UPDATED 11 PM Tropical Storm Dorian. Invest 98 Drama. A Look at Hurricanes Haiti Didn't Kill and the 1893 Sea Isle Hurricane in Georgia.

50 MPH

Still moving Westbound.

So far very steady at 14 MPH Westbound.

Maybe tomorrow things will change.

But I'd think this will stay this way for a bit.

50 MPH... definitely looks stronger.

Earliest arrival of winds...

...find your favorite location.

I know if you live in Florida that looks scary.

Has to battle shear and Haiti when it gets there

Dominican Republic....

Could it stay South of Hispaniola?

It's small.... 

Don't blink.....

Let's see how Dorian is in the morning.

And as for Invest 98L ...

I'll talk on it when it gets a name.

For now it's not bothering anyone.

Though down the road...

Could this be Chantal the Remake?

I went to watch the sunset today...

...outside Savannah by the marsh.

Peaceful, beautiful

Dorian's doing it's thing.

I'm going to sleep.

Let's start over in the morning.

Sweet Tropical Dreams.

Overall, thunderstorm/convective envelope of #Dorian is expanding again, getting more circular. Dvorak estimates from SAB and TAFB are 3.0 and 3.5 respectively, somewhat constrained by time factors - excellent preso from NHC forecaster Jack Beven https://t.co/SRIkClWt07 pic.twitter.com/Rvc2HEkC0A

— Michael Watkins (@watkinstrack) August 26, 2019

This image above really says it all.

Top left near Florida we have Invest 98L

It shape shifted it's way North out over the Gulfstream.

Spoiler Alert the warm waters of there didn't help it much.

It's got convection today.

But it still lacks a closed signature.

Hard to find on the big earthnull image.

You can see the small system that is Dorian.

But you can barely make out Invest 98L

Remember the other day?

I posted an image and said it looked like the Loch Ness Monster.

It still does.

Lines up quite fine doesn't it?

I'm in Savannah.

I'm going to go over to the ocean.

Tybee Island... as close as I can get.

It may be a quiet trip or I'll take a ton of pics.

The reality is... until it does something it is what it is.

I think it is possible for it to develop.

And it's also possible it could bring strong weather far to the North.

Remember we talked on Newfoundland ... time will tell.

Strange things happen in the North Atlantic.

Chantal being a recent example.

Speaking of Canada.

On their big green IR satellite image below.

We see 98L yet....

...the moisture over Mississippi and Alabama.

Is stronger in ways.

Somewhere in that deep moisture plume....

....off the East Coast.

Erin may form.

As for Dorian their map is below.

A great map really.

So much info.

Latest satellite loop of #TS_Dorian - it is showing a fair bit of deep convection (coloured areas), which is necessary for strengthening - he is look the best his best ever. If not for the relatively dry and or dusty air, we would likely be looking at a much more serious cyclone. pic.twitter.com/ivjz9eD1t5

— 268Weather (@268Weather) August 25, 2019

I just want to say a few things here. Everyone likes to look at Haiti and the Dominican Republic as if they were put there by Mother Nature to be a wind break for South Florida. That's really not the way it works and yes the tall mountains there break apart a strong hurricane, but often they reform into enough energy to slam into the Florida Keys or the Florida coast or be pulled North up towards the Carolinas. They are not a guarantee and in this case Dorian is a nice storm but a weak storm and it wouldn't take much to take it apart. We've been to this tropical rodeo before and yet many storms manage to regroup or keep going as if they weren't aware they hit road kill on their way WNW. Georges below is that hurricane that ignored every discussion explaining how it was soon going to pull more to the NW and kept going WNW all the way into Key West, the Gulf of Mexico and the GOM coast so don't tell people hit hard by Georges in Key West not to worry because the mountains in Haiti are high and strong and will kill the storm. They usually do but in this case strong shear might kill it before it gets close enough to slam into the mountains. 

Then there was Jeanne.

A hurricane that looked as if it was on the ropes.

Dying, gasping, looping around in the Atlantic.

Then it found it's groove again and turned WEST.

And slammed into the Florida coast.

Just after Frances slammed into the same part of the coast.

These are just examples.

Dorian isn't Beryl but similar.

Dorian isn't Donna or Georges or Jeanne.

But showing you some weather history.

Not much more I can add.

I have to be somewhere soon.

I have a date with sunset somewhere...

...and visiting some people.

And keep this in mind.... 

... some small storms fall apart and then come back together.

There's a track for Harvey.

It was there then it wasn't there....

....then it was there again.

Weak storms go West often.

Sometimes waiting for their swan song.

It was one hell of a swan song....

I may update later tonight if something happens.

The weather here is almost cool and beautiful.

I was here a few weeks ago.

I thought I was going to pass out.

It was the hottest I can remember it in ages.

But now a cooler wind is blowing.

The sunshine is warm.

Barely any humidity.

Yet storms are off to the East..

Nice.... good to get away and play.

Went to a beautiful program that was set up today.

Good food, nice people, music, dancing.

Gotta go before the sunsets without me.

Thanks for your patience and keep watching ....

Not every storm that forms is meant to be a Cat 4.

Not every storm that forms is a deadly storm.

Each storm is different.

Each storm is beautiful in it's way.

Especially far out over the Atlantic....

...where it can't hurt anyone.

Sweet Tropical Dreams, 

Bobbistorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram.

Follow me there for real time information.

Ps... Since I'm here it's a good time to remind you of this storm.

Sorry for any typos... 

... will fix them later.

Truly on a bit of a vacation.

My Ancestors looked a lot like this ...

...they lived in Key West.

They were battling Yellow Fever in 1893...

And often the ship that went to Key West...

...put into port in Savannah.

There was no Miami then...

The damage was severe....

Many died.

Epic bad storm.

Note how similar that track is to Georges...

...except higher up.

Tracing around the high pressure.

Something to think on ... 

...enjoy those weak storms like Dorian.

This is why my Grandma said....

...worry on the storms that go up over the Islands.

Okay, I'm back in my hotel room resting up a bit before going out later. Visiting friends in Savannah and taking a one last "summer vacation" of sorts and figured Invest 9L not doing much yet and with Dorian moving steadily West at 14 MPH today was a good day to get away and check out other things besides the visual imagery.

98L seems bonded to the trough reminding me very much of the other Inves that didn't make it beyond merging with the frontal boundary. Again this is a pattern we have going on and in some ways we are lucky, but as we move towards September we may run out of luck.

As the sun goes down on 98L it is still not a named entity.

You can see it's weak symbol below on the water vapor loop.

Pale Green off the Florida Georgia coast.

Dorian on the other hand has a visible signature.

It basically says "I'm a Tropical Storm!"

King Neptune seems to be staring down at it...

I can hear Neptune saying "it is what it is"

As for Dorian... it's really amazing that Dorian exists as she has been traveling the whole way through a dusty environment. It's a fighter that's for sure. One one level it's weak and small and yet again on another level in theory it wasn't expected to be there. The GFS loved it early on, the EURO ignored it and then they took turns liking it or unfriending it. So much weather drama here. Shear has been just low enough that it has been able to maintain it's balance.

Crowd Sourcing & Civilian Volunteers After Hurricanes One of the Stories of 2017.

One of the nice things about keeping the Jewish Sabbath, as I do, is that it gives me some time offline to catch up on reading things that I meant to read yet got lost in the busy every day pace of my world both on and offline during the rest of the week. Facebook feeds swallow up time faster than water rising in Hurricane Sandy. On Shabbos with a cup of tea and a snack I can rest on the comfortable sofa and read everything from saved articles such as the one above to leafing through encyclopedias to do some reading up on something. The article above was sent out in a year end review of 2017 and caught my attention as aside from being Hurricane related it told the story I heard before of a friend's brother who helped in the rescue of a sweet older woman. The nephew of the man in the rescue is a cute little boy who talked a blue streak to me this past Sukkos in his Sukkoth about the flooding in Houston where his Grandparents and family lived. I remembered when this was happening in real time I felt that this should be the real story of 2017. The way the Network of Social Media was used by Civilian Volunteers to help save people in real time during Hurricane Harvey. Maybe it just says something larger than life about the people of Texas .... but I like to think that it's human nature rising to the top doing good deeds to make the world a better place.

2017 Hurricane Season.

Crowd Sourcing to save lives.

Civilian Volunteers

https://www.washingtonpost.com/national/cajun-navy-races-from-louisiana-to-texas-using-boats-to-pay-it-forward/2017/08/28/1a010c8a-8c1f-11e7-84c0-02cc069f2c37_story.html?utm_term=.48feccfab9ff

I get tired of politics and agendas sometimes. There was a time we liked a little spin with our news but these days the spin is enough to make you dizzy before you barely get to the first commercial on the news.  If I was going to name the Person of the Year it would be the EVERYDAY PEOPLE who VOLUNTEERED and helped in the aftermath of hurricanes this year. The Cajun Navy that mobilized instantly using various social media platforms to get into flooded regions and get people out of homes that were going under water rapidly. Groups such as Chabad in Houston that were dealing with their own homes being flooded going out on search and rescue missions to help where help was needed. The sheer scope of the historic flooding in Hurricane Harvey put a huge dent into the normal fast response we expect after a hurricane. When such a large area is affected in disasters such as Katrina and Andrew the system begins to break down. But this year in particular the civilian responders jumped in when flood waters had already swallowed up their homes and the people of Houston got into their boats, trucks and waded personally into the water to help save lives in any way they could and they deserve an award. 

If you read the story of the 77 year old woman in Houston you will find out she called her son in England to tell him that flood waters had entered her 2nd flood apartment and she didn't know what to do. He called a friend in Chabad locally in England to ask if they knew someone in Houston and of course someone did and .....they put out a plea on the community WhatsApp group and immediately my friend in Raleigh's brother who lives in  Houston went out with a few volunteers to rescue the woman. More wonderfully, his wife Baila insisted she stay by them in their home for a month until she could figure out where to go and what to do as their home thankfully only had some ceiling leaks and minor damage. Stories such as this one were repeated across the area in real time as people called family, friends and clergy asking for help and again because of social media groups such as WhatsApp the message was put out in real time to a large amount of people. 

Social Media and Crowd Sourcing to me... was the game changer. Often older people trapped in homes with their ceiling falling in on them or flooding rising into their homes feel panicked and don't know where to go ... other than trying 911 and waiting to be added to the list or they call their family. 

http://lubavitch.com/news/article/2076153/Emerging-From-the-Flood-Waters-True-Kindness.html

This really begain in 2016 during Hurricane Matthew a man taking video with a drone led to the rescue of someone's brother who was watching in real time as flood waters were rising fast into his home.  During the 2017 Hurricane Season this style of self sacrifice and good will took that story to a much larger, wider level.

Amazingly a man and his dog were both saved.

Social Media being a game changer.

http://abc11.com/weather/drone-social-media-help-save-man-dog-trapped-in-flood/1550720/

The victory of human nature over Mother Nature this past summer was one of the beautiful stories to come out of the tragic flooding in Harvey and the devastation across a wide area from Irma. Many places were hit hard this year and abroad from Puerto Rico to small islands few remember the name of are still reeling while we go about our every day life in America celebrating the coming of 2018. What will 2018 bring this Hurricane Season? It's safe to say more of the same ..... unless something major breaks the pattern of Mother Nature on a rampage. This year's epic Hurricane Season has given way to epic, record breaking cold temperatures as shelters and volunteers are racing to help those in need. Locally in Raleigh a volunteer group began giving out blankets and warm drinks to homeless people who didn't want to go into a shelter. You do what you can when you can to help who you can...

Sometimes it really does take a village to help save a life. It's one thing to watch the story on the Nightly News or CNN Live and another to get a personal request in your WhatsApp feed that a woman down the block from you is about to drown in flood waters in her 2nd floor apartment and needs help. It only takes a few moments in real time in a busy WhatsApp feed to figure out who has a boat, who can find a few strong men (in the case of Chabad ...ex Israeli soldiers) to get to her and get her out to safety fast. 

Crowd Sourcing + Civilian Volunteers.

So that's my thought on the 2017 Hurricane Season. People helping people, giving time and supplies when needed or giving a donation online. It only takes a minute... it only takes a bit of time. The world has changed so fast that I can send a child money on an App in my phone faster than than I can edit this blog post and yes sometimes I get presents for my birthday just as fast. Fast can be good sometimes .. especially when flood waters are rising or someone's roof just blew away or someone watching their Twitter Feed recognizes their brother's house going under water and contacts the person who tweeted to get to their brother fast.

Something to think on...

With prayers for a safe, happy 2018 for everyone reading this and a request to dress accordingly this New Year's Eve. Flip flops may be find in Miami but if you are in New York City... bundle up it's going to be an epic cold New Year's Eve.

Besos BobbiStorm

http://www.chabad.org/library/article_cdo/aid/814118/jewish/Charity-Tzedakah.htm

https://www.npr.org/2017/12/28/574166438/in-houston-thousands-remain-displaced-as-harvey-recovery-continues

Major Hurricane Irma and the Ridge.. Models, Historical Hurricanes and Extremely Severe Weather in Raleigh with Tornado Warnings..Thank You Harvey Remnants.

Irma. Category 3 Again.

Eye wall replacement cycle over.

The map I like for you to pay attention to..

 If you are in the shaded area of this grid you need to carefully pay attention to the storm even if you are far out from where the storm is as it's the best measure of who needs to worry vs watch. Wind probs are as far North as Ponce, PR and down by Barbados. Note they correlate to the map above from the NRL and that is why I tell you to pay attention to that map.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIAPWSAT1+shtml/012050.shtml?

Donut shape of Irma.

Cat 3.

The High has become to dig in...

The Westward Motion has begun.

Watch for that WSW dip.

Very good discussion at 5 Phttp://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT1+shtml/012050.shtml

Please click and read it for yourself. It's better to read this discussion and get familiar with it than what every person scared on Facebook says about Irma. It's kind of like rumor control. It's the truth vs hype. The Cone is shown below. Note at any point the High can push it more to the West than this cone shows currently. Easy to look at it and say it's going to curve up to the Carolinas but again it depends on the High.

Models.

I just don't want to focus on models today.

Sunday is my day for Model Discussion.

You get the idea..........

....it's coming this way.

You can see Irma below...

..as well as what I'm dealing with as I type.

Yeah.. Look at Inland Harvey.

Just as problematic as always.

You can see Irma out there.

Far away.

Harvey is still causing problems here.

Close up radar of my area.

I'm writing this as Raleigh is under siege from extremely severe weather from the remnants of Havey mixing it up with a cold front that is trying to move South. The mixing the air has caused (and this is a so far list):

Flooding
Hail the size of baseball (not common in NC)
Tornado on the ground
Thunder, lightning.
Heavy Rain.
RDU closed Friday night at the start of Labor Day Weekend.
2 Active Tornado Warnings.
Structures with roof collapse.
Trees down.
Since I typed 2...there are now 3 Tornado Warnings (i type fast)
Huge Power Outages.

There was discussion we would get bad weather but the remnants would go to the North but seems as always Harvey makes his own decisions.

For those of you playing Hurricane Poker a Big Ridge beats an Upper Level Low. A Big Ridge is forecast to build to the North of Irma keeping her Westbound ... until the edge of the Big Ridge. That is the basic steering currents of every long tracking Atlantic Hurricane born in Cabo Verde. Add in the possibility of a trof or low (you'll hear both terms) over North America and the final scene is yet to be written in this weather drama. The players are there and it's a game of improvise in ways as the atmosphere is fluid and there are no dress rehearsals. It plays out in real time and the cities that do not get Irma get a rose and get to exhale and further upstream people worry and prepare.

The cost of gasoline has gone up as predicted by Harvey hitting an area rich in oil, gas and messing up the Colonial Pipeline. Oddly Hurricane Harvey took a bite out of the Labor Day Weekend as many have decided to stay closer to home. A long ride down to the beach is no longer in the cards for many. Several people interviewed on TV today said they feel they should stay close to home and maybe think on how to prepare in case another hurricane makes landfall. There are two types of people. If we are going to get washed away in a hurricane we may as well go party today and those who go shopping FINALLY for food, batteries, medicine and things they may need in case a hurricane really makes landfall near their town. Which kind are you?

People from Florida up to Maine are nervously eyeing Hurricane Irma, back to being a Major Hurricane again, and wondering where she will go if she does not go out to sea. I'm pretty sure survivors of Andrew, Hugo and Fran will to to church and temple this weekend and say a prayer it stays away from land. People who have been there, know what it means to be there...

I want you to look at the 3 hurricanes below. It is very possible that Irma does something like they did in it's own unique way. I have to post this before we lose power as our lights are flicking. No proofing, sorry but it's crazy here in the Raleigh general area. So yeah, tracks like those below could be analogs for Irma.

My TV station just lost connection with their reporters.

Stay tuned. 

I'll be back. 

Rather than worry... prepare.

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter

Major Hurricane Irma and the Models. Hurricane History Lesson on the 1960s.

Tropics Friday Morning Above.

Harvey on the move...

Cat 3 Irma moving West.

Possibly Jose behind her.

Close up look at Irma.

Note presence of dry air to it's North

Beautiful storm.

Looks more like a Cat 2 above.

Cat 2 Canes are most beautiful.

I'm talking structure wise...

Putting Irma in perspective.

Now we see the wider picture.

Again look at the dry air to it's North.

(little white dots to newbies)

Still a long way to go.

And Irma could go a variety of places.

Keep it in perspective.

Models below.

Nice product Mike added to his site.

GFS and EURO together at last.

http://spaghettimodels.com/

From :

http://weathernerds.org/

Basically everyone from the Yucatan to the Carolinas in the longer term need to keep an eye on Irma. Beyond that time period in extra long range the East Coast of the US. In the short term the islands really need to pay close attention. Because of the forecast dip to the WSW or even just South of West in reality Irma ends up lower than she would otherwise. Because the High pressure is forecast to dig in, push down on Irma her response is to adjust her forward motion and move a bit more to the south of due west.  This is not so rare in long tracking CV hurricanes. They have a slight motion south of due west, when the high expands. Hurricane Dora in 1964 is an excellent example of how a hurricane responds to the movements of High Pressure. Early on Dora took a slight dip WSW as High Pressure pressed down on her. She kept cruising along and then the High took an unfortunate trip further West and pushed Dora into the Jacksonville area for a rare hit on Jax. Eventually it went out to sea with an obvious front. Dora went down in history for many things; one being a long tracking storm since it's departure from Africa to the North Florida area. 

Note that's a similar bend left as Andrew.

This is an an example of why we watch the High.

As much as we pray for cold fronts.

We watch every fluctuation of the High.

The placement of the High this week...

...will be mirrored by Irma's movements.

This leads us back to the models and Hurricane Irma. The models change and update every six or twelve hours depending on the model. Some models update faster and some make us wake and bite our fingernails waiting to see if there will be some change when they finally strut their stuff late at night when only the more dedicated wait up to see what they will show us on the last model run. And what they show us can change on the next model run. To quote Shakespeare...do not swear by the models, they change constantly especially far out when a storm is closer to Africa than Puerto Rico. And, I use PR as an example as it may be dealing with Irma in some way down the line. There is no hard and set line on Irma's final track; at some point there may be a line on it in Vegas where people will bet on anything. I'm not a gambler, other than once in a blue moon buying a lotto ticket, but if I was I would not bet the farm on Irma making it to the East Coast as percentage wise most hurricanes that form where Irma has formed go out to sea. But it's the ones that do not that live in infamy and in our collective memories.

Some decades are known for extreme hurricane action and Hurricane Dora lived in the Swinging 1960s when hurricanes happened often in America as they found a way to make it across the pond and into landfall history.  The map below is the year of 1964 and you can discern many things from that map. One is that many originated near Africa and most of those went out to sea. Dora did not go out to sea until after taking a rare track across an area that usually feels safer than most along the Florida coast. Cleo made a similar lower track across the Atlantic first tasting blood in the Caribbean leaving a high death toll. It also is a storm to watch historically with regard to the long range projections for Irma. The track is shown below as well. Again you will see the movement of the High is shown by the actual track of Cleo as if she simply traced the high as she moved about.

Cleo.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Cleo

This is why many storm chasers, trackers and forecasters talk on the 1960s. It was a decade to remember from Donna in 1960 to Camille in 1969. It's been quiet times in the tropics of late as El Nino was on the scene and reigned as King for a several years. We tend to forget in quiet years that hurricanes along the East Coast happen. We look back at Sandy as if it was a long time ago and a benchmark of sorts. Many think those days of multiple landfalls are gone and most hurricanes will simply form and go quietly out to sea. Wrong; it's just the way our minds work and we remember the recent past more than we remember the whole spread of hurricane history. 

The crazy 1940s where some sort of hurricane was expected to form and drench South Florida every year. My father went to the UM and lived on Miami Beach often and every year he had to evacuate for a summer hurricane. One year the University insisted students living on Miami Beach not stay and offered them rooms near the airport by some sort of zoo their students used. The storm caused massive flooding inland and after that he stayed in his rented room on Miami Beach happier than deal with inland flooding. We will talk about that famous 1940s hurricane in another blog soon as some have pointed to it as an analog storm for Irma.

Back to Irma.

She's dancing out there today.

That loop deserves the right sound track.

This is the issue.

Not the models.

But the forecast strength.

Note discussion below:

The 5 Day Forecast.

140 MPH.

WOW.

If that doesn't wake you up you're not alive.

It's stronger than caffeine.

Often the NHC changes like the models.

So don't bet on it but...

... wow. 

Bottom Line.... stay tuned. Watch the progress over the next few days before you lose any sleep on Irma and stay on top of your hurricane plans should your city move into this five day window. For now she is far away. Never forget history, we learn from history and sometimes it repeats or comes close to repeating. Double landfalls such as Betsy and Andrew across South Florida into Louisiana are rare but happen as a strong High breathes and expands outside it's normal boundaries and pushes a hurricane further west than most that go out to sea. With regard to Donna, it moved into the GOM and then back across Florida with a cold front. 

I'll be back later with another update later today. Thanks for reading and for sharing your thoughts on Twitter and being patient while I was dealing with ridiculously slow "free wifi" at JetBlue's terminal at JFK.  But it was a wonderful trip on many levels and a good chance to breathe a bit myself as I was up late and worried on Harvey as it moved towards the Texas coastline as I knew... we knew... this was not one that was simply going to go along and follow the more common track out of the BOC into Mexico.  Nope... and Irma may not go out to sea, even if most hurricanes where she is currently do go out to sea. 2017 seems to be one of those seasons.

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter

Ps... I'll be back later today with another update.