Lots of Talk. Not Much Action. But........Possibilities Exist Still. So Keep Watching BUT Have an Awesome Weekend!!

 

Only going to talk on the main Red area.

Tho the orange one could be sleeping.

Complicated, crowded set up.

Amanda out doing it's thing.

45 MPH wandering the Pacific*

Actually Amanda looks stronger.

As or the EPAC crossover to the Atlantic...

Visible loop shows this is mostly....

...potential energy.

There really is not much there to get excited about.

But if it festers, something could form.

Where and when is the big question.

This is really my problem here....

...2 competing systems.

Close together.

Usually one wins out over the other.

Or one plays possum and waits for it to leave.

Then the second one makes it's move.

Looking at Windy.com

Lots of moisture.

EPAC tries hard to spin.

Westbound tropical waves....

...meeting up with moisture from below.

Moisture oozing into Central America..

.. Mexico.

No joke flooding rains could happen there.

And I mean without a named system!

As for models.

Only model I will show is EURO today.

GFS keeps trying but EURO long range...

...EURO tries to be the GFS.

June 17th!

How far out can we go now?

My thoughts are that IF something forms it may be further down the line than yesterday's models were suggesting. Watching Google AI and other AI and all the ensembles of scattered possible storms sprayed across the map, but still nothing I can believe it or I'd invest in or I'd write home about and tell everyone back in Miami "OMG" cause I just can't today.

I'm wondering if Amanda very briefly gets stronger than her forecast expected and then peters out as soon as it hits colder waters.

I'll tell you what is not cold. At my house in NC it's 92 degrees and "feels like 103" and I am not amused. I do not like this sort of heat. It's heavy and oppressive and totally obnoxious! We could use some rain. Supposedly by next Thursday we have several days of chances of rain. We will see. 

The 7 Day shows rain. 

Rain in the Carolinas.

More rain down in the Carib.

Near Cuba... the Yucatan.

Moving up into Florida.

As much as I'd love to believe that's a stalled out frontal boundary, it's more likely something else. But is it just rain, tropical rain from a big sprawling system trying to find it's MOJO and can't find it anywhere. Or something trying to develop?

Don't know. But we are all watching.

Have a good weekend.

I can't say something will form, but I also can't say something will not form.

*You'd think they could stick probes or dropsondes in Amanda out there to get better measurements of El Nino! I am being silly. I am allowed. Don't judge me. 

What I find interesting is there have been huge eruptions in Hawaii of the Kilauea volcano. Hot, red, explosive eruptions high into the sky. I know geologist friends who actually watch this all day live the way we watch the areas in the EPAC and the Gulf that aren't doing anywhere near as much as Kilauea. 

And down below...

...El Nino is bubbling, growing.

Possibly exploding with all that oceanic heat!

Up above........

........and down below.

Over by Africa.....

...things are juicing up.

Strong waves but long waves.

Hmnn

Westbound waves.

Battling SAL

If a wave gets into the Yucatan area..

..and if the Gyre is still there.

And a bit of spin 

Something could form.

Lots of IFs

In a mood.

Tired and it's only June.

I'm not a Summer person.

I want Fall.

Peak of Season.

Football Season!

Feels Like 100s eww

Will figure it out.

We all will....

..that's a lot of heat in the Pacific.

Sweet Tropical Dreams,

BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on X