Tropical Storm Barry...Hard Facts, Discussions and Reality Bites. Barry's Barely Crawling. Barry Needs To Wrap and Move To Be SURE of End Results. 93L Is a Sign of Things To Come... Loops, Links to Save For Future Use This Hurricane Season.
11 PM
Even though its shape leaves a lot to be desired, #Barry strengthens again with winds up from 45 to 50 mph as of 11 pm advisory. pic.twitter.com/gg1Om1uMo2— Phil Ferro (@PhilFerro7) July 12, 2019
Compare and contrast with earlier info.
Will update Friday Morning before 9 AM.
Cone and Update package at 8 PM.
Spoiler Alert.
Barry didn't make it's forecast point.
Now "moving" at 3 MPH W
'
While this cone is a great product.
It really does a poor job of explaining who will get weather.
And weather is the name of the game.
And Barry is huge... unless he wraps up tight.
The weather is everywhere.
That's a problem this blog post explains.
So let's talk about Tropical Storm Barry.
Funny how the cone looks so neat and clear cut.
There is nothing neat about Barry.
Barry is so unkempt he looks like my nephew at 15 years old.
Seriously looking at the cone is misleading.
Why?
Because WEATHER is EVERYWHERE......
The cone follows the CENTER of the track.
The cone is tracking the center of the storm.
Read the fine print.
Weather is and will be everywhere.
This is a mess.
And it's impact is going to be wide and far reaching.
It is not Hurricane Andrew or Michael.
I doubt it will ever get it's act together.
But I could be wrong.
The "center" is the area devoid of weather by the way.
Where is the weather you ask?
Side by side.
You see.... where the big V is....
Not that huge mass near Texas.
Not the part that is lunging into the NE GOM
Looks like more of an Extratropical Storm in a way.
Hmmmmnnnnn
This is what makes Tropical Weather interesting.
But it's been slow going.
After yesterday this is truly how I felt.
Truly. Honestly.
Maybe Barry broke Twitter :(
I took the day off as had been planned.
Good day as Twitter took the day off too.
I shopped.
Nespresso Boutique.
Victoria's Secret
Sephora
Nordstrom
I had lunch at Sweet Frog Frozen Yogurt.
I feel refreshed thankfully.
So going slow with Barry for now.
Because Barry is moving slow.
So giving you my thoughts and some links.
Long link.
This IS the CENTER of BARRY
Wide view of the weather associated with Barry.
Tropical Storm Barry.
Taking up most of the Gulf of Mexico.
Trying to strengthen.
From the blog post earlier today.
Compare advisories and track.
Barry moved .3 W in six hours.
Forecast movement will be 5 MPH . . .
Some models show Barry bobbling around there for days.
Others show different solutions.
We are entering into Spaghetti Models territory
Why are they beginning to go crazy?
Because Barry is barely moving.
Movement impacts track and intensity.
We need to stop and breathe for a minute.
If you are in the Cone or near the Cone...
If your local NWS says you will be impacted in some way.
Prepare accordingly.
But NOTHING is LOCKED IN with this storm.
Not until it becomes a full whole round storm.
Not until it moves more than 5 mph.
Not until it intensifies.
Read my previous discussion on Earl 1998.
This may look worse than Earl.
And I know a few forecasters there that thought ....
...that nothing would ever look as bad as Earl!
Maybe Barry will surprise us all.
The BIG surprise may be TORNADOES.
Once inland especially in areas of elevation...
Tornadoes may spin up everywhere.
And remember as Barry began over land...
...Barry may look better over land.
I have seen that happen more than once with similar storms.The reality here of Tropical Storm Barry is that the NHC is erring on the side of caution to protect lives and help people secure their property in the path of Barry. And, to be honest when people here NEW ORLEANS everyone perks up the way they do when a Hurricane looks like it's wants to do South Beach and people here MIAMI. Suddenly everyone is interested in what is going on with Barry and to be clear it will mostly impact small bayou towns and back woods sort of places that you never hear anything about. And, really God Bless the Cajun Navy because they are already gearing up to go out after Barry makes his move... to help rescue and save lives.
Low lying areas are more prone to flooding and and there could be much flooding after Barry moves towards landfall. Should Barry make continue crawling along to the West and impact the borderlands of the Sabine River area know there's a huge swamp there, bayous and backwoods and it's pretty much the same landscape you find along the Central Louisiana coastline and inland a ways. I still think the Vermillion Bay area will feel Barry however unless and until when Barry's eye tightens up Barry is a whole mess of weather moving slowly, gathering moisture and at some point some steering current will catch it's attention and grab it.
Until that happens take any and every model with a lot of salt. I don't mean just a bit of salt, I'm talking more than you would use to salt the rim of a Margarita! Why you ask? Because if a storm like Barry dawdles too long it misses the doorway to the North and a door can slam shut and a new window will open eventually. Also when you have a storm the size of a double wide on a highway it's harder to turn and it moves slower than if it wraps into a neat little borderline hurricane and moves along zippy like as a 2019 Toyota Camry. Barry is never going to be a Lexus so let's go with a Camry; my best friend drives a late model Camry and she's afraid to take it very far and it needs work but it's a good car all in all.
Use these sites. Go to the movies. Stimulate the economy. Breathe and take a look at Barry tomorrow morning. Unless you live in warned areas then act accordingly. Here are some links you may enjoy using.
www.hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com
https://spaghettimodels.com/ check out his Facebook Page Lives.
https://www.facebook.com/mikesweatherpage/
https://www.windy.com/
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/ Use his satellite loops and model links.. listen to his videos.
https://www.aviationweather.gov/satellite/plot?region=mgm&type=wv&date= play with it..
https://earth.nullschool.net/
www.crownweather.com
www.flhurricane.com has a good message board and many links.
www.hurricanecity.com
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/satellite.php
https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/sector_band.php?sat=G16§or=gm&band=09&length=36
Long link...great site play with it I like it better than other popular sites.
https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=continental-southconus-ntmicro-96-1-100-1&checked=latlon-map&colorbar=undefined
As for Invest 93L
It's unique to have a system in the MDR it's a sign of things to come.
Stock up now on hurricane supplies in FL, GOM, SE Coast... don't say I didn't warn ya..
I'll be back when there is real new info.
I wanted to leave you with links and loops.
Thoughts and realities.
I was a bit silly earlier and that's good.
The previous Live Blog is GOOD.
But this is the basic down to earth honest facts.
Keep watching...
Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instgram.
Ps.. If I wrote long details of models and discussion it would be wrong.
Until Barry really wraps and picks up speed and moves.
Every model is open for discussion.
The NHC does it's best.
But they may be serving pasta for dinner the next few days.
I'm serving BBQ Sloppy Joes to my husband.
And Salad of course...
And dessert but I'm not telling what dessert is ;)
Again expect surprises with Barry.
You thought you were going to get Jimmy right?
Wrong..... same song tho...
For Invest 93L
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=eatl&product=ir
Labels: 93L, Barry, hurricaneseason, links, loops, maps, models, weather
posted by BobbiStorm @ 4:40 PM
1 Comments:
And a well deserved rest. . . Shabbat Shalom
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