UPDATED 11 PM Tropical Storm Dorian. Invest 98 Drama. A Look at Hurricanes Haiti Didn't Kill and the 1893 Sea Isle Hurricane in Georgia.

50 MPH

Still moving Westbound.

So far very steady at 14 MPH Westbound.

Maybe tomorrow things will change.

But I'd think this will stay this way for a bit.

50 MPH... definitely looks stronger.

Earliest arrival of winds...

...find your favorite location.

I know if you live in Florida that looks scary.

Has to battle shear and Haiti when it gets there

Dominican Republic....

Could it stay South of Hispaniola?

It's small.... 

Don't blink.....

Let's see how Dorian is in the morning.

And as for Invest 98L ...

I'll talk on it when it gets a name.

For now it's not bothering anyone.

Though down the road...

Could this be Chantal the Remake?

I went to watch the sunset today...

...outside Savannah by the marsh.

Peaceful, beautiful

Dorian's doing it's thing.

I'm going to sleep.

Let's start over in the morning.

Sweet Tropical Dreams.

Overall, thunderstorm/convective envelope of #Dorian is expanding again, getting more circular. Dvorak estimates from SAB and TAFB are 3.0 and 3.5 respectively, somewhat constrained by time factors - excellent preso from NHC forecaster Jack Beven https://t.co/SRIkClWt07 pic.twitter.com/Rvc2HEkC0A

— Michael Watkins (@watkinstrack) August 26, 2019

This image above really says it all.

Top left near Florida we have Invest 98L

It shape shifted it's way North out over the Gulfstream.

Spoiler Alert the warm waters of there didn't help it much.

It's got convection today.

But it still lacks a closed signature.

Hard to find on the big earthnull image.

You can see the small system that is Dorian.

But you can barely make out Invest 98L

Remember the other day?

I posted an image and said it looked like the Loch Ness Monster.

It still does.

Lines up quite fine doesn't it?

I'm in Savannah.

I'm going to go over to the ocean.

Tybee Island... as close as I can get.

It may be a quiet trip or I'll take a ton of pics.

The reality is... until it does something it is what it is.

I think it is possible for it to develop.

And it's also possible it could bring strong weather far to the North.

Remember we talked on Newfoundland ... time will tell.

Strange things happen in the North Atlantic.

Chantal being a recent example.

Speaking of Canada.

On their big green IR satellite image below.

We see 98L yet....

...the moisture over Mississippi and Alabama.

Is stronger in ways.

Somewhere in that deep moisture plume....

....off the East Coast.

Erin may form.

As for Dorian their map is below.

A great map really.

So much info.

Latest satellite loop of #TS_Dorian - it is showing a fair bit of deep convection (coloured areas), which is necessary for strengthening - he is look the best his best ever. If not for the relatively dry and or dusty air, we would likely be looking at a much more serious cyclone. pic.twitter.com/ivjz9eD1t5

— 268Weather (@268Weather) August 25, 2019

I just want to say a few things here. Everyone likes to look at Haiti and the Dominican Republic as if they were put there by Mother Nature to be a wind break for South Florida. That's really not the way it works and yes the tall mountains there break apart a strong hurricane, but often they reform into enough energy to slam into the Florida Keys or the Florida coast or be pulled North up towards the Carolinas. They are not a guarantee and in this case Dorian is a nice storm but a weak storm and it wouldn't take much to take it apart. We've been to this tropical rodeo before and yet many storms manage to regroup or keep going as if they weren't aware they hit road kill on their way WNW. Georges below is that hurricane that ignored every discussion explaining how it was soon going to pull more to the NW and kept going WNW all the way into Key West, the Gulf of Mexico and the GOM coast so don't tell people hit hard by Georges in Key West not to worry because the mountains in Haiti are high and strong and will kill the storm. They usually do but in this case strong shear might kill it before it gets close enough to slam into the mountains. 

Then there was Jeanne.

A hurricane that looked as if it was on the ropes.

Dying, gasping, looping around in the Atlantic.

Then it found it's groove again and turned WEST.

And slammed into the Florida coast.

Just after Frances slammed into the same part of the coast.

These are just examples.

Dorian isn't Beryl but similar.

Dorian isn't Donna or Georges or Jeanne.

But showing you some weather history.

Not much more I can add.

I have to be somewhere soon.

I have a date with sunset somewhere...

...and visiting some people.

And keep this in mind.... 

... some small storms fall apart and then come back together.

There's a track for Harvey.

It was there then it wasn't there....

....then it was there again.

Weak storms go West often.

Sometimes waiting for their swan song.

It was one hell of a swan song....

I may update later tonight if something happens.

The weather here is almost cool and beautiful.

I was here a few weeks ago.

I thought I was going to pass out.

It was the hottest I can remember it in ages.

But now a cooler wind is blowing.

The sunshine is warm.

Barely any humidity.

Yet storms are off to the East..

Nice.... good to get away and play.

Went to a beautiful program that was set up today.

Good food, nice people, music, dancing.

Gotta go before the sunsets without me.

Thanks for your patience and keep watching ....

Not every storm that forms is meant to be a Cat 4.

Not every storm that forms is a deadly storm.

Each storm is different.

Each storm is beautiful in it's way.

Especially far out over the Atlantic....

...where it can't hurt anyone.

Sweet Tropical Dreams, 

Bobbistorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram.

Follow me there for real time information.

Ps... Since I'm here it's a good time to remind you of this storm.

Sorry for any typos... 

... will fix them later.

Truly on a bit of a vacation.

My Ancestors looked a lot like this ...

...they lived in Key West.

They were battling Yellow Fever in 1893...

And often the ship that went to Key West...

...put into port in Savannah.

There was no Miami then...

The damage was severe....

Many died.

Epic bad storm.

Note how similar that track is to Georges...

...except higher up.

Tracing around the high pressure.

Something to think on ... 

...enjoy those weak storms like Dorian.

This is why my Grandma said....

...worry on the storms that go up over the Islands.

Okay, I'm back in my hotel room resting up a bit before going out later. Visiting friends in Savannah and taking a one last "summer vacation" of sorts and figured Invest 9L not doing much yet and with Dorian moving steadily West at 14 MPH today was a good day to get away and check out other things besides the visual imagery.

98L seems bonded to the trough reminding me very much of the other Inves that didn't make it beyond merging with the frontal boundary. Again this is a pattern we have going on and in some ways we are lucky, but as we move towards September we may run out of luck.

As the sun goes down on 98L it is still not a named entity.

You can see it's weak symbol below on the water vapor loop.

Pale Green off the Florida Georgia coast.

Dorian on the other hand has a visible signature.

It basically says "I'm a Tropical Storm!"

King Neptune seems to be staring down at it...

I can hear Neptune saying "it is what it is"

As for Dorian... it's really amazing that Dorian exists as she has been traveling the whole way through a dusty environment. It's a fighter that's for sure. One one level it's weak and small and yet again on another level in theory it wasn't expected to be there. The GFS loved it early on, the EURO ignored it and then they took turns liking it or unfriending it. So much weather drama here. Shear has been just low enough that it has been able to maintain it's balance.