2020 Hurricane Season - 1 Month til June 1st. A Busy Hurricane Season Forecast with Possible Landfall Patterns. Looking Back at 1999, 2007 and 1886 & the Indianola Hurricane Matagorda Bay Texas.

Remember when?

2017....  a year few of us will forget.

Could we see a replay of such a busy season?

Yes, it's very possible.

In 1886 before satellite imagery......

... 3 storms all danced close by as they did in 2017.

We know that from the track information.

Note the month of August below.

And know September had multiple storms too.

3 Major Hurricanes in August 1886

 Storm #5 

8/15 Hispaniola

8/20 Indianola

Storm #6

8/19 Jamaica

8/21 Cuba

8/22 Nassau

Storm #7

8/20 TS forms near Bermuda

Becomes a Cat 3... 

Impacts George Bank

Vessels lost, ship damage.

Becomes a N Atlantic player.

The time frames overlap.

Landfalls overlap.

Imagine the satellite imagery today.....

Note 1886 is most famous for Storm #5

Indianola Hurricane - Matagorda Bay, Texas

Yes similar track to 1900 Hurricane... 

Similar but different.

Something to think on as its a month til Hurricane Season.

So Happy May 1st! New Month here as we zip through 2020 always wondering "what's next?" as it's been a slow, motion train wreck since the virus began spreading across the country and masks became all the rage to show off your favorite team, hobby or level of hypochondria. Okay, seriously I've tried to go slow with news of a forecast busy hurricane season that many experts have predicted could include multiple landfalls along the US coast as highly possible. I don't like pulling the mask off the old Lone Ranger nor do I like pouring oil onto a fire or screaming "FIRE!" in a crowded theater but the time has come to get serious about the Atlantic Hurricane Season that begins one month from now officially, but can begin earlier in reality should something in the Gulf of Mexico or off the East Coast spin up impressively enough for the NHC to give it a name and begin issuing advisories.

Let's look at 3 possibly analog hurricane seasons that began early and ended way too late for most of us. Remember every hurricane season is unique, however many have commonalities from positive conditions that deliver a busy season to the similar tracks taken due to obviously similar atmospheric and oceanic conditions. They are other years I'm concerned on but going with these three today as they all were busy seasons when the water was warm, the wind shear was low (allowing for vigorous waves to develop into Major Hurricanes) and had similar tracks as predicted as possible by many concerned on this hurricane season.

Let's work backwards and begin with the 2017 Hurricane Season as it began extremely early on April 19th with a very early season system and multiple warnings in the media by experts that an early hurricane season doesn't mean it will be a busy hurricane season. That is true as often a May storm forms and then we wait until late August for the next storm to form but it's not rule that isn't always broken but a much repeated statement when a system pops up before the local networks have even begun airing Hurricane Preparations stories.

2017 was an odd year in that weather was in the news often and everyone watched in real time as New Orleans itself had a tornado in February. In June Tropical Storm Cindy made landfall near that part of the Gulf of Mexico to be followed by Harvey that made landfall to the West of there but slid back into the GOM and made a second landfall. Finally Nate made landfall on that general part of the GOM coastline making people in Nola and much of Florida and Houston and elsewhere wish the 2017 Hurricane Season would be one for the history books.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2017_Atlantic_hurricane_season

Next we have 1999 another busy hurricane season with tracks similar to the predicted areas of concern for 2020. Again we see long trackers and hurricanes aimed at the US coast as well as some Caribbean and Cuban activity. The first storm formed on June 11th and ended on November 23rd leaving many of us happy to see it go. With 8 hurricanes and 5 major hurricanes it was one for the record books. Also warm water, light shear and all the typical positive factors that bring Hurricanes to our door along the Hurricane Coast. As a trivia point it's worth noting Louisiana and Texas had tornadoes on Easter Sunday in April of 1999. Obviously I'm watching for years with similar severe weather prior to the Hurricane Season that coincide with other factors forecast for the 2020 Hurricane Season.

https://www.weather.gov/shv/event_1999-04-03_tornadoes

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1999_Atlantic_hurricane_season

1886 

Now I want to go back into history ... far distant history to 1886 when the Atlantic saw a very busy hurricane season that when no less than 7 storms made landfall. The season began on June 13th and ended on October 26th, but it is worth noting the numbers are very similar to what is forecast for this coming year ... especially when you add in the 1886 Hurricane Season didn't have satellite imagery available so one can only imagine the additional storms that may have existed further from the coastlines nor not mentioned in ship reports; in those days if the ship went down with the storm there wasn't always a record of it being hit by a tropical system.

Note that all 3 of these seasons...

...look similar when glancing at the maps.

Each is different but many commonalities.

I cannot say enough about how horrendous the loss of life was from the 1886 Hurricane Season during a time when communities with busy, Boom Towns woke up totally unprepared for what the next day or two would deliver to their doorstep. In a time before Hurricane forecasting all they knew was the barometer was dropping and weather was moving in but rather than a typical afternoon thunderstorm a deadly hurricane packing winds of 150 mph washed away some communities such as Indianola Texas and many bodies were never found in small bayou towns along the coast so the death toll could be much higher. In those days when some single young man managed to survive such a catastrophe he got out of town fast whatever way he could and he didn't document his trip on Instagram... he simply left for greener pastures .... often ones where he decided a snow storm was better than whatever it was that just wiped his home off the map. 

In 2020 we complain about how bad a long term forecast is because it was predicated that it was possible that the African Wave would develop into a hurricane and impact Georgia and it made landfall in South Carolina; oh my goodness the critics on Twitter and in WhatsApp groups go crazy. A storm tries to form down near the Yucatan and everyone debates if it will live or die off and doubts it can possibly become a strong hurricane than slams into the Florida Panhandle as a Category 5 Hurricane. 

I'm not saying 2020 will look exactly as the above mentioned hurricane seasons did but I can tell you that according to the forecast conditions and track patterns expected it could end up looking very similar. What I can tell you is that unlike the citizens of Indianola in 1886 you will be given much warning way before it makes landfall, but before waiting for a Hurricane Warning to be posted you better be ready early this year. Unless something miraculous occurs, Covid-19 is expected to be a factor in our lives throughout this coming hurricane season especially early in the season. Supply chain factors have already become a problem for certain products such as the ever important paper products and protein from pork to chicken to beef being at some times hit hard. Note if you have a lake, river or any place to fish near you ... you may want to learn to take up fishing and if you are a vegetarian ... good luck with Tofu. If there's no tofu stock up on dried beans and pasta if you can find them... Oh, yeast is apparently worth more than toilet paper currently across the nation.

Recent quick trip to the Grocery Store.

We went during a rain storm yesterday.

 A food Lion in Raleigh.

Extremely clean.

Aisles marked carefully for 1 Way travel.

Employees had masks and gloves on...

...so did the customers.

Publix moved into North Carolina.

Many transplanted Floridians live here.

As much as I love Publix... not as clean.

At the registers they wore  masks... no gloves.

My husband ran in for some Kosher chicken..

... grabbed it, got out...got pictures for me.

They are limiting popular non-perishables.

Yeah that happened.

We are stocked... not going out for a while.

Well, for walks and exercise maybe.

But not shopping any time soon.

Amazon has been working well otherwise.

So I am begging you.......

....prepare EARLY for the Hurricane Season.

Every trip to the store by one extra thing.

Because I can't imagine how people will shop...

... if they have to wait hours to get into the storm.

With proper social distancing....

...and many items already gone.

It won't be pretty.

Prepare early........

... you can use non-perishables anytime.

That's why they are popular.

If you have a Panera type store near you.

Buy bread early, freeze it if you have space.

Yeast is gone and the bread aisles aren't full.

Okay, lot's of Dave's Killer Bread.

I buy it, use it sparingly.

Lasts, great bread but expensive.

The cheap white bread is gone, gone, gone...

One last note on 1886......

...a picture after the Fire of 1886 in Key West.

While they were spared hurricanes....

...they were in rebuilding mode from the fire.

A personal footnote to this discussion on 1886 is that it's the year my family moved to Key West. The timing was most likely dictated to by the 1886 fire that destroyed a good part of the town as people needed products and they were already there because of the Cigar Industry. A great, great grandfather was in the Tinware Business originally from England and as after the fire Key West insisted buildings have metal rooftops and that's how we ended up with tin roofs for the cat to walk on and how he established his tinware and crockery business while his sons traveled to Cuba often buying tobacco and involved in the cigar business.

So those are my thoughts. There are models showing a "low" forming off the East Coast and other long range models are trying to close off a low pressure system in the North Gulf of Mexico and down in the Caribbean there has been an on and off spin going on that isn't that uncommon in busy years to see. The Epac is forecast to come alive again soon with what should be a named storm.

Have you started making a list yet? 

Please do so... a list for food, supplies and to figure out where you would go and shelter if you need to evacuate in the Year of Covid-19.

Good luck. 

Prayers to everyone to stay safe, well and sane this weekend.

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram.

Ps... check this video out, it's short and informative... packing of beef in tin cans began here apparently so next time you buy Spam for a hurricane... remember Indianola!

Updated! 2 AM Orange Circle up to 60% for GOM Trouble. September TS Florence - Caribbean Area Up to 50% - EURO Sticks by her Man w Landfall Near Louisiana. Florence Hugs the South Side of the NHC Forecast Cone.

60% odds in the 5 day.

You can see the early semblance of it trying to...

...pull itself together.

There's more there going on than yesterday.

Unfortunately can't say the same for Florence.

Looks weaker tonight.

Convection waning.

Dry air to her NW hampering her.

We'd like her to intensify.

Ups the odds of her staying lower...

...and getting further to the West.

Note convection in the wave behind Flo.

Over time that dry air is being drawn down.

Towards Flo... 

Image on the top the beginning of the loop.

Picture at the bottom.. end of loop.

*  *  *

She's not exactly a ridge buster currently.

We will see down the road how it goes.

I think she looked better earlier as seen below.

Tropical Storm Florence.

I like the night time image of her.

You can see better down into her core.

Structure.

Compact inside a larger envelope of moisture.

What might be Gordon off the N coast of Cuba.

If Gordon doesn't form in the Atlantic ...

...and this just becomes a TD.

Seems only the EURO knows for sure.

Euro model consistent in it's support

And the cone for Florence.

Understand where Florence is on Thursday is important.

Is it down near 20 N (current bottom of the cone)

Or up near 26 N (current top of the cone)

You can extrapolate movement from that point.

We won't know for a while.

As I said on Friday....

...they keep inching the cone to the left..

Or actually more to the South.

More westward movement ....

It's a complicated set up in that when the wind shear is low the water is not that warm. Where the water is warmer the wind shear is higher. This is not forecast to be a Hurricane. I'm pretty sure she'd rather be a hurricane and if she was a hurricane than busting into the High Pressure Ridge would be more believable. Alas Florence remains a runner up, a nice looking tropical storm so far.

Brief Saturday evening update on Tropical Storm Florence and the wave in the Caribbean with a 50% chance of developing and moving up into the Gulf of Mexico making landfall around Louisiana as a weak, wet system that moves West into Texas moving very slowly and dumping much rain. There are also a group of possible storms developing later in the forecast period as strong, viable waves move off of Africa into a friendlier environment than the earlier waves found. I'll do a long update Sunday morning. Just marking time. For those who celebrate the Jewish Sabbath as I do it's worth noting Saturday Night is some extra day in the calendar, very awake and refreshed in ways and ready to start the day again but it's late at night in the summertime. Raleigh is not Miami where restaurants stay open late, kosher ones, and there's a plethora to do so I'm looping loops of Florence and wondering on what the next few days may bring.

Here's Florence cruising along above.

Give it a few days and you get here...

This coming Wednesday IF the EURO is correct.

Florence below the high.

A small closed low by Louisiana

Below is Florence as a stronger system.

You can see a weakness in the high develops.

Florence on Saturday reaches the edge of the high.

Note the high is fluid between now and then...

...much can happen.

This is only a model.

Note the waves behind Florence....

The question remains how strong is the high at that point.

Does it snap back into place.

Does it open up a wider path for Florence to take.

The difference is Flo being an out to sea storm.

Or a possible problem along the East Coat.

Maybe just a surf maker ... 

Now if Flo was a hurricane....

...I'd be a bigger believer in a Fish Storm.

Flo might have some tricks up it's sleeve.

Note also following the EURO here.

Whatever hits Louisiana....

... lingers around the Texas coastline.

A real rainmaker is possible

That's a lot of rain.

Even as a wet Tropical Depression.

A lot of rain.

Long range models above

All signs point to a busy time in the tropics.

Hello September.

I'll update Sunday Morning.

September 1st, 2018

Hurricane Season comes to life...

... as per Climo.

A "normal" year in ways.

Besos Bobbistorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter

(did you really think I was going to do EWF

Times have changed.....)

Watching Caribbean. Buying Cheesecake. Rainy Weekend. Long Term Models Show Tropical Problems for Memorial Day Weekend. Take Them With Mucho Grains of Salt Until Something Forms. But Something to Think On...

The loop above shows today and the near future.

It's a reliable forecast.

What is and what will be.

Everything else is conjecture.

Speaking of conjecture and his cousin innuendo there is much discussion about possible development in the tropics Memorial Day Weekend. We are getting closer to the point where we can say "expected" development as Memorial Day Weekend gets closer to the 7 day time frame for forecasting. The flow of moisture coming out of the Caribbean zooming up into the Eastern half of the continental United States will continue unabated for a few days. 

Memorial Day Weekend is the official start of Summer for many, at least in the fashion world, where people change over their wardrobes and feel they are allowed to turn on the AC. I never get that AC thing as in my world black sandals work anytime and if it's hot I turn on the AC or as we used to say growing up in Miami the "life support system" cause you really can't live easily in Florida all year round without AC. But this Spring after an unusually long winter we skipped Spring and dove right into Summer. Meteorological Summer for those with no patience to wait for the Summer Solstice begins June 1st in tandem with the Atlantic Hurricane Season. And, right on time we have a system in the Caribbean that may develop just on time for networks to hype up the season and kick people in the ass to get out there and go shopping for much needed hurricane supplies. Mind you I'm talking about people not in Florida or the general Houston area who know the drill really well this particular year. If you live in the the rest of the Gulf of Mexico or the Mid Atlantic you may want to dust off those To Do Lists and Shopping Lists. 

Use this list: http://www.publix.com/pages/publix-storm-basics

In the South Florida area there was much publicized flooding from locally heavy rains as the Monsoon Season kicked into gear. Understand places like Davie and Parkland were built far out into what was for most of Planet Earth's time history the EVERGLADES aka Swamp Land. And the better communities are built up a bit and have drainage ditches and drains that make the situation better. Poorer areas where the trailer parks are situated often do not have such luxuries. Note even with the luxuries when it rains that hard (it's called MONSOON for a reason) it floods briefly. I am concerned if something does develop in the Caribbean and moves up over Florida over an area that has been dealing with localized flooding for days we could see a much larger flooding problem even with a weak tropical system. Further up the coast areas in the Appalachia or the soggy Southeast they could also have long term flooding concerns if the current models continue showing a tropical system coming up out of the Caribbean making landfall and moving inland. May storms out of the Caribbean are often weak, however they are filled with tons of tropical moisture. Cold fronts this time of year show up but sometimes they don't grab the storm and slide it out to sea so fast. It could be a tricky set up.

That's not a dress rehearsal though it is a pretty dress she's wearing. TWC is dusting off their Tropical Update early while discussing all that moisture down in the Caribbean. So where do we stand today regarding the tropics. The moist tropical flow is zooming North bringing rain. The Atlantic is still too cold. Nice waves coming off of Africa early and too low, tho some of them make it across and add moisture to areas of moisture already in the Caribbean. 

You can watch the flow below.

I just don't want to talk models currently as the models are long range and they vary, however they are coming together showing something trying to develop as moisture wraps together and moves towards South Florida, up over Cuba somewhere near the Yucatan and where it goes no body knows for sure. We also don't know what it's strength will be if it develops it's Northbound with some variation to the left or right in it's track. But although it may be raining this weekend in South Florida I'd enjoy the rain, do your thing and have fun because next weekend could be a real rain out if you were planning a BBQ at the beach. As Mike says you can swim in the pool in the rain anytime, so backyard parties are good as long as you are cranking up the AC inside and have a covered patio to lay out the food and beer.

As I said yesterday when all the models are screaming "SHARK!" you can figure there is some sort of big fish in the water. Time will tell how big, how strong and if it gets the name Alberto or not.

Here are some relevant Tweets posted online as they leave you with something to think about. If you follow Dabuh over time on Twitter or at his website you learn the method in his musical madness. Works for me.

https://dabuh.com

As for me I'll be offline this weekend for a long but fun Jewish Holiday known as Shavous or as my friends like to tease me "oh that's your holiday where you eat cheesecake!" and that's true too. Lots of new fruits, desserts and a heavy emphasis on dairy and cheese dishes mixed in with your regular chicken and meat dishes at different meals. We also will be surviving Ice Cream over Cherry Pie and my daughter is bringing chocolate and cinnamon cake that is like a long, danish cake basically. I keep it simple with Greek Salad, Blitzes, Turkey, Chicken and Rice, Lox and Bagels for various meals. I may be making Fake Bacon (beef, it's good) Gourmet Burgers and fancy potato salad for a meal. Time will tell much like the modeling for the big Memorial Day Tropical ??? as things evolve in real time. I go shopping, I buy the ingredients, some show up from far away and then we'll see what mood I'm in Sunday Morning to see what I actually make or bake! 

https://www.joyofkosher.com/recipes/double-chocolate-kokosh-cake/

https://www.chabad.org/library/article_cdo/aid/32627/jewish/Shavuot-Recipes.htm

So until I'm back on Monday please refer to Mike's www.spaghettimodels.com for all your tropical needs and be aware if you like NASCAR he's there too so he's really got you covered. Again I'll be back online blogging sometime late Monday well rested and ready to rock and roll with the punches for whatever may develop down in the tropics. http://www.spaghettimodels.com/raceday 

Also much of what may or may not develop down in the Caribbean will depend on what happens with regard to the shear. If the shear lessens as it is forecast to do so then something begins to wrap up into a designated system more than just models fantasizing as they often do this time of year. There are great shear maps on Spaghetti Models so make sure you move around throughout the site to fully actualize all the information he put there for you to utilize! 

The models are up at the top on the left. 

Take them with a lot of salt.

Like margaritas ;)

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter

Ps. Should I make a Margarita Cheesecake? Hmnn. Again I'll be back at my particular harbor sometime late on Monday and until then keep listening to the music and watching the tropics. There's a Key Lime Cheesecake there. Works for me.

https://www.edwardsdesserts.com/products/whole-pies/

Tropics Wednesday. 90E Up to 70% Red Ready for Designation Status Epac. Watching the Atlantic. Hurricane History Flora 1963

Quick update this morning on Invest 90E in the EPAC that is currently a red area with a 70% chance of development and designation. As I said yesterday it has a small doorway of opportunity being that far West before it hits cooler water to develop into at least a Tropical Depression. Why you may ask do we care about the Eastern Pacific when we are mostly obsessed with the Tropical Atlantic? Because it is all related, connected and it's a process watching the tropics in our part of the world become active. Every year is different, yet all have similarities and this is the time of year we watch in real time as the process plays out.

To start out I will point out that the NRL has a track map of sorts now up and that is usually a foreshadowing sign of an upgrade to designation status in the near future. It's a step up in the process of watching the area of troubled, tropical weather and where it may go as it relates to the NRL site's priorities. For newbies the NRL the N in NRL should remind you of everything Naval, Navy and ships at sea.

Discussion from the NHC below.

As far as the Atlantic goes things are moving along as they do in May as patterns shift and water temperatures warm up. Tropical Waves leave Africa and head West at a very low latitude but they are fun to watch. The frontal boundary is still draped off the coast of Florida based in the Bahamas and a tropical wave will mix it up with the start of the May Monsoons in the Miami area over the weekend. If you are planning a Mother's Day Brunch out or Buffet or Breakfast at a place on the water know you may have to deal with rain at some point over the weekend. It's May in the Miami and adjacent South Florida area. 

If you have forgotten what that is like (and if you have lived there ever you probably haven't) it looks a lot like this in May in Miami Dade and the Broward County area.

May in Miami serves as a reminder...

...that Hurricane Season begins in June.

A bit of Hurricane History below regarding Hurricane Flora in 1963. A hurricane that followed a similar but different lower path to Maria and Irma from last year but a hurricane that turned away before slamming into Florida; Haiti and Cuba did not fair as well and it's a classic Category 4 October Hurricane in the Atlantic Basin. In retrospect I was a little disappointed girl that did not get to see Flora up close but in fact I got lucky. We all got lucky and we hope this year luck is on our side with regard to Alberto, Beryl, Chris, Debby and all those that will form in the Atlantic Basin.

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter

Ps I'll update if anything big changes later today. As always I'd rather worry on hurricanes than earthquakes and volcanoes!

Rina... Will Sean Form in November? What Are the Chances? Will Tropical Trouble Slip in Between Cold Fronts?

Rina is moving steadily out to sea.

A cold front is trying to move through the Carolinas.

There are mixed signals to be honest.

The front moves South.

There are mixed signals.

Saying that again...

Tropical possibilities.

Mike is watching this...

...so am I.

Hmmnnn look at that area in the Caribbean.

Below is the freeze and frost line.

Creeping down...

Here's an image of the front.

Dipping down into the GOM.

An area in the Caribbean below that.

Can November Hurricanes happen?

Yes, of course they can.

But they are rare and far between.

Rarely seen making landfall.

Major Hurricane Kate in 1985 in the GOM.

That's Florida to her right.

Hurricanes in November do strange things.

You can read the report from the NHC for yourself. I'm curious as I'll be in Florida that week or I suppose next week and so I'll be watching anything that might develop very carefully. In a year such as this one we all should watch carefully, even if the signs of winter are evident in a good part of the South today. The problem is it the arrival of cold fronts on an regular basis through Northern Florida that make watching the Caribbean and the Gulf of Mexico important as... as.......as always it's all about timing.

Visible above is a frontal boundary.

And moisture in the Caribbean.

This time of year we have a clash of the seasons. Cold weather up north trying to work it's way down south. Fronts manage to temporarily make their way down through the Carolinas and then they stall out and sometimes back up as a cold front. If there is a reinforcing front then the cooler weather lingers. It's all about where a frontal boundary dips and when a system could form in tropical waters as to where it could move towards the dipping front. It happens rarely. Usually winter takes over and the tropical weather is but a memory and the season is one for the record books. This Hurricane Season of 2017 is indeed one for the record books.  For the record I put the space heater on for a bit in the bedroom this morning. I'm not ready to put on the real heater so I just pretend I have the air conditioning on really low down. Denial... it's a name for the space of time between November and December when leaves begin falling littering the ground with colorful patterns of nature's own confetti.

Keep watching.

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter