A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!
Monday, August 19, 2019
Monday Morning Look at the Tropics. Wrightsville Beach... 97L Moving Fast Away From the Coast... GOM Questions. New African Waves. Tropics Been Flat... Having Problems Getting Spin Going.
97L with diminishing chances of development.
But look how far North it is now.
Moving fast as systems do in that part of the ocean.
Models below.
Note models show it around for a while.
That's questionable we will see soon.
Model intensities all over the place.
Normally you throw out the high.
Then you throw out the low.
In this case there is little common ground.
It either survives or dies fast.
Being that I live in North Carolina.
And being that 97L was nearby.
I went to visit it a spell.
The beach was dark and gray.
Don't let the colors fool you.
It was hot as blazes.
Barely a breeze ....
...though there were waves.
And far off in the distance was 97L
Moving it's way North up along the NC coast.
People were out and about.
Lifeguards working hard.
Kids playing.
Adults enjoying the beauty of the beach.
You get a feel when you are there for things.
It's definitely there and definitely tropical.
But it definitely hasn't done anything yet.
The guys on the pier said Saturday was stormy.
There were puddles everywhere ... some localized flooding.
But mostly it was just a "hi there how ya doing" trip for 97L
Just moving along up the coast.
This is an image from last night.
Not much has changed.
RED is NO.
Green is GO.
Note every wave gets to the Caribbean...
...flares up briefly then falls apart.
A sliver of low shear in the Bahamas.
A sliver in the Atlantic...
Can't remember the last time I saw so many slivers.
Check out the loop.
Despite waves staying alive....
...they have no where to go once they hit the shear wall.
It's not a friendly ocean just yet.
People love to talk on water temperature and SAL.
Shear is the real killer of any attempted development.
EPAC Tries. African Wave Tries to Flare Up. June too Soon? July Things Will Come Together. Water Vapor Loop Shows the Beginning of the Changes Coming.
This is an old school Water Vapor Loop.
Over the next few weeks you will see changes.
Everything flows, folds and is always evolving.
We are beginning the signature we see before things begin.
Despite Saharan Dust westbound waves fight their way West.
Moisture from the South is pushing North.
Systems coming of the East coast punch East.
At some point it becomes a clash zone.
Then we finally see what the High wants to do.
Watch the High over the SE dance back and forth.
The small Low off the coast of the Carolinas...
...finally gets picked up and sent out to sea.
The High goes West.......
The High moves into the GOM.
The High goes who knows...
Why this is so important is down the road when waves become viable candidates for names and fame and begin the process of waking people up and realizing we are going to have a hurricane season you better have a plan. Why and where will they go? They will go where the High Pressure allows them to go. Think of the High Pressure as the General in charge of the battlefield or the Aircraft Control Tower trying to watch them take off of Africa and attempt to make a landing at an airbase somewhere along the hurricane coast. Do this down the road named storm make landfall in South Florida or skirt the Florida coast or make it into the Gulf of Mexico turning North somewhere is all up to the High Pressure and where it is on any given day. If the High takes up a short term residence in the Gulf of Mexico and breaks apart where will that break form and will it leave Florida open to a landfalling hurricane? Or will it stay strong like some Science Fiction Force Field and protect Florida but not Texas? It's all about the High.
The devil is always in the details.
In the fine print.
The NHC puts out fine print every day.
And they put out maps.
Note the maps below in particular.
Nicely spaced out.
Tomorrow you see waves.
The Day after tomorrow you see waves.... but wait.
What's that Low doing there to the North.
A frontal boundary.
Watch that loop above again and see the High wiggle West.
It's an atmospheric dance.
You never know what you find on YouTube.
But you get the idea....
When one feature moves this way....
...another feature moves that way.
And the waves move like they are dancing in a Conga Line..
It's also about how strong these waves are and currently they are strong and well spaced apart. Note the discussion today from the NHC on their ongoing wave watch and tropical Atlantic conditions they put out every day. When the shear lessens as it does eventually and the SAL loses control and the MJO makes his moves on the dance floor .... watch out!
"land in Miami the air hot from summer rain"
Yeah this year's pattern concerns me.
This brings me to the reminder that's it's been unbearably hot in Miami the last few weeks and wet, wet and hot and the beautiful Atlantic Ocean is warming up as I type this and listen to Gloria sing and dance. You know that new video going around called Senorita? Love it. So Miami and a bit of LA all mixed together but remember.... it speaks of landing in Miami and feeling the heat. Over 70 Million people have watched this video that was just released. That's HOT!
Currently we have a beautiful wave.....
.... there too soon.
Will more like this one soon follow?
Later rather than sooner one will develop.
This one is trying despite the dry dust guy SAL.
Look at that bright red color down there.
What can that wave be thinking?
Things are evolving.
Maybe something close in spins up sooner rather than later.
Nah just waiting for it's ticket out of town.
But look at that new wave over Africa.
EPAC may be getting their first storm.
Usually you wait a week to ten days for the Atlantic.
I'd say before July 10th or around then we will be busier.
Until then...... shop like Barry or Chantal are coming to party.
Because trust me once they start forming.
2019 will never be the same.
She's great.
Miami girls know hot, humid and sexy.
Trust me... and they know to take hurricanes seriously
;)
Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram
Ps... did you really think you were going to get another video?
Summer Solstice 2018 - Flooding in Texas As Expected from No Name System - Mid Atlantic Heat & Weather. Tropical Thoughts.
Only real discussion today is how much rain Texas actually got from a system with no name that originated in the tropics as was briefly labeled Invest 91L. I like to call it #X91L as in today's world it seems everything needs a Hashtag. How much flooding there was will be evaluated today though late yesterday it was very sketchy in some areas and even if it doesn't have a name the result is the same. I'm also curious where the rain is going down the road and it seems it's going to where all the weather has gone as of late. Graphic below from Cranky on Twitter.
There has been much talk on social media about a cooler than average MDR (Main Development Region) and the possibility of El Nino coming on stronger later in the year. There is also some discussion on Kelvin Waves that help give pizzazz to tropical waves helping them develop being aligned in such as way as to help a few of the early westbound, tropical waves in a moisture starved part of the atmosphere swimming in cooler water. Time will tell. At some point the water will warm enough to support some development. The later a wave develops - if it develops - the further West it gets and the less likely it is to be a Fish Storm. The term "Fish Storm" for newbies means that they get stronger faster and tend to curve gracefully to the NW and swim out to sea like a fish. Waves that had problems developing in marginal conditions often can end up like Andrew in 1992 that didn't really develop until later, was almost deactivated and around where the Great Labor Day Hurricane spun up changed directions, tactics and intensified close in to a Category 5 Hurricane aiming for the Miami area. So understand each year and every set up in the Tropical Atlantic has it's own problems to worry on as the saying is so true in that it only takes 1 hurricane; especially a Camille or Andrew to wreck your world. This is 2018 and it is NOT 2017 and there will be less named storms, probably way less ACE and few years in history will compare to 2017 with regard to ACE and tropical misery.
I agree with Mike.
Each year stands on it's own.
Even below average years...
...produce Killer Hurricanes.
This should be an Average Year.
Mike @tropicalupdate (was he so smart to grab that Twitter Handle?) suggested last night on Twitter that people watch the video I posted below. It's a good video. Much of the information has been out there discussed constantly on Twitter, however Twitter leaves much to be desired and it's way better to listen to Phil Klotzbach explain his thoughts than to read them in parts on Twitter. Like Phil I love Twitter as it is a fantastic source for live reports of weather events in real time that provide us with good information (and discussion) faster than we were able to receive such information previously. As always you have to weed out the nonsense of fake information but it's very relevant and it gives us a new way of devouring and sharing information/knowledge. There were meteorologists years ago who studied hurricanes by reading ship logs and piecing together pieces of information to see the whole picture of what happened and where it happened. If the ship went down in the middle of the Atlantic there was no ship log to read and radio was not invented so there were no "last radio reports" to study to piece together what happened. There was a time before we had radar and a time before we had satellite imagery and a time before we were able to share live breaking weather events in real time as they are happening as we do in Twitter today. You can follow Phil on Twitter @philklotzbach.
I have great respect for Phil, but the only thing I want to say is that although we all look to the MDR for hurricane action and yes #ACE is highest when that part of the world has low shear and warm water with long tracking CV Hurricanes but disaster can strike and often does from hurricanes that form closer in and are more "Homegrown" sorts of trouble. So keep that in mind while speaking on the cooler water temperatures near Africa out in the MDR region of the Atlantic. To name a few Major Hurricanes that rocked our world that formed close in and the list is way longer that what is below... know that sometimes a storm that rapidly intensifies close to landfall is harder to prepare for or predict than a hurricane that has been heading WNW around a Bermuda High obviously set to make landfall in PR or Florida the way Hurricane Maria and Hurricane Irma did. And, few years will ever have as many hurricanes that could not develop without becoming Major Hurricanes. 2017 was a year to remember and study forever. I'm also adding that Phil is doing an awesome job keeping the memory and lifetime work alive that the incomparable Bill Gray began and his many students are continuing today.
You may want to Google the following historic hurricanes to see where they in fact formed and they did not form deep in the MDR region.
Camille
Great Labor Day Hurricane of 1935
Sandy
Katrina
Mitch
Hurricane Camille
Hurricane Katrina
Hurricane Sandy
Camille technically was the remnant of a CV wave that did not form. Camille formed in the Caribbean as did Sandy. Katrina formed off the coast of Florida (hitting Miami first as a hurricane before moving into the GOM) in the same area as the 1935 Hurricane. So understand on one hand the MDR is cooler now, it will warm up, but it will not produce the number of hurricanes that we suffered through in 2017. However, storms that form close in and rapidly intensify with less lead time to prepare and evacuate are their own breed of trouble. Sandy also slammed into Cuba before becoming the huge East Coast threat later delivering a large blow a good part of New Jersey and New York. So again remember data is interesting to study, but the bottom line is that you need to prepare no matter how much shear is there in the GOM today and how cool the water is in the MDR as things have a tendency to change after July 20th when the real part of the Hurricane Season normally begins.
Thank you.
So those are my thoughts on the Summer Solstice as we are officially into Summer even though we have been dealing with the heat for the last several weeks. On a playful let's have fun level I bought a new eye shadow palette from Cargo that is called Havana and is filled with tropical shades and well put together with names that reflect Havana and in general the tropics. I'm in Raleigh this year for the Summer Solstice. Often in the past I was in Key West visiting friends and even once in Seattle where the day is really, really long. This year I'm here so the closest I can get to tropical vacation is playing with my make up and listening to a Jimmy Buffett song.
Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter
Ps. Always be true to yourself. Whether you are an academic or a salesman be true to yourself. Whether you are a teacher or a life long student be true to yourself. Whether you are an artist who sings, dances or writes or a philosopher or brain surgeon be true to yourself. Enjoy the things you love and do what you love and share what you love with others... as long as you are trying to make the world a better place than how you found it. If you don't like the world the way it is... help make it better and if you don't like the ending of a movie..... get out there and make up your own story.
Cuba could be in play later in the 2018 Hurricane Season as could the Mid Atlantic region. Time will tell.... I'll be here blogging and sharing it all at Hurricanehabor.blogspot.com and on Twitter @bobbistorm.
Updated! PTC9 FORMS ... Race For the Name Harvey... Waiting on Recon. 3 Waves & An Area Near the Windward Passage Consisting of a Tropical Wave & ULL Anchored There ... The Road Ahead
Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Forms From 91L Forecast to become Harvey
Cone:
Take the time to read the discussion as it's well put together and explains the problems and potential of Tropical Storm Harvey.
Watches and warnings.
An example being their main models do not keep this feature and loses it in the Caribbean. However other modeling packages develop it into a hurricane and show other possible solutions. The NHC is walking a delicate line here and they can pencil things in now and outline then in bold marker later in the week. For now watches and warnings are up.
Good discussion out of NHC doing a good job giving the Islands heads up as PTC9 is forecast to become Tropical Storm Harvey and Hurricane Harvey further down the road. Based on satellite imagery and various products the NHC uses in addition to Hurricane Recon they have upgraded this wave to post watches and warnings for the places in it's path. As I said earlier and further down in this post the satellite presentation of 91L really showed it's potential. The image the NHC posted a short while ago before the upgrade.
Also you can see the "roll" going here below.
Worth taking a look at cities possibly in the path of TD9 forecast to be TS Harvey. That's a lot of cities spread throughout the Caribbean into Central America and Mexico. And might note includes places in Cuba on the North side of the cone. So pay attention over time as these change and the track becomes more firmed up.
ISLE OF PINES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4)
GUANTANAMO BAY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3)
Please keep reading if you have not. The Red Circle AKA Mustang Convertible definitely was worth getting the expected upgrade. The fact that they put it out before Recon is because they can as we now have Potential Tropical Cyclones (good idea if you are in the path) and as I have said on Twitter it is moving very rapidly West making a bee line for the Islands now already given an official heads up.
The big round circle is NOT PTC9
Also notice the stalled out front.
Tropical Wave and ULL
Then PTC9 aka Harvey and 92L waiting it's turn.
You can see 92L below in the blue line..
..up in the upper right tracks for Harvey.
What will be with 92L and the wave behind it? Good question. Note we are now discussing it on Twitter and it needs to be watched. On one hand it will help steer and shear 92L but it could also become a home grown problem for someone. It's so big it almost eclipses "Harvey"
Highlighted system of the day.
91L
90% chances for development.
Gets a visit from recon.
Harvey?
Goldilocks has escaped the 3 bears.
Cat 2 hurricane. Impressive late life.
Back at the tropical ranch...
Sticking with 91L currently.
And the color scheme of the day.
Yellow, Orange, Red.
You can see 91L leading the way.
92L following.
Recon it seems is going in today. No recon for Gert. But 91L headed into the Islands gets recon. What seems to be destined to be Harvey is getting a visit from recon today so it better put on it's best dancing shoes as we know they can be hard to please sometimes. And then sometimes not. TD4 found no love from the NHC. Will they give 91L the H name and put up cones for the Islands? Stay tuned.... I'll update in real time later today.
Let me introduce the players here.
Lead wave is 91L with a 90% chance of forming after the NHC looked at First Morning Visible. Definitely deserves capital letters, it's a THING. That's about as good as it gets with the NHC so we are obviously waiting on recon to make this call. It is forecast to form by a consensus of models but nothing big currently is forecast to happen. Another low rider, west bound into the Caribbean. Usually the Caribbean is dry and inhospitable but not this time of year. Things are not forming there, that's interesting to note, however they are cruising in and sometimes moving on straight into the Pacific. We are not expecting Harvey to be wild, but who knows down the tropical road. Just to get a name and a cone is pretty big so keep watching. I will say something for 91L it knew to take the low road, well traveled road and avoid the shear in the Atlantic so that's impressive. There's whispers it can eventually go where Franklin went before. Keep watching.
Behind 91L is 92L visible above but SAL is taking a bit of a bite out of 92L. 91L was born in easier times with less Sal about and you can see the difference. Below you can see Gert going to England to see the Queen while she's still in charge. A large convective mass that steals your attention around PR that we are ignoring for now. You can see small, well built 91L moving west and 92L on a sort of leash behind him but having problems following his lead. The real race here is for the name Irma not Harvey. The African wave that has not yet been designated 93L but will most likely be when they write Gert off could get the name and 92L could stay weak battling the area of convection and shear we are ignoring. Isn't ignorant bliss? Or not.. You can also see a front moving East across the United States and far to the North an even more impressive system is about to dip down that makes August feel more like September. Bring it on I say. I can almost smell Pumpkin Spice Latte when I walk into Starbucks. Not I'm not a fan of the drink, but it's a good measure of time moving on in the corporate world in which we live. Kroger has lawn ghosts (I kid you not) outside by the curb... white Casper the Ghost like lawn statues and ceramic pumpkin plant holders. And we have Cabo Verde Waves waiting on recon... feels like September.
92L below up close and scared.
Note the SAL to the North of 92L
When it gets past the SAL...
... a wall of shear is waiting.
You wonder why 92L doesn't just tuck it's head down and try to follow 91L westbound. What's odd here is that in many years that is what happens. They follow each other especially when they are this close and already in the Central Atlantic. Far to the East it's typical for one to normally develop fast and be pulled NW early on while a lead weaker wave continues west. This is usually the pattern. The tracks the models are showing sort of fight the typical scenario but this year has been, like last year, a weird year. The same models that play down 92L were hyping 92L a few days ago, and that's worth remembering. What the models put out, they can change, rearrange at any given time. So for now it's best to watch the systems on satellite imagery and wait until they develop a closed core and get good recon from dropsondes giving us hopefully better model output.
Behind 92L is a system that could be 93L
You never know for sure til it is.
Home Grown sometimes pops up.
Steals the name and the game.
You can see above the area we are ignoring just north of Hispaniola, 91L headed West into the Caribbean, 92L a bit further North trying to take on the SAL and a low latitude large wave.
91L is red and headed west, 92L is orange and headed WNW and supposedly the unnamed wave that is yellow at the top of the screen will eventually head NW. I'm not ready to buy what will happen to that wave as it's a long time off and it's a large wave that might end up with multiple centers or poor alignment before it even tries riding a motorcycle after what could be Irma (92L) in a tropical storm. Just too many variables going on ...
As for the models I'd also like to wait a bit before going long on what will or won't happen. Nothing is happening over the next few days. So enjoy the weekend, work on your hurricane plan, enjoy the Eclipse and keep watching the tropics. Note discussion below showing the problems that the wave closest to Africa (the yellow circle for now) that most are expecting to be 93L eventually if nothing else steals that designation closer in. The NHC does not paint a pretty picture in the short term. Let's wait and see where things go with regard to the big, large, huge African wave. Again, small systems like 91L can go where larger systems cannot. They can spin up faster, maneuver and get a job done faster. Large, lumbering areas of convection are more like big trucks that take longer to turn and to develop.
Note the word usage.
ENGULFING.
Designation on hold for now.
Can change anytime.
Stay tuned.
The last player here is the area we are ignoring that's an odd mix in it's own way of characters. A real drama going on there much closer in than the African Wave. In this case I will quote the NHC below because it's complicated.
A diffluent flow pattern between an ULL ANCHORED over S Georgia and a low centered near the Windward Passage is creating what looks like one heck of a tropical wave about to become a tropical storm. Looks can be deceiving. It's pretty to watch. It's going to knock 92L out for a bit and exhaust it while it tries to move WNW towards the Caribbean, Florida, the Bahamas and possibly the Gulf of Mexico. Some models just kill 92L off from shear. Time will tell. The "Shear zone" or "wall of shear" are words you will hear yet remember that embedded in that mess we are ignoring is a tropical wave. Interesting to watch with so many other factors on the map. As for the models check out www.spaghettimodels.com because he specializes in the spaghetti models ;)
Again it's really too early to pay much attention to any of them other than 91L that is projected to become Tropical Storm Harvey if recon can find a west wind and strong enough wind speed. Oh look...here's an image from Earthnull below.
Location: Miami, Raleigh, Crown Heights, Florida, United States
Weather Historian. Studied meteorology and geography at FIU. Been quoted in Wall Street Journal, Washington Post & everywhere else... Lecturer, stormchaser, writer, dancer. If it's tropical it's topical ... covering the weather & musing on life. Follow me on Twitter @ https://twitter.com/#!/BobbiStorm
