UPDATED! Alvin Strengthens in the Pacific to HURRICANE ALVIN.. Where's Barry in the Atlantic? June Not Too Soon For Debates and Candidates Surfing For Attention.

As I mentioned earlier today Alvin has strengthening........
...strengthening faster than NHC expected.

Alvin has been upgraded tonight to Hurricane status.

Compare and contrast with earlier today.

The earlier discussion is shown below.

Note it is said it's hard for models to handle small systems.

Alvin isn't that small... 

I know it's the HWRF ....

We have become so weighted to the EURO.. 

and the upgraded GFS (of course... sarcastically said)

But models did show this intensification was possible.

It was obvious this morning this could happen.

But the NHC drew the line at ain't gonna happen.

We know so much on track forecasting today.

But we still lag behind on intensity forecasting.

Something to remember as we move on in the season.

Use the models but adjust in real time ...

...to what is actually happening in real time.

Hope y'all enjoyed the 2nd Debate.

As for African waves....

These waves are getting higher and higher.

They also aren't fizzling when they hit the water.

What happens when the shear slows down as it's forecast to do?

It's a process.... 

Shear weakens.

Water warms up.

Something to take seriously.

2019 Hurricane Season.

Note.... Alvin wasn't taken so seriously.

Alvin exceeded it's early expectations.

The waves leaving Africa are also exceeding expectations.

PS..... Barbara seems to be forming behind Hurricane Alvin.

* * *

There's Alvin a 60 MPH Storm currently.

That's hours ahead of forecast by the way.

Small but mighty.

Living out his moment in the Pacific sun.

Look at that Pacific ITCZ coming alive.

Earthnull shows us Alvin clearly

That intense little circle off of Mexico.

Up close you can see Alvin tightly wound up.

NHC describes him below as TINY

Someone at the NHC is getting way too political there.

They sound today like Trump at that debate.

Marco Rubio has TINY HANDS.

Pretty sure they aren't happy.

But in the end Alvin bites the dust.

Or more so drowns in the cold, windy Pacific.

Barbara is the next name up.

Maybe Barbara is like Tulsi and she surfs?

Of course her name would probably be Barbi if so.

Okay I Googled her.

How could I not?

There's no hurricane in the Atlantic.

And not much new I learned otherwise at the debate.

What amazes me here is this...

She could have been a Victoria's Secret model.

And she went into politics.

That's kind of a win for women.

This is NOT a political endorsement.

It's more a confession.

I Googled her.

Hey I've heard Booker and De Blasio bicker before.

Nothing new there.

I said last night I was watching the debate the way you'd watch interesting waves work their way across the Atlantic. You don't expect them to do much in late June and you don't expect people in debates over a year before the election to really shine out bright enough to remember next June but Tulsi definitely made an impression. Note the fact that there are waves fighting their way West without shriveling up the moment they hit the Atlantic Ocean IS interesting and makes me wonder which one of them will try and be a Dark Horse Wave and develop close in as we move deep into July. 

I also watch Alvin because I'm curious to see how the NHC has handled him other than being nasty and making fun or his small size. Note Alvin is noticeable from outer space so maybe his stronger than expected intensity matters. It matters in that they dismissed models that called for quick intensifying and went with the usual candidates for tropical gold and came up playing with gold dust. 

This morning's discussion forecast points above.

Yesterday's forecast points.

Intensity if usually harder to forecast than position.

Let's move on to Barbara.

See my point here?

It's time women know they can be beautiful and......

........go into science or politics.

Note we have never had a woman director at the NHC.

Oh but one did run one of their libraries.

I'm not much a Women's Lib person.

I'm a who is the best candidate person.

I'm a person who looks at everyone.

Everyone has a story.

Every wave leaving Africa has a story.

Only some make it to a named storm.

Catching the NHC attention is not easy.

Top heavy works better than bottom heavy.

Waves that work out and develop good structure..

...vs those that look great on the bottom.

But don't exist on the top are goners.

Good structure.

Good bones.

Even small good bones get a name.

Like Alvin or the much maligned Beryl.

Remember Beryl?

Small hands Beryl?

Okay being silly today.

But why not?

It's hot.

It's getting hotter.

I'm debating July 4th plans.

Let's have some fun because we can.

Nothing big out there.

That brings us back to Beryl.

I believe Cranky called Beryl a Thunderstorm last year.

Beryl was a July 4th kind of storm.

Written off as too small.

Barely there Beryl.

"Not a sign of a busy season" (oops wrong)

https://time.com/5331664/hurricane-beryl-path-track/

Florence was originally written off as a Fish Storm.

Wrong.

Well no not wrong in that Florence swam and swam.

Florence swam all the way to the Carolinas.

Never count out early strong waves.

Never count out early strong candidates.

Never count out a smart beautiful woman!

I believe a woman can be smart, sexy, beautiful and fun.

But SMART is smart.

Just an observation.

Not a political endorsement.

And not saying Barbara will be bigger than Alvin.

But could happen.

As for the Atlantic we are on the B name.

Where's Barry?

If history repeats it's a weak early storm.

And the name lives for another season.

Maybe.

Let's look back at 2007.

Tropical Storm Barry.

In 2013 Barry was an early BOC system.

Tropics today........

The water is warm near the Yucatan.

It's very warm near the Florida Keys.

High pressure to the North......

...often opens a door to low pressure to the South of the High.

Keep watching as we move into July.

As for me going to be listening to Senorita today.

Over and over because I like it.

And Camilla is a smart, talented, beautiful woman.

Those things can go together.

Time for a smart, beautiful woman to believe....

..she can be the Director of the NHC.

Something to think on...

He landed in Miami......

The air was hot from summer rain.

Truth in those lyrics.

Close in development could happen early.

And waves could develop early.

But it depends on so many variables.

Only big question now is?

What happens next?

Besos BobbiStorm @bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram...follow me there for real time updates.

Ps.......  

System off SE Coast... Surfs Up FL ... Windy... Hurricane Season 2 Months Away. Are You Ready? Amber Sunsets and Some Thoughts on Moving Towards April.

Going to talk on the system off the SE Coast.

And talking a bit on hurricane season.

Along with a few other things for various reasons.

Before I talk on this further note....

That huge storm off the NW coast.

That is not a hurricane...

It's cyclonic....

Winter weather is far from over.

Even though we are dipping our toes into Spring.

Today off the SE coast is a small system.

Up close you can see it below.

See the tight gradients along the NE FL coast?

This is a system that is coming together.

TWC is on the scene.

Surf's up.

Windy.

Stormyish.

Locals are barely talking on it.

But for weather people it's weather.

Guessing they are shooting videos for Daytona Beach...

..future episodes about NASCAR or ??

If they had been in Cocoa Beach they'd have seen hail!

Huge hail.

Florida city sees so much hail it looks like piles of snow https://t.co/gIfzPI8O3V via @10NewsWTSP

— BobbiStorm (@BobbiStorm) March 27, 2019

When I was a kid in Miami I never saw snow.
But one day the ground was covered with hail.
I mean as in huge hail stones....
No green school yard it was all white like snow.
Happens...
Mike knows it happens.

Mike's Facebook Page has the video.

https://www.facebook.com/mikesweatherpage/posts/

In a month of so another similar system could get a name.

Subtropical Storms are always possible there in May.

It's April in 5 days. 

De Facto April today.

This loop shows the story.

Freezing cold clouds to the North.

Warmer water to the South.

Tail end of fronts...

Swirls that get stuck..

Swirls that swim up along the coast.

Caught in a busy flow so out to sea.

But things begin to change day by day now.

Beach by beach the waters warm up.

My brother posted this picture he took from a S FL beach.

https://www.instagram.com/ronnieschwartz/

He obviously went to the beach early.

Wind not as strong in Miami-Hollywood area.

But that sense of weather out there somewhere.... 

Ironically Jo Malone sent me this advertisement seconds later.

So I'm naming that picture of his Amber Sunrise :)

I have a love hate relationship with Jo Malone.

Most of the scents I hate or they hate me.

Way too strong, expensive 

And sometimes just so wrong.

But sometimes they get it so right.

I have allergies so......

... have to try them on carefully.

Beautiful packaging.

If I had the money I'd buy it for the packaging.

Silly huh?

That's kind of how I feel about TWC being in Daytona.

It's not that strong a storm but hey if you have the money.

You fly off and stand on the beach looking serious :)

And do live updates.

Choose wisely which beach to travel this time of year.

If you want wind... OBX is always good.

If you want warm water... South Beach is always good.

For today Daytona is definitely breezy.

Multiple alerts for high surf and rip currents.

As for my local beach which basically is Wrightsville in NC

(when not in Miami...)

They have a link on their site to water temperatures.

Rising water temperatures coming.

That link takes you to this page below.

This is why OBX usually gets hurricanes in August and September.

Doesn't really get bath tub like until then.

But each year is unique in it's own way.

Link to Wrightsville Beach NC NWS

https://www.weather.gov/ilm/WaterTemp-WrightsvilleBeach

That's me staring at the water in March of 2017.

It was a rare warm March day.

Headed to the beach.

But didn't go in because not a tourist.

Miami girl in NC ya know...

Back in Miami Beach...........

... the water temperature is 77 degrees!

http://www.surf-forecast.com/breaks/South-Beach_Miami/seatemp

That's more like it.

Another image from their site is shown below.

Anomalies ...

Gulf Stream warming up.

Beaches near the coast cold still.

Pockets of warm water in the GOM

And just off the Southeast coast.

Prime regions for early development.

Areas to watch in May are same areas in June.

June comes too soon for people who hate hurricanes.

And never too soon for trackers and chasers.

It's kind of like Jo Malone perfume.

Some hate it as it's very strong and often lingers....

.... others love it because it's strong and lingers.

What do you love?

Today I'm in love with the word Amber.

I fell in love with this song below because....

... I loved the lyrics "caramel colored sunset sky"

Awesomeness.

Maybe "amber sunset" needs a country song ;)

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram.

Ps... kudos to Dabuh he's been on the money.

Before The Weather Channel began talking about it.

Wrightsville Beach Day. Tropical Storm Chris Waiting on Upgrade to Hurricane. Expansive Storm the Opposite of Hurricane Beryl. Remnants of Beryl to Follow Chris. More Waves Rolling Off Africa.

Red Flag Warning 

Not so much for the waves or wind...

...but what a Rip Tide.

Strong, nonstop energy.

You can definitely tell a Tropical Storm is off the coast.

Those people look as if they are far out into the water, but they really barely standing in surf to their ankles. The waves are washing in strong and pulling out even stronger. You can stand on Johnnie Mercer Pier and watch this watery, stormy ballet for the inexpensive cost of $2 per adult. Best show in town and what a wonderful fishing pier. Go out to the end where the weather equipment is and the hard core fishermen out there all the time in almost any weather. There's an area closer in by the restaurant where you can sit and lick your Bunny Tracks Ice Cream Cone while watching the show below. Doesn't get much better than that. Oh, did I mention the air temperatures were cool after the "cold front" zipped through and with the clouds out most of the time it's a delightful break from the "feels like 104" temperatures most of the cities round these parts dealt with last week. Don't go INTO the water but feel free to shop around the store in the Pier, enjoy some beach snacks and play pinball if you are tired of being out on the beach. The view from the pier in any weather is a winner.

Note on days like yesterday the waves were breaking far from the shore.

Surfers were out but not as much as usual.

I was told the winds were problematic.

Old video as Hurricane Irene was about to pass by.

Surfers love Wilmington.

Hard not to love Wrightsville Beach nearby.

Not going to do model discussion today.

You know where to find the models.

www.spaghettimodels.com

Duh...

I'm going to write a bit today. 

So read or watch the pictures.

Some good videos.

Enjoy the music at the end.

Not going to long on discussion here about what will be with Chris because the reality is that at some point it will get picked up and go out to sea. It would have to be an epic forecast bust for this to come ashore and directly impact the coastline. Many storms have busted the forecast and taken a day trip to various parts of North Carolina in similar scenario, however it is not expected to do so. It is currently anchored or rather drifting a bit to the South while doing a loop. Understand water is warm there, warmer to the South but the problem Chris is having turning itself into the 2nd Hurricane of the 2018 Season is systemic to it's size and in contrast to small Tropical Storm Beryl that like a fast sports car was able to make those turns much faster than an 18 wheeler. 

Ever take a trip in a Winnebago? I haven't but know some people who have and they have to plot out the places they can go carefully, because there are some places they cannot go with a large, behomoth vehicle that you can barely park anywhere yet alone take on a high, sharp, twisting bridge. But out on the open road they look wonderful. Some people opt for the smaller kind and well to be honest some people pour their money into a boat and others pour their money into Motorhomes. Usually people who love the call of the open road, the romance of the trailer and many are afraid to fly. 

Seriously.

Think of Chris like a big ole Winnebago.

Big, fun, colorful.

It's harder for a big, huge, expansive circulation.

To ramp up into a hurricane.

But take a small, cute mustang.

Find a long, winding road.

Watch the small sports car do what...

...a large Winnebago could never do.

Because Beryl was so small it could evade the Saharan Dust in cooler water and do what a small, fast sports car could do. Huge, beautiful Chris looping off the Outer Banks and the Carolinas is so big, so large and it's wind field is having a problem contracting and maintaining extreme convection and the high winds it needs to become the hurricane it is forecast to do. This is a long term story, not for the feint of heart who need an immediate ending here. Move on if you are looking for a story told in a day or two. Watch the rescue of the Thai children stuck in the cave with their coach coming out by one one winding their way under water being led out by heroes risking their lives to get these kids to safety. Come back in a day or two Chris will be there. 

Discussion below:

Salient part in blue.

MOST IMPORTANT PART

LIFE THREATENING RIP CURRENTS

Still forecast to be a HURRICANE.

Now let's talk about Beryl.

I know they killed it off right?

Right.

Well...not so right.

They killed it off but....

...they are still watching it's remnants.

Seems like Beryl likes Chris.

Beryl's remnants 40% currently...

...to redevelop.

For now "Beryl" is an open wave.

Note there is a very small swirl on some sat images left.

But it's easy to say it's dead in the water.

Not really.

Kicking up weather in the Islands.

Flaring up on radar bigger now ...

...than it was as a hurricane.

Actually Beryl's Remnants raining over PR

Below you can see our areas we are watching.

Chris off the Carolinas.

Remnants of Beryl in the Islands.

Tropical Wave coming off of Africa.

Moisture in the Caribbean.

Note how Beryl's Remnants are sucking up moisture..

..from the ITCZ

For now "Beryl" has a good fuel supply.

Chris wants to be a hurricane.

Watch for baroclinic and extratropical in discussion.

Expansive Wind Field...

Note the tropics below.

In motion

Chris trying to pull it together.

Wearing pretty tropical colors today on NRL

Track from NRL.

Shaded area needs to watch carefully.

Track of Chris in red in the middle.

Below you can see Chris from up above.

You can't see Beryl's Remnants.

Turn the world around.

Maria in the West Pacific.

Moving towards China.

My youngest son is in China this week.

Enjoying Architectural wonders.

I'm home watching on Snapchat and WhatsApp

Yeah praying Maria finds a less populated spot to make landfall.

Then Shanghai or Beijing. 

What do you do about a problem named Maria?

Stop using that name please.

Trying not to think on that.

Let's go back to the beach.

Go, enjoy but stay out of the water.

Sit a spell.

Feel the waves on your toes.

Reach down and feel the water.

Life is good at the beach.

There's always that one guy.

Who needs to touch the water.

Feel it run through this fingers.

He and the others got swamped by a strong wave.

A little bit later. 

:)

It was a wonderful day at the beach.

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter

https://www.facebook.com/bobbi.storm.5

Ps... I'll update as we get more information from Recon.

This will be a Live Blog at some point today.

If and when Chris is updated to Hurricane.

Til then enjoy the music.

Oh and I have a friend with a birthday today.

This song is for him.