System off SE Coast... Surfs Up FL ... Windy... Hurricane Season 2 Months Away. Are You Ready? Amber Sunsets and Some Thoughts on Moving Towards April.

Going to talk on the system off the SE Coast.

And talking a bit on hurricane season.

Along with a few other things for various reasons.

Before I talk on this further note....

That huge storm off the NW coast.

That is not a hurricane...

It's cyclonic....

Winter weather is far from over.

Even though we are dipping our toes into Spring.

Today off the SE coast is a small system.

Up close you can see it below.

See the tight gradients along the NE FL coast?

This is a system that is coming together.

TWC is on the scene.

Surf's up.

Windy.

Stormyish.

Locals are barely talking on it.

But for weather people it's weather.

Guessing they are shooting videos for Daytona Beach...

..future episodes about NASCAR or ??

If they had been in Cocoa Beach they'd have seen hail!

Huge hail.

Florida city sees so much hail it looks like piles of snow https://t.co/gIfzPI8O3V via @10NewsWTSP

— BobbiStorm (@BobbiStorm) March 27, 2019

When I was a kid in Miami I never saw snow.
But one day the ground was covered with hail.
I mean as in huge hail stones....
No green school yard it was all white like snow.
Happens...
Mike knows it happens.

Mike's Facebook Page has the video.

https://www.facebook.com/mikesweatherpage/posts/

In a month of so another similar system could get a name.

Subtropical Storms are always possible there in May.

It's April in 5 days. 

De Facto April today.

This loop shows the story.

Freezing cold clouds to the North.

Warmer water to the South.

Tail end of fronts...

Swirls that get stuck..

Swirls that swim up along the coast.

Caught in a busy flow so out to sea.

But things begin to change day by day now.

Beach by beach the waters warm up.

My brother posted this picture he took from a S FL beach.

https://www.instagram.com/ronnieschwartz/

He obviously went to the beach early.

Wind not as strong in Miami-Hollywood area.

But that sense of weather out there somewhere.... 

Ironically Jo Malone sent me this advertisement seconds later.

So I'm naming that picture of his Amber Sunrise :)

I have a love hate relationship with Jo Malone.

Most of the scents I hate or they hate me.

Way too strong, expensive 

And sometimes just so wrong.

But sometimes they get it so right.

I have allergies so......

... have to try them on carefully.

Beautiful packaging.

If I had the money I'd buy it for the packaging.

Silly huh?

That's kind of how I feel about TWC being in Daytona.

It's not that strong a storm but hey if you have the money.

You fly off and stand on the beach looking serious :)

And do live updates.

Choose wisely which beach to travel this time of year.

If you want wind... OBX is always good.

If you want warm water... South Beach is always good.

For today Daytona is definitely breezy.

Multiple alerts for high surf and rip currents.

As for my local beach which basically is Wrightsville in NC

(when not in Miami...)

They have a link on their site to water temperatures.

Rising water temperatures coming.

That link takes you to this page below.

This is why OBX usually gets hurricanes in August and September.

Doesn't really get bath tub like until then.

But each year is unique in it's own way.

Link to Wrightsville Beach NC NWS

https://www.weather.gov/ilm/WaterTemp-WrightsvilleBeach

That's me staring at the water in March of 2017.

It was a rare warm March day.

Headed to the beach.

But didn't go in because not a tourist.

Miami girl in NC ya know...

Back in Miami Beach...........

... the water temperature is 77 degrees!

http://www.surf-forecast.com/breaks/South-Beach_Miami/seatemp

That's more like it.

Another image from their site is shown below.

Anomalies ...

Gulf Stream warming up.

Beaches near the coast cold still.

Pockets of warm water in the GOM

And just off the Southeast coast.

Prime regions for early development.

Areas to watch in May are same areas in June.

June comes too soon for people who hate hurricanes.

And never too soon for trackers and chasers.

It's kind of like Jo Malone perfume.

Some hate it as it's very strong and often lingers....

.... others love it because it's strong and lingers.

What do you love?

Today I'm in love with the word Amber.

I fell in love with this song below because....

... I loved the lyrics "caramel colored sunset sky"

Awesomeness.

Maybe "amber sunset" needs a country song ;)

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram.

Ps... kudos to Dabuh he's been on the money.

Before The Weather Channel began talking about it.

One Month to Go til Hurricane Season. May 1st.. Just Breathe and Watch the Patterns and Just Breathe.

May 1st awakens every tropical weather person to reverie every time they see a wave off Africa or convection in the Caribbean. Today marks a month until the start of the Atlantic Hurricane Season and more importantly 15 days until the start of the EPAC season where convection tends to wrap itself up into named storms first. From year to year this can change, but it's a pattern and Climatography dictates watching both sides of Central America this time of year. Storms form from convection that lingers on both sides of the Isthmus of Panama and there can only be one winner. If anything forms in the EPAC it would be Adrian and in the Atlantic Bret. Keep that in mind and don't start asking "what if it crosses over" before anything even forms.

I can tell it's getting closer to Hurricane Season when chatter online increases and people squabble over nothing except details that matter mostly to the Devil. To be clear we are already on the B storm and I'm not going to second guess or criticize or high five the NHC for their naming the system in the Atlantic Arlene. Life goes on, let's move on...

Watch where the moisture connects.

Watch where it flows.

Watch patterns set up.

Note the convection in the Gulf of Mexico link up with the frontal boundary pushing East. Watch what happens when that convection makes it down into the Caribbean and people online begin to bicker as to the possibilities for an early May storm. I don't watch for the storm, I watch the bickering and hype as signs of what will be down the line. Weather models are fun, but not as much fun as meteorologists. When people get hungry they get nasty, competitive and many are hungry for a "real hurricane season" whatever that is - - - as we haven't had one in a while. Last year was busy and yet it was not your normal Hurricane Season. Storms formed and faded away as if some Weather Witch was putting a spell on them to die an early death and yet they came back over and over. Colin and Hermine are probably best remembered for being Invests that fought to get a name and both made landfall. 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_Atlantic_hurricane_season

In the rear view mirror and the lens of history 2016 turned out to be a rather active hurricane season despite it's preliminary reviews in March and April of 2016. Remember that when throwing in the towel before the fight has begun or giving up half way through while blaming the moon and everything else for killing off the hurricanes. It takes time and time will always tell in the end.

Look at the map above ....

...you see the usual suspects.

Storms formed in the Eastern Atlantic for a change and most swam out to sea as fish storms usually do. Storms formed in the Caribbean and some went West and others took that popular route towards Florida. Julia formed over Florida and I got to intersect her path while driving South to visit family and friends after seeing Julia first. Everything in life is timing, especially storm chasing. Julia may not have been strong but the wind blew through my hair, it rearranged things, caused flooding and in general was an appetizer to the area that was to experience Hurricane Matthew down the road.

A look back at Matthew with early discussion and long range models.

http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/2016/09/97l-matthew-its-models-making.html

Then Invest 97L formed into Matthew and odd things began to happen. Who can remember the photogenic Hurricane Matthew spinning, building, partying just off the coast of South America? Which model was right? Which way would he go? Would that displaced convection hurt him or help him or was it really an irrelevant question in the end? Meteorology students will study Matthew for a long time I believe.

In the end Matthew flirted with Miami.

Traveled up the coast a bit to the East of Julia's track.

The powers that be debated if this was landfall.

Some moments from Matthew.

You decide? Looks like landfall to me.

But did the center of the eye make landfall?

Devil is in the details.

So are statistics it seems.

So while hearing early discussion on the 2017 Hurricane Season I would suggest you take it all with a lot of sea salt and watch it play out in real time. El Nino years often bring the biggest hurricanes (Andrew, Betsy to name two) and each El Nino is different and sometimes things that come together fast also fade away as fast. Mother Nature often has the last word the way she did with Hurricane Matthew.

So enjoy your favorite version of my theme of the morning with regard to the Hurricane Season that is now officially a month away, even though we are looking for the B storm already.

Just breathe............

As for me I've got things to do and here and there I loop a loop.

I learned much from 2016. I smelled a scent I liked but balked at buying it as it was expensive and sometimes you like a scent and then after a while you rarely use it ... and well I didn't buy it. Big mistake....

I really loved this scent, but a few weeks later when I finally decided to buy it ... it was gone. 

People bought it up and sold it on Ebay for way more than it was at Saks. Sigh.

So this trip to Miami I bought a scent I liked as I learned a good lesson. 

I wish I had the Orange Bitters from Jo Malone more ... but what can I do?

Except to live and learn and move on and now I'm wearing Magnolia Star today.

It's a nice scent and comes with a fake flower and as we know packaging is everything.

The magnolia trees here are just starting to bloom so I'll be in tune with the seasons.

Weather people love to bicker because they love weather and are passionate about it both in real time and in the rear view mirror. It's part and parcel of the Hurricane Season. For some reason people argue less over blizzards and tornadoes than they do hurricanes. Be warned we are moving into the Mean Season and it's called the "mean season" for a reason.

Besos BobbiStorm

Add me on Twitter at @bobbistorm

Ps. Yesterday was a banner day for me. I had a son-in-law in Budapest, a son in La Paz and my youngest son flying off to Madrid. Everyone's traveling and I'm happy to be home today, this week and who knows where I'll be the week after that. Wherever I am I'll be watching the weather and blogging. My brother in Greece is closer to my youngest son today than I am ... go figure. He's an artist, he is passionate about ART in any form. He writes, he makes films, he taught himself the flute and loves the harmonica. He did a short film for a project for a school there named Lord Byron School and he used the brilliant idea of using Lord Byron in the film. It's relaxing, creative and makes you want to just lie on the beach and breathe and ponder beauty in all forms both literature, nature and of course the beauty of people. Enjoy it. 

Can you tell we are related ?? Beautiful, especially for anyone who loves beauty and the harmonica.