Hurricane Harbor: EPAC Tries. African Wave Tries to Flare Up. June too Soon? July Things Will Come Together. Water Vapor Loop Shows the Beginning of the Changes Coming.

This is an old school Water Vapor Loop.

Over the next few weeks you will see changes.

Everything flows, folds and is always evolving.

We are beginning the signature we see before things begin.

Despite Saharan Dust westbound waves fight their way West.

Moisture from the South is pushing North.

Systems coming of the East coast punch East.

At some point it becomes a clash zone.

Then we finally see what the High wants to do.

Watch the High over the SE dance back and forth.

The small Low off the coast of the Carolinas...

...finally gets picked up and sent out to sea.

The High goes West.......

The High moves into the GOM.

The High goes who knows...

Why this is so important is down the road when waves become viable candidates for names and fame and begin the process of waking people up and realizing we are going to have a hurricane season you better have a plan. Why and where will they go? They will go where the High Pressure allows them to go. Think of the High Pressure as the General in charge of the battlefield or the Aircraft Control Tower trying to watch them take off of Africa and attempt to make a landing at an airbase somewhere along the hurricane coast. Do this down the road named storm make landfall in South Florida or skirt the Florida coast or make it into the Gulf of Mexico turning North somewhere is all up to the High Pressure and where it is on any given day. If the High takes up a short term residence in the Gulf of Mexico and breaks apart where will that break form and will it leave Florida open to a landfalling hurricane? Or will it stay strong like some Science Fiction Force Field and protect Florida but not Texas? It's all about the High.

The devil is always in the details.

In the fine print.

The NHC puts out fine print every day.

And they put out maps.

Note the maps below in particular.

Nicely spaced out.

Tomorrow you see waves.

The Day after tomorrow you see waves.... but wait.

What's that Low doing there to the North.

A frontal boundary.

Watch that loop above again and see the High wiggle West.

It's an atmospheric dance.

You never know what you find on YouTube.

But you get the idea....

When one feature moves this way....

...another feature moves that way.

And the waves move like they are dancing in a Conga Line..

It's also about how strong these waves are and currently they are strong and well spaced apart. Note the discussion today from the NHC on their ongoing wave watch and tropical Atlantic conditions they put out every day. When the shear lessens as it does eventually and the SAL loses control and the MJO makes his moves on the dance floor .... watch out!

"land in Miami the air hot from summer rain"

Yeah this year's pattern concerns me.

This brings me to the reminder that's it's been unbearably hot in Miami the last few weeks and wet, wet and hot and the beautiful Atlantic Ocean is warming up as I type this and listen to Gloria sing and dance. You know that new video going around called Senorita? Love it. So Miami and a bit of LA all mixed together but remember.... it speaks of landing in Miami and feeling the heat. Over 70 Million people have watched this video that was just released. That's HOT!