Tropical Update... Ophelia Across the Pond Gone to Find William Shakespeare and Invest 92L ... Future Possibilities in the Tropics

Good link below.

Show's Ophelia and Invest 92L

https://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/TC.html

First let's look at the area of tropical weather in the Atlantic that is most likely to spawn our next Tropical Storm. At 8 AM this area has a 40% chance of developing. The center is not well organized and there are strong upper level that could prohibit it from forming...those winds are apparent on the water vapor loop below. It has a chance of developing, but not a big chance and add into the mix the approaching front. So we are all monitoring it. Nuff said for now.

You can see the front...

Moving down towards Florida.

Going back to NC soon.

My first thought is...

..I need new boots!

Across the pond...

..as they say in England.

Ophelia has arrived.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/10/16/strange-red-sun-phenomenon-seen-across-england-caused-hurricane/

The article attributes the red sky to Saharan Dust sucked up towards Great Britain by the Hurricane. Either way England has experienced not the remnants of the a storm but a still powerful hurricane like storm. Or an Ex-Hurricane... I'm not 100% sure to be honest what it will be when it gets there but Ireland is preparing for hurricane force gusts and asking people not to get hung up over the exact status of Ophelia.  That's wise advice... as it is racing towards them at a forward speed of 44 MPH. Storms at that latitude often travel extremely fast and the forward speed is added to the wind speed in a meteorological computation that translates to extreme danger. Obviously the NHC made it a Post Storm however.... as we saw several times this year when a hurricane has traveled a long distance pushing water and carrying extremely high winds it doesn't just wind down fast because the plug was pulled. The weather dangers and possible misery will be memorable for an area not used to that sort of weather. Yes, they are used to strong storms, but as they will see there will be some differences. Time will tell, but people are being warned to prepare and stay indoors. Like some Shakespearean drama... Ophelia traveled back to the place that made her name famous.  I haven't paid much attention to it with all the wedding drama here. 

As for down the tropical road on our side of the pond...

Though there are some mixed signals, for the most part the next week or so should be quiet. Quiet being relative.... anytime you have a frontal boundary hanging in the Atlantic or Gulf of Mexico you have to watch close in for signs of development. Both of the top models show something forming around or moving towards Florida as a very weak system, far off in the distant future at the end of October. Systems this time of year tend to do that or veer off wildly NE out to sea with diving cold fronts so again...watch those cold fronts. 

GFS forms it below.. moves it NE (weak)

Euro congeals suddenly.

Time will tell.

Speaking of time... time moves on. My brother lost his wife two years ago to a stroke and we greatly missed my sister-in-law's constant presence as her passing was sudden, shocking and to be honest she very much held my large, messy family together. As the children aged she was their aunt and their best friend and she hosted party after party at her house. Her home was their second home as they were growing up and when I got married a few moved in with her to stay in the Miami area while they went to College nearby. She was a best friend to be before my brother met her so... it was a difficult loss for all of us.  Yes, it was a hard time for many of us and yet time does march on and my brother met a woman who he shares many common interests and life goals with  and he got remarried last night in a nice ceremony in Hollywood Florida where they now live. My kids came in, other family members and friends came in as well and the bride's family that lives near by gathered together to celebrate. It was fun. Good to celebrate the happy times together. So that's a wrap as we say in the business. Today we are recuperating, hanging out at my son's house as people head for the airport or breakfast or the beach nearby one last time. I wrote this from bed, still under the covers that are now being shared with various family members who have moved into this bedroom so.... excuse any typos. I need to get dressed and go find some Cafecito (Cuban Coffee) and some breakfast. 

Some of these kids below are mind, others are married into the family or have become adopted as unofficial members or are the relatives of the in-laws and well... time marches on ...and as the saying goes "life goes on" . . . families grow, love expands welcoming new people into the family. The Bride, my new sister-in-law, is holding my granddaughter Charlotte on her lap. 

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm

Ps... Always good to see everyone and party with the Meyer Gang.