaller storm would not have impacted the Miami area if it moved quickly through Marathon in the Florida Keys so remember with hurricanes not only strength but size matters!
Also what is worth remembering is that the general Miami area was in the Cone often for both Irma and Dorian and Matthew scared Miamians greatly even if the cone showed it could stay offshore. The NHC did a good job with those hurricanes and they did veer away from a visit to Miami. This is a very DANGEROUS set up as what happens after these sort of brushes with danger is that people begin to believe Miami is safe and all the hurricanes will veer way from the coast as Dorian and Matthew did but many such as the 1926 and 1928 Hurricanes did not, nor did Betsy, Katrina nor Andrew that made a due West beeline for Miami and never took the road that David did in 1979 when it took aim at Miami and then veered up the coast. Why is this important? I knew many people in Miami during Andrew that refused to believe that Andrew would not do what David did and it would go somewhere else.
Miami is a city that always has new people who have moved into the area and never experienced a Hurricane. Old times tell them about Donna and Betsy and Andrew and they think they will be fine, they will not be if a Major Hurricane makes landfall at Hollywood Beach or Aventura just North of Miami but all part of the same metropolitan area demographically and otherwise. Also we have a huge transitory population of people who are they college students or employed in the HUGE hotels and restaurant business that makes up a giant slice of the Miami economy!
Sadly Andrew taught me that the worst case scenario can and does happen. For years I kept this poster in my living room as a reminder that the worst case scenario can play out and a major hurricane can and will make a landfall in your living room if you live in Florida long enough. Note that also goes for Savannah, Jacksonville and Tampa!
Orange ... high pressure.
H for Huge High.
A nice wave over Africa...
There's online chatter on something in 10 days or so...
.. maybe down in the Caribbean headed North.
Or by the Yucatan.... or out in the Atlantic.
Models keep showing long term possibilities.
But nothing expected to form for the next 5 days.
Use this time wisely for Hurricane Preparation.
This IS Hurricane Season.
June Hurricanes have happened making landfall...
... up from the Carib towards Florida.
Currently the huge High Pressure is in place, so use this time wisely. As I said in a previous blog, my friend Sharon was sure we would get a hurricane in the very dead summer of 1992 when the first named storm didn't show up until Mid August named Andrew. Sharon rinsed out bottles of Publix Soda and filled them up with tap water and stored them away and bought inexpensive bottled water when on sale. When Andrew changed course for Miami, as she thought it would do as she didn't trust that weak cold front in August, she had close to 80 bottles of water stored in her garage to use for drinking or washing. After Hurricane Andrew on Miami Beach far from the eye but getting strong impressive winds, we had no water for a long time and we had no electric even longer and we had no cable to watch TWC until late November.
Be like Sharon, don't be that guy at Publix buying perishable deli and ice cream because you are sure this is just a big scare and the next big Major Hurricane aiming for Miami will turn away and crash into South Carolina as Matthew did...... Prepare now! Buy canned food, water, non-perishable food and stock up on your medications. Don't be that person left at Publix who went too late and is standing at the empty aisles staring at cans of oysters and sardines.
Thanks for your patience while I was on vacation in Miami visiting my family and attending a wedding for Sharon's son. It was a long road trip after a few days in Charlotte for business before the trip to Miami, a stop on the way back in Savannah and I'm finally back in Raleigh. I learned years back from friends of mine who worked at the NHC that the best time to usually take a vacation is actually early June, before the season ramps up :) Learn from the best ...
I should be updating every day from now on so follow me as we cruise into the height of the Hurricane Season when SAL begins to let go of his dusty hold on the Atlantic and the Huge High Pressure suddenly fades away and yellow circles pop up South of Cuba or off the coast of Florida in the Bahamas and as always near the Yucatan.
Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram.
Ps. A dirty little secret is that Miami Beach was trashed by Hurricane Andrew, all the street signs, store awnings and often AC units on condos crashed to the ground below. Massive Ficus Trees were uprooted with most of the yard, pine trees on Pine Tree Drive fell onto homes. My neighbors roof on Flamingo Drive took flight and landed in tact in the back yard of a house on Pine Tree Drive near 41st Street. Bits and pieces of plastic from the Dry Cleaners, the Used Bookstore and Epicure then on Arthur Godfrey Road landed all across my parent's house on 37th and Royal Palm Avenue. My neighbor next door, a photographer who was working for Newsweek got back from covering Homestead and asked what happened on Miami Beach as it wasn't mentioned in the news. As Andrew approached Miami, just before it made that itsy bitsy dip to the South that saved most of downtown Miami... it's approaching wind and wild surf took aim on Miami Beach. I'm grateful that despite all that wild damage (we had no Traffic Lights on 41st Street for half a year, they all were gone with the wind) we were spared the horrific damage the eye did in Homestead. So while thinking on all the debris you had from Irma remember it made landfall near Big Pine Key NOT in Miami nor Hollywood Florida! Prepare now! Use this "quiet" time wisely!!
All the damage in the old blog below was from Miami Beach. They hired people fast to clean it up and laid low and tried to stay out of the news and to get back up and running for the 1992/93 Tourist Season. They were not as lucky in 1926... but that's another blog.
Yes most buildings were "fine" but everything else went whoosh with the wind... and that beautiful Polynesian style roof some friend of mine had... small square houses do best in a hurricane in Florida... no power for weeks, no cable for months... debris sat until late October after the Andrew Hurricane.
Tropics Thursday. Quiet Now But Is Trouble Waiting In The Wings? What's Your Favorite Hurricane Movie? Summer Here and Everyone Wants to Go Somewhere But Where?
NHC sasy they see nothing.
I see convection in GOM
And a weak stalled out front.
That gave it up to the huge High.
And I see a stronger wave off of Africa.
Earthnull below.
Loop below.
Cliff notes version.
New wave off Africa may be the one that models show juicing up the atmosphere and possibly developing. Or that moisture just flows up from the Caribbean. Where does the High move, go or hold up tells the story if we get something and where we get something. GFS keeps aiming at the GOM beaches but only time will tell. Strong high, for now Florida looks safe but looks can be deceiving.
Okay that is the end of the real Tropical Update, the rest you can enjoy if you'd like to read and enjoy the links, thoughts and the way my messy mind works.
This is going to be a short blog today because there's not much to say and I want to do a short blog for my friends who enjoy shorter vs longer. So I figured for the bored, creative types going out of their mind who chose not to take trips and go places maybe I could find something for yu to do, or you to do with yout kids or maybe you pooch likes watching you color. It wasn't easy. First I put "Mandelas Hurricane" into my browser and it offered me a book on Nelson Mandela. Obviously Google and I were not on the same page. Good book by the way, read it but not the type of Mandela I wanted. Oh and when I said "short' I meant I was going to write more than talk tropics and show mutliple models you can see elsewhere. I really meant "Old School BobbiStorm" and obviously I have a problem spelling that word more than Mike does Spaghetti... really it's a thing.
But this shows hows much the word Hurricane and the concept of being in the eye of a hurricane is burned into our brain and our consciousness as a metaphor for a trial, a tribulation and something we learn from after the storm has moved on and that's why she said in Twister "when you said you chased Tornadoes I thought it was a methaphor" which is a great line but my experience on Google today shows the reality of why she made that statement. She was also a therapist and they think different from you and me, analyzing everything we say, do and even our body language.
So here was an example of my trip through Google this morning and I do mean that metaphorically. I'm obviously in the mood for a trip but where and when and for how long remains the question and in my neck of the woods Covid cases are on the rise climbing high, not declining so I may have to take a visual trip.
Would love to track a hurricane and would love to be in a hurricane because that's who I am, if you thought I liked Fair Weather you are obvisouly reading the wrong blog. Some people want a hurricane to escape from life and others want it to knock down and blow away their school, or their kid's school (I have a friend who actually wished that all the time) and some want to stand outside in the storm then watch it get quiet and see the clouds disappear and enjoy every single moment of quiet staring at the wonder of it all yet knowing the back side of the storm will reappear and slap you in the face faster than you could ever imagine. It's awesome. And, as much as I love the eye I really love the bands, the bands of rain and watching things go flying in the wind and there is a sense of awe and wonder that can't be explained to someone who doesn't understand that. Some go to sleep, some hide in a closet and others stand there staring in wonder. Which one are you?
Note the progression of images as Google tried to find to read my mind but obviously not too many people want to color in a mandela of a hurricane and there might be a good product to make and sell online or not. Or just make your own or watch Twister and there really is a huge lack of really good hurricane movies. I mean how many times can you watch Key Largo? Actually, I'm going to watch a movie today my ex-husband recommended about Cuba and Florida as he said he thought of me and knew I'd love it so that's on my To Do List.
The trailer is below. The images of my trip around Google are also below. I'll update if and when some thing happens today. It's gonna rain in Raleigh and our temperatures are forecast to be lower so maybe I'll just sit and watch the rain from my balcony or take a walk or whatever.
Have a wonderful day. I'll be back sooner I think than many realize as the EPAC is trying hard to produce a cyclone. This is like watching someone give birth in slow motion, it ain't pretty. And yet the Atlantic with it's Dust Storm will probably produce something sooner rather than later so I just showed the 2 day because I'm a believer that Mother Nature can't wait to throw something else at us.
okay nice but no tho that bottom left one is pretty
okay that was better we got weather at least.
Oh wait I think Google got it!
Success tho really that's a boring Mandela
Or you can color it interesting.
Kind of like life.
Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram.
or
Which one do you want to watch? Do you have a favorite Hurricane Movie? Hurricane movie about hurricanes not life or boxing or well you get the idea. Because we don't metaphorically chase hurricanes in truth we chase them or hide from them. Which are you?
Father's Day Weekend. No Hurricanes Threatening Your Favorite Place So Enjoy It. Tropics Quiet. Do What You Love. Find Someone or Some Place to Love. Enjoy It. 2020 Hurricane Season May Rearrange It So Get Out There Now!
Two things I want to touch on briefly today and they are rivers in North Carolina that are peaking from heavy rains going into the Hurricane Season setting up a potential disasterous problem should we get hit by a large, wet hurricane this year. I say that because not all hurricanes are wet but they as they are often dangerous in different ways. Andrew was dry as a bone, yet it rearranged the landscape and was deadly, disasterous and memorable. The 1926 Hurricane in Miami was huge, wet and disastrous. Years ago I had a theme going that no two hurricanes were alike and no two seasons were alike; think I talked on Cabbage Patch Dolls a lot after being inspired by an incredibly unique, drop dead gorgeous guy. Inspiration is what it is ya know.
But it's true and huge Hurricane Floyd that whooshed past Miami on it's way to North Carolina delivered a knock out punch to some communities as did Fran, Matthew and Florence as well as a multitude of others I could bore you with but if you are interestered buy the Barnes book on Norch Carolina Hurricanes. 1996 was the year of stroll on by South Florida, do not stop and keep going to North Carolina as they all headed towards Mother Nature's favorite hurricane destination somewhere between Morehead City and Wilmington. If it was totally up to me I'd move to Morehead City for a number of reasons as the place just calls to me. The Bogue is more beautiful than Biscayne Bay and that says a lot. Feel free to Google the words "Bouge" and "North Caroliona" but I'm just saying that this pattern of huge, big, wet hurricanes coming on years when they already had historic rainfall is setting up for a possible problem and it concerns me. Can't shake it really and as everyone talks on 1995 because "look how busy it is" it really has more in common in my mind with the 1996 set up than the 1995 intensely caffeinated hurricane season. Again time will tell, no two hurricane seasons are alike even if they are similar.
Next, I'm concerned with all the distractions going on currently that people will dismiss the Hurricane Season because of the pandemnic and the protests and obsessing too much on CHAZ in Seattle (that's for my son in case he's reading) and no I don't mean Sonny Bono's son but the point here is while debating on which style mask to wear if you have to wear one or where you want to go as soon as "this is over" or the Presidential Election I don't want to touch at all ... people are distracted, tired and there is this sense of denial that "this can't happen" because we are too busy and honestly Mother Nature doesn't care about how tired you are or how wet you are (meteorologically) or how exhausted you are or who has Corona or who doesn't Mother Nature does what Mother Nature does and when the water is warm and the shear is forecast to be low and strong healthy waves move off of Africa in a season such as this one they will most likely go into the Caribbean under the HUMONGOUS High and head towards @icyclone's Hurricane Cottage in Pass Christian that has seen it's number of hurricanes already or they will find a weakness in the High and slide up along the East Coast scaring everyone and slamming into North Carolina. Oh, yeah we can have some nice ocean spinners as every hurricane season has dancing Fish Storms in the Atlantic.
So do you thing and prepare. Make a plan or at least a list and don't lose it. Send it to your Gmail or post it on the wall somewhere, do not write it on an old shopping list pad or in a note book where you forget it. Update the list as needed, especially with regards to any medicines you may need such as asthma, allergy or anxiety as this has been that sort of year already and I don't see any reason for it to end anytime soon just because we want it to end.
Note one of my favorite magazines that I tend to read online knows the Saharan Dust Outbreak is normal and nothing more. It's up there with Our State that is one of the best written magazines anywhere with much heart and feeling for this region of the world. You should check it out, and they do weather articles often. Good, honest hype free article below about SAL.
Mike has added a great link to his page and I don't just mean my Water Vapor Loop but a link on SAL that moves faster than your vacuumn cleaner. Yes, I am in a mood today. You're observant. Moving on along. There are many great sites online and you can Google them, but if you check Mike's site out often to see what's happening scroll down on the left side and you will find this site and the ever popular lightning site. Trust me I've stood out in a thunderstorm checking that site to see where it's moving, what's going on and waiting for the next big streak of lightning to make me go "WOW" and then check the site to see if it registered. Okay, not totally exaggerating there.
So as for me I'm going to take a walk or dance a bit for exercise or really who knows. I'm in one of those moods. Father's Day is coming and I'm putting together a package for my husband who is a Father, Stepfather and a Grandfather as well as a generally all round good guy who puts up with my love for weather and my moods and is always ready to jump in the car and go somewhere because I want to be at the beach when a storm is coming in or drive up and down the streets of Beaufort South Carolina so I can tell him over and over how much I love the Low Country and the South. But we are kind of grounded these days as we haven't taken any real road trips "because Corona" but at some point we will but for now my home base is Raleigh and it's not a bad place to be. The Flea Market isn't open :( but the Farmers Market is and it is what it is until things change.
Have a wonderful weekend and hope you find something to do that you enjoy and if you can't go travel to see your father, children or grandchildren or don't have any and even the dog is too lazy to want to go for a long walk then find something you enjoy and do it. All men matter! Find an Uncle or a Brother to call up and tell them how wonderful they are even if you have to lie a little, because really as much as you love your siblings they can drive you crazy more than any one else but you still love them like crazy). If you are an only child without children and sadly your father is no long with us and you have no Uncles well look in the mirror and tell youreself "DAMN I'M INCREDIBLE" and then go buy yourself something be it a candy bar at the dollar store or a red, weather radio on Amazon. You deserve it! We all do. Then wait til this is over so we can party like 1925!
Much love ....
... Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram.
Ps Hurricane History is Fran from the very busy 1996 Hurricane Season.
If you are still here, this is the bonus round ... the Extra Credit Present.
My daughter Dina loved this show and sometimes we'd watch it and it was very her and me in ways. I always loved the scenery and neither of us like to wait for things but over time you learn to wait when you have to but it turns out it was filmed in North Carolina in one of the areas here I love the most. I also love New Bern, but I'm digressing and while I'm digressing Oriental is beautiful too. The funny part about it is that it wasn't filmed in New England, but North Carolina. See Hollywood is like that it's lies and illusions pieced together, edited and packaged with slick soundtracks and sappy love stories but in truth you gotta go out there and find your own happy ending and if you can't find that find a place that resonates and that you love and then you will be happy. Well, unless a hurricane comes cruising at you like a cruise missle and no I am not going to show a Tom Cruise scene.
Tropical Depression 3 Forms Forecast to Develop into Cristobal. Where Does It Go? All Depends on Timing.
Tropical Depression 3 Forms.
Expected to become Cristobal.
Slow Mover in the short term.
As per NHC new forecast cone.
Cristoball be sipping Cafecito and working out.
Check out that form...
Early signs of banding.
We may end up with a Hurricane...
...but for now let's talk Tropical Storm
They may go with TD first.
Note the placement of the X
when looking at the Earthnull below.
93L has moved out over water.
Will we get an upgrade at 5 PM?
Possibly.
Stay tuned.
Check back often!
Keep reading if you haven't already.
Well this is about as close to "go for liftoff" as we get.
This is an image of the tropics today.
June 1st, 2020.
So busy we are looking for the C storm to form.
I want you to see the wide picture.
Something not being watched in Mid Atlantic.
Waves coming off of Africa.
And Invest 93L working it's way off the Yucatan.
Below is my fast CliffNotes version.
My longer discussion is below if you've got the time.
The video above shows my thinking currently on Invest 93 forecast by many to be Tropical Storm Cristobal down the tropical road; NHC at 8 am on the First Day of the Hurricane Season has given it a healthy, red 80% circle. I'm gonna leave the models to the Model Man that being Mike from www.spaghettimodels.com as he's good at getting that info out in a visual way. Next some discussion on the tropics today below. And, later today I'm posting a stand alone blog on the 2020 Hurricane Season but as I learned in Journalism 101 what is happening now is the news and takes precedence over a general public interest story.
Models do their generally Northbound movement.
Some then begin to veer off to the left or right.
Why is that?
Because it hasn't formed yet.
A grid Mike put up on Twitter.
Note the difference in TIMING
not just LANDFALL.
I don't usually quote Levi Cowan.
I respect him tremendously.
But his graphic shows what's in my mind.
To be fair in all our minds.
We are watching to see 93L make splashdown.
Until it does and until it forms and begins swimming.
Lots of options are on the table.
And I want you to remember this system has two parts.
This is a large envelope of mositure...
...circulating in a large complex
We are tracking the part that gets into the GOM
Timing evolves in real time as this evolves.
That's true.
Models make guesses.
I'll update model discussion later today.
Trying to keep this simple.
The key will be when and if it emerges into the Gulf. The Gulf States should monitor carefully. https://t.co/MaGsFL7cXL
I'm worried on the some what dead steering currents.
GFS shows a different evolution on THIS one run.
Pulls moisture further East.
And depending on what FORM this takes....
A sleek, small Tropical Storm
OR
A huge, juggernaut Subtropical?
OR
A hurricane? Let's wait and see on that.
I will update this blog on 93L later today as models come in and Invest 93L puts it's feet in the water and it's toes in the sand and the next set of models come in...
And, I will put out a long Part 2 2020 Hurricane Season Forecast with my own thoughts, just mine though I know from speaking to a few of the better mets around here many have some of those same years in mind when thinking on this current Hurricane Season? Why? Not because we copy each other but because we are all looking at the same data and the same history and coming up with similar ideas where this hurricane season is going but again it evolves in real time.
Prepare NOW.
And not going political but adding in here that with the current unrest and protests that have turned violent in some places curfews are going into place. Seriously 2020 just seems like the year of Stay Home Stay Safe and take a Staycation for this Summer. If curfews are in place, check out your local information as it's totally possible some will limit portable gas sales. I haven't checked into the details yet but someone told me it would be wise to keep some extra gas around in a safe way if this situation may impact you. Yesterday we went out for the day to my favorite vacation spot in Raleigh and hung out at the Farmers Market. Colorful, fun, friendly and beach music playing while shoppers were socially distancing with colorful playful masks and friendly from a distance. I bought bright sunflowers in a mixed bouquet one almost the size of my head. I got a huge freshly made orange juice with berries and cherries thrown in and stopped at Ulta that was open for the first time and quickly bought a few things in case the store has to close again or is targeted by what has become looting riots vs a peaceful protest of the murder of George Floyd. Some stores in some places are going to close to the public again to try and protect their businesses and that could make it hard to find some products because to be honest I saw a lady grab the last of the 90 roll toilet paper and run out of the Target in Minnesota while others grabbed large screen TVs. I suppose we all have our own priorities in a Pandemic during a Protest.... I bring it up because what happens if that happens in Houston and then they close the Target you shop in because of the protest/looting and not because of Covid?
There's a three prong problem here to work out and it's best to SHOP EARLY and STOCK UP for the Hurricane Seasson because Mother Nature don't care about protests or pandemics Mother Nature conjures up these storms and lets them rolle like a award winning bowler; except she's rolling a hurricane towards you not a bowling ball.
Stay tuned. Stay safe.
Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram.
Ps...figure we could all use some "silly" right about now.
2020 Hurricane Season - 1 Month til June 1st. A Busy Hurricane Season Forecast with Possible Landfall Patterns. Looking Back at 1999, 2007 and 1886 & the Indianola Hurricane Matagorda Bay Texas.
Remember when?
2017.... a year few of us will forget.
Could we see a replay of such a busy season?
Yes, it's very possible.
In 1886 before satellite imagery......
... 3 storms all danced close by as they did in 2017.
We know that from the track information.
Note the month of August below.
And know September had multiple storms too.
3 Major Hurricanes in August 1886
Storm #5
8/15 Hispaniola
8/20 Indianola
Storm #6
8/19 Jamaica
8/21 Cuba
8/22 Nassau
Storm #7
8/20 TS forms near Bermuda
Becomes a Cat 3...
Impacts George Bank
Vessels lost, ship damage.
Becomes a N Atlantic player.
The time frames overlap.
Landfalls overlap.
Imagine the satellite imagery today.....
Note 1886 is most famous for Storm #5
Indianola Hurricane - Matagorda Bay, Texas
Yes similar track to 1900 Hurricane...
Similar but different.
Something to think on as its a month til Hurricane Season.
So Happy May 1st! New Month here as we zip through 2020 always wondering "what's next?" as it's been a slow, motion train wreck since the virus began spreading across the country and masks became all the rage to show off your favorite team, hobby or level of hypochondria. Okay, seriously I've tried to go slow with news of a forecast busy hurricane season that many experts have predicted could include multiple landfalls along the US coast as highly possible. I don't like pulling the mask off the old Lone Ranger nor do I like pouring oil onto a fire or screaming "FIRE!" in a crowded theater but the time has come to get serious about the Atlantic Hurricane Season that begins one month from now officially, but can begin earlier in reality should something in the Gulf of Mexico or off the East Coast spin up impressively enough for the NHC to give it a name and begin issuing advisories.
Let's look at 3 possibly analog hurricane seasons that began early and ended way too late for most of us. Remember every hurricane season is unique, however many have commonalities from positive conditions that deliver a busy season to the similar tracks taken due to obviously similar atmospheric and oceanic conditions. They are other years I'm concerned on but going with these three today as they all were busy seasons when the water was warm, the wind shear was low (allowing for vigorous waves to develop into Major Hurricanes) and had similar tracks as predicted as possible by many concerned on this hurricane season.
Let's work backwards and begin with the 2017 Hurricane Season as it began extremely early on April 19th with a very early season system and multiple warnings in the media by experts that an early hurricane season doesn't mean it will be a busy hurricane season. That is true as often a May storm forms and then we wait until late August for the next storm to form but it's not rule that isn't always broken but a much repeated statement when a system pops up before the local networks have even begun airing Hurricane Preparations stories.
2017 was an odd year in that weather was in the news often and everyone watched in real time as New Orleans itself had a tornado in February. In June Tropical Storm Cindy made landfall near that part of the Gulf of Mexico to be followed by Harvey that made landfall to the West of there but slid back into the GOM and made a second landfall. Finally Nate made landfall on that general part of the GOM coastline making people in Nola and much of Florida and Houston and elsewhere wish the 2017 Hurricane Season would be one for the history books.
Next we have 1999 another busy hurricane season with tracks similar to the predicted areas of concern for 2020. Again we see long trackers and hurricanes aimed at the US coast as well as some Caribbean and Cuban activity. The first storm formed on June 11th and ended on November 23rd leaving many of us happy to see it go. With 8 hurricanes and 5 major hurricanes it was one for the record books. Also warm water, light shear and all the typical positive factors that bring Hurricanes to our door along the Hurricane Coast. As a trivia point it's worth noting Louisiana and Texas had tornadoes on Easter Sunday in April of 1999. Obviously I'm watching for years with similar severe weather prior to the Hurricane Season that coincide with other factors forecast for the 2020 Hurricane Season.
Now I want to go back into history ... far distant history to 1886 when the Atlantic saw a very busy hurricane season that when no less than 7 storms made landfall. The season began on June 13th and ended on October 26th, but it is worth noting the numbers are very similar to what is forecast for this coming year ... especially when you add in the 1886 Hurricane Season didn't have satellite imagery available so one can only imagine the additional storms that may have existed further from the coastlines nor not mentioned in ship reports; in those days if the ship went down with the storm there wasn't always a record of it being hit by a tropical system.
Note that all 3 of these seasons...
...look similar when glancing at the maps.
Each is different but many commonalities.
I cannot say enough about how horrendous the loss of life was from the 1886 Hurricane Season during a time when communities with busy, Boom Towns woke up totally unprepared for what the next day or two would deliver to their doorstep. In a time before Hurricane forecasting all they knew was the barometer was dropping and weather was moving in but rather than a typical afternoon thunderstorm a deadly hurricane packing winds of 150 mph washed away some communities such as Indianola Texas and many bodies were never found in small bayou towns along the coast so the death toll could be much higher. In those days when some single young man managed to survive such a catastrophe he got out of town fast whatever way he could and he didn't document his trip on Instagram... he simply left for greener pastures .... often ones where he decided a snow storm was better than whatever it was that just wiped his home off the map.
In 2020 we complain about how bad a long term forecast is because it was predicated that it was possible that the African Wave would develop into a hurricane and impact Georgia and it made landfall in South Carolina; oh my goodness the critics on Twitter and in WhatsApp groups go crazy. A storm tries to form down near the Yucatan and everyone debates if it will live or die off and doubts it can possibly become a strong hurricane than slams into the Florida Panhandle as a Category 5 Hurricane.
I'm not saying 2020 will look exactly as the above mentioned hurricane seasons did but I can tell you that according to the forecast conditions and track patterns expected it could end up looking very similar. What I can tell you is that unlike the citizens of Indianola in 1886 you will be given much warning way before it makes landfall, but before waiting for a Hurricane Warning to be posted you better be ready early this year. Unless something miraculous occurs, Covid-19 is expected to be a factor in our lives throughout this coming hurricane season especially early in the season. Supply chain factors have already become a problem for certain products such as the ever important paper products and protein from pork to chicken to beef being at some times hit hard. Note if you have a lake, river or any place to fish near you ... you may want to learn to take up fishing and if you are a vegetarian ... good luck with Tofu. If there's no tofu stock up on dried beans and pasta if you can find them... Oh, yeast is apparently worth more than toilet paper currently across the nation.
Recent quick trip to the Grocery Store.
We went during a rain storm yesterday.
A food Lion in Raleigh.
Extremely clean.
Aisles marked carefully for 1 Way travel.
Employees had masks and gloves on...
...so did the customers.
Publix moved into North Carolina.
Many transplanted Floridians live here.
As much as I love Publix... not as clean.
At the registers they wore masks... no gloves.
My husband ran in for some Kosher chicken..
... grabbed it, got out...got pictures for me.
They are limiting popular non-perishables.
Yeah that happened.
We are stocked... not going out for a while.
Well, for walks and exercise maybe.
But not shopping any time soon.
Amazon has been working well otherwise.
So I am begging you.......
....prepare EARLY for the Hurricane Season.
Every trip to the store by one extra thing.
Because I can't imagine how people will shop...
... if they have to wait hours to get into the storm.
With proper social distancing....
...and many items already gone.
It won't be pretty.
Prepare early........
... you can use non-perishables anytime.
That's why they are popular.
If you have a Panera type store near you.
Buy bread early, freeze it if you have space.
Yeast is gone and the bread aisles aren't full.
Okay, lot's of Dave's Killer Bread.
I buy it, use it sparingly.
Lasts, great bread but expensive.
The cheap white bread is gone, gone, gone...
One last note on 1886......
...a picture after the Fire of 1886 in Key West.
While they were spared hurricanes....
...they were in rebuilding mode from the fire.
A personal footnote to this discussion on 1886 is that it's the year my family moved to Key West. The timing was most likely dictated to by the 1886 fire that destroyed a good part of the town as people needed products and they were already there because of the Cigar Industry. A great, great grandfather was in the Tinware Business originally from England and as after the fire Key West insisted buildings have metal rooftops and that's how we ended up with tin roofs for the cat to walk on and how he established his tinware and crockery business while his sons traveled to Cuba often buying tobacco and involved in the cigar business.
So those are my thoughts. There are models showing a "low" forming off the East Coast and other long range models are trying to close off a low pressure system in the North Gulf of Mexico and down in the Caribbean there has been an on and off spin going on that isn't that uncommon in busy years to see. The Epac is forecast to come alive again soon with what should be a named storm.
Have you started making a list yet?
Please do so... a list for food, supplies and to figure out where you would go and shelter if you need to evacuate in the Year of Covid-19.
Good luck.
Prayers to everyone to stay safe, well and sane this weekend.
Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram.
Ps... check this video out, it's short and informative... packing of beef in tin cans began here apparently so next time you buy Spam for a hurricane... remember Indianola!
Location: Miami, Raleigh, Crown Heights, Florida, United States
Weather Historian. Studied meteorology and geography at FIU. Been quoted in Wall Street Journal, Washington Post & everywhere else... Lecturer, stormchaser, writer, dancer. If it's tropical it's topical ... covering the weather & musing on life. Follow me on Twitter @ https://twitter.com/#!/BobbiStorm
