10 PM UPDATE... EURO SEES BARRY, GFS SEES BARRY AGAIN 92L EMERGING into GOM. Stay Tuned. Model Analysis & a Look At African Waves
They updated it to 90%
Officially we are holding at 90% chances in the 2 to 5 day.
But they didn't take the 70% below.
They are busy... obviously.
They did not post a Potential Tropical Cyclone Alert.
Why?
Lot's of reasons but it's their call.
The buck stops there if you know what I mean.
And, they don't get enough bucks either.
Sure Knapp gets paid more at TWC.
He seemed frustrated tonight.
I was not alone.
If you want precise forecasting pay for it.
Private forecasting provides that delicate attention to your needs.
There's a huge swath of moisture there.
Note the high on it's back side is pushing it West.
There's a lot of moisture there.
If that low level develops and can pull that moisture in...
... we could have a real player.
Note the wording below from the NHC.
"REGARDLESS...."
Heavy rain is expected.
"Watches could be required for a portion of the ..."
Send in the planes.
Play it that way.
I also think the real low has not come off into the water.
There was a lead center that was mid level.
A long trough like feature set up North South earlier.
The low level center is still over land.
You can see here above... the bright convective burst...
...is the "low level" center moving down over land.
Earthnull shows the round center by the Big Bend.
Once that center is over water planes will go in.
Lots of discussion tonight over it strengthening close in..
...before landfall.
Euro tonight strengthens it there.
GFS model was correct with the surface trough that set up.
Today it appeared to look like a tropical wave.
That was the mid level center.
And it isn't very apparent tonight.
There are a lot of moving parts here.
Throwing this out here... Weatherbell put out a "cone"
You can compare that and contrast it with what the NHC does.
You can watch the lightning going off.
There's real energy there.
Somewhere South of Mobile .. SE of the tip of Louisiana
Somewhere the center should set up.
Models show it forms quickly, wraps up and slides along the coast.
That's a set up like Charley that was so close to land.
And any point along the S coast of Louisiana it can make a move.
The south coast of Louisiana is hurricane country.
Just the names Morgan City, Vermillion Bay conjure up hurricanes
The HWRF that came out tonight and is not a lock in...
Showed a hurricane making an attempt at RI just before landfall.
I'd wait to jump into that pond but it's possible.
It also shows a bad set up where the remnants go up into Mississippi River Valley
Currently it's messy but I can see where it has a chance to clean up nice.
Note I see shear as a small problem.
If there are competing centers shear can be a factor early on.
I'm not sure why everyone says there is low shear... it's not strong but it's there.
Late night questions?
How big does Barry become?
Size wise?
Intensity wise?
Small storms can ramp up fast...
Will the core stack up vertically?
If not that's a problem for Barry but good for the coast.
If it stacks it can find a spot where it makes an attempt at RI
The HWRF could be onto something
The Weather Channel Van was seen on it's way to the coast.
I'll make a prediction.
Beautiful early morning shots of sunrise from some beach.
Jim Cantore and someone else... reporting live.
Just too many questions tonight
But they will be answered tomorrow.
Sweet Tropical Dreams.
Bobbistorm
Ps... it's a beautiful part of the country.
From the Florida Panhandle to the Texas Coast.
92L has made it into the GOM
I would expect the NHC to issue something at 5 PM
They have the product to issue a PTCW
Now would be the time to go with it.
It would also be the time to narrow the red zone.
If they really feel they can issue a 7 day forecast....
... it's time they issue a 3 day forecast.
It's a bit ridiculous and shows little confidence.
I've noticed today online one clear cut fact.
Most people no longer watch the loops but only models.
The models do not explain their logic.
Many mets try to do that.
And you can't have logic for GFS but looks like EURO
Or EURO rules but it's following the GFS.
There's an old clip from a show.
Everyone is told to run to the other side of the ship.
They stand there dressed in evening clothes nervously.
Then they are told to run back to the other side.
Oh my God...
Let the system form......
Let the system breathe.
The GFS isn't fixed.
IF it was fixed it wouldn't flip flop so much.
The EURO as always holds tight.
It might go down with the ship....
...but it holds it's course.
Other models have said it could be a Cat 2 Hurricane.
A Cat 1 Hurricane.
Tropical Storm.
A Hurricane.
Oh Lord breathe.......
The NHC needs to issue some statement.
Narrow the formation zone
Or put up a projected cone.
Either you can forecast 5 to 7 days out.
Or you can't.
Which is it?
This is the worst case scenario for the NWS.
A system super close to land.
Rain already falling over areas prone to flooding.
Talking street and bayou flooding not storm surge.
So close in that it could...
Lunge up for the coast....
Then the feature that is trying to lift Barry...
Get's pushed away by a High on the move.
It gets trapped a bit and moves West again.
This could get messy.
But with dropsonde info...
...some Gulfstream Jet data.
We will have better models.
A better idea what will be over the next 3 days.
Next...
I've seen people who hate the GFS love it.
But only when it nails a city with a landfall.
The moment it flip flops they make fun of it.
The moment it tries to impress the EURO
People love the GFS again.
Seriously the NHC needs to weigh in...
And everyone needs to watch the loops.
And understand the steering currents.
Great Loop.
Lots of variations there.
First it was here up above.
Then it was there down below.
The high is digging in....
And Barry will retrograde to the left.
It may form close to the coast.
It may move further into the warm GOM.
We will know soon enough.
Watch it and stop hyperventilating over every new model run.
It's about the storm.
Current radar.
Models (that change often)
The wide view.
I'll update when the NHC does their thing...
It's time to do their thing.
Spoiler Alert when done with the GOM...
...we will be tracking African Waves.
Please read if you have not done so.
Not much has changed except it's swimming.
Back later..
* * *
Going with Mike's middle squares.
They tell the story in brief.
Visual Cliff Notes.
There's a red level chance of development.
Zone is along the NE Gulf of Mexico.
Most tracks, but not all, take it West.
Last night GFS began her flip flop.
This morning the flip flop is aware for all to see.
GFS doesn't do much with 92L
It shows 92L has a huge rainmaker.
Spread out across the N rim of the GOM.
The EURO however intensifies it.
Some models intensify it well into hurricane.
GFS stubbornly sees no hurricane or tropical storm.
Blend the two that is what the NHC does often.
Outliers are out there.
After it has made "splash down" we can talk on it.
Currently it's up near the Florida Georgia Line.
You knew this was coming right?
Again this is the weak edge of the Atlantic High.
If the High was stronger the convection would be less.
Think of it as a Ring of Convection.
Oh opps that's Florida ... Cuba.
In about 3 weeks from now...
...remember this image above.
So let's look at 92L and other waves to wonder upon.
This loop will show you where 92L will appear.
Finally, eventually onto the scene.
Top left in the NE part of the GOM.
I want to say this fast about the ongoing discussion of how weird this set up is ... in that it's not that weird but it doesn't happen often. Note the NW coast of South America where thunderstorm complexes come off of Columbia regularly moving either West into the Epac or eventually up into the Caribbean Sea for possible formation. Over by Africa there is another large area or land and we watch tropical waves roll off into the Atlantic and over by the bump on the East Coast known as the Carolinas we see thunderstorm complexes that come off and often form into subtropical storms or North Atlantic hurricanes. It often happens that an upper, mid level low vortex in the summer enhanced by passing conditions blows up a large complex with an quasi sort of center and moves down into the Gulf of Mexico. Often they don't develop, sometimes they do. Especially when there has been a persistent High aloft as there has been clamped down over the Southeast low pressure can form to the South of said High Pressure. Yes, there is a huge Atlantic High Pressure area but that area is a bit weak on it's Western rim currently and it's very possible off the West Coast of Florida as the models have shown something thunderstorms will intensify, clump together like awkward salesmen at a Meet Up and try to get something going. The EURO seems potential cyclone activity and the GFS can't decide whether to go up to the cute guy and give him her business card .... it's a drama we expected because generally the GFS flip flops. It has been fine tuned not to flip flop as it's the new improved GFS that has been rebranded with a new logo of sorts and a new business card for the 2019 Hurricane Season but basically it's the same old GFS with a new hair cut and as hair usually does ...it grows out and goes back to the shape it best enjoys best. What can I tell you it is what it is and we know what it is so we take the flip flopping with grains of salt and perhaps that's good. Perhaps the GFS provides the balance we need for the King Euro that wasn't to intensify trouble and often swings back a bit to the GFS point of view. We know how this dance goes. So let's watch it today in real time. I'll update later today.
I want to point one thing out and that is if something forms it will stay away from High Pressures and move towards Lower Pressure and that is as basic as it gets. On any given day you can watch a high pressure map of the area around a system and note which way the system will move to take advantage of the best set up. A girl with high cheek bones and great eyes is going to play them up with make up and a girl with no cheek bones is going to try and make it look as if she has them. Sometimes you get a girl who refuses to put make up on and you find a guy who refuses to use his fanciest filter on a picture of the sunset and that's okay too. It is what it is and it will be what it will be. We are along basically for the ride so enjoy the ride!
Speaking of rides.
These July tropical waves have been going the distance.
You don't hear much about them as they have't developed yet.
If you have kids in Miami or Puerto Rico....
....you know they have reached their target.
My Family WhatsApp group looks like daily Armaggedon
Or as my daughter says the Mother Ship is back.
Sometimes they use humor to deal with the daily monsoons.
And those monsoons are upped in intensity.....
.... with every new passing wave.
You can also follow him on SrulyCooks.
He's kind of become famous on his own there.
My concern is that the Miami South Florida area...
...has been in the flow of each strong tropical wave so far.
Why?
Caribbean has strong shear this time of year.
So the Northern edge of the waves flare up by PR & Miami.
That could change as the shear in the Caribbean weakens.
Climo shows it weakening.
Shear in the GOM is weakening as witnessed by 92L
Miami has had a very hot, wet summer.
That also favors an October hurricane from the SW or S.
As this year is ahead of schedule I'd worry earlier.
The NHC puts out discussion every day.
No pictures, lots of words.
Informative words with clues.
First we have our lead wave.
Fired up near PR and Cuba.
Still firing after all this time.
Another wave approaches the Island.
It's got a bit of oomph there for July.
Another huge convective swatch (wave) Central Atlantic.
Wow check that beauty that came off of Africa.
Each wave juices up the atmosphere for the next.
Ever marinate steak?
It's priming the region for problems.
The SAL is to the North as always.
The waves enter Stage Right and eat up the SAL.
It's an incredible tropical ballet every year.
This year we are running ahead of schedule.
So soon those waves will temporarily develop.
DID YOU KNOW...
The EURO has been developing waves out there...
In July.
Eventually one does something worthy of the NHC to notice.
MJO is on it's way...
...so the MJO is watching.
I'm watching as are others.
But today we are obsessing over 92L
Because that's the player on the stage.
Let's look at Earthnull
92L above shows ... something near NE Florida.
Remember by the way we are nearing July 10th.
The date I said last month we would have something to watch.
July 10th has been my date for "things to watch"
And we are watching indeed.
Oh and by the way there's a small circulation off of Africa.
A bit too low for this time of year.
However it shouldn't really be there for this time of year.
Expect August to be Peak of the Season for CV waves this year.
It tightened up since last night if you were wondering.
And in the end if comes down to this.
Are the models handling this properly?
Which models has it down best?
What will 92L do?
Will the High Pressure did in from the East?
Will it push it West?
Will 92L find a place with weaker pressure and grab it.
Heading more to the North than West.
Think of this like Waze.
If the models see a traffic jam of High Pressure.
It reroutes 92L maybe Barry around the traffic jam.
It's that simple.
So again the models will be better tomorrow.
And if Recon goes in ...
...the data from the dropsonde will help the models.
We need a defined center for more better models.
Check out www.windy.com a bit and play with it.
Small little attempts to wrap small circulations.
In early July.
Over in the GOM the NHC has a real quandary.
Euro sees Barry.
Close to land making landfall.
And the GFS has reached deep down into it's soul...
...and today it sees nothing.
Same time, same place.
I'll update later.
Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram.
Follow me there for real time discussion.
Ps...will we be singing Barry Manilow songs soon?
Time will tell.
Does the GFS have to go to rehab again?
Time will tell.
Labels: 92L, Barry, discussion, music, Storm, tropical, tropics, Waves, weather
posted by BobbiStorm @ 6:05 AM
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