A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!
Monday, October 07, 2019
2 Yellow Circles... 1 Orange. No Tropical Named Storm... Not Yet. Coastal Storm Forming in Real Time. Messy Week for Ships At Sea... Beach Erosion & a Possible October Surprise.
I told one of my forever friends online that I really think the NHC pulled the plug on the Yucatan Yellow Area that was forecast to form to the left so that they could reintroduce it quietly again having it form to the right; because I always thought if anything was going to come of it ...it would head NE not NW. I discount models when they make no sense and watch the flow, the pattern and the water vapor loop so now an area that was near the Yucatan moved up across Cuba and is slamming parts of Florida with so much rain that even Dabuh complained....
5 PM. Karen Demoted to TD. Tho Forecast to be a TS Again Down the Tropical Road. Yellow Circle Near the Yucatan. My Mermaid Area...2 PM Tropical Storm Lorenzo Forms! Jerry King of the Road, Karen Questions.. So Many Questions About Karen ... Models Getting Funky.
5 PM.
Live Blogging huh?
Going to take a break.
As I said below... not much has changed.
Tropical Storm Karen was demoted.
Kind of as expected.
How much foreshadowing can the NHC do?
How many planes can be sent it to find...
...what isn't there.
Note they forecast it to be a TS again.
After it moves through the Islands.
And when it turns West towards Florida.
So will Karen reform?
Maybe.
Stay tuned.
Interesting tropical drama.
Good graphics in one tweet so using it.
Good to follow always.
Seems the planes kept looking...
...but as the song goes.
There was nothing at all.
TD not TS for now.
Karen in time out this afternoon...
...cone though the same.
And many cities in it's Wind Probs.
See cones below.
NHC UPDATE: #Karen to impact Puerto Rico as a tropical depression. TS warnings are issued. #Lorenzo expected to become the 3rd major hurricane of the 2019 Atlantic hurricane season. #Jerry to impact Bermuda as a Tropical Storm were warnings are posted. pic.twitter.com/5Mbp9892kI
4:30
I like to put things up before the 5 PM advisory.
That way it's my thoughts and perhaps.
Explains what the 5 PM is showing.
Details matter.
So does timing.
And the whole issue right now is timing.
Intensity questions persist on Karen.
Models are funny.
Consistently delivering tropical rain to SFL.
3 Players right now.
Don't forget Lorenzo out there.
Looking beautiful but not near us.
What's odd is models see different things.
Some keep Karen an entity.
Other's lose Karen than Karen comes back.
Some see something by the Yucatan.
Earthnull actually sees Karen well.
Go figure on that one.
Not easy being NHC.
They have to answer to the public.
And to their superiors.
They are the bottom line.
When models don't make much sense.
I watch the water vapor loop and MIMIC.
And wait til the next model run.
There's Jerry center stage.
Karen pulses up and down.
Remember when Jerry did that?
Jerry did it drove everyone crazy.
They seem to be cut from the same cloth.
Near the tip of the Yucatan...
A red dot pops up.
Models don't really see much there.
And Lorenzo far away and beautiful.
I hate to tell you that you have to wait another day.
But it's true.
Karen may be a player...
...or it may be nothing at all.
Yet Karen has been a player.
And players don't like to die...
...but sometimes they play dead.
You know like playing possum...
And then they jump up and come back to life.
When the time is right.
And the shear calms down.
This song is stuck in my head
I made 2 videos.
Think on them when the 5 PM comes out.
And I'll update this evening.
Much to do here and I'm not feeling it.
Something is off...
..something is missing.
Soon we will see it.
I try to keep these to a minute.
Just some thoughts while watching the WV Loop.
This yellow circle has popped up.
I've been talking on it all morning.
Alluding to it last night.
Last night I posted this video.
What bothered me was....
...the tremendous amount of convection.
From the Yucatan across the Straits.
With that set up something was up...
1... something could form there.
2... It could impact the track of other storms.
Then I tweeted about it this morning.
It's persisted for way more than 12 hours.
Actually since yesterday moisture has been there.
I made a playful post about a mermaid in the GOM.
Today I posted a picture in a collage.
A reminder that the mermaid may...
...want to play ball.
This is the Tweet from last night.
And the loop discussion that goes with that.
Note I said last night Karen may become an open wave.
Or a weak disturbance perhaps?
If it cannot hold onto TS status.
@crankywxguy think I found my words. What I was trying to see. Actually 3 parallels. NW system add in big low past Greenland. Interesting water vapor loop #Karen goes N? Have to wait til tomorrow til I buy that (sound up...) pic.twitter.com/BSdZnUjynX
For the next 5 days so you can't blame that on Karen.
So what's causing?
Looking at the satellite image below.
Moisture streaming off of Jerry....
High to the North.
This area looks better than Karen.
Yes, I said that.
And I'll update later.
But the NHC just put a yellow dot.
On my area I've been talking about.
But my issue here is this.
Yes it could form.
But what if Karen falls apart?
Convection wandering around....
...possibly off track from the TS Cone?
And Jerry hits a wall of high pressure.
What pulls a system towards Florida?
Vs saying being trapped and looping.
Waiting for the ridge to break?
The only thing that would pull it is...
...if there was low pressure to the West.
And now we see what that might be.
Stay tuned, looking at models at 4 ish.
Lorenzo is finally official!
Note they show say they are being conservative.
I'd give it easy chances of being a Major out at sea.
Showing Jerry first as ...
...there have been questions on it's track.
Long term.
Note they don't slow it down at the end.
Odd... But they bend it a bit South of East.
Will see what they do at 5 pm.
Imagine they like everyone else....
...is waiting on the next model runs.
More on that down deep in the blog.
This is just a 11 AM update.
And Karen remains a question mark.
You can find Karen below....
...down below Jerry.
2 red dots flaring up.
Lorenzo solid red dot far out there.
Here's our satellite loop for the day.
Monday Morning.
Jerry bright and colorful East of Florida.
Waiting for his ticket to ride ...out to sea.
But does Jerry have a surprise for us?
Some models say it's possible.
I mean goes out to sea and then...
....oh what's that all about.
Hmnnn...Remember Karen is down below.
And there's a high pressure ridge building in.
....before I write in the morning so I stay fresh.
Well... I read the NHC discussion.
So remember Karen is the big question.
Discussion this morning basically is on whether or not Karen survives as a Tropical Storm or gets downgraded to a Tropical Depression. The NHC has put the TD word into their foreshadowing early morning discussion and they are opening the door for that action if Karen doesn't step up to the plate and do something fast to change that eventuality. And, Karen is a big question mark that hangs over the East Coast as many models (as well as the NHC discussion) hold out the possibility that once past PR it may strengthen again; well unless it dies completely. So, today is a day to see what Karen really has and what she does not have... that being a real center with Tropical Storm force winds. Easy money is on a downgrade soon but a possible upgrade in the near future, however I wouldn't bet money on Karen just yet.
As for Jerry as much as it looks like he wants to bust North he is held down by a huge high pressure, yet he pushes against the tide nonstop and you can see this in his current satellite imagery but Jerry has generally held onto to mediocre but there status and stubbornly flares up just when needed to keep the attention of the NHC. It should go out to sea eventually.
Jerry is kind of like King of the Road here ...
....the only really clear cut winner.
Visible easily.
Another view...
Note explosion of convection in Karen.
There is some connection there still.
At times it's connected to Jerry.
At times Karen looks like she leaving Jerry.
So much drama.
Karen may not want to let Jerry go?
Who knows.
Foreshadowing.
Waiting for more models to vote.
Is Jerry looping back?
Keep that in mind when you hear
"out to sea....."
Out to sea but for how long?
Fall Storms often loop.
We are officially into Fall.
Well Mike on Spaghetti Models.
Calls him Juicy Jerry.
Maybe Karen likes that...or not.
Note it's flaring up on the NE side today.
Hmmmn drama..
Speaking of Mike...
..wore his shirt yesterday.
Went to the Flea Market.
Before it becomes the State Fair in October.
Back to the tropical discussion below.
Picture at the bottom ;)
What is interesting is that Karen looks kind of like an appendage to Jerry's tail in this satellite imagery here. Like the tail grew a pimple, or maybe I'm thinking of some Adam's Rib joke but if Karen redevelops it might not be so funny as it may be the trouble Jerry leaves behind as the strong heat ridge once known as Indian Summer in the old days is hanging over the Southeast like one last kiss from Summer before we move finally into Fall. What worries me here is that often Fall and cooler weather is ushered in by some late season hurricane that flips that switch as if it's saying "Lord do I have to do everything by myself!!" and then the hurricane passes inland, the cool air ushers down and people begin to miss what they have been bitching about that being the good old warm days of summer.
But everyone loves Fall right? I do finally, it took a while I will admit, but yeah Fall in the Carolinas is beautiful and football is on the scene as Baseball begins to move towards it's eventual climax and trees lose their leaves one by one and we look longingly towards our first winter snow. In South Florida people longingly look for a cold front and wince knowing snowbirds will be arriving soon.
And that's the way it goes on today the official beginning of Fall, as the Autumn Equinox is today so if you want to do any Fall mischief such as eating pumpkin ice cream or having a Pumpkin Spice Frappe (too hot for lattes) today is your day. Maybe start a new diary or begin a to do list or a Vision Board for Fall. Plan out your Halloween Party and hope that no hurricane is going to come as a surprise guest. We went to the State Fair Grounds yesterday that hosts the NC State Flea Market every month of the year except October when the Fair comes to town. Lots of old toys, yard stuff on sale and Trader Joe's was sampling Pumpkin everything yesterday.
Does Karen want to play ball with Jerry?
Does Jerry want to play ball with Karen.
And what about Lorenzo??
BOTTOM LINE... Jerry....doing what Jerry always does, just enough to stay alive. Karen...a mystery still as to it's current condition and a question mark on the future. Lorenzo now officially a Tropical Storm forecast for now to go out to sea gracefully.
Will Lorenzo go out to sea gracefully? Maybe.
Will Karen survive? I'd say there's a better chance down the road it's still there than not.
Will Jerry go out to sea... the NHC is sure of it. But will Jerry stay out at sea or ...
...come back for Karen?
Take the day to to what you love doing the most, if you got the time... and if not dream on it a bit when you have a moment to rest. Do not throw out the Hurricane Supplies if you live in South Florida or the Gulf of Mexico states (Alabama included) and if you live further Up North you know what to do with them... hold onto them for Winter Weather and possible Ice Storms.
Images below. I'll do a video later today and some model discussion, but still waiting to see what happens today with Karen before saying more on that. I think Karen has more of a kick than is visible on satellite imagery creating much drama down in the Islands, it's visible on Earthnull for the first time from far away so I'd vote she stays around in some form or another for a bit longer.
While not the best signature.
I can see something is there.
Yesterday I could not.
Karen needs to lift it it wants to survive.
Lift or ooze on other and reform it's center.
Karen needs to let Jerry go...
Ironically Karen and Lorenzo
Have the similar barometric pressure.
Totally different satellite signature but ti's true.
At 11 AM they lowered Lorenzo's a drop.
As it is now a Tropical Storm.
See a tail of 2 storms.
Both had 1007 MB at 5 AM.
Karen had 40 MPH in theory..
... TD13 became Lorenzo.
That was a done deal.
Gotta love the NHC for headlines.
Sounds like a new Fall Drama on ABC!
And of course Karen's ultimate track is a question.
Almost looks like a question mark doesn't it?
Know there are watches and warnings up...
..for the Islands as Karen is forecast to move over them.
While worrying on Florida remember ...
...there's more to Karen's track than that.
According to the NHC...
...for the foreseeable five days.
Lorenzo going out to sea.
Let's revisit that in 3 or 4 days.
As models this year have been infamous..
..for surprise drama.
Oh and Lorenzo expected to be a Hurricane.
I'd guess they are too low.
May be a Major.
Keep watching.
So there you go a long Monday Morning old fashioned BobbiStorm Blog. Words, maps, discussion, being a bit too silly and offering life suggestions (vision board or football, your call) and I'll add some music in at the end as always. Bit poetic and creative today on the first official day of Fall. I'll do a video or two later, and we will see what the NHC finds out from their Karen Investigation and we will see if Karen tries to reform or not. Stay tuned. So many questions up the road as high pressure building in (sadly, it's hot here) and that high pressure could block Karen (if Karen is still there) from going out to sea. Maybe Karen wobbles or loops or stalls or hauls off to try and do one or two of the beach cities in Florida and I depending on how strong that high pressure ridge is I wouldn't count out Cuba (think Irma) so stay tuned. Check back later and as always follow me on Twitter and Instagram. I post to Instagram but I'm generally on Twitter all day if I'm awake checking it while doing other things.
Know the new models are showing some odd things. Talk on Fujiwara by a few models but that's really out there, can Karen and Jerry leave each other alone is the question? I'll post some cute tango dance later maybe, who knows. Really....who knows, that's the main bottom line today. As always don't eat the hurricane supplies and check back here later.
Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram.
Ps... as the long time readers of this blog know.. I love Nat King Cole.. no one like him. My Grandma Mary played this song on her piano all the time, grew up with it and love it.
Love the pictures here, it's true every leaf becomes a flower in Fall.
And North Carolina Fall is beautiful........ though I may be in Maryland for part of it.
UPDATED 9 AM...Dorian Coastal Georgia, South Carolina, North Carolina ALL in Danger... Models Tropics. Models Coming into Agreement. SC/NC Landfall For Dorian Possible. GA Gets Impacts as Does VA
Dorian is currently down by Daytona Beach.
But it's not exactly moving like a race car.
The sounds are there but not the speed.
The good news is it is picking up speed.
And moving steadily up along the coastline.
Offshore, tracing the coast.
NHC Cone traces the coast ...
like way a child outlines with black crayon.
Remember when you all did that?
Kids do it.
Dorian is doing it.
Any wiggle or joggle brings the eye over the shoreline.
But understand winds are not fluid with the NHC cone.
You can get much stronger gusts in a squall near the eye wall.
So even if you are 20 miles inland....
....there is no reason to feel safe.
Tornadoes and flooding..
happen way outside the cone.
We learned that in Floyd, Florence...
Irma and Matthew.
Always happens.
The cone is a guide and changes by degrees.
Remember that.
I love the other cone shown below.
This is interactive and takes impacts into consideration.
Local info for all the cities near or in the cone.
I'll update around Mid Day with Totally New Blog.
Wrote long last night around Midnight
NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED.
Dorian may STRENGTHEN.
NHC Discussion says..
MOVING BETWEEN NW and NNW.
Every degree West makes a difference.
And it's traversing Low Country.
This beautiful marshy area begins..
North Florida into Georgia.
South Carolina and up a bit into North Carolina.
In the path of Dorian.
And that's a big problem.
I don't see the NNW movement.
The eye is on radar.
It's a huge eye.
This map is my map for areas of concern.
Kure Beach is a point within it.
I used it to bring the map up.
From Pawley's to Kure I'm worried.
Closer up.
This area could get a landfall.
I'm not saying it would.
I'm saying it could.
The NHC Cone is just off shore.
Warnings are up and flash flood concerns are there.
Mike is great at knowing what people want.
What people need.
He has watches and warnings up..
...including inland before the cone.
The Cone is a con.
It's a good tool that gives you a visual feel ...
...but it's nudged in any direction a bit on every advisory.
People treat it as if it's carved in granite.
Models wiggle.
The hurricane misbehaves.
Then the cone is jiggled this way or that.
In the end the Hurricane wins.
The hurricane always does what it will.
A front approaches...
A high builds in....
A hurricane responds.
Caught on the flow but not totally.
Discussion below.
Ragged huge eye.
Intensity could be generous.
There words, mine are on Twitter.
I don't feel the winds are there...
...but will go with it.
Does it really matter?
Dorian finally moved again.
Steering currents should take the core near
"or possibly over, the coast of South and North Carolina.
That discussion is translated as...
"low confidence"
Models below.
In good agreement.
I mean this with total respect for NHC.
But with models like that...
..anyone could draw a cone.
Let's see how things change in the morning.
Best news of the nite is Josh is alive.
@icyclone can chase another day.
And Bahamas need help.
Lots and lots of help.
The beaches of Carolinas will need help.
Inland flooding is a problem always.
I'll go into that tomorrow.
This was more marking time.
Thinking outloud.
Nothing much has changed.
Dorian is moving.
Dealing with dry air.
But Dorian has always been a fighter.
Always.
Kind of like Josh.
Don't bet against them.
More tomorrow.
I with but I can't say.......
... this is just a near Wilmington ...
Clips the Outer Banks.
I'd love to say that.
I just don't feel it yet in my bones.
But I feel due to approach and timing issues.
And it's current longitude so far West.
It's more a landfall than a miss.
And the CONE has it's bets covered well.
It's a good cone.
Beautiful form.
Still down by Melbourne FLORIDA
Neat pretty.
Top heavy with long band going through NC
And SC up above ahead of the storm.
I just think this is one that doesn't slip away.
Either way does it matter?
Except for wild video at the ocean.
NC and SC are about farm land.
About inland flooding.
It's all River Basins as I've shown before.
The rivers that feed the farms....
... can flood the farms in a hurricane.
And that's been happening since ...
..we started settling in this area.
This beautiful neck of the woods.
The eye of #Dorian has returned. The hurricane is quickly regaining organization tonight as it lifts northwestard away from the Bahamas. pic.twitter.com/jnzJ8Y14z7
So many models to look at and many sites to use but I'm going to use an old school one that is easier I feel for many to use. http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/ You can use www.tropicaltidbits.com it is awesome and his work is awesome as he learns more and grows in his field of study. https://www.windy.com/ is at the bottom, a great visual way to look at models if the other way confuses you and it does confuse many.
Going to go through this carefully below.
But first I have to tell you it's hard to find a model.
That doesn't pull East enough to bother/hit/hurt SC/NC
And as for Georgia.. home of St. Marys and Savannah...
Doesn't look great for them either.
And when I say SC/NC I mean INLAND impacts are possible.
I have to tell you these are my cities.
My places I go to be at peace with the world.
I love Low Country. Marsh land we call it in GA.
Love it. I went to St. Marys a month ago ...
...to see how the rebuilding of the dock was going along.
SLOWLY is the answer.
Crazy storm surge from IRMA smashed
their dock to Cumberland Island.
Boats landed up in the park and on the street.
Beaumont SC is one of my favorite little towns.
I was there recently I blogged... I tweeted.
I looked out over the marsh, water and...
I saw a hurricane, storm surge...
I tried to tell myself it was my imagination.
But I've said for months I'm worried on a coastal storm.
Went to Beaufort recently.
Stopped at a Cafe for coffee.
Stared out at the water across the street.
Though good coffee .. Cantore would love it.
Think I teased him sent a tweet if he has to go there..
Great coffee and great view.
Now I am hoping he doesn't have to.
So this is not ALL about OBX.
It wasn't all about Florida.
It was horribly about the Bahamas.
Now what?
Will update at bottom next model runs.
Let's go through the Models carefully as these models show both Dorian's possible track and the track of other Atlantic cruisers showing up soon. NOTE MODELS CHANGE. The Cone always adjusts to the storm's actual movements and model guidance. So nothing here is set in stone. It's just to show you what may or may not happen and why you should not eat the hurricane supplies but keep them locked up tight.
Let's start with the much maligned Canadian.
Remember the storm track might be off...
...but all offer valuable info on the High and Fronts.
Location: Miami, Raleigh, Crown Heights, Florida, United States
Weather Historian. Studied meteorology and geography at FIU. Been quoted in Wall Street Journal, Washington Post & everywhere else... Lecturer, stormchaser, writer, dancer. If it's tropical it's topical ... covering the weather & musing on life. Follow me on Twitter @ https://twitter.com/#!/BobbiStorm
