TD 17 Forms... Forecast to be TS Ophelia in the Distant Atlantic. A Look Back At Nate... A Look Ahead to Philippe

Close up of those winds shown below.

Tropical Depression 17 formed early this morning in the distant Atlantic. It is forecast to become a Tropical Storm in the near future was shear is relatively low and waters marginally warm enough. It could become a problem for the Azore Islands that were affected by TS Gaston last year.

http://www.hurricanecity.com/city/azores.htm

 The basic discussion is below and the NHC explains why they upgraded the area that they had been highlighting in red to designated status.

Dvorak Image below.

Cone...

Some have asked why anyone cares...  Seriously the NHC does more than warn New Orleans and Miami of incoming tropical threats. The Azores have historically been a strategic part of our Armed Forces as well as a beautiful travel destination. I know they are out there far away and well for once a cone doesn't have an expensive tourist destination or the 4th largest population center in it's path. Seems the name Ophelia will be around for another run on the hurricane name list.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Forces_Azores

https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/po.html

(A great resource should you ever need to get a large plane somewhere filled with ... anything)

Typical travel piece by Huffington Post but it does show the beauty of the Azores.

https://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/azores-islands-visit-best-kept-

secrets_us_586fe607e4b099cdb0fd05ae

I want to be clear though because there has been some confusion online and people have asked me if TD17 was the area of convection closer to Florida vs the one closer to Africa.

Is there something to wonder on?

The image below says yes...

Look at the loop below.

It shows the wide view.

There is an area spinning East of Florida.

That is NOT TD 17

Note discussion from Crown Weather.

http://crownweather.com/

There has been model discussion...

...or more model innuendo concerning that area.

For now NHC is ignoring it.

Private meteorologists do their own thing.

One reason I show the wide view often.

A good site to use is below.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/Basin_Atlantic.html

I'll update on TD 17 at the top IF...

...NHC upgrades it.

Looking back at Nate....

Tropical Depression Nate kept causing destruction yesterday as a TD way after making landfall. After slamming into the Gulf Coast it decided to do the Appalachian Trail and it's rain rode up through Georgia, South Carolina and North Carolina inland along the spine of the mountains. It's currently moving up the coast towards the Mid Atlantic and beyond. It came along ways from the Southwest Caribbean.

Yeah... rain and snow.

Sounds like a song.

I'm not singing today...

Yes, there was flooding in low lying areas that are prone to flooding during storms along the Gulf of Mexico, casinos built at the water's edge flooded. Spartanburg South Carolina had a tornado sited on the ground going NNE towards many small towns, hamlets and neighborhoods not used to seeing Tornadoes yet a large mess of weather moving in tandem with a frontal boundary is prone to spin up tornadoes far from landfall. Then the tornadoes moved up the road into North Carolina. Weather doing the Appalachian Trail is never kind.

I'm not saying Nate was a no show but all in all other than some roads temporarily closed, some areas with minor flooding and some sailboats tossed onto land it was nothing compared to what it was feared it would be. In Central America Nate was responsible for at least 38 deaths at least from areas where mudslides and flash floods as Nate pulled together and moved towards the Gulf Coast. There's more details in the article below. Luckily Nate never became a Category 2 and the West side of the storm basically disappeared as the right side slammed into parts of Mississippi, Alabama and the Florida Panhandle. Louisiana all in all got lucky this time. The area from Gulfport to Pensacola dealt with storm surge, strong winds in bands that pumped up severe weather from the warm, volatile moist air.

Another area affected by Nate was Dauphin Island...It's a beautiful part of the coast worth visiting if being near the water is your thing. The roads can flood from storms and homes are often built high up away from the ground. It has a rich hurricane history. It's seen storms and pirates way worse than Nate.

http://www.al.com/news/mobile/index.ssf/2017/06/hurricanes_that_alabama_will_n.html

A look back at Nate.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Nate_(2017)

Close up.

Note location of casino flooding.

At the tip of land...

Wider view above.

All in all it could have been much worse.

It's such a pretty world from far away.

It's pretty up close too if you are in the right place.

What does it mean to be in the right place?

A place you love?

...with someone you love??

A place that inspires you???

What do you love?

Mountains?

Weather?

Oceans?

Snow?

Tropical Rainforests?

A penthouse view?

Find your place in the world.

And enjoy it.

Some enjoy chasing storms.....

No hurricanes are threatening in the Atlantic today. Sounds like a win win ... unless you are a storm chaser ;) Can't believe everyone chased Nate. It's been that sort of year. NINE consecutive hurricanes in 2017. You thought we were kidding when we said it would be busy? 

@weatherbryan

Follow him on Twitter....

..and you can see them spin.

So next names up...

Will Philippe be sneaky?

Will Rina form in the Caribbean?

Sean could form close in.

And how about Vinnie... Vince. 

Could we get to W?

Stay tuned.

As for Nate... 

His moisture is still falling.

The sun rises quietly every day somewhere... everywhere. Meteorologists wait for that first visual image of a new distant tropical entity to begin their day. I have a friend who reminds me the sun always rises and the sun always sets. Some people wake up early before the sun rises to catch a sunset... and others hang out somewhere watching that same sun set. Which person are you? I'm that person who isn't sure where I will be tonight when the sunsets or more specifically where I'll be when the sun comes up. There are a few possibilities, depends on what time we leave and when we decide to stop driving. Yup... on the road again. I really need a small studio apartment in South Florida over looking the water where I can leave half of my clothes so when I hit the road I just stop and get a Starbucks and know it's all there I don't have to unpack...  It's gonna be that kind of year as my family is on overdrive when it comes to making weddings, babies and well doing what you got to do and enjoying life. My brother who lost his wife 2 years ago is getting remarried this coming weekend. As a good weather friend always says... life goes on. 

I'll be posting from the road.

Nope not chasing hurricanes this trip.

But.... will a home grown storm chase me?

Maybe.

People be watching long range model runs.

Possible.

Keep watching...

Stay tuned...

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter

Ps... You know I get a lot of good life advice from my weather friends online. I'm talking real life advice not about whether this model or that model will verify. I once moved into a house based on advice from a storm chaser friend (good house) and trust me every storm chaser wants to chase a storm but they want a nice, strong home to come home to....   may y'all have a good, good time cause it's party time again.

TD16 (NATE) Forms in the SW Caribbean .. Euro & GFS split as always.

TD 16 Forms.

Note the earliest arrival of winds.

Remember this changes in real time.

I feel as if that is more valuable than the cone just now.

To be honest no one has asked me when the Yucatan is going to get the storm but everyone wants to know when their town may see Nate. From Miami to Tampa to New Orleans everyone is wondering. This really is your guide for when the WEATHER...the WIND.. may arrive vs the exact location of the eye which will be pinned down in real time. Every six hours the NHC updates this product shown above so please check it often. The link for the NHC is http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ Currently the models disagree on timing, intensity and track. What else is new ... right? 

The GFS takes it more to the left.

The EURO more to the right.

Climo is on the side of the EURO.

Time will tell.

The Euro keeps it over water.

Through the Yucatan channel.

Currently shows a landfall in Florida.

This will most likely change.

I'm showing you Wednesday afternoon.

Then there's the GFS.

Inches closer to the Yucatan.

Shows land interaction.

Takes it further West.

The truth lies somewhere in between.

I'm going to be offline until Saturday evening when I will give a full update and we will know what really happened.  I do this every year, new comers here to this site may not know that. So I am providing a link to why I am offline.  What's kind of odd for me is that this happened with Hurricane Wilma when it was forming down near what should be Nate.  Models did not show a strong hurricane, then it under went rapid intensification that was so fast it became historic. I'm NOT saying this will happen with Nate but it's worth remembering what could happen in this are SHOULD the center of Nate develop into a well stacked center.  

http://www.chabad.org/library/article_cdo/aid/4126/jewish/Sukkot.htm 

Climo really shows a storm that forms in this region going right  more than left, but there are always exceptions. I like to point out people you should follow online and one of them is below. I will be offline but Mike will be doing Facebook Live and there are many great voices on Twitter. What he is showing below is history and the focus on what the trend will be over time. As models pull one way or another the trend begins to set in, the dye usually becomes cast.

Mike showed a Tweet from Brad Panovich, he is one of my favorite mets. Worth going on Twitter to follow great meteorologists who don't live and work in your area. In 2017 we don't need to be limited by things that we once were... 

Shear is lessening.

Not great news.

It's not about today.

It's about tomorrow.

It's about how the storm develops.

A well stacked storm...

...can rapidly intensify.

Land interaction can be a problem.

The questions are shown below.

To be honest.. if this develops as other storms this year have done recently and shear begins to lessen ahead of in it's path there is no reason not to expect the current models to be coming in on the low side for intensification.  Will this really be a fast mover? Forward speed is important and if it speeds up that changes everything, if it slows down that changes everything.

http://www.hurricanecity.com/ is a great site to follow while I am offline as well as the other's shown above.

Earlier today I mentioned Larry Cosgrove on Facebook and Nick in Mississippi. They are both good to follow.

https://www.facebook.com/WDAMStorms/

https://www.facebook.com/larry.cosgrove

These people go above and beyond taking time out to update you on information they either can't show in a 2 minute sound bite on air or as retired meteorologists. They along with the NHC provide you with the best information you can find far in advance of landfall. 

Now let's look at the storm itself. I love these loops. I will be offline doing my thing, but they will update in real time. 

Floater

Here's one loop.

Note the system by South Florida.

Waves on South Beach look like OBX today.

That's not normal.

It should be watched carefully...

It may not "develop" 

It's causing crazy weather ...

Weather IS what it is ALL about..

Down in the Caribbean... Nate/90L

Now in the GOM...

Water vapor loop

Lastly a great loop.

Watch for when it starts to roll.

So... I'll leave you here.. Thanks for your patience. I'll be back and online often as soon as the holiday is over and by then we should be knee deep in watches, warnings and a more clear picture of just where this storm will go. And again the 2017 season goes on and on... even when you least expect it!

Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter

UPDATED TD SIXTEEN AT 11 AMNate Forming in the SW Caribbean... Strong Weather Moving into FL From the East. Tropics Active Again.

TD 16

Quick update.

Obviously the cone follows the models.

The models follow the movement of TD 16

I'll update the blog after the 5 PM advisory from the NHC with new model information. Sorry, had a bad migraine today, and just kicking it finally. It's less important to see the first cone then to watch the ongoing pattern...the trend in future cones. Does it continue to move North...does it bend right closer to Florida (as climo usually dictates) or does it do something odd and random and pull to the left? So the first cone is good, recon information is good but in the end it's important how it evolves. I'll update after the 5 PM package. Newest models so far are shown below.

Note the Red X by Florida going from yellow to red is odd in that the odds are kept low for development. Yes we see it. We feel it. Weather has been crazy along the Florida coast but why go red? Maybe time will tell.

As I said earlier you don't need recon to classify this and put out information or possibly a PTC16 watch or just a regular old TD 16 Advisory. Time will tell. I'm going to the chiropractor and shopping. I'll update from the road in real time and give more information here as well. @bobbistorm on Twitter.

Close up and the wider view below.

2 points I want to make here.
One is this is a closed off system.
Ascat pass also shows that.

2017 we live in a very fluid world.
In real time.
Earth Null below.
Looks better every time I check there.

And tail end of a dead frontal boundary.

The Yellow X low chances.

90L aka NATE forecast to move fast.

There is a twist on imagery now  ...

multiple things going on.

Many intangibles.

Dry air.

ULL.

Twist.

Weather at the surface.

Very complex.

Far away from 90L down below.

I'll tell you how my life works. I wake up and check what time it is and immediately check the tropics on my phone.  I have a son who landed in South Florida with his family for the Sukkos holiday, a daughter who is feeding me  news links about Las Vegas and my youngest son is sending me early morning video from downtown Miami where it looks as if there is a mini hurricane going on today. We get so much information thrown at us from the moment we wake up.  Okay I checked TWC to see what Cantore was saying and if the powers that be have given Invest 90L a 110% chance of developing while they wait for the first morning visible and recon to go into the far away system. Oh..and I check out what Mike has to say... of course. My take away being "still 90L

I don't have to show the 90% cone...

..as Mike posted it with the models.

He is so incredibly fluid.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=5

There is an area in the SW Caribbean that is being monitored for upgrade in the short term to a named tropical system ... it's name would be Nate. It's a complex tropical world today in the Atlantic as a rapidly developing Nate is in wait to move further to the North towards the Gulf of Mexico while a strong onshore flow is slamming the East Coast with high winds and a large area along the coast is currently under Small Craft Warnings.

Models show a pull to the North and then some of the models diverge. In the same way that the investigators in Las Vegas try to unravel the "why" behind the horrific massacre of Americans at a Country Western Concert earlier this week.... tropical investigators are once again trying to pull apart the numerous models along with watching the area itself to figure out which of these models is most likely to happen. You know those shows NCSI New Orleans that try post fact to figure out how someone died? Meteorologists are investigators also yet they try to figure out what will happen and at the time time they try to figure out what will happen after that to give the best heads up and warnings they can to the people they serve. Some systems form and it's extremely easy to see where they are going to go as they are trapped under a strong high westbound and other areas we know will pull North towards the poles but...then what? See the European ensemble below. It spits out every possibility that the computer sees possible. In theory all those tracks are possible, yet the storm will only take one.

Not so easy.

Not so glamorous.

There are no TV shows...

Why I don't know.

 Miami is as sexy a city as it gets...

https://www.facebook.com/larry.cosgrove

I say this all the time so I am saying it again. Larry Cosgrove is one of the best meteorologists I've known and I know many......   He has a site up on Facebook and you can subscribe to his free emails he sends out on the weekend that cover short term, medium and long range forecasts as well as general weather information. He has a great grasp of geography on a global level and the meteorology that goes hand in hand with what is evolving in any one place at any one time. When he is concerned it amps up my concern greatly and he IS concerned this morning about Nate.

So we start here from far away looking down at Planet Earth (our hemisphere in particular) and we can see a small round circle in the Southwest Caribbean. If you click on the above image you'll see it ... as it is currently small. A beautiful planet with it's atmosphere always fluid like the fresh breeze on Biscayne Bay in South Florida. Close up we can see the area that should soon be Nate and the strong onshore flow moving towards South Florida.

Look at those close together green lines.

Down below, small closed off circle.

This area is the area that will be dealing with Nate.

One way or the other.

From Nola to Miami people will be watching Nate.

But people along the whole GOM will be watching.

Until the NHC can narrow down the exact track.

https://www.facebook.com/WDAMStorms/

Another very good met I watch.

A friend turned me on to his forecasts.

He talks long... 

...like I write long.

You get a lot of good information.

One of the images I screen shot is below.

He's good. I suggest you follow him.

Even if you live in Florida not Mississippi.

So you wonder why we all read and follow and share information with other meteorologists so often online and the reason we do is there are many good thoughts out there and as is our nature we all specialize in one thing and we learn from each other. We add in other things, one thing about a good meteorologist is that we stay on top of the new trends and blend them with the old, solid study of the climate and meteorology. Each system is different yet commonalities exist. I hate seeing a system this time of year that is forecast to move up towards the Gulf of Mexico and or Florida as it's so deja vu of Wilma. This whole year has been one long flashback to that year except it's 2017 not 2005. Let's see how far we get into the alphabet this year soon enough.  Nate is NOT Wilma, but it's forming in a similar area and frontal boundaries are moving down into the South so it's hard not to go there. One thing that made Wilma ...Wilma... was the RI dance it did down near Mexico when it went wildly strong the way MANY hurricanes have done this year ... so it's hard to totally ignore that. The track may be different and there may be mitigating factors that hold it back from such intensification but there are also commonalities.

Right now it's just forming.

Pulling together faster than expected.

I'll be updating live throughout the day.

It's a very fluid set up.

Much going on.

BobbiStorm's Bottom Line.

Mobile Area really needs to watch.

Give or take 100 miles E/W

NW Florida.

BUT a track close to FL....

...brings WEATHER over FL and the Keys.

Stay tuned.

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter

Ps... Map up on Navy Site.

Say it all. NRL.

Ps... I caught the tail end of a segment on Fox News with Geraldo Riveria. I missed the interview while switching channels back and forth for news on Las Vegas but.....I heard him say that the electric company was "corruptly managed" in Puerto Rico before the Hurricane and the equipment was old and not well maintained. I suppose they will rebuild a better grid. Wow...where did I hear that before? Oh... right in South Florida after we lost electric in Miami from Katrina and Wilma.