Hurricane Harbor: 2 Parts of Bertha... What a Drama... The Blob Part Looks Impressive Weather Wise. The Center NHC Tracking Blessedly Not as Much. Will See What Makes it to Texas. Hopefully Not Much.

Be aware I said online many times.

Bertha as a real storm..

...probablhy would not make it past

Cameron, Louisiana

Remnants would go W towards Texas.

NHC shows that...

..tho they keep a S by Texas Coast.

That could happen...

Center relocated to the strong convection

aka Blob

I'll be honest I have really enjoyed Bertha

Being very honest here. It's been difficult watching the ongoing discussion regarding Bertha as it's been a total disconnect with the reality of the situation. Early tropical storms in July in the Gulf are always wild cards with the possibility of intensification, but generally they unravel with their many parts. This is the way tropical storms in July behave that have competing centers or convective blobs far from the center or a tilted center and Bertha has had a clear cut center that spinned beautifully but it has been tilted in some levels of the atmosphere. This happens often, it's why so many tend to look "butt ugly" as shear shoves the convection away from the center while dry air tries to finish it off and yet in this case Bertha persevered and managed to do what she was going to do all along.

Models varied on the end game and some insisted it was going to Texas as a big storm and others early on, originally said it would pull North towards the trough and then showed it moving up through Alabama/Georgia headed towards the Carolinas bringing rain...or offshore depending on the timing of the trough. Timing of troughs in July (cold fronts) is not for beginners. Then the model shifts began racing off West towards Texas. Then showed it sliding along the coast and dipping down a bit. In truth many models were right and at the same time actually as some seem to latch onto one part of Bertha and others the other parts. And many times when the stronger center crosses the finish line the "energy" gets shifted to a competing center or strong area of convection like that football play where the ball gets passed back and forth and sometimes someone scores a touchdown and other times everyone collides and game over.

As we often explain before a winter storm in the Carolinas ...the atmosphere has many layers. I think it's Stephanie Abram who compares a possible ICE Storm to a big cheeseburger that has the bun, mayo, ketchup, a tomato, a burger, cheese, pickle, lettuce, onion and the bun. Let's go with that visual in your mind. But hopefully if you stacked your burger just right it doesn't fall apart when you bite into it. With July tropical storms there are many moving parts, nothing is static like it would be if this had intensified into a strong early season hurricane with all the parts vertically aligned.

The basic forecast verifies, it is offshore (winds finally kicked up in Pensacola Beach) and edging near Gulfport and Biloxi on it's way towards New Orleans.... off shore mostly and sliding West while it's other part the main center is balancing one part over land inland and one part out over the water still. But there is little weather associated with the official center of Bertha today, some squalls, some wind but we will see in real time what really is happening.

This is not a hurricane. Upper Level Lows that form into Tropical Storms, especially in July, often are tilted and one center becomes the ghost center and yet the strong convection that was displaced due to the wind shear and dry air is still down over very hot water and still a tropical weather threat wherever it goes.

my son was involved designing wind.art

a precursor to Earthnull

talked endlessly on how it works.

I know how it works.

Same concept

and how we use Windy.com often.

Note how much of the top part of Bertha

Is up over land.

how much is down below.

Earthnull allows us to see different layers

in the atmosphere it is awesome!

When you go to windy.com and look at the rain filter you will see rain over Texas on Thursday, off the coast after it slid to the South of most of Louisiana and when you switch to the wind filter there's no real strong center just some wind. This is typical of July with Gulf Tropical Storms. They are far from perfect, but they can be rain makers, weather producers and have their own dangers. More so as it's NOT a Cat 1 or Cat 2 it's just a rainy day at the beach and people go out and do things they would do if this was Hurricane Bertha bashing Texas beach towns and on the move inland. Unless a new center forms and takes over. There was a play made into a movie Three Faces of Eve ... we have two faces of Bertha and one looking down from the North.

Woke up this morning and saw this.

DaBuh and I see faces.

It's some odd gift we have....

...creative ppl see things others do not.

We have the blob looking kind of organized.

Headed to Texas....

(yes that's a blob currently)

Old center being tracked....

then we have this....

...to the North pulling on Bertha.

Because I do have a degree in English.

And studied drama heavily.

Into plays and musicals.

I saw this.

I know it's not a Musical Comedy....

Again not a musical comedy...

...but a great musical.

Back to Hurricane History.

Tropical Storm History here.

Michael Watkins who I have followed forever..

across many platforms

is awesome.

This post tells it all.

Saw this coming, it was evident all day yesterday this was happening as I watch the water vapor and visible imagery and know Hurricane History which includes wonky July close in Gulf Tropical Storms. I made a joke online not tagging @iCyclone but saying Josh that it was obvious that BERTHA as we knew her was NOT going to Texas would probably cough up onto Highway 90 near his Hurricane House as if Mother Nature is mocking him. Good thing this did not become a mean August or September hurricane, but I will add in some years patterns remain and close in is where it is at during El Nino so who knows what the rest of 2026 will bring.......

Zoom Earth below...

Tracking the old center of Bertha

straddling the coastline just offshore

The BIG BLOB remains below.

Forecast is West Bound and Down....

Texas in the cross hairs

But what will be?

The mystery may not be over.

I have held my thoughts for the last two days as I did not want to muddy the forecast or picture or say things that the NHC was not saying until recently and online meteorologists are trying to explain what happened (doing a good job I'll add) and we have a ghost center, a big blob and someone could end up with a whole lotta weather. NHC on it. NWS watching it.

Original models verified in some ways as some energy is moving up towards the diving front that is actually not diving but moving slower than forecast because ITS JULY and the Carolinas and parts of VA are due for flooding rains. I may or may not be here. I may be on the road. Remember I am a Gypsy after all and you just never know with me what will be or where I will be. I owe ya all for that sad, depressing Dream song but it applies if you know the lyrics it even mentions "storm" so stay tuned. I'll update later tonight most likely or first thing in the morning.

The NHC did a good job with a difficult set up and a messy, misaligned July tropical storm that was tilted on mid levels and we will see what August brings. August is not so far away down the tropical road.

Besos BobbiStorm