UPDATED -- Invest 99L Gets a Friend. New Yellow X in Carib.. Wave I Wrote About Yesterday. But the Real Show is Further South in a Week or So. Models... Nate Ophelia Currently In Hiding While Maria and Lee Leave the Scene.

2 PM.
Same...Same.
More of the same.

It's just one of those watch and wait set ups and again if it didn't have a designation as an Invest no one would think of it as anything more than some rain moving up from the Caribbean. That does not negate it could cause a mess for some places in the short term and down the road it could form into more. We are monitoring it... investigating the possibilities. It's that simple.

Again my concern is later in the week as in NEXT week. Something to think on and watch what evolves out of the Caribbean and Mike put this up. It shows what we are all watching and wondering on and it really isn't 99L near Florida currently.  Nothing has changed other wise... other than convection is still oozing North towards Florida. The loop below shows where the strongest convection is... South of Cuba, it keeps reforming after oozing North. To the right there is the area with the yellow X. Both being sheared for now but that could change.......... stay tuned.

It's the holiday of Yom Kippur tonight.
People have a custom to give charity.
I gave here...

https://chabadprcom.clhosting.org/templates/articlecco_cdo/aid/3794756/lang/en

There is so much devastation.
So much kindness.
Love and respect....
..sacrifice by many trying to help.
This will take months...
Years... to rebuild Puerto Rico.

It's a good site and they have been working nonstop since the hurricane to provide emotional support, as well as distributing whatever they have to people in need.

Really we are so blessed we have so much.

We have a roof over our head.

Electric.

Phones to talk to our loved ones.

Water, food... 

...please give as you can.

https://chabadprcom.clhosting.org/templates/articlecco_cdo/aid/3794756/lang/en

Please look below at this image.

Notice the long dark trench.

West of Lee down into the Islands.

That is where the ULL formed.

Updated put in motion today.

Lee pulls away... 

Nothing much going on.

As I said yesterday.

Maria and Lee need to leave.

Pressures need to lower.

You can't just have convection.

Wave slowly moves away from ULL.. 

Hot water.

Not much developing.

Convection moving up towards Florida.

Keep watching.

I'll update after the models all finish running.

Be back in a bit.

Keep reading if you did not already.

* * *

Yesterday's orange X.

Invest 99L

Now at 40% 2-5 days.

Rain for Florida... not good.

Oh look... a new X.

Remember I spoke on the tropical wave?

Rain on the way to the Islands... not good.

Yesterday in the blog I wrote about needing to wait until the west bound tropical wave moves into the Caribbean providing the necessary ingredient to this soup for it to turn into something more than just ingredients thrown into a in a soup pot with some water. Even when you turn the heat on without the proper spices (salt and pepper) it doesn't quite have a real taste... it's just vegetable enhanced warm water. Waves tend to light the powder keg often in set ups such as this and then sometimes still very little happens. Again, you have to let it cook.... you don't need to stare at it constantly but it needs time. So now we have the wave I spoke of yesterday highlighted with a low yellow 20% chance in 5 days. In truth it will be a while before we see where if anything this turns into something. I've said before systems like this that go hybrid often have multiple centers and eventually one takes over. Yesterday the NHC was going with models that showed something would develop on the NE coast of Florida and today they are back to the scenario of possibly off the West Florida coast in the Eastern Gulf of Mexico. Not sure who will be their next dancer partner tomorrow but it's a watch and wait in a stalkerish kind of way where we let the system develop (or not) on it's own. Models are not always useful with set ups such as this one. 

So see the picture below.

You know those cakes people make?

The "Reveal Cake"

Shows the baby's sex....

It's a thing now. 

Very popular.

Cut the cake.

Frosting is a color...

Pink.. it's a girl!

Sadly there is no reveal cake for the NHC.

They have to watch and wait...

..analyze models.

Multiple satellite images.

So let's play NHC today!!

Ever wonder why there are so many floater loops?

The loop above shows you dark colors S of Cuba.

High cloud tops down below.

Continually moving N.

Note the Upper Level Low more visible below.

Water Vapor Loop shows the invisible.

ULL enhances the convection.

But it also shears the system.

 Below East of Tampa.

Spinning area... 

1 part ULL .. 1 part 99L

ULL sucking the moisture North.

Less visible below.

But keep watching the ULL.

Now keep watching the area W of Key West.

I know also something E of Florida.

Try to focus on the Keys.

(I cheated I cut an image vs a loop)

Today we are watching the Western side.
North of strongest Convection.
East of ULL
Mike will be doing Facebook Lives..
IF this develops.

Speaking of Mike...
Here's the Spaghetti Models
99L

A loop shown on Mike's page (thanks)

As I said yesterday this is a wide area of convection with many areas that could develop into some sort of quasi tropical storm, hybrid as the cold front descends down towards Florida (very early for Florida to get a real cold front) and tropical moisture moves North and in addition you have at least 3 Upper Level Lows spinning about that make the area sort of more like chopping atmospheric waters not totally favorable for tropical development deserving of a name. Again in a week or so when all the interference left behind from Maria and Lee as well as the prominent, stubborn ULL departs the scene. There are STILL high surf advisories for the East Coast even though Maria has made her move towards finally hooking up with Lee and going out to sea. What we have below is a tropical world in transition from the hurricanes of September and the October named storms that will soon enough get their name and their fame in this extremely busy 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season.

ULL forms South of Lee.

ULL in the GOM

Small ULL S of Maria

The two still images below show this better but please they go back up and watch the water vapor loop. The deep red colored trench (dry air) between Maria and Lee digs South into the Caribbean. It enhances the wave for now but does not allow it to develop just yet. In the Gulf of Mexico there is another deep orange area of high pressure associated with the back side of the ULL that enhances convection but creates diving shear not conducive for tropical development.  South of Maria there is another ULL trying to form. ULL stands for Upper Level Low for those who do not know and are new to this blog... they are fun to watch, they spin like hurricanes but they are not and they often become steering factors when a storm has formed and yet keep a storm from totally forming if a storm has not yet formed. The one in the Eastern Gulf of Mexico has ruled the scene for weeks and was a player in the retrograde motion of previous tropical systems in the short term. They are interesting features, fun to watch as they are fluid and deepen, close off and move about sometimes; real players in the whole greater process of tropical development.

Close up look below.

North of the new Yellow X.

Another water vapor loop.

Down between Hispaniola and PR

ULL

Hasn't finished diving ..

The one in the Eastern GOM...

..hasn't finished diving yet.

So now you ask "so where does 99L form and what does this mean?" It means 99L may not form in the near term though it could come together tomorrow or Saturday if one area takes over and develops close in ... and that's why we call it "home grown" and the reason the NHC elevated this area to an Invest as it's nearness to land makes it a compelling ...possible problem.  

Ever go out with some guy when you were young that everyone told you was perfect for you as you had much in common and he has so much potential. You know the guy most likely to be whatever you think is all that when he is grown up.  Good looks, gets good grades and is involved with all sorts of activities and yet there is no real chemistry and there is no real "there" for you despite what everyone says you just don't feel it? There's a city that will remain nameless as someone here hates when I bitch about it... well on paper it's a great place to live. It has many of the things I would need... kind of in the South, has lots of kosher stores, restaurants, near the water, on I95, airports, Amtrak and even the football team wears my colors. It's a really great place on paper and then you go there... spend a few days and you can't wait to leave. I keep going back... even cost of living is lower than many areas... I've got friends who love it there and yet... it's grimy, gritty and it just doesn't call your name. Sometimes areas of interest in the tropics known now as Invests are like that...   They are merely areas of potential and often when close to land the NHC throws them a bone and gives them a designation to best warn the general population of a potential problem. So you can't rule out development around Florida but it is basically more rain and rain that Florida (and Puerto Rico) does not need. 

There's a song from the musical "A Chorus Line" that is running through my mind while I watch these loops and stare at models and it's called "Nothing" and it's worth listening to.. Someone taped it live... going with the "stalkerish" feel to today's blog discussion.

Yeah... currently I feel nothing. But even nothing can cause misery to some and even a weak Invest or Tropical Depression dropping incessant rain drops more misery on those trying to get back to normal. So let's keep watching the tropics as it is one of the busiest hurricane seasons in history. And again I'm more worried on what comes out of the Caribbean possibly in about a week's time. 

The GFS seems something every other day in a different place. Shows possible development in the E GOM then shows a small swirl south of Nola and then well you get the idea... smells more than the Euro that basically smells nothing. The NAM model still smells something.

It's not the EURO or GFS

But it's something.

You can see the convergence below.

Or fronts, lows near FL GA line.

Cold fronts don't really hang in all the way thru FL in late September.

Further out...next week.

The GFS sees some thingS

2 systems.

10/07/17 below.

Sunday 10/08/17 

SomethingS stronger

Maybe (10 days out always iffy)

Something to worry on... 

...might not happen but a real concern.

Euro doesn't go overboard.

10/8/17

Maybe.

I'll update later this afternoon.

I'll update with more model discussion.

And again.

Later in October climo shows it's face.

Remember when Wilma rode a front into FL?

That worries me more than 99L today.

IF that area persists.... 

....that's my bigger concern.

Keep watching.

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter

Faster updates in real time on Twitter.

I'll update later today on the blog.

Ps... In drama when I was a little girl I had to be an owl once. I mean really WHO cares? The tree was the star... no one really cared about the owl, the bird or the butterflies... I tried really hard to care and say "whoooo" with emotion but really........ who cared? I didn't even want to be a tree... I did want to be a flapper but that was a different production. Give me a short skirt,  a cute hair style and some beads that hang just right and then I felt something...