Updated! BARBARA in the EPAC... Forecast to Possibly Become Major. Tropical Update. July 4th Looks Like a Go For Now. August, September, October... When and Where? We All Wonder.
Sunday Evening Update
Tropical Storm Barbara.
Nice shape, form and forecast to become stronger.
Some models show her becoming a Major Hurricane.
That would become... well.... major!
We will see how the models verify over the short term.
And see what happens with the long term.
Barbara has aspirations it seems.
In other areas....
It is worth noting there is convection near the Yucatan.
Moving up into the Gulf of Mexico.
Watch how the area to the South rushes towards.......
....the stormy area to the North of it.
They dance a bit.
If falls apart as it's falling down.
Very impressive.
Change begins slowly in the tropics.
And then suddenly there's a suspicious area...
...or a hurricane named Barbara.
I'm in Baltimore tonight...
I've bitched a lot about Baltimore in the past.
I'm done bitching.
Had a delicious dinner.
Resting in a nice room.
Spent some quality time with my Mother-in-Law.
Going shopping tomorrow.
Drove the back roads through Maryland.
Northern Virginia near the Potomac.
Pretty farms, old homes and quaint restaurants.
You take each day of summer as it comes.
Same with the hurricane season.
Never let anyone tell you nothing will form.
Believe the odds are against it.
But tropics are always filled with surprises.
The convection dances where the shear is less.
What will happen down the road?
Probably not much.
But ain't got nothing else to watch so....
...watching that and watching Barbara shown below.
Barbara down to the left.
Small odd kinks in the wind barbs near the Yucatan.
My thoughts on Hurricane Season below.
One of the easiest ways to see what's happening is shown above.
NHC official nothing happening.
Satellite images of where there IS weather.
Mike is awesome at knowing what people want.
Obviously knows what I want.
It's a good time to show him your appreciation.
Buy a shirt, make a donation.
That goes for any site you love.
Money does make the world go round.
In these hot, dog days of summer.....
... everyone is in a mood.
Truth is so much we don't know.
Did you know that?
Okay I did but with my literature degree I know this stuff.
It's hot, it's summer. I'll call it stuff.
Some people love summer.
Others hate summer.
(Really)
I grew up in an eternal state of summer.
So not sure what all the big deal is about it.
There is no hurricane today in the Atlantic.
Barbara IS forming in the EPAC.
I mentioned it in the last blog.
EPAC took it's time starting.
Now it's doing it's thing.
The same will happen in the Atlantic.
I could go long today on a rant but I am not going to do that. Taking a bit of a vacation for the next day or so and that means watching the weather on I95 wherever I am vs the Mid Atlantic Region or the Yucatan. For all the newbies out there who scream "SHARK!!" every time someone mentions a statistic that is always in flux to try and predict hurricane develop know that water temperature and shear go up and down in heat and intensity every week or so as rarely do we build into a perfect stage set just right for hurricane season. If we did no one would be here and it would be all too predictable and boring. Boring as in ....there would be no discussion. Panic as in ......"oh my God it's gonna hit my town" and that is not how weather works. Weather is short term and climate is long term and it pays to know weather history on a personal level as much as it's important how to read a model or redo a model to make it have more pizzaz to get more viewers. Understanding the process and being able to compare it to other years is everything. Either you got it or you don't. I'll add in an out of the box ability to sniff out where development may occur and when it may happen that comes with years of studying satellite imagery, meteorology, oceanography and the history of hurricanes. Models are great and wonderful but they don't always catch rapid intensification and often miss small systems that now days get named faster than they used to so .... choose who you follow wisely.
That said...... this is the way it is in the tropics today.
Big flash of color down near the Yucatan.
The shear there is allowing it.
Understand things work in tandem....
...or they don't work.
Shear get's lighter closer in to Florida.
Eastern Gulf of Mexico.
Either that rain goes into the EPAC...
(moving on to the C storm)
Or it tries and get up into the GOM.
Shear in orange prevents waves from developing right now.
Let's look at the bigger picture.
That big orange blob is called SUMMER.
Summer up north brings derecheos.
And hot weather and pop up storms.
Summer storms.
Close up
Shear to the left and SAL to the right.
High pressure anchored in place for now.
Watch the waves they are fun to watch.
They are not going to knock your house down.
They aren't even gonna toss your trampoline anywhere.
They are waves and we watch them.
Sometimes a bit of a wave gets past the shear zone.
And get mix it up with local weather.
That's why we watch.
But short of that sort of surprise storm.
Not much is happening.
And that is normal.
July 4th Weekend should verify to be a money maker.
When beach towns don't have to shut down...
...for a sudden hurricane that's good.
My concerns are the following time periods.
But understand anything can pop up somewhere also.
Why? Because there is a flow to weather....
Flow as in things change sometimes suddenly.
Prevent defense often winds football games.
Sometimes prevent defense loses football games.
August should have hurricanes.
August 11th time frame.
I believe we are a good 2 to 3 weeks early this year.
All the seasons have been early this year.
Magnolias were burnt up by a heat wave.
Azaleas are flush and it's not July yet.
Flush and falling apart way too early.
Since the snow in November....
...and the heat in May.
Seasons are a bit off.
I'm concerned with Labor Day Weekend.
The period from 8/29 on through that week.
September 14th through the 18th.
Yes peak of the season but I'd circle it for now.
Maybe in pencil if you still have a pencil.
I do because I bought it thinking it was a pen.
Oops.
October 3rd and 4th bother me.
Note full moons and equinox times are always interesting.
Location of where these storms would make landfall are...
... for now too far out to see.
Nothing has formed.
Just the regular arguing over water temperatures...
...and El Nino .. No Nino... What's with that?
MJO...
Most love it.
Jim Williams is not a believer.
Around July 10th things should look different.
Worried on close in around Florida and Carolinas.
Eastern GOM tho Texas at some point needs to watch.
The High will send us storms at some point.
Need to watch those early fronts.
Until then it's hot and it's summer.
Over a year away from the Presidential Elections.
Much hot air being wasted but hey it's summer.
Everything in life has a yin and a yang.
No I'm not into that stuff it's an example.
Somewhere it's very hot.
Somewhere it's very cool.
Somewhere someone wants the other.
SAL to the left.
Waves coming off from the right.
It's hot on the East Coast.
Cold on the West Coast.
Bless those people here who understand weather.
Cranky.
Larry Cosgrove.
Bastardi.
Many others.
Mike who gets it intrinsically ....
Jim who is stubborn on what he believes.
So many others.
Sue who understands.
Anyways....... have a good weekend.
When you see a sale on hurricane stuff..
Buy the stuff.
You don't need to complicate things.
Maybe something will form around those dates.
I'm pretty sure something will.
Either way... come they will.
Because in August the water is hot.
IN late July shear begins to shift.
When to fronts start moving again?
It's summer.
Get a tan but use sunscreen.
Buy a tan if you want.
Do whatever you want to do and enjoy it.
If you do what you want most likely you will enjoy it.
Don't worry, be happy but prepare.
Listen to Jimmy Buffet
Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Instagram and Twitter
Ps........ there's a Mercury Retrograde coming July 7th.
If you're into that.
Sometimes computer stuff messes up.
Models might be off...
Who knows.
They often can be.
Do what you need to do and smile.
posted by BobbiStorm @ 7:46 AM
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