Coastal Low with Tropical Energy ... Feels Like Winter... November. What Will This Winter Bring I Wonder...

Is that wild or what?

And there it is....

...our coastal Storm.

Our Nor'easter like system.

A large system.

Note the dark convection at it's tail.

Down in the Caribbean.

Where it's energy is coming from.. 

Watching it unfold in real time is beautiful.

Beautiful loop as the Coastal Storm come together in real time pic.twitter.com/nXe2MHZPZJ

— BobbiStorm (@BobbiStorm) November 15, 2019

Watches and warnings are up.

I wouldn't be surprise if more are hoisted.

This system is over performing.

Stronger than expected.

Love the discussion out of Raleigh

"as I write ...."

Weather can be so live.

Best reality show there is...

An awesome meteorologist is in Charlotte, NC.

I joke I want to move there...

....just so I'm in his forecast area.

In truth I like Charlotte but he's awesome.

This is a huge system with flooding concerns.

Inland flooding where there are lakes.

The Carolinas have many lakes.
Wind whipped waves on lakes.

High waves.... wind... beach erosion.

And there's another system on the way.

Winter is on the move this Fall.

I'm trying to hold onto Autumn a bit.

Though it feels like winter.

Cooking soup and the house smells good.

Be very careful at the beaches this weekend.

And I mean up in Virginia and beyond. 

OBX is used to this.... 

If you want storms it's a great place to live.

Hurricanes and Winter Storms.

From www.crownweather.com

Tropical Storm force like winds.

Gusts closer to hurricane force possible.

"offshore they could top 80 mph" good discussion from @wxbrad as always https://t.co/9WDGRKq12Z

— BobbiStorm (@BobbiStorm) November 15, 2019

If you live in my neck of the woods.

And you like stormy weather....

... you'll love this weekend!

Coastal Lows continue.... 

...at some point the weather will be more wintry.

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram

Great video of a real Winter Storm at OBX.

Doesn't get more beautiful than that.

If you like winter storms and OBX

And I do... 

System off SE Coast... Surfs Up FL ... Windy... Hurricane Season 2 Months Away. Are You Ready? Amber Sunsets and Some Thoughts on Moving Towards April.

Going to talk on the system off the SE Coast.

And talking a bit on hurricane season.

Along with a few other things for various reasons.

Before I talk on this further note....

That huge storm off the NW coast.

That is not a hurricane...

It's cyclonic....

Winter weather is far from over.

Even though we are dipping our toes into Spring.

Today off the SE coast is a small system.

Up close you can see it below.

See the tight gradients along the NE FL coast?

This is a system that is coming together.

TWC is on the scene.

Surf's up.

Windy.

Stormyish.

Locals are barely talking on it.

But for weather people it's weather.

Guessing they are shooting videos for Daytona Beach...

..future episodes about NASCAR or ??

If they had been in Cocoa Beach they'd have seen hail!

Huge hail.

Florida city sees so much hail it looks like piles of snow https://t.co/gIfzPI8O3V via @10NewsWTSP

— BobbiStorm (@BobbiStorm) March 27, 2019

When I was a kid in Miami I never saw snow.
But one day the ground was covered with hail.
I mean as in huge hail stones....
No green school yard it was all white like snow.
Happens...
Mike knows it happens.

Mike's Facebook Page has the video.

https://www.facebook.com/mikesweatherpage/posts/

In a month of so another similar system could get a name.

Subtropical Storms are always possible there in May.

It's April in 5 days. 

De Facto April today.

This loop shows the story.

Freezing cold clouds to the North.

Warmer water to the South.

Tail end of fronts...

Swirls that get stuck..

Swirls that swim up along the coast.

Caught in a busy flow so out to sea.

But things begin to change day by day now.

Beach by beach the waters warm up.

My brother posted this picture he took from a S FL beach.

https://www.instagram.com/ronnieschwartz/

He obviously went to the beach early.

Wind not as strong in Miami-Hollywood area.

But that sense of weather out there somewhere.... 

Ironically Jo Malone sent me this advertisement seconds later.

So I'm naming that picture of his Amber Sunrise :)

I have a love hate relationship with Jo Malone.

Most of the scents I hate or they hate me.

Way too strong, expensive 

And sometimes just so wrong.

But sometimes they get it so right.

I have allergies so......

... have to try them on carefully.

Beautiful packaging.

If I had the money I'd buy it for the packaging.

Silly huh?

That's kind of how I feel about TWC being in Daytona.

It's not that strong a storm but hey if you have the money.

You fly off and stand on the beach looking serious :)

And do live updates.

Choose wisely which beach to travel this time of year.

If you want wind... OBX is always good.

If you want warm water... South Beach is always good.

For today Daytona is definitely breezy.

Multiple alerts for high surf and rip currents.

As for my local beach which basically is Wrightsville in NC

(when not in Miami...)

They have a link on their site to water temperatures.

Rising water temperatures coming.

That link takes you to this page below.

This is why OBX usually gets hurricanes in August and September.

Doesn't really get bath tub like until then.

But each year is unique in it's own way.

Link to Wrightsville Beach NC NWS

https://www.weather.gov/ilm/WaterTemp-WrightsvilleBeach

That's me staring at the water in March of 2017.

It was a rare warm March day.

Headed to the beach.

But didn't go in because not a tourist.

Miami girl in NC ya know...

Back in Miami Beach...........

... the water temperature is 77 degrees!

http://www.surf-forecast.com/breaks/South-Beach_Miami/seatemp

That's more like it.

Another image from their site is shown below.

Anomalies ...

Gulf Stream warming up.

Beaches near the coast cold still.

Pockets of warm water in the GOM

And just off the Southeast coast.

Prime regions for early development.

Areas to watch in May are same areas in June.

June comes too soon for people who hate hurricanes.

And never too soon for trackers and chasers.

It's kind of like Jo Malone perfume.

Some hate it as it's very strong and often lingers....

.... others love it because it's strong and lingers.

What do you love?

Today I'm in love with the word Amber.

I fell in love with this song below because....

... I loved the lyrics "caramel colored sunset sky"

Awesomeness.

Maybe "amber sunset" needs a country song ;)

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram.

Ps... kudos to Dabuh he's been on the money.

Before The Weather Channel began talking about it.

Tropical Cyclone Iba Off the South American Coast Near Brazil. Rare South Atlantic Storm.

That's the coast of Brazil.

It's not China and it's not South Carolina.

And that's Iba... 

Tropical Cyclone Iba.

Unless you are a real tropical cyclone person...

..you probably didn't hear about it.

It doesn't show up on the NHC main page.

It says nothing going on in the Atlantic.

I guess they mean North Atlantic..

There are a lot of basins to be fair.

And though not unprecedented it's rare.

2019 Storms ... NRL doesn't show Iba.

But Iba is there none the less.

What's interesting to me is to look back over other years that produced a South Atlantic Cyclone and to see if there are any similarities we can see between this year and that year. This is the time of year when all the mitigating factors that contribute to hurricane development in the Atlantic Basin are studied to see which may be factors in the particular hurricane season.

Everyone online has been watching models.

Mike is always watching the tropics.

Models are hinting at development of a Low.

But that low is not likely to get a nod from the NHC.

The NWS will be issuing any necessary watches and warnings.

High surf, wind at the coast...

Who can say .... it hasn't formed but seems it will.

Rob's Crown Weather Services is a paid service.

He issues daily reports.

It's worth noting he's been talking on it for a while.

And DaBuh who never let a good wave go to waste....

...has been watching and posting online.

You definitely want to follow him if...

1) you do tropical weather

2) you live near the Florida or East Coast

3) if you surf anywhere near those beaches.

#OBX Low Pressure....

Very possible.

Each new system has followed a similar set up.

Back here to the Carolina coast.

Interesting how there was a large front and then....

..a small mini reflection here shown to the Wouth of it.

As we move deeper into the 2019 year....

..more fronts will fall apart and dangle off the SE coast.

They will need to be watched carefully.

Dabuh has been watching water temperatures a lot lately.

As in daily watching important areas with early development.

The water off the Yucatan is hot enough to boil eggs..

..okay it just feels that warm.

Bathtub Warm.

Early season development likes very warm water.

When the air temperature is in the high 80s in the Florida Keys.

And when the Yucatan is this warm.

Trouble is likely to happen early.

There are a lot of maps on Spaghetti Models.

You might want to scroll down and look around.

They could become useful sooner rather than later.

Just because there's no tropical updates from the NHC...

...doesn't mean there isn't weather in the tropics.

Take care and I'll update soon.

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram.

UPDATED! SUNDAY AM! Beryl Is BACK. This Time As a Subtropical Storm. Nothing Expected After Beryl Moves On... For Awhile. 2 Weeks Til August. But...It's Been a Strange Quirky Year So Expect Surprises to Continue. NATL ICE CREAM DAY

Quick update on Beryl

Our Subtropical Storm Sitting over the Gulf Stream.

Good picture on Twitter from @sjltx1963

It is out there.

Small center as always.

Tightly wrapped as always.

Discussion about it being over the Gulf Stream.

Not moving much.

Not much expected.

Sort of Beryl's story from the beginning.

You got to think of Beryl like one of those preemie babies born way back that wasn't expected to make it. The odds were too great, it was too tiny and not able to survive. Yet it survived. Beryl thrived in negative conditions, swam around like some sort of scuba diver hiding from the surface. Then coming back and showing her colors once over the warmer waters of the Gulf Stream. And, speaking of "warmer waters" in theory check out this map of the cooler waters Chris left behind. 

Yet somehow Beryl found her groove again.

No disrespect to NHC but it's now a Canadian storm.

So showing their map first.

NHC below.

What's note worthy is Beryl reformed over coolerwater.

Beryl formed in the Atlantic over cooler water.

Maybe our thoughts on cool water need to...

....be rethunk :)

Still spinning after all this time.

It's Sunday I'm in a mood.

Ice Cream is on my radar for lunch.

Do we need to wonder on what's off the SE coast?

Possibly. Fronts are wonderful this time of year.

But then they fall flat there and well yeah...

Sometimes something spins up.

Dabuh raises that question.

As he has been in Surfer Heaven...

...he's very aware of the weather.

And that's it for this morning's update.

On the little storm that could

https://parade.com/685622/leahingram/8-deals-for-national-ice-cream-day-2018/

What's your favorite Ice Cream Flavor?

My inquiring mind wants to know ;)

Besos BobbiStornm

@bobbistorm on Twitter

#Bobbistorminsaillymood.

Ps.. Remember back in 1993.

A strange little comedy became a big hit.

Jamaican Bob Sled Team.

That's kind of what Beryl reminds me of...

You can clearly see the closed circulation above.

And the official map from the NHC below.

So Beryl is back.

This time as a Subtropical Storm.

That makes sense.

Being reborn that far North in the Atlantic.

Sailing even farther North...

...out to sea.

Relevant data from NHC below.

Note Sable Island could get impacted again.

An impressive storm system really.

Born against all the odds in a sea of dust.

Water temperatures cooler than normal.

Dry air everywhere. 

Yet she became a Hurricane anyway.

Small, itsby, bitsy hurricane.

But a hurricane for the record book.

Now cruising in the North Atlantic.

Go figure.

Sat image above.

Note the broad center.

Weather far removed from the center.

Weather everywhere.

Below is NOT Beryl

Seems like just rain.

Out by African more rain.

New wave, next wave.

Speaking of waves.

Quiet, serene looking water below.

Small waves, blue sky.

The horizon in between.

Speaking of waves ....

Will the rest of July be quiet?

Hard to say.

Odd year.

Possibilities out there.

So we will keep watching.

I had a beautiful Shabbos today (Jewish Sabbath on Saturday) and the weather even cooperated making it a joy to be outside in the middle of July. The air was not heavy, it was actually delightful in the shade and not bad even in the sunshine. And, there was so much sunshine today. The trees here in Raleigh look a little bit droopy, we could use a little rain I'm guessing. But, it was and has been beautiful the last few days. I'll be back to update as needed but there really isn't much of a need to update on Beryl is there? Two coastal cruisers that remained out in the Atlantic Ocean so far, but I wouldn't count on us being that lucky the rest of the year. Who knows? We'll see. Time always tells. While time is telling have fun, be happy and rock steady.

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on twitter 

https://www.facebook.com/bobbi.storm.5 on Facebook 

Ps... Here's some beach music if you really need me to offer you a tune ;)