A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!
Friday, May 01, 2020
2020 Hurricane Season - 1 Month til June 1st. A Busy Hurricane Season Forecast with Possible Landfall Patterns. Looking Back at 1999, 2007 and 1886 & the Indianola Hurricane Matagorda Bay Texas.
Remember when?
2017.... a year few of us will forget.
Could we see a replay of such a busy season?
Yes, it's very possible.
In 1886 before satellite imagery......
... 3 storms all danced close by as they did in 2017.
We know that from the track information.
Note the month of August below.
And know September had multiple storms too.
3 Major Hurricanes in August 1886
Storm #5
8/15 Hispaniola
8/20 Indianola
Storm #6
8/19 Jamaica
8/21 Cuba
8/22 Nassau
Storm #7
8/20 TS forms near Bermuda
Becomes a Cat 3...
Impacts George Bank
Vessels lost, ship damage.
Becomes a N Atlantic player.
The time frames overlap.
Landfalls overlap.
Imagine the satellite imagery today.....
Note 1886 is most famous for Storm #5
Indianola Hurricane - Matagorda Bay, Texas
Yes similar track to 1900 Hurricane...
Similar but different.
Something to think on as its a month til Hurricane Season.
So Happy May 1st! New Month here as we zip through 2020 always wondering "what's next?" as it's been a slow, motion train wreck since the virus began spreading across the country and masks became all the rage to show off your favorite team, hobby or level of hypochondria. Okay, seriously I've tried to go slow with news of a forecast busy hurricane season that many experts have predicted could include multiple landfalls along the US coast as highly possible. I don't like pulling the mask off the old Lone Ranger nor do I like pouring oil onto a fire or screaming "FIRE!" in a crowded theater but the time has come to get serious about the Atlantic Hurricane Season that begins one month from now officially, but can begin earlier in reality should something in the Gulf of Mexico or off the East Coast spin up impressively enough for the NHC to give it a name and begin issuing advisories.
Let's look at 3 possibly analog hurricane seasons that began early and ended way too late for most of us. Remember every hurricane season is unique, however many have commonalities from positive conditions that deliver a busy season to the similar tracks taken due to obviously similar atmospheric and oceanic conditions. They are other years I'm concerned on but going with these three today as they all were busy seasons when the water was warm, the wind shear was low (allowing for vigorous waves to develop into Major Hurricanes) and had similar tracks as predicted as possible by many concerned on this hurricane season.
Let's work backwards and begin with the 2017 Hurricane Season as it began extremely early on April 19th with a very early season system and multiple warnings in the media by experts that an early hurricane season doesn't mean it will be a busy hurricane season. That is true as often a May storm forms and then we wait until late August for the next storm to form but it's not rule that isn't always broken but a much repeated statement when a system pops up before the local networks have even begun airing Hurricane Preparations stories.
2017 was an odd year in that weather was in the news often and everyone watched in real time as New Orleans itself had a tornado in February. In June Tropical Storm Cindy made landfall near that part of the Gulf of Mexico to be followed by Harvey that made landfall to the West of there but slid back into the GOM and made a second landfall. Finally Nate made landfall on that general part of the GOM coastline making people in Nola and much of Florida and Houston and elsewhere wish the 2017 Hurricane Season would be one for the history books.
Next we have 1999 another busy hurricane season with tracks similar to the predicted areas of concern for 2020. Again we see long trackers and hurricanes aimed at the US coast as well as some Caribbean and Cuban activity. The first storm formed on June 11th and ended on November 23rd leaving many of us happy to see it go. With 8 hurricanes and 5 major hurricanes it was one for the record books. Also warm water, light shear and all the typical positive factors that bring Hurricanes to our door along the Hurricane Coast. As a trivia point it's worth noting Louisiana and Texas had tornadoes on Easter Sunday in April of 1999. Obviously I'm watching for years with similar severe weather prior to the Hurricane Season that coincide with other factors forecast for the 2020 Hurricane Season.
Now I want to go back into history ... far distant history to 1886 when the Atlantic saw a very busy hurricane season that when no less than 7 storms made landfall. The season began on June 13th and ended on October 26th, but it is worth noting the numbers are very similar to what is forecast for this coming year ... especially when you add in the 1886 Hurricane Season didn't have satellite imagery available so one can only imagine the additional storms that may have existed further from the coastlines nor not mentioned in ship reports; in those days if the ship went down with the storm there wasn't always a record of it being hit by a tropical system.
Note that all 3 of these seasons...
...look similar when glancing at the maps.
Each is different but many commonalities.
I cannot say enough about how horrendous the loss of life was from the 1886 Hurricane Season during a time when communities with busy, Boom Towns woke up totally unprepared for what the next day or two would deliver to their doorstep. In a time before Hurricane forecasting all they knew was the barometer was dropping and weather was moving in but rather than a typical afternoon thunderstorm a deadly hurricane packing winds of 150 mph washed away some communities such as Indianola Texas and many bodies were never found in small bayou towns along the coast so the death toll could be much higher. In those days when some single young man managed to survive such a catastrophe he got out of town fast whatever way he could and he didn't document his trip on Instagram... he simply left for greener pastures .... often ones where he decided a snow storm was better than whatever it was that just wiped his home off the map.
In 2020 we complain about how bad a long term forecast is because it was predicated that it was possible that the African Wave would develop into a hurricane and impact Georgia and it made landfall in South Carolina; oh my goodness the critics on Twitter and in WhatsApp groups go crazy. A storm tries to form down near the Yucatan and everyone debates if it will live or die off and doubts it can possibly become a strong hurricane than slams into the Florida Panhandle as a Category 5 Hurricane.
I'm not saying 2020 will look exactly as the above mentioned hurricane seasons did but I can tell you that according to the forecast conditions and track patterns expected it could end up looking very similar. What I can tell you is that unlike the citizens of Indianola in 1886 you will be given much warning way before it makes landfall, but before waiting for a Hurricane Warning to be posted you better be ready early this year. Unless something miraculous occurs, Covid-19 is expected to be a factor in our lives throughout this coming hurricane season especially early in the season. Supply chain factors have already become a problem for certain products such as the ever important paper products and protein from pork to chicken to beef being at some times hit hard. Note if you have a lake, river or any place to fish near you ... you may want to learn to take up fishing and if you are a vegetarian ... good luck with Tofu. If there's no tofu stock up on dried beans and pasta if you can find them... Oh, yeast is apparently worth more than toilet paper currently across the nation.
Recent quick trip to the Grocery Store.
We went during a rain storm yesterday.
A food Lion in Raleigh.
Extremely clean.
Aisles marked carefully for 1 Way travel.
Employees had masks and gloves on...
...so did the customers.
Publix moved into North Carolina.
Many transplanted Floridians live here.
As much as I love Publix... not as clean.
At the registers they wore masks... no gloves.
My husband ran in for some Kosher chicken..
... grabbed it, got out...got pictures for me.
They are limiting popular non-perishables.
Yeah that happened.
We are stocked... not going out for a while.
Well, for walks and exercise maybe.
But not shopping any time soon.
Amazon has been working well otherwise.
So I am begging you.......
....prepare EARLY for the Hurricane Season.
Every trip to the store by one extra thing.
Because I can't imagine how people will shop...
... if they have to wait hours to get into the storm.
With proper social distancing....
...and many items already gone.
It won't be pretty.
Prepare early........
... you can use non-perishables anytime.
That's why they are popular.
If you have a Panera type store near you.
Buy bread early, freeze it if you have space.
Yeast is gone and the bread aisles aren't full.
Okay, lot's of Dave's Killer Bread.
I buy it, use it sparingly.
Lasts, great bread but expensive.
The cheap white bread is gone, gone, gone...
One last note on 1886......
...a picture after the Fire of 1886 in Key West.
While they were spared hurricanes....
...they were in rebuilding mode from the fire.
A personal footnote to this discussion on 1886 is that it's the year my family moved to Key West. The timing was most likely dictated to by the 1886 fire that destroyed a good part of the town as people needed products and they were already there because of the Cigar Industry. A great, great grandfather was in the Tinware Business originally from England and as after the fire Key West insisted buildings have metal rooftops and that's how we ended up with tin roofs for the cat to walk on and how he established his tinware and crockery business while his sons traveled to Cuba often buying tobacco and involved in the cigar business.
So those are my thoughts. There are models showing a "low" forming off the East Coast and other long range models are trying to close off a low pressure system in the North Gulf of Mexico and down in the Caribbean there has been an on and off spin going on that isn't that uncommon in busy years to see. The Epac is forecast to come alive again soon with what should be a named storm.
Have you started making a list yet?
Please do so... a list for food, supplies and to figure out where you would go and shelter if you need to evacuate in the Year of Covid-19.
Good luck.
Prayers to everyone to stay safe, well and sane this weekend.
Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram.
Ps... check this video out, it's short and informative... packing of beef in tin cans began here apparently so next time you buy Spam for a hurricane... remember Indianola!
Please add it to your subscribed sites on YouTube.
As mentioned yesterday in my rant...
Many of us go to YouTube for news and updates.
I missed today's Cuomo Press Conference...
With 2 daughters living in New York I watch it usually.
... I'll check it out on YouTube after proofing this blog.
In 2020 we have many options.
From the Apps we use to the websites we use.
From the people we subscribe to ...
... to the links others share with us.
As I said yesterday "choose wisely"
Currently nothing is in the tropics to worry on...
We are in Severe Weather Season still.
A tornado warning exists today in Georgia.
That system moves into Florida and the Carolinas soon.
Off Africa there are your early pre-season waves.
And in the N Atlantic there are remnants of the last system.
Today's blog post is all about the Hurricane Season of 2020. I promised that yesterday and keeping my promise today. I'm giving my thoughts on our current situation with five important reasons that this coming Hurricane Season is forecast to be stronger than average and to have a higher potential for landfalling systems than other years when we could have a plethora of named storms that stay out at sea or fall apart victim to wind shear that is not forecast to be a large factor this year. That said, note wind shear forecasts are often iffy and subject to change but the patterns that exist and are evolving show a disturbing picture for what we will be facing sooner rather than later. The official start of the Hurricane Season in the Atlantic is June 1st, but very often we have an early season storm that makes landfall before the season officially begins. Mother Nature doesn't always obey the calendar rules as we all know when we see Springtime snow or Severe Weather in the Winter before Spring officially begins. Just as we can have 80 degree temperatures in North Carolina in March before a cold front races through and the temperature drops we may easily see Arthur in May not sometime in June.
When discussing "forecasts" for the Hurricane Season I need to mention Covid-19 because they will at some point collide and we must deal with it in an appropriate way. In the same way I'm giving an example of how forecasts and hyped headlines can change rapidly when dealing with Covid-19 from no worries on using a mask to cities and states advising you must wear a mask if you go to the store our outside in public. In the same way forecasts for a possibly weak season based on cool water temperatures may lead many to letting down their guard to suddenly having the rug pulled out from below them when a Major Hurricane such as Dorian is forecast to track dangerously close to their home towns in Florida. Forecasts are based on facts known at that time and they are subject to change so watch for updates frequently and learn from everything including our battle with Covid-19.
As promised yesterday I would buckle down today and begin a serious look at the 2020 Hurricane Season. It's been hard for me to jump into discussing this early as I normally do as we are all going through a difficult time dealing with the fast moving stream of information regarding Covid-19. Many of us have been personally impacted by the disease and the deaths of people we know and love as every day brings a new tragic story as well sometimes a happy story of someone leaving the hospital and going home that had previously been given low chances of surviving the disease. There seems to be a randomness to Covid-19 in that sometimes a young healthy person dies despite the discussion on older people being most at risk and then you read a story about some older person in their 90s who survived the disease. I believe all of the hype on how it mostly kills older people was over played and gave many younger people the misconception that they were almost invincible and that they only had to worry that their grandparents didn't die. While that is true on some levels, many young people have health conditions that go unnoticed or they simply were not able to fight off the disease. How often have you read about a high school football player who collapsed on a field in what seemed to be the healthiest phase of his life to only later find out he had a hidden heart defect that caused his death? The same such person would be a high risk if they contracted Covid-19 as often once in the hospital battling the disease the heart or the kidneys begin to collapse leading to a very long stay in the hospital or a devastating death for the family members who never expected he or she would succumb to the disease.
While mentioning the fact here that sometimes "facts" can be misconceived or misunderstood or sometimes later after learning more "facts" change - it's worth remembering that when looking at forecasts for the 2020 Hurricane Season. Sometimes, though rarely, weather conditions change unusually fast and a colder than average winter on the East Coast turns to a mild, winter without any accumulation of snow and despite the predictions made by experts "something changed" and that happened recently when the basketball season ended only to be followed by other sports stopping and theaters closing as we evolved into a world where the landscape looks different from any that we could have ever imagined. Oil dropped to a DOLLAR a BARREL and while gas is extremely cheap most of us are not currently commuting anywhere so supply and demand slammed an already difficult time for those who were used to being rich from the high price of oil. The Stock Market at all time record highs suddenly hit a wall and fell for days on end while many watched the value of their portfolios drop way lower than ever expected. While many said a correction was coming, no one saw the free fall that happened when the reality of the Corona Virus that was renamed Covid-19 became apparent and impacted the Stock Market.
Forecasts are predictions based on what we know currently as facts. Facts can often change.
Let's look back at the early Pandemic Predictions:
Cruise ship travel would most likely be okay.
No need to wear masks or gloves just stay a safe distance from others.
Social Distancing rules evolved from 4 feet to 6 feet to people feeling safer staying home.
Air Travel shouldn't be a problem was an early prediction and then.... we learned more facts.
Things changed.
The picture above is from the New York Times.
(Why isn't she wearing gloves?)
Hmnn ....
Note how spaced out passengers are here.
On Monday my best friend's two adult children who live in New York had to find a flight to Miami for the funeral for their father who died suddenly during the Covid-19 crisis in Miami to be with their other two siblings living there. The flights on JetBlue cost them $600 round trip each and there were only 50 passengers allowed on the plane with everyone spaced out wearing mandatory face masks and gloves. On Tuesday I watched with my best friend on Facebook Live that was live streamed the small funeral for friends and his many grandchildren to watch. Life in 2020 seems unreal but after a few weeks this has become "normal" and I mention it as I know many of us are going through similar sudden decisions on traveling to a funeral or wishing we could go to someone's house to comfort them and maybe bring a casserole but we are now limited to talking on Facebook Messenger, sharing pictures on Instagram and making a brief condolence call.
Below we have Alaska Airline crew members.
(Why don't they have on masks?
I know they are now wearing them.)
Maybe they thought the mask images would be scary.
A Seattle trip squeezed in fast to see my kids there.
Because I knew things would change fast.
Spoiler Alert: They changed even faster than I expected.
Faster than forecast... if you get my drift.
So while reading 2020 Forecasts for the Hurricane Season.
Remember they are forecasts.....
....they may change in real time.
They may verify... they may not.
Let's hope they do not because the forecasts are wicked.
Wicked in that all signs seem GO for a strong hurricane season.
Why you ask?
Showing five reasons below today.
I'll continue to list other reasons soon.
Today I'm posting graphics from 2 meteorologists.
And every day or two I'll post two more experts.
You can compare and contrast their forecasts.
Today I'm starting with Crown Weather and CSU.
Why those two?
Because I have always admired their forecasts.
I admire and respect many others.
I'll post them too over the next few weeks.
Today I'm listing 5 Factors to remember.
Again I'll post more factors in future posts.
1. El Nino is not expected to be a factor this year. Neutral or more likely La Nina conditions will exist and it is possible if not probable that La Nina may show up as we move into August and September. IF that happens, it would favor a more active, dangerous hurricane season.
Note No El Nino doesn't mean La Nina ... maybe it stays Neutral but La Nina is looking possible.
2. Sea Surface Temperature forecasts continue to be warmer in areas that would produce hurricanes.
3. Forecasts for areas in Africa that may have more rainfall than normal could reduce the impact of SAL (Saharan Dust) but remember that SAL predictions are always prone to error and seasonally it usually disappears at the worst time as we move towards late August and early September. While watching it reign in May and June and July we often end up with a plethora of headlines giving the general public a sense of a false reality that gets ripped out from under them when SAL begins to disappear at the worst time possible Currently SAL may me mitigated by moist conditions nearby in Africa. Think of this as being told you don't need to wear a "face mask" and then being told you "could if you want" then being told you will not be allowed in a store without one and then being told it's better to wear one when out in public around others. Again remember this ...things change and often they sometimes change fast.
4. Signs in the Indian Ocean show we will have a strong hurricane season. Why watch the Indian Ocean? Because what happens in the Indian Ocean impacts Africa and what happens in Africa directly begins to impact us as we move into the heart of the Hurricane Season.
5. The forecast is for a lack of Wind Shear across many areas for this coming Hurricane Season that would allow strong tropical waves to develop into hurricanes without being torn apart by shear. We often see incredibly formed tropical waves make it across the Atlantic and yet as they battle what is wind shear they succumb to the shear the way a young, seemingly healthy young football player on the field during practice collapses as mentioned previously. Very often a very moist, large, messy tropical wave turns into a poorly organized tropical storm and then finding a fast sweet spot develops into a hurricane closer to our side of the world. But strong shear or negative conditions can literally topple the named storm everyone is worried on the way a large, tall, improperly secured crane topples over when hit with stronger than expected winds.
Below is Hurricane Debby's NOAA report.
Wind shear suddenly strengthened.
And Hurricane Debby toppled over like a falling crane.
There's more to the story but this is the official one below.
This old forecast track shows why people were worried.
An image of Debby in her "better days" before...
...wind shear began to strengthen.
I mention this as even now..
Shear Forecasts are often iffy ...
...and often Shear develops fast.
Or wind shear suddenly disappears.
Wind shear forecasts favor a busy hurricane season.
During El Nino wind shear protects some areas.
Especially the Caribbean and the GOM.
This year we cannot rely on that wind shear to be there.
I'll give more reasons I am concerned on the 2020 Hurricane Season later as we move into May and the concern for early season storms forming before June 1st becomes a reality.
But for now the 5 factors listed above are what I want you to take away from today's blog.
Someone I leaned to trust and enjoy reading is Rob from www.crownweather.com that I commonly refer to as "Crown Weather" as I learned over time and across many avenues of social media (as we go way back) to appreciate his cautiousness and when he shows concern to take it seriously. In 2017, 2018 and 2019 his Pre Season Maps were spot on and he nailed the locations Hurricane Florence would threaten eventually landfall as well as Hurricane Michael months ahead of the peak of the hurricane season. The year that Maria and Irma traipsed across the Atlantic, slamming into islands in their path and scaring everyone on the East Coast and Florida he drew those possible tracks in his Pre-Season maps. It really doesn't get better than that for picking up on current and long term trends and applying them to predicting where hurricanes may track and make landfall.
www.crownweather.com is a pay service, you can write him and ask for payment or donation information but it's better than the average information you will find on Twitter, Instagram, your family WhatsApp Group or where ever you get your general information. He posts regularly online on Twitter with excellent information. Note the people on TV in your local viewing area do a great job but honestly they rarely veer away from the official NHC or the CSU forecast shown below and until a hurricane is headed directly towards your town their information is informative yet basic. When you want better information with more details sometimes you gotta pay for it or really know how to find it online.
The link to Rob on Twitter
@crownweather (easy to remember)
If you see this picture you have the right person.
Understand Rob is a very good writer.
A good communicator.
It's good for meteorologists to be able to ...
...clearly communicate information.
That's important.
I'm using a few of his images below.
When I said shear could be low....
.... that would be a problem.
If the forecast verifies.
Note the areas below in blue.
If shear is low there....
It means waves turn into named storms.
And are not blown apart by shear.
How strong they would get is a question.
But the potential is there for strengthening.
Again graphics from Crown Weather.
Below Average Wind Shear is not good.
It allows hurricanes to form.
Often those regions in the Carib have high wind shear.
The wind shear protects the Carib and ....
......inhibits then from strengthening.
This would favor storms that track West...
..... into Central America.
Or they could drift over the Yuctan...
...as storms often do.
Then strengthen in the GOM
Once in the GOM ..someone gets hit.
Understand?
@bobbistorm on Twitter for any questions.
Below we have "peak of the season"
Note this would favor Caribbean/GOM storms.
Also storms coming at Florida from many directions.
Storms such as Cleo that came up from Cuba.
Or any hurricane that hits from the ESE...
...heading WNW
Look at Cleo coming up from Cuba.
Then look at the graphic below.
It shows how that could happen.
Every hurricane is different.
Every year is different in some way.
The graphic below I've shown before.
Rob will fine tune it over time.
When you understand the shear problem shown above.
As well as where warm water may be.
Steering currents.
You will better understand the graphic below.
It shows areas of the coastline in danger.
In danger as per our early forecasts.
2020 has been a year of unusual events....
...that pop up fast suddenly.
Things change.
From Covid 19 to Tornadoes in the South.
So use it as a guide early on.
East Coast would be vulnerable.
Note below CSU shows this also.
And GOM is a concern.
The Caribbean is a high concern.
Note also CSU points this out below.
So moving on to the CSU report.
Lots of detail and more academic.
But you can understand if it you go slow.
And many of you here know your lingo.
Several important point are mentioned by Phil.
An old picture of Phil with Dr. Gray.
Phil carries on Dr. Gray's legacy.
He's older now but still has very youthful looks.
You can follow him on Twitter.
@philklotzbach
Graphics from the CSU forecast that I find particularly relevant to remember.
The first graph below shows you in bright red lines how this season's potential seems to be way above average for trouble, exceeding Climatology. Basically saying higher odds on it being stronger than most average seasons based on "climo" as we often refer to it. Generally climo wins out over hype and worry when watching tropical waves forming into hurricanes, but in sometimes forecasts are heaped high with positive factors vs negative factors and we all know this 2020 how we prefer negative results to positive ones so keep that in mind. You may read the whole report linked below to understand this graphic better, but you can look at it and see that the forecast for 2020 currently exceeds the normal climo probabilities.
Please refer to the link below and look for this graphic in the report towards the end of the long report. I say long in a good way as year back when I would carefully read Dr. Gray's report I would learn much from reading and studying the details. Sometimes the forecast verified all too well and other times such as in 1997 when the "Mother of All El Ninos" came out of nowhere much like today's Covid-19 and the forecast was a bust it ended up being a very slow hurricane season. But, whether the forecast verifies or is a bust or is somewhere in between the point of reading the long, detailed report is that you learn much on the whys and hows a season is impacted by specific factors and trust me you will know more than you knew before you took the time to read it. And, thanks to Covid-19 and our new world where many of us can't go to work or the hairdresser or the Mall or the movies or meet Aunt Dolly or Sally at our favorite dining spots we have a bit more down time and can read up and research topics we love to learn more about so if you got the time... sit down with a cup of coffee or tea or whatever you enjoy and read and learn. Spoiler alert...when you click on this image or go to the report it shows that all areas are at an enhanced risk this year but especially the East Coast 92% and the Caribbean 94% much higher than the average year. Also refer to his report as sometimes he includes the Florida Peninsular in the "East Coast" statistics so be sure what he means when he uses terminology that may not jive with your vision of the Hurricane Coast.
I'm concerned that the Year of Covid-19 could evolve into The Year of Deadly Hurricanes and that is not hype and no I cannot tell you if this will be the Bertha to get the name finally retired or Dolly will or won't be a Category 5. But what I can tell you is that this year's current forecast based on current conditions portends a deadly hurricane season for someone and we may have multiple deadly Major Hurricanes as we had when Irma and Maria came close together.
I am mentioning Irma because the sort of wild rush to evacuate Florida and the search for safe shelters will be severely negatively impacted by the ongoing Covid-19 crisis. How so? Well most of us are low on funds and even those who had money put away for an emergency have less money put away for an emergency. Many people are out of work, travel is discouraged and contact with people at rest stops or buying gas are now health concerns and as for food chain lines.... as I said earlier things change fast these days. We've been told food chains would not be impacted yet currently several chicken, pork and meat producers have had to close up because people tested positive. They will open up again in theory soon but at times our "food supply chain" may be impacted so keep that in mind and hopefully it will not be a factor.
We were told to stop "hoarding food" because the food chain lines will be fine. We were also told not to go out often, so we aren't so much hoarding as buying food that will last for several weeks before we buckle up into our hazmat suits or begin putting on our masks or gloves and our now every present hoodie covering our head and venturing out in search of pasta and tuna fish and whatever produce that we hope will last more than a week or two. Perhaps you are the type that isn't wearing a mask nor wearing gloves and going shopping as you were while trying to maintain a safe distance from people ...especially those who are coughing or who look sick.... you still may have to wait in line a long time come July or August to get into a store to buy hurricane supplies way longer than you normally do when you think "this is crazy" because what if we hit a peak again in August and stores limit shoppers and you may get online for your local Publix blocks away from the actual store. I'm not saying this will happen. I am saying this could happen and you MUST figure it into your Hurricane Season Preparation this year.
So if you are at the store this week buy an extra few tins of tuna and put them in a box and do not use them. Buy an extra peanut butter and hide it away the way you would a candy bar from your hungry teenagers. Buy an extra bottle of bleach or any disinfectant supplies you can get your hands on for the Hurricane Season. And, I hate to say this but it is very possible that this virus goes on deep into 2021 as Pandemics similar to the Spanish Flu don't just disappear overnight when it's convenient for us or when the calendar year changes so if you don't use the tuna by November 30th, 2020 feel free to transfer your Hurricane Supplies to your Covid-19 supplies.
I'll continue to show different predictions for this Hurricane Season and add layers of perspective for you to think on and research yourself over the next month. I'll talk on Analog Years given by many including the years that I believe are Analog Years and show old hurricanes from those years. Thanks for letting me rant yesterday as I needed to get that off my chest and be able to move on to being serious about the Hurricane Season because to be honest we really need to take this Hurricane Season seriously because we've seen from recent tornadoes, severe weather, hail and earthquakes Mother Nature is not in quarantine or socially distancing and she has ripped people's homes that they were staying home in apart and tossed them wildly off their foundations in deadly tornadoes. That's heartbreaking but it should be a stark reminder to you that not only can't you reason with hurricane season you can't reason with Mother Nature either.
Be Safe.... BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram
Location: Miami, Raleigh, Crown Heights, Florida, United States
Weather Historian. Studied meteorology and geography at FIU. Been quoted in Wall Street Journal, Washington Post & everywhere else... Lecturer, stormchaser, writer, dancer. If it's tropical it's topical ... covering the weather & musing on life. Follow me on Twitter @ https://twitter.com/#!/BobbiStorm
