UPDATED! Alvin Strengthens in the Pacific to HURRICANE ALVIN.. Where's Barry in the Atlantic? June Not Too Soon For Debates and Candidates Surfing For Attention.

As I mentioned earlier today Alvin has strengthening........
...strengthening faster than NHC expected.

Alvin has been upgraded tonight to Hurricane status.

Compare and contrast with earlier today.

The earlier discussion is shown below.

Note it is said it's hard for models to handle small systems.

Alvin isn't that small... 

I know it's the HWRF ....

We have become so weighted to the EURO.. 

and the upgraded GFS (of course... sarcastically said)

But models did show this intensification was possible.

It was obvious this morning this could happen.

But the NHC drew the line at ain't gonna happen.

We know so much on track forecasting today.

But we still lag behind on intensity forecasting.

Something to remember as we move on in the season.

Use the models but adjust in real time ...

...to what is actually happening in real time.

Hope y'all enjoyed the 2nd Debate.

As for African waves....

These waves are getting higher and higher.

They also aren't fizzling when they hit the water.

What happens when the shear slows down as it's forecast to do?

It's a process.... 

Shear weakens.

Water warms up.

Something to take seriously.

2019 Hurricane Season.

Note.... Alvin wasn't taken so seriously.

Alvin exceeded it's early expectations.

The waves leaving Africa are also exceeding expectations.

PS..... Barbara seems to be forming behind Hurricane Alvin.

* * *

There's Alvin a 60 MPH Storm currently.

That's hours ahead of forecast by the way.

Small but mighty.

Living out his moment in the Pacific sun.

Look at that Pacific ITCZ coming alive.

Earthnull shows us Alvin clearly

That intense little circle off of Mexico.

Up close you can see Alvin tightly wound up.

NHC describes him below as TINY

Someone at the NHC is getting way too political there.

They sound today like Trump at that debate.

Marco Rubio has TINY HANDS.

Pretty sure they aren't happy.

But in the end Alvin bites the dust.

Or more so drowns in the cold, windy Pacific.

Barbara is the next name up.

Maybe Barbara is like Tulsi and she surfs?

Of course her name would probably be Barbi if so.

Okay I Googled her.

How could I not?

There's no hurricane in the Atlantic.

And not much new I learned otherwise at the debate.

What amazes me here is this...

She could have been a Victoria's Secret model.

And she went into politics.

That's kind of a win for women.

This is NOT a political endorsement.

It's more a confession.

I Googled her.

Hey I've heard Booker and De Blasio bicker before.

Nothing new there.

I said last night I was watching the debate the way you'd watch interesting waves work their way across the Atlantic. You don't expect them to do much in late June and you don't expect people in debates over a year before the election to really shine out bright enough to remember next June but Tulsi definitely made an impression. Note the fact that there are waves fighting their way West without shriveling up the moment they hit the Atlantic Ocean IS interesting and makes me wonder which one of them will try and be a Dark Horse Wave and develop close in as we move deep into July. 

I also watch Alvin because I'm curious to see how the NHC has handled him other than being nasty and making fun or his small size. Note Alvin is noticeable from outer space so maybe his stronger than expected intensity matters. It matters in that they dismissed models that called for quick intensifying and went with the usual candidates for tropical gold and came up playing with gold dust. 

This morning's discussion forecast points above.

Yesterday's forecast points.

Intensity if usually harder to forecast than position.

Let's move on to Barbara.

See my point here?

It's time women know they can be beautiful and......

........go into science or politics.

Note we have never had a woman director at the NHC.

Oh but one did run one of their libraries.

I'm not much a Women's Lib person.

I'm a who is the best candidate person.

I'm a person who looks at everyone.

Everyone has a story.

Every wave leaving Africa has a story.

Only some make it to a named storm.

Catching the NHC attention is not easy.

Top heavy works better than bottom heavy.

Waves that work out and develop good structure..

...vs those that look great on the bottom.

But don't exist on the top are goners.

Good structure.

Good bones.

Even small good bones get a name.

Like Alvin or the much maligned Beryl.

Remember Beryl?

Small hands Beryl?

Okay being silly today.

But why not?

It's hot.

It's getting hotter.

I'm debating July 4th plans.

Let's have some fun because we can.

Nothing big out there.

That brings us back to Beryl.

I believe Cranky called Beryl a Thunderstorm last year.

Beryl was a July 4th kind of storm.

Written off as too small.

Barely there Beryl.

"Not a sign of a busy season" (oops wrong)

https://time.com/5331664/hurricane-beryl-path-track/

Florence was originally written off as a Fish Storm.

Wrong.

Well no not wrong in that Florence swam and swam.

Florence swam all the way to the Carolinas.

Never count out early strong waves.

Never count out early strong candidates.

Never count out a smart beautiful woman!

I believe a woman can be smart, sexy, beautiful and fun.

But SMART is smart.

Just an observation.

Not a political endorsement.

And not saying Barbara will be bigger than Alvin.

But could happen.

As for the Atlantic we are on the B name.

Where's Barry?

If history repeats it's a weak early storm.

And the name lives for another season.

Maybe.

Let's look back at 2007.

Tropical Storm Barry.

In 2013 Barry was an early BOC system.

Tropics today........

The water is warm near the Yucatan.

It's very warm near the Florida Keys.

High pressure to the North......

...often opens a door to low pressure to the South of the High.

Keep watching as we move into July.

As for me going to be listening to Senorita today.

Over and over because I like it.

And Camilla is a smart, talented, beautiful woman.

Those things can go together.

Time for a smart, beautiful woman to believe....

..she can be the Director of the NHC.

Something to think on...

He landed in Miami......

The air was hot from summer rain.

Truth in those lyrics.

Close in development could happen early.

And waves could develop early.

But it depends on so many variables.

Only big question now is?

What happens next?

Besos BobbiStorm @bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram...follow me there for real time updates.

Ps.......  

System off SE Coast... Surfs Up FL ... Windy... Hurricane Season 2 Months Away. Are You Ready? Amber Sunsets and Some Thoughts on Moving Towards April.

Going to talk on the system off the SE Coast.

And talking a bit on hurricane season.

Along with a few other things for various reasons.

Before I talk on this further note....

That huge storm off the NW coast.

That is not a hurricane...

It's cyclonic....

Winter weather is far from over.

Even though we are dipping our toes into Spring.

Today off the SE coast is a small system.

Up close you can see it below.

See the tight gradients along the NE FL coast?

This is a system that is coming together.

TWC is on the scene.

Surf's up.

Windy.

Stormyish.

Locals are barely talking on it.

But for weather people it's weather.

Guessing they are shooting videos for Daytona Beach...

..future episodes about NASCAR or ??

If they had been in Cocoa Beach they'd have seen hail!

Huge hail.

Florida city sees so much hail it looks like piles of snow https://t.co/gIfzPI8O3V via @10NewsWTSP

— BobbiStorm (@BobbiStorm) March 27, 2019

When I was a kid in Miami I never saw snow.
But one day the ground was covered with hail.
I mean as in huge hail stones....
No green school yard it was all white like snow.
Happens...
Mike knows it happens.

Mike's Facebook Page has the video.

https://www.facebook.com/mikesweatherpage/posts/

In a month of so another similar system could get a name.

Subtropical Storms are always possible there in May.

It's April in 5 days. 

De Facto April today.

This loop shows the story.

Freezing cold clouds to the North.

Warmer water to the South.

Tail end of fronts...

Swirls that get stuck..

Swirls that swim up along the coast.

Caught in a busy flow so out to sea.

But things begin to change day by day now.

Beach by beach the waters warm up.

My brother posted this picture he took from a S FL beach.

https://www.instagram.com/ronnieschwartz/

He obviously went to the beach early.

Wind not as strong in Miami-Hollywood area.

But that sense of weather out there somewhere.... 

Ironically Jo Malone sent me this advertisement seconds later.

So I'm naming that picture of his Amber Sunrise :)

I have a love hate relationship with Jo Malone.

Most of the scents I hate or they hate me.

Way too strong, expensive 

And sometimes just so wrong.

But sometimes they get it so right.

I have allergies so......

... have to try them on carefully.

Beautiful packaging.

If I had the money I'd buy it for the packaging.

Silly huh?

That's kind of how I feel about TWC being in Daytona.

It's not that strong a storm but hey if you have the money.

You fly off and stand on the beach looking serious :)

And do live updates.

Choose wisely which beach to travel this time of year.

If you want wind... OBX is always good.

If you want warm water... South Beach is always good.

For today Daytona is definitely breezy.

Multiple alerts for high surf and rip currents.

As for my local beach which basically is Wrightsville in NC

(when not in Miami...)

They have a link on their site to water temperatures.

Rising water temperatures coming.

That link takes you to this page below.

This is why OBX usually gets hurricanes in August and September.

Doesn't really get bath tub like until then.

But each year is unique in it's own way.

Link to Wrightsville Beach NC NWS

https://www.weather.gov/ilm/WaterTemp-WrightsvilleBeach

That's me staring at the water in March of 2017.

It was a rare warm March day.

Headed to the beach.

But didn't go in because not a tourist.

Miami girl in NC ya know...

Back in Miami Beach...........

... the water temperature is 77 degrees!

http://www.surf-forecast.com/breaks/South-Beach_Miami/seatemp

That's more like it.

Another image from their site is shown below.

Anomalies ...

Gulf Stream warming up.

Beaches near the coast cold still.

Pockets of warm water in the GOM

And just off the Southeast coast.

Prime regions for early development.

Areas to watch in May are same areas in June.

June comes too soon for people who hate hurricanes.

And never too soon for trackers and chasers.

It's kind of like Jo Malone perfume.

Some hate it as it's very strong and often lingers....

.... others love it because it's strong and lingers.

What do you love?

Today I'm in love with the word Amber.

I fell in love with this song below because....

... I loved the lyrics "caramel colored sunset sky"

Awesomeness.

Maybe "amber sunset" needs a country song ;)

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram.

Ps... kudos to Dabuh he's been on the money.

Before The Weather Channel began talking about it.

Tropics Wednesday. Invest 91L Not Doing Anything Yet. BOC Bound? Will Energy Transfer to the E Coast of Florida or Florida or Bahamas? Maybe. It's June.. .Watch & Wait. Euro Watching Florida Today? Hmnn Some Thoughts on Why We Shouldn't Live or Die By the Models Especially in June. Being Unique and Who We Are Online...

Tropics Today.

Watching the tropics in June to see if something will or won't develop isn't for the faint of heart. It's especially dangerous to live and die by the models as this time of year due to "feedback issues" the models often produce vigorous tropical storms just to lose them once people take the bait. Simply said the models in June are basically "click bait" and that's why I watch the satellite loops and other forecasting tools to see what I really think will happen rather than click on "you should see the so and so twins today" and spoiler alert clicking on those links never ends well.

That said I do look at the models, but only after carefully examining what exists and contemplating the shear maps, the water temperatures (that change daily sometimes) and low and high pressure patterns. I watch cold fronts that ooze Down South enough to wear jeans vs shorts on a cool June evening out in Raleigh. I watch hurricane history and use many grains of salt when dealing with anything down in the SW Carib that is forecast to develop in early June or late November.

MOST IMPORTANT TAKE AWAY HERE TO REMEMBER.
Never ever rely on or believe in ANY model until the area being investigated has a clear cut, verified center of circulation. And if there are multiple centers vying for control think twice on the model until that one center becomes the real thing. Only with good data from recon and a good starting point do you get a good end result. And, even then models change in real time as the storm itself senses new atmospheric steering currents and conditions that may alter the track or intensity of the storm that no model noticed. The next model run the model will adjust to the storm not the other way around!

To understand who I am and how I think it's worth understanding I studied dance at a young age and cannot stop myself from moving to the beat of a song I love. I studied meteorology in college as to how it relates to the larger political structure of the world as meteorology and it's boring uncle Climo has dictated time and again over and over why one country went to war with another country. Even in the ever changing world in which we live... weather affects everything. If you don't believe me follow Commodities for a while and you will see how weather can make or break fortunes.  So this blog post today is inspired by Ed Sheeran and Sting as we will keep on making the same mistakes as we follow the models refusing to be the leader vs the follower.



A case in point is the word "regardless" was used in official discussion and suddenly every weather person on air or online wove the word regardless into their forecast yesterday for the heavy rain fall Texas may receive regardless of a name or just a large mass of tropical rain moving into Texas. Yeah... how did that work for you all? Yes, with Harvey fresh in everyone's minds millions of people clicked on links wondering if Invest 91L would be the next Harvey like storm. Get a grip gang. And think for yourself a little bit and learn to wait and watch and see what will or won't develop especially this far out.

NHC above.

X marks the spot.

Below... close up map.

Ledge of Honduras.

I don't understand the rush by "pros" to be the first to post the first model run when the EURO follows the GFS and produces a possible storm and then just the way most divas the GFS suddenly leaves the scene of the crime leaving everyone upset and dismayed that the EURO made the same stupid mistake. Since the beginning of recorded history messy blobs of convection have sat down on the ledge of Honduras and shear blows off their convection to the central Caribbean and models dance about as if they are in dress rehearsal and meteorologists follow every frame that the models put out jumping to conclusions. Models do not TALK they infer, they imply and they often lie. If you are going to follow a meteorologist who talks on models make sure they really understand the nuances and are not just repeating the party line regardless of what may actually happen. Models are really not as simple as they look and not for the faint of heart. Always believe in models AFTER a true center has formed.

It's always good to be a leader rather than a follower. Find a few good mets who know how to lead vs follow and know what the heck they are doing vs following the pack. I've had more than a few people ask me how Mike became so big online and especially on Facebook where people wait to see him to do Facebook Live. The reason they do is that they have not been burned by him with bad information and he is the first one to say he could be wrong. He talks on the models, shows.... no teaches people how to use the models and then gives his own thoughts peppered with what the official line is while reminding people the NHC is the bottom line... even if he doesn't agree or see how it will play out. He is very honest and knowledgeable. Yet jealous long time on air types make fun of people like us who are popular online and seem dismayed that people actually enjoy reading a blog or going to a weather website run by someone who didn't get an online meteorology degree from MSU. We are who we are and we don't pretend to not be who we are and I believe people respect that honesty.

Great song...



I didn't write nonstop Tweets using the world "REGARDLESS" yesterday as I'm not going to wax poetic on a storm that hasn't even formed a center before warning people all across the coast of GOM that they need to worry on huge amounts of tropical rain just because everyone else is doing so. Yes, I will say that IF this forms we need to worry on the set up and explain why we watch weak tropical storms in June by using Tropical Storm Allison as a history lesson. We need to pay attention more to historical analogs and possibilities and less every new model run promising bigger and better cyclones then pretending it never showed a hurricane. And the NHC said 20% chances in the 5 day so why was everyone looking for development yesterday or today????

Another person who some mets like to make fun of is Dabuh who often sees what could be, may be and posts cryptic posts showing areas where something may develop way before the GFS or EURO show them. He doesn't pretend to be head of the NHC and he is very much who he is and not afraid to be himself. As a weather community online we are richer for his presence and participation.

Hmnn.....

Oh.....

Hmnn just one frame of the EURO.

Don't sell the farm ....

... just one frame.

But nothing in GOM..

And now it's watching Florida.

Okay...so we watch.

We watch, wait and go on with life

People ask how Dabuh does this?

Pulls tropical rabbits out of his hat?

Inquiring minds want to know...

Again it's important to be yourself. No one else can be you and everyone else can weave "regardless" into their own tropical discussions regardless of the fact that currently nothing is going on but everyone is talking about it so regardless of reality let's repeat what everyone else is saying. Ex Director of the NHC Bill Read was so right when he told me people must come from sheep not monkeys.  I do show models early on because people ask me about the models and because that's the name of the game in 2018. But I take those models with a lot of salt the way I take my margaritas.  If there is one thing Dabuh knows it is the East Coast of Florida as he lives there, surfs there and pays close attention to every sign of trouble or good waves.

So there's your model discussion for the day.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ecmwf-opertc2.cgi?time=2018061300&field=850mb+Vorticity&hour=Animation

GFS shows nada.

I try to share info.

I try to educate on hurricane history.

I try to inform and amuse.

I do my thing.

You don't like my ending...

Make your own ending.

Great advice from an original.

Who makes a soap opera in a video?

The tropics are a soap opera.

The best show on earth.

Reality Show.

Mother Nature does the Tropics.

Stay tuned.

Again be an original!

Don't be a copycat.

Find your own stage.

Watch and learn.

91L is not developing NOW..

 because of strong shear.

Diving ULL.

Shunting convection off... 

Watch it...

...but watch the Bahamas.

East Coast of Florida.

And any other area that bubbles up.

It's June this is how June works.

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter

Join Twitter.

Follow me for faster updates.

Join in the discussion...

You want a long read?
Read Cranky I do... 

He's ALWAYS been an original!!

Ps......

Sting is who he is....

who he has always been.

Unique.

He's a leader not a follower.

Great lyrics.

Awesome stories.

I can relate.