Hurricane Harbor: Update 11 PM... PTC One Forecast By NHC to Be TS Arthur ... Cone...Discussion and Thoughts on Track & Deadly Dangers ... Flooding & Tornado Dangers High. It's Been Raining along the Coast there for Day Ups the Ante for Serious Flooding.

PTC One is forecast to ride the coastline.

Sort of paralleling it....

...any variation in degrees can mean a lot.

When storms parralel the coastline just offshore it makes it harder to make an exact forecast. The basics are there in place, but degrees matter. The devil really IS in the details. When a storm does this off the SW Coast of Florida you can get a Charley sort of scenario when it suddenly hooks in and makes Landfall. This is NOT Charley. It's just an expample and happens in Florida and the Carolinas and sometimes Texas. Weak steering currents or a weak center and often shear there. Early in the Season and late in the Season.

There are the hardest types of storms to forecast in ways and yet some ways the easiest. The best of times and the worst of times. But until it really forms we don't know for sure we are merely making educated guesses based on modeling and satellite imagery and tomorrow there will be Recon. And the NHC is very good at this... I might even say damn good at this. But again a storm riding the coastline... is not easy to nail down exactly. The NHC still has it at TS status but they pushed back the forecast a bit.

There's Earthnull....

...there's what might be the center.

Still has ways to go...

There's a scenario for a fast movement and one for a slow movement. I'm just going to watch tonight as I did today and probably tomorrow. Okay, definitely tomorrow. I was going to update this afternoon, but there was really nothing new to say. It's a watch and wait set up. It's tedious and it's compelling. Local governments in the path have time to get plans into action ... in case....worse case scenario happens.

Signing off now............. will see what we see in the morning.

It's all about perspective. If you are nowhere near this storm you are totally not interested. If you are a student of tropical meteorology, a researcher, tracker or storm chaser you are interested. There's lowering pressures at the surface, and yes they are still high but they are way lower than other areas.

This is basically a "tropical disturbance" currently... if pressures keep falling, if it gets out over the water, if the models verify that they are using we will have something more cohesive tomorrow.

Will see tomorrow. We are currently at Red Alert level. That's a personal joke for me, someone gets it. Makes me laugh. It's good to laugh. Eventually it should move over water. Only time will tell.

Sweetest Tropical Dreams.

If you didn't read, please keep reading.

My F key has a problem.

It's erratic. Off and on.

I may have to put this laptop down...

... or fix it or get a new one.

Time will tell :)

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Details above.

PTC One

Official Cone.

Going to preface all this with the reminder that this could become a Tropical Depression or even become TS Arthur, though mostly we are still in the realm of potential vs actuality. Either way, the impacts will be the same and those being torrential rain leading to dangerous flooding issues in some places, high winds and the danger of severe weather. When we say dangerous I mean they could turn deadly. Hopefully not, but the area geographically it is traversing are filled with bayous, swamps and dangers not apparent to newbies or tourists. It's hard to explain how in this neck of the world flooding can happen fast and put someone who is unaware of that into life threatening dangers. Even for locals, dangers occur and accidents happen. I'd say this is definitely "tropical" in that it's origin is one part remnants of Cristina from the EPAC along with other ingredients and it is in the tropics and it is behaving in a tropical way bu it has not developed a real, solid center. Should and when this occurs it will be TD1 or TS Arthur. Note that the advisory discussion below shows it attaining tropical storm starus in 24 hours. This is the perfect example of why we have the Potential Cyclone category as storms often form close in along the coastline here and can intensify fast and the normal time parameters do not apply here vs a long tracking tropical wave with potential far out in the distant Atlantic.