Sebastien.... NHC Forecasts Smooth, Naked Sebastien to Become a Hurricane.

Okay at least we can see our TS from outer space.

Up close it's really attaching to that rope...

...that's gonna pull it up, up and away

Pretty sure different regimes at the NHC could each handle #Sebastian differently. Caught on a rope. Going out to sea. Could put on a show temporarily & it’s forecast to be a #hurricane pic.twitter.com/QW1ln9U5g5

— BobbiStorm (@BobbiStorm) November 21, 2019

Gotta be honest I think it looked better last night.

But it's a strong Tropical Storm.

Forecast to be a hurricane by the NHC.

Official graphics ...

...showing from www.spaghettimodels.com

Almost looks like it wants to tell us something...

...maybe Santa's on his way?

A Santana song is now stuck in my mind.

That's not a yellow butterfly.

It's the wind history of Sebastien.

I'd agree with Josh on this...

...paint dries faster.

It may become a hurricane.

It is a tropical storm.

As Jim Williams said on Twitter...

originated in the tropics.

www.hurricanecity.com

As for me more into shopping for Chanukah.

Debating getting myself an inexpensive present.

But I probably have these purple shades here.

Kind of like me...

Witty, easy going, genuine...

..wise and kind of chilled today.

Watching hearings.

Debating on buying this book.

https://www.amazon.com/Siberian-Curse-Communist-Planners-Russia/dp/0815736452

Debating on what to make for dinner.

Maybe go out... shop for Shabbos.

Sushi? Nah....

Got time to think on it.

By then... 

Sebastien could be a hurricane.

Yeah... this is happening.

I'll update later.

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram.

Mostly weather on Twitter.

Some weather,  make up and "life" on Instagram.

Smooth....

...get it the eye shadow shade..

My mind is an amazing thing... but warped ;)

Reason for reason....

the step in my groove...

Great song...

..gonna dance.

How can ya not dance when you hear Santana?

Do you dance at home when alone?

I do.

Great video... so smooth..

Tropics Tuesday. 94L Westbound. Atlantic Filled with Convection. Fronts Moving. Atmosphere is Dancing. Winter is Coming But It's Not Over Yer. Music ...

94L above.

Every story has two sides.

Below you can see the other side.

High pressure for now to the North.

A saturated environment to the West.

And it's going to add moisture to that environment.

We can pretty much write this off...

I am concerned on this area down the road.

Something could develop.

Something most likely will over time.

So lot's of color moving into EPAC.

Another flash of color further East.

Upper Level Low to it's North.

Tickling it basically.

It giggles. It flares up.

More flash than substance.

But watching it.

Sometimes things don't develop right then and there.

But they interact down the road at the right spot.

Fronts on the move......

Tropics still have potential 

http://weather.unisys.com/sites/default/files/mnt/
webdata/satellite/sat_wv_east_loop-12.gif 

Is this the most perfect view ever of the tropics and parts of the world? It is to me. Beauty is in the eye of the beholder. The ridge to the North pushes down, compresses and stimulates the wave but nothing going to happen now. The energy from 94L will go West then get entrained in that pumped up flow over the SW and into Texas and bring rain to the East Coast. Some drops of DNA barely traceable in an Ancestry Test will rain on someone in the Northeast. Weather and the atmosphere is a visual ballet to me. Like you dancing in the dark going on instinct. Speaking dancing in the dark, this is one of my favorite songs. Music today is golden, we have a great era of music going on currently.

Is the season over?

No... November is coming.

And October may squeeze out another name.

And something along the coast will blow up.

But we aren't sure just what yet.

Surfs up that's for sure.
Texas still getting flooding rains.
Yet the storms have no name.
Though the result remains the same.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf&region=atl&pkg=mslpaNorm

I know everyone wants to see the EURO so there it is....

Stay tuned.

Clues... 

Pieces of a puzzle spread across the wet lawn.

Clues to what happened in the storm last night.

And if one may form next week again.

Stay tuned.

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter

Follow me.. updating in real time all day.

Ps...PLEASE read yesterday's blog...

...if you are interested in weather history.

Hurricane Hazel and Hurricane Matthew.

Are we done with storms along the East Coast this year?

http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/2018/10/invest-94l-in-caribbean-circle-in-carib.htm

Song stuck in my mind for the last day or two. Isn't that annoying when that happens? I figured maybe if I listen it I'll become immune to it... Has a great chorus, that's what does it you know? The chorus hooks you in...  someone taught me that as they used to analyze music the way some of us study meteorology. Then again I just like to dance to a good tune.



See it worked........ listened to Ed Sheeran for a while and nothing else remains in my brain.

Autumn Equinox Coming Soon... Peak of the Season As Always. 4 Systems in the Atlantic Being Watched. Subtropical Kirk? Or Oh What a CV Wave? Leftovers Being Served in West Atlantic.

It's officially autumn tomorrow morning and we have a falling leaves colored pattern in the Atlantic on the NHC Main Page. How fitting. Did you know old time weather lovers would often call Hurricanes Equinox Storms as they seemed to come at the time of the Autumn Equinox. Today's meteorologists call this Peak of the Season. We've come so far and yet as the 3rd week of September approaches you can almost always expect trouble somewhere in the tropics. Mariners knew to try and stay away from those hot spots otherwise their ships tended to go down into Neptune's realm.

It's kind of amazing when you think on it that without satellite imagery or radar they knew by keeping track of the weather and comparing with other like minded weather people that there was a pattern this time of year that led to wild, raging storms that moved up from the tropics to the higher latitudes. There was no The Weather Channel nor were their message boards or social media, but they knew because they watched and studied the weather patterns. And, in the end that is what it is all about a pattern that is repeated over time since time began.

Now days meteorology is all about math, however back in the beginning meteorology was about the simple recording of daily weather patterns in journals over time and studied over time after the fact as they watched to see if the pattern would repeat itself.

Keeping with the color scheme here today...

.. let's look at the red and orange areas.

This area has been given the highest changes...

..in the five day of development.

Earthnull shows this area to have a very broad circulation.

But strong winds and the always popular...

..Subtropical status infamous in 2018.

Hmmnnn.

Could this be Kirk?

Possibly.

Bet Captain Kirk would prefer being a CV Storm.

I don't think Kirk gets a vote on Kirk.

Next we have that blue blob in the bottom right corner.

Not sticking with the color scheme is it.

It rolled off of Africa yesterday.

Blew a lot of people away.

That's one big wave.

Look at it last night.

I went to Spaghetti Models...

...it jerked my eyes away.

Compelled me to stop what I was doing.

And stare.....

 So yeah the Subtropical system is at 70%

First candidate for the name Kirk.

Unless Kirk is cloaked in orange below.

Where is it going?

Westbound for now.

Kind of classic CV track.

It will have to contend with SAL.

Still here deep in September.

Rare but happens.

So does 99L ride low...

...cloaked in SAL.

Or does it ignore SAL.

Such a tropical drama.

Far away.

But people are watching this morning.

Not all waves that look this good develop.

Okay it is kind of developed already.

But can it swim??

I'm in a mood.

Deal with it.

Next we have the West side of the Atlantic.

Given weaker chances of development.

Basically fragments of Florence...

... and 98L that we are pretending isn't.

X Isaac.

Fragments, leftovers.

Or think of them as refurbished?

Never waste good leftovers?

Let's get back to these loopers.

But if 98L develops.

I am so going to the ocean to see it!

Annoyed I didn't get to see Flo the 1st time.

Maybe tomorrow IS another day!!

Keep watching.

Always been persistent.

I think the biggest question is...

...does Invest 99L have legs.

Can it dance?

Leslie? Is that you?

Keep watching.

Awesome beautiful wave.

Waves are beautiful far away.

We can ooh and aww about them now.

But if it gets to our side of the world?

What then?

Think of the intro as the NHC main page 

;)

Stick with it ... it gets better.

In 2018 it seems Anything Goes.

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm

Ps... Stick around. I'll update this afternoon.

On the dancing waves in the Atlantic.

Tropics Wednesday. Invest 91L Not Doing Anything Yet. BOC Bound? Will Energy Transfer to the E Coast of Florida or Florida or Bahamas? Maybe. It's June.. .Watch & Wait. Euro Watching Florida Today? Hmnn Some Thoughts on Why We Shouldn't Live or Die By the Models Especially in June. Being Unique and Who We Are Online...

Tropics Today.

Watching the tropics in June to see if something will or won't develop isn't for the faint of heart. It's especially dangerous to live and die by the models as this time of year due to "feedback issues" the models often produce vigorous tropical storms just to lose them once people take the bait. Simply said the models in June are basically "click bait" and that's why I watch the satellite loops and other forecasting tools to see what I really think will happen rather than click on "you should see the so and so twins today" and spoiler alert clicking on those links never ends well.

That said I do look at the models, but only after carefully examining what exists and contemplating the shear maps, the water temperatures (that change daily sometimes) and low and high pressure patterns. I watch cold fronts that ooze Down South enough to wear jeans vs shorts on a cool June evening out in Raleigh. I watch hurricane history and use many grains of salt when dealing with anything down in the SW Carib that is forecast to develop in early June or late November.

MOST IMPORTANT TAKE AWAY HERE TO REMEMBER.
Never ever rely on or believe in ANY model until the area being investigated has a clear cut, verified center of circulation. And if there are multiple centers vying for control think twice on the model until that one center becomes the real thing. Only with good data from recon and a good starting point do you get a good end result. And, even then models change in real time as the storm itself senses new atmospheric steering currents and conditions that may alter the track or intensity of the storm that no model noticed. The next model run the model will adjust to the storm not the other way around!

To understand who I am and how I think it's worth understanding I studied dance at a young age and cannot stop myself from moving to the beat of a song I love. I studied meteorology in college as to how it relates to the larger political structure of the world as meteorology and it's boring uncle Climo has dictated time and again over and over why one country went to war with another country. Even in the ever changing world in which we live... weather affects everything. If you don't believe me follow Commodities for a while and you will see how weather can make or break fortunes.  So this blog post today is inspired by Ed Sheeran and Sting as we will keep on making the same mistakes as we follow the models refusing to be the leader vs the follower.



A case in point is the word "regardless" was used in official discussion and suddenly every weather person on air or online wove the word regardless into their forecast yesterday for the heavy rain fall Texas may receive regardless of a name or just a large mass of tropical rain moving into Texas. Yeah... how did that work for you all? Yes, with Harvey fresh in everyone's minds millions of people clicked on links wondering if Invest 91L would be the next Harvey like storm. Get a grip gang. And think for yourself a little bit and learn to wait and watch and see what will or won't develop especially this far out.

NHC above.

X marks the spot.

Below... close up map.

Ledge of Honduras.

I don't understand the rush by "pros" to be the first to post the first model run when the EURO follows the GFS and produces a possible storm and then just the way most divas the GFS suddenly leaves the scene of the crime leaving everyone upset and dismayed that the EURO made the same stupid mistake. Since the beginning of recorded history messy blobs of convection have sat down on the ledge of Honduras and shear blows off their convection to the central Caribbean and models dance about as if they are in dress rehearsal and meteorologists follow every frame that the models put out jumping to conclusions. Models do not TALK they infer, they imply and they often lie. If you are going to follow a meteorologist who talks on models make sure they really understand the nuances and are not just repeating the party line regardless of what may actually happen. Models are really not as simple as they look and not for the faint of heart. Always believe in models AFTER a true center has formed.

It's always good to be a leader rather than a follower. Find a few good mets who know how to lead vs follow and know what the heck they are doing vs following the pack. I've had more than a few people ask me how Mike became so big online and especially on Facebook where people wait to see him to do Facebook Live. The reason they do is that they have not been burned by him with bad information and he is the first one to say he could be wrong. He talks on the models, shows.... no teaches people how to use the models and then gives his own thoughts peppered with what the official line is while reminding people the NHC is the bottom line... even if he doesn't agree or see how it will play out. He is very honest and knowledgeable. Yet jealous long time on air types make fun of people like us who are popular online and seem dismayed that people actually enjoy reading a blog or going to a weather website run by someone who didn't get an online meteorology degree from MSU. We are who we are and we don't pretend to not be who we are and I believe people respect that honesty.

Great song...



I didn't write nonstop Tweets using the world "REGARDLESS" yesterday as I'm not going to wax poetic on a storm that hasn't even formed a center before warning people all across the coast of GOM that they need to worry on huge amounts of tropical rain just because everyone else is doing so. Yes, I will say that IF this forms we need to worry on the set up and explain why we watch weak tropical storms in June by using Tropical Storm Allison as a history lesson. We need to pay attention more to historical analogs and possibilities and less every new model run promising bigger and better cyclones then pretending it never showed a hurricane. And the NHC said 20% chances in the 5 day so why was everyone looking for development yesterday or today????

Another person who some mets like to make fun of is Dabuh who often sees what could be, may be and posts cryptic posts showing areas where something may develop way before the GFS or EURO show them. He doesn't pretend to be head of the NHC and he is very much who he is and not afraid to be himself. As a weather community online we are richer for his presence and participation.

Hmnn.....

Oh.....

Hmnn just one frame of the EURO.

Don't sell the farm ....

... just one frame.

But nothing in GOM..

And now it's watching Florida.

Okay...so we watch.

We watch, wait and go on with life

People ask how Dabuh does this?

Pulls tropical rabbits out of his hat?

Inquiring minds want to know...

Again it's important to be yourself. No one else can be you and everyone else can weave "regardless" into their own tropical discussions regardless of the fact that currently nothing is going on but everyone is talking about it so regardless of reality let's repeat what everyone else is saying. Ex Director of the NHC Bill Read was so right when he told me people must come from sheep not monkeys.  I do show models early on because people ask me about the models and because that's the name of the game in 2018. But I take those models with a lot of salt the way I take my margaritas.  If there is one thing Dabuh knows it is the East Coast of Florida as he lives there, surfs there and pays close attention to every sign of trouble or good waves.

So there's your model discussion for the day.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ecmwf-opertc2.cgi?time=2018061300&field=850mb+Vorticity&hour=Animation

GFS shows nada.

I try to share info.

I try to educate on hurricane history.

I try to inform and amuse.

I do my thing.

You don't like my ending...

Make your own ending.

Great advice from an original.

Who makes a soap opera in a video?

The tropics are a soap opera.

The best show on earth.

Reality Show.

Mother Nature does the Tropics.

Stay tuned.

Again be an original!

Don't be a copycat.

Find your own stage.

Watch and learn.

91L is not developing NOW..

 because of strong shear.

Diving ULL.

Shunting convection off... 

Watch it...

...but watch the Bahamas.

East Coast of Florida.

And any other area that bubbles up.

It's June this is how June works.

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter

Join Twitter.

Follow me for faster updates.

Join in the discussion...

You want a long read?
Read Cranky I do... 

He's ALWAYS been an original!!

Ps......

Sting is who he is....

who he has always been.

Unique.

He's a leader not a follower.

Great lyrics.

Awesome stories.

I can relate.

Updated... Invest 93L - Hurricane Wilma... A Look Back - A Look Ahead to Winter. Mother Nature Not Done

2 PM NHC Map

6 PM.
Nothing has changed all that much.
Models hinting at some development.
They still haven't agreed on how much.
Meteorologists disagree.
And the beat goes on in the Caribbean.

Intensity model below:

More track models:

Model for precipitation across South Florida.

Look at those fronts lined up.

I really think I should go to sleep and wake up and start over tomorrow. Everyone is weird today. People can't let go of the pattern that if something forms in the tropics it will be a Major Hurricane slamming into some city not yet destroyed by the last hurricane. Meteorologists are arguing as to whether Invest 93L gets designation... hits Florida, goes into the Bahamas... skims Cuba and misses Florida...goes out to sea or goes up the Eastern Seaboard. When models don't agree and meteorologists bicker it's best to let it go and see what Invest 93L has under it's hood and if and when it develops we can talk about it.

Arctic intrusions and frontal boundaries.

There's a thing going on....

This system feels more like the 1st week of November.

Check out this loop below:

http://www.eldoradocountyweather.com/current/satellite/goeseast-wv.php

Long loop.... watch the fronts.

There's something going on.

What ... we will know soon enough.

A low may form up in the NE near New York or New England and some of this tropical moisture may get sucked into it. That is NOT the same as a strong Hurricane moving north towards landfall. But it does mean nasty weather for some along the Eastern Seaboard in the next week. 

Despite the hype no hurricane is on the weather maps for next week. Could we end up with a Tropical Depression of weak TS over Cuba briefly before falling apart (if he ever gets a name) ... maybe. I wouldn't rule it out, but I wouldn't bet on it either.

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/day0-7loop.html

I'll update tomorrow. Something IS going on but just what isn't exactly clear.

Besos BobbiStorm

Ps... keep reading if you didn't read this morning's blog.

* * *

NHC raises odds in short term.

Lowers odds in long term.

Mike has a link up to the floater page for 93L

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/93L/93L_floater.html

www.spaghettimodels.com

There is window of opportunity for Invest 93L to grab if it wants to spin into a tropical entity and receive the name Philippe. It can still cause much misery and damage without a name and it can do that without a name or if it's energy splits and part gets pulled North by the NEXT front and part backs up into the Epac. That solution is on the table and as it's late October most solutions are on the table. Before the next front pushes down and produces shear and picks up it's tropical moisture it has an opportunity rated at 40% by the NHC over the next 2 to 5 days. Then the door seems to slam shut on a name, yet the tropical moisture remains and rides the front up and out of the Caribbean as if it's on an Amtrak Express Train. 

Models:

Good picture of how this plays out.

That's one hell of a dip.

Mother Nature did a devilish dance this past hurricane season. I'm thinking she's not done dancing and her devilish trick dance moves will extend into this Fall and then into Winter. 

Water Vapor Loop

Look at that dip. It should have a name like a dance step does as it's compelling, impressive and intense. What does this sort of pattern show us really about the coming winter. For one it makes me wonder if this winter will be as intense as the hurricane season was in it's own way.

Watch the Water Vapor Loop.

Yup, that's what amazes me watching the satellite loops with regard to Invest 93L is not the possibility of a named storm but the overall look of the intensity of this week's weather pattern. And, the fact that next week features another set up similar to this one, but even stronger, is compelling from a meteorological point of view. Why you ask?  During this part of the Hurricane Season we begin to see clues as to our next real season that being winter. We wonder on winter and that's a normal fascination as we observe changes happening all around us.  In South Florida the dew points are lower and early morning is a great time to walk, run or just watch the late sunrise this time of year offers. If you work downtown you can go a drop earlier and watch the sunrise over the Bay after getting a Starbucks at Bayside. No I'm not missing Miami as I am there often and will be again soon. Perhaps planning out things I want to do during my next trip.

Miami does not seem to be on Invest 93L's dance card. That could change as rain could get pulled North and then swept away by the approach of the next front. Then the moisture slides up the coast in the form of extreme rain from Cape Kennedy to Cape Hatteras to Cape Cod. The point here is no matter what South Florida gets rain... they get weather sucked up from the tropics and then cooler weather. It's a pattern and this pattern may go on for a while in various ways. Bears watching. Hurricane Season not over until November 30th for a reason.

Speaking of Miami.

And Hurricane Season.

Wilma is in the news today.

Same time of year.

Some hurricane history.

Good news the buoy is back in business.

All spruced up and pretty.

Ready for selfies again :)

It's not the first time it's been repainted.

After Wilma they repainted.

Paint is cheap.

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter

Ps... Speaking of Wilma here is some video that was taken by Jim Williams from Hurricane City showing the movement of the first half of the hurricane, the eye and then the return of the back side of the eye from his Tower Cam.