2 Yellow Circles... 1 Orange. No Tropical Named Storm... Not Yet. Coastal Storm Forming in Real Time. Messy Week for Ships At Sea... Beach Erosion & a Possible October Surprise.

Writing https://t.co/XLVVLmtkcS in real time watching pieces of the tropical #puzzle come together that will have an impact along the coast up to #NE pic.twitter.com/BOnCXwbWIe

— BobbiStorm (@BobbiStorm) October 7, 2019

Turn the sound up....

...and see my thoughts on the water vapor loop.

I love the way Ed puts things together.

Ed makes great maps and graphics.

We have a strong orange area to the right.

Yet no one cares....

Everyone wants to know 

what's with the yellow circles.

I told one of my forever friends online that I really think the NHC pulled the plug on the Yucatan Yellow Area that was forecast to form to the left so that they could reintroduce it quietly again having it form to the right; because I always thought if anything was going to come of it ...it would head NE not NW. I discount models when they make no sense and watch the flow, the pattern and the water vapor loop so now an area that was near the Yucatan moved up across Cuba and is slamming parts of Florida with so much rain that even Dabuh complained.... 

THIS IS BRUTAL @GaughanSurfing MAKE IT STOP pic.twitter.com/YIbHnAh44d

— DaBuh (@DaDaBuh) October 7, 2019

Well that escalated fast.....

So now we are chasing moisture moving to the right.

You can see for  yourself it leans right.

And that's heavy rain under those reddish blobs.

Where is it going?

Up towards the other yellow circle.

There's a merging or an evolution.....

perhaps a hand off of energy.

You can see on Earthnull.... 

...there's lots of wiggly lines.

No closed circle.

And indeed currently it's one large trof of moisture.

Tropical Moisture.

It's forming in real time.

Models show different things....

...yet they agree that moisture hangs out along the coast.

Oh the EURO develops a tropical wave off Africa.

More on that later.

So let's look at a 3 day loop from NOAA.

It's a 3 day forecast it should verify.

Nice front coming down....

When things seem confusing...

...and models disagree.

I go to this short term loop.

3 days is almost set in stone.

Moisture moves up across Florida....

...reforming and combining with another area.

Into what will be a significant low pressure system.

But why kind and storm?

Which type forms?

Or does one form and then we get another.

Hope you read yesterday's history lesson.

It's a shame the NHC can't make a music video.

Sometimes a song doesn't get it wrong.

This sort of NHC update reminds me always of...

...the song Pieces of You.

(long story there.... 

....then I think of Foolish Games)

Again Earthnull.... 

Nothing concrete today.

Visible imagery shows something trying to wrap.

Or where something will wrap.

Extra credit image of a westbound tropical wave.

That moves into the Caribbean.

That needs to be watched down the line.

So it's always good to watch the MIMIC loop.

It shows where things begin to spin....

...it shows the flow of moisture.

It's a great tool.

I'll update tomorrow morning.

It's a time to watch and wait in real time.

As always MIMIC is always a great tool for watching heavy moisture and lows evolve in real time https://t.co/XLVVLmtkcS pic.twitter.com/J3UeGp0lWU

— BobbiStorm (@BobbiStorm) October 7, 2019

Again this could be a Subtropical Storm.

Or a Hybrid storm.

Or any named storm the NHC chooses to use..

It's not a clear cut system just yet.

And often these things can go either way or do both.

Read the previous blog please for historic references.

October.... messy hidden games.

Tropical systems mixing it up with cold fronts.

Hurricanes and Snow Storms on the map on the same day.

A tropical storm dresses up as a subtropical.

Or a hybrid storm cloaked in a strange costume.

And either way... heavy rain, winds and surf will happen.

Bad boating and beach conditions.

Merchant Marines... ships at sea.

Some coastal effects messing with the beaches.

October.. it's not over.

You're dreaming of snow....

...and getting slammed by tropical rain.

And then the storm goes away and...

...it's wet, chilly and cold.

And sometimes a surprise hurricane happens.

Don't say I didn't warn ya.

Good tweet here.....

now would be a great time for #wxtwitter to remind the public they are bad about guessing storm intensity sometimes.

— The King of America (@NewThor) October 7, 2019

Good thing to remember.

Very true.

NHC not as good with intensity forecasting...

...as they are their cone.

Things often change in real time.

Don't say I didn't warn ya...

Stay tuned.

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram

Tropical Storm Barry...Hard Facts, Discussions and Reality Bites. Barry's Barely Crawling. Barry Needs To Wrap and Move To Be SURE of End Results. 93L Is a Sign of Things To Come... Loops, Links to Save For Future Use This Hurricane Season.

11 PM

Even though its shape leaves a lot to be desired, #Barry strengthens again with winds up from 45 to 50 mph as of 11 pm advisory. pic.twitter.com/gg1Om1uMo2

— Phil Ferro (@PhilFerro7) July 12, 2019

Compare and contrast with earlier info. 

Will update Friday Morning before 9 AM.

Cone and Update package at 8 PM.

Spoiler Alert.

Barry didn't make it's forecast point.

Now "moving" at 3 MPH W

'

While this cone is a great product.

It really does a poor job of explaining who will get weather.

And weather is the name of the game.

And Barry is huge... unless he wraps up tight.

The weather is everywhere.

That's a problem this blog post explains.

So let's talk about Tropical Storm Barry.

Funny how the cone looks so neat and clear cut.

There is nothing neat about Barry.

Barry is so unkempt he looks like my nephew at 15 years old.

Seriously looking at the cone is misleading.

Why? 

Because WEATHER is EVERYWHERE......

The cone follows the CENTER of the track.

The cone is tracking the center of the storm.

Read the fine print.

Weather is and will be everywhere.

This is a mess.

And it's impact is going to be wide and far reaching.

It is not Hurricane Andrew or Michael.

I doubt it will ever get it's act together.

But I could be wrong.

The "center" is the area devoid of weather by the way.

Where is the weather you ask?

Side by side.

You see.... where the big V is....

Not that huge mass near Texas.

Not the part that is lunging into the NE GOM

Looks like more of an Extratropical Storm in a way.

Hmmmmnnnnn

This is what makes Tropical Weather interesting.

But it's been slow going.

After yesterday this is truly how I felt.

Truly. Honestly.

Maybe Barry broke Twitter :(

I took the day off as had been planned.

Good day as Twitter took the day off too.

I shopped. 

Nespresso Boutique.

Victoria's Secret

Sephora

Nordstrom

I had lunch at Sweet Frog Frozen Yogurt.

I feel refreshed thankfully.

So going slow with Barry for now.

Because Barry is moving slow.

So giving you my thoughts and some links.

https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/sector_band.php?sat=

G16&sector=gm&band=02&length=36

Long link.

This IS the CENTER of BARRY

Wide view of the weather associated with Barry.

Tropical Storm Barry.

Taking up most of the Gulf of Mexico.

Trying to strengthen.

From the blog post earlier today.

Compare advisories and track.

Barry moved .3 W in six hours.

Forecast movement will be 5 MPH . . .

Some models show Barry bobbling around there for days.

Others show different solutions.

We are entering into Spaghetti Models territory

www.spaghettimodels.com

Why are they beginning to go crazy?

Because Barry is barely moving.

Movement impacts track and intensity.

We need to stop and breathe for a minute.

If you are in the Cone or near the Cone...

If your local NWS says you will be impacted in some way.

Prepare accordingly.

But NOTHING is LOCKED IN with this storm.

Not until it becomes a full whole round storm.

Not until it moves more than 5 mph.

Not until it intensifies.

Read my previous discussion on Earl 1998.

This may look worse than Earl.

And I know a few forecasters there that thought ....

...that nothing would ever look as bad as Earl!

Maybe Barry will surprise us all.

The BIG surprise may be TORNADOES.

Once inland especially in areas of elevation...

Tornadoes may spin up everywhere.

And remember as Barry began over land...

...Barry may look better over land.

I have seen that happen more than once with similar storms.

The reality here of Tropical Storm Barry is that the NHC is erring on the side of caution to protect lives and help people secure their property in the path of Barry. And, to be honest when people here NEW ORLEANS everyone perks up the way they do when a Hurricane looks like it's wants to do South Beach and people here MIAMI. Suddenly everyone is interested in what is going on with Barry and to be clear it will mostly impact small bayou towns and back woods sort of places that you never hear anything about. And, really God Bless the Cajun Navy because they are already gearing up to go out after Barry makes his move... to help rescue and save lives.

Low lying areas are more prone to flooding and and there could be much flooding after Barry moves towards landfall. Should Barry make continue crawling along to the West and impact the borderlands of the Sabine River area know there's a huge swamp there, bayous and backwoods and it's pretty much the same landscape you find along the Central Louisiana coastline and inland a ways. I still think the Vermillion Bay area will feel Barry however unless and until when Barry's eye tightens up Barry is a whole mess of weather moving slowly, gathering moisture and at some point some steering current will catch it's attention and grab it.

Until that happens take any and every model with a lot of salt. I don't mean just a bit of salt, I'm talking more than you would use to salt the rim of a Margarita!  Why you ask? Because if a storm like Barry dawdles too long it misses the doorway to the North and a door can slam shut and a new window will open eventually. Also when you have a storm the size of a double wide on a highway it's harder to turn and it moves slower than if it wraps into a neat little borderline hurricane and moves along zippy like as a 2019 Toyota Camry. Barry is never going to be a Lexus so let's go with a Camry; my best friend drives a late model Camry and she's afraid to take it very far and it needs work but it's a good car all in all.

Use these sites. Go to the movies. Stimulate the economy. Breathe and take a look at Barry tomorrow morning. Unless you live in warned areas then act accordingly. Here are some links you may enjoy using.

www.hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com
https://spaghettimodels.com/ check out his Facebook Page Lives.
https://www.facebook.com/mikesweatherpage/
https://www.windy.com/
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/ Use his satellite loops and model links.. listen to his videos.
https://www.aviationweather.gov/satellite/plot?region=mgm&type=wv&date= play with it..
https://earth.nullschool.net/
www.crownweather.com
www.flhurricane.com  has a good message board and many links.
www.hurricanecity.com
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/satellite.php
https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/sector_band.php?sat=G16&sector=gm&band=09&length=36

Long link...great site play with it I like it better than other popular sites.
https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=continental-southconus-ntmicro-96-1-100-1&checked=latlon-map&colorbar=undefined

As for Invest 93L
It's unique to have a system in the MDR it's a sign of things to come.
Stock up now on hurricane supplies in FL, GOM, SE Coast... don't say I didn't warn ya..

I'll be back when there is real new info.

I wanted to leave you with links and loops.

Thoughts and realities.

I was a bit silly earlier and that's good.

The previous Live Blog is GOOD.

But this is the basic down to earth honest facts.

Keep watching...

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instgram.

Ps.. If I wrote long details of models and discussion it would be wrong.

Until Barry really wraps and picks up speed and moves.

Every model is open for discussion.

The NHC does it's best.

But they may be serving pasta for dinner the next few days.

I'm serving BBQ Sloppy Joes to my husband.

And Salad of course...

And dessert but I'm not telling what dessert is ;)

Again expect surprises with Barry.

You thought you were going to get Jimmy right?

Wrong..... same song tho...

For Invest 93L
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=eatl&product=ir

Thoughts on 2018 Hurricane Season on a Rainy Day In Raleigh. Flooding in France. Musing.

The poor statue is under the weather today, hip high in flooding as the river Seine is on the rise. It's raining on the East Coast today. It would be a slow boring, monotonous ride on the Silver Star today if I was on a train North Bound.

Some personal thoughts on a rainy gray day in Raleigh.  That almost rhymes though it's a rhyme I didn't intend to make. I did want to post some weather thoughts today, however I warn you this is more of a personal post so I may ramble a bit with an overall theme of a gray winter day.

Today was the day I wanted to go outside somewhere bright and beautiful and breathe fresh air. I've been sick or as we say in the business "under the weather" and I really would love to have walked around outside in the Carolina sunshine. Seems I'll have to wait until Wednesday for real sunshine or at least tomorrow for the rain to take a breather. I'm comfortable and cozy here in the room with a candle burning and TWC on mute. If I hear them talk about the "deadly flu" one more time I'll turn them off and just play some music.

I'm really doing better than I was the other day. No fever and coughing less and sipping the horrible tasting Traditional Medicinal Tea that really works but I dislike fennel and licorice and both are the main ingredients. I suppose sometimes you have to take things that are good for you even if you don't like the taste. I added a heavy Trader Joe's fruit beverage that has purple carrots in it and masks the taste just a bit.

I started weeding through my gmail that has now reached over 587 letters to read. If this was my old library job I'm pretty sure I'd weed the whole account, however it's the vehicle I use to blog so probably not. The new world we live in reminds us of everything we ever typed. The horrible eye shadow color I looked at and didn't like shows up in my advertisements; Facebook offers me deals for it. I know you are supposed to search incognito but really the struggle is real. I delete and unfriend and unsubscribe and yet they show up eventually back in my gmail. I may have to resolve this sometime soon after kicking the flu or a cold and then catch up on all the things I didn't do while resting and fighting the flu or cold or whatever it was that put me under the weather.

Speaking of weather.... It's kind of boring for me here. It's kind of boring everywhere. It's basically just "winter" and there are no snowflakes insight on my 10 day weather forecast though a few may sneak in on the tail end of a cold front on Tuesday. A few as in I'd probably miss them while going to the bathroom or boiling water for a cup of tea.

A bird is singing outside. I guess this is a break in the rain. The bird is singing loudly.

Paris is under water today and I do not mean Paris, Texas. Paris, like Charleston, has a history of flooding. We don't hear about it often unless it makes the news or someone with an agenda of Global Warming decides to post a ton of pictures as if Paris never flooded before.

https://www.societegenerale.com/en/about-us/our-identity/150-years-of-history/team-spirit/paris-under-water-the-flood-of-1910

That said the pictures are a vivid stunning reminder that when we live near a river we are often at the mercy or Mother Nature even without a hurricane or winter snow melting.

Years ago storms hit without warning and there was no way to predict a little bit of flooding would turn into an epic event washing away small towns. On days when it's quiet and I'm not rushing about things hit me in a different way. The realization of something we take for granted such as the five or ten day forecast. People argue on the models and complain when the forecast is off, however there was a time when the models weren't there to debate. I have 2 different Farmer's Almanacs this year because I travel a lot and they make for easy reading when you can't charge your phone on an airplane. One has been spot on with weather and the other has fallen behind seriously in accuracy. Not that I really expect it to be right at all but it's worth noting both snow falls in Raleigh were noted in one of the Almanacs perfectly. Glad we have the models.


So as for today's weather. The moisture is coming up from the Gulf of Mexico. This has been a continual theme this winter in the South and East and I'd expect this is going to continue as a theme as we move into the 2018 Hurricane Season. I can give you many reasons I believe this will be an equally busy hurricane season as the last though tracks do not often repeat but have general similarities. More of the same as long as we have this current set up.

So take this time to review your priorities and properly prepare for the 2018 Hurricane Season. It's that simple. And, if you live where winter weather has reached you earlier this winter than I suggest you don't think winter is over because the usual January Thaw set in as we all know February blows in a fierce reminder we are still dealing with winter a bit longer.

Again we have models and our long range forecasts are better than they were back in 1978 when much of New England was blindsided by a blizzard of epic proportions.

http://boston.cbslocal.com/2018/01/28/blizzard-of-1978-wbz-tv-eye-on-weather-barry-burbank-bruce-schwoegler/

So let's give thanks....

To better forecasts!

Also the much aligned web makes it so much easier to assimilate that information out where it needs to go and in today's world that means multiple social platforms that are seen on your phone the moment you wake up to give you the most accurate information for what you may expect on any given day. Years ago you knew it was winter and it could snow. It was basically that simple. Yes we had satellites but we were still in the infancy of modern day forecasting. If it wasn't in the newspaper or you missed the nightly news unless your crazy Aunt Martha called you up to tell you she heard there might be weather you might have missed it until the snow began to fall in epic proportions.

https://www.wcpo.com/lifestyle/from-the-vault/from-the-vault-back-to-back-winters-of-1976-77-and-1977-78-were-coldest-snowiest

I dislike hyping weather events but some were epic.  The winter of 1977 - 1978 was epic and part of a pattern that went longer than one year. Hurricane seasons can be that way too. The very busy hurricane season of 1995 was followed by 1996, the very busy hurricane season of 2004 was followed by the memorable 2005 hurricane season. I'd venture to add the 2017 hurricane season will be followed by a busy 2018 hurricane season. I'll elaborate on that more in upcoming blogs but just putting that thought out there. So while complaining on the strong winds in Miami this week know they only will get that strong and no stronger. It's just wind not a hurricane. I can't promise though on what will blow through in 5 or 6 months from now as the Gulf of Mexico could produce early trackers.

Stay tuned.

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter

Ps... Don't you just love these. They are great set to music. Still trying to learn the nuances of the crypto meaning behind these long loops. Can't wait to see how they play out during the hurricane season.

It occurs to me today that Joni Mitchel was yesterday's Taylor Swift in her way. I liked a few of her songs in retrospect but was never her biggest fan. She was a bit before my time and when I go "there" I think Carole King and Judy Collins. But the song fits... we could round and round in the circle game.

The seasons they go round and round and soon we will be tracking hurricanes again. 

95L has 50% Chances & May Have a Date with Recon Later Today. 96L Might Be Forming Behind It. Tropics Heat Up on Monday Morning. Eastern Carib on Watch for 2nd Bret Like Scenario. Remembering Dave Schwartz

Seems the tropical waves didn't get the memo...

..this was supposed to be a quiet week in the tropics.

There was also talk on MJO ramping things up.. 

Let's deal with the lead wave.

It has 50 % odds of forming as of 8 AM.

I told you there would be sneaky waves this year.

Note how nicely 95L is doing just below the SAL 

Kind of impressive - shows it's a fighter.

The wave behind it and below is is larger.

The wave behind is easily twice the size of 95L.

It is also a bit too low to develop for now.

There is something called the Coriolis Effect.

It's a delicate balance with regard to placement along the ITCZ.

It's kind of like learning to twirl a baton.

I'll explain that later today.

If you are too close to the equator it's a death sentence.

The lower they stay easier to sneak under the SAL as Bret did.

In order to start spinning they need to be above 5 North closer to 10 N.

However the lower waves help moisten up the atmosphere for the others.

Compare the above image to the loop below.

See how much moisture there is to maintain 95L

Note below the two systems and also the frontal boundary.

It's not a real COLD front as much as a stalled out front.

I wanted to mention that.

Another thing to remember.

If 96L behind it develops..

..as it's bigger it help keep 95L going West.

If 96L develops and many seem to believe it will.

Can 95L maintain, grow and fight a strong ULL.

Wind shear and SAL?

Time will tell.

Keep watching.

Again they can aid short term development.

They can kill off a system as we saw with TD 4

So here we go again. Yes tracking similar waves in a similar environment and we think we should not bother but it's what we do ... we watch the tropics as we move closer to August.

We've seen this set up before. Two waves with overlapping formation zones to the South of a huge dry area of SAL moving West or WNW down the tropical road. Happens a lot here early in the season, not to say we don't have multiple waves closer to Africa sometimes. The lead wave is smaller or as we say in tropical meteorology "compact" being politically correct. The one behind it has more moisture in a larger pocket, however it's center seems to be more diffuse and harder to find. The twist in the lead wave is noticeable on satellite imagery. There is a recon flight into that wave later today. If they change their minds they may cancel it but for now it's on the agenda. You know government jobs have lots of forms, you have to put in the forms even if you change your mind later and cancel the scheduled flight. It's not United... no Tweet wars over cancelled recon flights.

The first thing you see is the fast flow to the North of the waves.

A wider view shows the dust and huge ULL in the Atlantic as well.

There are actually 2 ULLs and 2 waves.

A stalled out frontal boundary.

GOM has some convection rotating close in as well.

You can see the consolidation on Invest 95L further west.

Being a small system the models aren't always reliable.

That's one reason recon would be a great idea.

If there is enough confidence in 95L to go to the distance.

Or at least make it into the East Caribbean.

Long range solutions slam it into Central America still.

For now I'd like to just focus on the short term.

Eastern Caribbean already visited by Bret is on watch.

Waiting to see what 95L has in store for it.

I know it seems Deja Vu.

But patterns exist during each hurricane season.

So keep watching. 

I'll update on 95L later today. 

If 96L is introduced I'll update as well.

Now for some musing and entertainment.

While waiting to see what 95L has under the hood..

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter.

Check me out there for faster and sillier comments.

Well only sometimes.

When the tropics get real we get real serious.

For now I'm still doing a tap dance.

Thinking of buying a baton.

I used to do baton twirling.. 

The first time you see it ... it's exciting but after a while it seems Deja Vu. We've tracked before, loved before and yet who knows where or when? Waves don't always tell..

Look Dean Martin looks like he's traveling a formation zone ..

Never realized he looks like Dave Schwartz in ways til now.

Makes sense. Dave liked to tap dance too..

See? You be the judge.......

He is missed every hurricane season.

One of a kind.

Invest 95L Forms in Atlantic Headed For Caribbean & Central America for Tropical Sunday Brunch

Discussion worth reading from NHC

And now let's look at Invest 95L below:

Ever watched Chopped? You know the look on their faces when they open their baskets up and see the four ingredients and there's emu eggs, matzoh, craw fish and a dragon fruit and they just stare at it a while thinking "what the hell? Obviously someone's making their own version of not kosher fishy Mazto Brei with Dragon Fruit Sauce. Matzo Brei is sort of like French Toast but not really but hey if you pour honey or Maple Syrup over anything it's usually worth eating.  And that leads us back to Invest 95L.  What is it? The NRL site is up and running with it and there's even a floater. There is mild model support and an iffy window for development. 

This is 95L on the NRL

Below is Hurricane Fernanda

Yeah... got a long way to go honey ...

I'm trying reverse psychology here so be warned..

So what's up with this Invest?

It's like having all the ingredients with no recipe.

Sort of winging it and hoping the hash comes out right.

Helps to thrown in honey or rum usually...

Molasses if you live in the Carolinas!

It has weak model support.

Water warm enough.

Low shear where it is currently.

It can't go too high or gets in trouble.

Staying low it has low spin potential.

Kind of like Johnny Cash walking the line.

Too close to the equator and it can't find it's mojo.

Too far North it has shear and dust.

We've seen this tango already this year.

It's name was Bret.

It's an easier sell than TD4 models.

BAMN SLAMS INTO CENTRAL AMERICA!

Plausible.

For those geographically challenged here's the map below:

For now intensity wise let's talk on a Tropical Storm

If this doesn't develop it can go into the EPAC..

..and get way better model support.

The EPAC has been hot. 

The Atlantic has not.

Can 95L be a break out ?

Time will tell...

If there was a group for tropical weather groupies I'd be in it. It's an odd addiction and trust me I have many. It's hard not to loop it and look and well that's how it goes. I can simply put up a track map and say "keep watching" and have a nice Sunday.

Can I get a Hallelujah? Can I get an Amen? ... I find my soul revival listening to Maren Morris and looping. For now all we can do is see where this goes.......when this wonderful world gets heavy and I need to find my escape... I just keep the loops looping and listening to music til my sins wash away. ;) And It's an addiction I'm not planning on giving up any time soon... 

Miss Chavis puts it simply and well below:

As for me I'm gonna make some Matzo Brei I think..

.. we have a lot of Matzo left................

Or maybe not.

I'm just playing it by ear today.. 

..wishing I was anywhere but here.

Don't say I didn't warn ya when the real hurricanes show up.

Besos BobbiStorm

@BobbiStorm on Twitter

Matzo Brei Recipe ;)

http://www.bonappetit.com/recipe/matzo-brei