NHC Says Tropics Are Quiet Both in Atlantic & EPAC. Sometimes Though... Things Do Pop Up So... Never Say Never. Shavous Vacation Til Monday Evening. Eat Ice Cream or Cheesecake ;)

This graphic good as of late Friday.

Official image showing nothing happening.

NHC says for 5 days.

Let's see how that verifies in 5 days :)

But seriously not expecting anything to develop.

June is usually too soon....

...but often things pop up suddenly*

Let's look at the loop below.

Note the flow.

West to East 

Up above and down below.

Frontal boundaries are draped across the US.

Frontal boundaries over the South are stalled out.

In the Caribbean the typical Easterly Shear Zone reigns

Always watch old fronts especially off the East Coast...

....or in the Gulf of Mexico.

They are like dangling participles.

Hard to lose totally.

Sometimes they spin up fast.

A wider look shows us a few things.

How wide did you think I was gonna go...

Fronts up above....

Fronts down below.

Different types of fronts.

And an Inter Tropical Convergence Zone in between.

Note that white line that runs across the middle ...

The ITCZ as it used to be called.

It still is but often other names are used.

It's where our waves roll across and off of Africa.

It's where moisture off South America forms it's own in the EPAC.

Later in the season as this becomes more solid....

...we worry on the real storms... 

Hurricanes.

Not Invests.

Not Depressions.

Not Subtropical Storms.

Not even Tropical Storms.

As the waters warm we worry on hurricanes.

Cape Verde Hurricanes.

Africa up close.

It's worth noting everything has a season.

Indian Ocean is wet...

Tropical Waves are identifiable over Africa.

And each wave gets a bit higher in latitude.

This is a process as old as time.

That's why we have a rhyme.

June too soon.

July too stand by.

August you must.......

September Remember.

It's a cute rhyme we all learn growing up in Florida.

It really applies to Cape Verde Hurricanes.

Remember that asterisk?

* Much like old age things seem to pop up out of nowhere in June. My brother in Greece who is an author and musician uses that phrase when dealing with age related aches and pains. We suddenly remember all too well when our father gave up playing softball and Jai Alai and tennis and or anything that involved using his shoulder too much or too hard. He loved sports, but at some age he became more a spectator unless he was attempting to do catch with my brothers. Spoiler Alert: He was better at Jai Alai and tennis than he was catch...   My brother is getting to that age where things pop up and shift around in his body. It doesn't help that he fell out of a huge Tarzan like Ficus tree in Middle School breaking both his legs and an arm; maybe it was two arms and a leg but pretty sure it was both legs. I was living in California getting a play by play from my traumatized mother. Any time we got hurt or in trouble she was traumatized. It was truly traumatizing to realize you were the one that made her traumatized . . . 

The tropics in June when it's officially too soon are like old age... things pop up. Or maybe like a toddler you allow to play with your new CD and he throws it across the room and it breaks into a million pieces. Okay that didn't happen. We didn't have CDs then and we both think my mother broke it as she didn't like the song. Ouch...this has become a real mean fest over my mother. I loved my mother, I miss my mother... she passed on a few years ago and we remember her fondly with jokes. My father told jokes better than he played catch. I digress....  The point is just like ANDREA popped up suddenly out of nowhere.... so can some system at the tail end of a front and in the Gulf of Mexico from the remnants of the remnants of Invest 91L or who knows. Things pop up sometimes and things happen fast and form in the 4th day after the NHC says nothing will form over the next 5 days. I have digressed enough, back to weather ....

Below is the weather in motion.

For anyone who is new here....

Green means rain.

Dark green means heavy rain.

Red blobs are never good...

White means you have "fair" weather.

I've never been sure what "fair" weather means.

I suppose it's politically correct.

Good weather to me is a storm.

Good weather to you means you can sunbathe...

Flooding as I said earlier a few months back...

....will still be the big problem this Spring.

Going into this Summer as the rains continue.

Dabuh is watching waves.

I'm watching waves with him.

Mike is out on a big boat riding through the waves.

There is nothing currently brewing.

I'll be off until Monday evening.

It's Shavous a Jewish holiday my mother loved.

My father loved them all.

My mother loved blintzes and cheesecake.

Shavous is a Spring holiday.

You can read up about it if you wish.

Spring in the sense that it is Spring and...

...Spring fruits abound everywhere.

The tropics are dead but .....

.....there are berries galore in the store.

Making Blintzes Souffle.

Mac and Cheese.

Pimento Cheese.

Fruit Salads.

Lox and Cream Cheese on Onion Rolls.

Dips from Brooklyn bought in Baltimore.

The meat meals include Shake and Bake Chicken.

Sweet and Sour Meat Balls.

Chicken Soup my daughter is making as I type this...

... making French Onion Soup on Sunday.

Different meals for different days.

But those are the usual suspects.

Oh and cheese cake........

Lots of different toppings... 

Chocolate Cheesecake. Strawberry Cheesecake.

Okay I bought the one with different slices ;)

Trying to rest and keep it simple here.

I know it doesn't sound simple.

It is... compared to things I did in previous years.

https://www.busyinbrooklyn.com/tag/shavuot/

A good link to see what some people make.

Good recipes.

Oh did I mention there's an Ice Cream Bar at the Temple?

www.chabad.org

Feel free to Google it or find a Chabad House near you.

The Ice Cream Party is on Sunday after services.

So that's it.

Please refer to my usual friends online ....

www.spaghettimodels.com

www.hurricanecity.com

www.crownweather.com

https://dabuh.com/

http://www.stormhamster.com/entry2/e060719.htm

There's a few other people but sadly....

...someone's not talking to me.

Maybe I got too silly.

(I'm really sorry)

Or maybe I wasn't sorry enough :(

Anyways...........

I'll be back Monday evening.

Have a good weekend.

If you are at the beach use sunscreen!

If you are doing Shavous....

.... may I suggest Tagamet if dairy doesn't agree with you?

In truth if my oldest daughter wasn't here I'd probably barely cook.

I mean it's dairy? Does anyone really need blintzes?

I can live on yogurt, fruit and ice cream.

And a last note here.

It's not just me that has noticed the lack of storms in the EPAC.

Invest 91L disliked the Pacific so much it swam back into the Atlantic.

It crawled over mountains and jumped into the Gulf of Mexico.

It might still be there rouge like waiting to show up again?

The Epac has been quiet.

So much talk on it still being El Nino.

As far as I'm concerned we are on our way to Neutral.

Neutral as in kind of Normal .. Old School Hurricane Season.

Maybe even checking out La Nina soon ...

But it takes them so long to declare an El Nino....

...they have to wait a while to say it's leaving.

I know.. maybe Modoki

Yeah...whatever.

EPAC is quiet.

Check out Dabuh... 

He's good.

Plays well with others too!

Makes me laugh, smile and dance.

See y'all Monday Night.

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram.

Ps... as for my brother the writer who knows things "pop up"

Check out his latest book!

https://www.amazon.com/dp/1980911312

https://www.amazon.com/dp/1980911312

https://loiteringwords.com/

Watching Caribbean. Buying Cheesecake. Rainy Weekend. Long Term Models Show Tropical Problems for Memorial Day Weekend. Take Them With Mucho Grains of Salt Until Something Forms. But Something to Think On...

The loop above shows today and the near future.

It's a reliable forecast.

What is and what will be.

Everything else is conjecture.

Speaking of conjecture and his cousin innuendo there is much discussion about possible development in the tropics Memorial Day Weekend. We are getting closer to the point where we can say "expected" development as Memorial Day Weekend gets closer to the 7 day time frame for forecasting. The flow of moisture coming out of the Caribbean zooming up into the Eastern half of the continental United States will continue unabated for a few days. 

Memorial Day Weekend is the official start of Summer for many, at least in the fashion world, where people change over their wardrobes and feel they are allowed to turn on the AC. I never get that AC thing as in my world black sandals work anytime and if it's hot I turn on the AC or as we used to say growing up in Miami the "life support system" cause you really can't live easily in Florida all year round without AC. But this Spring after an unusually long winter we skipped Spring and dove right into Summer. Meteorological Summer for those with no patience to wait for the Summer Solstice begins June 1st in tandem with the Atlantic Hurricane Season. And, right on time we have a system in the Caribbean that may develop just on time for networks to hype up the season and kick people in the ass to get out there and go shopping for much needed hurricane supplies. Mind you I'm talking about people not in Florida or the general Houston area who know the drill really well this particular year. If you live in the the rest of the Gulf of Mexico or the Mid Atlantic you may want to dust off those To Do Lists and Shopping Lists. 

Use this list: http://www.publix.com/pages/publix-storm-basics

In the South Florida area there was much publicized flooding from locally heavy rains as the Monsoon Season kicked into gear. Understand places like Davie and Parkland were built far out into what was for most of Planet Earth's time history the EVERGLADES aka Swamp Land. And the better communities are built up a bit and have drainage ditches and drains that make the situation better. Poorer areas where the trailer parks are situated often do not have such luxuries. Note even with the luxuries when it rains that hard (it's called MONSOON for a reason) it floods briefly. I am concerned if something does develop in the Caribbean and moves up over Florida over an area that has been dealing with localized flooding for days we could see a much larger flooding problem even with a weak tropical system. Further up the coast areas in the Appalachia or the soggy Southeast they could also have long term flooding concerns if the current models continue showing a tropical system coming up out of the Caribbean making landfall and moving inland. May storms out of the Caribbean are often weak, however they are filled with tons of tropical moisture. Cold fronts this time of year show up but sometimes they don't grab the storm and slide it out to sea so fast. It could be a tricky set up.

That's not a dress rehearsal though it is a pretty dress she's wearing. TWC is dusting off their Tropical Update early while discussing all that moisture down in the Caribbean. So where do we stand today regarding the tropics. The moist tropical flow is zooming North bringing rain. The Atlantic is still too cold. Nice waves coming off of Africa early and too low, tho some of them make it across and add moisture to areas of moisture already in the Caribbean. 

You can watch the flow below.

I just don't want to talk models currently as the models are long range and they vary, however they are coming together showing something trying to develop as moisture wraps together and moves towards South Florida, up over Cuba somewhere near the Yucatan and where it goes no body knows for sure. We also don't know what it's strength will be if it develops it's Northbound with some variation to the left or right in it's track. But although it may be raining this weekend in South Florida I'd enjoy the rain, do your thing and have fun because next weekend could be a real rain out if you were planning a BBQ at the beach. As Mike says you can swim in the pool in the rain anytime, so backyard parties are good as long as you are cranking up the AC inside and have a covered patio to lay out the food and beer.

As I said yesterday when all the models are screaming "SHARK!" you can figure there is some sort of big fish in the water. Time will tell how big, how strong and if it gets the name Alberto or not.

Here are some relevant Tweets posted online as they leave you with something to think about. If you follow Dabuh over time on Twitter or at his website you learn the method in his musical madness. Works for me.

https://dabuh.com

As for me I'll be offline this weekend for a long but fun Jewish Holiday known as Shavous or as my friends like to tease me "oh that's your holiday where you eat cheesecake!" and that's true too. Lots of new fruits, desserts and a heavy emphasis on dairy and cheese dishes mixed in with your regular chicken and meat dishes at different meals. We also will be surviving Ice Cream over Cherry Pie and my daughter is bringing chocolate and cinnamon cake that is like a long, danish cake basically. I keep it simple with Greek Salad, Blitzes, Turkey, Chicken and Rice, Lox and Bagels for various meals. I may be making Fake Bacon (beef, it's good) Gourmet Burgers and fancy potato salad for a meal. Time will tell much like the modeling for the big Memorial Day Tropical ??? as things evolve in real time. I go shopping, I buy the ingredients, some show up from far away and then we'll see what mood I'm in Sunday Morning to see what I actually make or bake! 

https://www.joyofkosher.com/recipes/double-chocolate-kokosh-cake/

https://www.chabad.org/library/article_cdo/aid/32627/jewish/Shavuot-Recipes.htm

So until I'm back on Monday please refer to Mike's www.spaghettimodels.com for all your tropical needs and be aware if you like NASCAR he's there too so he's really got you covered. Again I'll be back online blogging sometime late Monday well rested and ready to rock and roll with the punches for whatever may develop down in the tropics. http://www.spaghettimodels.com/raceday 

Also much of what may or may not develop down in the Caribbean will depend on what happens with regard to the shear. If the shear lessens as it is forecast to do so then something begins to wrap up into a designated system more than just models fantasizing as they often do this time of year. There are great shear maps on Spaghetti Models so make sure you move around throughout the site to fully actualize all the information he put there for you to utilize! 

The models are up at the top on the left. 

Take them with a lot of salt.

Like margaritas ;)

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter

Ps. Should I make a Margarita Cheesecake? Hmnn. Again I'll be back at my particular harbor sometime late on Monday and until then keep listening to the music and watching the tropics. There's a Key Lime Cheesecake there. Works for me.

https://www.edwardsdesserts.com/products/whole-pies/

Start of Hurricane Season. Predicting a Busy Season With Possible Landfalls to US so PREPARE NOW!

State of the tropics above.

Quiet and nothing happening.

Now is the time to prepare.

Get a plan. Buy stuff.

Everyone has different needs.

Medication vs extra diapers?

Beer vs Soda

Pet food?

How much water do we really need...

Unlike the baseball season there is no first pitch thrown out by the President, although the NHC regularly makes a pitch to the President for more money for the NHC. Money is key to research and better forecasting so we don't have to be reliant on the EURO model that currently is the Top Gun in forecasting leaving the American GFS model in the dust often. Sad, but true. I think they should give the NHC more money and help make the GFS GREAT AGAIN!

There is some chatter about a system in the Epac crossing over into the GOM and having some tropical possibilities down the road. I'm not a big believer in the crossover predictions as much as the possibility of moisture hanging out at the tail end of a cold front lingering too long over warm water near Florida. Happens and is more likely than crazy crossover scenarios though to be honest sometimes they do happen. So stay tuned.

http://www.publix.com/pages/publix-storm-basics

The link above is about as good as it gets to learn how to prepare for a Hurricane should you be new to South Florida and really who isn't? It's a state where locals often leave in search of cooler pastures and others move South for the warmth, jobs and a tropical lifestyle. Obviously part of a tropical lifestyle is the danger of tropical storms and hurricanes coming to visit when you weren't expecting them. So, read and take action by making a plan. Making a list of things necessary to you such as having an extra asthma inhaler or extra diapers in case Publix loses power... or it's roof and there is no new truck coming in with your favorite diapers. Happens.

I'm in Miami currently for a Jewish Holiday named Shavous and I'll be at my best friend's house (let's call her Magda to protect the innocent and make the guilty laugh) and we will be sipping red wine and nibbling on chocolate cheesecake for the duration of the holiday. Her birthday is June 1st and she is definitely a Category 3 or 4 Hurricane. There may be other food and activity involved but I'll be celebrating the start of the season and her birthday down here in Miami. See the picture below.. isn't she adorable? She's the blonde...obviously!

She makes me smile...or giggle or a little of both!

Thank God for best friends.........

Older picture above but you get the idea.

A close friend used to just call us both "trouble" 

And yeah...she's born on June 1st...

Duh...

Bobbistorm's Bottom Line on this Hurricane Season is expect a Hurricane to make landfall in the US and if we get lucky and it misses us thank your lucky stars! 

The water is hot, the air temperature is record breaking and that only heats up the waters near the coastline. Shear will lessen and Saharan Dust may not be able to save us as time goes by. Oh and El Nino is not currently predicted to pose a danger to tropical waves forming into Hurricanes this year!! The high temperature in Miami the other day beat the record for 1996 by five degrees. 1996 was a busy year for hurricanes. Every year is different. It's like picking a card out of a deck to see what you get when it comes to any one hurricane season. But I think it's safe to predict we have lots of trouble on the tropical horizon this year!!!

Get a plan, buy "stuff" and be prepared because by the time you get to Publix the water, soda and beer will all be gone.......... because the old timers here know when to go shopping.

Besos BobbiStorm

Follow me on Twitter @bobbistorm

Superman can't save you from a Hurricane! Only YOU can prepare and make a plan before the Hurricanes comes to call. It's your call.....

Don't say I didn't warn ya!!

Read previous posts for my forecasts and predictions.

And the list from A - Z on how you know a Hurricane is coming.

http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/2017/05/hurricane-warnings-how-do-you-know.html

Ps ...IF anything forms before Thursday Night...

www.spaghettimodels.com

www.hurricanecity.com

They will have all the details you need!

Welcome to the Atlantic Hurricane Season!