Hurricane Harbor: UPDATED!! Yellow Area in Caribbean. Tropical Development? Yes? No? Move Along Nothing to See ....Or Is There? NHC Deals With Fall Out from Hurricane Ophelia Hitting Ireland After they downgraded it ... shhh wasn't really a hurricane ;)

Updated.... 20% in 5 days as of 2 PM.

Who knew?

Anyone reading this blog obviously knew.

Most people knew it was...

"only a matter of time"

Area being watched is visible below.

Obviously we have been watching it.

Watch and wait.

See what happens.

Is timing off by NHC I wonder.

Time will tell.

Area is festering slowly.

Please keep reading if you have not.

Very relevant discussion.

I was at the State Fair when I found out.

I had a good time.

Exhausted.

* * *

This post was written earlier this morning when it was obvious a yellow circle would pop up soon and many expected it to be introduced this morning. The signs are there, models are showing some support and it is within the realm of CLIMO (what is expected for late October) so it was only a matter of time before the NHC officially acknowledged what everyone online has been talking about for the last few days. Also this blog discusses a huge discussion going on in meteorological circles about whether Ophelia should have been named a Hurricane as it raced towards Ireland.

https://www.theverge.com/2017/10/16/16481940/hurricane-ophelia-ireland-meteorology-weather

The NHC sometimes reminds me of that guy.... They will tell you when there is something you want to know ....or not. In truth they put out an excellent product most people do not read that explains everything going on in the tropical basin.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATWDAT
+shtml/221041_MIATWDAT.shtml?

Old school people read the discussion above, however newbies just go online and look for information on the models. The NHC is always stuck trying to catch up and be ahead of the communication curve ... yet always trying to control what information leaks out. Again they are almost always behind the curve for those who want to know can find the info.

And that brings us to Spaghetti Models.

http://spaghettimodels.com/

I'm going to talk about Mike here and his website, but it really applies to many other good weather experts online who share information. Mike always is hones; real and the first to say he is we don't know for sure if this model or that model will verify but "hey this is what the models are showing" and in 2017 when information is readily available everywhere online and in various forms of social media it's best to just tell the truth. Saying there will be NO tropical development in five days is not really the truth as we have seen many times this year when 3 days later a named tropical system popped up out of seemingly nowhere. Those watching online or reading this blog knew there was a chance something could form... Again Mike said "this is the spot to watch this time of year" and he is spot on as always.

The NHC is often caught up in a storm of controversy over their unique governmental, scientific left brain way of saying things. Often their information comes out as controlling or not totally the truth. It's not easy being the NHC as they are held more accountable than Mike or Jim or Levi Cowan. What they offer is information that is based on model analysis, Climo, weather history and a track record of providing information that people searching for information have found to be reliable. Many do not understand how to run the models or what they are suggesting and they want help understanding them so they got to https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/. Many get lost in the hype and want someone who is a bit more cynical, skeptical and they find that expert to separate the hype from the reality of possibilities. As always all of these people, including me, say that the NHC IS the bottom line. However I'll add sometimes that bottom line ends up looking as if it was drawn in chalk vs permanent marker.

And, much comes down to the question "who are you?" and what type of person are you? My mother would stop going to a doctor who started to explain all the problems and possibilities that might happen from some condition she had as it scared the hell out of her. Once I tried to defend her doctor who she had previously loved as just trying to help her and give her all the information. She said and I quote: "I just want him to tell me he's going to fix me and it's going to be okay!" Obviously my mother taught me to call the Weather Bureau when I was little and listen to their recorded weather forecast to get the bottom line. She wanted the facts and she probably would love the five day "nada happening move along" graphic the NHC puts out. However, I have a friend who feels they were burned badly by information from the NHC that they perceive did not totally warn them of the possibilities that would happen in a hurricane that came way closer than the cone suggested and they will never again just go to the NHC page and rely on the cone or their 5 day graphic. They prefer as much as information as possible feeling knowledge is power and if they know something might form and might come near them then they have more knowledge to property prepare their mind, home and loved ones for a tropical problem. Note I said "mind" first as for many who have been without electric for two weeks after a Category 1 Hurricane hit their town or experienced a Flash Flood that obviously was not mentioned in the NWS update ..... they never want to turn their back again on weather ever again. Having the local NC weather guy saying "well, that's the way it goes ... (insert stupid looking grin...) we didn't see that snow storm coming" only cuts it once. After that they change channels and search out someone online who gives them a heads up days in advance that a possible winter event may happen.

As Mike said Climo dictates we watch the SW Caribbean. We watch that area for any consistent convection that lingers to see if there are any low pressure drops and we watch the models to see what they suggest. Again, when models inconsistently show organized storms and then don't on the next model run it's best to put the models up on the shelf. You peak and then go about your life and if and when they consistently show something and there is consistent convection lingering do you really pay attention. Note the two graphics below that are shown on http://spaghettimodels.com/

The graphic above shows something might try and develop.

http://dabuh.com/forecast/ shows this on Twitter.

The truth is I am not going to pretend there is nothing to see, but there is nothing developing today. That is the truth and if conditions improve something could try and develop. If it does develop it would move towards the NE most likely and become a concern for Cuba, South Florida and the Bahamas. As always that could change in real time and nothing could develop for a week or two. But the hurricane season is not over because we want it to be over. It's over when it's over. Plain and simple.

And in truth there are areas that are going to get severe weather today, just as last night OU saw a tornado form in the dark of the night surprising many. It shouldn't have surprised that many people as when you have a frontal boundary showing the signature above on the Water Vapor Loop anything's possible.

Speaking of people who have proven themselves over time as someone who tells the truth and is someone to rely upon .... Bryan Norcross has weighed in on the storm of controversy going on behind the scenes in the meteorological world. Note I agree with him and as far as I am concerned the caveat should be how best to warn the public of the dangers of a weather system that is approaching not worrying on archaic and picayune rules. The term "Hurricane" defines a wind speed as much as it does a certain sort of closed low pressure system in the tropics. In Washington State there is a place known as Hurricane Ridge, because they often have hurricane force winds. When a closed system that can be tracked is racing towards a large population area with sustained hurricane force winds and or gusts of 85 MPH it is not the time to stand on a soap box explaining why it's not a hurricane it just looks and acts like a hurricane. Just prior to Hurricane Sandy making landfall the NHC waxed poetic on scientific meteorological definitions and handed Sandy off to the NWS as one of the biggest Halloween hot potatoes ever seen in the New York area. Long discussions explaining why it does carry high winds and storm surge but it's not really a hurricane anymore as it is transitioning... yeah, right.

About 12 hours before approaching Ireland as a Hurricane the NHC decided to downgrade it to Post Tropical status of whatever new politically correct PT term they got going today and ... that is why Hurricanes hardly ever happen in Ireland or say Spain... because they are officially downgraded before the 85 MPH winds hit and people die from trees falling on them in hurricane conditions. So if a tree falls in a forest according to the NHC the tree didn't fall, didn't make a sound and it's someone else's problem. In a world where students at OU post video of tornadoes on Snapchat and we can watch video of Brittany Spears in concert in Japan.... we obviously know the storm approaching Ireland is a hurricane by any definition that the general public will understand. The job of the NHC, from my perspective, is to inform the PUBLIC of a storm with a closed low and hurricane force winds ...especially if it's approaching land not to play word games or argue semantics.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2017/10/18/if-it-quacks-like-a-hurricane-time-to-rethink-post-tropical-cyclone-terminology/?utm_term=.3427f23f6e72 This article, well written brings up a point that needs addressing. And the NHC needs to understand the reason people go to Spaghetti Models (as the best example here) because they want to see for themselves and hear the different possibilities before they get a notice on their phone that a "Hurricane Watch has been issued for your area" . . .

https://www.facebook.com/TWCBryanNorcross/ If you go to his Facebook Page you can follow along with the comments to Bryan's post yourself and you can weigh in with your thoughts as it is a public forum. It's a new world and perhaps more than a visual that provides more details needs to be put up vs a canned, cartoon like graphic that doesn't really tell the whole story. Perhaps stating "some models show a possible storm forming in an area that climatology favors, but currently nothing is expected to happen for the next 5 days" is better than the blue screen that was great years ago but seems totally out of step when computerized graphics are available to show more details.

As far as I'm concerned it's best to explain to the public what is happening in the language the public uses and understands, otherwise they will stop paying attention to you and go online looking for themselves. There are some people out there who hype things and I'd rather people get the real story from the NHC than those people. And........there are incredibly good mets online who consistently provide great, timely information in advance of severe weather and Cranky is one of those people.

This was put up on October 19th.

Today October 22nd... it verifies.

As the system moves East ...

...it will continue to verify.

To me, the only real caveat a meteorologist should have is to warn the public of what type of weather they will be getting in the next 24 hours and to argue it's not a Hurricane when they are going to get 85 MPH from a system that is hurricane like but "post tropical" is like arguing if a tree falls in the forest Believing your semantic issue is more important than warning the public is just wrong. In reality...it doesn't really matter if there is a sound or not when a tree falls in a forest as........the tree still fell and it may have fallen from hurricane force winds in a post tropical system that has been downgraded and someone may have died prior to hearing the sound or... as it was falling on top of them.

Luckily in 2017 I can go to Spaghetti Models online and check out my favorite people on Twitter and I wonder why Bryan Norcross is not running the Hurricane Season but then knowing him the way I do I know he is too honest to play word games with the general public. Luckily he and the previous director of the NHC are at TWC giving us thoughts in real time with excellent analysis and honesty. The NHC has a problem and they need to wake up and smell the coffee ...as they are losing some of their best people for a reason. And if you want to stay relevant you can't be caught up in irrelevant discussions rather than warn people that trees may fall from 85 MPH winds in Ireland from Hurricane Ophelia.

My old posts re: Ophelia and kudos to Mike for keeping up the last cone on Ophelia for a long time after the NHC pulled the plug. He's honest... that's why people like to shoot the tropical breeze with him on Facebook when a hurricane is threatening.

http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/2017/10/tropical-update-ophelia-across-pond.html

http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/2017/10/tropics-tuesday-remnants-of-92l-follow.html

DaBuh is posting his thoughts...shown below.

I've said mine above.

Have a fantastic Sunday.

May your favorite teams win...

Check back soon on the tropics.