UPDATED Invest 90L Tropics Tuesday .. NHC... Yellow Circles. Spaghetti Models. Voices From Twitter. Country Music. King Tide...What is it?
Models
We are at 70% in 5 days now.
8 PM NHC went red.
I want to say I don't do videos so I suggest you watch Levi Cowan give his tropical discussion regarding Invest 90L. tropicaltidbits.com he basically explains what we have been talking about here online while discussing Invest 90L. As I said this morning what starts in Colombia doesn't stay in Colombia as it moves up into the SW Caribbean. It incubates there in the Gulf of Mosquitos just to the North of Panama.
In the morning when the good first morning visible imagery comes in and we can get recon into the area to get better model ... or let's say more reliable models we will know more. It's obvious the NHC may put up a Potential Tropical Cyclone Warning IF they feel it's needed. It's obvious above that a high pressure area is set up in the Atlantic East of Florida shutting down the usual track for October storms. A small Upper Level Low is noticeable above moving into the Pacific. It's beginning to get that look that moisture wants to congeal and evacuate energy. Upper Level Low in this case is helping to energize it and the spin has begun. This shows even better in the floater shown below. Compare and contrast it to the one above.
If a center forms.
It moves North.
If it develops (and it should)
It has very warm water.
Models are being run.
Models show possible hurricane.
They do a great job below.
Great App.
They are putting out alert for GOM.
Key West NWS thoughts.
Key West is in the Cross Hairs...
From the video
There is a N part of this trough.
One below and one above.
It's complicated.
Invest 90L
In the Gulf of Mosquitos.
Hey it is what it is..
A sort of incubation area...
Invest 90L
Cradled down in the SW Caribbean.
Models.......
Adding in information as models run.
You can see the spin... it's obvious.
Why we are now at 60% orange.
Waiting to see what they do at 8 PM.
Check back later.
Old info is below.
Leaving it so you can see...
...how we got to 60%.
In just 6 hours.
outdated info in italics..
..important info in bold!
Check back after 8 PM
Thanks!
***
Note both NHC maps.
The 2 Day.
The 5 Day.
Cheat sheat.. use Mike's Weather Page ;)
Listening to Mike talk on Facebook Live.
Really can listen to him talk forever.
He was discussing the CMC model.
A few models showed small Low over Florida.
Which is why we have a small yellow X over Florida.
2 Day Image from NHC above.
First let's discuss the graphics put out by the NHC with regard to possible development over the next five days. They update every six hours and aside from the yellow area of development shell game that gets posted there is a discussion that you can read and it gives you a good overall view of the Tropical Atlantic. It's a "now" world and people watching regularly notice the odd things that happen in the still of the night (or afternoon) so it does make you go "huh" when they change the graphic fast as if no one was watching. Dabuh is always watching... wave watchers are always watching more carefully than others. The Atlantic is his domain in ways and he notices the small things.
Discussion:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATWDAT.shtml
Now this may seem concerning.
In reality the big problem is the King Tide.
King Tide is always a problem.
Every year.
King Tide is always a problem.
Every year.
I was born and raised in Miami and we have had King Tides forever they are not some new term we bandy about such as "fire hose" in the media. I remember trying to get to work decades ago and there was flooding on my street, we had to avoid the usual areas that flood and that year there was a weak tropical system off the coast that the media blamed for the King Tide being stronger than usual.
Miami and the rest of South Florida knows about this without a small yellow circle hovering over the peninsular but it seems the NHC decided to put a yellow X there with "no chances of development" and have to tell you it usually rains a lot this time of year in South Florida. That's a week forecast of possible thunderstorms, showers and heavy rain that coincides with the King Tide that ramps up the onshore flooding problem. Expect possible dramatic video from Miami or Florida; don't worry life goes on there.
Note images from Channel 7 aka WSVN Weather below. They are on top of it.
And this is a FLORIDA issue.
Not just Miami issue.
NWS JAX on top of it.
KING TIDES.
From Carolinas to Texas..
KING TIDES.
From Carolinas to Texas..
Actually even GOM cities deal with it.
King Tide.. Global Tidal Event.
So let's look at this satellite image below.
That's one healthy wave in the Atlantic.
Healthy convection in the Caribbean.
Oh look...the 5 day image from NHC.
Oh look... the 5 Day.
Again ... please put it on one page.
So we look into the Caribbean.
Yes we are all watching...
...waiting.
As I've been saying 10/6 10/7 pay attention!
Oh look... the 5 Day.
Again ... please put it on one page.
So we look into the Caribbean.
Yes we are all watching...
...waiting.
As I've been saying 10/6 10/7 pay attention!
There is a huge wave in the MDR.
Directly above that word :)
Main Development Region.
MDR been quiet lately.
There are two issues here.
One is in SW Carib.
One could be in the Atlantic.
Often what happens in the MDR doesn't stay in the MDR. Waves that fight shear make it somewhere else where they find friendlier conditions to develop. That much color in the tropics that has persisted the last few days shouldn't be ignored. Then you have a weak, dead frontal boundary; never ignore a dangling frontal boundary floating about in tropical waters. Next you have moisture coming off a Colombia that works it's way North into the Caribbean Sea and like the wave in the MDR what starts in Colombia doesn't stay in Colombia but develops far away to the North. Again... role of tropical moisture is to move North towards the poles. In a few days an area near the Yucatan (give or take a few hundred miles) will be shaded in a yellow then orange circle that could develop in 5 or 6 days. Long range models that made no sense last week are beginning to make more sense this morning.
One ULL departs West into Mexico.
Another is in the Atlantic near the Islands.
Huge wave moving West.
Dabuh spoke about this ...
All of these areas of convection will try to thread their way through the Basin, fighting Upper Level Lows and trying to get where they need to go to stay alive.
NHC discussion regarding these waves.
So where do we stand this Tuesday morning? Tom Petty is dead at age 66 leaving his fans lost in a sea of grief and musical memories.
The link below is for a 5 day view of the tropics; you can watch all the areas of interest that did not develop and you can see why in one beautiful, colorful water vapor loop.
http://www.eldoradocountyweather.com/current/satellite/goeseast-wv.php
Above is the last frame in the loop above.
It is where we are today.
I will update this blog later today.
I will do MODELS.
Possibilities for Nate down the road.
Today I want to say thank you.
To Country Music actually.
Here in Raleigh most rock bands are a bit of Southern Rock and a bit of Country. Every musical festival both small or large usually ends with people singing God Bless America. It's moving, always makes you feel good. Makes me feel good. In Vegas an hour before the shooting everyone sang God Bless America. Humbling to watch and realize everything suddenly changed but we still sing God Bless America.
A few days ago Brad Aldean Tweeted this.
This IS Country Music.
Working together with their fans.
A concert for Hurricane Victims.
And there are a lot of Hurricane Victims.
Again you can always prepare for a hurricane.
Random violence not so easy.
I'll update on the models later.
Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter
Ps.. Always watch the tail end of fronts dead in the water.
And stubborn areas of convection.
posted by BobbiStorm @ 6:32 AM
0 Comments:
Post a Comment
<< Home