NHC Says Tropics Are Quiet Both in Atlantic & EPAC. Sometimes Though... Things Do Pop Up So... Never Say Never. Shavous Vacation Til Monday Evening. Eat Ice Cream or Cheesecake ;)

This graphic good as of late Friday.

Official image showing nothing happening.

NHC says for 5 days.

Let's see how that verifies in 5 days :)

But seriously not expecting anything to develop.

June is usually too soon....

...but often things pop up suddenly*

Let's look at the loop below.

Note the flow.

West to East 

Up above and down below.

Frontal boundaries are draped across the US.

Frontal boundaries over the South are stalled out.

In the Caribbean the typical Easterly Shear Zone reigns

Always watch old fronts especially off the East Coast...

....or in the Gulf of Mexico.

They are like dangling participles.

Hard to lose totally.

Sometimes they spin up fast.

A wider look shows us a few things.

How wide did you think I was gonna go...

Fronts up above....

Fronts down below.

Different types of fronts.

And an Inter Tropical Convergence Zone in between.

Note that white line that runs across the middle ...

The ITCZ as it used to be called.

It still is but often other names are used.

It's where our waves roll across and off of Africa.

It's where moisture off South America forms it's own in the EPAC.

Later in the season as this becomes more solid....

...we worry on the real storms... 

Hurricanes.

Not Invests.

Not Depressions.

Not Subtropical Storms.

Not even Tropical Storms.

As the waters warm we worry on hurricanes.

Cape Verde Hurricanes.

Africa up close.

It's worth noting everything has a season.

Indian Ocean is wet...

Tropical Waves are identifiable over Africa.

And each wave gets a bit higher in latitude.

This is a process as old as time.

That's why we have a rhyme.

June too soon.

July too stand by.

August you must.......

September Remember.

It's a cute rhyme we all learn growing up in Florida.

It really applies to Cape Verde Hurricanes.

Remember that asterisk?

* Much like old age things seem to pop up out of nowhere in June. My brother in Greece who is an author and musician uses that phrase when dealing with age related aches and pains. We suddenly remember all too well when our father gave up playing softball and Jai Alai and tennis and or anything that involved using his shoulder too much or too hard. He loved sports, but at some age he became more a spectator unless he was attempting to do catch with my brothers. Spoiler Alert: He was better at Jai Alai and tennis than he was catch...   My brother is getting to that age where things pop up and shift around in his body. It doesn't help that he fell out of a huge Tarzan like Ficus tree in Middle School breaking both his legs and an arm; maybe it was two arms and a leg but pretty sure it was both legs. I was living in California getting a play by play from my traumatized mother. Any time we got hurt or in trouble she was traumatized. It was truly traumatizing to realize you were the one that made her traumatized . . . 

The tropics in June when it's officially too soon are like old age... things pop up. Or maybe like a toddler you allow to play with your new CD and he throws it across the room and it breaks into a million pieces. Okay that didn't happen. We didn't have CDs then and we both think my mother broke it as she didn't like the song. Ouch...this has become a real mean fest over my mother. I loved my mother, I miss my mother... she passed on a few years ago and we remember her fondly with jokes. My father told jokes better than he played catch. I digress....  The point is just like ANDREA popped up suddenly out of nowhere.... so can some system at the tail end of a front and in the Gulf of Mexico from the remnants of the remnants of Invest 91L or who knows. Things pop up sometimes and things happen fast and form in the 4th day after the NHC says nothing will form over the next 5 days. I have digressed enough, back to weather ....

Below is the weather in motion.

For anyone who is new here....

Green means rain.

Dark green means heavy rain.

Red blobs are never good...

White means you have "fair" weather.

I've never been sure what "fair" weather means.

I suppose it's politically correct.

Good weather to me is a storm.

Good weather to you means you can sunbathe...

Flooding as I said earlier a few months back...

....will still be the big problem this Spring.

Going into this Summer as the rains continue.

Dabuh is watching waves.

I'm watching waves with him.

Mike is out on a big boat riding through the waves.

There is nothing currently brewing.

I'll be off until Monday evening.

It's Shavous a Jewish holiday my mother loved.

My father loved them all.

My mother loved blintzes and cheesecake.

Shavous is a Spring holiday.

You can read up about it if you wish.

Spring in the sense that it is Spring and...

...Spring fruits abound everywhere.

The tropics are dead but .....

.....there are berries galore in the store.

Making Blintzes Souffle.

Mac and Cheese.

Pimento Cheese.

Fruit Salads.

Lox and Cream Cheese on Onion Rolls.

Dips from Brooklyn bought in Baltimore.

The meat meals include Shake and Bake Chicken.

Sweet and Sour Meat Balls.

Chicken Soup my daughter is making as I type this...

... making French Onion Soup on Sunday.

Different meals for different days.

But those are the usual suspects.

Oh and cheese cake........

Lots of different toppings... 

Chocolate Cheesecake. Strawberry Cheesecake.

Okay I bought the one with different slices ;)

Trying to rest and keep it simple here.

I know it doesn't sound simple.

It is... compared to things I did in previous years.

https://www.busyinbrooklyn.com/tag/shavuot/

A good link to see what some people make.

Good recipes.

Oh did I mention there's an Ice Cream Bar at the Temple?

www.chabad.org

Feel free to Google it or find a Chabad House near you.

The Ice Cream Party is on Sunday after services.

So that's it.

Please refer to my usual friends online ....

www.spaghettimodels.com

www.hurricanecity.com

www.crownweather.com

https://dabuh.com/

http://www.stormhamster.com/entry2/e060719.htm

There's a few other people but sadly....

...someone's not talking to me.

Maybe I got too silly.

(I'm really sorry)

Or maybe I wasn't sorry enough :(

Anyways...........

I'll be back Monday evening.

Have a good weekend.

If you are at the beach use sunscreen!

If you are doing Shavous....

.... may I suggest Tagamet if dairy doesn't agree with you?

In truth if my oldest daughter wasn't here I'd probably barely cook.

I mean it's dairy? Does anyone really need blintzes?

I can live on yogurt, fruit and ice cream.

And a last note here.

It's not just me that has noticed the lack of storms in the EPAC.

Invest 91L disliked the Pacific so much it swam back into the Atlantic.

It crawled over mountains and jumped into the Gulf of Mexico.

It might still be there rouge like waiting to show up again?

The Epac has been quiet.

So much talk on it still being El Nino.

As far as I'm concerned we are on our way to Neutral.

Neutral as in kind of Normal .. Old School Hurricane Season.

Maybe even checking out La Nina soon ...

But it takes them so long to declare an El Nino....

...they have to wait a while to say it's leaving.

I know.. maybe Modoki

Yeah...whatever.

EPAC is quiet.

Check out Dabuh... 

He's good.

Plays well with others too!

Makes me laugh, smile and dance.

See y'all Monday Night.

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram.

Ps... as for my brother the writer who knows things "pop up"

Check out his latest book!

https://www.amazon.com/dp/1980911312

https://www.amazon.com/dp/1980911312

https://loiteringwords.com/

One Month to Go til Hurricane Season. May 1st.. Just Breathe and Watch the Patterns and Just Breathe.

May 1st awakens every tropical weather person to reverie every time they see a wave off Africa or convection in the Caribbean. Today marks a month until the start of the Atlantic Hurricane Season and more importantly 15 days until the start of the EPAC season where convection tends to wrap itself up into named storms first. From year to year this can change, but it's a pattern and Climatography dictates watching both sides of Central America this time of year. Storms form from convection that lingers on both sides of the Isthmus of Panama and there can only be one winner. If anything forms in the EPAC it would be Adrian and in the Atlantic Bret. Keep that in mind and don't start asking "what if it crosses over" before anything even forms.

I can tell it's getting closer to Hurricane Season when chatter online increases and people squabble over nothing except details that matter mostly to the Devil. To be clear we are already on the B storm and I'm not going to second guess or criticize or high five the NHC for their naming the system in the Atlantic Arlene. Life goes on, let's move on...

Watch where the moisture connects.

Watch where it flows.

Watch patterns set up.

Note the convection in the Gulf of Mexico link up with the frontal boundary pushing East. Watch what happens when that convection makes it down into the Caribbean and people online begin to bicker as to the possibilities for an early May storm. I don't watch for the storm, I watch the bickering and hype as signs of what will be down the line. Weather models are fun, but not as much fun as meteorologists. When people get hungry they get nasty, competitive and many are hungry for a "real hurricane season" whatever that is - - - as we haven't had one in a while. Last year was busy and yet it was not your normal Hurricane Season. Storms formed and faded away as if some Weather Witch was putting a spell on them to die an early death and yet they came back over and over. Colin and Hermine are probably best remembered for being Invests that fought to get a name and both made landfall. 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_Atlantic_hurricane_season

In the rear view mirror and the lens of history 2016 turned out to be a rather active hurricane season despite it's preliminary reviews in March and April of 2016. Remember that when throwing in the towel before the fight has begun or giving up half way through while blaming the moon and everything else for killing off the hurricanes. It takes time and time will always tell in the end.

Look at the map above ....

...you see the usual suspects.

Storms formed in the Eastern Atlantic for a change and most swam out to sea as fish storms usually do. Storms formed in the Caribbean and some went West and others took that popular route towards Florida. Julia formed over Florida and I got to intersect her path while driving South to visit family and friends after seeing Julia first. Everything in life is timing, especially storm chasing. Julia may not have been strong but the wind blew through my hair, it rearranged things, caused flooding and in general was an appetizer to the area that was to experience Hurricane Matthew down the road.

A look back at Matthew with early discussion and long range models.

http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/2016/09/97l-matthew-its-models-making.html

Then Invest 97L formed into Matthew and odd things began to happen. Who can remember the photogenic Hurricane Matthew spinning, building, partying just off the coast of South America? Which model was right? Which way would he go? Would that displaced convection hurt him or help him or was it really an irrelevant question in the end? Meteorology students will study Matthew for a long time I believe.

In the end Matthew flirted with Miami.

Traveled up the coast a bit to the East of Julia's track.

The powers that be debated if this was landfall.

Some moments from Matthew.

You decide? Looks like landfall to me.

But did the center of the eye make landfall?

Devil is in the details.

So are statistics it seems.

So while hearing early discussion on the 2017 Hurricane Season I would suggest you take it all with a lot of sea salt and watch it play out in real time. El Nino years often bring the biggest hurricanes (Andrew, Betsy to name two) and each El Nino is different and sometimes things that come together fast also fade away as fast. Mother Nature often has the last word the way she did with Hurricane Matthew.

So enjoy your favorite version of my theme of the morning with regard to the Hurricane Season that is now officially a month away, even though we are looking for the B storm already.

Just breathe............

As for me I've got things to do and here and there I loop a loop.

I learned much from 2016. I smelled a scent I liked but balked at buying it as it was expensive and sometimes you like a scent and then after a while you rarely use it ... and well I didn't buy it. Big mistake....

I really loved this scent, but a few weeks later when I finally decided to buy it ... it was gone. 

People bought it up and sold it on Ebay for way more than it was at Saks. Sigh.

So this trip to Miami I bought a scent I liked as I learned a good lesson. 

I wish I had the Orange Bitters from Jo Malone more ... but what can I do?

Except to live and learn and move on and now I'm wearing Magnolia Star today.

It's a nice scent and comes with a fake flower and as we know packaging is everything.

The magnolia trees here are just starting to bloom so I'll be in tune with the seasons.

Weather people love to bicker because they love weather and are passionate about it both in real time and in the rear view mirror. It's part and parcel of the Hurricane Season. For some reason people argue less over blizzards and tornadoes than they do hurricanes. Be warned we are moving into the Mean Season and it's called the "mean season" for a reason.

Besos BobbiStorm

Add me on Twitter at @bobbistorm

Ps. Yesterday was a banner day for me. I had a son-in-law in Budapest, a son in La Paz and my youngest son flying off to Madrid. Everyone's traveling and I'm happy to be home today, this week and who knows where I'll be the week after that. Wherever I am I'll be watching the weather and blogging. My brother in Greece is closer to my youngest son today than I am ... go figure. He's an artist, he is passionate about ART in any form. He writes, he makes films, he taught himself the flute and loves the harmonica. He did a short film for a project for a school there named Lord Byron School and he used the brilliant idea of using Lord Byron in the film. It's relaxing, creative and makes you want to just lie on the beach and breathe and ponder beauty in all forms both literature, nature and of course the beauty of people. Enjoy it. 

Can you tell we are related ?? Beautiful, especially for anyone who loves beauty and the harmonica.