Updated... Invest 93L - Hurricane Wilma... A Look Back - A Look Ahead to Winter. Mother Nature Not Done

2 PM NHC Map

6 PM.
Nothing has changed all that much.
Models hinting at some development.
They still haven't agreed on how much.
Meteorologists disagree.
And the beat goes on in the Caribbean.

Intensity model below:

More track models:

Model for precipitation across South Florida.

Look at those fronts lined up.

I really think I should go to sleep and wake up and start over tomorrow. Everyone is weird today. People can't let go of the pattern that if something forms in the tropics it will be a Major Hurricane slamming into some city not yet destroyed by the last hurricane. Meteorologists are arguing as to whether Invest 93L gets designation... hits Florida, goes into the Bahamas... skims Cuba and misses Florida...goes out to sea or goes up the Eastern Seaboard. When models don't agree and meteorologists bicker it's best to let it go and see what Invest 93L has under it's hood and if and when it develops we can talk about it.

Arctic intrusions and frontal boundaries.

There's a thing going on....

This system feels more like the 1st week of November.

Check out this loop below:

http://www.eldoradocountyweather.com/current/satellite/goeseast-wv.php

Long loop.... watch the fronts.

There's something going on.

What ... we will know soon enough.

A low may form up in the NE near New York or New England and some of this tropical moisture may get sucked into it. That is NOT the same as a strong Hurricane moving north towards landfall. But it does mean nasty weather for some along the Eastern Seaboard in the next week. 

Despite the hype no hurricane is on the weather maps for next week. Could we end up with a Tropical Depression of weak TS over Cuba briefly before falling apart (if he ever gets a name) ... maybe. I wouldn't rule it out, but I wouldn't bet on it either.

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/day0-7loop.html

I'll update tomorrow. Something IS going on but just what isn't exactly clear.

Besos BobbiStorm

Ps... keep reading if you didn't read this morning's blog.

* * *

NHC raises odds in short term.

Lowers odds in long term.

Mike has a link up to the floater page for 93L

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/93L/93L_floater.html

www.spaghettimodels.com

There is window of opportunity for Invest 93L to grab if it wants to spin into a tropical entity and receive the name Philippe. It can still cause much misery and damage without a name and it can do that without a name or if it's energy splits and part gets pulled North by the NEXT front and part backs up into the Epac. That solution is on the table and as it's late October most solutions are on the table. Before the next front pushes down and produces shear and picks up it's tropical moisture it has an opportunity rated at 40% by the NHC over the next 2 to 5 days. Then the door seems to slam shut on a name, yet the tropical moisture remains and rides the front up and out of the Caribbean as if it's on an Amtrak Express Train. 

Models:

Good picture of how this plays out.

That's one hell of a dip.

Mother Nature did a devilish dance this past hurricane season. I'm thinking she's not done dancing and her devilish trick dance moves will extend into this Fall and then into Winter. 

Water Vapor Loop

Look at that dip. It should have a name like a dance step does as it's compelling, impressive and intense. What does this sort of pattern show us really about the coming winter. For one it makes me wonder if this winter will be as intense as the hurricane season was in it's own way.

Watch the Water Vapor Loop.

Yup, that's what amazes me watching the satellite loops with regard to Invest 93L is not the possibility of a named storm but the overall look of the intensity of this week's weather pattern. And, the fact that next week features another set up similar to this one, but even stronger, is compelling from a meteorological point of view. Why you ask?  During this part of the Hurricane Season we begin to see clues as to our next real season that being winter. We wonder on winter and that's a normal fascination as we observe changes happening all around us.  In South Florida the dew points are lower and early morning is a great time to walk, run or just watch the late sunrise this time of year offers. If you work downtown you can go a drop earlier and watch the sunrise over the Bay after getting a Starbucks at Bayside. No I'm not missing Miami as I am there often and will be again soon. Perhaps planning out things I want to do during my next trip.

Miami does not seem to be on Invest 93L's dance card. That could change as rain could get pulled North and then swept away by the approach of the next front. Then the moisture slides up the coast in the form of extreme rain from Cape Kennedy to Cape Hatteras to Cape Cod. The point here is no matter what South Florida gets rain... they get weather sucked up from the tropics and then cooler weather. It's a pattern and this pattern may go on for a while in various ways. Bears watching. Hurricane Season not over until November 30th for a reason.

Speaking of Miami.

And Hurricane Season.

Wilma is in the news today.

Same time of year.

Some hurricane history.

Good news the buoy is back in business.

All spruced up and pretty.

Ready for selfies again :)

It's not the first time it's been repainted.

After Wilma they repainted.

Paint is cheap.

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter

Ps... Speaking of Wilma here is some video that was taken by Jim Williams from Hurricane City showing the movement of the first half of the hurricane, the eye and then the return of the back side of the eye from his Tower Cam.